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Price analysis 10/2: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL, ADA, DOGE, TON
Bitcoin and select altcoins are looking strong at the start of October, but will the flashpan bullish momentum last?
The United States…
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Bitcoin and select altcoins are looking strong at the start of October, but will the flashpan bullish momentum last?
The United States legislators in the House and Senate came to a temporary agreement on Sep. 30 and averted a government shutdown for 45 days. This news could have acted as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s (BTC) sharp rally on Oct. 1. Additionally, the historically strong performance of Bitcoin in October could have boosted sentiment further.
The U.S. stock markets are also in a sweet spot in October. Data from the Stock Trader’s Almanac shows that the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has risen by an average of 0.9% in October, between 1950 and 2021. However, it does not mean that the bulls can be carefree because the stock market weathered one of its worst declines in the Black Monday crash in October 1987.
While a short-term up-move is possible in the cryptocurrency markets, it is unlikely to start a runaway rally. Higher levels are likely to witness profit-booking as the skyrocketing U.S. dollar index (DXY) could keep the bulls on the edge of their seats.
What are the important overhead resistance levels in Bitcoin and altcoins that may attract sellers? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
S&P 500 Index price analysis
The S&P 500 Index plunged below the formidable support at 4,325 on Sep. 22. That completed a bearish head and shoulders pattern, indicating the start of a downward move.
Usually, the price turns around and retests the breakdown level, which in this case is 4,325. That happened on Sep. 29. The neckline of the setup is likely to witness a tough battle between the bulls and the bears.
If the price turns down and breaks below 4,238, it will indicate that bears are in control. That could accelerate selling and the index may dive to the pattern target of 4,043.
Any recovery attempt is likely to face selling at 4,325 and then at the 20-day exponential moving average ($4,370). A break above this resistance will be the first sign of strength. The index could then ascend to the downtrend line.
U.S. dollar index price analysis
The U.S. dollar index has witnessed a scintillating run in the past several days. The bulls propelled the price above the overhead resistance of 106 on Sep. 26, indicating the start of a new uptrend.
Sellers tried to pull the price back below the breakout level of 106 on Sep. 29 but the long tail on the candlestick shows solid buying at lower levels. The bulls will try to flip the 106 level into support. If they are successful, the index could rally to 108.
The bears are unlikely to surrender easily. They will try to drag the price back below 106 and then the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do that, it will trap the aggressive bulls. The index may then descend to the 50-day simple moving average ($103).
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin surged above the immediate resistance of $27,500 on Oct. 1 and then stretched the rally above $28,143 on Oct. 2. The ease with which $28,143 was conquered shows that more is likely to come.
The bulls will try to push the price to $31,000 where they are likely to encounter solid resistance from the bears. If the price turns down sharply from this level, it will suggest that the BTC/USDT pair remains stuck inside the large range between $31,000 and $24,800.
The first support on the downside is $28,143 and then the 20-day EMA ($26,862). If the price slips back below $28,143, it may trap the aggressive bulls. That could then pull the price to the 20-day EMA. Sellers will have to yank the price below this level if they want to seize control.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) pierced the 50-day SMA ($1,652) on Sep. 29 and followed that up with another sharp rally on Oct. 1. That pushed the price to the overhead resistance at $1,746.
The 20-day EMA ($1,644) has turned up and the relative strength index (RSI) is above the 64 level, indicating that the bulls are in command. That enhances the prospects of a rally above $1,746. If that happens, the ETH/USDT pair will complete a double bottom pattern. This setup has a target objective of $1,959.
Sellers will make every effort to halt the recovery at $1,746. They will have to drag the price back below the moving averages to weaken the positive momentum. The pair may then extend its stay inside the range for some more time.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) turned down from the 50-day SMA ($216) on Sep. 29 and 30 but found support at the 20-day EMA ($214). This suggests a positive sentiment where dips are being purchased.
The moving averages are on the verge of a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that bulls have the edge. A break and close above $220 will suggest the start of a new uptrend. The BNB/USDT pair could first rally to $235 and subsequently to $250.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from $220, the bears will again attempt to tug the pair below the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, it will indicate that the consolidation may extend for a few more days.
XRP price analysis
XRP (XRP) rose above the symmetrical triangle pattern on Sep. 29 and the bulls held the retest of the breakout level on Sep. 30. This suggests that bulls are back in the game.
Buyers will next try to drive the price to the overhead resistance at $0.56. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a rally above it could indicate the start of a new uptrend toward the pattern target of $0.64.
On the other hand, if the price turns down from $0.56, it will suggest that the bears have not given up and they continue to sell on rallies. That could restrict the XRP/USDT pair inside the range between $0.41 and $0.56 for a while longer.
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) blasted above the $22.30 overhead resistance on Oct. 1, indicating that the bulls are on a comeback.
The sharp up-move has pushed the RSI into the overbought space, suggesting that the rally may soon face resistance. The bears may attempt to stall the recovery at $25.50 and then again at $27.12. If the price turns down from this level, it will signal that the $14 to $27.12 range remains intact.
The important support to watch on the downside is the 20-day EMA ($20.50). Sellers will have to yank the SOL/USDT pair back below this level to weaken the bullish tempo.
Related: BTC price knocks on $28.5K as trader says Bitcoin 'reeks of disbelief'
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) soared above the downtrend line and the 50-day SMA ($0.25) on Oct. 1, invalidating the developing bearish descending triangle pattern.
Generally, the failure of a bearish setup is a positive sign as bulls who have been waiting on the sidelines jump in to buy. However, before that, the price may turn down and retest the breakout level.
If the level holds, it will signal that the bulls have flipped the downtrend line into support. The ADA/USDT pair could then start an up-move to $0.29 and thereafter to $0.32.
On the contrary, if the price turns down and re-enters the triangle, it will indicate that the markets have rejected the higher levels. The pair may then retest the important support at $0.24.
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) rose above the 20-day EMA ($0.06) on Sep. 29 and reached the 50-day SMA ($0.06) on Oct. 1. This shows that the bulls are trying to start an up-move.
The 20-day EMA is flattish but the RSI has jumped into the positive zone, indicating that the momentum is turning positive. A close above the 50-day SMA will open the gates for a possible rally to $0.07. This level may act as a minor hurdle but if crossed, the DOGE/USDT pair is likely to climb to $0.08.
Time is running out for the bears. If they want to prevent the rally, they will have to quickly tug the price back below the 20-day EMA. The pair may then retest the crucial support at $0.06.
Toncoin price analysis
Toncoin’s (TON) relief rally fizzled out at $2.31 on Sep. 28, indicating that the bears are selling at higher levels. The price turned down but the bulls held the $2.07 support on Oct. 1.
The bears renewed their selling on Oct. 2 and pulled the price below the vital support at $2.07. If the price sustains below this level, the selling could intensify and the TON/USDT pair risks tumbling down to the 50-day SMA ($1.84).
On the upside, the bulls will have to drive the price above $2.31 to open the doors for a possible retest of the overhead resistance at $2.59. This level may again attract aggressive selling by the bears.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
sp 500 cryptocurrency bitcoin btc xrp bnb stock markets
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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism
NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism
One month after the inflation outlook tracked…
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One month after the inflation outlook tracked by the NY Fed Consumer Survey extended their late 2023 slide, with 3Y inflation expectations in January sliding to a record low 2.4% (from 2.6% in December), even as 1 and 5Y inflation forecasts remained flat, moments ago the NY Fed reported that in February there was a sharp rebound in longer-term inflation expectations, rising to 2.7% from 2.4% at the three-year ahead horizon, and jumping to 2.9% from 2.5% at the five-year ahead horizon, while the 1Y inflation outlook was flat for the 3rd month in a row, stuck at 3.0%.
The increases in both the three-year ahead and five-year ahead measures were most pronounced for respondents with at most high school degrees (in other words, the "really smart folks" are expecting deflation soon). The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons, while the median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one- and three-year ahead horizons and remained unchanged at the five-year ahead horizon.
Going down the survey, we find that the median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% for gas; decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 6.8% for the cost of medical care (its lowest reading since September 2020); decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% for the cost of a college education; and surprisingly decreased by 0.3 percentage point for rent to 6.1% (its lowest reading since December 2020), and remained flat for food at 4.9%.
We find the rent expectations surprising because it is happening just asking rents are rising across the country.
At the same time as consumers erroneously saw sharply lower rents, median home price growth expectations remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month at 3.0%.
Turning to the labor market, the survey found that the average perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job separations increased, while the perceived likelihood of finding a job (in the event of a job loss) declined. "The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also increased, by 1.8 percentage points to 19.5%."
Mean unemployment expectations - or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now - decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 36.1%, the lowest reading since February 2022. Additionally, the median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth was unchanged at 2.8%, remaining slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 2.9%.
Turning to household finance, we find the following:
- The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.1%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.9% to 3.3% since January 2023, and remains above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 2.7%.
- Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%. The increase was driven by respondents with a high school degree or less.
- Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased to 9.3% from 8.9%.
- The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 26.1%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 30%.
- Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated somewhat with fewer respondents reporting being better off than a year ago. Year-ahead expectations also deteriorated marginally with a smaller share of respondents expecting to be better off and a slightly larger share of respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now.
- The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.4 percentage point to 38.9%.
- At the same time, perceptions and expectations about credit access turned less optimistic: "Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated with a larger share of respondents reporting tighter conditions and a smaller share reporting looser conditions compared to a year ago."
Also, a smaller percentage of consumers, 11.45% vs 12.14% in prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months
Last, and perhaps most humorous, is the now traditional cognitive dissonance one observes with these polls, because at a time when long-term inflation expectations jumped, which clearly suggests that financial conditions will need to be tightened, the number of respondents expecting higher stock prices one year from today jumped to the highest since November 2021... which incidentally is just when the market topped out during the last cycle before suffering a painful bear market.
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Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more
New Zillow research suggests the spring home shopping season may see a second wave this summer if mortgage rates fall
The post Homes listed for sale in…
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- A Zillow analysis of 2023 home sales finds homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more.
- The best time to list a home for sale is a month later than it was in 2019, likely driven by mortgage rates.
- The best time to list can be as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York and Philadelphia.
Spring home sellers looking to maximize their sale price may want to wait it out and list their home for sale in the first half of June. A new Zillow® analysis of 2023 sales found that homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more, a $7,700 boost on a typical U.S. home.
The best time to list consistently had been early May in the years leading up to the pandemic. The shift to June suggests mortgage rates are strongly influencing demand on top of the usual seasonality that brings buyers to the market in the spring. This home-shopping season is poised to follow a similar pattern as that in 2023, with the potential for a second wave if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates midyear or later.
The 2.3% sale price premium registered last June followed the first spring in more than 15 years with mortgage rates over 6% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. The high rates put home buyers on the back foot, and as rates continued upward through May, they were still reassessing and less likely to bid boldly. In June, however, rates pulled back a little from 6.79% to 6.67%, which likely presented an opportunity for determined buyers heading into summer. More buyers understood their market position and could afford to transact, boosting competition and sale prices.
The old logic was that sellers could earn a premium by listing in late spring, when search activity hit its peak. Now, with persistently low inventory, mortgage rate fluctuations make their own seasonality. First-time home buyers who are on the edge of qualifying for a home loan may dip in and out of the market, depending on what’s happening with rates. It is almost certain the Federal Reserve will push back any interest-rate cuts to mid-2024 at the earliest. If mortgage rates follow, that could bring another surge of buyers later this year.
Mortgage rates have been impacting affordability and sale prices since they began rising rapidly two years ago. In 2022, sellers nationwide saw the highest sale premium when they listed their home in late March, right before rates barreled past 5% and continued climbing.
Zillow’s research finds the best time to list can vary widely by metropolitan area. In 2023, it was as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York. Thirty of the top 35 largest metro areas saw for-sale listings command the highest sale prices between May and early July last year.
Zillow also found a wide range in the sale price premiums associated with homes listed during those peak periods. At the hottest time of the year in San Jose, homes sold for 5.5% more, a $88,000 boost on a typical home. Meanwhile, homes in San Antonio sold for 1.9% more during that same time period.
| Metropolitan Area | Best Time to List | Price Premium | Dollar Boost |
| United States | First half of June | 2.3% | $7,700 |
| New York, NY | First half of July | 2.4% | $15,500 |
| Los Angeles, CA | First half of May | 4.1% | $39,300 |
| Chicago, IL | First half of June | 2.8% | $8,800 |
| Dallas, TX | First half of June | 2.5% | $9,200 |
| Houston, TX | Second half of April | 2.0% | $6,200 |
| Washington, DC | Second half of June | 2.2% | $12,700 |
| Philadelphia, PA | First half of July | 2.4% | $8,200 |
| Miami, FL | First half of June | 2.3% | $12,900 |
| Atlanta, GA | Second half of June | 2.3% | $8,700 |
| Boston, MA | Second half of May | 3.5% | $23,600 |
| Phoenix, AZ | First half of June | 3.2% | $14,700 |
| San Francisco, CA | Second half of February | 4.2% | $50,300 |
| Riverside, CA | First half of May | 2.7% | $15,600 |
| Detroit, MI | First half of July | 3.3% | $7,900 |
| Seattle, WA | First half of June | 4.3% | $31,500 |
| Minneapolis, MN | Second half of May | 3.7% | $13,400 |
| San Diego, CA | Second half of April | 3.1% | $29,600 |
| Tampa, FL | Second half of June | 2.1% | $8,000 |
| Denver, CO | Second half of May | 2.9% | $16,900 |
| Baltimore, MD | First half of July | 2.2% | $8,200 |
| St. Louis, MO | First half of June | 2.9% | $7,000 |
| Orlando, FL | First half of June | 2.2% | $8,700 |
| Charlotte, NC | Second half of May | 3.0% | $11,000 |
| San Antonio, TX | First half of June | 1.9% | $5,400 |
| Portland, OR | Second half of April | 2.6% | $14,300 |
| Sacramento, CA | First half of June | 3.2% | $17,900 |
| Pittsburgh, PA | Second half of June | 2.3% | $4,700 |
| Cincinnati, OH | Second half of April | 2.7% | $7,500 |
| Austin, TX | Second half of May | 2.8% | $12,600 |
| Las Vegas, NV | First half of June | 3.4% | $14,600 |
| Kansas City, MO | Second half of May | 2.5% | $7,300 |
| Columbus, OH | Second half of June | 3.3% | $10,400 |
| Indianapolis, IN | First half of July | 3.0% | $8,100 |
| Cleveland, OH | First half of July | 3.4% | $7,400 |
| San Jose, CA | First half of June | 5.5% | $88,400 |
The post Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more appeared first on Zillow Research.
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February Employment Situation
By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…
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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert
The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.
Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.
Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.
The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.
The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.
Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.
As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.
Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.
The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.
unemployment pandemic unemployment
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