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Price analysis 10/16: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL, ADA, DOGE, TON
Stock markets flashed green at the weekly open, and crypto prices followed.
After two successive weeks of gains, the S&P 500 Index…
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Stock markets flashed green at the weekly open, and crypto prices followed.
After two successive weeks of gains, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) started the week on a positive note. This suggests a risk-on sentiment which is a bullish sign. The volatility is likely to pick up as 11% of the S&P 500 companies are expected to report results this week.
The risk-on sentiment could boost buying interest in select cryptocurrencies. One area where bullish activity is seen is the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Grayscale’s legal victories have reduced the discount on the GBTC to its lowest level since 2021. This indicates that the investors are factoring in the possibility that the trust will finally convert into a spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETF.
When the price does not break below the support levels on bad news and rises above the overhead resistance on favorable news, it shows that the shorts are running low on confidence. This increases the likelihood of an up-move in the near term.
What are the important overhead resistance levels on Bitcoin and altcoins that need to be crossed to start an uptrend? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
S&P 500 Index price analysis
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) turned down from the 50-day simple moving average (4,401) on Oct. 12, but the bears could not sink the price below the important level at 4,325.
The 20-day exponential moving average (4,341) is flattening out and the relative strength index (RSI) is just above the midpoint, suggesting that bulls have a slight edge.
Buyers will try to thrust the price above the overhead resistance zone between the 50-day SMA and the downtrend line. If this zone is surmounted, the index will signal the end of the corrective phase.
Conversely, if the price turns down and breaks below 4,325, it will indicate that bears are fiercely defending the 50-day SMA. The index may then retest the pivotal support at 4,216.
U.S. dollar index price analysis
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) corrected from 107.34 on Oct. 3 and dipped to the 20-day EMA ($106) on Oct. 10. In an uptrend, traders generally buy the dips to the 20-day EMA.
Here too, the bulls bought the dip to the 20-day EMA, which started a rebound. The bulls will try to push the price above the 107.34 to 108 resistance zone. If they succeed, the index could start a strong rally toward 111.
However, the bears are unlikely to give up easily. They will try to guard the overhead zone and tug the price below 105.50. If this support cracks, the index may dip to the 50-day SMA ($104.81). This is an important level for the bulls to defend if they want to keep the up-move intact. Below this level, the index could fall to 103.
Bitcoin price analysis
After trading between the moving averages for the past few days, Bitcoin made a decisive move on Oct. 16 when bulls kicked the price above the 20-day EMA ($27,224).
The momentum picked up further and the BTC/USDT pair skyrocketed above the $28,143 resistance. However, the euphoria was short-lived as the bears aggressively sold at higher levels and yanked the price back below $28,143.
The 20-day EMA has started to turn up and the RSI has jumped into positive territory, indicating that the bulls have a slight edge. If buyers achieve a close above $28,143, the pair may march toward $30,000 and then to $31,000.
On the downside, a break and close below the 50-day SMA ($26,715) will tilt the advantage in favor of the bears. The pair may first plummet to $26,000 and then to $24,800.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) has been oscillating between $1,531 and $1,746 for the past several days. Generally, in a range, traders buy near the support and sell at the resistance.
Buyers purchased the dip to $1,521 on Oct. 12 which started a relief rally. The bulls attempted to drive the price above the moving averages on Oct. 16 but the long wick on the candlestick shows aggressive selling by the bears.
If the price turns down from the current level, the bears will make one more attempt to sink and sustain the price below $1,521. If they succeed, the ETH/USDT pair may collapse to $1,368.
Contrarily, the bulls will again attempt to push and sustain the price above the moving averages. If they can pull it off, the pair could jump to $1,746. This level is again likely to witness strong selling by the bears.
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) rebounded off the strong support at $203 and nudged above the downtrend line on Oct. 16. However, the long wick on the candlestick shows that the bears are selling on rallies.
The 20-day EMA ($210) has flattened out and the RSI is above the midpoint, suggesting that the bearish momentum is weakening.
The bulls will again try to take advantage of this situation and propel the price above the downtrend line. If they can maintain the higher levels, it will invalidate the bearish descending triangle pattern. The BNB/USDT pair may then climb to $235 and later to $250.
This bullish view will be negated if the price turns down and plunges below the vital support at $203. The pair may then tumble to $183.
XRP price analysis
XRP (XRP) has been stuck inside the large range between $0.41 and $0.56 for the past several days. The bulls are trying to start a pullback, which is likely to face stiff resistance at the moving averages.
If the price turns down from the moving averages, it will suggest that every minor relief rally is being sold into. That will increase the possibility of a drop to $0.46. If this level also fails to hold, the XRP/USDT pair may descend to $0.41.
Contrarily, if bulls thrust the price above the moving averages, it will indicate solid buying at lower levels. The pair will then attempt a rally to $0.56. The bears are expected to protect this level with vigor.
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) surged above the near-term resistance of $22.50 on Oct. 16, indicating that the bulls are trying to take control.
The bulls pushed the price to the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern but could not scale the level. This is an important resistance to keep an eye on because a close above it will complete the bullish setup. The SOL/USDT pair may then start an up-move to $27.12 and later to the pattern target of $32.81.
If bears want to prevent the upside, they will have to quickly drag the price back below the 50-day SMA ($20.56). The pair may then dip to $18.50.
Related: Mining BTC is harder than ever — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) bounced off the strong support near $0.24, indicating that the bulls are fiercely defending this level.
The immediate resistance on the upside is from the moving averages. Buyers tried to overcome this obstacle on Oct. 16 but the long wick on the candlestick shows selling at higher levels. If bulls do not give up much ground from the current level, it will improve the prospects of a rally above $0.28. This level may again behave as a resistance but if cleared, the ADA/USDT pair could reach $0.30.
The important level to watch on the downside is $0.24. If the price turns down from the moving averages, it will increase the likelihood of a drop below $0.24. A break below this crucial support could sink the pair to $0.22 and subsequently to $0.20.
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) recovered to the breakdown level of $0.06 on Oct. 14, indicating that lower levels are attracting buyers.
The 20-day EMA ($0.06) is flattening out and the RSI is near the midpoint, signaling that the selling pressure could be reducing. If buyers drive and maintain the price above the moving averages, it will suggest the start of a new up-move to $0.07. This level may again act as a stiff hurdle but if cleared, the DOGE/USDT pair could reach $0.08.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from the current level, it will suggest that the pair may extend its stay inside the $0.055 to $0.06 range for some more time.
Toncoin price analysis
Toncoin (TON) has been trading below the moving averages since October 12 but a positive sign is that the bears have not been able to capitalize on this weakness. This indicates a lack of selling at lower levels.
The bulls tried to push the price back above the moving averages but the long wick on the candlestick shows that the bears are in no mood to relent. Sellers will again try to sink the price below $1.89 and start a deeper correction. The next support on the downside is at $1.80 and then $1.60.
If bulls want to signal a comeback, they will have to push and sustain the price above the moving averages. The TON/USDT pair could first rise to $2.20 and then to $2.31.
sp 500 cryptocurrency bitcoin crypto btc xrp bnb etf crypto stock markets
Uncategorized
NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism
NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism
One month after the inflation outlook tracked…
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One month after the inflation outlook tracked by the NY Fed Consumer Survey extended their late 2023 slide, with 3Y inflation expectations in January sliding to a record low 2.4% (from 2.6% in December), even as 1 and 5Y inflation forecasts remained flat, moments ago the NY Fed reported that in February there was a sharp rebound in longer-term inflation expectations, rising to 2.7% from 2.4% at the three-year ahead horizon, and jumping to 2.9% from 2.5% at the five-year ahead horizon, while the 1Y inflation outlook was flat for the 3rd month in a row, stuck at 3.0%.
The increases in both the three-year ahead and five-year ahead measures were most pronounced for respondents with at most high school degrees (in other words, the "really smart folks" are expecting deflation soon). The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons, while the median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one- and three-year ahead horizons and remained unchanged at the five-year ahead horizon.
Going down the survey, we find that the median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% for gas; decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 6.8% for the cost of medical care (its lowest reading since September 2020); decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% for the cost of a college education; and surprisingly decreased by 0.3 percentage point for rent to 6.1% (its lowest reading since December 2020), and remained flat for food at 4.9%.
We find the rent expectations surprising because it is happening just asking rents are rising across the country.
At the same time as consumers erroneously saw sharply lower rents, median home price growth expectations remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month at 3.0%.
Turning to the labor market, the survey found that the average perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job separations increased, while the perceived likelihood of finding a job (in the event of a job loss) declined. "The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also increased, by 1.8 percentage points to 19.5%."
Mean unemployment expectations - or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now - decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 36.1%, the lowest reading since February 2022. Additionally, the median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth was unchanged at 2.8%, remaining slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 2.9%.
Turning to household finance, we find the following:
- The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.1%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.9% to 3.3% since January 2023, and remains above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 2.7%.
- Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%. The increase was driven by respondents with a high school degree or less.
- Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased to 9.3% from 8.9%.
- The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 26.1%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 30%.
- Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated somewhat with fewer respondents reporting being better off than a year ago. Year-ahead expectations also deteriorated marginally with a smaller share of respondents expecting to be better off and a slightly larger share of respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now.
- The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.4 percentage point to 38.9%.
- At the same time, perceptions and expectations about credit access turned less optimistic: "Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated with a larger share of respondents reporting tighter conditions and a smaller share reporting looser conditions compared to a year ago."
Also, a smaller percentage of consumers, 11.45% vs 12.14% in prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months
Last, and perhaps most humorous, is the now traditional cognitive dissonance one observes with these polls, because at a time when long-term inflation expectations jumped, which clearly suggests that financial conditions will need to be tightened, the number of respondents expecting higher stock prices one year from today jumped to the highest since November 2021... which incidentally is just when the market topped out during the last cycle before suffering a painful bear market.
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Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more
New Zillow research suggests the spring home shopping season may see a second wave this summer if mortgage rates fall
The post Homes listed for sale in…
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- A Zillow analysis of 2023 home sales finds homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more.
- The best time to list a home for sale is a month later than it was in 2019, likely driven by mortgage rates.
- The best time to list can be as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York and Philadelphia.
Spring home sellers looking to maximize their sale price may want to wait it out and list their home for sale in the first half of June. A new Zillow® analysis of 2023 sales found that homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more, a $7,700 boost on a typical U.S. home.
The best time to list consistently had been early May in the years leading up to the pandemic. The shift to June suggests mortgage rates are strongly influencing demand on top of the usual seasonality that brings buyers to the market in the spring. This home-shopping season is poised to follow a similar pattern as that in 2023, with the potential for a second wave if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates midyear or later.
The 2.3% sale price premium registered last June followed the first spring in more than 15 years with mortgage rates over 6% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. The high rates put home buyers on the back foot, and as rates continued upward through May, they were still reassessing and less likely to bid boldly. In June, however, rates pulled back a little from 6.79% to 6.67%, which likely presented an opportunity for determined buyers heading into summer. More buyers understood their market position and could afford to transact, boosting competition and sale prices.
The old logic was that sellers could earn a premium by listing in late spring, when search activity hit its peak. Now, with persistently low inventory, mortgage rate fluctuations make their own seasonality. First-time home buyers who are on the edge of qualifying for a home loan may dip in and out of the market, depending on what’s happening with rates. It is almost certain the Federal Reserve will push back any interest-rate cuts to mid-2024 at the earliest. If mortgage rates follow, that could bring another surge of buyers later this year.
Mortgage rates have been impacting affordability and sale prices since they began rising rapidly two years ago. In 2022, sellers nationwide saw the highest sale premium when they listed their home in late March, right before rates barreled past 5% and continued climbing.
Zillow’s research finds the best time to list can vary widely by metropolitan area. In 2023, it was as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York. Thirty of the top 35 largest metro areas saw for-sale listings command the highest sale prices between May and early July last year.
Zillow also found a wide range in the sale price premiums associated with homes listed during those peak periods. At the hottest time of the year in San Jose, homes sold for 5.5% more, a $88,000 boost on a typical home. Meanwhile, homes in San Antonio sold for 1.9% more during that same time period.
| Metropolitan Area | Best Time to List | Price Premium | Dollar Boost |
| United States | First half of June | 2.3% | $7,700 |
| New York, NY | First half of July | 2.4% | $15,500 |
| Los Angeles, CA | First half of May | 4.1% | $39,300 |
| Chicago, IL | First half of June | 2.8% | $8,800 |
| Dallas, TX | First half of June | 2.5% | $9,200 |
| Houston, TX | Second half of April | 2.0% | $6,200 |
| Washington, DC | Second half of June | 2.2% | $12,700 |
| Philadelphia, PA | First half of July | 2.4% | $8,200 |
| Miami, FL | First half of June | 2.3% | $12,900 |
| Atlanta, GA | Second half of June | 2.3% | $8,700 |
| Boston, MA | Second half of May | 3.5% | $23,600 |
| Phoenix, AZ | First half of June | 3.2% | $14,700 |
| San Francisco, CA | Second half of February | 4.2% | $50,300 |
| Riverside, CA | First half of May | 2.7% | $15,600 |
| Detroit, MI | First half of July | 3.3% | $7,900 |
| Seattle, WA | First half of June | 4.3% | $31,500 |
| Minneapolis, MN | Second half of May | 3.7% | $13,400 |
| San Diego, CA | Second half of April | 3.1% | $29,600 |
| Tampa, FL | Second half of June | 2.1% | $8,000 |
| Denver, CO | Second half of May | 2.9% | $16,900 |
| Baltimore, MD | First half of July | 2.2% | $8,200 |
| St. Louis, MO | First half of June | 2.9% | $7,000 |
| Orlando, FL | First half of June | 2.2% | $8,700 |
| Charlotte, NC | Second half of May | 3.0% | $11,000 |
| San Antonio, TX | First half of June | 1.9% | $5,400 |
| Portland, OR | Second half of April | 2.6% | $14,300 |
| Sacramento, CA | First half of June | 3.2% | $17,900 |
| Pittsburgh, PA | Second half of June | 2.3% | $4,700 |
| Cincinnati, OH | Second half of April | 2.7% | $7,500 |
| Austin, TX | Second half of May | 2.8% | $12,600 |
| Las Vegas, NV | First half of June | 3.4% | $14,600 |
| Kansas City, MO | Second half of May | 2.5% | $7,300 |
| Columbus, OH | Second half of June | 3.3% | $10,400 |
| Indianapolis, IN | First half of July | 3.0% | $8,100 |
| Cleveland, OH | First half of July | 3.4% | $7,400 |
| San Jose, CA | First half of June | 5.5% | $88,400 |
The post Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more appeared first on Zillow Research.
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February Employment Situation
By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…
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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert
The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.
Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.
Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.
The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.
The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.
Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.
As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.
Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.
The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.
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