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“Premiums Are Going Nuts Everywhere”: Plunging US Supply Sends Oil Prices Around The World Soaring

"Premiums Are Going Nuts Everywhere": Plunging US Supply Sends Oil Prices Around The World Soaring

Buyers of physical oil across the planet…

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"Premiums Are Going Nuts Everywhere": Plunging US Supply Sends Oil Prices Around The World Soaring

Buyers of physical oil across the planet are experiencing an acute supply shortage and are facing some of the highest premiums for supplies they’ve seen in months as plunging stocks at the largest US crude storage hub send shockwaves cross markets from Asia to Europe and the Middle East.

As Bloomberg reports, US crude cargoes on offer in Asia are being offered at the costliest premium this year. The spread between Brent and Middle East oil has jumped to the highest since February while the premium for near-term US supply is close to the highest since July 2022.

Behind the soaring premiums is Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for benchmark US crude futures, which helps to set the price of oil across the Americas and beyond. As we have noted in recent weeks, inventories at the hub are now sitting just above seasonal lows last seen in 2014, and are effectively at the level known as "tank bottoms" below which inventories are for the most part unusable.

Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma tumbled below 22 million barrels last week, the lowest since July 2022, and have dropped for seven straight weeks, reaching the lowest level at this time of the year since at least 2018. At these levels, many traders consider inventories to already be at the lowest levels that allow tanks to function normally.

The situation is forcing some traders to pay up big for last-minute supplies at Cushing. The prompt futures spread, which closely tracks supply and demand at the site, surged above $2 a barrel on Wednesday, the highest since July 2022.

Meanwhile, the US refinery maintenance season is getting underway, which will prevent the storage hub from draining to absolute lows. Still, exports remain a wild card for balances, given that demand for American oil is high amid OPEC+ supply curbs, meaning domestic users will likely have to pay up to keep barrels in the US.

Operationally, pulling oil out of tanks when levels fall below the so-called “suction line” is difficult and expensive, and the quality of crude can be compromised by the presence of water and sediment. For now, traders are expecting stockpiles to halt their decline by October and possibly start building up again, depending on how exports shape up. Indeed, this week’s drawdown was less than 1 million barrels — the first time that’s happened since early August.

Cushing’s role in global oil markets has also diminished in recent years since the US lifted an export ban. Most barrels now flow straight from the prolific oilfields in Texas’ Permian Basin to the coast, where they are shipped to overseas buyers.

“Cushing can stay at minimum operating operating levels for an extended period of time,” said Scott Shelton, an energy specialist at ICAP. “It’s now a transit point to the US Gulf Coast and a supply point for Cushing-based refiners.”

The latest surge in US crude spreads also fueled a jump in Brent spreads, with the prompt spread climbing above $2 as well, to the widest in a year.

All that’s happening just as the world was already facing a tight supply situation with Saudi Arabia and Russia cutting output. In recent months, the US had helped fill a void left in the market, routinely sending more than 4 million barrels every day to sate global appetite. Between overseas shipments and strong domestic demand, stockpiles quickly declined in the US. Now there’s a question of whether those flows will continue.

“We’re running out of oil – you can see how low storage is at Cushing,” said Gary Ross, a veteran oil consultant turned hedge fund manager at Black Gold Investors LLC. “If we’re running out at Cushing, then we’re running out in Europe, because it relies on US exports. If the US exports less, then where is Europe going to get its oil from?”

As supplies collapse, cargoes of WTI Midland crude for January delivery to Asia are being offered for sale at premiums of $9 a barrel above benchmark Dubai oil, according to traders who buy and sell the grade. That would be the highest premium seen this year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Actual trading will likely start next week, giving more clarity on how much stronger the market for US barrels has gotten.

Abu Dhabi’s Murban crude also surged against Dubai on the ICE Futures Abu Dhabi exchange. Although spot cargoes of Middle Eastern crude will only begin trading in the coming weeks, the premium of the grade — often compared with WTI Midland — increased to the highest since February/

In the futures market, the surge is already apparent. The tightness in US supplies narrowed the gap between US crude and international benchmark Brent to under $3 a barrel, the smallest since May last year. Meanwhile, the spread between Brent and Middle East’s Dubai marker — also known as Brent-Dubai EFS — has skyrocketed

While there’s been a lot of angst over the shrinking US inventories, there are yet to be any concrete signs of a slowdown in American exports.

“Waterborne exports in October are still likely to come in close to 4 million barrels a day,” said Matt Smith, oil analyst at Kpler. “The lagged impact of the tightening Brent-WTI spread means we may not see the full impact until November’s loadings.”

For November and beyond, it’s still likely exports will hover around the 4 million barrels a day level, Smith said, citing strong domestic shale production.

Traders also point to inventories being fairly robust in the Gulf Coast region as a sign that US exports could continue to remain strong for a few weeks. At the same time, heavy seasonal refinery maintenance work in the US alongside turnarounds in Europe should also offer a cushion and free up some supplies.

Already, prices for WTI in Midland and WTI at Houston are weakening relative to prices at Cushing. If that continues, it could re-open the arbitrage window to ship crude profitably to Asia. It should also help to send more barrels to Cushing.

Still, there are signs that some European refiners are having to pay up for immediate supplies.

Angola’s Sonangol sold four cargoes as much as $1.50 a barrel above offer prices over the past week, with three of the shipments likely going to Europe. Those cargoes would usually be destined for Asia — the atypical trade pattern reflects some of the market’s sharp swings this week.

“The premiums are going nuts everywhere,” Ross said. “The Saudis have tightened this market up dramatically.” Almost as if Saudi Crown Prince MBS doesn't care much for Joe Biden's sole election "strategy" of keeping gas prices low - fist bumps notwithstanding...

... especially now that the US SPR is half-empty and any continued drainage would lead to catastrophic collapse at the salt caverns that hold US emergency inventories, sending oil prices to new record highs.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/30/2023 - 16:45

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International

Victor Davis Hanson’s Annotated Guide To American Middle East Madness

Victor Davis Hanson’s Annotated Guide To American Middle East Madness

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via X (@VDHanson),

Take note that a…

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Victor Davis Hanson's Annotated Guide To American Middle East Madness

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via X (@VDHanson),

Take note that a trapped Hamas in extremis will go to desperate lengths to survive, from trying to prompt lone-wolf killings in Western cities to drawing in Arab nations to share in their jihad to enlisting Western elites and expatriate Muslims both to deny Hamas is a murderous organization and simultaneously to cheer on its macabre killing.

In this regard, the anti-Jewish nature of Iran and Hamas (read its 1988 Covenant of the Islamic Resistance Movement) should have been obvious, but Westerners suffered from a pathological desire to be deluded.

But to aid Israel in overcoming the current genocidal agendas of its enemies, we should remember first how we in the past have unfortunately contributed to this nightmare.

What follows are some brief annotated quotes of American Middle East insanity [with my annotations in brackets].

Consider our late point man in Iran, and supposed Obama-era expert on Hamas and ISIS, Robert Malley (2008):

It is "a mistake to only think of them [Hamas] in terms of their terrorist violence dimension.”

[Was it a mistake to envision the Third Reich also in terms only of its “terrorist violence,” given that it also promoted a green agenda?]

Malley also included Hamas in his groups of terrorist organizations that "are social and political movements, probably the most rooted movements in their respective societies.” …

[I agree that Hamas is certainly the “most rooted” of the movements in Gaza and perhaps the West Bank as well. And I concur that it is not a mere aberration in Palestinian society but reflects its collective “rooted” values.]

“There is so much misinformation about them …

[Please elaborate: does your “so much information” include things like our ignorance of the fact that Hamas likes to rape Jewish women and desecrate the dead bodies of Jews?]

“I speak to them and my colleagues speak to them [Hamas], and now we may disagree with them, but they have their own rationality … none of them are crazies,”

[Can you please provide transcripts of those occasions when you and your colleagues (also then in the Obama administration?) spoke to Hamas? That was also quite big of you, Mr. Malley, to note that you “may” disagree with Hamas. Was it over which of their killing methods is the most effective? I also agree that Hamas certainly has its own “rationality”. Its recent murder of 1200 Jews—the vast majority civilians—during a religious holiday, which followed a year-long carefully-planned blueprint for mass death and counted on the near-criminal naivete of Western diplomats, might rival the “rational” genocidal agendas of, say, the SS. As for “crazies”—do you mean that Hamas does not crazily fantasize about extermination, but carefully and rationally carries it out? If so, I concur.]

"It has a charity organization, a social branch; it’s not something you can defeat militarily either, and people need to understand that."

[Everything you have stated could have equally applied to the murderous Nazi party: it too was a “political movement” (which did not preclude its use of systematic murder). It too had its own “rationality” (kill Jews and destroy elected governments). It too had “a social branch” and “even charities” (all the better to disguise its murderous agendas). And, yes, one can defeat Hamas “militarily,” as the Allies did Nazi ideology. And yes, “people need to understand that” it is quite possible to ensure that Hamas murders no more.]

John Kerry at Davos in 2016:

“I think that some of it [the millions released to Iran by the Obama administration] will end up in the hands of the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps—the terrorism specialists of the Iranian armed forces] or other entities, some of which are labeled terrorists.”

[As for “Are labeled terrorists?”—Mr. Kerry, does your use of “labeled” mean that Iranian terrorists are terrorists in name only?]

“You know, to some degree, I’m not going to sit here and tell you that every component of that can be prevented.”

[“To some degree” ? If American money cannot be prevented from being used by Iranians for terrorism, then does “some degree” mean only 50,000 missiles sent to Hezbollah and Hamas rather than 100,000? Or does “some degree’ perhaps mean,someday, 1200 Jews murdered—rather than, say, 120?]

“There is no way they [the Iranian theocracy] can succeed in what they want to do if they are very busy funding a lot of terrorism.”

[But, Mr. Kerry, what do you think Iran really “want[s] to do”? Isn’t Iran “busy” building nuclear bombs, not subways and hospitals? And their nuke program is complementary to, rather in place of, Tehran’s vast terrorism budget. Or do you mean that if Iran spends the money on terrorism, they won’t have enough funds to complete building their nuclear-tipped missiles?]

Antony Blinken in 2023:

“We have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack, but there is certainly a long relationship.”

[At what upcoming date do you think you will need to amend this ridiculous declaration—in the same fashion you just deleted your recent tweet calling for a ceasefire the moment Israel was posed to strike back?]

State Department spokesman Ned Price (2023):

“Since April of 2021, we have demonstrated in very real and significant terms our commitment to the humanitarian needs of the Palestinian people. We’ve provided over $890 million for Palestinians, including over $680 in humanitarian assistance for refugees in the region through UNRWA … When Secretary Blinken was in Ramallah, he announced another $50 million in funding for UNRWA.”

[You certainly did show your commitment to the “needs” of the Palestinian people, which in the case of Gaza resulted in the most sophisticated, reinforced-concrete labyrinth of military tunnels in history, given the plethora of imported building materials purchased with fungible Western dollars to prepare for the mass murder that we just saw in Southern Israel.]

Ambassador Nicholas Burns:

“The Trump Administration’s decision to end U.S. assistance to Palestinian refugees is wrong on every level… heartless and unwise.”

[What was wrong on every level and certainly heartless and unwise was the Biden State Department’s nihilist decision in the very moments of taking power to resume hundreds of millions of fungible dollars to the Palestinians, much of which no doubt ended up in increased spending for  rockets and tunnels. Note that in 2021 the Biden Administration was warned of just that danger by its own state department—and was ignored by diplomats such as yourself: “We assess there is a high risk Hamas could potentially derive indirect, unintentional benefit from U.S. assistance to Gaza.”]

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/15/2023 - 19:50

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NFT market slump shows it’s maturing toward ‘genuine utility,’ execs argue

Decentraland Foundation executive director Yemel Jardis believes as people become more educated about NFTs, the focus will shift from speculative trading…

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Decentraland Foundation executive director Yemel Jardis believes as people become more educated about NFTs, the focus will shift from speculative trading to genuine utility.

A steep collapse in the price of nonfungible tokens (NFTs) shouldn’t be seen as a sign of distress but rather a signal the technology is maturing, according to Web3 executives.

“I wouldn’t say the NFT market has regressed,“ Decentraland Foundation executive director Yemel Jardi told Cointelegraph. “Rather, it’s maturing."

Jardi’s comments come after a September report from dappGambl that analyzed over 73,000 NFT collections and concluded that as much as 95% of the NFTs studied had no value, as prices, sales volume and transactions have slid over the past year.

Jardi stressed that markets are cyclic and it is natural for there to be periods of adjustment.

He attributed sliding NFT floor prices partly to “speculative trading” and said the value of NFTs should instead be anchored to their utility.

“As people become more educated about NFTs, their use cases and their utilities, the market will stabilize and the focus will shift from speculative trading to genuine utility and innovation.”

Anjali Young, co-founder of the tokenized community-management platform Collab.Land, isn’t surprised about the anti-NFT sentiment either.

“Any innovation — especially this one with financial impact, cultural value and status — will attract questioning during its downs,” she said.

Young believes many projects have stumbled since marketplaces such as OpenSea removed mandated royalty fees in late August.

Despite this, Young claimed that NFTs are “here to stay” and expects they will be more frequently used for loyalty programs, rewards, advertising and proof of authenticity in the coming months.

Tama Churchouse, chief operating officer of Cumberland Labs, recently opined that NFTs aren’t “dead,” arguing that recent developments in the space show there are still signs of life.

While the NFT market has primarily been dominated by digital art, Jardi said that nonfungible tokens remain an important tool for the broader digital landscape, as ownership of tangible assets can be denoted to users in novel ways.

Jardi believes governments and institutions will leverage NFTs in the future for various use cases. On Oct. 9, the Chinese-state-owned newspaper China Daily announced plans to launch a platform for trading digital collectibles.

Related: Mainstream NFT adoption will be driven mostly by their utility

The entertainment sector is another huge market for the NFT industry to capture, according to Scott Lawin, CEO of sports token platform Candy Digital.

Lawin told Cointelegraph that 24% of Major League Baseball fans who entered stadiums with mobile tickets in 2022 redeemed their complimentary commemorative digital ticket provided by Candy as a form of memorabilia.

“Those are all utilities of NFTs in real time,” Lawin added.

On the brand side, Adidas, Bud Light, Gucci, Prada and other companies dipping into the NFT space have seen a recent uptick in the number of active users on their Discord channels, Young said.

The NFT market capitalization currently stands at $5 billion, according to data from Forbes Digital Assets. The Yuga Labs-owned CryptoPunks and Bored Ape Yacht Club collections are the two largest, with market caps of $710 million and $400 million, respectively.

Magazine: NFT Collector: William Mapan’s Distance sells out, NFT float in Macy’s Parade, Nouns DAO forks

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How About Hunter? Justice Department Adds FARA Charge To Menendez Prosecution

How About Hunter? Justice Department Adds FARA Charge To Menendez Prosecution

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The Justice Department this week…

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How About Hunter? Justice Department Adds FARA Charge To Menendez Prosecution

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The Justice Department this week hit Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) with a superseding indictment including a new but all-too-familiar charge: being an unregistered foreign agent under the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA).

 

I cannot recall another sitting member of Congress being criminally charged as a foreign agent.

Yet even if this is the first such case, the charge has been freely used by the Justice Department in all but one case: Hunter Biden.

The indictment accuses Menendez of being a foreign agent on behalf of Egypt.

Also charged under the law is Menendez’s wife, Nadine, and Egyptian American businessman Wael Hana.

After they discussed various foreign policy priorities at one dinner, Nadine is quoted as asking her Egyptian counterparts, “What else can the love of my life do for you?”

The government alleges that the couple agreed to have Menendez “use his power and authority to facilitate such sales and financing to Egypt.” In addition to other benefits, the government alleges that Hana promised to put Nadine on the payroll of his company in a “low-or-no-show job.”

The indictment further alleges that the senator disclosed “nonpublic information about the United States’s provision of military aid to Egypt” during a dinner with Hana in 2018.

It also claims that the senator “secretly edited and ghost-wrote” a letter “on behalf of Egypt” trying to convince other senators to release a hold on $300 million in aid to the country.

The inclusion of the FARA charge against Menendez, his wife and his associate only highlights the absence of any such charge against President Biden’s son Hunter.

For years, some of us have raised the glaring contradiction in how the Justice Department has approached the Hunter Biden case with its treatment of past defendants like Donald Trump associate Paul Manafort.

The Justice Department has been quick to indictment Manafort and others on FARA charges, but continues to prevaricate over such a charge for the president’s son.

Indeed, when Menendez was charged, I wrote about the striking similarities in the cases, including the gifts and benefits showered on both men.

They remain similar in every way except the charges.

FARA covers anyone acting as “agent of a foreign principal,” including but not limited to (1) attempting to influence federal officials or the public on domestic or foreign policy or the political or public interests in favor of a foreign country; (2) collecting or disbursing money and or other things of value within the United States; or (3) representing the interests of the foreign principal before U.S. Government officials or agencies.

It is sweeping.

So is the definition of what a “foreign principal” encompasses, including “a foreign government, a foreign political party, any person outside the United States (except U.S. citizens who are domiciled within the United States), and any entity organized under the laws of a foreign country or having its principal place of business in a foreign country.”

It is easy to see why FARA charges have been quickly brought in cases ranging from Manafort to Menendez. It is less clear why such charges remains strikingly absent from the Hunter case.

In Hunter’s case, he was selling what associate Devon Archer called the “Biden brand” and asking, to paraphrase Nadine Menendez,  “What else can [my dad] do for you?”

The House committees have confirmed not only millions transferred to Hunter and other Biden family members, but direct contacts made by Hunter with federal officials and agencies in relation to his foreign clients.

Archer described how Burisma executives told Hunter that they were worried about the anti-corruption investigation of Ukrainian Prosecutor-General Viktor Shokin.

Archer testified that Hunter immediately “called D.C.” in response to the plea.

Shokin was later fired at Vice President Joe Biden’s demand.

In shaking down a Chinese source for more money, Hunter reportedly sent a WhatsApp message that reminded him that “The Bidens are the best at doing exactly what Chairman wants.”

The message was to Gongwen (“Kevin”) Dong, a CEFC China Energy executive with close ties to the Chinese government, and included a threat that “I am sitting here with my father and we would like to understand why the commitment made has not been fulfilled … I will make certain that between the man sitting next to me and every person he knows and my ability to forever hold a grudge that you will regret not following my direction. I am sitting here waiting for the call with my father.”

Throughout his open influence-peddling, emails show Hunter was fully aware of the risk of being charged under FARA.

The problem with FARA is that it would require the Bidens to publicly acknowledge their work as foreign agents and, by extension, their massive influence-peddling operation.

In one message, Hunter addressed his work for the Chinese CEFC energy company and warned:

“No matter what it will need to be a US company at some level in order for us to make bids on federal and state funded projects. Also We [sic] don’t want to have to register as foreign agents under the FCPA which is much more expansive than people who should know choose not to know. James has very particular opinions about this so I would ask him about the foreign entity.”

“James” is his uncle Jim Biden, who has also been regularly accused of corrupt influence-peddling tied to Joe Biden.

In the message, Hunter gets it.

The law is indeed “expansive.”

His uncle clearly gets it.

The question is why the Justice Department gets it in every case except those with targets named Biden.

For many, the question is not whether Hunter has acted as an agent of foreign principals but whether the Justice Department is acting as an agent of the principal Biden.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/15/2023 - 18:40

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