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Percent Scale PnF Technique. Nvidia Case Study.

A project that I have been working on in recent years is Horizontal PnF Counting using Percent Scaling. The method has generated promising results. Here…

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A project that I have been working on in recent years is Horizontal PnF Counting using Percent Scaling. The method has generated promising results. Here we look at two case studies that illustrate the techniques value. Using the ‘Percentage Chart Scaling' Method in StockCharts.com Point & Figure charting platform produces a Log Scale PnF chart. The percent scale defaults to 1% but can be adjusted manually. The case study charts in this blog are 3% scale PnF Charts. It takes a 3% change in price to move to the next vertical grid column.

This method is useful for estimating the price objective potential of a dynamically growing financial instrument. The traditional rules for counting horizontal (range-bound) structures also applies to the log-scale method.

The first case study is the bull market run in the S&P 500 Index from 2010 to the Bull Market peak in 2021. Each of the Re-Accumulation pauses are counted and flagged for their price projection estimates. These Re-Accumulations can take a year or more to unfold and build a Cause for the next upward ascent. The counts are remarkably accurate and useful. Please take time to study each of them.

This charting method has been made possible by the introduction of computerization. This technique is a compounding function rather than a simple horizontal counting method used in traditional fixed scale PnF charting methodology. Therefore, each horizontal column in the range-bound structure represents a compounding event. An example of a 10 column wide range-bound price structure represents 10 periods of say 3% growth in the subsequent upward trend. Thus 10 periods of growth at 3% results in a compounded appreciation of 33.1% which would be the price target for the advance.

The benefit of this PnF method is the capability of estimating the compounded growth of a dynamically advancing investment. As is the case with traditional PnF Method the time duration of the move remains an unknown. It is best to employ log-scale for dramatically rising and volatile instruments. For smaller ‘Swing Trading' structures arithmetic scaling is most effective. Fellow Wyckoffian Alessio Rutigliano has used log scaling PnF very effectively in the analysis of the Crypto Markets. Alessio's analytical work on Crypto Markets can be seen and studied at WyckoffAnalytics.com.

S&P 500 Index ($SPX) Point & Figure Case Study. 3% Scaling, 1-Box Reversal Method.

This log-scale horizontal PnF study of the S&P 500 Index spans more than a decade. The bull run from 2010 to 2021 had four well defined ‘Re-Accumulation' periods. Each of these structures identified price targets that were eventually achieved. The final upward leg of the Bull Market was dramatic in its persistency and was preceded by a long and volatile trading range. The horizontal PnF count was exceeded by only one box and was the conclusion of the bull market. The log scale of this chart study was in 3% increments, which is very aggressive scaling, and illustrates what a virile bull market this decade long period was. Consider that each upward chart entry (entered as an ‘X' on the chart) was a 3% increase.

The final upward surge into the Bull Market peak was capped by an acceleration of the index into a Buying Climax. A throwover of the trend channel combined with a fulfillment of the PnF count objective sealed the fate of this aging, historic Bull Market run.

NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Point & Figure Case Study. 3% Scaling, 1-Box Reversal Method.

NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) has become one of the "Magnificent 7'. The rally in 2022 and '23 was preceded by a period of Accumulation. Across the Accumulation 39 columns were counted. One-Box reversal method is used. Thus 39 periods of 3% appreciation are estimated. From the low of the count area and from the count line two price objectives are generated and flagged. The price objectives are 350.25 to 457.00. Recently NVDA surged past the higher target zone. In a final upward run (usually considered climactic) the upper objective can be exceeded. If, in short order, the stock price reverses and falls below the higher objective back into the target zone we will consider the PnF count to be active and still valid. NVDA has shortening upward thrusts in the area of the $457.00 price objective. As of Friday, September 8th NVDA was back below the upper price objective, closing the week at $455.72. Sudden weakness to a support area would be further evidence that, at best, a new range-bound price structure is beginning. Which could become a fresh new Re-Accumulation or Distribution. Only time will tell, and we will watch closely.

Notes on Log Scale PnF Method

1.      Initially default to 1% Scaling. Then try 2% Scaling.

2.      Count Accumulation and Re-Accumulation structures as you would with arithmetic scale charts.

3.      Default to 1-box reversal charts. Avoid counting 3-box charts.

4.      Primarily use log-scale method for dynamically growing financial assets. Use arithmetic scale otherwise.

5.      Count very conservatively. Big counts will generate very big price objectives using log-scale.

6.      Use a financial calculator or Excel to calculate compounded growth for the price objectives.

7.      For Distribution and Re-Distribution default to arithmetic scale PnF charts to estimate price targets. Log scale will typically result in over-counting of downside objectives.

8.      Lots of practice will help you discern when arithmetic scale or log-scale is the best method.


All the Best,

Bruce

@rdwyckoff

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. 


Announcement:

TSAA-SF Annual Conference

In-person in San Francisco. Livestreaming for dues paying members.

 

The TSAA-SF will be hosting our 2023 annual conference, in partnership with AAPTA, at Golden Gate University on Sep 16, 2023. 

 

Speakers include: 

Linda Raschke - Auction Theory versus the Theory of Reflexivity

Brett Villaume - Understanding Relative Strength

Bruce Fraser - Swing Trading Technique Using the Wyckoff Method

Ali Merchant - Power of trend lines and market outlook using major indices

Bob Schott - Technical Analysis for the Buy Side

Eoin Treacy - Waiting for Godot

Damon Pavlatos - Anticipating Market Action using Market Profile, Volume Analytics Strategies along with traditional charting analysis.

 

 

Cost: TSAA-SF members in-person: $150 (breakfast and lunch included), non-members: $400. Free livestreaming for TSAA-SF members. Join the TSAA-SF now for only $75/year.

 

For more information on the speakers and their topics and to register (Click Here):

https://www.tsaasf.org/event-5391152

 

 Power Charting TV:


Wyckoff Case Study: A Period of Distribution Featuring Nvidia! First of Three Parts. Special Guest: Roman Bogomazov

Description:

Master Wyckoffian Roman Bogomazov joins Bruce Fraser for an in-depth historical chart case study of Nvidia common stock. This is the first installment of a three-part Power Charting series devoted to analyzing Nvidia common stock. Each of the three episodes is evaluated using the Wyckoff Chart Reading Method in chronological order. This episode evaluates a period of Distribution. In conducting these case studies, the objective is to illustrate and develop in the viewer an appreciation of the nuance the Wyckoff Method offers in the understanding of the present position and likely future direction of a stock or index, using chart analysis, for the intention of more effectively campaigning that instrument at the best possible time.


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Analyst revamps MicroStrategy stock price target after Bitcoin buy

Here’s what could happen to MicroStrategy shares next.

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March 20, 2024

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How does Michael Saylor feel about bitcoin? We'll let him tell you in his own words.

"Bitcoin is a swarm of cyberhornets serving the goddess of wisdom, feeding on the fire of truth, exponentially growing ever smarter, faster, and stronger behind a wall of encrypted energy," the executive chairman and co-founder of MicroStrategy  (MSTR)  once said.

Too subtle? Still not sure how the former CEO of the software intelligence company feels about the world's largest cryptocurrency? 

Maybe this will help.

"Bitcoin is a bank in cyberspace, run by incorruptible software, offering a global, affordable, simple and secure savings account to billions of people that don't have the option or desire to run their own hedge fund," Saylor said.

Okay, so the guy really likes bitcoin. And on March 19, the first day of spring, MicroStrategy took a bigger bite out of bitcoin when the company said it had bought 9,245 bitcoins for $623 million between March 11 and March 18.

MicroStrategy said it a completed a $603.75 million convertible debt offering — its second in a week — to raise money to buy bitcoin.

The company now holds about $13.5 billion of bitcoin, which adds up to more than 1% of the 21 million bitcoin that will ever exist, according to CoinDesk.

An analyst adjusts his price target for MicroStrategy

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Committed to developing bitcoin network

MicroStrategy said in a regulatory filing that it had paid roughly $7.53 billion for its bitcoin stash, an average of $35,160 per coin.

The company's stock fell on Tuesday, while bitcoin posted its biggest single-day loss since November 2022. MicroStrategy was off slightly to $1,416 at last check on Wednesday and bitcoin was up 2.3% to $63.607.

Related: Analyst unveils Nvidia stock price 'line in the sand'

Phong Le, MicroStrategy’s president and CEO, told analysts during the company’s Feb. 6 fourth-quarter-earnings call that "we remain highly committed to our bitcoin strategy with a long-term focus.."

"We consider MicroStrategy to be the world's first bitcoin development company," he said. "We are a publicly traded operating company committed to the continued development of the bitcoin network through activities in the financial markets, advocacy, and technology innovation."

MicroStrategy earned $4.96 a share in the quarter, beating the FactSet consensus of a loss of 64 cents, and light years beyond the year-ago loss of $21.93 a share.

Revenue totaled $124.5 million, compared with FactSet's call for $133 million and the year-earlier tally of $132.6 million.

During the call, Saylor told analysts that "2024 is the year of birth of bitcoin as an institutional-grade asset class."

MicroStrategy, he said, completed the first 15 years of the bitcoin life cycle, back when it was largely unregulated and misunderstood. 

"The next 15 years, I would expect, will be a regulated, institutional, high-growth period of bitcoin, very, very different in many ways from the last 15 years," Saylor said.

Crypto's dark days

"Bitcoin itself is performing well for a number of reasons, but one reason is because it represents the digital transformation of capital," he added.

Of course, life with bitcoin wasn't always sunshine and roses. 

More Wall Street Analysts:

We take you back now to those less-than-thrilling days yesteryear, when covid-19 was on the rampage and the price of bitcoin fell 30% from March 8 to March 12 2020.

By the end of 2021, bitcoin had fallen nearly 30%. And 2023 saw the cryptocurrency sector wracked with bankruptcy and scandal, with the likes of FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried being convicted of fraud, conspiracy, and money laundering. 

SBF, as he has been known, is scheduled to be sentenced in Manhattan federal court on March 28. He faces a long stretch.

But bitcoin rose about 160% in 2023 and hit a record $73,750 on March 14.

Saylor recently said that his high hopes for bitcoin this year stemmed largely from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approving spot bitcoin ETFs and the upcoming bitcoin halving, where when bitcoin's mining reward is split in half.

MicroStrategy is the first bitcoin development company, Saylor told analysts, but perhaps not for long. 

"We've published our playbook, and we're showing other companies how to do it," he said.

TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza cited MicroStrategy's latest bitcoin acquisition when he adjusted his price target for the company's shares on March 20.

The analyst cut the investment firm's price target on MicroStrategy to $1,450 from $1,560 and affirmed an outperform rating on the shares. 

He says the shares remain an attractive vehicle for investors looking to gain bitcoin exposure.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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FoxO6-mediated ApoC3 upregulation promotes hepatic steatosis and hyperlipidemia in aged rats fed a high-fat diet

“This discovery unveils a potential novel molecular target for therapeutic strategies against hepatic steatosis during the aging process […]” Credit:…

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March 20, 2024

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“This discovery unveils a potential novel molecular target for therapeutic strategies against hepatic steatosis during the aging process […]”

Credit: 2024 Kim et al.

“This discovery unveils a potential novel molecular target for therapeutic strategies against hepatic steatosis during the aging process […]”

BUFFALO, NY- March 20, 2024 – A new research paper was published in Aging (listed by MEDLINE/PubMed as “Aging (Albany NY)” and “Aging-US” by Web of Science) Volume 16, Issue 5, entitled, “FoxO6-mediated ApoC3 upregulation promotes hepatic steatosis and hyperlipidemia in aged rats fed a high-fat diet.”

FoxO6, an identified factor, induces hyperlipidemia and hepatic steatosis during aging by activating hepatic lipoprotein secretion and lipogenesis leading to increased ApoC3 concentrations in the bloodstream. However, the intricate mechanisms underlying hepatic steatosis induced by elevated FoxO6 under hyperglycemic conditions remain intricate and require further elucidation.

In this new study, researchers Dae Hyun Kim, Seulah Lee, Sang Gyun Noh, Jaewon Lee, and Hae Young Chung from Pusan National University aimed to delineate the regulatory pathway involving ApoC3 controlled by FoxO6 and its resultant functional impacts.

“[…] we employed a spectrum of models including liver cell cultures, aged rats subjected to HFD, transgenic mice overexpressing FoxO6 (FoxO6-Tg), and FoxO6 knockout mice (FoxO6-KO).”

Their findings indicate that FoxO6 triggered ApoC3-driven lipid accumulation in the livers of aged rats on an HFD and in FoxO6-Tg, consequently leading to hepatic steatosis and hyperglycemia. Conversely, the absence of FoxO6 attenuated the expression of genes involved in lipogenesis, resulting in diminished hepatic lipid accumulation and mitigated hyperlipidemia in murine models. Additionally, the upregulation of FoxO6 due to elevated glucose levels led to increased ApoC3 expression, consequently instigating cellular triglyceride mediated lipid accumulation. The transcriptional activation of FoxO6 induced by both the HFD and high glucose levels resulted in hepatic steatosis by upregulating ApoC3 and genes associated with gluconeogenesis in aged rats and liver cell cultures.

“Our conclusions indicate that the upregulation of ApoC3 by FoxO6 promotes the development of hyperlipidemia, hyperglycemia, and hepatic steatosis in vivo, and in vitro. Taken together, our findings underscore the significance of FoxO6 in driving hyperlipidemia and hepatic steatosis specifically under hyperglycemic states by enhancing the expression of ApoC3 in aged rats.”
 

Read the full paper: DOI: https://doi.org/10.18632/aging.205610 

Corresponding Author: Hae Young Chung

Corresponding Email: hyjung@pusan.ac.kr 

Keywords: HFD-feeding, aging, forkhead transcription factor O6, ApoC3, lipid accumulation, hepatic steatosis

Click here to sign up for free Altmetric alerts about this article.

 

About Aging:

Aging publishes research papers in all fields of aging research including but not limited, aging from yeast to mammals, cellular senescence, age-related diseases such as cancer and Alzheimer’s diseases and their prevention and treatment, anti-aging strategies and drug development and especially the role of signal transduction pathways such as mTOR in aging and potential approaches to modulate these signaling pathways to extend lifespan. The journal aims to promote treatment of age-related diseases by slowing down aging, validation of anti-aging drugs by treating age-related diseases, prevention of cancer by inhibiting aging. Cancer and COVID-19 are age-related diseases.

Aging is indexed by PubMed/Medline (abbreviated as “Aging (Albany NY)”), PubMed Central, Web of Science: Science Citation Index Expanded (abbreviated as “Aging‐US” and listed in the Cell Biology and Geriatrics & Gerontology categories), Scopus (abbreviated as “Aging” and listed in the Cell Biology and Aging categories), Biological Abstracts, BIOSIS Previews, EMBASE, META (Chan Zuckerberg Initiative) (2018-2022), and Dimensions (Digital Science).

Please visit our website at www.Aging-US.com​​ and connect with us:

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For media inquiries, please contact media@impactjournals.com.

 

Aging (Aging-US) Journal Office

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Journal

Aging-US

DOI

10.18632/aging.205610

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

FoxO6-mediated ApoC3 upregulation promotes hepatic steatosis and hyperlipidemia in aged rats fed a high-fat diet

Article Publication Date

3-Mar-2024

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ARPA-H appoints Etta Pisano to lead its Advancing Clinical Trials Readiness Initiative

The Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health (ARPA-H) has appointed Etta D. Pisano, MD, FACR, senior portfolio lead, to build the agency’s clinical…

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10 hours ago

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March 20, 2024

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The Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health (ARPA-H) has appointed Etta D. Pisano, MD, FACR, senior portfolio lead, to build the agency’s clinical trial portfolio and lead the ARPA-H Advancing Clinical Trials Readiness Initiative under ARPA-H Resilient Systems Mission Office Director Jennifer Roberts.

Credit: N/A

The Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health (ARPA-H) has appointed Etta D. Pisano, MD, FACR, senior portfolio lead, to build the agency’s clinical trial portfolio and lead the ARPA-H Advancing Clinical Trials Readiness Initiative under ARPA-H Resilient Systems Mission Office Director Jennifer Roberts.

The first radiologist to be appointed to such a role, Dr. Pisano is an internationally recognized expert in women’s health, breast cancer research, and the use of artificial intelligence in medical imaging applications.

“I am honored to be working for ARPA-H to identify and promote research that can improve healthcare quality, efficacy and delivery, and to improve patient care and access to clinical trials for all Americans, including women, rural residents, and the underserved,” said Dr. Pisano.

Dr. Pisano will continue to serve as study chair of the large-scale Tomosynthesis Mammographic Imaging Screening Trial (TMIST) for the ECOG-ACRIN Cancer Research Group (ECOG-ACRIN). TMIST is led by ECOG-ACRIN with funding from the National Cancer Institute, part of the National Institutes of Health. She will also continue to serve as the American College of Radiology® (ACR®) Chief Research Officer (CRO). Dr. Pisano previously served as the principal investigator of the landmark Digital Mammographic Imaging Screening Trial (DMIST).

The TMIST breast cancer screening study is among the fastest growing National Cancer Institute (NCI) trials of the COVID-19 era. Under Dr. Pisano’s leadership, TMIST is assembling one of the most diverse cancer screening trial populations ever. Approximately 21% of TMIST U.S. participants are Black—more than double the average rate for Black participation in NCI-funded clinical trials (9%).

With ARPA-H, Dr. Pisano will work to build underserved and minority participation in clinical trials—including identifying and onboarding rural facilities and those outside of large academic medical centers—such as emerging retail healthcare sites. 

These duties are also very consistent with the missions of ECOG-ACRIN and ACR, which include promoting the exploration and identification of next-generation technologies that can benefit patients and providers.

“This is a great opportunity for Etta, and I’m excited about the impact she will make on our approach to clinical trials,” said Mitchell D. Schnall, MD, PhD, group co-chair of ECOG-ACRIN.

About ECOG-ACRIN

The ECOG-ACRIN Cancer Research Group (ECOG-ACRIN) is an expansive membership-based scientific organization that designs and conducts cancer research involving adults who have or are at risk of developing cancer. The Group comprises nearly 1400 member institutions and 21,000 research professionals in the United States and around the world. ECOG-ACRIN is known for advancing precision medicine and biomarker research through its leadership of major national clinical trials integrating cutting-edge genomic approaches. Member researchers and advocates collaborate across more than 40 scientific committees to design studies spanning the cancer care spectrum, from early detection to management of advanced disease. ECOG-ACRIN is funded primarily by the National Cancer Institute, part of the National Institutes of Health. Visit ecog-acrin.org, and follow us on X @eaonc, Facebook, LinkedIn, and Instagram.

Media Contact: Diane Dragaud, Director of Communications, communications@ecog-acrin.org.

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