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Opinion: Key signals to watch in a volatile real estate market

The big question is: how long will the market contraction last and when should we expect housing inventory to heat back up?
The post Opinion: Key signals…

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In May, I wrote about the signs to watch for a real estate market slowdown. It’s now October, we’ve had the biggest spike in mortgage rates we’ve seen in decades, and all the signs of a slowdown are here: Inventory is rising. The price of new listings is dropping. More homes are taking price reductions. And, there are fewer immediate sales.

Of course, some of what we’re seeing is exacerbated by seasonality — prices normally retreat in the fall, and there’s much less activity over the winter. But it’s clear that the dramatic shift in the market is about more than just seasonal fluctuations.

The big question is: how long will the market contraction last and when should we expect things to heat back up?

Let’s look at what the data can tell us:

1. Home buyers got spooked when mortgage rates passed 5.5%.

Homebuyers are understandably very sensitive to mortgage interest rates. In April, May and June, when rates spiked dramatically from 3% to 6%, we saw inventory rise as buyers pulled back. Rates peaked in late June and then fell back down to around 5% in July and August. At this point, buyers actually perked up a bit and got more active. We could measure this change because inventory stopped rising nationally during those months.

As soon as rates spiked above 5.5% in September to 6.5% or even 7%, buyers once again stopped abruptly. Inventory and price reductions have resumed climbing now.

Key takeaway: when imagining the possible outcomes for the 2023 market, it looks like that 5.5% threshold may be very important. We could see demand return the next time mortgage rates drop.

2. There’s a chance for more pronounced inventory growth.

We’ve been expecting inventory to grow through the middle of October, but if buyers continue to stay on the sidelines, then inventory could continue to grow into late October or even November, which would be very unusual. The holidays usually see far fewer sellers — most sellers wait until January to list their homes. But there are always some sellers (for a variety of reasons) that list and sell in November or December. Those reasons don’t stop, so inventory could continue to build.

Key takeaway: If inventory grows late in October or into November, then a bearish signal will be lit for home prices in the future.

altos-national-inventory-102022

3. We still have a significant shortage of homes available.

Given that we may see unseasonal inventory trends in the coming months, I now anticipate that we’ll end the year at around 490,000 homes for sale. This figure is ahead of last year’s home inventory levels — and slightly more than we had in 2020 — but it is still near record lows. And, it is less than half of the “normal” level of about one million homes on the market.

At the moment, most homeowners are locked into lower interest rate mortgages, they have solid equity in their homes and they have jobs — they don’t have to sell. It could take several years of higher interest rates to get us back to the previous “normal” levels of active inventory.

Key takeaway: There’s no tsunami of listings coming to the market. While home prices are dropping in many areas, this restricted inventory may help prevent a crash.

4. Some markets are hurting more than others.

While there was still solid demand for good properties up until August, we saw some markets struggling as early as May. In particular, markets that overheated during the COVID-19 pandemic are seeing a big correction now.

Take Boise, Idaho for example.  Days on market has risen from 20 days to 60 days over the past year. Price reductions are way up at 63% of the market, and the median price has dropped 20% from its peak in May. Other markets seeing a similar pattern include Austin, Texas, Phoenix and Salt Lake City.

By contrast, markets that didn’t have nearly as much of a boom in the past two years, like some of the New York City suburbs, are seeing a much more modest slowdown.

Boise-NY-price-reductions-102022

Key takeaway: It remains to be seen whether markets like Boise, Idaho are the canary in the coal mine, or if some markets will weather the storm fairly well, even in the face of significantly higher mortgage rates. We’ll be watching our data closely.

The post Opinion: Key signals to watch in a volatile real estate market appeared first on HousingWire.

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One city held a mass passport-getting event

A New Orleans congressman organized a way for people to apply for their passports en masse.

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While the number of Americans who do not have a passport has dropped steadily from more than 80% in 1990 to just over 50% now, a lack of knowledge around passport requirements still keeps a significant portion of the population away from international travel.

Over the four years that passed since the start of covid-19, passport offices have also been dealing with significant backlog due to the high numbers of people who were looking to get a passport post-pandemic. 

Related: Here is why it is (still) taking forever to get a passport

To deal with these concurrent issues, the U.S. State Department recently held a mass passport-getting event in the city of New Orleans. Called the "Passport Acceptance Event," the gathering was held at a local auditorium and invited residents of Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District to complete a passport application on-site with the help of staff and government workers.

A passport case shows the seal featured on American passports.

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'Come apply for your passport, no appointment is required'

"Hey #LA02," Rep. Troy A. Carter Sr. (D-LA), whose office co-hosted the event alongside the city of New Orleans, wrote to his followers on Instagram  (META) . "My office is providing passport services at our #PassportAcceptance event. Come apply for your passport, no appointment is required."

More Travel:

The event was held on March 14 from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. While it was designed for those who are already eligible for U.S. citizenship rather than as a way to help non-citizens with immigration questions, it helped those completing the application for the first time fill out forms and make sure they have the photographs and identity documents they need. The passport offices in New Orleans where one would normally have to bring already-completed forms have also been dealing with lines and would require one to book spots weeks in advance.

These are the countries with the highest-ranking passports in 2024

According to Carter Sr.'s communications team, those who submitted their passport application at the event also received expedited processing of two to three weeks (according to the State Department's website, times for regular processing are currently six to eight weeks).

While Carter Sr.'s office has not released the numbers of people who applied for a passport on March 14, photos from the event show that many took advantage of the opportunity to apply for a passport in a group setting and get expedited processing.

Every couple of months, a new ranking agency puts together a list of the most and least powerful passports in the world based on factors such as visa-free travel and opportunities for cross-border business.

In January, global citizenship and financial advisory firm Arton Capital identified United Arab Emirates as having the most powerful passport in 2024. While the United States topped the list of one such ranking in 2014, worsening relations with a number of countries as well as stricter immigration rules even as other countries have taken strides to create opportunities for investors and digital nomads caused the American passport to slip in recent years.

A UAE passport grants holders visa-free or visa-on-arrival access to 180 of the world’s 198 countries (this calculation includes disputed territories such as Kosovo and Western Sahara) while Americans currently have the same access to 151 countries.

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Fast-food chain closes restaurants after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Several major fast-food chains recently have struggled to keep restaurants open.

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Competition in the fast-food space has been brutal as operators deal with inflation, consumers who are worried about the economy and their jobs and, in recent months, the falling cost of eating at home. 

Add in that many fast-food chains took on more debt during the covid pandemic and that labor costs are rising, and you have a perfect storm of problems. 

It's a situation where Restaurant Brands International (QSR) has suffered as much as any company.  

Related: Wendy's menu drops a fan favorite item, adds something new

Three major Burger King franchise operators filed for bankruptcy in 2023, and the chain saw hundreds of stores close. It also saw multiple Popeyes franchisees move into bankruptcy, with dozens of locations closing.

RBI also stepped in and purchased one of its key franchisees.

"Carrols is the largest Burger King franchisee in the United States today, operating 1,022 Burger King restaurants in 23 states that generated approximately $1.8 billion of system sales during the 12 months ended Sept. 30, 2023," RBI said in a news release. Carrols also owns and operates 60 Popeyes restaurants in six states." 

The multichain company made the move after two of its large franchisees, Premier Kings and Meridian, saw multiple locations not purchased when they reached auction after Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings. In that case, RBI bought select locations but allowed others to close.

Burger King lost hundreds of restaurants in 2023.

Image source: Chen Jianli/Xinhua via Getty

Another fast-food chain faces bankruptcy problems

Bojangles may not be as big a name as Burger King or Popeye's, but it's a popular chain with more than 800 restaurants in eight states.

"Bojangles is a Carolina-born restaurant chain specializing in craveable Southern chicken, biscuits and tea made fresh daily from real recipes, and with a friendly smile," the chain says on its website. "Founded in 1977 as a single location in Charlotte, our beloved brand continues to grow nationwide."

Like RBI, Bojangles uses a franchise model, which makes it dependent on the financial health of its operators. The company ultimately saw all its Maryland locations close due to the financial situation of one of its franchisees.

Unlike. RBI, Bojangles is not public — it was taken private by Durational Capital Management LP and Jordan Co. in 2018 — which means the company does not disclose its financial information to the public. 

That makes it hard to know whether overall softness for the brand contributed to the chain seeing its five Maryland locations after a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing.

Bojangles has a messy bankruptcy situation

Even though the locations still appear on the Bojangles website, they have been shuttered since late 2023. The locations were operated by Salim Kakakhail and Yavir Akbar Durranni. The partners operated under a variety of LLCs, including ABS Network, according to local news channel WUSA9

The station reported that the owners face a state investigation over complaints of wage theft and fraudulent W2s. In November Durranni and ABS Network filed for bankruptcy in New Jersey, WUSA9 reported.

"Not only do former employees say these men owe them money, WUSA9 learned the former owners owe the state, too, and have over $69,000 in back property taxes."

Former employees also say that the restaurant would regularly purchase fried chicken from Popeyes and Safeway when it ran out in their stores, the station reported. 

Bojangles sent the station a comment on the situation.

"The franchisee is no longer in the Bojangles system," the company said. "However, it is important to note in your coverage that franchisees are independent business owners who are licensed to operate a brand but have autonomy over many aspects of their business, including hiring employees and payroll responsibilities."

Kakakhail and Durranni did not respond to multiple requests for comment from WUSA9.

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Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in February

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in February after declining 0.5 percent in January. In February, the output of manufacturing rose 0.8 percent and the index for mining climbed 2.2 p…

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From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in February after declining 0.5 percent in January. In February, the output of manufacturing rose 0.8 percent and the index for mining climbed 2.2 percent. Both gains partly reflected recoveries from weather-related declines in January. The index for utilities fell 7.5 percent in February because of warmer-than-typical temperatures. At 102.3 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in February was 0.2 percent below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector remained at 78.3 percent in February, a rate that is 1.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.
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Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Capacity utilization at 78.3% is 1.3% below the average from 1972 to 2022.  This was below consensus expectations.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.


Industrial Production The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased to 102.3. This is above the pre-pandemic level.

Industrial production was above consensus expectations.

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