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Northwest Bancshares, Inc. Announces First Quarter 2023 Earnings and Quarterly Dividend

Northwest Bancshares, Inc. Announces First Quarter 2023 Earnings and Quarterly Dividend
PR Newswire
COLUMBUS, Ohio, April 24, 2023

COLUMBUS, Ohio, April 24, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — Northwest Bancshares, Inc., (the “Company”), (NasdaqGS: NWBI) announce…

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Northwest Bancshares, Inc. Announces First Quarter 2023 Earnings and Quarterly Dividend

PR Newswire

COLUMBUS, Ohio, April 24, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Northwest Bancshares, Inc., (the "Company"), (NasdaqGS: NWBI) announced net income for the quarter ended March 31, 2023 of $33.7 million, or $0.26 per diluted share. This represents an increase of $5.4 million, or 19.1%, compared to the same quarter last year, when net income was $28.3 million, or $0.22 per diluted share. The annualized returns on average shareholders' equity and average assets for the quarter ended March 31, 2023 were 9.11% and 0.97% compared to 7.17% and 0.80% for the same quarter last year.

The Company also announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per share payable on May 15, 2023 to shareholders of record as of May 4, 2023. This is the 114th consecutive quarter in which the Company has paid a cash dividend. Based on the market value of the Company's common stock as of March 31, 2023, this represents an annualized dividend yield of approximately 6.7%.

Louis J. Torchio, President and CEO, added, "The loan growth momentum during the prior year carried into the current quarter with loan growth of $171.8 million, or 1.6%, primarily in our commercial loan portfolios generated through our Corporate Finance group, and our newly launched Equipment Finance and Small Business teams. We are pleased to see this loan growth was funded primarily through the growth in our deposit base, which increased $72.6 million from the prior quarter. Although our yield on interest earning assets has continued to increase to 4.15%, our net interest margin began to tighten, declining by 10 basis points to 3.47%, due to the current interest rate environment and our funding needs. Asset quality metrics remain strong with nonperforming and classified assets dropping to $79.8 million and $208.6 million, respectively."

Mr. Torchio continued, "I am also pleased to report that we have been able to maintain our current deposit base and have not seen outsized deposit outflows due to the recent events in the banking industry. Our uninsured deposits, excluding intercompany accounts and collateralized public funds, continue to remain low at $1.6 billion, or 13.6% of our total deposit base. This low level of uninsured deposits also emphasizes the granularity and diversity of our deposit base with an overall average balance of approximately $16,000.  Additionally, our funding availability at March 31, 2023 was approximately $3.6 billion while borrowed funds outstanding were $688.6 million. We are pleased with our current liquidity levels and deposit mix and believe they leave us well positioned for the year."

Net interest income increased by $21.8 million, or 24.1%, to $112.5 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2023, from $90.6 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2022. This increase in net interest income is a result of both the increase in market interest rates and the change in our interest-earning asset mix throughout 2022 and continuing in the first quarter of 2023. Cash in interest-earning deposits was redeployed into higher yielding loans, which, along with higher market interest rates, caused the yield on interest-earning asset to increase to 4.15% for the quarter ended March 31, 2023 from 2.93% for the quarter ended March 31, 2022. Interest income on loans receivable increased $35.6 million, or 40.3%, due to an increase of $988.3 million, or 10.0%, in the average balance of loans in addition to an increase in the yield on loans to 4.63% for the quarter ended March 31, 2023 from 3.63% for the quarter ended March 31, 2022. Partially offsetting this increase in interest income was an increase in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities to 0.96% for the quarter ended March 31, 2023 from 0.25% for the quarter ended March 31, 2022. This increase was largely due to higher market interest rates causing an increase in both deposit and borrowing costs. The net effect of these changes in interest rates and average balances was an increase in the Company's net interest margin to 3.47% for the quarter ended March 31, 2023 from 2.75% for the same quarter last year.

The provision for credit losses increased by $4.9 million, to $5.0 million for the current quarter ended March 31, 2023 from $115,000 for the quarter ended March 31, 2022. This increase was primarily due to growth within our loan portfolio year over year, as well as forecasted economic deterioration reflected in our allowance for credit loss models. The Company continued to experience improvement in asset quality as classified loans decreased by $111.3 million, or 34.8%, to $208.6 million, or 1.88% of total loans, at March 31, 2023 from $319.9 million, or 3.15% of total loans, at March 31, 2022. Total delinquent loans also decreased to $73.4 million, or just 0.66% of loans receivable, at March 31, 2023 from $75.4 million, or 0.74% of gross loans, at March 31, 2022. 

Noninterest income decreased by $1.8 million, or 6.9%, to $24.0 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2023, from $25.7 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2022. This decrease was primarily due to a decrease in mortgage banking income of $941,000, or 64.2%, to $524,000 for the quarter ended March 31, 2023 from $1.5 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2022. This decrease reflects the impact of less favorable pricing in the secondary market, due primarily to the volatile interest rate environment, as well as a decrease in mortgage volumes primarily due to higher market interest rates.

Noninterest expense increased by $7.1 million, or 8.8%, to $87.5 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2023 from $80.3 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2022. This increase primarily resulted from a $2.2 million, or 84.9%, increase in professional services to $4.8 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2023 from $2.6 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2022 due to the use of third-party consulting and staffing support. Also contributing to this variance was a $1.8 million increase in processing expenses to $14.4 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2023, from $12.5 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2022 due to the implementation of additional third party software programs. Merger, asset disposition and restructuring expense increased $1.4 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2023 due to the severance and fixed asset charges related to the branch optimization and personnel reduction announced during the fourth quarter of 2022. Lastly, FDIC insurance premiums increased $1.1 million to $2.2 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2023 from $1.1 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2022 due to an increase in the deposit insurance assessment rate beginning in the first quarter of 2023.

The provision for income taxes increased by $2.7 million, or 35.4%, to $10.3 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2023 from $7.6 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2022 due primarily to an increase in income before taxes in the current year.

Headquartered in Columbus, Ohio, Northwest Bancshares, Inc. is the bank holding company of Northwest Bank. Founded in 1896 and headquartered in Warren, Pennsylvania, Northwest Bank is a full-service financial institution offering a complete line of business and personal banking products, as well as employee benefits and wealth management services. As of March 31, 2023, Northwest operated 142 full-service community banking offices and eight free standing drive-through facilities in Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio and Indiana. Northwest Bancshares, Inc.'s common stock is listed on the NASDAQ Global Select Market ("NWBI"). Additional information regarding Northwest Bancshares, Inc. and Northwest Bank can be accessed on-line at www.northwest.com.

Forward-Looking Statements - This release may contain forward-looking statements with respect to the financial condition and results of operations of Northwest Bancshares, Inc. including, without limitations, statements relating to the earnings outlook of the Company. These forward-looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by such forward-looking statements, include among others, the following possibilities: (1) changes in the interest rate environment; (2) competitive pressure among financial services companies; (3) general economic conditions including inflation and an increase in non-performing loans; (4) changes in legislation or regulatory requirements; (5) difficulties in continuing to improve operating efficiencies; (6) difficulties in the integration of acquired businesses or the ability to complete sales transactions; (7) increased risk associated with commercial real-estate and business loans; (8) changes in liquidity, including the size and composition of our deposit portfolio; and (9) the effect of any pandemic, including COVID-19, war or act of terrorism. Management has no obligation to revise or update these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances that arise after the date of this release.

 

Northwest Bancshares, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Consolidated Statements of Financial Condition (Unaudited)

(dollars in thousands, except per share amounts)



March 31,
2023


December 31,
2022


March 31,
2022

Assets






Cash and cash equivalents

$         96,497


139,365


1,161,006

Marketable securities available-for-sale (amortized cost of $1,402,805, $1,431,728 and $1,542,170, respectively)

1,205,510


1,218,108


1,442,098

Marketable securities held-to-maturity (fair value of $750,345, $751,384 and $677,376, respectively)

866,022


881,249


737,730

Total cash and cash equivalents and marketable securities

2,168,029


2,238,722


3,340,834







Loans held-for-sale

7,006


9,913


19,272

Residential mortgage loans

3,499,078


3,488,686


3,102,617

Home equity loans

1,281,546


1,297,674


1,286,520

Consumer loans

2,232,133


2,168,655


1,895,981

Commercial real estate loans

2,826,485


2,823,555


2,959,893

Commercial loans

1,246,023


1,131,969


874,751

Total loans receivable

11,092,271


10,920,452


10,139,034

Allowance for credit losses

(121,257)


(118,036)


(99,295)

Loans receivable, net

10,971,014


10,802,416


10,039,739







FHLB stock, at cost

41,519


40,143


13,318

Accrued interest receivable

36,177


35,528


26,268

Real estate owned, net

524


413


929

Premises and equipment, net

140,301


145,909


149,970

Bank-owned life insurance

256,310


255,062


254,109

Goodwill

380,997


380,997


380,997

Other intangible assets, net

7,651


8,560


11,654

Other assets

191,294


205,574


193,365

Total assets

$   14,193,816


14,113,324


14,411,183

Liabilities and shareholders' equity






Liabilities






Noninterest-bearing demand deposits

$     2,896,092


2,993,243


3,128,849

Interest-bearing demand deposits

2,541,503


2,686,431


2,891,622

Money market deposit accounts

2,328,050


2,457,569


2,680,613

Savings deposits

2,194,743


2,275,020


2,367,438

Time deposits

1,576,791


1,052,285


1,251,878

Total deposits

11,537,179


11,464,548


12,320,400







Borrowed funds

688,641


681,166


121,436

Subordinated debt

113,927


113,840


123,670

Junior subordinated debentures

129,379


129,314


129,119

Advances by borrowers for taxes and insurance

49,893


47,613


44,022

Accrued interest payable

2,236


3,231


563

Other liabilities

159,286


182,126


148,461

Total liabilities

12,680,541


12,621,838


12,887,671

Shareholders' equity






Preferred stock, $0.01 par value: 50,000,000 shares authorized, no shares issued



Common stock, $0.01 par value: 500,000,000 shares authorized, 127,065,400, 127,028,848 and 126,686,373 shares issued and outstanding, respectively

1,271


1,270


1,267

Additional paid-in capital

1,020,855


1,019,647


1,012,308

Retained earnings

649,672


641,727


612,481

Accumulated other comprehensive loss

(158,523)


(171,158)


(102,544)

Total shareholders' equity

1,513,275


1,491,486


1,523,512

Total liabilities and shareholders' equity

$   14,193,816


14,113,324


14,411,183







Equity to assets

10.66 %


10.57 %


10.57 %

Tangible common equity to assets*

8.15 %


8.03 %


8.07 %

Book value per share

$           11.91


11.74


12.03

Tangible book value per share*

$             8.85


8.67


8.93

Closing market price per share

$           12.03


13.98


13.51

Full time equivalent employees

2,066


2,160


2.268

Number of banking offices

150


150


170

*

Excludes goodwill and other intangible assets (non-GAAP).

 

Northwest Bancshares, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Consolidated Statements of Income (Unaudited)

(dollars in thousands, except per share amounts)



Quarter ended


March 31,
2023


December 31,
2022


September 30,
2022


June 30,
2022


March 31,
2022






Interest income:










Loans receivable

$     123,745


117,137


106,943


95,574


88,174

Mortgage-backed securities

8,537


8,603


8,683


7,158


6,360

Taxable investment securities

845


840


838


715


677

Tax-free investment securities

700


701


709


683


674

FHLB stock dividends

690


419


148


82


81

Interest-earning deposits

423


153


1,295


1,684


467

Total interest income

134,940


127,853


118,616


105,896


96,433

Interest expense:










Deposits

11,238


3,871


3,157


3,341


3,751

Borrowed funds

11,238


6,938


2,710


2,290


2,059

Total interest expense

22,476


10,809


5,867


5,631


5,810

Net interest income

112,464


117,044


112,749


100,265


90,623

   Provision for credit losses - loans

4,870


9,023


7,689


2,629


(1,481)

Provision for credit losses - unfunded commitments (1)

126


1,876


3,585


3,396


1,596

Net interest income after provision for credit losses

107,468


106,145


101,475


94,240


90,508

Noninterest income:










Loss on sale of investments


(1)


(2)


(3)


(2)

Service charges and fees

13,189


14,125


14,323


13,673


13,067

Trust and other financial services income

6,449


6,642


6,650


7,461


7,012

Gain/(loss) on real estate owned, net

108


51


290


291


(29)

Income from bank-owned life insurance

1,269


1,663


1,475


2,008


1,983

Mortgage banking income

524


477


766


2,157


1,465

Other operating income

2,430


4,901


3,301


4,861


2,244

Total noninterest income

23,969


27,858


26,803


30,448


25,740

Noninterest expense:










Compensation and employee benefits

46,604


46,658


46,711


48,073


46,917

Premises and occupancy costs

7,471


7,370


7,171


7,280


7,797

Office operations

3,010


3,544


3,229


3,162


3,383

Collections expense

387


563


322


403


520

Processing expenses

14,350


13,585


13,416


12,947


12,548

Marketing expenses

2,892


2,773


2,147


2,047


2,128

Federal deposit insurance premiums

2,223


1,319


1,200


1,130


1,129

Professional services

4,758


5,434


3,363


3,333


2,573

Amortization of intangible assets

909


932


1,047


1,115


1,183

Real estate owned expense

181


53


61


72


37

Merger, asset disposition and restructuring expense

2,802


4,243




1,374

Other expenses

1,863


2,304


321


1,849


759

Total noninterest expense

87,450


88,778


78,988


81,411


80,348

Income before income taxes

43,987


45,225


49,290


43,277


35,900

Income tax expense

10,308


10,576


11,986


9,851


7,613

Net income

$      33,679


34,649


37,304


33,426


28,287











Basic earnings per share

$          0.27


0.27


0.29


0.26


0.22

Diluted earnings per share

$          0.26


0.27


0.29


0.26


0.22











Annualized return on average equity

9.11 %


9.38 %


9.84 %


8.90 %


7.17 %

Annualized return on average assets

0.97 %


0.98 %


1.05 %


0.94 %


0.80 %

Annualized return on tangible common equity *

12.15 %


12.48 %


13.84 %


12.16 %


10.14 %











Efficiency ratio (1) **

61.38 %


57.70 %


55.85 %


61.43 %


66.85 %

Annualized noninterest expense to average assets (1) **

2.40 %


2.37 %


2.20 %


2.26 %


2.19 %



(1)

Reclassified from other expenses for periods prior to March 31, 2023. Respective ratios updated for reclassification.

  *

Excludes goodwill and other intangible assets (non-GAAP).

**

Excludes amortization of intangible assets and merger, asset disposition and restructuring expenses (non-GAAP).

 

Northwest Bancshares, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Reconciliation of Non-GAAP to GAAP Net Income (Unaudited) *

(dollars in thousands, except per share amounts)



Quarter ended March 31,


2023


2022

Operating results (non-GAAP):




Net interest income

$               112,464


90,623

Provision for credit losses

4,996


115

Noninterest income

23,969


25,740

Noninterest expense

84,648


78,974

Income taxes

11,093


7,998

Net operating income (non-GAAP)

$                 35,696


29,276

Diluted earnings per share (non-GAAP)

$                     0.28


0.23





Average equity

$            1,498,825


1,600,728

Average assets

14,121,496


14,423,574

Annualized return on average equity (non-GAAP)

9.66 %


7.42 %

Annualized return on average assets (non-GAAP)

1.03 %


0.82 %





Reconciliation of net operating income to net income:




Net operating income (non-GAAP)

$                35,696


29,276

Non-GAAP adjustments, net of tax:




Merger, asset disposition and restructuring expense

(2,017)


(989)

Net income (GAAP)

$                33,679


28,287

Diluted earnings per share (GAAP)

$                    0.26


0.22





Annualized return on average equity (GAAP)

9.11 %


7.17 %

Annualized return on average assets (GAAP)

0.97 %


0.80 %





Tangible common equity to tangible assets, including unrealized losses on held-to-maturity investments




  Total shareholders' equity

1,513,275


1,523,512

  Less: goodwill and intangible assets

388,648


392,651

  Less: unrealized losses on held-to-maturity investments, net of tax

83,287


43,455

  Tangible common equity, including unrealized losses on held-to-maturity investments

1,041,340


1,087,406





   Total assets

14,193,816


14,411,183

   Less: goodwill and intangible assets

388,648


392,651

   Tangible assets

13,805,168


14,018,532





Tangible common equity to tangible assets, including unrealized losses on held-to-maturity investments

7.54 %


7.76 %



*

The table summarizes the Company's results from operations on a GAAP basis and on an operating (non-GAAP) basis for the periods indicated. Operating results exclude merger, asset disposition and restructuring expense. The net tax effect was calculated using statutory tax rates of approximately 28.0%. The company believes this non-GAAP presentation provides a meaningful comparison of operational performance and facilitates a more effective evaluation and comparison of results to assess performance in relation to ongoing operations.

 

Northwest Bancshares, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Deposits (Unaudited)

(dollars in thousands)


Generally, deposits in excess of $250,000 are not federally insured. The following table
provides details around the Company's uninsured deposits portfolio: 




As of March 31, 2023


Balance


Percent of
total deposits


Number of
relationships

Uninsured deposits per the Call Report (1)

$              2,917,743


25.29 %


4,950

Less intercompany deposit accounts

787,363


6.82 %


13

Less collateralized deposit accounts

564,787


4.90 %


275

Adjusted balance of uninsured deposits

$              1,565,593


13.57 %


4,662



(1)

Uninsured deposits presented may be different from actual amounts due to titling of accounts.


Our largest uninsured depositor, excluding intercompany and collateralized deposit accounts, had an aggregate uninsured deposit balance of $34.0 million, or 0.29% of total deposits, as of March 31, 2023. Our top ten largest uninsured depositors, excluding intercompany and collateralized deposit accounts, had an aggregate uninsured deposit balance of $148.2 million, or 1.28% of total deposits, as of March 31, 2023. The average adjusted uninsured deposit account balance was $336,000 as of March 31, 2023.


The following table provides additional details over the Company's deposit portfolio:



As of March 31, 2023


Balance


Percent of
total deposits


Number of
accounts

Personal noninterest bearing demand deposits

$              1,428,232


12.38 %


291,561

Business noninterest bearing demand deposits

1,467,860


12.72 %


45,924

Personal interest-bearing demand deposits

1,627,546


14.11 %


60,459

Business interest-bearing demand deposits

913,957


7.92 %


8,451

Personal money market deposits

1,626,614


14.10 %


26,867

Business money market deposits

701,436


6.08 %


3,008

Savings deposits

2,194,743


19.02 %


216,358

Time deposits

1,576,791


13.67 %


61,779

Total deposits

$            11,537,179


100.00 %


714,407


Our average deposit account balance as of March 31, 2023 was $16,000. The Company's insured cash sweep deposit balance was $161.6 million as of

March 31, 2023.

 

Northwest Bancshares, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Marketable Securities (Unaudited)

(dollars in thousands)




March 31, 2023



Marketable securities available-for-sale


Amortized cost


Gross unrealized

holding gains


Gross unrealized

holding losses


Fair value


Weighted average
duration

   Debt issued by the U.S. government and agencies:











  Due after one year through five years


$              20,000



(1,421)


18,579


3.60

  Due after ten years


52,089



(9,653)


42,436


6.28












   Debt issued by government sponsored enterprises:











   Due after one year through five years


20,983



(2,680)


18,303


4.73

   Due after five years through ten years


25,600



(3,623)


21,977


5.25












   Municipal securities:











   Due within one year


503




503


0.25

   Due after one year through five years


990


27


(12)


1,005


2.59

   Due after five years through ten years


38,384


1


(1,612)


36,773


4.72

   Due after ten years


87,322


131


(11,059)


76,394


9.04












   Corporate debt issues:











   Due after five years through ten years


13,528



(958)


12,570


5.62












   Residential mortgage-backed agency securities:











   Fixed rate pass-through


221,361


49


(28,136)


193,274


6.02

   Variable rate pass-through


8,287


4


(149)


8,142


4.24

   Fixed rate agency CMOs


886,717



(137,663)


749,054


5.22

   Variable rate agency CMOs


27,041


35


(576)


26,500


3.98

   Total residential mortgage-backed agency securities


1,143,406


88


(166,524)


976,970


5.34

   Total marketable securities available-for-sale


$         1,402,805


247


(197,542)


1,205,510


5.55












Marketable securities held-to-maturity











Government sponsored











Due after one year through five years


$              29,477



(3,131)


26,346


3.68

Due after five years through ten years


94,978



(15,560)


79,418


5.72












   Residential mortgage-backed agency securities:











   Fixed rate pass-through


$            159,504



(22,260)


137,244


5.58

   Variable rate pass-through


521



(7)


514


4.64

   Fixed rate agency CMOs


581,013



(74,710)


506,303


6.76

   Variable rate agency CMOs


529



(9)


520


6.16

   Total residential mortgage-backed agency securities


741,567



(96,986)


644,581


6.51

   Total marketable securities held-to-maturity


$            866,022



(115,677)


750,345


6.32

 

Northwest Bancshares, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Borrowed Funds (Unaudited)

(dollars in thousands)



March 31, 2023


Amount


Average rate

Term notes payable to the FHLB of Pittsburgh, due within one year

$                        403,000


5.17 %

Notes payable to the FHLB of Pittsburgh, due within one year

183,700


5.15 %

      Total term notes payable to the FHLB

586,700


5.17 %





Collateralized borrowings, due within one year

83,290


1.16 %

Collateral received, due within one year

18,651


5.17 %

Subordinated debentures, net of issuance costs

113,927


4.28 %

Junior subordinated debentures

129,379


6.77 %

      Total borrowed funds *

$                        931,947


4.92 %



*

As of March 31, 2023, the Company had $3.2 billion of additional borrowing capacity available with the FHLB of Pittsburgh, including a $250.0 million overnight line of credit, which had a $183.7 million drawn balance, as well as $305.0 million of borrowing capacity available with the Federal Reserve Bank and $105.0 million with two correspondent banks.

 

Northwest Bancshares, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Analysis of Loan Portfolio by Loan Sector (Unaudited) 


 Commercial real estate loans outstanding

The following table provides the various loan sectors in our commercial real estate portfolio at March 31, 2023:




March 31, 2023

Property type


Percent of portfolio

5 or more unit dwelling


14.1 %

Nursing home


13.4 %

Retail building


11.9 %

Commercial office building - non-owner occupied


8.6 %

Residential acquisition & development - 1-4 family, townhouses and apartments


5.7 %

Manufacturing & industrial building


3.6 %

Commercial acquisition and development


3.6 %

Warehouse/storage building


3.5 %

Multi-use building - office and warehouse


3.5 %

Commercial office building - owner occupied


3.4 %

Hotel/motel


3.1 %

Single family dwelling


3.0 %

Other medical facility


2.7 %

Student housing


2.7 %

Multi-use building - commercial, retail and residential


2.6 %

2-4 family


2.4 %

Agricultural real estate


2.3 %

All other


9.9 %

   Total


100.0 %



The following table provides our commercial real estate portfolio by state at March 31, 2023:




March 31, 2023

State


Percent of portfolio

New York


31.0 %

Pennsylvania


30.6 %

Ohio


19.4 %

Indiana


8.7 %

Virginia


2.3 %

All other


8.0 %

   Total


100.0 %

 

Northwest Bancshares, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Asset Quality (Unaudited)

(dollars in thousands)



March 31,
2023


December 31,
2022


September 30,
2022


June 30,
2022


March 31,
2022

Nonaccrual loans current:










Residential mortgage loans

$           1,423


1,496


2,186


1,970


1,884

Home equity loans

1,084


1,418


1,158


1,337


1,376

Consumer loans

911


836


833


976


1,148

Commercial real estate loans

50,045


53,303


56,193


60,537


79,810

Commercial loans

1,468


895


1,801


5,270


6,060

Total nonaccrual loans current

$         54,931


57,948


62,171


70,090


90,278

Nonaccrual loans delinquent 30 days to 59 days:










Residential mortgage loans

$              688


473


54


2


760

Home equity loans

18


180


316


172


195

Consumer loans

223


178


155


158


190

Commercial real estate loans

1,900


1,220


55


911


333

Commercial loans

341


145


237


358


4

Total nonaccrual loans delinquent 30 days to 59 days

$           3,170


2,196


817


1,601


1,482

Nonaccrual loans delinquent 60 days to 89 days:










Residential mortgage loans

$              919


31


32


199


830

Home equity loans

338


290


432


566


371

Consumer loans

340


341


382


226


280

Commercial real estate loans

1,355


473


848


630


Commercial loans

126


96


132


73


Total nonaccrual loans delinquent 60 days to 89 days

$           3,078


1,231


1,826


1,694


1,481

Nonaccrual loans delinquent 90 days or more:










Residential mortgage loans

$           3,300


5,574


5,544


5,445


3,976

Home equity loans

2,190


2,257


1,779


2,081


2,968

Consumer loans

2,791


2,672


2,031


1,942


1,782

Commercial real estate loans

8,010


7,867


8,821


14,949


21,399

Commercial loans

1,139


1,491


638


583


795

Total nonaccrual loans delinquent 90 days or more

$         17,430


19,861


18,813


25,000


30,920

Total nonaccrual loans

$         78,609


81,236


83,627


98,385


124,161

Total nonaccrual loans

$         78,609


81,236


83,627


98,385


124,161

Loans 90 days past due and still accruing

652


744


357


379


420

Nonperforming loans

79,261


81,980


83,984


98,764


124,581

Real estate owned, net

524


413


450


1,205


929

Nonperforming assets

$         79,785


82,393


84,434


99,969


125,510











Nonperforming loans to total loans

0.71 %


0.75 %


0.78 %


0.95 %


1.23 %

Nonperforming assets to total assets

0.56 %


0.58 %


0.61 %


0.71 %


0.87 %

Allowance for credit losses to total loans

1.09 %


1.08 %


1.02 %


0.94 %


0.98 %

Allowance for total loans excluding PPP loan balances

1.09 %


1.08 %


1.02 %


0.95 %


0.98 %

Allowance for credit losses to nonperforming loans

152.98 %


143.98 %


130.76 %


99.59 %


79.70 %

 

Northwest Bancshares, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Loans by Credit Quality Indicators (Unaudited)

(dollars in thousands) 


At March 31, 2023


Pass


Special

   mention *


Substandard

**


Doubtful


Loss


Loans

receivable

Personal Banking:













  Residential mortgage loans


$       3,499,135



6,330




3,505,465

  Home equity loans


1,277,915



3,631




1,281,546

  Consumer loans


2,227,379



4,754




2,232,133

Total Personal Banking


7,004,429



14,715




7,019,144

Commercial Banking:













  Commercial real estate loans


2,585,676


69,837


171,591




2,827,104

  Commercial loans


1,217,344


6,381


22,298




1,246,023

Total Commercial Banking


3,803,020


76,218


193,889




4,073,127

Total loans


$     10,807,449


76,218


208,604




11,092,271

At December 31, 2022













Personal Banking:













  Residential mortgage loans


$       3,484,870



13,729




3,498,599

  Home equity loans


1,292,146



5,528




1,297,674

  Consumer loans


2,164,220



4,435




2,168,655

Total Personal Banking


6,941,236



23,692




6,964,928

Commercial Banking:













  Commercial real estate loans


2,579,809


55,076


188,670




2,823,555

  Commercial loans


1,100,707


7,384


23,878




1,131,969

Total Commercial Banking


3,680,516


62,460


212,548




3,955,524

Total loans


$     10,621,752


62,460


236,240




10,920,452

At September 30, 2022













Personal Banking:













  Residential mortgage loans


$       3,388,168



13,730




3,401,898

  Home equity loans


1,279,968



5,021




1,284,989

  Consumer loans


2,112,478



3,760




2,116,238

Total Personal Banking


6,780,614



22,511




6,803,125

Commercial Banking:













  Commercial real estate loans


2,589,648


34,684


188,498




2,812,830

  Commercial loans


1,094,830


4,004


26,736




1,125,570

Total Commercial Banking


3,684,478


38,688


215,234




3,938,400

Total loans


$     10,465,092


38,688


237,745




10,741,525

At June 30, 2022













Personal Banking:













  Residential mortgage loans


$       3,273,117



13,658




3,286,775

  Home equity loans


1,275,124



5,368




1,280,492

  Consumer loans


1,998,863



3,682




2,002,545

Total Personal Banking


6,547,104



22,708




6,569,812

Commercial Banking:













  Commercial real estate loans


2,600,207


51,540


224,429




2,876,176

  Commercial loans


954,129


2,468


30,239




986,836

Total Commercial Banking


3,554,336


54,008


254,668




3,863,012

Total loans


$     10,101,440


54,008


277,376




10,432,824

At March 31, 2022













Personal Banking:













  Residential mortgage loans


$       3,108,366



13,523




3,121,889

  Home equity loans


1,280,342



6,178




1,286,520

  Consumer loans


1,892,162



3,819




1,895,981

Total Personal Banking


6,280,870



23,520




6,304,390

Commercial Banking:













  Commercial real estate loans


2,633,808


62,091


263,994




2,959,893

  Commercial loans


839,125


3,277


32,349




874,751

Total Commercial Banking


3,472,933


65,368


296,343




3,834,644

Total loans


$       9,753,803


65,368


319,863




10,139,034



*

Includes $7.4 million, $7.4 million, $4.5 million, $7.4 million, and $4.4 million of acquired loans at March 31, 2023, December 31, 2022, September 30, 2022,

June 30, 2022, and March 31, 2022, respectively.

**

Includes $31.9 million, $39.1 million, $51.4 million, $59.3 million, and $71.9 million of acquired loans at March 31, 2023, December 31, 2022, September 30, 2022, June 30, 2022, and March 31, 2022, respectively.

 

Northwest Bancshares, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Loan Delinquency (Unaudited)

(dollars in thousands)



March 31,
2023


*


December 31,
2022


*


September 30,
2022


*


June 30,
2022


*


March 31,
2022


*

(Number of loans and dollar amount of loans)






























Loans delinquent 30 days to 59 days:






























Residential mortgage loans

259


$  26,992


0.8 %


304


$  29,487


0.8 %


26


$   1,052


— %


20


$      785


— %


281


$  24,057


0.8 %

Home equity loans

111


4,235


0.3 %


145


6,657


0.5 %


88


3,278


0.3 %


107


3,664


0.3 %


105


3,867


0.3 %

Consumer loans

587


6,930


0.3 %


737


9,435


0.4 %


549


6,546


0.3 %


563


6,898


0.3 %


523


6,043


0.3 %

Commercial real estate loans

23


4,834


0.2 %


29


4,008


0.1 %


13


1,332


— %


26


2,701


0.1 %


25


3,643


0.1 %

Commercial loans

46


4,253


0.3 %


51


2,648


0.2 %


48


2,582


0.2 %


24


1,486


0.2 %


16


1,268


0.1 %

Total loans delinquent 30 days to 59 days

1,026


$  47,244


0.4 %


1,266


$  52,235


0.5 %


724


$  14,790


0.1 %


740


$  15,534


0.1 %


950


$  38,878


0.4 %































Loans delinquent 60 days to 89 days:






























Residential mortgage loans

23


$   1,922


0.1 %


65


$   5,563


0.2 %


51


$   4,320


0.1 %


61


$   5,941


0.2 %


24


$   1,950


0.1 %

Home equity loans

31


1,061


0.1 %


29


975


0.1 %


36


1,227


0.1 %


28


952


0.1 %


28


1,138


0.1 %

Consumer loans

185


2,083


0.1 %


255


3,070


0.1 %


223


2,663


0.1 %


178


1,460


0.1 %


159


1,839


0.1 %

Commercial real estate loans

17


1,949


0.1 %


16


2,377


0.1 %


13


1,741


0.1 %


9


1,472


0.1 %


1


112


— %

Commercial loans

19


1,088


0.1 %


24


1,115


0.1 %


14


808


0.1 %


6


341


— %


3


103


— %

Total loans delinquent 60 days to 89 days

275


$   8,103


0.1 %


389


$  13,100


0.1 %


337


$  10,759


0.1 %


282


$  10,166


0.1 %


215


$   5,142


0.1 %































Loans delinquent 90 days or more: **






























Residential mortgage loans

39


$   3,300


0.1 %


65


$   5,574


0.2 %


64


$   5,544


0.2 %


63


$   5,445


0.2 %


47


$   3,976


0.1 %

Home equity loans

65


2,190


0.2 %


68


2,257


0.2 %


65


1,779


0.1 %


69


2,081


0.2 %


91


2,968


0.2 %

Consumer loans

313


3,279


0.1 %


334


3,079


0.1 %


289


2,388


0.1 %


286


2,321


0.1 %


287


2,202


0.1 %

Commercial real estate loans

18


8,010


0.3 %


19


7,867


0.3 %


22


8,821


0.3 %


31


14,949


0.5 %


41


21,399


0.7 %

Commercial loans

24


1,302


0.1 %


15


1,829


0.2 %


11


638


0.1 %


10


583


0.1 %


10


795


0.1 %

Total loans delinquent 90 days or more

459


$  18,081


0.2 %


501


$  20,606


0.2 %


451


$  19,170


0.2 %


459


$  25,379


0.2 %


476


$  31,340


0.3 %































Total loans delinquent

1,760


$  73,428


0.7 %


2,156


$  85,941


0.8 %


1,512


$  44,719


0.4 %


1,481


$  51,079


0.5 %


1,641


$  75,360


0.7 %



*

Represents delinquency, in dollars, divided by the respective total amount of that type of loan outstanding.

**

Includes purchased credit deteriorated loans of $331,000, $1.7 million, $783,000, $6.3 million, and $7.1 million at March 31, 2023, December 31, 2022,
September 30, 2022, June 30, 2022, and March 31, 2022, respectively.

 

Northwest Bancshares, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Allowance for Credit Losses (Unaudited)

(dollars in thousands)



Quarter ended


March 31,
2023


December 31,
2022


September 30,
2022


June 30,
2022


March 31,
2022

Beginning balance

$      118,036


109,819


98,355


99,295


102,241

ASU 2022-02 Adoption

426





Provision

4,870


9,023


7,689


2,629


(1,481)

Charge-offs residential mortgage

(207)


(546)


(166)


(138)


(1,183)

Charge-offs home equity

(164)


(232)


(535)


(255)


(447)

Charge-offs consumer

(2,734)


(2,430)


(2,341)


(1,912)


(1,723)

Charge-offs commercial real estate

(657)


(621)


(1,329)


(4,392)


(1,024)

Charge-offs commercial

(865)


(404)


(243)


(329)


(681)

Recoveries

2,552


3,427


8,389


3,457


3,593

Ending balance

$      121,257


118,036


109,819


98,355


99,295

Net charge-offs to average loans, annualized

0.08 %


0.03 %


(0.14) %


0.14 %


0.06 %

 

Northwest Bancshares, Inc. and Subsidiaries

Average Balance Sheet (Unaudited)

(dollars in thousands)


The following table sets forth certain information relating to the Company's average balance sheet and reflects the average yield on assets and average cost of liabilities for the periods indicated. Such yields and costs are derived by dividing income or expense by the average balance of assets or liabilities, respectively, for the periods presented. Average balances are calculated using daily averages.



Quarter ended 


March 31, 2023


December 31, 2022


September 30, 2022


June 30, 2022


March 31, 2022


Average

balance


Interest


Avg.
yield/
cost (h)


Average

balance


Interest


Avg.

yield/

cost (h)


Average

balance


Interest


Avg.

yield/

cost (h)


Average

balance


Interest


Avg.

yield/

cost (h)


Average

balance


Interest


Avg.

yield/

cost (h)

Assets:






























Interest-earning assets:






























  Residential mortgage loans

$  3,493,617


32,009


3.66 %


$  3,439,401


30,974


3.60 %


$  3,331,173


29,414


3.53 %


$  3,171,469


27,327


3.45 %


$  2,980,788


25,542


3.43 %

  Home equity loans

1,284,425


16,134


5.09 %


1,282,733


15,264


4.72 %


1,274,918


13,658


4.25 %


1,277,440


11,961


3.76 %


1,293,986


11,472


3.60 %

  Consumer loans

2,123,672


20,794


3.97 %


2,069,207


19,709


3.78 %


1,981,754


17,256


3.45 %


1,880,769


15,777


3.36 %


1,799,037


14,907


3.36 %

  Commercial real estate loans

2,824,120


37,031


5.24 %


2,822,008


35,428


4.91 %


2,842,597


34,158


4.70 %


2,915,750


31,844


4.32 %


3,000,204


29,757


3.97 %

  Commercial loans

1,161,298


18,353


6.32 %


1,113,178


16,315


5.74 %


1,050,124


12,978


4.84 %


912,454


9,090


3.94 %


824,770


6,897


3.34 %

Total loans receivable (a) (b) (d)

10,887,132


124,321


4.63 %


10,726,527


117,690


4.35 %


10,480,566


107,464


4.07 %


10,157,882


95,999


3.79 %


9,898,785


88,575


3.63 %

Mortgage-backed securities (c)

1,909,676


8,537


1.79 %


1,956,167


8,603


1.76 %


2,019,715


8,683


1.72 %


1,952,375


7,158


1.47 %


1,945,173


6,360


1.31 %

Investment securities (c) (d)

384,717


1,761


1.83 %


386,468


1,753


1.81 %


388,755


1,762


1.81 %


376,935


1,590


1.69 %


373,694


1,540


1.65 %

FHLB stock, at cost

39,631


690


7.06 %


26,827


419


6.19 %


14,028


148


4.19 %


13,428


82


2.44 %


13,870


81


2.38 %

Other interest-earning deposits

30,774


423


5.50 %


9,990


153


5.99 %


253,192


1,295


2.00 %


846,142


1,684


0.79 %


1,218,960


467


0.15 %

Total interest-earning assets

13,251,930


135,732


4.15 %


13,105,979


128,618


3.89 %


13,156,256


119,352


3.60 %


13,346,762


106,513


3.20 %


13,450,482


97,023


2.93 %

Noninterest-earning assets (e)

869,566






877,121






896,663






909,943






973,092





Total assets

$   14,121,496






$   13,983,100






$   14,052,919






$   14,256,705






$   14,423,574





Liabilities and shareholders' equity:






























Interest-bearing liabilities:






























Savings deposits (g)

$  2,198,988


690


0.13 %


$  2,298,451


585


0.10 %


$  2,350,248


594


0.10 %


$  2,361,919


589


0.10 %


$  2,334,494


592


0.10 %

Interest-bearing demand deposits (g)

2,612,883


951


0.15 %


2,718,360


509


0.07 %


2,794,338


360


0.05 %


2,857,336


310


0.04 %


2,875,430


321


0.05 %

Money market deposit accounts (g)

2,408,582


4,403


0.74 %


2,512,892


1,310


0.21 %


2,620,850


692


0.10 %


2,653,467


668


0.10 %


2,668,105


653


0.10 %

Time deposits (g)

1,293,609


5,194


1.63 %


1,024,895


1,467


0.57 %


1,110,906


1,511


0.54 %


1,220,815


1,774


0.58 %


1,292,608


2,185


0.69 %

Borrowed funds (f)

740,218


7,938


4.35 %


451,369


3,967


3.49 %


127,073


239


0.75 %


123,749


167


0.54 %


135,289


158


0.47 %

Subordinated debt

113,870


1,148


4.03 %


113,783


1,148


4.04 %


113,695


1,149


4.04 %


119,563


1,203


4.03 %


123,608


1,250


4.05 %

Junior subordinated debentures

129,335


2,152


6.66 %


129,271


1,823


5.52 %


129,207


1,322


4.00 %


129,142


920


2.82 %


129,077


651


2.02 %

Total interest-bearing liabilities

9,497,485


22,476


0.96 %


9,249,021


10,809


0.46 %


9,246,317


5,867


0.25 %


9,465,991


5,631


0.24 %


9,558,611


5,810


0.25 %

Noninterest-bearing demand deposits (g)

2,889,973






3,039,000






3,093,490






3,090,372






3,060,698





Noninterest-bearing liabilities

235,213






229,794






209,486






193,510






203,537





Total liabilities

12,622,671






12,517,815






12,549,293






12,749,873






12,822,846





Shareholders' equity

1,498,825






1,465,285






1,503,626






1,506,832






1,600,728





Total liabilities and shareholders' equity

$   14,121,496






$   13,983,100






$   14,052,919






$   14,256,705






$   14,423,574





Net interest income/Interest rate spread



113,256


3.19 %




117,809


3.43 %




113,485


3.35 %




100,882


2.96 %




91,213


2.68 %

Net interest-earning assets/Net interest margin

$  3,754,445




3.47 %


$  3,856,958




3.57 %


$  3,909,939




3.42 %


$  3,880,771




3.07 %


$  3,891,871




2.75 %

Ratio of interest-earning assets to interest-bearing liabilities

1.40X






1.42X






1.42X






1.41X






1.41X







(a)

Average gross loans receivable includes loans held as available-for-sale and loans placed on nonaccrual status.

(b)

Interest income includes accretion/amortization of deferred loan fees/expenses, which was not material.

(c)

Average balances do not include the effect of unrealized gains or losses on securities held as available-for-sale.

(d)

Interest income on tax-free investment securities and tax-free loans are presented on a fully taxable equivalent ("FTE") basis.

(e)

Average balances include the effect of unrealized gains or losses on securities held as available-for-sale.

(f)

Average balances include FHLB borrowings and collateralized borrowings.

(g)

Average cost of deposits were 0.40%, 0.13%, 0.11%, 0.11%, and 0.12%, respectively and average cost of Interest-bearing deposits were 0.54%, 0.18%, 0.14%, 0.15%, and 0.17%, respectively.

(h)

Shown on a FTE basis. GAAP basis yields for the periods indicated were: Loans — 4.61%, 4.33%, 4.05%, 3.77%, and 3.61%, respectively, Investment securities — 1.61%, 1.59%, 1.59%, 1.48%, and 1.45%, respectively, Interest-earning assets — 4.13%, 3.87%, 3.58%, 3.18%, and 2.91%, respectively. GAAP basis net interest rate spreads were 3.17%, 3.41%, 3.33%, 2.94%, and 2.66%, respectively, and GAAP basis net interest margins were 3.44%, 3.54%, 3.40%, 3.05%, and 2.73%, respectively.

 

View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/northwest-bancshares-inc-announces-first-quarter-2023-earnings-and-quarterly-dividend-301804850.html

SOURCE Northwest Bancshares, Inc.

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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