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New blood test for noncoding RNA significantly improves cancer detection

Cancer is most treatable in its early stages, so finding innovative and non-invasive methods to diagnose cancer early on is crucial for fighting the disease….

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Cancer is most treatable in its early stages, so finding innovative and non-invasive methods to diagnose cancer early on is crucial for fighting the disease. Liquid biopsies, which require just a simple blood draw, are an emerging technology for non-invasively testing for cancer using DNA or RNA sequencing of a patient’s blood.

Credit: Carolyn Lagattuta, UC Santa Cruz

Cancer is most treatable in its early stages, so finding innovative and non-invasive methods to diagnose cancer early on is crucial for fighting the disease. Liquid biopsies, which require just a simple blood draw, are an emerging technology for non-invasively testing for cancer using DNA or RNA sequencing of a patient’s blood.

Assistant Professor of Biomolecular Engineering Daniel Kim and his lab are developing more accurate and powerful liquid biopsy technologies that take advantage of signals from RNA “dark matter,” an understudied area of the genome. Kim’s new research shows that this genetic material is present in the blood of people with cancer and can be identified to diagnose specific cancer types such as pancreatic, lung, esophageal, and others early in the course of the disease. 

Kim’s lab developed an RNA liquid biopsy platform that detects both protein-coding RNA and RNA dark matter in the blood, and showed that this new approach significantly improves the performance of liquid biopsy for cancer diagnosis. This research was published today in the journal Nature Biomedical Engineering.

Focus on ‘dark matter’

While most researchers and companies are pursuing DNA-based liquid biopsy for cancer diagnosis, Kim’s approach is unique in its focus on RNA “dark matter,” specifically noncoding and repetitive RNA. 

Most of the three billion base pairs of DNA that make up the human genome are transcribed into RNA, and all of the RNA is collectively known as the transcriptome. The most commonly recognized function of RNA is to code for proteins in the body, but 75% of the human genome generates noncoding RNA that does not code for proteins.

A substantial portion of these noncoding RNAs are derived from repetitive elements, and these RNAs can travel out of the cell from which they originate and into the bloodstream. A healthy individual’s blood typically would have very few of these repetitive noncoding RNAs. However, Kim’s research has shown that even at the earliest stages of cancer, many of these repetitive RNAs are secreted out of cancer cells, making them potent biomarkers of early-stage disease.

RNA liquid biopsy technology developed by the Kim lab aims to detect cancer by sequencing “cell-free RNA” in a patient’s blood to test for the presence of both protein-coding and repetitive noncoding RNA.

Kim’s lab created a cell-free RNA sequencing and analysis platform called COMPLETE-seq to identify repetitive noncoding RNAs that are typically overlooked. After a patient’s blood is drawn, this comprehensive approach analyzes the sample for all of the annotated areas of the transcriptome — the tens of thousands of RNAs that have already been well-documented— plus all of the five million noncoding repetitive elements that Kim’s lab also focuses on. 

“If you look at these different cancers, each has its own characteristic cell-free RNA profile, but a lot of these RNAs are coming from the millions of repeat elements that are found throughout the genome,” Kim said. “What we found was that when we trained machine learning models for cancer classification, the models perform better when you introduce these repetitive cell-free RNAs as additional features. We see higher sensitivity in terms of detecting cancer, so we think that these repeat elements are actually providing a lot of rich cell-free RNA information that people previously hadn’t looked for.” 

Improving tests

Other existing liquid biopsy tests have not been very sensitive for early stage cancer, with some tests missing up to 75% of stage I cancers, when the biological signal is low due to the small tumor size. Kim’s paper shows that incorporating repetitive RNA into their liquid biopsy platform greatly increases the biological signal and boosts the performance of machine learning models tasked to identify cancer. As an example, using COMPLETE-seq improved performance to 91% sensitivity for identifying colorectal cancer. 

“The value of our study is that we’ve now shown the potential of these repeat elements for diagnosing disease, so hopefully there’ll be a lot of interest in leveraging repetitive RNAs to boost the sensitivity of these multi-cancer early detection tests,” Kim said.

The research findings show that this technology can be used to identify a variety of cancer types. The lab initially focused on pancreatic cancer for this study, as there is an urgent clinical need for pancreatic cancer early detection, as late detection leads to worse outcomes for patients. Pancreatic cancer is also known to be driven by mutations in the KRAS gene, which is also a focus of Kim’s lab.

After verifying findings in pancreatic cancer, the researchers also looked at a variety of other cancers, and plan to look at many more cancer types with additional samples across the progressive stages of cancer. The team is interested in collaborating with clinicians and companies to do this. 

Kim’s goal is to develop an RNA liquid biopsy test for multi-cancer early detection, using the rich information from repetitive RNAs to identify and diagnose disease with high sensitivity and specificity. Kim hopes his platform will not only diagnose cancer at the earliest stages but also help guide individualized, precise treatment strategies when the cancer is more treatable. Moreover, his test could help to identify a recurrence of cancer, and also be used to study aging and to diagnose other types of diseases that alter the repetitive RNA landscape, such as Alzheimer’s disease. He recently gave the UCSC Kraw Lecture on “Precision Health for All Through RNA” that laid out his vision for early detection and precise treatment of disease using RNA. 

The researchers also used nanopore sequencing to read the cell-free RNAs floating in the blood, which allowed them to generate long-reads and determine the true length of these cell-free RNAs. Kim believes his lab is the first to use nanopore sequencing, a technique pioneered at UC Santa Cruz, for RNA liquid biopsies to diagnose cancer and to determine the full length of these cell-free RNAs. Nanopore sequencing can be performed on a handheld device developed by Oxford Nanopore Technologies called the MinION. This holds promise for carrying out cancer screening in remote or resource-poor settings where larger, more expensive sequencers are not readily available.

“This study would not have been possible without the strong support of the American Cancer Society and all of its generous donors, leadership, staff, and volunteers, as well as all of the hard work of my PhD student Roman Reggiardo (an NIH F99/K00 Fellow now at HHMI Investigator Howard Chang’s lab at Stanford University) and all of our Kim lab members and collaborators,” Kim said. 

In addition to his role as an Assistant Professor in the Baskin School of Engineering associated with the Institute for the Biology of Stem Cells, the Genomics Institute, and the Center for Molecular Biology of RNA at UC Santa Cruz, Kim is also an Associate Member of the Canary Center at Stanford for Cancer Early Detection and a Research Scholar of the American Cancer Society. 


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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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