Connect with us

Uncategorized

Namkeen market in India to grow by USD 3,162.26 million between 2022 and 2027; Growth driven by rising retail space in Tier-II and Tier-III cities of India – Technavio

Namkeen market in India to grow by USD 3,162.26 million between 2022 and 2027; Growth driven by rising retail space in Tier-II and Tier-III cities of India – Technavio
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, April 21, 2023

NEW YORK, April 21, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — Th…

Published

on

Namkeen market in India to grow by USD 3,162.26 million between 2022 and 2027; Growth driven by rising retail space in Tier-II and Tier-III cities of India - Technavio

PR Newswire

NEW YORK, April 21, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The namkeen market in India size is set to grow by USD 3,162.26 million between 2022 and 2027 and register a CAGR of 8.42%, according to Technavio's latest market research report estimates. With a focus on identifying dominant industry influencers, Technavio's reports present a detailed study by the way of synthesis, and summation of data from multiple sources. Get a comprehensive report summary describing the market size and forecast along with research methodology. Read our Sample Report

Factors such as rising retail space in Tier-II and Tier-III cities of India, evolving taste preferences, and growing preference for savory snacks will offer immense growth opportunities. To leverage the current opportunities, market vendors must strengthen their foothold in the fast-growing segments, while maintaining their positions in the slow-growing segments. The namkeen market in India is fragmented, and the degree of fragmentation will accelerate during the forecast period.

Namkeen Market in India 2023-2027: Segmentation

  • Type 
    • Indian and Ethnic Snacks
    • Western Snacks

The market growth in the Indian and ethnic snacks segment will be significant over the forecast period. The segment includes snacks such as farsaan, chiwda, sev, neyappam, bhujia, and mathri. These snacks were traditionally prepared in Indian households and can be preserved for longer periods. The long preservation time has allowed vendors to pack them and distribute them through retail outlets. The increased availability of these snacks has also led people in India to choose namkeens over Western snacks. All these factors are driving the growth of the segment.

  • Distribution Channel 
    • Offline
    • Online

The offline distribution channel segment will account for the maximum revenue generation in the market over the forecast period. The growth of the segment is driven by the expansion of hypermarkets and supermarkets in India. The ease of availability of products across platforms and the easy accessibility to outlets with a broad merchandise mix are other factors driving the growth of the segment.

The report comprises of various segments as well as analysis of the trends and factors that are playing a substantial role in the market. Download a sample report

Namkeen Market in India 2023-2027: Vendor Analysis and Scope

The namkeen market in India is fragmented with the presence of numerous small and large manufacturers. Changes in consumer consumption pattern may affect vendor performance in the namkeen market in India market. It may also be affected by consumer tastes, global and regional economic conditions, and other demographic trends. The vendors compete based on several factors, such as quality, price, service, brand image, distribution, and marketing. Major vendors are focusing on acquiring other smaller brands to increase their market presence. In addition, the market is witnessing the entry of several private-label brands. Some of the key vendors covered in the report include:

  • Babaji Snacks Pvt. Ltd. - The company offers namkeen such as aloo bhujia.
  • Balaji Wafers Pvt. Ltd. - The company offers namkeen such as ratlami sev.
  • Bikaji Foods International Ltd. - The company offers namkeen such as roasted crushed peanuts.
  • Bikanervala Foods Pvt. Ltd - The company offers namkeen such as Natkhat Nimbu.
  • Ashok Masale
  • Bikharam Chandmal
  • Desai Brothers Ltd.
  • Gopal Snacks Pvt. Ltd
  • ITC Ltd.
  • JABSONS COTTONSEED IND. PVT. LTD.
  • Maa Laxmi Namkeen
  • Maxvita Foods Pvt. Ltd.
  • Parle Products Pvt. Ltd.
  • Patanjali Ayurved Ltd.
  • Prakash Namkeen Udyog

Why Buy?

  • Add credibility to strategy
  • Analyzes competitor's offerings
  • Get a holistic view of the market

Grow your profit margin with Technavio

The report also covers the following areas:

Namkeen Market in India 2023-2027: Key Highlights

  • Driver – The market is driven by the growing demand for growing retail outlets in Tier-II and Tier-III cities. The consumption of retail goods such as namkeen is increasing among Indian cities such as Jaipur, Udaipur, Imphal, Lucknow, and Patna. In addition, the increase in per capita income of these cities has encouraged many retail chains to expand their operations. For instance, as of 2021, Reliance retail has expanded its coverage to up to 2,000 Indian cities, with almost 50% of the average sales coming from tier-II cities. Also, the increased people spending on food and beverage products in offline stores has led various vendors to launch new stores. All these factors are driving the growth of the namkeen market in India.
  • Trend – The growth of online channels is the key trend in the market. The convenience of shopping and attractive prices and discounts offered by e-commerce websites have increased the number of people purchasing online. This growing interest among consumers has encouraged many manufacturers and distributors in the market to focus on online sales. For instance, vendors such as Parle and PepsiCo Inc. are increasingly partnering with online retailers such as Amazon.com Inc. to sell their namkeen products on e-commerce platforms. The market is also witnessing several startups offering namkeens through online retail chains. This trend is expected positively influence the market growth during the forecast period.
  • Challenge – The availability of a wide range of substitute products is a major challenge hindering the growth of the market. There are several alternatives to namkeen such as fried and baked snacks. Vendors offering such substitutes are focused on new product launches and product innovations. In addition, various health benefits offered by substitutes have been encouraging consumers to shift from namkeens as the switching cost for such substitutes is moderate. Thus, the availability of substitutes in the market will challenge the growth of vendors during the forecast period.

Gain instant access to 17,000+ market research reports.
Technavio's SUBSCRIPTION Platform

Namkeen Market in India 2023-2027: Key Highlights

  • CAGR of the market during the forecast period 2023-2027
  • Detailed information on factors that will assist namkeen market growth in India during the next five years
  • Estimation of the namkeen market size in India and its contribution to the parent market
  • Predictions on upcoming trends and changes in consumer behavior
  • The growth of the namkeen market in India
  • Analysis of the market's competitive landscape and detailed information on vendors
  • Comprehensive details of factors that will challenge the growth of namkeen market vendors in India

Related Reports:

The cheese-based snacks market size is expected to increase to USD 3.53 billion from 2021 to 2026, at a CAGR of 5.12%. The market is segmented by end-user (retail and food service) and geography (North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East and Africa).

The savory snacks market size is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 4.91% between 2022 and 2027. The market size is forecast to increase by USD 32.17 billion. The market is segmented by type (potato chips, extruded snacks, nuts and seeds, popcorn, and others), distribution channel (offline and online), and geography (APAC, North America, Europe, South America, and Middle East and Africa)

Namkeen Market in India: Scope

Report Coverage

Details

Base year

2022

Historic period

2017-2021

Forecast period

2023-2027

Growth momentum & CAGR

Accelerate at a CAGR of 8.42%

Market growth 2023-2027

USD 3,162.26 million

Market structure

Fragmented

YoY growth 2022-2023(%)

6.87

Competitive landscape

Leading Vendors, Market Positioning of Vendors, Competitive Strategies, and Industry Risks

Key companies profiled

Ashok Masale, Babaji Snacks Pvt. Ltd., Balaji Wafers Pvt. Ltd., Bikaji Foods International Ltd., Bikanervala Foods Pvt. Ltd, Bikharam Chandmal, Desai Brothers Ltd., Gopal Snacks Pvt. Ltd, Haldiram Foods International Pvt. Ltd, ITC Ltd., JABSONS COTTONSEED IND. PVT. LTD., Maa Laxmi Namkeen, Maxvita Foods Pvt. Ltd., Parle Products Pvt. Ltd., Patanjali Ayurved Ltd., Prakash Namkeen Udyog, Prataap Snacks Ltd., Priniti Foods Pvt Ltd, Shri Ajab Foods Pvt Ltd., and Sonal Foods

Market dynamics

Parent market analysis, market growth inducers and obstacles, fast-growing and slow-growing segment analysis, COVID-19 impact and recovery analysis and future consumer dynamics, and market condition analysis for the forecast period.

Customization purview

If our report has not included the data that you are looking for, you can reach out to our analysts and get segments customized.

Browse through Technavio's Consumer Staples Market Reports

Table of contents:

1 Executive Summary

  • 1.1 Market overview
    • Exhibit 01: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Overview
    • Exhibit 02: Executive Summary – Data Table on Market Overview
    • Exhibit 03: Executive Summary – Chart on Country Market Characteristics
    • Exhibit 04: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by Type
    • Exhibit 05: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by Distribution Channel
    • Exhibit 06: Executive Summary – Chart on Vendor Market Positioning

2 Market Landscape

  • 2.1 Market ecosystem
    • Exhibit 07: Parent market
    • Exhibit 08: Market Characteristics

3 Market Sizing

  • 3.1 Market definition
    • Exhibit 09: Offerings of vendors included in the market definition
  • 3.2 Market segment analysis 
    • Exhibit 10: Market segments
  • 3.3 Market size 2022
  • 3.4 Market outlook: Forecast for 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 11: Chart on India - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 12: Data Table on India - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 13: Chart on India: Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 14: Data Table on India: Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)

4 Historic Market Size

  • 4.1 Namkeen market in India 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 15: Historic Market Size – Data Table on Namkeen market in India 2017 - 2021 ($ million)
  • 4.2 Type Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 16: Historic Market Size – Type Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ million)
  • 4.3 Distribution channel Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 17: Historic Market Size – Distribution channel Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ million)

5 Five Forces Analysis

  • 5.1 Five forces summary
    • Exhibit 18: Five forces analysis - Comparison between 2022 and 2027
  • 5.2 Bargaining power of buyers 
    • Exhibit 19: Chart on Bargaining power of buyers – Impact of key factors 2022 and 2027
  • 5.3 Bargaining power of suppliers 
    • Exhibit 20: Bargaining power of suppliers – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.4 Threat of new entrants 
    • Exhibit 21: Threat of new entrants – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.5 Threat of substitutes 
    • Exhibit 22: Threat of substitutes – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.6 Threat of rivalry
    • Exhibit 23: Threat of rivalry – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.7 Market condition
    • Exhibit 24: Chart on Market condition - Five forces 2022 and 2027

6 Market Segmentation by Type

  • 6.1 Market segments
    • Exhibit 25: Chart on Type - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 26: Data Table on Type - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.2 Comparison by Type
    • Exhibit 27: Chart on Comparison by Type
    • Exhibit 28: Data Table on Comparison by Type
  • 6.3 Indian and ethnic snacks - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 29: Chart on Indian and ethnic snacks - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 30: Data Table on Indian and ethnic snacks - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 31: Chart on Indian and ethnic snacks - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 32: Data Table on Indian and ethnic snacks - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.4 Western snacks - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 33: Chart on Western snacks - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 34: Data Table on Western snacks - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 35: Chart on Western snacks - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 36: Data Table on Western snacks - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.5 Market opportunity by Type 
    • Exhibit 37: Market opportunity by Type ($ million)
    • Exhibit 38: Data Table on Market opportunity by Type ($ million)

7 Market Segmentation by Distribution Channel

  • 7.1 Market segments
    • Exhibit 39: Chart on Distribution Channel - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 40: Data Table on Distribution Channel - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.2 Comparison by Distribution Channel 
    • Exhibit 41: Chart on Comparison by Distribution Channel
    • Exhibit 42: Data Table on Comparison by Distribution Channel
  • 7.3 Offline - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 43: Chart on Offline - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 44: Data Table on Offline - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 45: Chart on Offline - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 46: Data Table on Offline - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.4 Online - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 47: Chart on Online - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 48: Data Table on Online - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 49: Chart on Online - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 50: Data Table on Online - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.5 Market opportunity by Distribution Channel 
    • Exhibit 51: Market opportunity by Distribution Channel ($ million)
    • Exhibit 52: Data Table on Market opportunity by Distribution Channel ($ million)

8 Customer Landscape

  • 8.1 Customer landscape overview 
    • Exhibit 53: Analysis of price sensitivity, lifecycle, customer purchase basket, adoption rates, and purchase criteria

9 Drivers, Challenges, and Trends

  • 9.1 Market drivers
  • 9.2 Market challenges
  • 9.3 Impact of drivers and challenges 
    • Exhibit 54: Impact of drivers and challenges in 2022 and 2027
  • 9.4 Market trends

10 Vendor Landscape

  • 10.1 Overview
  • 10.2 Vendor landscape
    • Exhibit 55: Overview on Criticality of inputs and Factors of differentiation
  • 10.3 Landscape disruption
    • Exhibit 56: Overview on factors of disruption
  • 10.4 Industry risks
    • Exhibit 57: Impact of key risks on business

11 Vendor Analysis

  • 11.1 Vendors covered
    • Exhibit 58: Vendors covered
  • 11.2 Market positioning of vendors 
    • Exhibit 59: Matrix on vendor position and classification
  • 11.3 Babaji Snacks Pvt. Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 60: Babaji Snacks Pvt. Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 61: Babaji Snacks Pvt. Ltd. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 62: Babaji Snacks Pvt. Ltd. - Key offerings
  • 11.4 Balaji Wafers Pvt. Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 63: Balaji Wafers Pvt. Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 64: Balaji Wafers Pvt. Ltd. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 65: Balaji Wafers Pvt. Ltd. - Key offerings
  • 11.5 Bikaji Foods International Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 66: Bikaji Foods International Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 67: Bikaji Foods International Ltd. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 68: Bikaji Foods International Ltd. - Key offerings
  • 11.6 Bikanervala Foods Pvt. Ltd 
    • Exhibit 69: Bikanervala Foods Pvt. Ltd - Overview
    • Exhibit 70: Bikanervala Foods Pvt. Ltd - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 71: Bikanervala Foods Pvt. Ltd - Key offerings
  • 11.7 Gopal Snacks Pvt. Ltd 
    • Exhibit 72: Gopal Snacks Pvt. Ltd - Overview
    • Exhibit 73: Gopal Snacks Pvt. Ltd - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 74: Gopal Snacks Pvt. Ltd - Key offerings
  • 11.8 Haldiram Foods International Pvt. Ltd 
    • Exhibit 75: Haldiram Foods International Pvt. Ltd - Overview
    • Exhibit 76: Haldiram Foods International Pvt. Ltd - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 77: Haldiram Foods International Pvt. Ltd - Key offerings
  • 11.9 ITC Ltd.
    • Exhibit 78: ITC Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 79: ITC Ltd. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 80: ITC Ltd. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 81: ITC Ltd. - Segment focus
  • 11.10 JABSONS COTTONSEED IND. PVT. LTD. 
    • Exhibit 82: JABSONS COTTONSEED IND. PVT. LTD. - Overview
    • Exhibit 83: JABSONS COTTONSEED IND. PVT. LTD. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 84: JABSONS COTTONSEED IND. PVT. LTD. - Key offerings
  • 11.11 Maxvita Foods Pvt. Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 85: Maxvita Foods Pvt. Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 86: Maxvita Foods Pvt. Ltd. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 87: Maxvita Foods Pvt. Ltd. - Key offerings
  • 11.12 Parle Products Pvt. Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 88: Parle Products Pvt. Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 89: Parle Products Pvt. Ltd. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 90: Parle Products Pvt. Ltd. - Key offerings
  • 11.13 Patanjali Ayurved Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 91: Patanjali Ayurved Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 92: Patanjali Ayurved Ltd. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 93: Patanjali Ayurved Ltd. - Key offerings
  • 11.14 Prakash Namkeen Udyog 
    • Exhibit 94: Prakash Namkeen Udyog - Overview
    • Exhibit 95: Prakash Namkeen Udyog - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 96: Prakash Namkeen Udyog - Key offerings
  • 11.15 Prataap Snacks Ltd.
    • Exhibit 97: Prataap Snacks Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 98: Prataap Snacks Ltd. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 99: Prataap Snacks Ltd. - Key offerings
  • 11.16 Priniti Foods Pvt Ltd 
    • Exhibit 100: Priniti Foods Pvt Ltd - Overview
    • Exhibit 101: Priniti Foods Pvt Ltd - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 102: Priniti Foods Pvt Ltd - Key offerings
  • 11.17 Sonal Foods
    • Exhibit 103: Sonal Foods - Overview
    • Exhibit 104: Sonal Foods - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 105: Sonal Foods - Key offerings

12 Appendix

  • 12.1 Scope of the report
  • 12.2 Inclusions and exclusions checklist 
    • Exhibit 106: Inclusions checklist
    • Exhibit 107: Exclusions checklist
  • 12.3 Currency conversion rates for US$ 
    • Exhibit 108: Currency conversion rates for US$
  • 12.4 Research methodology
    • Exhibit 109: Research methodology
    • Exhibit 110: Validation techniques employed for market sizing
    • Exhibit 111: Information sources
  • 12.5 List of abbreviations 
    • Exhibit 112: List of abbreviations

About Us

Technavio is a leading global technology research and advisory company. Their research and analysis focus on emerging market trends and provides actionable insights to help businesses identify market opportunities and develop effective strategies to optimize their market positions. With over 500 specialized analysts, Technavio's report library consists of more than 17,000 reports and counting, covering 800 technologies, spanning across 50 countries. Their client base consists of enterprises of all sizes, including more than 100 Fortune 500 companies. This growing client base relies on Technavio's comprehensive coverage, extensive research, and actionable market insights to identify opportunities in existing and potential markets and assess their competitive positions within changing market scenarios.

Contact

Technavio Research
Jesse Maida
Media & Marketing Executive
US: +1 844 364 1100
UK: +44 203 893 3200
Email: media@technavio.com
Website: www.technavio.com/

View original content to download multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/namkeen-market-in-india-to-grow-by-usd-3-162-26-million-between-2022-and-2027-growth-driven-by-rising-retail-space-in-tier-ii-and-tier-iii-cities-of-india---technavio-301803403.html

SOURCE Technavio

Read More

Continue Reading

Uncategorized

February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

Published

on

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

Read More

Continue Reading

Uncategorized

Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

Published

on

Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

Read More

Continue Reading

Uncategorized

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

Published

on

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

Read More

Continue Reading

Trending