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“Monetary Debasement” Is Highly Likely

"Monetary Debasement" Is Highly Likely

Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

This week, I published the most recent letter from one of my good…

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"Monetary Debasement" Is Highly Likely

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

This week, I published the most recent letter from one of my good friends, hedge fund manager Lawrence Lepard. I believe Larry to truly be one of the muted voices that the investing community would be better off considering. He gets little coverage in the mainstream media, which, in my opinion, makes him someone worth listening to twice as closely.

His thoughts heading into Q4 are broken down into two parts which you can read here. Today, I wanted to slide in one more excerpt from Larry’s 30+ page writeup about the state of the economy and the “fiscal doom loop” we find ourselves in.

In his letter’s appendix, Larry emphasizes how Federal interest expensive is very sensitive to a rapidly growing short end yield. He issued 2 charts to show why he believes we are in a “debt doom loop”.

FROM LARRY’S Q3 2023 LETTER

As we have shown in prior letters, the price of gold is hanging in there in spite of a very aggressive tightening campaign by the Federal Reserve. Real interest rates have gone up quite a bit. and yet gold has not reacted the way it has in the past. We think there is a message in this price behavior. We think that gold can see around the corner and anticipates the next round of debasement.

You can see this in the chart below showing the price of gold (yellow) and the HUI gold miner index (blue).

Notice in this chart below that the gold stocks (blue) have been left for dead. We believe this is because the consensus view is that the Fed will land the plane smoothly, and inflation will return to its prior level. Wall Street estimates for the price of gold 5 years out are $1,750 per ounce (well below it’s current $1,950). With the inflation which is taking place in the cost of mining, if the price of gold does not rise it will result in a severe margin squeeze. This is what the gold stock prices are reflecting. We think the market has it wrong and the price of gold will be much higher in 5 years and that gold mining profits will continue to be robust. As people come to realize that we are in an environment of secular inflation, they will begin to anticipate higher future gold prices and the multiples on the stocks will expand.

Below is a snapshot of comments on our current portfolio positioning:

The musical genius, Tom Petty was surely correct when he wrote the song “The Waiting Is The Hardest Part”.  Some of the lyrics are genius: “every day you see one more card, you take it on faith, you take it to the heart” (Chorus).  

We will say this.  We like the cards we see.  We wish the game was moving a little faster, but we remain highly confident that our thesis is correct and that we will do the job you entrusted us with over the next few years.   It is hard to be patient, we know.   It has not worked as we expected.  But there are very few things in finance and investing that are highly likely, and we strongly believe that given the system of Governments and Central Banks that we live under that “monetary debasement” is highly likely.  That is the good news.  The bad news is getting the timing right is tough, but when it does happen, we are not talking about small upside. The upside is very outsized.  

We think that it is important to understand how front end weighted the US Federal Debt has become.  This means that the Federal interest expense is very sensitive to the short term interest rate. The next two charts help us to understand this more clearly. 

First, see the chart below.   Note how half of the debt will need to be rolled over within the next 3 years.  

Most of this debt was issued with interest rates that are way below today’s level. 

Then consider the following chart which shows that presently the US Federal Government is paying 2.49% on average on its debt burden.  Consider that US Federal Interest expense is running at a $970B annual rate (see Parts 1 and 2 of this letter).

Further, consider that US Bond interest rates now range between 4.6% and 5.4%, or nearly twice the average that is being paid now.  As the bonds above mature they will need to be rolled over at higher rates.  Total US Federal Debt is $35.5T but it is growing at $2-3T per year (conservatively). 

Let’s say the average interest rate becomes 4.6% over the next few years and deficits run at $2.5T per year.  This means that in two years US Federal interest expense will be $1.9T, or more than double today’s run rate.  All else equal we would add another $1 Trillion to the deficit.  This helps to explain why we are in a debt doom loop.

You can read Larry’s full 30+ page Q3 letter here.

Please read Larry and QTR's full disclaimer here

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/26/2023 - 09:10

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One city held a mass passport-getting event

A New Orleans congressman organized a way for people to apply for their passports en masse.

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While the number of Americans who do not have a passport has dropped steadily from more than 80% in 1990 to just over 50% now, a lack of knowledge around passport requirements still keeps a significant portion of the population away from international travel.

Over the four years that passed since the start of covid-19, passport offices have also been dealing with significant backlog due to the high numbers of people who were looking to get a passport post-pandemic. 

Related: Here is why it is (still) taking forever to get a passport

To deal with these concurrent issues, the U.S. State Department recently held a mass passport-getting event in the city of New Orleans. Called the "Passport Acceptance Event," the gathering was held at a local auditorium and invited residents of Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District to complete a passport application on-site with the help of staff and government workers.

A passport case shows the seal featured on American passports.

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'Come apply for your passport, no appointment is required'

"Hey #LA02," Rep. Troy A. Carter Sr. (D-LA), whose office co-hosted the event alongside the city of New Orleans, wrote to his followers on Instagram  (META) . "My office is providing passport services at our #PassportAcceptance event. Come apply for your passport, no appointment is required."

More Travel:

The event was held on March 14 from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. While it was designed for those who are already eligible for U.S. citizenship rather than as a way to help non-citizens with immigration questions, it helped those completing the application for the first time fill out forms and make sure they have the photographs and identity documents they need. The passport offices in New Orleans where one would normally have to bring already-completed forms have also been dealing with lines and would require one to book spots weeks in advance.

These are the countries with the highest-ranking passports in 2024

According to Carter Sr.'s communications team, those who submitted their passport application at the event also received expedited processing of two to three weeks (according to the State Department's website, times for regular processing are currently six to eight weeks).

While Carter Sr.'s office has not released the numbers of people who applied for a passport on March 14, photos from the event show that many took advantage of the opportunity to apply for a passport in a group setting and get expedited processing.

Every couple of months, a new ranking agency puts together a list of the most and least powerful passports in the world based on factors such as visa-free travel and opportunities for cross-border business.

In January, global citizenship and financial advisory firm Arton Capital identified United Arab Emirates as having the most powerful passport in 2024. While the United States topped the list of one such ranking in 2014, worsening relations with a number of countries as well as stricter immigration rules even as other countries have taken strides to create opportunities for investors and digital nomads caused the American passport to slip in recent years.

A UAE passport grants holders visa-free or visa-on-arrival access to 180 of the world’s 198 countries (this calculation includes disputed territories such as Kosovo and Western Sahara) while Americans currently have the same access to 151 countries.

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Fast-food chain closes restaurants after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Several major fast-food chains recently have struggled to keep restaurants open.

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Competition in the fast-food space has been brutal as operators deal with inflation, consumers who are worried about the economy and their jobs and, in recent months, the falling cost of eating at home. 

Add in that many fast-food chains took on more debt during the covid pandemic and that labor costs are rising, and you have a perfect storm of problems. 

It's a situation where Restaurant Brands International (QSR) has suffered as much as any company.  

Related: Wendy's menu drops a fan favorite item, adds something new

Three major Burger King franchise operators filed for bankruptcy in 2023, and the chain saw hundreds of stores close. It also saw multiple Popeyes franchisees move into bankruptcy, with dozens of locations closing.

RBI also stepped in and purchased one of its key franchisees.

"Carrols is the largest Burger King franchisee in the United States today, operating 1,022 Burger King restaurants in 23 states that generated approximately $1.8 billion of system sales during the 12 months ended Sept. 30, 2023," RBI said in a news release. Carrols also owns and operates 60 Popeyes restaurants in six states." 

The multichain company made the move after two of its large franchisees, Premier Kings and Meridian, saw multiple locations not purchased when they reached auction after Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings. In that case, RBI bought select locations but allowed others to close.

Burger King lost hundreds of restaurants in 2023.

Image source: Chen Jianli/Xinhua via Getty

Another fast-food chain faces bankruptcy problems

Bojangles may not be as big a name as Burger King or Popeye's, but it's a popular chain with more than 800 restaurants in eight states.

"Bojangles is a Carolina-born restaurant chain specializing in craveable Southern chicken, biscuits and tea made fresh daily from real recipes, and with a friendly smile," the chain says on its website. "Founded in 1977 as a single location in Charlotte, our beloved brand continues to grow nationwide."

Like RBI, Bojangles uses a franchise model, which makes it dependent on the financial health of its operators. The company ultimately saw all its Maryland locations close due to the financial situation of one of its franchisees.

Unlike. RBI, Bojangles is not public — it was taken private by Durational Capital Management LP and Jordan Co. in 2018 — which means the company does not disclose its financial information to the public. 

That makes it hard to know whether overall softness for the brand contributed to the chain seeing its five Maryland locations after a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing.

Bojangles has a messy bankruptcy situation

Even though the locations still appear on the Bojangles website, they have been shuttered since late 2023. The locations were operated by Salim Kakakhail and Yavir Akbar Durranni. The partners operated under a variety of LLCs, including ABS Network, according to local news channel WUSA9

The station reported that the owners face a state investigation over complaints of wage theft and fraudulent W2s. In November Durranni and ABS Network filed for bankruptcy in New Jersey, WUSA9 reported.

"Not only do former employees say these men owe them money, WUSA9 learned the former owners owe the state, too, and have over $69,000 in back property taxes."

Former employees also say that the restaurant would regularly purchase fried chicken from Popeyes and Safeway when it ran out in their stores, the station reported. 

Bojangles sent the station a comment on the situation.

"The franchisee is no longer in the Bojangles system," the company said. "However, it is important to note in your coverage that franchisees are independent business owners who are licensed to operate a brand but have autonomy over many aspects of their business, including hiring employees and payroll responsibilities."

Kakakhail and Durranni did not respond to multiple requests for comment from WUSA9.

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Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in February

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in February after declining 0.5 percent in January. In February, the output of manufacturing rose 0.8 percent and the index for mining climbed 2.2 p…

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From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in February after declining 0.5 percent in January. In February, the output of manufacturing rose 0.8 percent and the index for mining climbed 2.2 percent. Both gains partly reflected recoveries from weather-related declines in January. The index for utilities fell 7.5 percent in February because of warmer-than-typical temperatures. At 102.3 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in February was 0.2 percent below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector remained at 78.3 percent in February, a rate that is 1.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Capacity utilization at 78.3% is 1.3% below the average from 1972 to 2022.  This was below consensus expectations.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.


Industrial Production The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased to 102.3. This is above the pre-pandemic level.

Industrial production was above consensus expectations.

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