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Modernizing the Navy’s microgrids

Lehigh University researcher Javad Khazaei has set a course to improve the way the Navy operates and maintains microgrids through the development of…

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Lehigh University researcher Javad Khazaei has set a course to improve the way the Navy operates and maintains microgrids through the development of cutting-edge resilience assessment and control capabilities.

Credit: Christa Neu/Lehigh University

Lehigh University researcher Javad Khazaei has set a course to improve the way the Navy operates and maintains microgrids through the development of cutting-edge resilience assessment and control capabilities.

These small-scale grids, which can operate independently or collaboratively with other similar systems, power both the Navy’s ships and their onshore bases, says Khazaei, an assistant professor of electrical and computer engineering who leads the INTEGrated, Resilient and IntelligenT EnergY Systems (INTEGRITY) lab.

“We’re focused specifically on microgrids on DoD installations and floating microgrids on ships, which are composed of various electricity generation assets including generator sets, renewables, battery storage units, and supercapacitors, which together run everything on the DoD base or a ship. These systems are essential to our national security, but are decades old, and so the Navy wants to find a way to assess their operational resilience so they can determine if and when control design needs to be revisited or components should be replaced.” 

Monitoring resilience in real time

Khazaei says microgrid resilience assessments are typically done offline mainly because the resilience indexes that exist rely heavily on historical data. Such existing tools cannot provide real-time feedback on how the operational resilience changes over time, or if the resilience of a microgrid that has been operating for years is degrading. But he and his team are developing new operational resilience indexes using fundamental power system dynamic theories in time and frequency domain using voltage and frequency signals in real time, which will allow them to assess the operational resilience of every node within the system, and calculate a resilience index for each node. 

A resilience index is a measure of how fast each element of the system could respond to a contingency (an unexpected failure of a single component due to a storm or an enemy attack), a fault (an instability in the system that occurs after bad weather, equipment failure, or a sudden change in demand), or a high-impact, low-frequency event (such as a tsunami). 

The team will be applying the same concept to calculating resilience in unmanned Naval vehicles.  

“Every microgrid has a fixed frequency and fixed voltage, and if they drop for any number of reasons, resilience is defined by how fast they return to their normal condition,” he says. “Our goal is to restore service to the ship as fast as possible, so it can continue the mission at maximum capacity or return safely back to its base after a major damage to the power and energy system of the ship (its main driver).” 

Using real-time simulation models of Navy ships, the team will develop algorithms for each node of the microgrid and then conduct hardware-in-the-loop testing.

“We have a 10-kilowatt microgrid in our lab,” he says. “With this funding, we’ll add more capacity (12 kW) and new components to make a testbed that basically emulates a Navy ship. We’ll be able to then apply faults within this simulated environment, and see their impact on the actual hardware and assess the resilience in recovering from these faults.”  

The team will also develop a dashboard that will monitor these resilience indexes in real time, and give microgrid operators recommendations on how to improve the systems when they go down. 

“These recommendations could be upgrades on the components of a microgrid, modifications to the control design of generation assets and storage devices, or demand response designs. Then it will be up to the operator to determine which solution is suitable, for example, by identifying which load is not mission critical and can be turned off in order to restore the frequency and voltage back to the normal condition,” he says.

While grid resilience is directly tied to national security, Khazaei says another unique aspect to the project is its applicability across a range of systems—DC microgrids, AC microgrids, DC/AC hybrids, microgrids that are connected to the main grid, and those operating in islanded mode. 

“This concept is generalized for any kind of energy system,” he says.

This work on real-time microgrid operational resilience assessment is funded by a three-year, $546,929 award from the Office of Naval Research (ONR), one of two Department of Defense grants Khazaei has recently received. The second project, supported by a $970,850 award, focuses on optimizing microgrids in real-time using a deep-learning-based approach.

Tapping into the predictive power of machine learning

Khazaei’s second new ONR-funded project is a collaboration with Farrah Moazeni, an assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering who directs Lehigh’s interCONeccted Critical Infrastructure Systems Engineering (CONCISE) Laboratory. 

The team will conduct research into deep-learning-based optimal control of naval microgrids. Moazeni will lead the efforts for designing a closed-loop model-based predictive control approach, and Khazaei will utilize these model-based designs to train a machine-learning-based controller that can run much faster than a model-based design. 

The energy resources on a naval ship power a vast range of devices, the needs of which can change within microseconds. 

“What we’re interested in learning is how we can use machine learning to optimally allocate resources in real time to ensure a successful mission,” says Khazaei.

Currently, he says, microgrid operators on ships use an open-loop structure. “They find out how many resources are available in real time and how much load they have, and then they run an optimization problem that minimizes the overall cost of running the system. This isn’t a resilient approach because it’s purely deterministic and doesn’t consider uncertainties like bad weather, for example.” Closed-loop optimization techniques such as model predictive control can solve the challenge, but these approaches heavily rely on models and are computationally inefficient.

He and his team are using machine learning to formulate a closed-loop structure that enables predictive control.

“In the closed loop, your objective is minimizing cost, but you also consider the dynamic models of all these generators and assets in the formulation. So if I increase the speed of a ship at this moment, the power consumption of propulsion motors increases and the frequency of the microgrid in a ship might go down in the next couple of seconds. Using deep learning, our method will help predict the future behavior of each asset and enable better decision-making by telling you what the allocation of resources should be, and it will do that in milliseconds. For example, by increasing the reference power of a battery storage unit to respond to the frequency drop in real-time. So you’re minimizing cost, but you’re also improving the optimality and stability of the whole system. It’s called closed-loop optimization.”

Using advanced computers enhanced with multiple graphical processing units (GPUs), the team will develop the algorithms and then implement them on simulators of the ships before conducting hardware-in-the-loop testing. The next step will be demonstrating the concept on an actual ship.

The five-year project will eventually incorporate the resilience indexes Khazaei is developing in his other DOD initiative.

“We plan to implement those indexes into the deep-learning design, and eventually propose a machine-learning-based approach to resilience against failures.” 

Research reported in this story is supported by the United States Navy/Office of Naval Research/Department of Defense, under award number N000142312402 and N000142312602.

 

Related Links

  • Lehigh Engineering Faculty Profile: Javad Khazaei
  • INTEGrated, Resilient and IntelligenT EnergY Systems (INTEGRITY) lab
  • Lehigh Engineering Faegheh (Farrah) Moazeni
  • interCONeccted Critical Infrastructure Systems Engineering (CONCISE) Laboratory
  • P.C. Rossin College of Engineering and Applied Science, Lehigh University

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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