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Mid-Market Update: Stocks drop on tightening and growth fears, Fed speak, Treasury uses special measures, US Data, Oil higher, Gold shines, Bitcoin finds support ahead of $20k

US stocks are declining after another labor market statistic shows that despite all the big-tech post-pandemic layoffs, the jobs market remains hot. The…

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US stocks are declining after another labor market statistic shows that despite all the big-tech post-pandemic layoffs, the jobs market remains hot. The labor market needs to break to allow the Fed to comfortably keep rates on hold. The risk of more rate hikes down the road will remain on the table if we don’t see the unemployment make a serious move higher above 4%. 

Fed’s Collins comments on rates did not move markets as she is standing with the majority.  Collins noted, “policy rate needs to likely rise just above 5% and need to hold rates there for some time. 

Treasury Secretary Yellen confirmed that the Treasury has begun using ‘special measures’ on debt ceiling and debt issuance suspension period will last through Monday, June 5th.  The US avoided default and the pressure will start to grow on Congress to raise the debt ceiling. 

US Data

This morning contained another round of economic data that told two stories.  Initial jobless claims data confirms that the labor market remains strong, while the Philly Fed tries to stabilize and the housing market stays stuck in a recession.

First-time claims for weekly unemployment benefits dropped by 15,000 to 190,000, the lowest levels since September.  The holiday period adds to volatility for jobless claims and so did some extreme weather.  There are too many signs that the economy is softening, but businesses are hesitant to lay off talent as they remember how hard it was to onboard.       

The Philly Fed survey improved but still remains at depressed levels.  The headline index improved from -13.7 to -8.9, slightly better than the consensus estimate of -11.0.  The survey showed that firms expect smaller cost increases this year.  Future new orders and shipments remain positive but still at low levels. 

The housing market remains stuck in a recession, but optimism is growing that the bottom is getting close.  Housing starts decline less than expected, while permits didn’t post a stronger rebound. 

Oil

Crude prices are rallying as China’s robust demand will likely lead to rising inventories and increased activity for refiners.  The short-term crude demand outlook is looking strong as the US labor market remains strong and on China’s reopening momentum. US recession fears are still here and they won’t be going away anytime soon, so WTI crude might hover around the $80 to $85 region. 

Oil pared some of its gains after the EIA crude oil report showed demand bounced, shrugging off the expected rise with inventories. A stockpile build of 8.4 million barrels, was more than the early forecast of a draw of 1.8 million, but slightly higher than yesterday’s API’s build of 7.6 million barrels.

Gold

Gold prices are rallying as investors seek safety as recession and default risks won’t be going away anytime soon.  Mixed US data continues to support the idea that the Fed might need to do more tightening given how strong the labor market remains, but the rest of the economy is weakening.  Gold will look even more attractive if the US is viewed as likely having a recession in the second half of the year, which could mean earnings will contract far worse than markets are pricing.

If gold doesn’t make a quick run towards the $1935 level, it could consolidate around the $1900 region. 

Bitcoin

Cryptos took a hit over the past 24 hours on news that Genesis Global Capital is getting closer to a bankruptcy filing.  Genesis has been trying to find more capital or make a deal with creditors. Genesis has been in trouble since the end of last year and most of the negative news should be priced in. 

Bitcoin is higher today, mostly finding support ahead of the $20,000 level. The crypto space is getting cleaned up and as long as we don’t see a major reputable exchange go under, traders may mostly shrug off news of the demise of smaller crypto companies. 

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One city held a mass passport-getting event

A New Orleans congressman organized a way for people to apply for their passports en masse.

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While the number of Americans who do not have a passport has dropped steadily from more than 80% in 1990 to just over 50% now, a lack of knowledge around passport requirements still keeps a significant portion of the population away from international travel.

Over the four years that passed since the start of covid-19, passport offices have also been dealing with significant backlog due to the high numbers of people who were looking to get a passport post-pandemic. 

Related: Here is why it is (still) taking forever to get a passport

To deal with these concurrent issues, the U.S. State Department recently held a mass passport-getting event in the city of New Orleans. Called the "Passport Acceptance Event," the gathering was held at a local auditorium and invited residents of Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District to complete a passport application on-site with the help of staff and government workers.

A passport case shows the seal featured on American passports.

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'Come apply for your passport, no appointment is required'

"Hey #LA02," Rep. Troy A. Carter Sr. (D-LA), whose office co-hosted the event alongside the city of New Orleans, wrote to his followers on Instagram  (META) . "My office is providing passport services at our #PassportAcceptance event. Come apply for your passport, no appointment is required."

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The event was held on March 14 from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. While it was designed for those who are already eligible for U.S. citizenship rather than as a way to help non-citizens with immigration questions, it helped those completing the application for the first time fill out forms and make sure they have the photographs and identity documents they need. The passport offices in New Orleans where one would normally have to bring already-completed forms have also been dealing with lines and would require one to book spots weeks in advance.

These are the countries with the highest-ranking passports in 2024

According to Carter Sr.'s communications team, those who submitted their passport application at the event also received expedited processing of two to three weeks (according to the State Department's website, times for regular processing are currently six to eight weeks).

While Carter Sr.'s office has not released the numbers of people who applied for a passport on March 14, photos from the event show that many took advantage of the opportunity to apply for a passport in a group setting and get expedited processing.

Every couple of months, a new ranking agency puts together a list of the most and least powerful passports in the world based on factors such as visa-free travel and opportunities for cross-border business.

In January, global citizenship and financial advisory firm Arton Capital identified United Arab Emirates as having the most powerful passport in 2024. While the United States topped the list of one such ranking in 2014, worsening relations with a number of countries as well as stricter immigration rules even as other countries have taken strides to create opportunities for investors and digital nomads caused the American passport to slip in recent years.

A UAE passport grants holders visa-free or visa-on-arrival access to 180 of the world’s 198 countries (this calculation includes disputed territories such as Kosovo and Western Sahara) while Americans currently have the same access to 151 countries.

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Fast-food chain closes restaurants after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Several major fast-food chains recently have struggled to keep restaurants open.

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Competition in the fast-food space has been brutal as operators deal with inflation, consumers who are worried about the economy and their jobs and, in recent months, the falling cost of eating at home. 

Add in that many fast-food chains took on more debt during the covid pandemic and that labor costs are rising, and you have a perfect storm of problems. 

It's a situation where Restaurant Brands International (QSR) has suffered as much as any company.  

Related: Wendy's menu drops a fan favorite item, adds something new

Three major Burger King franchise operators filed for bankruptcy in 2023, and the chain saw hundreds of stores close. It also saw multiple Popeyes franchisees move into bankruptcy, with dozens of locations closing.

RBI also stepped in and purchased one of its key franchisees.

"Carrols is the largest Burger King franchisee in the United States today, operating 1,022 Burger King restaurants in 23 states that generated approximately $1.8 billion of system sales during the 12 months ended Sept. 30, 2023," RBI said in a news release. Carrols also owns and operates 60 Popeyes restaurants in six states." 

The multichain company made the move after two of its large franchisees, Premier Kings and Meridian, saw multiple locations not purchased when they reached auction after Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings. In that case, RBI bought select locations but allowed others to close.

Burger King lost hundreds of restaurants in 2023.

Image source: Chen Jianli/Xinhua via Getty

Another fast-food chain faces bankruptcy problems

Bojangles may not be as big a name as Burger King or Popeye's, but it's a popular chain with more than 800 restaurants in eight states.

"Bojangles is a Carolina-born restaurant chain specializing in craveable Southern chicken, biscuits and tea made fresh daily from real recipes, and with a friendly smile," the chain says on its website. "Founded in 1977 as a single location in Charlotte, our beloved brand continues to grow nationwide."

Like RBI, Bojangles uses a franchise model, which makes it dependent on the financial health of its operators. The company ultimately saw all its Maryland locations close due to the financial situation of one of its franchisees.

Unlike. RBI, Bojangles is not public — it was taken private by Durational Capital Management LP and Jordan Co. in 2018 — which means the company does not disclose its financial information to the public. 

That makes it hard to know whether overall softness for the brand contributed to the chain seeing its five Maryland locations after a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing.

Bojangles has a messy bankruptcy situation

Even though the locations still appear on the Bojangles website, they have been shuttered since late 2023. The locations were operated by Salim Kakakhail and Yavir Akbar Durranni. The partners operated under a variety of LLCs, including ABS Network, according to local news channel WUSA9

The station reported that the owners face a state investigation over complaints of wage theft and fraudulent W2s. In November Durranni and ABS Network filed for bankruptcy in New Jersey, WUSA9 reported.

"Not only do former employees say these men owe them money, WUSA9 learned the former owners owe the state, too, and have over $69,000 in back property taxes."

Former employees also say that the restaurant would regularly purchase fried chicken from Popeyes and Safeway when it ran out in their stores, the station reported. 

Bojangles sent the station a comment on the situation.

"The franchisee is no longer in the Bojangles system," the company said. "However, it is important to note in your coverage that franchisees are independent business owners who are licensed to operate a brand but have autonomy over many aspects of their business, including hiring employees and payroll responsibilities."

Kakakhail and Durranni did not respond to multiple requests for comment from WUSA9.

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Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in February

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in February after declining 0.5 percent in January. In February, the output of manufacturing rose 0.8 percent and the index for mining climbed 2.2 p…

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From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in February after declining 0.5 percent in January. In February, the output of manufacturing rose 0.8 percent and the index for mining climbed 2.2 percent. Both gains partly reflected recoveries from weather-related declines in January. The index for utilities fell 7.5 percent in February because of warmer-than-typical temperatures. At 102.3 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in February was 0.2 percent below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector remained at 78.3 percent in February, a rate that is 1.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.
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Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Capacity utilization at 78.3% is 1.3% below the average from 1972 to 2022.  This was below consensus expectations.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.


Industrial Production The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased to 102.3. This is above the pre-pandemic level.

Industrial production was above consensus expectations.

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