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MiCA: The good, the bad and the ugly of the EU’s crypto rules

The European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets regulatory framework isn’t all good, but it provides a level of clarity foreign to the United States.

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The European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets regulatory framework isn’t all good, but it provides a level of clarity foreign to the United States.

While United States regulators such as Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler make bad-faith claims that “there’s been clarity for years” when it comes to cryptocurrency, the European Union took real action in April when it passed the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulatory framework. While imperfect, it was a crucial move in the right direction for our industry and a signal to the U.S. that it will be left behind if it continues to stand still and rely on antiquated regulations.

Similar to how Bitcoin (BTC) took old technological, economic and financial concepts to build something new, regulators must rework existing regulatory and financial security frameworks to create a successful environment for participants. There are many useful and valid elements in our existing financial and regulatory frameworks.

Related: An ETF will bring a revolution for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies

On the other hand, there are many problems with the blockchain industry that the traditional regulatory framework does not address sufficiently — this leads to frustration and wasted resources as lawyers bicker over potential interpretations of statements instead of abiding by clearly defined legislation.

While Web3’s practical applications have shown great potential, it remains a remix of this traditional financial system — albeit a remix dedicated to improving efficiency, openness and fairness for all participants.

MiCA: A necessary but mediocre step forward for regulation

Despite the complex language around financial and securities regulations, the situation is really more simple than it appears. In short, our regulations attempt to prevent people from doing bad things to other people. Examples could include terrorists sending or receiving money to facilitate acts of terrorism or fraudsters making fraudulent claims to investors. It also includes ensuring that licensed individuals and entities are held accountable to a set of operating standards developed over the history of our modern financial markets.

In the more technical sense, the laws governing these operating standards are:

  1. Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorist Financing laws
  2. Securities and commodities laws
  3. Market infrastructure regulation

Despite the SEC’s insistence that existing regulations cover these three issues broadly, many elements manage to fall through the cracks of these roughly 100-year-old definitions, rules and penalties. We can largely attribute that problem to two things.

One is the categorization of digital assets. Are they commodities or securities, or do they fall under an entirely new category? Digital tokens often exhibit characteristics of one, both or neither, creating a significant dilemma for existing frameworks.

An overview of MiCA's key points. Source: Circle

The second is that the pace of innovation far outstrips the rate at which slow and sophisticated traditional finance regulatory frameworks can adapt. Governments have the responsibility of establishing regulations that are robust enough to prevent misconduct and protect stakeholders, yet flexible enough to accommodate the advancements promised by this burgeoning industry. How are these authorities supposed to compete with a smart contract that can be deployed in minutes and then upgraded that same day to have a completely different set of logic and parameters?

To those of us in this fast-moving industry, it is glaringly obvious that we need new regulations and guidelines that are compatible with the unique benefits and challenges Web3 offers.

MiCA constitutes one promising attempt, though the framework will struggle as the individual member-states of the EU test the framework in their native courts and build a patchwork example of cases with varied outcomes. That being said, here’s the good, the bad and the ugly of MiCA.

MiCA: The good

The best part of MiCA? Tighter rules and larger punishments for crypto asset service providers who lose customer funds! This is a longstanding issue within crypto where the exchanges and wallets have no liability when they are hacked or compromised and lose users’ funds, and has led to tens of billions of dollars lost with no options for users. This is unacceptable and has directly contributed to many individuals being irrevocably destroyed in our industry by bad actors.

MiCA: The bad

Although it states a primary goal of preventing market manipulation, the majority of manipulation is happening outside of the EU (via offshore entities), so it doesn’t really help many people directly. It may help indirectly, though, as it signals to the market the direction regulators are moving toward — though this also depends on the punishments levied when cases come to a judge.

Related: 3 takeaways from the European Union’s MiCA regulation

Noticeably excluded are decentralized finance and future central bank digital currencies. Although it might be seen as a positive that DeFi is not included, the vast majority of on-chain transactions and activity are DeFi, and it is frustrating that this was skipped.

MiCA: The ugly

Unfortunately, there are many concerning or otherwise “ugly” elements present in MiCA that readers must be aware of, and not only if they’re EU citizens.

  • The “Travel Rule” greatly increased the surveillance and recording of financial transactions and online activity in an unprecedented manner by forcing service providers to identify the recipient as well as the sender for every transaction.
  • A very low threshold of 1,000 euros for reporting leads to increased surveillance, as compared with the traditional threshold of $10,000 in the United States for banks. It’s irritating to have regular people be subjected to these Orwellian levels of scrutiny, given that the vast majority of financial malfeasance is done by larger banks and institutions via money laundering and other fraudulent activities.
  • It requires official approval from lawmakers before launching tokens or liquidity. This will dramatically stifle the number of legitimate projects launched within the EU, both directly and indirectly. It’s hard to assume that the queues will be short and the process expeditious — governments have proven time and time again that they are slow and inefficient, especially where new technologies are concerned.

There’s another core problem inherent in any regulation by the European Union that bears repeating: The fragmented nature of the EU’s court system makes it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about the impact of individual future rulings. In short, this is a minor win for Web3 and requires much more work around the world by regulators.

This is in stark contrast to the U.S. court system, which is — traditionally, albeit not with Web3 — a unified and solid foundation of legal rulings. A fragmented series of rulings makes it very unlikely that other countries will really follow MiCA full-steam ahead; instead, they will likely wait for the U.S. to come out with its own substantial framework and regulatory guidelines.

Regulators, exchange operators and founders all say that until the U.S. has a substantial set of regulatory guidelines, they will be proceeding very cautiously and slowly. Although they may take some inspiration from MiCA, it is not the North Star they need.

The blockchain industry is at a crossroads, for both regulators and users. Countless individuals have had their life savings ruined by fraud and scams, while regulators have struggled to keep up with the rapid pace of innovation in the industry.

Mike Sarvodaya is the founder of the Galactica Network, a layer-1 protocol that leverages zero-knowledge cryptography to achieve Sybil resistance, compliant privacy and infuse robust reputation primitives into DeFi and DAOs. He graduated first in his class from Utrecht University with an MsC in financial econometrics. Before Galactica, he spent the majority of his career as a risk manager and analyst at global hedge funds focused on proprietary trading in currencies, stocks, commodities, and digital assets.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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