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MCAN FINANCIAL GROUP ANNOUNCES 2022 RESULTS AND DECLARES $0.36 REGULAR CASH DIVIDEND

MCAN FINANCIAL GROUP ANNOUNCES 2022 RESULTS AND DECLARES $0.36 REGULAR CASH DIVIDEND
Canada NewsWire
TORONTO, Feb. 23, 2023

REPORTS STELLAR RESULTS FOR Q4 2022
TORONTO, Feb. 23, 2023 /CNW/ – MCAN Mortgage Corporation d/b/a MCAN Financial Group (“MC…

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MCAN FINANCIAL GROUP ANNOUNCES 2022 RESULTS AND DECLARES $0.36 REGULAR CASH DIVIDEND

Canada NewsWire

REPORTS STELLAR RESULTS FOR Q4 2022

TORONTO, Feb. 23, 2023 /CNW/ - MCAN Mortgage Corporation d/b/a MCAN Financial Group ("MCAN", the "Company" or "we") (TSX: MKP) reported net income of $24.1 million ($0.75 earnings per share) for the fourth quarter of 2022, an increase from net income of $16.1 million ($0.57 earnings per share) in the fourth quarter of 2021. Fourth quarter 2022 return on average shareholders' equity1 was 21.17% compared to 15.39% in the prior year. Year to date, we reported net income of $55.4 million ($1.77 earnings per share), a decrease from net income of $64.4 million ($2.40 earnings per share) in 2021. Year to date return on average shareholders' equity1 was 12.47% compared to 16.86% in the prior year. We reported lower total net income mainly as a result of unrealized fair value losses on our REIT portfolio due to the inflationary and rising interest rate environment, partially offset by growth in our core mortgage and lending business. 

Our net corporate mortgage spread income1 increased by $5.5 million from Q4 2021 and $16.7 million from year to date 2021. We committed to a strategy going into these economic headwinds of working on controllable factors to protect our bottom line. Year to date, our unrealized fair value gains and losses on our REIT portfolio was a $10.3 million unrealized loss ($0.33 loss per share) compared to a $10.9 million unrealized gain ($0.41 earnings per share) in the prior year. Excluding the unrealized fair value gains and losses on our REIT portfolio, current net income would have been higher compared to prior year. We expect continued volatility in the REIT market. We are long term investors and continue to realize the benefits of solid cash flows and distributions from these investments.

The Board of Directors declared a first quarter regular cash dividend of $0.36 per share (holding dividends consistent with 2022 given the current economic backdrop). The dividend will be paid on March 31, 2023 to shareholders of record as of March 15, 2023. As a mortgage investment corporation, we pay out all of our taxable income to shareholders through dividends. Our regular cash dividends for 2022 are sufficient to cover our taxable income, and therefore we will not be distributing a special stock dividend in March 2023 along with the regular cash dividend.

"Our fourth quarter results from our core lending business surpassed our expectations and affirm our strategy of protecting our net mortgage interest. While inflation and interest rate increases may have peaked, the higher interest rate environment and related housing market challenges are causing uncertainty in the Canadian economy," said Karen Weaver, President and Chief Executive Officer. "Our business has various levers and attributes that are positive for managing net mortgage interest income in a higher interest rate environment, including the floating rates on our construction and commercial portfolios and realigning the duration of our term deposit funding. While we remain focused on achieving solid margins in our mortgage and lending business, we will also continue to look for opportunities to grow. Our shareholders showed strong support for our business and strategy, as we completed an oversubscribed rights offering in December 2022, raising $34.1 million of capital to fund our asset growth. I commend our entire team for their role in successfully responding to challenging change in the economy and mortgage and housing markets." 

Highlights

  • Corporate assets totalled $2.28 billion at December 31, 2022, a net increase of $121 million (6%) from December 31, 2021:

    • Construction and commercial mortgages totalled $930 million at December 31, 2022, a net increase of $153 million (20%) from December 31, 2021. In 2022, the positive movement in the construction and commercial portfolios is attributed to net originations of $537 million in new construction and commercial mortgages, partially offset by maturities and repayments.

    • Uninsured residential mortgages totalled $829 million at December 31, 2022, a net increase of $45 million (6%) from December 31, 2021. Uninsured residential mortgage originations totalled $369 million year to date 2022, a decrease of $206 million (36%) from the same period in 2021. We actively managed originations in order to protect our net interest margins and our bottom line through the second half of 2022.

    • Non-marketable securities totalled $97 million at December 31, 2022, an increase of $32 million (50%) from December 31, 2021 with $80 million of remaining capital advances expected to fund over the next five years.

    • Marketable securities totalled $54 million at December 31, 2022, a net decrease of $9 million (14%) from December 31, 2021. In 2022, we saw REIT prices decline due to inflation and Bank of Canada rate increases. While we expect continued volatility in the REIT market, we have seen some recovery recently.

  • Securitized mortgages totalled $1.75 billion at December 31, 2022, a net increase of $168 million (11%) from December 31, 2021 primarily due to continued originations and securitization volumes:

    • Insured residential mortgage originations totalled $588 million year to date 2022, a decrease of $212 million (27%) from the same period in 2021. This includes $228 million of insured residential mortgage commitments originated and sold compared to $76 million in 2021. We launched our insured adjustable rate residential mortgage product in the first quarter of 2022. Unlike traditional insured variable rate mortgages, payments on our insured adjustable rate residential mortgages increase or adjust as interest rates rise with no changes to loan amortization. We also underwrite our insured adjustable rate mortgages for credit quality accordingly and our borrowers expect their payments under this new product to change as interest rates rise. Insured residential mortgage securitizations totalled $426 million year to date 2022, a decrease of $297 million (41%) from the same period in 2021. We decreased our insured residential mortgage originations and securitization volumes and increased the volume of our insured residential mortgage commitment sales given the extremely tight and even negative securitization spreads during the year. We use various channels in the insured residential mortgage market, in the context of market conditions and net contributions over the life of the mortgages, in order to support our overall business.

Financial Update

  • Net corporate mortgage spread income1 increased by $5.5 million for Q4 2022 from Q4 2021 and increased $16.7 million for year to date 2022 from 2021 mainly due to a higher average corporate mortgage portfolio balance from continued net mortgage originations and an increase in the spread of corporate mortgages over term deposit interest and expenses mainly from our floating rate residential construction mortgages. On the term deposit side, we have had a greater focus on raising shorter duration deposits, therefore resulting in a smaller increase in our average term deposit rates.

  • Net securitized mortgage spread income1 decreased by $0.7 million for Q4 2022 from Q4 2021 and decreased $1.8 million for year to date 2022 over the same period in 2021 mainly due to a decrease in the spread of securitized mortgages over liabilities partially offset by a higher average securitized mortgage portfolio balance from originations of insured residential mortgages. We have seen the spread of securitized mortgages over liabilities decline on securitizations in 2022 mainly as a result of higher securitization liability interest expense from significantly increasing Government of Canada bond yields in 2022 in a rising interest rate environment.

  • For Q4 2022, we had a recovery of credit losses on our corporate mortgage portfolio of $1.1 million compared to a provision for credit losses of $0.8 million in Q4 2021. For year to date 2022, we had a recovery of credit losses on our corporate mortgage portfolio of $1.1 million compared to a provision for credit losses of $0.5 million for year to date 2021. For 2022, the recovery was mainly due to a more favourable provincial outlook and assumptions for our loans in Alberta, as well as improving economic forecasts from expectations that both inflation and Bank of Canada interest rate increases may be nearing a peak. For 2021, the provision was mainly due to growth in our portfolio.

  • Equity income from MCAP Commercial LP ("MCAP") totalled $6.9 million in Q4 2022, an increase of $0.7 million (10%) from $6.2 million in Q4 2021, and totalled $26.6 million for year to date 2022, an increase of $1.2 million (5%) from $25.5 million year to date 2021. The increase in both the quarter and year to date was primarily due to higher servicing and administration revenue resulting from higher assets under management, and higher financial instrument gains resulting from (i) hedge gains; (ii) favourable fair value adjustments; and (iii) lower hedge costs. These were partially offset by (i) lower net interest income on securitized mortgages due to compressed spreads as a result of the rising interest rate environment; (ii) lower mortgage origination fees from lower spreads and origination volumes due to market conditions; (iii) higher interest expense; and (iv) higher operating expenses mainly attributed to higher headcount.

  • In Q4 2022, we recorded a $1.7 million net unrealized gain on securities compared to a $3.4 million net unrealized gain on securities in Q4 2021. Year to date net realized and unrealized loss on securities was $12.1 million for 2022 compared to a year to date net realized and unrealized gain on securities of $14.8 million for 2021. In 2022, we saw (i) REIT prices decrease due to inflation and Bank of Canada rate increases; and (ii) a $1.8 million realized loss during Q1 2022, on one REIT in our portfolio that had a mandatory corporate action resulting in its privatization. For 2021, the net realized and unrealized gain was due to REIT prices increasing from 2020 lows due to the ongoing recovery from the pandemic. Year to date, we received distributions of $3.6 million (distribution yield1 of 6.01%) from our REITs compared to $3.5 million (distribution yield1 of 5.49%) in 2021.

Credit Quality

  • Impaired corporate mortgage ratio1 was 1.66% at December 31, 2022 compared to 0.00% at September 30, 2022 and 0.05% at December 31, 2021. At December 31, 2022, we have two impaired construction mortgages where asset recovery programs are being initiated and we expect to recover all past due interest and principal.

  • Impaired total mortgage ratio1 was 0.89% at December 31, 2022 compared to 0.01% at September 30, 2022 and 0.03% at December 31, 2021. The increase at December 31, 2022 is the same as described above.

  • Arrears total mortgage ratio1 was 1.57% at December 31, 2022 compared to 1.11% at September 30, 2022 and 0.46% at December 31, 2021. The increase in the arrears total mortgage ratio is primarily due to three construction and commercial mortgages where either asset recovery programs are being initiated and we expect to recover all past due interest and principal or we expect these mortgages to be brought current in the next quarter. We have a strong track record with our asset recovery program should the need arise. Our realized loan losses on our construction portfolio have been negligible in the last 10 years.

  • Average loan to value ratio ("LTV") of our uninsured residential mortgage portfolio based on an industry index of current real estate values was 62.1% at December 31, 2022 compared to 58.1% at September 30, 2022 and 60.3% at December 31, 2021.

Capital

  • To support our continued growth and maintain our targeted capital requirements, we initiated a capital raise by way of a rights offering in December 2022 which was oversubscribed and raised $34.1 million of capital. In 2021, we raised $53.2 million through two oversubscribed rights offerings.

  • In 2021, we filed a Prospectus Supplement to our Base Shelf prospectus establishing an ATM Program to issue up to $30 million common shares to the public from time to time over a 2 year period at the market prices prevailing at the time of sale. The volume and timing of distributions under the ATM Program are determined at our sole discretion. We began issuing shares under the ATM Program in Q1 2022. During 2022, we successfully sold 236,600 common shares at a weighted average price of $17.88 for gross proceeds of $4.2 million and net proceeds of $4.1 million.

  • We issued $7.4 million in new common shares through the Dividend Reinvestment Plan ("DRIP") in 2022 compared to $5.8 million in 2021. The DRIP participation rate was 28% for the 2022 fourth quarter dividend (2021 fourth quarter dividend - 16%). The DRIP participation rate for 2022 dividends was 20% (2021 - 17%).

  • We issued $28.8 million in new common shares on March 31, 2022 from our 2022 first quarter special stock dividend to shareholders (with fractional shares paid in cash) at the weighted average trading price for the five days preceding the record date of $18.9326. In 2021, we raised $21.1 million from our 2021 first quarter special stock dividend.

  • Income tax assets to capital ratio3 was 4.93 at December 31, 2022 compared to 5.76 at September 30, 2022 and 5.29 at December 31, 2021.

  • Common Equity Tier 1 ("CET 1") and Tier 1 Capital to risk-weighted assets ratios2 were 19.60% at December 31, 2022 compared to 18.35% at September 30, 2022 and 20.26% at December 31, 2021. Total Capital to risk-weighted assets ratio2 was 19.83% at December 31, 2022 compared to 18.64% at September 30, 2022 and 20.54% at December 31, 2021.

  • Leverage ratio2 was 9.83% at December 31, 2022 compared to 8.88% at September 30, 2022 and 9.41% at December 31, 2021.

1 Considered to be a non-GAAP and other financial measure. For further details, refer to the "Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures" section of this new release. Non-GAAP and other financial measures and ratios used in this document are not defined terms under IFRS and, therefore, may not be comparable to similar terms used by other issuers.

2 These measures have been calculated in accordance with OSFI's Leverage Requirements and Capital Adequacy Requirements guidelines. Effective March 31, 2020, the total capital ratio reflects the inclusion of stage 1 and stage 2 allowances on the Company's mortgage portfolio in Tier 2 capital. In accordance with OSFI's transitional arrangements for capital treatment of ECL issued March 27, 2020, a portion of stage 1 and stage 2 allowances that would otherwise be included in Tier 2 capital are included in CET 1 capital. The adjustment to CET 1 capital will be measured each quarter as the increase, if any, in stage 1 and stage 2 allowances compared to the corresponding allowances at December 31, 2019. The increase, if any, is subject to a scaling factor that will decrease over time and was 70% in fiscal 2020, 50% in fiscal 2021 and is set at 25% in fiscal 2022.

3 Tax balances are calculated in accordance with the Tax Act.


Annual and Special Meeting of Shareholders

The Company's Annual and Special Meeting of Shareholders will be held at 4:30pm (Toronto time) on May 9, 2023.

Further Information

Complete copies of the Company's 2022 Annual Report will be filed on the System for Electronic Document Analysis and Retrieval ("SEDAR") at www.sedar.com and on the Company's website at www.mcanfinancial.com.

For our Outlook, refer to the "Outlook" section of the 2022 Annual Report.

MCAN is a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol MKP and is a reporting issuer in all provinces and territories in Canada. MCAN also qualifies as a mortgage investment corporation ("MIC") under the Income Tax Act (Canada) (the "Tax Act"). 

The Company's primary objective is to generate a reliable stream of income by investing in a diversified portfolio of Canadian mortgages, including residential mortgages, residential construction, non-residential construction and commercial loans, as well as other types of securities, loans and real estate investments. MCAN employs leverage by issuing term deposits that are eligible for Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation deposit insurance and are sourced through a broker distribution network across Canada consisting of third party deposit agents and financial advisors. We manage our capital and asset balances based on the regulations and limits of both the Tax Act and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada ("OSFI"). All of our capital ratios are within our regulatory and internal risk appetite guidelines.

As a MIC, we are entitled to deduct the dividends that we pay to shareholders from our taxable income. Regular dividends are treated as interest income to shareholders for income tax purposes. We are also able to pay capital gains dividends, which would be treated as capital gains to shareholders for income tax purposes. Dividends paid to foreign investors may be subject to withholding taxes. To meet the MIC criteria, 67% of our non-consolidated assets measured on a tax basis are required to be held in cash or cash equivalents and residential mortgages.

MCAN's wholly-owned subsidiary, MCAN Home Mortgage Corporation, is an originator of residential mortgage products across Canada.

For how to enroll in the DRIP, please refer to the Management Information Circular dated March 11, 2022 or visit our website at www.mcanfinancial.com/investors/regulatory filings/dividends - historical. Under the DRIP, dividends paid to shareholders are automatically reinvested in common shares issued out of treasury at the weighted average trading price for the five days preceding such issue less a discount of 2% until further notice from MCAN. 

Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures

This news release references a number of non-GAAP and other financial measures and ratios to assess our performance such as return on average shareholders' equity, net corporate mortgage spread income, net securitized mortgage spread income, impaired corporate mortgage ratio, impaired total mortgage ratio, and arrears total mortgage ratio. These measures are not calculated in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards ("IFRS"), are not defined by IFRS and do not have standardized meanings that would ensure consistency and comparability between companies using these measures. These metrics are considered to be non-GAAP and other financial measures and are incorporated by reference and defined in the "Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures" section of our 2022 Annual Management's Discussion and Analysis of Operations ("MD&A") available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com. Below are reconciliations for our non-GAAP financial measures included in this news release using the most directly comparable IFRS financial measures.

Net Corporate Mortgage Spread Income 
Non-GAAP financial measure that is an indicator of net interest profitability of income-earning assets less cost of funding for our corporate mortgage portfolio. It is calculated as the difference between corporate mortgage interest and term deposit interest and expenses.

(in thousands)

Q4

Q4

Change

Annual

Annual

Change

At December 31

2022

2021

($)

2022

2021

($)

Mortgage interest - corporate assets

$     30,747

$     20,436


$   101,286

$     71,823


Term deposit interest and expenses

13,189

8,389


44,222

31,430


Net Corporate Mortgage Spread Income

$     17,558

$     12,047

$       5,511

$     57,064

$     40,393

$     16,671


Net Securitized Mortgage Spread Income
Non-GAAP financial measure that is an indicator of net interest profitability of income-earning securitization assets less cost of securitization liabilities for our securitized mortgage portfolio. It is calculated as the difference between securitized mortgage interest and interest on financial liabilities from securitization. 

(in thousands)

Q4

Q4

Change

Annual

Annual

Change

At December 31

2022

2021

($)

2022

2021

($)

Mortgage interest - securitized assets

$       8,607

$       7,295


$     31,411

$     28,671


Interest on financial liabilities from securitization

7,005

4,993


24,101

19,554


Net Securitized Mortgage Spread Income

$       1,602

$       2,302

$        (700)

$       7,310

$       9,117

$     (1,807)


A Caution About Forward-looking Information and Statements

This news release contains forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws. All information contained in this news release, other than statements of current and historical fact, is forward-looking information. All of the forward-looking information in this news release is qualified by this cautionary note. Often, but not always, forward-looking information can be identified by the use of words such as "may," "believe," "will," "anticipate," "expect," "planned," "estimate," "project," "future," and variations of these or similar words or other expressions that are predictions of, or indicate, future events and trends and that do not relate to historical matters. Forward-looking information in this news release includes, among others, statements and assumptions with respect to:

  • the current business environment, economic environment and outlook;
  • the impact of global health pandemics on the Canadian economy and globally;
  • possible or assumed future results;
  • our ability to create shareholder value;
  • our business goals and strategy;
  • the potential impact of new regulations and changes to existing regulations;
  • the stability of home prices;
  • the effect of challenging conditions on us;
  • the performance of our investments;
  • factors affecting our competitive position within the housing lending market;
  • international trade and geopolitical uncertainties and their impact on the Canadian economy, including the Russia/Ukraine conflict;
  • sufficiency of our access to capital resources;
  • the timing and effect of interest rate changes on our cash flows; and
  • the declaration and payment of dividends.

Forward-looking information is not, and cannot be, a guarantee of future results or events. Forward-looking information reflects management's current beliefs and is based on information currently available to management. Forward-looking information is based on, among other things, opinions, assumptions, estimates and analyses that, while considered reasonable by us at the date the forward-looking information is provided, inherently are subject to significant risks, uncertainties, contingencies and other factors that may cause actual results and events to be materially different from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking information. 

The material factors or assumptions that we identified and were applied by us in drawing conclusions or making forecasts or projections set out in the forward-looking information, include, but are not limited to: 

  • our ability to successfully implement and realize on our business goals and strategy;
  • government regulation of our business and the cost to us of such regulation;
  • the economic and social impact, management, and duration of a pandemic;
  • factors and assumptions regarding interest rates, including the effect of Bank of Canada actions already taken;
  • the effect of supply chain issues;
  • the effect of inflation;
  • housing sales and residential mortgage borrowing activities;
  • the effect of household debt service levels;
  • the effect of competition;
  • systems failure or cyber and security breaches;
  • the availability of funding and capital to meet our requirements;
  • investor appetite for securitization products;
  • the value of mortgage originations;
  • the expected spread between interest earned on mortgage portfolios and interest paid on deposits;
  • the relative uncertainty and volatility of real estate markets;
  • acceptance of our products in the marketplace;
  • the stage of the real estate cycle and the maturity phase of the mortgage market;
  • impact on housing demand from changing population demographics and immigration patterns;
  • our ability to forecast future changes to borrower credit and credit scores, loan to value ratios and other forward-looking factors used in assessing expected credit losses and rates of default;
  • availability of key personnel;
  • our operating cost structure;
  • the current tax regime; and
  • operations within, and market conditions relating to, our equity and other investments.

External conflicts such as the Russia/Ukraine conflict and post-pandemic government and Bank of Canada actions taken, have resulted in uncertainty relating to the Company's internal expectations, estimates, projections, assumptions and beliefs, including with respect to the Canadian economy, employment conditions, interest rates, supply chain issues, inflation, levels of housing activity and household debt service levels. There can be no assurance that such expectations, estimates, projections, assumptions and beliefs will continue to be valid. The impact the COVID-19 pandemic or any further pandemics, variants or outbreaks, including measures to prevent their spread and related government actions adopted in response thereto, will have on our business continues to be uncertain and difficult to predict. 

Reliance should not be placed on forward-looking information because it involves known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, which may cause actual results to differ materially from anticipated future results expressed or implied by such forward-looking information. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in the forward-looking information include, but are not limited to, the risk that any of the above opinions, estimates or assumptions are inaccurate and the other risks and uncertainties referred to in our Annual Information Form for the year ended December 31, 2022, our MD&A and our other public filings with the applicable Canadian regulatory authorities.

Subject to applicable securities law requirements, we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking information after the date of this news release whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise or to explain any material difference between subsequent actual events and any forward-looking information. However, any further disclosures made on related subjects in subsequent reports should be consulted.

SOURCE MCAN Mortgage Corporation

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Correcting the Washington Post’s 11 Charts That Are Supposed to Tell Us How the Economy Changed Since Covid

The Washington Post made some serious errors or omissions in its 11 charts that are supposed to tell us how Covid changed the economy. Wages Starting with…

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The Washington Post made some serious errors or omissions in its 11 charts that are supposed to tell us how Covid changed the economy.

Wages

Starting with its second chart, the article gives us an index of average weekly wages since 2019. The index shows a big jump in 2020, which then falls off in 2021 and 2022, before rising again in 2023.

It tells readers:

“Many Americans got large pay increases after the pandemic, when employers were having to one-up each other to find and keep workers. For a while, those wage gains were wiped out by decade-high inflation: Workers were getting larger paychecks, but it wasn’t enough to keep up with rising prices.”

That actually is not what its chart shows. The big rise in average weekly wages at the start of the pandemic was not the result of workers getting pay increases, it was the result of low-paid workers in sectors like hotels and restaurants losing their jobs.

The number of people employed in the low-paying leisure and hospitality sector fell by more than 8 million at the start of the pandemic. Even at the start of 2021 it was still down by over 4 million.

Laying off low-paid workers raises average wages in the same way that getting the short people to leave raises the average height of the people in the room. The Washington Post might try to tell us that the remaining people grew taller, but that is not what happened.

The other problem with this chart is that it is giving us weekly wages. The length of the average workweek jumped at the start of the pandemic as employers decided to work the workers they had longer hours rather than hire more workers. In January of 2021 the average workweek was 34.9 hours, compared to 34.4 hours in 2019 and 34.3 hours in February.

This increase in hours, by itself, would raise weekly pay by 2.0 percent. As hours returned to normal in 2022, this measure would misleadingly imply that wages were falling.

It is also worth noting that the fastest wage gains since the pandemic have been at the bottom end of the wage distribution and the Black/white wage gap has fallen to its lowest level on record.

Saving Rates

The third chart shows the saving rate since 2019. It shows a big spike at the start of the pandemic, as people stopped spending on things like restaurants and travel and they got pandemic checks from the government. It then falls sharply in 2022 and is lower in the most recent quarters than in 2019.

The piece tells readers:

“But as the world reopened — and people resumed spending on dining out, travel, concerts and other things that were previously off-limits — savings rates have leveled off. Americans are also increasingly dip into rainy-day funds to pay more for necessities, including groceries, housing, education and health care. In fact, Americans are now generally saving less of their incomes than they were before the pandemic.

This is an incomplete picture due to a somewhat technical issue. As I explained in a blogpost a few months ago, there is an unusually large gap between GDP as measured on the output side and GDP measured on the income side. In principle, these two numbers should be the same, but they never come out exactly equal.

In recent quarters, the gap has been 2.5 percent of GDP. This is extraordinarily large, but it also is unusual in that the output side is higher than the income side, the opposite of the standard pattern over the last quarter century.

It is standard for economists to assume that the true number for GDP is somewhere between the two measures. If we make that assumption about the data for 2023, it would imply that income is somewhat higher than the data now show and consumption somewhat lower.

In that story, as I showed in the blogpost, the saving rate for 2023 would be 6.8 percent of disposable income, roughly the same as the average for the three years before the pandemic. This would mean that people are not dipping into their rainy-day funds as the Post tells us. They are spending pretty much as they did before the pandemic.

 

Credit Card Debt

The next graph shows that credit card debt is rising again, after sinking in the pandemic. The piece tells readers:

“But now, debt loads are swinging higher again as families try to keep up with rising prices. Total household debt reached a record $17.5 trillion at the end of 2023, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. And, in a worrisome sign for the economy, delinquency rates on mortgages, car loans and credit cards are all rising, too.”

There are several points worth noting here. Credit card debt is rising, but measured relative to income it is still below where it was before the pandemic. It was 6.7 percent of disposable income at the end of 2019, compared to 6.5 percent at the end of last year.

The second point is that a major reason for the recent surge in credit card debt is that people are no longer refinancing mortgages. There was a massive surge in mortgage refinancing with the low interest rates in 2020-2021.

Many of the people who refinanced took additional money out, taking advantage of the increased equity in their home. This channel of credit was cut off when mortgage rates jumped in 2022 and virtually ended mortgage refinancing. This means that to a large extent the surge in credit card borrowing is simply a shift from mortgage debt to credit card debt.

The point about total household debt hitting a record can be said in most months. Except in the period immediately following the collapse of the housing bubble, total debt is almost always rising.

And the rise in delinquencies simply reflects the fact that they had been at very low levels in 2021 and 2022. For the most part, delinquency rates are just getting back to their pre-pandemic levels, which were historically low.  

 

Grocery Prices and Gas Prices

The next two charts show the patterns in grocery prices and gas prices since the pandemic. It would have been worth mentioning that every major economy in the world saw similar run-ups in prices in these two areas. In other words, there was nothing specific to U.S. policy that led to a surge in inflation here.

 

The Missing Charts

There are several areas where it would have been interesting to see charts which the Post did not include. It would have been useful to have a chart on job quitters, the number of people who voluntarily quit their jobs during the pandemic. In the tight labor markets of 2021 and 2022 the number of workers who left jobs they didn’t like soared to record levels, as shown below.

 

The vast majority of these workers took other jobs that they liked better. This likely explains another item that could appear as a graph, the record level of job satisfaction.

In a similar vein there has been an explosion in the number of people who work from home at least part-time. This has increased by more than 17 million during the pandemic. These workers are saving themselves thousands of dollars a year on commuting costs and related expenses, as well as hundreds of hours spent commuting.

Finally, there has been an explosion in the use of telemedicine since the pandemic. At the peak, nearly one in four visits with a health care professional was a remote consultation. This saved many people with serious health issues the time and inconvenience associated with a trip to a hospital or doctor’s office. The increased use of telemedicine is likely to be a lasting gain from the pandemic.

 

The World Has Changed

The pandemic will likely have a lasting impact on the economy and society. The Washington Post’s charts captured part of this story, but in some cases misrepr

The post Correcting the Washington Post’s 11 Charts That Are Supposed to Tell Us How the Economy Changed Since Covid appeared first on Center for Economic and Policy Research.

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Women’s basketball is gaining ground, but is March Madness ready to rival the men’s game?

The hype around Caitlin Clark, NCAA Women’s Basketball is unprecedented — but can its March Madness finally rival the Men’s?

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In March 2021, the world was struggling to find its legs amid the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Sports leagues were trying their best to keep going.

It started with the NBA creating a bubble in Orlando in late 2020, playing a full postseason in the confines of Disney World in arenas that were converted into gyms devoid of fans. Other leagues eventually allowed for limited capacity seating in stadiums, including the NCAA for its Men’s and Women’s Basketball tournaments.

The two tournaments were confined to two cities that year — instead of games normally played in different regions around the country: Indianapolis for the men and San Antonio for the women.

But a glaring difference between the men’s and women’s facilities was exposed by Oregon’s Sedona Prince on social media. The workout and practice area for the men was significantly larger than the women, whose weight room was just a single stack of dumbbells.

The video drew significant attention to the equity gaps between the Men’s and Women’s divisions, leading to a 114-page report by a civil rights law firm that detailed the inequities between the two and suggested ways to improve the NCAA’s efforts for the Women’s side. One of these suggestions was simply to give the Women’s Tournament the same March Madness moniker as the men, which it finally got in 2022.

But underneath the surface of these institutional changes, women’s basketball’s single-biggest success driver was already emerging out of the shadows.

During the same COVID-marred season, a rookie from Iowa led the league in scoring with 26.6 points per game.

Her name: Caitlin Clark.

Caitlin Clark has scored the most points and made the most threes in college basketball.

Matthew Holst/Getty Images

As it stands today, Clark is the leading scorer in the history of college basketball — Men’s or Women’s. Her jaw-dropping shooting ability has fueled record viewership and ticket sales for Women’s collegiate games, carrying momentum to the March Madness tournament that has NBA legends like Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce more excited for the Women’s March Madness than the Men’s this year.

Related: Ticket prices for Caitlin Clark's final college home game are insanely high

But as the NCAA tries to bridge the opportunities given to the two sides, can the hype around Clark be enough for the Women’s March Madness to bring in the same fandom as the Men for the 2024 tournaments?

TheStreet spoke with Jon Lewis of Sports Media Watch, who has been following sports viewership trends for the last two decades; Melissa Isaacson, a veteran sports journalist and longtime advocate of women’s basketball; and Pete Giorgio, Deloitte’s leader for Global and US Sports to dissect the rise Caitlin Clark and women’s collegiate hoops ahead of March Madness.

“Nobody is moving the needle like Caitlin Clark,” Lewis told TheStreet. “Nobody else in sports, period, right now, is fueling record numbers on all these different networks, driving viewership beyond what the norm has been for 20 years."

The Caitlin Clark Effect is real — but there are other reasons for the success of women's basketball

The game in which Clark broke the all-time college scoring record against Ohio State on Sunday, Mar. 3 was seen by an average of 3.4 million viewers on Fox, marking the first time a women’s game broke the two million viewership barrier since 2010. Viewership for that game came in just behind the men’s game between Michigan State vs Arizona game on Thanksgiving, which Lewis said was driven by NFL viewership on the same day.

A week later, Iowa’s Big Ten Championship win over Nebraska breached the three million viewers mark as well, and the team has also seen viewership numbers crack over 1.5 million viewers multiple times throughout the regular season.

The success on television has also translated to higher ticket prices, as tickets to watch Clark at home and on the road have breached hundreds of dollars and drawn long lines outside stadiums. Isaacson, who is a professor at Northwestern, said she went to the game between the Hawkeyes and Northwestern Wildcats — which was the first sellout in school history for the team — and witnessed the effect of Clark in person.

“Standing in line interviewing people at the Northwestern game, seeing men who've never been to a women's game with their little girls watching and so excited, and seeing Caitlin and her engaging with little girls, it’s just been really fun,” Isaacson said.

But while Clark is certainly the biggest success driver, her game isn’t the only thing pulling up the women’s side. The three-point revolution, which started in the NBA with the introduction of deeper analytics as well as the rise of stars like Steph Curry, has been a positive for the Women’s game.

“They backed up to the three-point line and it’s opening up the game,” Isaacson said.

One of the major criticisms from a lot of women’s hoops detractors has been how the game does not compare in terms of quality to the men. However, shooting has become a great equalizer, displayed recently during the 2024 NBA All-Star Weekend last month when the WNBA’s Sabrina Ionescu nearly defeated Curry — who is widely considered the greatest shooter ever — in a three-point contest.

Clark has become the embodiment of the three-point revolution for the women. Her shooting displays have demanded the respect of anyone who has doubted women’s basketball in the past because being a man simply doesn’t grant someone the ability to shoot long-distance bombs the way she can.

Basketball pundit Bill Simmons admitted on a Feb. 28 episode of “The Bill Simmons Podcast” that he used to not want to watch women’s basketball because he didn’t enjoy watching the product, but finds himself following the women’s game this year more than the men’s side in large part due to Clark.

“I think she has the chance to be the most fun basketball player, male or female, when she gets to the pros,” Simmons said. “If she’s going to make the same 30-footers, routinely. It’s basically all the same Curry stuff just with a female … I would like watching her play in any format.”

But while Clark is driving up the numbers at the top, she’s not the only one carrying the greatness of the product. Lewis, Isaacson, Giorgio — and even Simmons, on his podcast — agreed that there are several other names and collegiate programs pulling in fans.

“It’s not just Iowa, it’s not just Caitlin Clark, it’s all of these teams,” Giorgio said. “Part of it is Angel Reese … coaches like Dawn Staley in South Carolina … You’ve got great stories left and right.”

LSU's Angel Reese (right) and her head coach Kim Mulkey are two of the biggest names in Women's college hoops. 

Eakin Howard/Getty Images

The viewership showed that as well because the SEC Championship game between the LSU Tigers and University of South Carolina Gamecocks on Sunday, Mar. 10 averaged two million viewers.

Bridging the gap between the Men’s and Women’s March Madness viewership

The first reason women are catching up to the men is really star power. While the Women’s division has names like Clark and Reese, there just aren’t any names on the Men’s side this year that carry the same weight.

Garnett said on his show that he can’t name any men’s college basketball players, while on the women’s side, he could easily throw out the likes of Clark, Reese, UConn’s Paige Bueckers, and USC’s JuJu Watkins. Lewis felt the same.

“The stars in the men's game, with one and done, I genuinely couldn't give you a single name of a single men’s player,” Lewis said.

A major reason for this is that the Women’s side has the continuity that the Men’s side does not. The rules of the NBA allow for players to play just one year in college — or even play a year professionally elsewhere — before entering the draft, while the WNBA requires players to be 22-years-old during the year of the draft to be eligible.

“You know the stars in the women's game because they stay longer,” Lewis said. “[In the men’s game], the programs are the stars … In the women's game, it's a lot more like the NBA where the players are the stars.”

Parity is also a massive factor on both sides. The women’s game used to be dominated by a few schools like UConn and Notre Dame. Nowadays, between LSU, Iowa, University of South Carolina, Stanford, and UConn, there are a handful of schools that have a shot to win the entire tournament. While this is more exciting for fans, the talent in the women's game isn’t deep enough, so too many upsets are unlikely. Many of the biggest draws are still expected to make deep runs.

But on the men’s side, there is a bigger shot that the smaller programs make it to the end — which is what was seen last year. UConn eventually won the whole thing, but schools without as big of a national fanbase in San Diego State, Florida Atlantic University, and the University Miami rounded out the Final Four.

“People want to see one Cinderella,” Lewis said. “They don't want to see two and three, they want one team that isn't supposed to be there.”

Is Women's March Madness ready to overtake the Men?

Social media might feel like it’s giving more traction to the Women’s game, but experts don’t necessarily expect that to show up in the viewership numbers just yet.

“There’s certainly a lot more buzz than there used to be,” Giorgio said. “It’s been growing every year for not just the past few years but for 10 years, but it’s hard to compare it versus Men’s.”

But the gap continues to get smaller and smaller between the two sides, and this year's tournament could bridge that gap even further.

One indicator is ticket prices. For the NCAA Tournament Final Four in April, “get-in” ticket prices are currently more expensive for the Women’s game than the Men’s game, according to TickPick. The ticketing site also projects that the Women’s Final Four and Championship game ticket prices will smash any previous records for the Women’s side should Clark and the Hawkeyes make a run to the end.

NCAA "get-in" price comparison.

Getty Images/TheStreet

The caveat is that the Women’s Final Four is played in a stadium that has less than a third of the seating capacity of the Men’s Final Four. That’s why the average ticket prices are still more expensive for the men, although the gap is a lot smaller this year than in previous years.

The gap between the average ticket prices of the Final Four tournaments is getting smaller.

But that caveat pretty much sums up where the women’s game currently stands versus the men’s: There is still a significant gap between the distribution and availability of the former.

While Iowa’s regular season games have garnered millions of viewers, the majority of the most-viewed games are still Men’s contests.

To illustrate the gap between the men’s and women’s game — last year’s Women’s Championship game that saw the LSU Tigers defeat the Hawkeyes was a record-breaking one for the women, drawing an average of 9.9 million viewers, more than double the viewership from the previous year.

One of the main reasons for that increase, as Lewis pointed out, is that last year’s Championship game was on ABC, which was the first time since 1995 that the Women’s Championship game was on broadcast television. The 1995 contest between UConn and Tennessee drew 7.4 million viewers.

The Men’s Championship actually had a record low in viewership last year garnering only 14.7 million viewers, driven in-part due to a lack of hype surrounding the schools that made it to the Final Four and Championship game. Viewership for the Men’s title game has been trending down in recent years — partly due to the effect the pandemic had on collective sports viewership — but the Men’s side had been easily breaching 20 million viewers for the game as recently as 2017.

The 2023 Women's National Championship was the most-viewed game ever, while the Men's Championship was the division's least watched. 

Iowa's Big Ten Championship win on Sunday actually only averaged 6,000 fewer viewers than the iconic rivalry game between Duke and University of North Carolina Men’s Basketball the day prior. However, there is also the case that the Iowa game was played on broadcast TV (CBS) versus the Duke-UNC game airing on cable channel (ESPN).

So historical precedence makes it unlikely that we’ll see the women’s game match the men’s in terms of viewership as early as this year barring another massive viewership jump for the women and a lack of recovery for the Men’s side.

But ultimately, this shouldn’t be looked at as a down point for Women’s Basketball, according to Lewis. The Men’s side has built its viewership base for years, and the Women’s side is still growing. Even keeping pace with the Men’s viewership is already a great sign.

“The fact that these games have Caitlin Clark are even in the conversation with men's games, in terms of viewership is a huge deal,” Lewis said.

Related: Angel Reese makes bold statement for avoiding late game scuffle in championship game

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One city held a mass passport-getting event

A New Orleans congressman organized a way for people to apply for their passports en masse.

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While the number of Americans who do not have a passport has dropped steadily from more than 80% in 1990 to just over 50% now, a lack of knowledge around passport requirements still keeps a significant portion of the population away from international travel.

Over the four years that passed since the start of covid-19, passport offices have also been dealing with significant backlog due to the high numbers of people who were looking to get a passport post-pandemic. 

Related: Here is why it is (still) taking forever to get a passport

To deal with these concurrent issues, the U.S. State Department recently held a mass passport-getting event in the city of New Orleans. Called the "Passport Acceptance Event," the gathering was held at a local auditorium and invited residents of Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District to complete a passport application on-site with the help of staff and government workers.

A passport case shows the seal featured on American passports.

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'Come apply for your passport, no appointment is required'

"Hey #LA02," Rep. Troy A. Carter Sr. (D-LA), whose office co-hosted the event alongside the city of New Orleans, wrote to his followers on Instagram  (META) . "My office is providing passport services at our #PassportAcceptance event. Come apply for your passport, no appointment is required."

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The event was held on March 14 from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. While it was designed for those who are already eligible for U.S. citizenship rather than as a way to help non-citizens with immigration questions, it helped those completing the application for the first time fill out forms and make sure they have the photographs and identity documents they need. The passport offices in New Orleans where one would normally have to bring already-completed forms have also been dealing with lines and would require one to book spots weeks in advance.

These are the countries with the highest-ranking passports in 2024

According to Carter Sr.'s communications team, those who submitted their passport application at the event also received expedited processing of two to three weeks (according to the State Department's website, times for regular processing are currently six to eight weeks).

While Carter Sr.'s office has not released the numbers of people who applied for a passport on March 14, photos from the event show that many took advantage of the opportunity to apply for a passport in a group setting and get expedited processing.

Every couple of months, a new ranking agency puts together a list of the most and least powerful passports in the world based on factors such as visa-free travel and opportunities for cross-border business.

In January, global citizenship and financial advisory firm Arton Capital identified United Arab Emirates as having the most powerful passport in 2024. While the United States topped the list of one such ranking in 2014, worsening relations with a number of countries as well as stricter immigration rules even as other countries have taken strides to create opportunities for investors and digital nomads caused the American passport to slip in recent years.

A UAE passport grants holders visa-free or visa-on-arrival access to 180 of the world’s 198 countries (this calculation includes disputed territories such as Kosovo and Western Sahara) while Americans currently have the same access to 151 countries.

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