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Luongo: “What’s Coming Next Will Not Be Pretty”

Luongo: "What’s Coming Next Will Not Be Pretty"

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Luongo: "What's Coming Next Will Not Be Pretty" Tyler Durden Fri, 10/02/2020 - 16:21

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, 'n Guns blog,

While we were all distracted by the Kabuki Theater of the first ‘debate’ between Donald Trump and Joe Biden on Tuesday the bigger event was simply the turning of the calendar from September to October.

What is painful about so much market commentary is that it is focused on price. The Dow went up, huzzah! The dollar fell, huzzah?!

But prices are nothing without time. And most prices are meaningless. The only ones that truly matter are the ones we know definitively for any given period of time — Open, High, Low, Close.

Everything else is noise and errata.

So, the calendar shifting from September to October creates another opportunity to aggregate all the noise of two different time periods, one month and one quarter-year, and assess what people actually thought of the Dow or the dollar or Tesla or a micro-cap furniture company in Saigon.

Given the extreme political landscape, central bankers who have no answers and the obvious push for a remaking of society through the fear-mongering over COVID-19 this quarterly close may be one of the most important in the history of financial markets.

And the fight over important closing prices didn’t disappoint.

Last week I talked about what happens if the dollar really starts to rise, citing a massively bearish monthly chart pattern in the euro. To pull off one of the most bearish signals possible all the euro had to do was close below $1.1696 on Wednesday.

It didn’t. $1.1718 was the close. Bearish engulfing one-bar reversal avoided. Whew!

But for how long?

Germany slipped into deflation last quarter. The ECB can’t allow the euro to fall lest it begin putting upward pressure on rates as carry trades unwind. Right now the only thing keeping any of the markets afloat is insane levels of sovereign debt buying by central banks.

They are going through the motions that there are actual markets for these bonds and we are going through the motions that we actually want to own them.

If not for trillions in liquidity sloshing around looking for a home this whole system would collapse overnight. And yet there is no escape from it collapsing at some point anyway.

This is why the WEF’s Great Reset is happening. Those in power want to stay in power and remake the world in a different image. It’s becoming increasingly clear that COVID-19 is an excuse to introduce draconian lock downs to minimize the public’s outrage when they pull the plug on the current system.

Dividing the population into those that submit to this state of affairs and those who don’t was useful data for them. They now know how much push back they will get from the people and how many newly-minted brown shirts and Karens they will have to help them remake the world for the ‘common good.’

And whether anyone is aware of what is going on always shows up in the capital markets. The strong close by U.S. equity markets on Wednesday in the wake of Trump’s debate performance was your first clue.

As I noted in Wednesday’s post, “Elephants vote.”

Trump spoke to people’s elephants loudly and clearly amidst the calls from Chris Wallace and Joe Biden to, “Just shut up.” And those elephants realize that Trump is the only positive force in politics for the future of any vestige of capitalism.

Well, elephants also manage money.

And that’s why the subtle cues that happen in important markets after significant events are more important than 99% of all the price moves we see. It’s why obsessive ticker watching can easily lead you astray unless you are day-trading.

With the news that Donald Trump has COVID-19 and it’s not an asymptomatic post-hoc positive but rather a real diagnosis, the markets reacted badly to the news.

They want to believe there is a stimulus compromise coming from D.C. but as I’ve explained before, Pelosi and the Democrats work for the WEF and want the Great Reset to wipe us all out so they can remake the world and make it safe for their planned technocratic oligarchy.

But, the reality is that traders know this. That’s why the euro is weak today, stocks are closing the week with a whimper but U.S. markets look a helluva lot stronger than European ones.

Case in point. Here are the monthly charts for both the Dow Jones and the German DAX indexes.

The DAX is stuck below the 13,300 level and there is simply no appetite to take it higher. Look at the last four bars of the chart. It’s a strange pattern of higher highs and higher lows, which should be bullish but they are all, at the close, down bars — closing lower than the open.

That kind of non-committal action should be viewed as insider distribution rather than any kind of expression of strength. Powerful people trading the German markets are bailing on German stocks selling into the post-Coronapocalypse reaction rally high.

And they’ve been doing it for months.

Now, here’s the Dow Jones Industrials monthly chart. As Martin Armstrong routinely observes, the Dow is the best proxy for international capital movements into U.S. markets.

The Dow surged into the close on Wednesday (black arrow). It was the second-highest monthly close on record. That is remarkable given the state of the U.S. economy and the political desire to watch it burn.

Now I’m no fan of the larger bullhorn-like chart pattern stretching back four years and that signifies a potential crash in the future.

The differences between the DAX and the Dow Jones tell you that the smart people in Europe are moving their money out ahead of whatever is on the horizon.

But, right now, international equity markets are trading on the hope that Donald Trump wins re-election while the whole of the political class is expending every erg of capital they have to stop him and destroy the capital markets.

In spite of that, he is absolutely the odds-on favorite to win the election. Now whether or not he’ll be allowed to take office is a different story.

And the truth of it is all of what’s happening is their fault. They created this mess with moronic post-Keynesian economics, late-stage corporatist corruption and maleducating two generations into the believing Communism didn’t kill 200+ million people in the 20th century.

This is what undermined the structures built post-WWII as they’ve worked assiduously to weaken all social bonds, sow division and hide behind their minions in governments and the media.

Remember folks it’ll all be better when we embrace the Green New Deal Biden is confused about supporting and over throw everything good and decent in the world because there’s too much freedom in our first-world police states.

That’s the messaging of the Great Reset.

And if you don’t like what is planned well, they’ll be sending a bunch of UBI-sotted, fat-assed and tattooed BLM/Antifa thugs to your house to denounce you as racist while burning it down and taking your stuff while telling themselves their ‘fighting the power.’

What’s coming next will not be pretty regardless of Trump surviving COVID and getting re-elected. Deflation is here because it couldn’t be stopped. Now there is only oceans of money to print to throw into the abyss.

And that why there’s a plan in place and it will unfold because the people driving it have painted themselves into a corner if they want to retain power.

And they do at all costs.

*  *  *

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Survey Shows Declining Concerns Among Americans About COVID-19

Survey Shows Declining Concerns Among Americans About COVID-19

A new survey reveals that only 20% of Americans view covid-19 as "a major threat"…

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Survey Shows Declining Concerns Among Americans About COVID-19

A new survey reveals that only 20% of Americans view covid-19 as "a major threat" to the health of the US population - a sharp decline from a high of 67% in July 2020.

(SARMDY/Shutterstock)

What's more, the Pew Research Center survey conducted from Feb. 7 to Feb. 11 showed that just 10% of Americans are concerned that they will  catch the disease and require hospitalization.

"This data represents a low ebb of public concern about the virus that reached its height in the summer and fall of 2020, when as many as two-thirds of Americans viewed COVID-19 as a major threat to public health," reads the report, which was published March 7.

According to the survey, half of the participants understand the significance of researchers and healthcare providers in understanding and treating long COVID - however 27% of participants consider this issue less important, while 22% of Americans are unaware of long COVID.

What's more, while Democrats were far more worried than Republicans in the past, that gap has narrowed significantly.

"In the pandemic’s first year, Democrats were routinely about 40 points more likely than Republicans to view the coronavirus as a major threat to the health of the U.S. population. This gap has waned as overall levels of concern have fallen," reads the report.

More via the Epoch Times;

The survey found that three in ten Democrats under 50 have received an updated COVID-19 vaccine, compared with 66 percent of Democrats ages 65 and older.

Moreover, 66 percent of Democrats ages 65 and older have received the updated COVID-19 vaccine, while only 24 percent of Republicans ages 65 and older have done so.

“This 42-point partisan gap is much wider now than at other points since the start of the outbreak. For instance, in August 2021, 93 percent of older Democrats and 78 percent of older Republicans said they had received all the shots needed to be fully vaccinated (a 15-point gap),” it noted.

COVID-19 No Longer an Emergency

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently issued its updated recommendations for the virus, which no longer require people to stay home for five days after testing positive for COVID-19.

The updated guidance recommends that people who contracted a respiratory virus stay home, and they can resume normal activities when their symptoms improve overall and their fever subsides for 24 hours without medication.

“We still must use the commonsense solutions we know work to protect ourselves and others from serious illness from respiratory viruses, this includes vaccination, treatment, and staying home when we get sick,” CDC director Dr. Mandy Cohen said in a statement.

The CDC said that while the virus remains a threat, it is now less likely to cause severe illness because of widespread immunity and improved tools to prevent and treat the disease.

Importantly, states and countries that have already adjusted recommended isolation times have not seen increased hospitalizations or deaths related to COVID-19,” it stated.

The federal government suspended its free at-home COVID-19 test program on March 8, according to a website set up by the government, following a decrease in COVID-19-related hospitalizations.

According to the CDC, hospitalization rates for COVID-19 and influenza diseases remain “elevated” but are decreasing in some parts of the United States.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/10/2024 - 22:45

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Rand Paul Teases Senate GOP Leader Run – Musk Says “I Would Support”

Rand Paul Teases Senate GOP Leader Run – Musk Says "I Would Support"

Republican Kentucky Senator Rand Paul on Friday hinted that he may jump…

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Rand Paul Teases Senate GOP Leader Run - Musk Says "I Would Support"

Republican Kentucky Senator Rand Paul on Friday hinted that he may jump into the race to become the next Senate GOP leader, and Elon Musk was quick to support the idea. Republicans must find a successor for periodically malfunctioning Mitch McConnell, who recently announced he'll step down in November, though intending to keep his Senate seat until his term ends in January 2027, when he'd be within weeks of turning 86. 

So far, the announced field consists of two quintessential establishment types: John Cornyn of Texas and John Thune of South Dakota. While John Barrasso's name had been thrown around as one of "The Three Johns" considered top contenders, the Wyoming senator on Tuesday said he'll instead seek the number two slot as party whip. 

Paul used X to tease his potential bid for the position which -- if the GOP takes back the upper chamber in November -- could graduate from Minority Leader to Majority Leader. He started by telling his 5.1 million followers he'd had lots of people asking him about his interest in running...

...then followed up with a poll in which he predictably annihilated Cornyn and Thune, taking a 96% share as of Friday night, with the other two below 2% each. 

Elon Musk was quick to back the idea of Paul as GOP leader, while daring Cornyn and Thune to follow Paul's lead by throwing their names out for consideration by the Twitter-verse X-verse. 

Paul has been a stalwart opponent of security-state mass surveillance, foreign interventionism -- to include shoveling billions of dollars into the proxy war in Ukraine -- and out-of-control spending in general. He demonstrated the latter passion on the Senate floor this week as he ridiculed the latest kick-the-can spending package:   

In February, Paul used Senate rules to force his colleagues into a grueling Super Bowl weekend of votes, as he worked to derail a $95 billion foreign aid bill. "I think we should stay here as long as it takes,” said Paul. “If it takes a week or a month, I’ll force them to stay here to discuss why they think the border of Ukraine is more important than the US border.”

Don't expect a Majority Leader Paul to ditch the filibuster -- he's been a hardy user of the legislative delay tactic. In 2013, he spoke for 13 hours to fight the nomination of John Brennan as CIA director. In 2015, he orated for 10-and-a-half-hours to oppose extension of the Patriot Act

Rand Paul amid his 10 1/2 hour filibuster in 2015

Among the general public, Paul is probably best known as Capitol Hill's chief tormentor of Dr. Anthony Fauci, who was director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease during the Covid-19 pandemic. Paul says the evidence indicates the virus emerged from China's Wuhan Institute of Virology. He's accused Fauci and other members of the US government public health apparatus of evading questions about their funding of the Chinese lab's "gain of function" research, which takes natural viruses and morphs them into something more dangerous. Paul has pointedly said that Fauci committed perjury in congressional hearings and that he belongs in jail "without question."   

Musk is neither the only nor the first noteworthy figure to back Paul for party leader. Just hours after McConnell announced his upcoming step-down from leadership, independent 2024 presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr voiced his support: 

In a testament to the extent to which the establishment recoils at the libertarian-minded Paul, mainstream media outlets -- which have been quick to report on other developments in the majority leader race -- pretended not to notice that Paul had signaled his interest in the job. More than 24 hours after Paul's test-the-waters tweet-fest began, not a single major outlet had brought it to the attention of their audience. 

That may be his strongest endorsement yet. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/10/2024 - 20:25

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The Great Replacement Loophole: Illegal Immigrants Score 5-Year Work Benefit While “Waiting” For Deporation, Asylum

The Great Replacement Loophole: Illegal Immigrants Score 5-Year Work Benefit While "Waiting" For Deporation, Asylum

Over the past several…

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The Great Replacement Loophole: Illegal Immigrants Score 5-Year Work Benefit While "Waiting" For Deporation, Asylum

Over the past several months we've pointed out that there has  been zero job creation for native-born workers since the summer of 2018...

... and that since Joe Biden was sworn into office, most of the post-pandemic job gains the administration continuously brags about have gone foreign-born (read immigrants, mostly illegal ones) workers.

And while the left might find this data almost as verboten as FBI crime statistics - as it directly supports the so-called "great replacement theory" we're not supposed to discuss - it also coincides with record numbers of illegal crossings into the United States under Biden.

In short, the Biden administration opened the floodgates, 10 million illegal immigrants poured into the country, and most of the post-pandemic "jobs recovery" went to foreign-born workers, of which illegal immigrants represent the largest chunk.

Asylum seekers from Venezuela await work permits on June 28, 2023 (via the Chicago Tribune)

'But Tyler, illegal immigrants can't possibly work in the United States whilst awaiting their asylum hearings,' one might hear from the peanut gallery. On the contrary: ever since Biden reversed a key aspect of Trump's labor policies, all illegal immigrants - even those awaiting deportation proceedings - have been given carte blanche to work while awaiting said proceedings for up to five years...

... something which even Elon Musk was shocked to learn.

Which leads us to another question: recall that the primary concern for the Biden admin for much of 2022 and 2023 was soaring prices, i.e., relentless inflation in general, and rising wages in particular, which in turn prompted even Goldman to admit two years ago that the diabolical wage-price spiral had been unleashed in the US (diabolical, because nothing absent a major economic shock, read recession or depression, can short-circuit it once it is in place).

Well, there is one other thing that can break the wage-price spiral loop: a flood of ultra-cheap illegal immigrant workers. But don't take our word for it: here is Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself during his February 60 Minutes interview:

PELLEY: Why was immigration important?

POWELL: Because, you know, immigrants come in, and they tend to work at a rate that is at or above that for non-immigrants. Immigrants who come to the country tend to be in the workforce at a slightly higher level than native Americans do. But that's largely because of the age difference. They tend to skew younger.

PELLEY: Why is immigration so important to the economy?

POWELL: Well, first of all, immigration policy is not the Fed's job. The immigration policy of the United States is really important and really much under discussion right now, and that's none of our business. We don't set immigration policy. We don't comment on it.

I will say, over time, though, the U.S. economy has benefited from immigration. And, frankly, just in the last, year a big part of the story of the labor market coming back into better balance is immigration returning to levels that were more typical of the pre-pandemic era.

PELLEY: The country needed the workers.

POWELL: It did. And so, that's what's been happening.

Translation: Immigrants work hard, and Americans are lazy. But much more importantly, since illegal immigrants will work for any pay, and since Biden's Department of Homeland Security, via its Citizenship and Immigration Services Agency, has made it so illegal immigrants can work in the US perfectly legally for up to 5 years (if not more), one can argue that the flood of illegals through the southern border has been the primary reason why inflation - or rather mostly wage inflation, that all too critical component of the wage-price spiral  - has moderated in in the past year, when the US labor market suddenly found itself flooded with millions of perfectly eligible workers, who just also happen to be illegal immigrants and thus have zero wage bargaining options.

None of this is to suggest that the relentless flood of immigrants into the US is not also driven by voting and census concerns - something Elon Musk has been pounding the table on in recent weeks, and has gone so far to call it "the biggest corruption of American democracy in the 21st century", but in retrospect, one can also argue that the only modest success the Biden admin has had in the past year - namely bringing inflation down from a torrid 9% annual rate to "only" 3% - has also been due to the millions of illegals he's imported into the country.

We would be remiss if we didn't also note that this so often carries catastrophic short-term consequences for the social fabric of the country (the Laken Riley fiasco being only the latest example), not to mention the far more dire long-term consequences for the future of the US - chief among them the trillions of dollars in debt the US will need to incur to pay for all those new illegal immigrants Democrat voters and low-paid workers. This is on top of the labor revolution that will kick in once AI leads to mass layoffs among high-paying, white-collar jobs, after which all those newly laid off native-born workers hoping to trade down to lower paying (if available) jobs will discover that hardened criminals from Honduras or Guatemala have already taken them, all thanks to Joe Biden.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/10/2024 - 19:15

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