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Low Volatility Streak Ends at 102 Days – What’s Next?

Yesterday the S&P 500 daily streak without a greater than 1.5% daily loss came to end. What happens next? Expanding on our initial research we present…

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Yesterday the S&P 500 daily streak without a greater than 1.5% daily loss came to end. What happens next? Expanding on our initial research we present the S&P 500 performance during the following three days after the last 42 “big down days” since 1950.

Historically the following day has essentially been a coin toss, up slightly more than half the time with an average gain of just 0.001%. The second day after is modestly more bullish, but still not overwhelmingly so, up 54.8% of the time with an average gain of 54.8%. The third day after has been bearish, down 59.5% of the time with an average loss of 0.19%. In the near term, it appears the S&P 500 tends to bounce around while trader and investors digest the full impacts to the catalyst that triggered the “big down day.” This time it was the Fed clearly stating that rates will be higher for longer and are likely to go higher yet.

Expanding the timeframe does not improve the near-term outlook. In the following monster table, performance on the “big down day” and to the subsequent low sometime during the next 90 calendar days have been added. “Big down day” losses are now excluded from the performance 1-week, 2-weeks, 1-month, and 3-months after.

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Over the following 90 calendar days, the low on the “big down day’ was breached 88.1% of the time. Only five times did the S&P 500 not make a lower low, 1961, 1963, 1965, 1968 and 2017. The average decline was 5.44%. The lower low arrived within 2 weeks, 14 times, and took more than 2 weeks 23 times. This suggests the quicker the S&P 500 can shake off its current concerns, the better, but if they persist then more volatility and chop is likely along with sideways to lower trading.

We still anticipate additional weakness through September and potentially into October. September-Octoberphobia combined with inflation and rate fears is likely to trigger further market weakness over the next month or so. The potential for another federal government shutdown is also rising and could weigh on the market. We do, however, expect this weakness to be temporary, in the minor correction range of 5-10% from recent highs in July/early-August. And this should set up our perennial pre-election year Q4 rally and a solid “Best Months” Seasonal MACD Buy Signal.

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One more airline cracks down on lounge crowding in a way you won’t like

Qantas Airways is increasing the price of accessing its network of lounges by as much as 17%.

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Over the last two years, multiple airlines have dealt with crowding in their lounges. While they are designed as a luxury experience for a small subset of travelers, high numbers of people taking a trip post-pandemic as well as the different ways they are able to gain access through status or certain credit cards made it difficult for some airlines to keep up with keeping foods stocked, common areas clean and having enough staff to serve bar drinks at the rate that customers expect them.

In the fall of 2023, Delta Air Lines  (DAL)  caught serious traveler outcry after announcing that it was cracking down on crowding by raising how much one needs to spend for lounge access and limiting the number of times one can enter those lounges.

Related: Competitors pushed Delta to backtrack on its lounge and loyalty program changes

Some airlines saw the outcry with Delta as their chance to reassure customers that they would not raise their fees while others waited for the storm to pass to quietly implement their own increases.

A photograph captures a Qantas Airways lounge in Sydney, Australia.

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This is how much more you'll have to pay for Qantas lounge access

Australia's flagship carrier Qantas Airways  (QUBSF)  is the latest airline to announce that it would raise the cost accessing the 24 lounges across the country as well as the 600 international lounges available at airports across the world through partner airlines.

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Unlike other airlines which grant access primarily after reaching frequent flyer status, Qantas also sells it through a membership — starting from April 18, 2024, prices will rise from $600 Australian dollars ($392 USD)  to $699 AUD ($456 USD) for one year, $1,100 ($718 USD) to $1,299 ($848 USD) for two years and $2,000 AUD ($1,304) to lock in the rate for four years.

Those signing up for lounge access for the first time also currently pay a joining fee of $99 AUD ($65 USD) that will rise to $129 AUD ($85 USD).

The airline also allows customers to purchase their membership with Qantas Points they collect through frequent travel; the membership fees are also being raised by the equivalent amount in points in what adds up to as much as 17% — from 308,000 to 399,900 to lock in access for four years.

Airline says hikes will 'cover cost increases passed on from suppliers'

"This is the first time the Qantas Club membership fees have increased in seven years and will help cover cost increases passed on from a range of suppliers over that time," a Qantas spokesperson confirmed to Simple Flying. "This follows a reduction in the membership fees for several years during the pandemic."

The spokesperson said the gains from the increases will go both towards making up for inflation-related costs and keeping existing lounges looking modern by updating features like furniture and décor.

While the price increases also do not apply for those who earned lounge access through frequent flyer status or change what it takes to earn that status, Qantas is also introducing even steeper increases for those renewing a membership or adding additional features such as spouse and partner memberships.

In some cases, the cost of these features will nearly double from what members are paying now.

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Star Wars icon gives his support to Disney, Bob Iger

Disney shareholders have a huge decision to make on April 3.

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Disney's  (DIS)  been facing some headwinds up top, but its leadership just got backing from one of the company's more prominent investors.

Star Wars creator George Lucas put out of statement in support of the company's current leadership team, led by CEO Bob Iger, ahead of the April 3 shareholders meeting which will see investors vote on the company's 12-member board.

"Creating magic is not for amateurs," Lucas said in a statement. "When I sold Lucasfilm just over a decade ago, I was delighted to become a Disney shareholder because of my long-time admiration for its iconic brand and Bob Iger’s leadership. When Bob recently returned to the company during a difficult time, I was relieved. No one knows Disney better. I remain a significant shareholder because I have full faith and confidence in the power of Disney and Bob’s track record of driving long-term value. I have voted all of my shares for Disney’s 12 directors and urge other shareholders to do the same."

Related: Disney stands against Nelson Peltz as leadership succession plan heats up

Lucasfilm was acquired by Disney for $4 billion in 2012 — notably under the first term of Iger. He received over 37 million in shares of Disney during the acquisition.

Lucas' statement seems to be an attempt to push investors away from the criticism coming from The Trian Partners investment group, led by Nelson Peltz. The group, owns about $3 million in shares of the media giant, is pushing two candidates for positions on the board, which are Peltz and former Disney CFO Jay Rasulo.

HOLLYWOOD, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 14: George Lucas attends the Los Angeles Premiere of LucasFilms' "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny" at Dolby Theatre on June 14, 2023 in Hollywood, California. (Photo by Axelle/Bauer-Griffin/FilmMagic)

Axelle/Bauer-Griffin/Getty Images

Peltz and Co. have called out a pair of Disney directors — Michael Froman and Maria Elena Lagomasino — for their lack of experience in the media space.

Related: Women's basketball is gaining ground, but is March Madness ready to rival the men's game?

Blackwells Capital is also pushing three of its candidates to take seats during the early April shareholder meeting, though Reuters has reported that the firm has been supportive of the company's current direction.

Disney has struggled in recent years amid the changes in media and the effects of the pandemic — which triggered the return of Iger at the helm in late 2022. After going through mass layoffs in the spring of 2023 and focusing on key growth brands, the company has seen a steady recovery with its stock up over 25% year-to-date and around 40% for the last six months.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Another airline is making lounge fees more expensive

Qantas Airways is increasing the price of accessing its network of lounges by as much as 17%.

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on

Over the last two years, multiple airlines have dealt with crowding in their lounges. While they are designed as a luxury experience for a small subset of travelers, high numbers of people taking a trip post-pandemic as well as the different ways they are able to gain access through status or certain credit cards made it difficult for some airlines to keep up with keeping foods stocked, common areas clean and having enough staff to serve bar drinks at the rate that customers expect them.

In the fall of 2023, Delta Air Lines  (DAL)  caught serious traveler outcry after announcing that it was cracking down on crowding by raising how much one needs to spend for lounge access and limiting the number of times one can enter those lounges.

Related: Competitors pushed Delta to backtrack on its lounge and loyalty program changes

Some airlines saw the outcry with Delta as their chance to reassure customers that they would not raise their fees while others waited for the storm to pass to quietly implement their own increases.

A photograph captures a Qantas Airways lounge in Sydney, Australia.

Shutterstock

This is how much more you'll have to pay for Qantas lounge access

Australia's flagship carrier Qantas Airways  (QUBSF)  is the latest airline to announce that it would raise the cost accessing the 24 lounges across the country as well as the 600 international lounges available at airports across the world through partner airlines.

More Travel:

Unlike other airlines which grant access primarily after reaching frequent flyer status, Qantas also sells it through a membership — starting from April 18, 2024, prices will rise from $600 Australian dollars ($392 USD)  to $699 AUD ($456 USD) for one year, $1,100 ($718 USD) to $1,299 ($848 USD) for two years and $2,000 AUD ($1,304) to lock in the rate for four years.

Those signing up for lounge access for the first time also currently pay a joining fee of $99 AUD ($65 USD) that will rise to $129 AUD ($85 USD).

The airline also allows customers to purchase their membership with Qantas Points they collect through frequent travel; the membership fees are also being raised by the equivalent amount in points in what adds up to as much as 17% — from 308,000 to 399,900 to lock in access for four years.

Airline says hikes will 'cover cost increases passed on from suppliers'

"This is the first time the Qantas Club membership fees have increased in seven years and will help cover cost increases passed on from a range of suppliers over that time," a Qantas spokesperson confirmed to Simple Flying. "This follows a reduction in the membership fees for several years during the pandemic."

The spokesperson said the gains from the increases will go both towards making up for inflation-related costs and keeping existing lounges looking modern by updating features like furniture and décor.

While the price increases also do not apply for those who earned lounge access through frequent flyer status or change what it takes to earn that status, Qantas is also introducing even steeper increases for those renewing a membership or adding additional features such as spouse and partner memberships.

In some cases, the cost of these features will nearly double from what members are paying now.

Read More

Continue Reading

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