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Jack Ma Missing; 2020 In 12 Stunning Charts

Whitney Tilson’s email to investors discussing Jack Ma suspected to be missing; 2020 in 12 stunning charts; Enrique Abeyta‘s bullish outlook; great news quiz of 2020. Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Jack Ma Suspected To Be Missing…

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Jack Ma Missing Jack Ma worry about competition

Whitney Tilson’s email to investors discussing Jack Ma suspected to be missing; 2020 in 12 stunning charts; Enrique Abeyta‘s bullish outlook; great news quiz of 2020.

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Q3 2020 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

Jack Ma Suspected To Be Missing

1) Wow, what a reminder about the type of government we're dealing with in China... Jack Ma Suspected to Be Missing - CNBC TV18. Excerpt:

Mystery has deepened about the whereabouts of Chinese billionaire Jack Ma following reports that the Alibaba founder has not made any public appearance in the last two months...

The entire episode is further intriguing given that in the past, there have been a few billionaires in China who suddenly disappeared.

Between 2016 and 2017, during China's infamous anti-corruption drive, a number of billionaires went missing. While some reappeared, stating that they were 'helping the authorities,' others never returned.

This is why I won't invest in China (ditto for Russia) – at the end of the day, there's no rule of law.

2020 In 12 Stunning Charts

2) I enjoyed this ZeroHedge article: 2020 in 12 Stunning Charts. Here are my favorite parts:

  • The rally off the [March 2020] lows (Exhibit 9) has surpassed all of the four greatest rallies off the lows of the past century (1929, 1938, 1974, and 2009).

  • Wall St. optimism heading into 2021 means the S&P 500 trades on a trailing [price-to-earnings ratio] PE of >25X (Exhibit 10), a level only exceeded in 1921 and 1999.
  • The capitulation of consensus to "don't fight the Fed," front-running MMT, secular tech-led productivity... many catalysts exist for more years of big equity gains... but an old-fashioned bubble remains most plausible catalyst.

  • Wall St. in 2020 was also marked by significant polarization of returns: in recent months, the top five companies in the S&P 500 represented a breathtaking 25% of the index (Exhibit 11).
  • The rally broadened by style, sector, size & region in 2020, and the year ended with the majority of equity & credit investors adopting a fashionable "barbell" approach to investing.

3) This related ZeroHedge article had two more charts that caught my eye...

The first shows that short interest as a percentage of the market cap of S&P 500 Index companies is at the lowest level in at least 16 years, reflecting no doubt the pain that short sellers have been feeling nearly the entire period since March 2009:

And the second chart shows that a basket of stocks most popular with retail investors (think the Robinhood crowd) outperformed those owned by hedge funds by 14 to 1 in 2020!

Enrique Abeyta's Bullish Outlook

4) So, do all of these signs mean the market is about to correct (or worse)? My colleague Enrique Abeyta, who knocked it out of the park in 2020, thinks not. Here's an excerpt from his weekly newsletter, Empire Elite Trader, in which he explains why:

Moving on to the outlook for 2021, I remain bullish.

I can break this market view down into four key pieces:

1. Interest rates remain low.

Inflation remains low, and global financial authorities likely want to keep the liquidity flowing given the ongoing recovery from COVID-19. This is unlikely to change in 2021.

2. Massive liquidity injections.

This is the same rationale as above. In the chart below, you can see the year-over-year percent change in "M2" – the measure of money in the economy. I've shared several versions of this chart throughout the year... and you can see that the U.S. Federal Reserve's liquidity injection is still moving higher:

Similar to the interest rate situation, it's likely that global monetary authorities keep the money (or "oxygen") flowing to the economy.

Remember, more money supply means more money to buy assets – whether precious metals, baseball cards, cars, real estate, bitcoin, or stocks.

As long as this liquidity flows, the bias in asset prices will likely be upward.

3. Global synchronized economic growth.

In my 25-plus years of looking at financial markets, I've never been as confident about economic growth as I am right now.

It just comes down to the math.

Think about it... The globe went into a hard lockdown from March to May. Restaurants, gyms, most retail stores – closed.

In 2021, many (if not most) of those will be open. That means more economic activity than the year before.

This will continue pretty much through 2022... and it will happen everywhere.

I've never seen global synchronized economic growth like this... and it's a positive for the stock market.

4. Massive company-level earnings growth.

This works using the same math as above.

Think of airlines, for instance. Those that survive will see massive increases in revenue and earnings. So will casinos... and so will restaurants.

All of this will drive overall earnings growth higher. And where earnings go, stocks follow.

Many investors will respond, "How much of this is priced in?"

As regular Empire Elite Trader readers know, I don't think that's necessarily how it works.

This sentiment implies that there's some valuation at which the market is "correct." Instead, stocks (and markets) go up when there are more enthusiastic buyers than sellers... and down when the sellers are more enthusiastic.

With low interest rates, lots of incremental money printing, and massive economic and earnings growth, the buyers will likely be much more enthusiastic.

Despite this bullish outlook, keep in mind that we will see corrections.

Remember, a correction is different than a bear market (although it may not feel that way in the heat of it).

In my view, a "bear" market is a multiyear downdraft that takes the market down 30%, 50%, or even 70%. It's likely that we'll see another one (or possibly even more than one) of these in our lifetimes... just not in 2021.

But with the kind of explosive upside we're currently seeing this market – especially fueled by massive liquidity – don't be surprised by a 30% "correction."

In the type of market I envision, investors can see some of the best returns of their careers... but the plan and how they trade that plan will be paramount.

Thank you, Enrique!

He had a monster year in 2020... and I can't wait to see what he has lined up for 2021. If you're not already subscribed to Empire Elite Trader, you're missing out... You can learn more and sign up right here.

Great News Quiz of 2020

5) Despite only correctly answering 18 of 30 questions – an embarrassing performance! – I really enjoyed the New York Times' Great News Quiz of 2020.

Best regards,

Whitney

The post Jack Ma Missing; 2020 In 12 Stunning Charts appeared first on ValueWalk.

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Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more

New Zillow research suggests the spring home shopping season may see a second wave this summer if mortgage rates fall
The post Homes listed for sale in…

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  • A Zillow analysis of 2023 home sales finds homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more. 
  • The best time to list a home for sale is a month later than it was in 2019, likely driven by mortgage rates.
  • The best time to list can be as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York and Philadelphia. 

Spring home sellers looking to maximize their sale price may want to wait it out and list their home for sale in the first half of June. A new Zillow® analysis of 2023 sales found that homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more, a $7,700 boost on a typical U.S. home.  

The best time to list consistently had been early May in the years leading up to the pandemic. The shift to June suggests mortgage rates are strongly influencing demand on top of the usual seasonality that brings buyers to the market in the spring. This home-shopping season is poised to follow a similar pattern as that in 2023, with the potential for a second wave if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates midyear or later. 

The 2.3% sale price premium registered last June followed the first spring in more than 15 years with mortgage rates over 6% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. The high rates put home buyers on the back foot, and as rates continued upward through May, they were still reassessing and less likely to bid boldly. In June, however, rates pulled back a little from 6.79% to 6.67%, which likely presented an opportunity for determined buyers heading into summer. More buyers understood their market position and could afford to transact, boosting competition and sale prices.

The old logic was that sellers could earn a premium by listing in late spring, when search activity hit its peak. Now, with persistently low inventory, mortgage rate fluctuations make their own seasonality. First-time home buyers who are on the edge of qualifying for a home loan may dip in and out of the market, depending on what’s happening with rates. It is almost certain the Federal Reserve will push back any interest-rate cuts to mid-2024 at the earliest. If mortgage rates follow, that could bring another surge of buyers later this year.

Mortgage rates have been impacting affordability and sale prices since they began rising rapidly two years ago. In 2022, sellers nationwide saw the highest sale premium when they listed their home in late March, right before rates barreled past 5% and continued climbing. 

Zillow’s research finds the best time to list can vary widely by metropolitan area. In 2023, it was as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York. Thirty of the top 35 largest metro areas saw for-sale listings command the highest sale prices between May and early July last year. 

Zillow also found a wide range in the sale price premiums associated with homes listed during those peak periods. At the hottest time of the year in San Jose, homes sold for 5.5% more, a $88,000 boost on a typical home. Meanwhile, homes in San Antonio sold for 1.9% more during that same time period.  

 

Metropolitan Area Best Time to List Price Premium Dollar Boost
United States First half of June 2.3% $7,700
New York, NY First half of July 2.4% $15,500
Los Angeles, CA First half of May 4.1% $39,300
Chicago, IL First half of June 2.8% $8,800
Dallas, TX First half of June 2.5% $9,200
Houston, TX Second half of April 2.0% $6,200
Washington, DC Second half of June 2.2% $12,700
Philadelphia, PA First half of July 2.4% $8,200
Miami, FL First half of June 2.3% $12,900
Atlanta, GA Second half of June 2.3% $8,700
Boston, MA Second half of May 3.5% $23,600
Phoenix, AZ First half of June 3.2% $14,700
San Francisco, CA Second half of February 4.2% $50,300
Riverside, CA First half of May 2.7% $15,600
Detroit, MI First half of July 3.3% $7,900
Seattle, WA First half of June 4.3% $31,500
Minneapolis, MN Second half of May 3.7% $13,400
San Diego, CA Second half of April 3.1% $29,600
Tampa, FL Second half of June 2.1% $8,000
Denver, CO Second half of May 2.9% $16,900
Baltimore, MD First half of July 2.2% $8,200
St. Louis, MO First half of June 2.9% $7,000
Orlando, FL First half of June 2.2% $8,700
Charlotte, NC Second half of May 3.0% $11,000
San Antonio, TX First half of June 1.9% $5,400
Portland, OR Second half of April 2.6% $14,300
Sacramento, CA First half of June 3.2% $17,900
Pittsburgh, PA Second half of June 2.3% $4,700
Cincinnati, OH Second half of April 2.7% $7,500
Austin, TX Second half of May 2.8% $12,600
Las Vegas, NV First half of June 3.4% $14,600
Kansas City, MO Second half of May 2.5% $7,300
Columbus, OH Second half of June 3.3% $10,400
Indianapolis, IN First half of July 3.0% $8,100
Cleveland, OH First half of July  3.4% $7,400
San Jose, CA First half of June 5.5% $88,400

 

The post Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more appeared first on Zillow Research.

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Survey Shows Declining Concerns Among Americans About COVID-19

Survey Shows Declining Concerns Among Americans About COVID-19

A new survey reveals that only 20% of Americans view covid-19 as "a major threat"…

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Survey Shows Declining Concerns Among Americans About COVID-19

A new survey reveals that only 20% of Americans view covid-19 as "a major threat" to the health of the US population - a sharp decline from a high of 67% in July 2020.

(SARMDY/Shutterstock)

What's more, the Pew Research Center survey conducted from Feb. 7 to Feb. 11 showed that just 10% of Americans are concerned that they will  catch the disease and require hospitalization.

"This data represents a low ebb of public concern about the virus that reached its height in the summer and fall of 2020, when as many as two-thirds of Americans viewed COVID-19 as a major threat to public health," reads the report, which was published March 7.

According to the survey, half of the participants understand the significance of researchers and healthcare providers in understanding and treating long COVID - however 27% of participants consider this issue less important, while 22% of Americans are unaware of long COVID.

What's more, while Democrats were far more worried than Republicans in the past, that gap has narrowed significantly.

"In the pandemic’s first year, Democrats were routinely about 40 points more likely than Republicans to view the coronavirus as a major threat to the health of the U.S. population. This gap has waned as overall levels of concern have fallen," reads the report.

More via the Epoch Times;

The survey found that three in ten Democrats under 50 have received an updated COVID-19 vaccine, compared with 66 percent of Democrats ages 65 and older.

Moreover, 66 percent of Democrats ages 65 and older have received the updated COVID-19 vaccine, while only 24 percent of Republicans ages 65 and older have done so.

“This 42-point partisan gap is much wider now than at other points since the start of the outbreak. For instance, in August 2021, 93 percent of older Democrats and 78 percent of older Republicans said they had received all the shots needed to be fully vaccinated (a 15-point gap),” it noted.

COVID-19 No Longer an Emergency

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently issued its updated recommendations for the virus, which no longer require people to stay home for five days after testing positive for COVID-19.

The updated guidance recommends that people who contracted a respiratory virus stay home, and they can resume normal activities when their symptoms improve overall and their fever subsides for 24 hours without medication.

“We still must use the commonsense solutions we know work to protect ourselves and others from serious illness from respiratory viruses, this includes vaccination, treatment, and staying home when we get sick,” CDC director Dr. Mandy Cohen said in a statement.

The CDC said that while the virus remains a threat, it is now less likely to cause severe illness because of widespread immunity and improved tools to prevent and treat the disease.

Importantly, states and countries that have already adjusted recommended isolation times have not seen increased hospitalizations or deaths related to COVID-19,” it stated.

The federal government suspended its free at-home COVID-19 test program on March 8, according to a website set up by the government, following a decrease in COVID-19-related hospitalizations.

According to the CDC, hospitalization rates for COVID-19 and influenza diseases remain “elevated” but are decreasing in some parts of the United States.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/10/2024 - 22:45

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International

Rand Paul Teases Senate GOP Leader Run – Musk Says “I Would Support”

Rand Paul Teases Senate GOP Leader Run – Musk Says "I Would Support"

Republican Kentucky Senator Rand Paul on Friday hinted that he may jump…

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Rand Paul Teases Senate GOP Leader Run - Musk Says "I Would Support"

Republican Kentucky Senator Rand Paul on Friday hinted that he may jump into the race to become the next Senate GOP leader, and Elon Musk was quick to support the idea. Republicans must find a successor for periodically malfunctioning Mitch McConnell, who recently announced he'll step down in November, though intending to keep his Senate seat until his term ends in January 2027, when he'd be within weeks of turning 86. 

So far, the announced field consists of two quintessential establishment types: John Cornyn of Texas and John Thune of South Dakota. While John Barrasso's name had been thrown around as one of "The Three Johns" considered top contenders, the Wyoming senator on Tuesday said he'll instead seek the number two slot as party whip. 

Paul used X to tease his potential bid for the position which -- if the GOP takes back the upper chamber in November -- could graduate from Minority Leader to Majority Leader. He started by telling his 5.1 million followers he'd had lots of people asking him about his interest in running...

...then followed up with a poll in which he predictably annihilated Cornyn and Thune, taking a 96% share as of Friday night, with the other two below 2% each. 

Elon Musk was quick to back the idea of Paul as GOP leader, while daring Cornyn and Thune to follow Paul's lead by throwing their names out for consideration by the Twitter-verse X-verse. 

Paul has been a stalwart opponent of security-state mass surveillance, foreign interventionism -- to include shoveling billions of dollars into the proxy war in Ukraine -- and out-of-control spending in general. He demonstrated the latter passion on the Senate floor this week as he ridiculed the latest kick-the-can spending package:   

In February, Paul used Senate rules to force his colleagues into a grueling Super Bowl weekend of votes, as he worked to derail a $95 billion foreign aid bill. "I think we should stay here as long as it takes,” said Paul. “If it takes a week or a month, I’ll force them to stay here to discuss why they think the border of Ukraine is more important than the US border.”

Don't expect a Majority Leader Paul to ditch the filibuster -- he's been a hardy user of the legislative delay tactic. In 2013, he spoke for 13 hours to fight the nomination of John Brennan as CIA director. In 2015, he orated for 10-and-a-half-hours to oppose extension of the Patriot Act

Rand Paul amid his 10 1/2 hour filibuster in 2015

Among the general public, Paul is probably best known as Capitol Hill's chief tormentor of Dr. Anthony Fauci, who was director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease during the Covid-19 pandemic. Paul says the evidence indicates the virus emerged from China's Wuhan Institute of Virology. He's accused Fauci and other members of the US government public health apparatus of evading questions about their funding of the Chinese lab's "gain of function" research, which takes natural viruses and morphs them into something more dangerous. Paul has pointedly said that Fauci committed perjury in congressional hearings and that he belongs in jail "without question."   

Musk is neither the only nor the first noteworthy figure to back Paul for party leader. Just hours after McConnell announced his upcoming step-down from leadership, independent 2024 presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr voiced his support: 

In a testament to the extent to which the establishment recoils at the libertarian-minded Paul, mainstream media outlets -- which have been quick to report on other developments in the majority leader race -- pretended not to notice that Paul had signaled his interest in the job. More than 24 hours after Paul's test-the-waters tweet-fest began, not a single major outlet had brought it to the attention of their audience. 

That may be his strongest endorsement yet. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/10/2024 - 20:25

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