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Is It Too Late to Invest in Pfizer and Moderna?

Is It Too Late to Invest in Pfizer and Moderna? Since the beginning of the pandemic, we’ve seen crazy returns (and some tough weeks) from biotech giants Pfizer and Moderna, both of which are known for producing COVID-19 vaccines, among other things. …

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Is It Too Late to Invest in Pfizer and Moderna?

Since the beginning of the pandemic, we’ve seen crazy returns (and some tough weeks) from biotech giants Pfizer and Moderna, both of which are known for producing COVID-19 vaccines, among other things. 

While both companies have even more programs in the works to help in the fight against the coronavirus, some investors are wondering whether or not these future products are already priced in. So, is it too late to invest in Pfizer and Moderna?

Before we get started, I'd like to add that I am no medical expert! The opinions in this article are purely related to finance, and if you want to learn more about the medical side of things I recommend you visit the CDC website.

Let’s take a look.

What Does “Priced In” Mean?

If you’ve been a Wall Street Survivor for awhile now, you know that stocks (and other assets) are priced according to their future cash flow

In order to find the present value of an asset, you take its future cash flows and use a specific discount rate to “discount” them, or find out what they’re worth today. Then, you add all of these discounted future cash flows up to find the value of the asset.

The only problem with using discounted cash flows to price stocks is that we don’t actually know the amount of the cash flows that the stock is going to produce in the future. We have to do research and make educated guesses as to how the company is going to perform in the coming years. This is not an easy thing to do, and financial professionals spend years learning how to make accurate valuations. 

Generally, a consensus among financial analysts will determine the price that a company’s stock will gravitate towards.

 For example, let’s say all of the financial analysts around the world did some financial modeling for Microsoft this week. Microsoft is currently trading at $295, but the analysts made educated guesses about Microsoft’s future cash flows and a majority of them determined that MSFT is undervalued by $5. After the analysts published their findings, you would see Microsoft’s stock price increase to $300 as investors rush to take advantage of this opportunity. If the analysts were right, then Microsoft’s stock price will remain at $300 when it reports earnings. If the analysts were wrong, then the stock’s price will increase or decrease after earnings are reported. 

The point is that just because one of the companies in your portfolio does well, doesn’t necessarily mean its stock price is going to rise. 

If you buy Apple stock right before an iPhone release because you think the new iPhone is going to do well, but you’re surprised to find that Apple’s stock price doesn’t rise after the iPhone does do well, you might have bought the stock after that future performance was already priced in. All of the financial analysts might have already guessed that the iPhone was going to do well, so Apple’s stock price had already risen to reflect that good future performance. 

In order to generate excess returns on your stock investments, your stocks can’t just perform well; they have to perform better than expected. So if the whole world thinks a stock is going to perform well, that future performance is already priced in. The stock would have to perform even better than the world thinks in order for you to make a profit. 

To find an undervalued stock, you have to disagree with its current price even after you take into account all of the future performance that’s already priced in.

So, this leads us to the point of this article: are biotech stocks’ upcoming endeavors already priced in, or is there a chance to make some money here?

Note: before you decide whether or not you want to add Pfizer and Moderna to your portfolio, you have to have a brokerage account! If you want to get started with commission-free trading (including fractional shares and cryptocurrency), I strongly recommend Robinhood.

Pfizer

Pfizer Moderna Pfizer Logo

If Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) wasn’t already a household name before COVID-19 vaccines became a relevant topic, it certainly is now. Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine was the first to gain emergency FDA approval, making it the leader in the fight against the coronavirus. 

Clinical trials are often what determines sharp increases and decreases in a pharmaceutical company’s stock price. When a particular drug does well in clinical trials, the company’s stock will increase. If a drug gets shot down in trials, the stock will likely take a hit. The good news here is that Pfizer’s stock has been given quite a bit of fuel due to its coronavirus vaccine, reaching new highs in the last few months. The bad news is that there’s always time for a bad trial that could put a damper on the stock.

Analysts are currently rating Pfizer as both “buy” and “hold.” With booster shots and Delta variant protection on the table, Pfizer has an opportunity to make some big moves that could bolster its stock. And even if the stock doesn’t see any new COVID-19 developments, Pfizer has still established itself as a household name in pharmaceuticals and biotech, meaning it’s here to stay. This could be a good opportunity for a long-term investment lasting far beyond the pandemic.

Pfizer and Moderna are receiving tons of attention from investors around the world. Unfortunately, many U.S.-based brokerages don't allow non-citizens to open accounts with them. If you live outside the United States, you should check out Interactive Brokers, our #1 recommended broker for international traders!

Moderna

Pfizer Moderna Moderna Logo

Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) is the other name that most would think of when it comes to COVID-19 vaccines. Moderna’s shot is similar to Pfizer’s in terms of efficacy, and has been performing very well in terms of protection against infections and harsh side effects from coronavirus variants like the Delta variant.

While Moderna’s vaccine is performing its job quite well, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the company’s sales are plummeting as the number of Americans in need of the vaccine falls. In fact, Moderna has still been making moves as restrictions on vaccinations are peeled back. For example, Moderna has been making deals to ship its shots to other countries in South America and Europe, and sales will likely be supported by younger patients as they receive permission to get vaccinated.

And much like Pfizer, Moderna isn’t necessarily going to be in trouble once the demand COVID-19 vaccines falls off. It is currently working on over 10 products that could mean protection from or treatment for some of the viruses for which we still don’t have treatment. As these vaccines and other drugs go through clinical trials in the near and distant future, Moderna could see some big jumps (and drops) in its stock price.

Moderna is also currently seeing both “buy” and “hold” ratings from analysts.

Analysts' opinions on stocks can be confusing and full of high-level finance jargon. If you want to see clear, easy-to-read opinions meant for the everyday investor, the Motley Fool is a great place to start. They also have a stock picking list called Stock Advisor that has beaten the market by almost 500% since its inception! You can also read our review of the Motley Fool here.

The Bottom Line

Pfizer Moderna Vials

If you had invested in Pfizer and Moderna at the beginning of 2020, you would have made a huge return (especially with Moderna, which grew from around $20 per share to around $400). While those huge jumps in price might be behind us, that doesn’t mean that vaccine developments and possible gains from coronavirus-related treatment are off the table. With booster shots and the unfortunate development of new variants on the table, we still might see some returns on these stocks in the near future.

And even if Pfizer and Moderna don’t grow all that much more due to the pandemic, they’re both still huge players in the biotech game with more products on the way in the future. This could make for a great long-term investment opportunity!

The post Is It Too Late to Invest in Pfizer and Moderna? appeared first on Wall Street Survivor.

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Government

Survey Shows Declining Concerns Among Americans About COVID-19

Survey Shows Declining Concerns Among Americans About COVID-19

A new survey reveals that only 20% of Americans view covid-19 as "a major threat"…

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Survey Shows Declining Concerns Among Americans About COVID-19

A new survey reveals that only 20% of Americans view covid-19 as "a major threat" to the health of the US population - a sharp decline from a high of 67% in July 2020.

(SARMDY/Shutterstock)

What's more, the Pew Research Center survey conducted from Feb. 7 to Feb. 11 showed that just 10% of Americans are concerned that they will  catch the disease and require hospitalization.

"This data represents a low ebb of public concern about the virus that reached its height in the summer and fall of 2020, when as many as two-thirds of Americans viewed COVID-19 as a major threat to public health," reads the report, which was published March 7.

According to the survey, half of the participants understand the significance of researchers and healthcare providers in understanding and treating long COVID - however 27% of participants consider this issue less important, while 22% of Americans are unaware of long COVID.

What's more, while Democrats were far more worried than Republicans in the past, that gap has narrowed significantly.

"In the pandemic’s first year, Democrats were routinely about 40 points more likely than Republicans to view the coronavirus as a major threat to the health of the U.S. population. This gap has waned as overall levels of concern have fallen," reads the report.

More via the Epoch Times;

The survey found that three in ten Democrats under 50 have received an updated COVID-19 vaccine, compared with 66 percent of Democrats ages 65 and older.

Moreover, 66 percent of Democrats ages 65 and older have received the updated COVID-19 vaccine, while only 24 percent of Republicans ages 65 and older have done so.

“This 42-point partisan gap is much wider now than at other points since the start of the outbreak. For instance, in August 2021, 93 percent of older Democrats and 78 percent of older Republicans said they had received all the shots needed to be fully vaccinated (a 15-point gap),” it noted.

COVID-19 No Longer an Emergency

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently issued its updated recommendations for the virus, which no longer require people to stay home for five days after testing positive for COVID-19.

The updated guidance recommends that people who contracted a respiratory virus stay home, and they can resume normal activities when their symptoms improve overall and their fever subsides for 24 hours without medication.

“We still must use the commonsense solutions we know work to protect ourselves and others from serious illness from respiratory viruses, this includes vaccination, treatment, and staying home when we get sick,” CDC director Dr. Mandy Cohen said in a statement.

The CDC said that while the virus remains a threat, it is now less likely to cause severe illness because of widespread immunity and improved tools to prevent and treat the disease.

Importantly, states and countries that have already adjusted recommended isolation times have not seen increased hospitalizations or deaths related to COVID-19,” it stated.

The federal government suspended its free at-home COVID-19 test program on March 8, according to a website set up by the government, following a decrease in COVID-19-related hospitalizations.

According to the CDC, hospitalization rates for COVID-19 and influenza diseases remain “elevated” but are decreasing in some parts of the United States.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/10/2024 - 22:45

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International

Rand Paul Teases Senate GOP Leader Run – Musk Says “I Would Support”

Rand Paul Teases Senate GOP Leader Run – Musk Says "I Would Support"

Republican Kentucky Senator Rand Paul on Friday hinted that he may jump…

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Rand Paul Teases Senate GOP Leader Run - Musk Says "I Would Support"

Republican Kentucky Senator Rand Paul on Friday hinted that he may jump into the race to become the next Senate GOP leader, and Elon Musk was quick to support the idea. Republicans must find a successor for periodically malfunctioning Mitch McConnell, who recently announced he'll step down in November, though intending to keep his Senate seat until his term ends in January 2027, when he'd be within weeks of turning 86. 

So far, the announced field consists of two quintessential establishment types: John Cornyn of Texas and John Thune of South Dakota. While John Barrasso's name had been thrown around as one of "The Three Johns" considered top contenders, the Wyoming senator on Tuesday said he'll instead seek the number two slot as party whip. 

Paul used X to tease his potential bid for the position which -- if the GOP takes back the upper chamber in November -- could graduate from Minority Leader to Majority Leader. He started by telling his 5.1 million followers he'd had lots of people asking him about his interest in running...

...then followed up with a poll in which he predictably annihilated Cornyn and Thune, taking a 96% share as of Friday night, with the other two below 2% each. 

Elon Musk was quick to back the idea of Paul as GOP leader, while daring Cornyn and Thune to follow Paul's lead by throwing their names out for consideration by the Twitter-verse X-verse. 

Paul has been a stalwart opponent of security-state mass surveillance, foreign interventionism -- to include shoveling billions of dollars into the proxy war in Ukraine -- and out-of-control spending in general. He demonstrated the latter passion on the Senate floor this week as he ridiculed the latest kick-the-can spending package:   

In February, Paul used Senate rules to force his colleagues into a grueling Super Bowl weekend of votes, as he worked to derail a $95 billion foreign aid bill. "I think we should stay here as long as it takes,” said Paul. “If it takes a week or a month, I’ll force them to stay here to discuss why they think the border of Ukraine is more important than the US border.”

Don't expect a Majority Leader Paul to ditch the filibuster -- he's been a hardy user of the legislative delay tactic. In 2013, he spoke for 13 hours to fight the nomination of John Brennan as CIA director. In 2015, he orated for 10-and-a-half-hours to oppose extension of the Patriot Act

Rand Paul amid his 10 1/2 hour filibuster in 2015

Among the general public, Paul is probably best known as Capitol Hill's chief tormentor of Dr. Anthony Fauci, who was director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease during the Covid-19 pandemic. Paul says the evidence indicates the virus emerged from China's Wuhan Institute of Virology. He's accused Fauci and other members of the US government public health apparatus of evading questions about their funding of the Chinese lab's "gain of function" research, which takes natural viruses and morphs them into something more dangerous. Paul has pointedly said that Fauci committed perjury in congressional hearings and that he belongs in jail "without question."   

Musk is neither the only nor the first noteworthy figure to back Paul for party leader. Just hours after McConnell announced his upcoming step-down from leadership, independent 2024 presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr voiced his support: 

In a testament to the extent to which the establishment recoils at the libertarian-minded Paul, mainstream media outlets -- which have been quick to report on other developments in the majority leader race -- pretended not to notice that Paul had signaled his interest in the job. More than 24 hours after Paul's test-the-waters tweet-fest began, not a single major outlet had brought it to the attention of their audience. 

That may be his strongest endorsement yet. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/10/2024 - 20:25

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Government

The Great Replacement Loophole: Illegal Immigrants Score 5-Year Work Benefit While “Waiting” For Deporation, Asylum

The Great Replacement Loophole: Illegal Immigrants Score 5-Year Work Benefit While "Waiting" For Deporation, Asylum

Over the past several…

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The Great Replacement Loophole: Illegal Immigrants Score 5-Year Work Benefit While "Waiting" For Deporation, Asylum

Over the past several months we've pointed out that there has  been zero job creation for native-born workers since the summer of 2018...

... and that since Joe Biden was sworn into office, most of the post-pandemic job gains the administration continuously brags about have gone foreign-born (read immigrants, mostly illegal ones) workers.

And while the left might find this data almost as verboten as FBI crime statistics - as it directly supports the so-called "great replacement theory" we're not supposed to discuss - it also coincides with record numbers of illegal crossings into the United States under Biden.

In short, the Biden administration opened the floodgates, 10 million illegal immigrants poured into the country, and most of the post-pandemic "jobs recovery" went to foreign-born workers, of which illegal immigrants represent the largest chunk.

Asylum seekers from Venezuela await work permits on June 28, 2023 (via the Chicago Tribune)

'But Tyler, illegal immigrants can't possibly work in the United States whilst awaiting their asylum hearings,' one might hear from the peanut gallery. On the contrary: ever since Biden reversed a key aspect of Trump's labor policies, all illegal immigrants - even those awaiting deportation proceedings - have been given carte blanche to work while awaiting said proceedings for up to five years...

... something which even Elon Musk was shocked to learn.

Which leads us to another question: recall that the primary concern for the Biden admin for much of 2022 and 2023 was soaring prices, i.e., relentless inflation in general, and rising wages in particular, which in turn prompted even Goldman to admit two years ago that the diabolical wage-price spiral had been unleashed in the US (diabolical, because nothing absent a major economic shock, read recession or depression, can short-circuit it once it is in place).

Well, there is one other thing that can break the wage-price spiral loop: a flood of ultra-cheap illegal immigrant workers. But don't take our word for it: here is Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself during his February 60 Minutes interview:

PELLEY: Why was immigration important?

POWELL: Because, you know, immigrants come in, and they tend to work at a rate that is at or above that for non-immigrants. Immigrants who come to the country tend to be in the workforce at a slightly higher level than native Americans do. But that's largely because of the age difference. They tend to skew younger.

PELLEY: Why is immigration so important to the economy?

POWELL: Well, first of all, immigration policy is not the Fed's job. The immigration policy of the United States is really important and really much under discussion right now, and that's none of our business. We don't set immigration policy. We don't comment on it.

I will say, over time, though, the U.S. economy has benefited from immigration. And, frankly, just in the last, year a big part of the story of the labor market coming back into better balance is immigration returning to levels that were more typical of the pre-pandemic era.

PELLEY: The country needed the workers.

POWELL: It did. And so, that's what's been happening.

Translation: Immigrants work hard, and Americans are lazy. But much more importantly, since illegal immigrants will work for any pay, and since Biden's Department of Homeland Security, via its Citizenship and Immigration Services Agency, has made it so illegal immigrants can work in the US perfectly legally for up to 5 years (if not more), one can argue that the flood of illegals through the southern border has been the primary reason why inflation - or rather mostly wage inflation, that all too critical component of the wage-price spiral  - has moderated in in the past year, when the US labor market suddenly found itself flooded with millions of perfectly eligible workers, who just also happen to be illegal immigrants and thus have zero wage bargaining options.

None of this is to suggest that the relentless flood of immigrants into the US is not also driven by voting and census concerns - something Elon Musk has been pounding the table on in recent weeks, and has gone so far to call it "the biggest corruption of American democracy in the 21st century", but in retrospect, one can also argue that the only modest success the Biden admin has had in the past year - namely bringing inflation down from a torrid 9% annual rate to "only" 3% - has also been due to the millions of illegals he's imported into the country.

We would be remiss if we didn't also note that this so often carries catastrophic short-term consequences for the social fabric of the country (the Laken Riley fiasco being only the latest example), not to mention the far more dire long-term consequences for the future of the US - chief among them the trillions of dollars in debt the US will need to incur to pay for all those new illegal immigrants Democrat voters and low-paid workers. This is on top of the labor revolution that will kick in once AI leads to mass layoffs among high-paying, white-collar jobs, after which all those newly laid off native-born workers hoping to trade down to lower paying (if available) jobs will discover that hardened criminals from Honduras or Guatemala have already taken them, all thanks to Joe Biden.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/10/2024 - 19:15

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