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Inching closer to global agreement on taxing the sustainable digital economy

The G20, OECD and other international agencies are set to implement a multilateral approach to tax policy to achieve sustainability goals.
In her monthly Expert Take column, Selva Ozelli, an international tax attorney and CPA, covers..

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The G20, OECD and other international agencies are set to implement a multilateral approach to tax policy to achieve sustainability goals.

In her monthly Expert Take column, Selva Ozelli, an international tax attorney and CPA, covers the intersection between emerging technologies and sustainability, and provides the latest developments around taxes, AML/CFT regulations and legal issues affecting crypto and blockchain.

Since 2013, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD, has been discussing the base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS) risks of large multinational enterprises (MNEs) — risks arising from the digitalization of the global economy.

BEPS 2.0 reports came out in 2018 and 2019, aiming to ensure a fairer distribution of the rights to tax the profits of large MNEs, set at a global minimum tax rate, in order to build consensus and prevent the proliferation of unilateral measures such as digital service taxes that could escalate to trade wars. Around 40 countries — including G20 countries like France, India, Italy, Turkey and the United Kingdom — have introduced or announced some unilateral measures to undermine tax certainty, hinder investment and drive up compliance and administration costs.

In a June meeting, the G7 countries agreed to the OECD BEPS 2.0 framework, mandating that MNEs pay their fair share of tax in the countries in which they operate, at a global minimum rate of at least 15%. They also agreed to follow the U.K.’s lead to make climate reporting mandatory to ensure markets play their part in the transition to net zero.

Related: Pronouncements from the G7 allow green fintech to flourish

On July 1, ahead of the G20 High Level Tax Symposium on Tax Policy and Climate Change held last month, the OECD issued a statement that it was seeking to finalize the technical details of the BEPS 2.0 report by October, with the aim of implementing them by 2023.

As of August, 133 member jurisdictions out of 139 have agreed to the OECD’s statement, the Statement on a Two–Pillar Solution to Address the Tax Challenges Arising from the Digitalisation of the Economy. Furthermore, finance ministers of G20 countries also reaffirmed that a multilateral approach to tax policy in order to reach the common goal of net-zero emissions by mid-century is key to successfully tackling climate change.

What are the new international tax rules for the global digital economy?

The globalization and digitalization of the economy, which has accelerated during the COVID-19 pandemic, have allowed MNEs to earn significant income in market jurisdictions without paying taxes in said jurisdictions. This is due to nexus rules requiring that companies have a physical presence in a nation for it to be granted taxing rights. This has made it easier for MNEs to shift profits to low-tax jurisdictions.

The BEPS 2.0 framework represents the most substantial renovation of the international tax rules in almost a century and consists of two parts/pillars.

Pillar One

Pillar One is focused on MNEs’ profit allocation and nexus. MNE groups with global turnover above 20 billion euros ($23.5 billion) and profitability above 10% (profit before tax) will pay taxes in the countries where they have users and customers, even if they have no commercial/physical presence. Pillar One’s extensive scope — which is based on turnover, without any distinction on activities — draws from the United States’ April “Made in America Tax Plan” proposal.

Related: Biden’s capital gains tax plan to pull crypto down to earth from the moon?

Pillar One is grouped into two components: 1) a new taxing right for market jurisdictions (where customers are based) over a share of residual profit calculated at an MNE group level (“Amount A”) and 2) a fixed return for certain baseline routine marketing and distribution activities (“Amount B”).

The new allocation rules partially set aside the arm’s length principle but do not abandon transfer pricing rules completely. The new system builds on transfer pricing rules, with “Amount A” applying to a percent of residual profits (20% to 30% to avoid double taxation.)

Pillar Two

Pillar Two is focused on setting a global minimum tax rate that is at least 15% and targets large MNE groups with global turnover above 750 million euros ($883 million).

Under Pillar Two, if the jurisdictional effective tax rate of an MNE group is below the globally set minimum tax rate of 15%, its parent or subsidiary companies will be required to pay top-up tax in the jurisdictions in which they’re located in order to meet the shortfall.

Related: The global corporate tax rate: Crypto savior or killer?

U.S. digital tax and regulatory developments

To aid the BEPS 2.0 negotiations, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative launched “Section 301” investigations against Austria, India, Italy, Spain, Turkey and the United Kingdom for their digital service taxes in the same fashion it did for France’s DST in January. It found the measures inconsistent with prevailing international tax and trade principles, leading the U.S. to immediately suspend billions of dollars in retaliatory tariffs in June. As Nick Clegg, head of global public policy and communications at Facebook, noted:

“One of my teams has been actively providing technical inputs to the OECD Secretariat for a good two years now to help them kind of work out how to do this.”

Facebook is expected to launch a stablecoin called Diem (formerly Libra) this year. The Federal Reserve is considering developing a digital dollar to enable faster payments among banks, consumers and businesses and has broadened its research to include stablecoins and whether they can be effectively regulated.

Related: DoJ’s crypto czar joins FinCEN in brand-new role: Why it matters

Gary Gensler, chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, said he believes the agency needs more authority from Congress — and more funding — to regulate the cryptocurrency market and provide protection for investors, with a “robust” regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in the U.S., especially in emerging decentralized finance (DeFi) markets such as lending.

This funding can come from the infrastructure bill put forth by the administration of President Joe Biden, which was approved by the U.S. Senate, as it imposes tax-reporting requirements for cryptocurrency brokers that are similar to the way stockbrokers report their customers’ securities sales to the Internal Revenue Service. The provision defines brokers broadly, putting new tax-reporting obligations on crypto “miners” — users who lend computing power to verify other users’ transactions and receive coins in exchange.

Related: Senate infrastructure bill isn’t perfect, but could the intention be right?

William Quigley — a cryptocurrency investor, co-founder of NFT blockchain platform WAX and co-founder of the first fiat-backed stablecoin Tether (USDT) — told me: “You’ve got important US federal agencies each categorizing cryptocurrencies differently. The IRS says they're property, the SEC calls them securities, the CFTC thinks they're commodities and the US Treasury considers them money.” He also added:

“This confusion highlights the need for the US Congress to step in and develop a cryptocurrency policy framework. A framework that will benefit consumers and entrepreneurs alike."

G20 and the tax symposium

The finance ministers reaffirmed that reaching the common goal of net-zero emissions by mid-century is a priority and that tax policy can help achieve this objective in an effective, inclusive manner. They recognized that countries may rely on a mix of policy instruments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and may achieve their climate objectives with different speeds and trajectories, considering national specificities, differing degrees of technological development, and different availability of resources needed to finance the green transition. At the same time, the finance ministers acknowledged the importance of enhanced international cooperation to avoid potential spillovers stemming from unilateral approaches.

In two sessions — one moderated by the IMF deputy managing director and the other by the OECD secretary-general — the finance ministers presented their views, experiences and proposals on how to use fiscal tools to serve ambitious climate change mitigation strategies. They also discussed ways to limit the impact of climate policies on vulnerable households and tackle carbon leakage in order to avoid adverse effects on international trade and growth agendas.

The Italian presidency has asked the IMF and the OECD to prepare a report on this subject ahead of the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting in October. Building on the outcome of the symposium, the report will take stock of countries’ mitigation and adaptation policy strategies.

Daniele Franco, Italy’s minister of economy and finance, stressed that a multilateral approach to tax policy and climate change is key to successfully addressing this truly global challenge. All participants agreed that this dialogue should be continued and conducted at both the political level — through consistent engagement of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors — and at the technical level, possibly through a G20 study group.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Selva Ozelli, Esq., CPA, is an international tax attorney and certified public accountant who frequently writes about tax, legal and accounting issues for Tax Notes, Bloomberg BNA, other publications and the OECD.

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There will soon be one million seats on this popular Amtrak route

“More people are taking the train than ever before,” says Amtrak’s Executive Vice President.

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While the size of the United States makes it hard for it to compete with the inter-city train access available in places like Japan and many European countries, Amtrak trains are a very popular transportation option in certain pockets of the country — so much so that the country’s national railway company is expanding its Northeast Corridor by more than one million seats.

Related: This is what it's like to take a 19-hour train from New York to Chicago

Running from Boston all the way south to Washington, D.C., the route is one of the most popular as it passes through the most densely populated part of the country and serves as a commuter train for those who need to go between East Coast cities such as New York and Philadelphia for business.

Veronika Bondarenko captured this photo of New York’s Moynihan Train Hall. 

Veronika Bondarenko

Amtrak launches new routes, promises travelers ‘additional travel options’

Earlier this month, Amtrak announced that it was adding four additional Northeastern routes to its schedule — two more routes between New York’s Penn Station and Union Station in Washington, D.C. on the weekend, a new early-morning weekday route between New York and Philadelphia’s William H. Gray III 30th Street Station and a weekend route between Philadelphia and Boston’s South Station.

More Travel:

According to Amtrak, these additions will increase Northeast Corridor’s service by 20% on the weekdays and 10% on the weekends for a total of one million additional seats when counted by how many will ride the corridor over the year.

“More people are taking the train than ever before and we’re proud to offer our customers additional travel options when they ride with us on the Northeast Regional,” Amtrak Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer Eliot Hamlisch said in a statement on the new routes. “The Northeast Regional gets you where you want to go comfortably, conveniently and sustainably as you breeze past traffic on I-95 for a more enjoyable travel experience.”

Here are some of the other Amtrak changes you can expect to see

Amtrak also said that, in the 2023 financial year, the Northeast Corridor had nearly 9.2 million riders — 8% more than it had pre-pandemic and a 29% increase from 2022. The higher demand, particularly during both off-peak hours and the time when many business travelers use to get to work, is pushing Amtrak to invest into this corridor in particular.

To reach more customers, Amtrak has also made several changes to both its routes and pricing system. In the fall of 2023, it introduced a type of new “Night Owl Fare” — if traveling during very late or very early hours, one can go between cities like New York and Philadelphia or Philadelphia and Washington. D.C. for $5 to $15.

As travel on the same routes during peak hours can reach as much as $300, this was a deliberate move to reach those who have the flexibility of time and might have otherwise preferred more affordable methods of transportation such as the bus. After seeing strong uptake, Amtrak added this type of fare to more Boston routes.

The largest distances, such as the ones between Boston and New York or New York and Washington, are available at the lowest rate for $20.

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International

The next pandemic? It’s already here for Earth’s wildlife

Bird flu is decimating species already threatened by climate change and habitat loss.

I am a conservation biologist who studies emerging infectious diseases. When people ask me what I think the next pandemic will be I often say that we are in the midst of one – it’s just afflicting a great many species more than ours.

I am referring to the highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI H5N1), otherwise known as bird flu, which has killed millions of birds and unknown numbers of mammals, particularly during the past three years.

This is the strain that emerged in domestic geese in China in 1997 and quickly jumped to humans in south-east Asia with a mortality rate of around 40-50%. My research group encountered the virus when it killed a mammal, an endangered Owston’s palm civet, in a captive breeding programme in Cuc Phuong National Park Vietnam in 2005.

How these animals caught bird flu was never confirmed. Their diet is mainly earthworms, so they had not been infected by eating diseased poultry like many captive tigers in the region.

This discovery prompted us to collate all confirmed reports of fatal infection with bird flu to assess just how broad a threat to wildlife this virus might pose.

This is how a newly discovered virus in Chinese poultry came to threaten so much of the world’s biodiversity.

H5N1 originated on a Chinese poultry farm in 1997. ChameleonsEye/Shutterstock

The first signs

Until December 2005, most confirmed infections had been found in a few zoos and rescue centres in Thailand and Cambodia. Our analysis in 2006 showed that nearly half (48%) of all the different groups of birds (known to taxonomists as “orders”) contained a species in which a fatal infection of bird flu had been reported. These 13 orders comprised 84% of all bird species.

We reasoned 20 years ago that the strains of H5N1 circulating were probably highly pathogenic to all bird orders. We also showed that the list of confirmed infected species included those that were globally threatened and that important habitats, such as Vietnam’s Mekong delta, lay close to reported poultry outbreaks.

Mammals known to be susceptible to bird flu during the early 2000s included primates, rodents, pigs and rabbits. Large carnivores such as Bengal tigers and clouded leopards were reported to have been killed, as well as domestic cats.

Our 2006 paper showed the ease with which this virus crossed species barriers and suggested it might one day produce a pandemic-scale threat to global biodiversity.

Unfortunately, our warnings were correct.

A roving sickness

Two decades on, bird flu is killing species from the high Arctic to mainland Antarctica.

In the past couple of years, bird flu has spread rapidly across Europe and infiltrated North and South America, killing millions of poultry and a variety of bird and mammal species. A recent paper found that 26 countries have reported at least 48 mammal species that have died from the virus since 2020, when the latest increase in reported infections started.

Not even the ocean is safe. Since 2020, 13 species of aquatic mammal have succumbed, including American sea lions, porpoises and dolphins, often dying in their thousands in South America. A wide range of scavenging and predatory mammals that live on land are now also confirmed to be susceptible, including mountain lions, lynx, brown, black and polar bears.

The UK alone has lost over 75% of its great skuas and seen a 25% decline in northern gannets. Recent declines in sandwich terns (35%) and common terns (42%) were also largely driven by the virus.

Scientists haven’t managed to completely sequence the virus in all affected species. Research and continuous surveillance could tell us how adaptable it ultimately becomes, and whether it can jump to even more species. We know it can already infect humans – one or more genetic mutations may make it more infectious.

At the crossroads

Between January 1 2003 and December 21 2023, 882 cases of human infection with the H5N1 virus were reported from 23 countries, of which 461 (52%) were fatal.

Of these fatal cases, more than half were in Vietnam, China, Cambodia and Laos. Poultry-to-human infections were first recorded in Cambodia in December 2003. Intermittent cases were reported until 2014, followed by a gap until 2023, yielding 41 deaths from 64 cases. The subtype of H5N1 virus responsible has been detected in poultry in Cambodia since 2014. In the early 2000s, the H5N1 virus circulating had a high human mortality rate, so it is worrying that we are now starting to see people dying after contact with poultry again.

It’s not just H5 subtypes of bird flu that concern humans. The H10N1 virus was originally isolated from wild birds in South Korea, but has also been reported in samples from China and Mongolia.

Recent research found that these particular virus subtypes may be able to jump to humans after they were found to be pathogenic in laboratory mice and ferrets. The first person who was confirmed to be infected with H10N5 died in China on January 27 2024, but this patient was also suffering from seasonal flu (H3N2). They had been exposed to live poultry which also tested positive for H10N5.

Species already threatened with extinction are among those which have died due to bird flu in the past three years. The first deaths from the virus in mainland Antarctica have just been confirmed in skuas, highlighting a looming threat to penguin colonies whose eggs and chicks skuas prey on. Humboldt penguins have already been killed by the virus in Chile.

A colony of king penguins.
Remote penguin colonies are already threatened by climate change. AndreAnita/Shutterstock

How can we stem this tsunami of H5N1 and other avian influenzas? Completely overhaul poultry production on a global scale. Make farms self-sufficient in rearing eggs and chicks instead of exporting them internationally. The trend towards megafarms containing over a million birds must be stopped in its tracks.

To prevent the worst outcomes for this virus, we must revisit its primary source: the incubator of intensive poultry farms.

Diana Bell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked…

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked by the NY Fed Consumer Survey extended their late 2023 slide, with 3Y inflation expectations in January sliding to a record low 2.4% (from 2.6% in December), even as 1 and 5Y inflation forecasts remained flat, moments ago the NY Fed reported that in February there was a sharp rebound in longer-term inflation expectations, rising to 2.7% from 2.4% at the three-year ahead horizon, and jumping to 2.9% from 2.5% at the five-year ahead horizon, while the 1Y inflation outlook was flat for the 3rd month in a row, stuck at 3.0%. 

The increases in both the three-year ahead and five-year ahead measures were most pronounced for respondents with at most high school degrees (in other words, the "really smart folks" are expecting deflation soon). The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons, while the median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one- and three-year ahead horizons and remained unchanged at the five-year ahead horizon.

Going down the survey, we find that the median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% for gas; decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 6.8% for the cost of medical care (its lowest reading since September 2020); decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% for the cost of a college education; and surprisingly decreased by 0.3 percentage point for rent to 6.1% (its lowest reading since December 2020), and remained flat for food at 4.9%.

We find the rent expectations surprising because it is happening just asking rents are rising across the country.

At the same time as consumers erroneously saw sharply lower rents, median home price growth expectations remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month at 3.0%.

Turning to the labor market, the survey found that the average perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job separations increased, while the perceived likelihood of finding a job (in the event of a job loss) declined. "The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also increased, by 1.8 percentage points to 19.5%."

Mean unemployment expectations - or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now - decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 36.1%, the lowest reading since February 2022. Additionally, the median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth was unchanged at 2.8%, remaining slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 2.9%.

Turning to household finance, we find the following:

  • The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.1%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.9% to 3.3% since January 2023, and remains above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 2.7%.
  • Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%. The increase was driven by respondents with a high school degree or less.
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased to 9.3% from 8.9%.
  • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 26.1%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 30%.
  • Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated somewhat with fewer respondents reporting being better off than a year ago. Year-ahead expectations also deteriorated marginally with a smaller share of respondents expecting to be better off and a slightly larger share of respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now.
  • The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.4 percentage point to 38.9%.
  • At the same time, perceptions and expectations about credit access turned less optimistic: "Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated with a larger share of respondents reporting tighter conditions and a smaller share reporting looser conditions compared to a year ago."

Also, a smaller percentage of consumers, 11.45% vs 12.14% in prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months

Last, and perhaps most humorous, is the now traditional cognitive dissonance one observes with these polls, because at a time when long-term inflation expectations jumped, which clearly suggests that financial conditions will need to be tightened, the number of respondents expecting higher stock prices one year from today jumped to the highest since November 2021... which incidentally is just when the market topped out during the last cycle before suffering a painful bear market.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 12:40

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