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How to protect your crypto in a volatile market: Bitcoin OGs and experts weigh in

Crypto OGs Brock Pierce and Tim Draper and other experts provide essential advice on how to protect your hard-earned stack.
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Crypto OGs Brock Pierce and Tim Draper and other experts provide essential advice on how to protect your hard-earned stack.

Crypto is a volatile place. Money can be as easily lost as made through the ups and downs of Bitcoin and the wider market, and there are massive decisions to make. Should you just hodl invest and do nothing or actively trade the market? How many coins should your portfolio hold? Self-custody or keep your funds on an exchange with pre-determined stop losses?

Basically, how do you protect your stack from the million and one things that can go wrong? We asked Bitcoin OGs and experts in the space for their advice and opinions.

Walk before you can run

When faced with the question of how best to protect your crypto, OG Brock Pierce is circumspect. The former presidential candidate and co-founder of Tether and Block.one points out that not everyone is in the same place.

Early noobs looking to begin their journey might go to Coinbase and purchase their first $20 or $50 worth of crypto, and its not an investment in crypto, but an investment in yourself. However, the moment you have a material investment and that is a different amount for everybody then its important to understand the basics of hodling and investing in crypto,” he says.

Its always better to walk before you can run, to walk in baby steps and dont let FOMO (fear of missing out) cloud your judgment. This is a marathon, a long game, so take you time and be informed.

Self-custody for safety

Pierce repeats the mantra, “Not your keys, not your coins.” This is one of the most widespread pieces of wisdom in the world of crypto, where people are encouraged to take responsibility for holding their own crypto rather than outsourcing it to an exchange that can get hacked.

But there are dangers with this approach, too, and if something goes wrong, there is no centralized bank authority to reset the passwords or refund money lost to scams. Its like holding cash under the mattress the entire responsibility rests with you and is referred to as self-custody in crypto.

Itai Avneri
Itai Avneri, deputy CEO and chief operating officer at INX Limited (Supplied)

Self-custody is the key to safe trading, according to Itai Avneri, deputy CEO and chief operating officer at INX Limited, the first and only fully regulated, end-to-end platform for listing and trading both SEC-registered security tokens and cryptocurrencies.

Self-custody is the key here. Especially when thinking about digital securities and not just crypto. Trading on a centralized exchange that provides the confidence and protection of regulation and, at the same time, trading in a decentralized manner when the customer holds his / her own assets. Generally speaking, your wallet, your keys, your assets. This is the best way to protect yourself from a sudden hold on withdrawals or other events we witnessed in the past year, Avneri says.

But Bitcoin billionaire Tim Draper of Draper VC says that while thats true, institutions arent keeping funds on a Ledger in a drawer.

I no longer believe that my dollars in the bank are very safe. They are subject to political winds and inflation,” he says.

The safest personal money is BOLBitcoin on Ledger. The safest institutional money is BAC Bitcoin at Coinbase, Draper continues.

Tim Draper
Tim Draper, founder of Draper VC, chatting with journalist Jillian Godsil.

Diversification: Dont just buy eggs

Pierce points out that people advanced in sophistication can look at investigating yield farming or decentralized finance. This allows people to not only protect their crypto but also to look at increasing it through earning yields but again, this involves risk.

He emphasizes the importance of investing in your own education and notes the importance of diversification.

Brock Pierce
Brock Pierce, chairman of the Bitcoin Foundation (Supplied)

If you are participating in those markets, then you by necessity take on the counterparty risk associated with those platforms, and how you mitigate those risks is through diversification, but not having all your eggs in one basket. If any one asset fell, it wont wreck (rekt) your entire portfolio.

Diversification in crypto is tricky, as Bitcoin and the rest of the market tend to move up and down at the same time. But Pierce warns against putting too much money in more volatile coins, for example, memecoins, in case of a downturn where the pain will be magnified.

Andrew Latham, a certified financial planner based in Rolesville, North Carolina and the director of content for financial websiteSuperMoney.com, echoes Pierces restraint and suggests looking outside of crypto as well.

The key to surviving market downturns is diversification and a disciplined approach. Dont put all your eggs in one basket. Spreading your investments across various asset classes can help cushion against volatility. Keep a disciplined approach to crypto investing, focusing on long-term goals over short-term market fluctuations.

And while crypto investing is often a little bit too interesting for its good, he says successful investing is often the opposite.

As the old adage goes, ‘Investing should be more like watching paint dry or watching grass grow. If you want excitement, take $800 and go to Las Vegas,’ Latham says.

High-conviction bets

Sometimes, it makes sense to be overweight in a blue chip, market-leading token though, as Warren Buffetts 50% portfolio allocation to Apple shows. There are plenty of Bitcoin-only hodlers, but Lakov Levin, the co-founder of the new DeFi investment platform Locus Finance, leans heavily on Ethereum.

Levin suggests: Ethereum is the blockchain, which is used as the fundament for the financial evolution of the 21st century. It is a hub for hundreds of protocols that build value for its users. Holding Ethereum is similar to holding a fraction of the internet and value it provides to users. It is truly a remarkable financial opportunity.”

Levin notes that Ethereums hodlers can stake their assets and receive 5% APR in ETH itself and points out the “Ethereum blockchain burns fees for each transaction made on the blockchain, which makes Ethereum a deflationary asset.”

I do not think that ever in human history we saw a deflationary asset that generates consistent yield and has potential for such innovation, concludes Levin.

Stop Loss
A stop loss can prevent further losses. (Pexels)

A tool to stop losses

Pierce is sanguine about overall market dumps if you are positioned properly. 

If the market falls by 10%, take the hit using something like a stop loss, and try to recover in the next run.

A stop-loss is a risk management tool that automatically sells a token once it reaches a certain floor predetermined by the user. It is designed to limit losses but can be a blunt tool in the crypto world, where movements of 10% are common and could see all assets dumped as a result.

Lakov Levin
Lakov Levin, a co-founder of Locus Finance (Supplied)

Levin is cautiously bullish on stop losses, which basically allow traders to close a trading position at a specific price.

The effectiveness of any tool lies in the hands of those who use it. The most important thing about ‘stop losses’ is the feeling of control, which protects from the anxiety of being in the market.

One of the scenarios that stop losses is the management of hypotheses on market behavior. When entering a trade, a trader has a hypothesis of the behavior of the market, which leads to opening a trading position.

Stop losses allow you to pick the price where your thesis is rejected by the market and limit your loss, which is a must thing to have for long-term trading. But ‘stop losses’ do not save from cognitive biases, which heavily affect trading. In this case, a trader may re-enter trade a few times, breaking his own rules under the influence of greed or fear. It is important to have discipline to follow your own rules.

One of the rules that I used when trading is when hit by stop loss, I take a break from trading this asset, says Levin.

Pierce is not an active trader and sees himself more as a long-term participant in the market. He appreciates that market volatility is not a negative thing and that tremendous wealth is made in volatile markets the more movement, the more opportunity.

But it’s not for the faint of heart. You know, youre riding a roller coaster ride almost every day, says Pierce.

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Options can protect against extreme volatility

All-time highs and all-time lows. Recent reports in The Wall Street Journal point to SpaceX writing down the value of its Bitcoin holdings by $373 million. It is currently unclear whether SpaceX sold or merely reduced the value of its digital assets in its accounts. This may cause difficulty in the future, as U.S. accounting rules dictate that once written down, the value of Bitcoin on company balance sheets cannot be adjusted upward, even if its price rises.

The subsequent downward movement took many by surprise established investors and newbies alike. What other tools are available to users to protect their crypto? Well, a 50-year-old model created by Nobel-prize-winning professors could be an option.

Options trading gives the trader the right or obligation to buy or sell a specific security on a specific date at a specific price its a contract thats linked to an underlying asset such as a stock or security. Since 1973, options have been priced using the Black-Scholes model originally authored by two university professors. This mathematical equation estimates the theoretical value of assets based on implied volatility, taking into account the impact of time and other risk values. It is to this day regarded as one of the best ways to price an option contract.

Asked if he might consider using a tool like options, Pierce is cagey. He reckons that leverage is the demise of most peoples wealth. Leverage is the use of borrowed funds to increase ones trading position beyond what would be available from one’s cash balance alone.

Be very careful playing with leverage. Its a tool for hedging to try and achieve great gains but can be the thing that creates more problems if you are not a skilled trader.

Pierce has bought into options in the past a few times where he tried to swing for the fences with leveraged option bets.

It’s not worked out well, for me, because one of my problems is I’m so close to the market, that the markets are not as rational.

Pierce quotes the recent SEC/Ripple legal action. He didnt trade on this occasion, but if he had, he would have bet on an altcoin bull run.

It didnt happen. If I had followed my gut, then I would have bought and been wrecked the next day.

As Pierce said, thats why hes not an active trader.

Stop losses and options?

A new protocol called Bumper is launching this month, claiming to provide a safety net for downward volatility. It combines stop losses and options in a way that co-founder Jonathan DeCarteret claims is cheaper and more efficient than both those traditional tools.

Jonathan DeCarteret
Jonathan DeCarteret, CEO of Bumper (Supplied)

Bumpers backtested economic simulations claim a yield improvement of 46.2% over options pricing during the 2022 bear market. This is demonstrated through a historic simulation report audited by Cryptecon and CADlabs.

Decentralised Finance (DeFi) typically has low latency and high frequency of liquidity, which poses certain complexities for the model.

Option desks make great use of pricing risk but have to add their costs on top. Bumper evolves the now half-century-old Black-Scholes equation to leverage all the unique properties of DeFi, such as pooled liquidity, smart contracts and protocol composability. Two years ago, we raised $20 million in funding to create a superior crypto equivalent, says DeCarteret.

Dont fall foul of criminal scams

The membership program Crytolock.ai enables users to save up to 90% of compliance and recovery expenses in case of a crypto breach. Not surprisingly, CEO Roger Ying says to focus on prevention, detection and recovery.

Roger Ying
Roger Ying, CEO of Crytolock.ai (Supplied)

Crypto users need to be educated on ways to prevent, secure and make sure they are not transacting with illicit entities otherwise, they may be implicated in a crypto crime, he says.

Furthermore, there are a growing number of ways to monitor your crypto on the blockchain and be immediately notified of unintended transactions and stop them before they get confirmed. He adds that if you still end up the victim of a hack or rug pull, understanding the necessary processes to recover crypto is very important both in time and expenditure savings.”

Hodling as a safe course

Of course, hodling large-cap cryptocurrencies is probably the safest and easiest way to maintain a position. Pierce recommends using cold storage provided by hardware wallets as a safe way to keep crypto.

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Back in the day when I started, we used paper wallets. Youd have a new device, and youd print out the keys, laminate the paper, and chuck it into a safe.

Sorkin is very direct in his hodling actions:

Buy ETH, stake it in Lido, receive LDO and find ways to stake LDO. Otherwise just buy Bitcoin and forget about it completely until late 2024 when halving of BTC happens.

Latham says the key to hodling is patience and conviction. Invest only in cryptocurrencies that you believe have long-term potential and can withstand market downturns. Regularly review your holdings to ensure they still align with your investment goals. Time in the market does beat timing the market, but that only works when you pick cryptocurrencies that dont flop, so its crucial to vet your investments carefully.

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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