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How a Washington, DC coalition is using place-based cash relief to advance an equitable COVID-19 recovery

How a Washington, DC coalition is using place-based cash relief to advance an equitable COVID-19 recovery

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By Scott Kratz

Placemaking PostcardsToday’s public health and economic crises have brought long-overdue attention to our nation’s deeply engrained challenges of income inequity, structural racism, and a tattered safety net. Moreover, they reveal how these challenges unfold spatially to concentrate in neighborhoods that have continuously wrestled with economic exclusion, disinvestment, and discrimination—creating an urgent need for place-based solutions that provide relief to the most impacted people in the hardest-hit neighborhoods.

Achieving scalable, place-based solutions in these long-excluded neighborhoods—where government distrust runs deep due to generations of state-sanctioned racism and systemic abandonment—requires intimate knowledge of the community and the ability to deliver tangible results to regain trust. Lessons learned from a coalition we formed in one of Washington, D.C.’s most economically excluded and hardest-hit neighborhoods, Ward 8, can provide a model for other cities to deliver results and ensure that people living in disproportionately impacted neighborhoods have the economic resources they need to withstand the pandemic and achieve long-term economic stability.

From placemaking to place-based cash relief

Ward 8 is home to many of the same challenges that communities of color face across the nation. Approximately 90% of its residents are Black, 31% of its residents live in poverty, it is home to the highest concentration of housing-insecure renters in the District, and residents face significant public health disparities due to disinvestment in medical care and food access east of the Anacostia River.

Prior to the pandemic, a coalition of place-based organizations—including the 11th Street Bridge Park, Bread for the City, Far Southeast Family Strengthening Collaborative, and Martha’s Table—were working to tackle these inequities. The 11th Street Bridge Park began as an equitable placemaking project to connect two District neighborhoods divided by decades of disinvestment and economic, racial, and geographic segregation, before evolving into a multifaceted effort to preserve housing affordability, prevent displacement, build community capacity, and connect residents to jobs. This project helped plant the seeds of community engagement to gain residents’ trust and strengthen the collaboration among community-based organizations needed to address residents’ immediate financial concerns while increasing their economic stability and mobility.

In March, our coalition came together to determine how to continue our goals of supporting economic opportunity for Ward 8 families amid the devastation of the COVID-19 pandemic. Each organization has a long history of supporting Ward 8 residents in different ways, including food distribution, education, violence-prevention services, legal aid, and workforce training. The collaboration we fostered and the trust we built with residents prior to the pandemic gave us confidence that if we worked together, we could leverage our individual resources to make a tangible impact.

The result was a new initiative—THRIVE East of the River—in which we provide up to 500 Ward 8 families with immediate access to $5,500 cash, weekly groceries, and monthly dry goods (cleaning supplies, detergent, diapers, toiletries, etc.) as they await the return of a normally functioning labor market. In addition, the initiative connects participants to trained navigators that help them engage with government resources or track down missing stimulus checks. Participants must meet three criteria: 1) they must live in Ward 8; 2) be low-to-moderate income (50% area median income); and 3) have an existing relationship with one of the four nonprofits, so we could identify and recruit them to participate in the initiative. The four nonprofits have been working with these families for some time, so we have earned trust with them, which has been essential to implementing the program.

THRIVE shares the goals of many “universal basic income” pilots being implemented across the country. For now, however, the initiative is limited to five months, and is designed to address immediate economic instability posed by the COVID-19 crisis. To date, we have secured $3.4 million from local foundations, individuals, and corporations, and are well on our way to reach a $4.1 million goal to serve 500 families. By late August, we had dispersed over $1 million to participating families. If we are able to exceed our fundraising target, we will expand the program to additional Ward 8 participants.

The structural barriers of providing cash relief

THRIVE East of the River strives to be a place-based, racially equitable model for rapid emergency response that communities across the nation can adapt to their own contexts. And although we are only a few months into the program, we have learned some important lessons.

The most important lesson so far has been ensuring that cash transfers to families do not endanger existing government benefits such as Medicaid, Social Security Disability Insurance, or affordable housing subsidies. Many of these government programs have strict asset limits which can be as low as $2,000, which acts as a structural barrier and disincentive for residents to build wealth and achieve economic mobility. To address this issue, our cash disbursements are considered non-taxable gifts, and we connect participants with professional benefits attorneys to identify potential risks and provide counseling. For instance, food assistance programs such as SNAP or WIC can be restarted fairly easily if lost, but Social Security Disability Insurance can be very challenging to restart if kicked out of the program.

We are learning many other lessons along the way, which we will embed into an Urban Institute-led evaluation designed to document the effectiveness of the initiative, provide real-time data to inform ongoing program design and management, and formalize a model that can be replicated by other municipalities. Importantly, we will be training Ward 8 residents to assist with the evaluation as paid researchers, in order to ensure their perspectives are centered in any resulting model.

Trusting residents—and each other—to achieve justice

Early on in developing the THRIVE program, it became clear that each of our organizations must work from the same approach: one rooted in justice and racial equity, and dedicated to increasing the long-term financial stability of Ward 8 families. Over a series of virtual sessions, the directors of each nonprofit came together to create four shared values:

  • We value the power of our residents to make their own decisions
  • We treat our community with respect
  • We will always act with integrity
  • We believe in a racially and economically equitable community

These values have been critical to implementing THRIVE. For instance, when thinking about how to best provide funds to families, we took our first value—trusting residents to make their own decision—to mean that participants should be empowered to choose how they receive their relief. They can select to have the $5,500 wired to their bank account upfront or in monthly installments over six months, or they have the choice to receive funds on a prepaid debit card. Importantly, these funds are provided with absolutely no strings attached, as we believe that participating families know best where to allocate the money, whether for rent, food, school supplies, or assisting family members.

Finally, it’s been important to build a trusting partnership between our place-based organizations. For the last several months, we have had weekly virtual meetings to address issues that arise, share successful solutions, and build a sense of camaraderie and shared commitment to uplifting Ward 8 families. These conversations are already leading to new ideas for further collaboration.

By working closely with each other and with the community we are serving, we can ensure that residents don’t just survive this crisis, but thrive.

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked…

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked by the NY Fed Consumer Survey extended their late 2023 slide, with 3Y inflation expectations in January sliding to a record low 2.4% (from 2.6% in December), even as 1 and 5Y inflation forecasts remained flat, moments ago the NY Fed reported that in February there was a sharp rebound in longer-term inflation expectations, rising to 2.7% from 2.4% at the three-year ahead horizon, and jumping to 2.9% from 2.5% at the five-year ahead horizon, while the 1Y inflation outlook was flat for the 3rd month in a row, stuck at 3.0%. 

The increases in both the three-year ahead and five-year ahead measures were most pronounced for respondents with at most high school degrees (in other words, the "really smart folks" are expecting deflation soon). The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons, while the median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one- and three-year ahead horizons and remained unchanged at the five-year ahead horizon.

Going down the survey, we find that the median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% for gas; decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 6.8% for the cost of medical care (its lowest reading since September 2020); decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% for the cost of a college education; and surprisingly decreased by 0.3 percentage point for rent to 6.1% (its lowest reading since December 2020), and remained flat for food at 4.9%.

We find the rent expectations surprising because it is happening just asking rents are rising across the country.

At the same time as consumers erroneously saw sharply lower rents, median home price growth expectations remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month at 3.0%.

Turning to the labor market, the survey found that the average perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job separations increased, while the perceived likelihood of finding a job (in the event of a job loss) declined. "The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also increased, by 1.8 percentage points to 19.5%."

Mean unemployment expectations - or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now - decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 36.1%, the lowest reading since February 2022. Additionally, the median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth was unchanged at 2.8%, remaining slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 2.9%.

Turning to household finance, we find the following:

  • The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.1%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.9% to 3.3% since January 2023, and remains above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 2.7%.
  • Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%. The increase was driven by respondents with a high school degree or less.
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased to 9.3% from 8.9%.
  • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 26.1%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 30%.
  • Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated somewhat with fewer respondents reporting being better off than a year ago. Year-ahead expectations also deteriorated marginally with a smaller share of respondents expecting to be better off and a slightly larger share of respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now.
  • The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.4 percentage point to 38.9%.
  • At the same time, perceptions and expectations about credit access turned less optimistic: "Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated with a larger share of respondents reporting tighter conditions and a smaller share reporting looser conditions compared to a year ago."

Also, a smaller percentage of consumers, 11.45% vs 12.14% in prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months

Last, and perhaps most humorous, is the now traditional cognitive dissonance one observes with these polls, because at a time when long-term inflation expectations jumped, which clearly suggests that financial conditions will need to be tightened, the number of respondents expecting higher stock prices one year from today jumped to the highest since November 2021... which incidentally is just when the market topped out during the last cycle before suffering a painful bear market.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 12:40

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International

This is the biggest money mistake you’re making during travel

A retail expert talks of some common money mistakes travelers make on their trips.

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Travel is expensive. Despite the explosion of travel demand in the two years since the world opened up from the pandemic, survey after survey shows that financial reasons are the biggest factor keeping some from taking their desired trips.

Airfare, accommodation as well as food and entertainment during the trip have all outpaced inflation over the last four years.

Related: This is why we're still spending an insane amount of money on travel

But while there are multiple tricks and “travel hacks” for finding cheaper plane tickets and accommodation, the biggest financial mistake that leads to blown travel budgets is much smaller and more insidious.

A traveler watches a plane takeoff at an airport gate.

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This is what you should (and shouldn’t) spend your money on while abroad

“When it comes to traveling, it's hard to resist buying items so you can have a piece of that memory at home,” Kristen Gall, a retail expert who heads the financial planning section at points-back platform Rakuten, told Travel + Leisure in an interview. “However, it's important to remember that you don't need every souvenir that catches your eye.”

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According to Gall, souvenirs not only have a tendency to add up in price but also weight which can in turn require one to pay for extra weight or even another suitcase at the airport — over the last two months, airlines like Delta  (DAL) , American Airlines  (AAL)  and JetBlue Airways  (JBLU)  have all followed each other in increasing baggage prices to in some cases as much as $60 for a first bag and $100 for a second one.

While such extras may not seem like a lot compared to the thousands one might have spent on the hotel and ticket, they all have what is sometimes known as a “coffee” or “takeout effect” in which small expenses can lead one to overspend by a large amount.

‘Save up for one special thing rather than a bunch of trinkets…’

“When traveling abroad, I recommend only purchasing items that you can't get back at home, or that are small enough to not impact your luggage weight,” Gall said. “If you’re set on bringing home a souvenir, save up for one special thing, rather than wasting your money on a bunch of trinkets you may not think twice about once you return home.”

Along with the immediate costs, there is also the risk of purchasing things that go to waste when returning home from an international vacation. Alcohol is subject to airlines’ liquid rules while certain types of foods, particularly meat and other animal products, can be confiscated by customs. 

While one incident of losing an expensive bottle of liquor or cheese brought back from a country like France will often make travelers forever careful, those who travel internationally less frequently will often be unaware of specific rules and be forced to part with something they spent money on at the airport.

“It's important to keep in mind that you're going to have to travel back with everything you purchased,” Gall continued. “[…] Be careful when buying food or wine, as it may not make it through customs. Foods like chocolate are typically fine, but items like meat and produce are likely prohibited to come back into the country.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Spread & Containment

A major cruise line is testing a monthly subscription service

The Cruise Scarlet Summer Season Pass was designed with remote workers in mind.

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While going on a cruise once meant disconnecting from the world when between ports because any WiFi available aboard was glitchy and expensive, advances in technology over the last decade have enabled millions to not only stay in touch with home but even work remotely.

With such remote workers and digital nomads in mind, Virgin Voyages has designed a monthly pass that gives those who want to work from the seas a WFH setup on its Scarlet Lady ship — while the latter acronym usually means "work from home," the cruise line is advertising as "work from the helm.”

Related: Royal Caribbean shares a warning with passengers

"Inspired by Richard Branson's belief and track record that brilliant work is best paired with a hearty dose of fun, we're welcoming Sailors on board Scarlet Lady for a full month to help them achieve that perfect work-life balance," Virgin Voyages said in announcing its new promotion. "Take a vacation away from your monotonous work-from-home set up (sorry, but…not sorry) and start taking calls from your private balcony overlooking the Mediterranean sea."

A man looks through his phone while sitting in a hot tub on a cruise ship.

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This is how much it'll cost you to work from a cruise ship for a month

While the single most important feature for successful work at sea — WiFi — is already available for free on Virgin cruises, the new Scarlet Summer Season Pass includes a faster connection, a $10 daily coffee credit, access to a private rooftop, and other member-only areas as well as wash and fold laundry service that Virgin advertises as a perk that will allow one to concentrate on work

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The pass starts at $9,990 for a two-guest cabin and is available for four monthlong cruises departing in June, July, August, and September — each departs from ports such as Barcelona, Marseille, and Palma de Mallorca and spends four weeks touring around the Mediterranean.

Longer cruises are becoming more common, here's why

The new pass is essentially a version of an upgraded cruise package with additional perks but is specifically tailored to those who plan on working from the ship as an opportunity to market to them.

"Stay connected to your work with the fastest at-sea internet in the biz when you want and log-off to let the exquisite landscape of the Mediterranean inspire you when you need," reads the promotional material for the pass.

Amid the rise of remote work post-pandemic, cruise lines have been seeing growing interest in longer journeys in which many of the passengers not just vacation in the traditional sense but work from a mobile office.

In 2023, Turkish cruise line operator Miray even started selling cabins on a three-year tour around the world but the endeavor hit the rocks after one of the engineers declared the MV Gemini ship the company planned to use for the journey "unseaworthy" and the cruise ship line dealt with a PR scandal that ultimately sank the project before it could take off.

While three years at sea would have set a record as the longest cruise journey on the market, companies such as Royal Caribbean  (RCL) (both with its namesake brand and its Celebrity Cruises line) have been offering increasingly long cruises that serve as many people’s temporary homes and cross through multiple continents.

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