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HOME SALES, SELLER PROFITS DIP ACROSS U.S. IN FIRST QUARTER OF 2022 AS PRICE INCREASES SLOW

HOME SALES, SELLER PROFITS DIP ACROSS U.S. IN FIRST QUARTER OF 2022 AS PRICE INCREASES SLOW
PR Newswire
IRVINE, Calif., April 28, 2022

Returns Drop for First Time in Over Two Years and Decline at Fastest Pace in 10 Years; Median U.S. Home Price Up …

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HOME SALES, SELLER PROFITS DIP ACROSS U.S. IN FIRST QUARTER OF 2022 AS PRICE INCREASES SLOW

PR Newswire

IRVINE, Calif., April 28, 2022

Returns Drop for First Time in Over Two Years and Decline at Fastest Pace in 10 Years; Median U.S. Home Price Up Just 2 Percent Quarterly, to New High of $320,500

 IRVINE, Calif., April 28, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- ATTOM, a leading curator of real estate data nationwide for land and property data, today released its first-quarter 2022 U.S. Home Sales Report, which shows that profit margins on median-priced single-family home sales across the United States dipped to 47.2 percent – the first quarterly decline since late 2019 and the largest in a decade.

In a sign that the nationwide housing-market boom may be slowing, the latest profit margin was down from 51.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021. While profit margins often decrease during the relatively slow Winter home-buying season, the latest dip of more than four percentage points marked the first quarterly decline since the fourth quarter of 2019 and the largest since the first quarter of 2011.

The report reveals that the typical return on investment remained historically high, easily topping the 37.5 percent level recorded in the first quarter of 2021 and almost 20 points above the 29.4 percent figure from the first quarter of 2019.

Gross profits, while also near record highs, followed a similar pattern in the first quarter of 2022. The typical single-family home sale across the country generated a gross first-quarter profit of $103,000, down from $107,187 in the fourth quarter of last year, although still well above $75,001 a year earlier.

"Home prices simply can't continue to go up as rapidly as they have for the past few years," said Rick Sharga, executive vice president of market intelligence for ATTOM. "The combination of higher prices, rising mortgage rates, and the highest rates of inflation in 40 years may be pricing some prospective buyers out of the market, which means we may begin to see lower sales numbers. Ultimately, as affordability worsens, price appreciation should slow down, and we may even see modest price corrections in some markets."

The lower gross profits came as the national median home price increased just 1.7 percent, from $315,000 in the fourth quarter of 2021 to $320,500 in the first quarter of this year. That marked the ninth straight quarterly record and was up 16.5 percent from the first quarter of 2021. But the modest quarterly gain fell below price spikes that first-quarter sellers commonly were paying when they originally bought their homes, which led to the decline in profits.

Home sales also lagged behind the numbers from the first quarter of 2021, with sales falling from 1.2 million to 1.1 million. These sales, pricing. and profit trends point to the possibility of a calmer period in a housing market that has largely roared ahead over the past two years, both in spite of and because of the ongoing economic threat posed by Coronavirus pandemic that hit early in 2020.

A surge of buyers largely unscathed financially by the pandemic has flooded the market over that period, chasing a historically limited supply of homes for sale and driving up prices. That happened amid a period of rock-bottom mortgage rates that dipped below 3 percent for a 30-year fixed-rate loan, and a desire of many households to trade congested virus-prone parts of the country for the relative safety of a house and yard along with larger spaces for developing work-at-home lifestyles.

But even as employment has grown over the past year, interest rates are rising, which has cut into what buyers can afford. The nation's inflation rate, meanwhile, is at a 40-year high, generating further economic uncertainty that could stifle home-price increases.

Profit margins decline quarterly in over 40 percent of metro areas around the U.S.
Typical profit margins – the percent change between median purchase and resale prices - fell from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022 in 71 (42 percent) of the 170 metro areas around the U.S. with sufficient data to analyze. That trend emerged even as investment returns remained up annually in 152 (89 percent) of those metros. Metro areas were included if they had at least 1,000 single-family home sales in the first quarter of 2022 and a population of at least 200,000.

The biggest quarterly decreases in profit margins came in the metro areas of Santa Barbara, CA (margin down from 72.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 to 45.8 percent in the first quarter of 2022); Boise, ID (down from 110.4 percent to 88.8 percent); Brownsville, TX (down from 54.3 percent to 38.1 percent); St. Louis, MO (down from 37.6 percent to 23.9 percent) and Des Moines, IA (down from 48.1 percent to 35.2 percent).

Aside from St. Louis, the biggest quarterly profit-margin decreases in metro areas with a population of at least 1 million in the first quarter of 2022 were in Raleigh, NC (margin down from 53.1 percent to 40.7 percent); Sacramento, CA (down from 63.9 percent to 52.1 percent); Minneapolis, MN (down from 40 percent to 32 percent) and Atlanta, GA (down from 38.5 percent to 31 percent).

Profit margins increased quarterly in 99 of the 170 metro areas analyzed (58 percent). The biggest quarterly increases were in Kingsport, TN (margin up from 51.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 to 71.1 percent in the first quarter of 2022); Rochester, NY (up from 57.1 percent to 76.3 percent); Lake Havasu City, AZ (up from 58.2 percent to 75.2 percent); Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL (up from 64.2 percent to 80.9 percent) and Toledo, OH (up from 39.8 percent to 53.3 percent).

Aside from Rochester, the largest quarterly increases in profit margins among metro areas with a population of at least 1 million came in Honolulu, HI (up from 34.8 percent to 47.6 percent); Richmond, VA (up from 48.2 percent to 60 percent); Oklahoma City, OK (up from 30 percent to 38.6 percent) and New Orleans, LA (up from 27.6 to 34.4 percent).

Largest profit margins again in West; smallest in South and Midwest
The West continued to have the largest profit margins on typical single-family home sales around the country, with 13 of the top 25 returns on investment in the first quarter of 2022 from among the 170 metropolitan areas with enough data to analyze. The highest profit margins were in Hilo, HI (96.4 percent return); Scranton, PA (91.2 percent); Boise, ID (88.8 percent); San Jose, CA (86.1 percent) and Spokane, WA (85 percent).

Twenty-one of the 25 smallest margins were in the South and Midwest regions of the country. The lowest were in Lafayette, LA (16.6 percent); Shreveport, LA (17.1 percent); Columbus, GA (19.2 percent); Little Rock, AR (21.3 percent) and Lakeland, FL (22.9 percent).

Prices up quarterly in just half the nation
Median home prices in the first quarter of 2022 exceeded values from the prior quarter in only 89 (52 percent) of the 170 metropolitan statistical areas with enough data to analyze, even though they remained up annually in 165 of those metros (97 percent). Nationally, the median price of $320,500 in the first quarter was up from $315,000 in the fourth quarter of 2021 and $275,000 in the first quarter of last year.

The biggest quarterly increases in median home prices during the first quarter of 2022 were in Honolulu, HI (up 7.9 percent); Port St. Lucie, FL (up 7.7 percent); Lakeland, FL (up 7.6 percent); Austin, TX (up 7.6 percent) and Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL (up 7.5 percent).

Aside from Honolulu and Austin, the largest quarterly increases in metro areas with a population of at least 1 million in the first quarter of 2022 were in Atlanta, GA (up 6.5 percent); Las Vegas, NV (up 6.4 percent) and San Diego, CA (up 6.4 percent).

Home prices in the first quarter of 2022 hit or tied all-time highs in 47 percent of the metro areas in the report, including New York, NY; Los Angeles, CA; Dallas, TX; Houston, TX, and Miami, FL.

The largest quarterly decreases in median prices during the first quarter of 2022 were in Macon, GA (down 15.4 percent); Kalamazoo, MI (down 10.9 percent); Detroit, MI (down 10 percent); York, PA (down 9.5 percent) and Des Moines, IA (down 9.3 percent).

Aside from Detroit, the largest quarterly decreases in metro areas with a population of at least 1 million in the first quarter of 2022 were in Rochester, NY (down 9.1 percent); Buffalo, NY (down 7.5 percent); Indianapolis, IN (down 6.6 percent) and Pittsburgh, PA (down 6.1 percent).

Historical Median Home Sales Prices 

Homeownership tenure drops again, to 11-year low
Homeowners who sold in the first quarter of 2022 had owned their homes an average of 5.72 years, down from 6.12 years in the fourth quarter of 2021 and down by more than a year from 6.82 years in the first quarter of 2021. The latest figure marked the shortest average time between purchase and resale since the second quarter of 2011.

Tenure decreased from the first quarter of 2021 to the same period this year in 94 percent of metro areas with sufficient data. They were led by Lakeland, FL (tenure down 82 percent); Salem, OR (down 55 percent); Cleveland, OH (down 47 percent); Las Vegas, NV (down 45 percent) and Provo, UT (down 40 percent).

"Existing home sales typically account for 80-90 percent of all home sales, and increased homeownership tenure over the past decade has had an impact on the inventory of homes available for sale," Sharga noted. "If we continue to see a reversal of that trend, it could bring desperately needed supply back to the market, which would help stabilize prices."

Eight of the 10 longest average tenures among sellers in the first quarter of 2022 were in the Northeast or West regions. They were led by Honolulu, HI (8.54 years); Bellingham, WA (8.31 years); Manchester, NH (7.79 years); Hilo, HI (7.65 years) and New Haven, CT (7.6 years).

Average U.S. Homeownership Tenure

The smallest average tenures among first-quarter sellers were in Lakeland, FL (1.28 years); Memphis, TN (3.45 years); Tucson, AZ (3.59 years); Cleveland, OH (4.08 years) and Provo, UT (4.24 years).

Lender-owned foreclosure sales remain at lowest point this century
Home sales following foreclosures by banks and other lenders represented just 1.2 percent of all U.S. single-family home sales in the first quarter of 2022. That was at or below the smallest portion since at least the first quarter of 2000.

The latest portion of REO sales matched the 1.2 percent figure from the fourth quarter of 2021 and was down from 2.1 percent in the first quarter of last year. REO sales represented only one of every 87 sales in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the peak this century of one in three in first quarter of 2009.

Among metropolitan statistical areas with a population of at least 200,000 and sufficient data, those areas where so-called REO sales represented the largest portion of all sales in the first quarter of 2022 included Davenport, IA (4.9 percent); St. Louis, MO (4.2 percent); Flint, MI (3.3 percent); Hartford, CT (3.1 percent) and New Haven, CT (3.1 percent).

Cash sales at seven-year high
Nationwide, all-cash purchases accounted for 34.2 percent of all single-family home sales in the first quarter of 2022, the highest level since the first quarter of 2015. The first-quarter 2022 number was up from 32 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 and from 30.3 percent in the first quarter of last year.

Among metropolitan statistical areas with a population of at least 200,000 and sufficient cash-sales data, those where cash sales represented the largest share all transactions in the first quarter of 2022 included Flint, MI (61.8 percent of all sales); Detroit, MI (61.5 percent); Utica, NY (54.8 percent); Naples, FL (54.4 percent) and Ann Arbor, MI (53 percent).

Those where cash sales represented the smallest share of all transactions in the first quarter of 2022 included Kennewick, WA (17.2 percent of all sales); Augusta, GA (17.9 percent); Lincoln, NE (18.1 percent); Washington, DC (19.4 percent) and San Jose, CA (19.4 percent).

Institutional investment down by more than half
Institutional investors nationwide accounted for just 4.1 percent, or one of every 24 all single-family home purchases in the first quarter of 2022 – less than half the 9.1 percent level in the fourth quarter of 2021. The latest figure also was down from 5.4 percent in the first quarter of 2021.

"For those people who still believe the theory that institutional investors are buying up all the available inventory, the numbers in our Q1 2022 report offer a pretty strong rebuttal," Sharga added. "It's also interesting that cash sales – often attributed to institutional investors – continued to increase even as investor activity diminished."

Among states with enough data to analyze, those with the largest percentages of sales to institutional investors in the first quarter of 2022 were Arizona (10.7 percent of all sales), Georgia (9.3 percent), North Carolina (8.7 percent), Nevada (8.4 percent) and Texas (6.1 percent).

States with the smallest levels of sales to institutional investors in the first quarter of 2022 included Louisiana (0.5 percent), Connecticut (0.5 percent), Hawaii (0.6 percent), New York (0.7 percent) and Massachusetts (0.7 percent).

Historical Home Sales by Type

FHA-financed purchases at lowest level in more than 14 years
Nationwide, buyers using Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans comprised only 7.3 percent of all single-family home purchases in the first quarter of 2022 (one of every 14), the lowest portion since the first quarter of 2008. The latest figure was down from 8.2 percent in the previous quarter and from 9.2 percent a year earlier.

Among metropolitan statistical areas with a population of at least 200,000 and sufficient FHA-buyer data, those with the highest levels of FHA buyers in the first quarter of 2022 included Visalia. CA (17.7 percent); Bakersfield, CA (16.7 percent); Shreveport, LA (16.3 percent); Mobile, AL (15.9 percent) and Yuma, A (15.7 percent).

Report methodology
The ATTOM U.S. Home Sales Report provides percentages of REO sales and all sales that are sold to institutional investors and cash buyers, at the state and metropolitan statistical area. Data is also available at the county and zip code level upon request. The data is derived from recorded sales deeds, foreclosure filings and loan data. Statistics for previous quarters are revised when each new report is issued as more deed data becomes available.

Definitions
All-cash purchase: sale where no loan is recorded at the time of sale and where ATTOM has coverage of loan data.

Homeownership tenure: for a given market and given quarter, the average time between the most recent sale date and the previous sale date, expressed in years.

Home seller price gains: the difference between the median sales price of homes in a given market in a given quarter and the median sales price of the previous sale of those same homes, expressed both in a dollar amount and as a percentage of the previous median sales price.
Institutional investor purchases: residential property sales to non-lending entities that purchased at least 10 properties in a calendar year.
REO sale: a sale of a property that occurs while the property is actively bank owned (REO).

About ATTOM
ATTOM provides premium property data to power products that improve transparency, innovation, efficiency and disruption in a data-driven economy. ATTOM multi-sources property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard, and neighborhood data for more than 155 million U.S. residential and commercial properties covering 99 percent of the nation's population. A rigorous data management process involving more than 20 steps validates, standardizes, and enhances the real estate data collected by ATTOM, assigning each property record with a persistent, unique ID — the ATTOM ID. The 20TB ATTOM Data Warehouse fuels innovation in many industries including mortgage, real estate, insurance, marketing, government and more through flexible data delivery solutions that include bulk file licenses, property data APIs, real estate market trends, property reports and more. Also, introducing our newest innovative solution, that offers immediate access and streamlines data management – ATTOM Cloud.

Media Contact:
Christine Stricker
949.748.8428
christine.stricker@attomdata.com 

Data and Report Licensing:
949.502.8313
datareports@attomdata.com

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Government

Mathematicians use AI to identify emerging COVID-19 variants

Scientists at The Universities of Manchester and Oxford have developed an AI framework that can identify and track new and concerning COVID-19 variants…

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March 11, 2024

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Scientists at The Universities of Manchester and Oxford have developed an AI framework that can identify and track new and concerning COVID-19 variants and could help with other infections in the future.

Credit: source: https://phil.cdc.gov/Details.aspx?pid=23312

Scientists at The Universities of Manchester and Oxford have developed an AI framework that can identify and track new and concerning COVID-19 variants and could help with other infections in the future.

The framework combines dimension reduction techniques and a new explainable clustering algorithm called CLASSIX, developed by mathematicians at The University of Manchester. This enables the quick identification of groups of viral genomes that might present a risk in the future from huge volumes of data.

The study, presented this week in the journal PNAS, could support traditional methods of tracking viral evolution, such as phylogenetic analysis, which currently require extensive manual curation.

Roberto Cahuantzi, a researcher at The University of Manchester and first and corresponding author of the paper, said: “Since the emergence of COVID-19, we have seen multiple waves of new variants, heightened transmissibility, evasion of immune responses, and increased severity of illness.

“Scientists are now intensifying efforts to pinpoint these worrying new variants, such as alpha, delta and omicron, at the earliest stages of their emergence. If we can find a way to do this quickly and efficiently, it will enable us to be more proactive in our response, such as tailored vaccine development and may even enable us to eliminate the variants before they become established.”

Like many other RNA viruses, COVID-19 has a high mutation rate and short time between generations meaning it evolves extremely rapidly. This means identifying new strains that are likely to be problematic in the future requires considerable effort.

Currently, there are almost 16 million sequences available on the GISAID database (the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data), which provides access to genomic data of influenza viruses.

Mapping the evolution and history of all COVID-19 genomes from this data is currently done using extremely large amounts of computer and human time.

The described method allows automation of such tasks. The researchers processed 5.7 million high-coverage sequences in only one to two days on a standard modern laptop; this would not be possible for existing methods, putting identification of concerning pathogen strains in the hands of more researchers due to reduced resource needs.

Thomas House, Professor of Mathematical Sciences at The University of Manchester, said: “The unprecedented amount of genetic data generated during the pandemic demands improvements to our methods to analyse it thoroughly. The data is continuing to grow rapidly but without showing a benefit to curating this data, there is a risk that it will be removed or deleted.

“We know that human expert time is limited, so our approach should not replace the work of humans all together but work alongside them to enable the job to be done much quicker and free our experts for other vital developments.”

The proposed method works by breaking down genetic sequences of the COVID-19 virus into smaller “words” (called 3-mers) represented as numbers by counting them. Then, it groups similar sequences together based on their word patterns using machine learning techniques.

Stefan Güttel, Professor of Applied Mathematics at the University of Manchester, said: “The clustering algorithm CLASSIX we developed is much less computationally demanding than traditional methods and is fully explainable, meaning that it provides textual and visual explanations of the computed clusters.”

Roberto Cahuantzi added: “Our analysis serves as a proof of concept, demonstrating the potential use of machine learning methods as an alert tool for the early discovery of emerging major variants without relying on the need to generate phylogenies.

“Whilst phylogenetics remains the ‘gold standard’ for understanding the viral ancestry, these machine learning methods can accommodate several orders of magnitude more sequences than the current phylogenetic methods and at a low computational cost.”

Journal

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

DOI

10.1073/pnas.2317284121

Article Title

Unsupervised identification of significant lineages of SARS-CoV-2 through scalable machine learning methods

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International

There will soon be one million seats on this popular Amtrak route

“More people are taking the train than ever before,” says Amtrak’s Executive Vice President.

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March 11, 2024

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While the size of the United States makes it hard for it to compete with the inter-city train access available in places like Japan and many European countries, Amtrak trains are a very popular transportation option in certain pockets of the country — so much so that the country’s national railway company is expanding its Northeast Corridor by more than one million seats.

Related: This is what it's like to take a 19-hour train from New York to Chicago

Running from Boston all the way south to Washington, D.C., the route is one of the most popular as it passes through the most densely populated part of the country and serves as a commuter train for those who need to go between East Coast cities such as New York and Philadelphia for business.

Veronika Bondarenko captured this photo of New York’s Moynihan Train Hall. 

Veronika Bondarenko

Amtrak launches new routes, promises travelers ‘additional travel options’

Earlier this month, Amtrak announced that it was adding four additional Northeastern routes to its schedule — two more routes between New York’s Penn Station and Union Station in Washington, D.C. on the weekend, a new early-morning weekday route between New York and Philadelphia’s William H. Gray III 30th Street Station and a weekend route between Philadelphia and Boston’s South Station.

More Travel:

According to Amtrak, these additions will increase Northeast Corridor’s service by 20% on the weekdays and 10% on the weekends for a total of one million additional seats when counted by how many will ride the corridor over the year.

“More people are taking the train than ever before and we’re proud to offer our customers additional travel options when they ride with us on the Northeast Regional,” Amtrak Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer Eliot Hamlisch said in a statement on the new routes. “The Northeast Regional gets you where you want to go comfortably, conveniently and sustainably as you breeze past traffic on I-95 for a more enjoyable travel experience.”

Here are some of the other Amtrak changes you can expect to see

Amtrak also said that, in the 2023 financial year, the Northeast Corridor had nearly 9.2 million riders — 8% more than it had pre-pandemic and a 29% increase from 2022. The higher demand, particularly during both off-peak hours and the time when many business travelers use to get to work, is pushing Amtrak to invest into this corridor in particular.

To reach more customers, Amtrak has also made several changes to both its routes and pricing system. In the fall of 2023, it introduced a type of new “Night Owl Fare” — if traveling during very late or very early hours, one can go between cities like New York and Philadelphia or Philadelphia and Washington. D.C. for $5 to $15.

As travel on the same routes during peak hours can reach as much as $300, this was a deliberate move to reach those who have the flexibility of time and might have otherwise preferred more affordable methods of transportation such as the bus. After seeing strong uptake, Amtrak added this type of fare to more Boston routes.

The largest distances, such as the ones between Boston and New York or New York and Washington, are available at the lowest rate for $20.

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International

The next pandemic? It’s already here for Earth’s wildlife

Bird flu is decimating species already threatened by climate change and habitat loss.

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March 11, 2024

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I am a conservation biologist who studies emerging infectious diseases. When people ask me what I think the next pandemic will be I often say that we are in the midst of one – it’s just afflicting a great many species more than ours.

I am referring to the highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI H5N1), otherwise known as bird flu, which has killed millions of birds and unknown numbers of mammals, particularly during the past three years.

This is the strain that emerged in domestic geese in China in 1997 and quickly jumped to humans in south-east Asia with a mortality rate of around 40-50%. My research group encountered the virus when it killed a mammal, an endangered Owston’s palm civet, in a captive breeding programme in Cuc Phuong National Park Vietnam in 2005.

How these animals caught bird flu was never confirmed. Their diet is mainly earthworms, so they had not been infected by eating diseased poultry like many captive tigers in the region.

This discovery prompted us to collate all confirmed reports of fatal infection with bird flu to assess just how broad a threat to wildlife this virus might pose.

This is how a newly discovered virus in Chinese poultry came to threaten so much of the world’s biodiversity.

H5N1 originated on a Chinese poultry farm in 1997. ChameleonsEye/Shutterstock

The first signs

Until December 2005, most confirmed infections had been found in a few zoos and rescue centres in Thailand and Cambodia. Our analysis in 2006 showed that nearly half (48%) of all the different groups of birds (known to taxonomists as “orders”) contained a species in which a fatal infection of bird flu had been reported. These 13 orders comprised 84% of all bird species.

We reasoned 20 years ago that the strains of H5N1 circulating were probably highly pathogenic to all bird orders. We also showed that the list of confirmed infected species included those that were globally threatened and that important habitats, such as Vietnam’s Mekong delta, lay close to reported poultry outbreaks.

Mammals known to be susceptible to bird flu during the early 2000s included primates, rodents, pigs and rabbits. Large carnivores such as Bengal tigers and clouded leopards were reported to have been killed, as well as domestic cats.

Our 2006 paper showed the ease with which this virus crossed species barriers and suggested it might one day produce a pandemic-scale threat to global biodiversity.

Unfortunately, our warnings were correct.

A roving sickness

Two decades on, bird flu is killing species from the high Arctic to mainland Antarctica.

In the past couple of years, bird flu has spread rapidly across Europe and infiltrated North and South America, killing millions of poultry and a variety of bird and mammal species. A recent paper found that 26 countries have reported at least 48 mammal species that have died from the virus since 2020, when the latest increase in reported infections started.

Not even the ocean is safe. Since 2020, 13 species of aquatic mammal have succumbed, including American sea lions, porpoises and dolphins, often dying in their thousands in South America. A wide range of scavenging and predatory mammals that live on land are now also confirmed to be susceptible, including mountain lions, lynx, brown, black and polar bears.

The UK alone has lost over 75% of its great skuas and seen a 25% decline in northern gannets. Recent declines in sandwich terns (35%) and common terns (42%) were also largely driven by the virus.

Scientists haven’t managed to completely sequence the virus in all affected species. Research and continuous surveillance could tell us how adaptable it ultimately becomes, and whether it can jump to even more species. We know it can already infect humans – one or more genetic mutations may make it more infectious.

At the crossroads

Between January 1 2003 and December 21 2023, 882 cases of human infection with the H5N1 virus were reported from 23 countries, of which 461 (52%) were fatal.

Of these fatal cases, more than half were in Vietnam, China, Cambodia and Laos. Poultry-to-human infections were first recorded in Cambodia in December 2003. Intermittent cases were reported until 2014, followed by a gap until 2023, yielding 41 deaths from 64 cases. The subtype of H5N1 virus responsible has been detected in poultry in Cambodia since 2014. In the early 2000s, the H5N1 virus circulating had a high human mortality rate, so it is worrying that we are now starting to see people dying after contact with poultry again.

It’s not just H5 subtypes of bird flu that concern humans. The H10N1 virus was originally isolated from wild birds in South Korea, but has also been reported in samples from China and Mongolia.

Recent research found that these particular virus subtypes may be able to jump to humans after they were found to be pathogenic in laboratory mice and ferrets. The first person who was confirmed to be infected with H10N5 died in China on January 27 2024, but this patient was also suffering from seasonal flu (H3N2). They had been exposed to live poultry which also tested positive for H10N5.

Species already threatened with extinction are among those which have died due to bird flu in the past three years. The first deaths from the virus in mainland Antarctica have just been confirmed in skuas, highlighting a looming threat to penguin colonies whose eggs and chicks skuas prey on. Humboldt penguins have already been killed by the virus in Chile.

A colony of king penguins.
Remote penguin colonies are already threatened by climate change. AndreAnita/Shutterstock

How can we stem this tsunami of H5N1 and other avian influenzas? Completely overhaul poultry production on a global scale. Make farms self-sufficient in rearing eggs and chicks instead of exporting them internationally. The trend towards megafarms containing over a million birds must be stopped in its tracks.

To prevent the worst outcomes for this virus, we must revisit its primary source: the incubator of intensive poultry farms.

Diana Bell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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