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Home Price Drops In Pandemic Boomtowns Could Be First Sign Of Coming Real Estate Turmoil

Home Price Drops In Pandemic Boomtowns Could Be First Sign Of Coming Real Estate Turmoil

While new home sales plunged in July, inventory…

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Home Price Drops In Pandemic Boomtowns Could Be First Sign Of Coming Real Estate Turmoil

While new home sales plunged in July, inventory continues to build, and median prices for new homes are back near record levels, some of the frothiest real estate markets, i.e., pandemic boomtowns, are rapidly cooling. 

New data from online brokerage Redfin shows 70% of homes for sale in Boise, Idaho, had price drops in July, the highest share of price drops out of 97 metros in the report. Next was Denver, where 58% of homes for sale had a price drop, Salt Lake City (56.4%), and Tacoma, Washington (54.8%). 

"Individual home sellers and builders were both quick to drop their prices early this summer, mostly because they had unrealistic expectations of both price and timelines," said Boise Redfin agent Shauna Pendleton.

Pendleton added: "They priced too high because their neighbor's home sold for an exorbitant price a few months ago, and expected to receive multiple offers the first weekend because they heard stories about that happening." 

As the winds in the pandemic boomtown shifted this summer, she advised sellers to "price their home correctly" to market conditions and understand things are slowing. 

The common denominator in all of these cities is that an influx of demand during the early days of the pandemic sent home prices quite literally 'through the roof' because city-dwellers figured out they could remote work to low-cost areas. 

Now the boom is ending in the frothiest of markets because the Federal Reserve's most aggressive interest rate hikes in years to quell the highest inflation in four decades has sent mortgage rates north of 5% in such a short period, sparking what we've been warning about for months of an emerging affordability crisis. 

So how could the housing downturn play out? Well, pandemic boomtowns could be the first domino to fall.

 Meanwhile, the overall US housing market seems to be stalling as sales in July plunged. 

What's troubling is inventory across the country is soaring back to 2008 levels. 

... at a time when US home prices are at near record highs (what could go wrong?). 

Pay attention to price drops in pandemic boomtowns because they could signal what's to come for the rest of the housing market.  

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/24/2022 - 15:45

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Desperate Gazans Raid UN Food Warehouses As Norway, France Condemn ‘Disproportionate’ Israeli Attacks

Desperate Gazans Raid UN Food Warehouses As Norway, France Condemn ‘Disproportionate’ Israeli Attacks

After three week under Israeli siege…

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Desperate Gazans Raid UN Food Warehouses As Norway, France Condemn 'Disproportionate' Israeli Attacks

After three week under Israeli siege and a bombing campaign which has been unprecedented in its intensity, Gazans are getting increasingly desperate. The Strip is almost completely enveloped in darkness, also with communications cut, which happened Friday, and the United Nations is now warning of a total breakdown in civic order.

UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) in Gaza has said that thousands of Palestinians have broken into several of its warehouses in the Strip, raiding wheat, flour, and hygiene stores - among other basic necessities stored there.

AFP/Getty Images: Palestinians take supplies from a UN-run aid centre in Deir al-Balah on Saturday

"This is a worrying sign that civil order is starting to break down after three weeks of war and a tight siege,” UNRWA director Thomas White told press agencies. 

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has also in fresh Sunday statements called the crisis a "nightmare" and again urged a ceasefire. "The situation in Gaza is growing more desperate by the hour. I regret that instead of a critically needed humanitarian pause, supported by the international community, Israel has intensified its military operations."

Over the weekend the Gazan death toll surpassed 8,000 - with Gaza's Health Ministry saying that most of these are women and young people. The Biden administration, which has repeatedly affirmed that it "stands with Israel", has also said that it doesn't trust casualty figures being issued by Hamas or Palestinian sources.

There are reports that communications were restored to much of the Gaza Strip as of Sunday, possibly the result of growing international pressure on the Israelis. Ten more aid trucks have also reportedly crossed from Egypt on Sunday.

According to Al Jazeera, "The Israeli military said on Sunday it had struck more than 450 targets over the past 24 hours, including Hamas command centres, observation posts and antitank missile launching positions. It said more ground forces were sent into Gaza overnight." The Israeli ground offensive has continued expanding, with The Guardian observing, "Under the cover of strikes and artillery, Israeli ground troops have begun moving into the north of the strip in Beit Lahia and Beit Hanoun in what the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, described as the “second stage” of the war triggered by Hamas."

IDF troops have been seen reaching a point some two miles into Gaza:

Israeli troops appear to have advanced over two miles into Gaza, according to a CNN analysis of video published by an Israeli media outlet. 

The troops in the video, taken on Saturday, are seen putting an Israeli flag on a Gaza resort hotel's roof. CNN geolocated the video to an area just over two miles from the Gaza-Israeli border.

"Soldiers of the 52 Battalion of the 401 Brigade are waving the Israeli flag in the heart of Gaza, by the beach," a soldier is heard saying in the video, taken several miles north of central Gaza City. "We will not forgive nor forget, and we’ll not stop until the victory."

Palestinian sources are also saying another major hospital, which is treating hundreds of patients and giving shelter to over 10,000, has come under attack:

Israeli airstrikes have “caused extensive damage to hospital departments and exposed residents and patients to suffocation” at the Al-Quds Hospital, the Palestinian Red Crescent Society said Sunday.

The aid organization accused Israel of “deliberately” launching the airstrikes “directly next to Al-Quds Hospital, with the aim of forcing the medical staff, displaced people, and patients to evacuate the hospital.”

Major bulldozing and tank operations have been observed on the beach in Gaza...

A statement cited in The Times of Israel described:

The IDF says troops killed a number of Hamas gunmen who opened fire at the ground forces in the Strip, and other terrorists identified on the beach in Gaza, near the southern Israel community of Zikim.

Hamas and the IDF have continued to exchange gunfire, but the status of forces on either said remains unknown and for the moment lost in the fog of war. At this point, if either suffers significant casualties, they are unlikely to make it publicly known.

IDF tanks on the coast of the northern Gaza Strip on Sunday. Image: Israeli Army

Meanwhile, the intensifying crisis for Palestinian civilians has not only led to massive street protests in various nations, particularly in Europe, but has resulted in rare criticism aimed at Israel from leading Western nations. The French government has issued scathing criticism of "unacceptable" Israeli settler attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank:

More than 100 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank since the outbreak of war in the Gaza Strip earlier this month, mostly during raids by Israeli forces or attacks by settlers, according to the Ramallah-based health ministry.

“France strongly condemns the settler attacks that have led to the deaths of several Palestinian civilians over the past few days in Qusra and Sawiya, as well as the forced departure of several communities,” said a foreign ministry statement.

And Norway too has condemned what it says is a massive and "disproportionate" response and death toll among Palestinians in the wake of the Oct.7 Hamas terror attack which killed 1,400 people. "International law stipulates that [the reaction] must be proportionate. Civilians must be taken into account, and humanitarian law is very clear on this. I think this limit has been largely exceeded," Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store aid in a public broadcast radio interview.

"Almost half of the thousands of people killed are children," he stressed. "Israel has the right to defend itself, and I recognize that it is very difficult to defend against attacks from an area as densely populated as Gaza,” Store said. "Rockets are still being fired from Gaza into Israel, and we condemn this."

Even the White House has begun to urge caution, with national security advisor Jake Sullivan telling the Sunday shows that even though Hamas used civilians as "human shields" - it's still ultimately Israel's responsibility to avoid hitting them.

"They’re putting rockets and other terrorist infrastructure in civilian areas. That creates an added burden for the Israeli Defense Forces," he said. "But it does not lessen their responsibility to distinguish between terrorists and innocent civilians and to protect the lives of innocent civilians as they conduct this military operation."

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/29/2023 - 15:05

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Gasoline prices, down 10% from September, are still falling

The U.S. national pump price has fallen in 40 of the last 42 days from its September peak. But global tensions may be holding prices declines back as crude…

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Gas prices are lower, a lot lower than in September. If seasonal patterns hold, you'll pay less at the pump even into the holidays. The U.S. national price for regular unleaded gasoline was $3.496 a gallon on Oct. 29. That's down 1.5% from a week earlier and nearly 10% from the Sept. 18 peak of $3.881 a gallon, according to American Automobile Association data. The U.S. price is still up 9.4% for the year but down 7.1% from the level on Sept. 29, 2022. And down 30% from the June 2022 peak of $5.016 a gallon. A 15-gallon fill-up at $3.881 on Sept. 18 meant you paid $58.22. Now, your outlay is $52.44. The prices declines could be steeper, but crude oil prices are providing a floor under pump prices. West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark U.S. crude, finished the week at $85.54 per 42-gallon barrel, down 2.9% from a week earlier and off 5.8% this month. For the year, WTI is still up 6.6%. Prices are lower across the country. The statewide California price was the nation's highest at $5.295 a gallon, off 2.8% from a week earlier and 78.4 cents from a month ago. The lowest prices were in Calaveras County, at $4.832 a gallon, with Mono County experiencing the highest at $6.528. The lowest state-wide price again was Georgia at $2.967 a gallon, down 3.6 cents on the week down and off 29.4 cents from a week ago. The lowest prices were in Jeff Davis county at $2.724 a gallon. Highest was Crawford County's $3.279 a gallon. Energy shares were lower this week, even with several huge oil mergers getting announced. Chevron  (CVX ) - Get Free Reportannounced Monday it was buying Hess Corp.  (HES) - Get Free Report  in an all-stock deal valued at $53 billion. Chevron, however, fell 12% on the week as quarterly results missed estimates. Prices typically decline in the fall after the summer driving season. Gasoline demand declines, and cooler temperatures allow refiner to put in cheaper ingredients into their blends. Prices typically start to move up in mid-to-late winter.

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Brazil’s USDT adoption soars in 2023, makes up 80% of all crypto transactions

USDT has seen a significant surge in adoption in Brazil, accounting for 80% of all cryptocurrency transactions in the country so far in 2023.

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USDT has seen a significant surge in adoption in Brazil, accounting for 80% of all cryptocurrency transactions in the country so far in 2023.

Stablecoin Tether (USDT) has seen a significant surge in adoption in Brazil, accounting for 80% of all cryptocurrency transactions in the country, according to data from Brazil’s revenue service agency. 

As of mid-October, USDT transactions in Brazil this year amounted to $271 billion Brazilian reais (~$55 billion), almost double the volume of Bitcoin (BTC) transactions in the country, which were $151 billion reais (~$30 billion). Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable value, often pegged to the value of fiat currencies, like the U.S. dollar and the Brazilian real.

USDT transactions have been on the rise in Brazil since 2021, but crossed Bitcoin volume for the first time in July 2022, just at the peak of the crypto industry’s storm last year, when crypto lenders Three Arrows Capital and Voyager Capital collapsed.

Top six cryptocurrencies by volume in Brazilian Reais. Source: Receita Federal 

The crypto winter slashed the volume of crypto transactions in the country by nearly 25% in 2022, ending at $154.4 billion reais, or ~$31 billion, the government reported.

The Brazilian tax agency tracks crypto-related activities of citizens using a sophisticated system that relies on artificial intelligence and network analysis. According to a blog post, the system is able to detect suspicious activity as well as trace the location of individuals trading cryptocurrencies.

The revenue agency is also targeting crypto investments held by the country’s citizens overseas. On Oct. 25, the local Congress passed legislation that recognizes cryptocurrencies as “financial assets” for tax purposes in foreign investments. Earnings overseas between 6,000 and 50,000 reais (~$10,000) will be subject to a 15% tax rate starting in January 2024. Above this threshold, taxes will be applied at 22.5%.

Since 2019, crypto exchanges operating in Brazil are required to disclose all user transactions to the government. Capital gains from crypto sales exceeding 35,000 reais (~7,000) per month are subject to a progressive tax bracket of 15% to 22.50%.

Global crypto exchanges such as Coinbase, Binance, Bitso, and Crypto.com operate in the country alongside local players such as Mercado Bitcoin and Foxbit.

Magazine: Ethereum restaking — Blockchain innovation or dangerous house of cards?

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