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Futures Rise, World Stocks At All-Time High On Last Full Day Of 2020

Futures Rise, World Stocks At All-Time High On Last Full Day Of 2020

US equity futures and world stocks rose again as the last thrush of the year end rally levitated risk assets, with the S&P inching closer to recent all time highs and…

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Futures Rise, World Stocks At All-Time High On Last Full Day Of 2020

US equity futures and world stocks rose again as the last thrush of the year end rally levitated risk assets, with the S&P inching closer to recent all time highs and Asian shares hitting a record on Wednesday. Futures on the S&P 500 added 0.4%, recouping much of Tuesday's losses, and emerging-market stocks advanced to the highest levels since 2007 on buoyant inflows. U.S. stocks retreated from an intraday record high on Tuesday after Mitch McConnell put off a vote on President Donald Trump’s call to increase COVID-19 relief checks from $600 to $2,000.

The upbeat mood pushed the dollar to its lowest since April 2018, while its replacement, Bitcoin, extended its frenzied rally, approaching $29,000 before reversing. Speculative bets on USD futures hit the most bearish since 2011.

Predictably, on the last full-day session of the year, volumes were lethargic with Europe's Stoxx 50 seeing about half of the average activity.  That did not stop them from rising, however, and Europe’s stock markets were set for a sixth straight session of gains as AstraZeneca and Oxford University’s coronavirus vaccine became the second to be approved by Britain, helping the FTSE 100 add as much as 0.2% early on. A new, more transmittable variant of the virus is spreading rapidly but European Union countries have also begun rolling out Pfizer and BioNTech’s vaccine this week. The United States also detected its first-known case of the new, highly infectious coronavirus strains already spotted in Britain and South Africa. Away from the virus worries, British lawmakers were set to vote on the UK-European Union trade deal later on Wednesday, a day before a Brexit transition arrangement expires.

“This is an economy that is recovering, policy is going to be accommodative for years to come, it suggest a good backdrop for risk assets – it doesn’t mean there aren’t going to be some challenges as we progress over the next couple of years,” Brian Levitt, Invesco global market strategist, said on Bloomberg TV. “The reality is the markets are going to be focused on a recovery.”

Elsewhere, MSCI’s world stocks index remained upbeat, up 0.2% and within touching distance of the record highs it had set on Tuesday. The index is up 14% this year and nearly 70% from its March lows, boosted by trillions of dollars in central bank liquidity and helicopter money and also hopes that coronavirus vaccines will re-open locked-down economies.

"The prospect of more rapid and widespread inoculation will be a shot of confidence to markets as the COVID-19 struggle intensifies," said Janet Mui, investment director at wealth manager Brewin Dolphin.

Earlier in the session, Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan rose 1.4% to a record high, bringing its gains this year to 19% led by Hong Kong and South Korea, as investors continued to chase beaten-down Chinese internet names. That offset the sentiment drag from fading prospects for bigger U.S. stimulus payments. An extended rebound in shares of Tencent and Meituan, which had been falling amid an antitrust probe into rival Alibaba, helped the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gain 0.8% on Wednesday. China’s tech-heavy ChiNext Index climbed 3.4%, putting it in line for its highest close since July 2015. The advance took the index gain in 2020 to 62%, in line for the most in five years. The large-cap CSI 300 Index also on pace for highest finish since 2015, rising 1.1%

Communication services and information technology were Asia's top-performing sectors while industrials was the only industry group to fall. Hong Kong’s benchmark jumped 2.2% to the highest level since February, led by Alibaba and peers, as mainland money continued to pile in. China’s CSI 300 Index gained 1.4% to its highest close since June 2015. South Korea’s Kospi jumped 1.9% However, equities in Australia retreated after a three-day rally. Japan stocks also fell on their last day of trading for the year, down -0.45%, though the Nikkei 225 Stock Average ended near its highest level in 30 years..

Attention now again turns to the Senate, where although many Republican Senators in the United States remain adamantly opposed to increasing relief payments, support is growing among them, including two from Georgia, who are running in crucial races that will determine who will control the Senate.

In FX, the dollar’s weakness continued. It dropped again on Wednesday, the first day where settlement of trades will be in 2021. The Bloomberg dollar index slid 0.4% to its lowest since April 18, 2018 as traders squared currency positions ahead of the year’s end amid thin liquidity. The euro reached its highest since 2018 against the greenback at close to $1.23, while the pound climbed, with U.K. lawmakers expected to approve a post-Brexit trade deal with the European Union later Wednesday.  The risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars advanced amid portfolio rebalancing flows: the OZ dollar rose 0.6% to $0.7663, a two-and-a-half-year high. The Japanese yen also gained 0.25% to 103.28 per dollar.

“The start of COVID‑19 immunization campaigns in several countries as well as additional U.S. fiscal support reduce downside risk to the global economy and bode well for general financial market sentiment,” analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said in a note.

In rates, yields are slightly cheaper across the curve near session highs as U.S. trading gets under way, facing upside pressure from risk assets. U.S. yields are cheaper by ~2bp at long end of the curve, steepening 5s30s by ~1bp, with 10-year just below 0.95%, higher by ~1bp vs 2.5bp for U.K. 10-year yield; bunds trade broadly in line on final trading day of the year for euro-area government debt. Gilt yields and pound also are higher after U.K. approved another vaccine.

In commodities, oil prices extended their recent climb on hopes stimulus and reopening of economies next year will spur fuel demand. WTI crude futures were up 0.73% at $48.35 a barrel. Gold was steady at $1,878.5 an ounce, while bitcoin hit a record high of $28,600 before reversing.

On today's calendar, the economic data agenda includes pending home sales, MNI Chicago PMI and wholesale inventories

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 3,733.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 402.52
  • MXAP up 0.8% to 199.23
  • MXAPJ up 1.4% to 658.71
  • Nikkei down 0.5% to 27,444.17
  • Topix down 0.8% to 1,804.68
  • Hang Seng Index up 2.2% to 27,147.11
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.1% to 3,414.45
  • Sensex up 0.3% to 47,745.08
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 6,682.43
  • Kospi up 1.9% to 2,873.47
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.3 bps to -0.558%
  • Euro up 0.08% to $1.2259
  • Brent Futures up 0.6% to $51.39/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.8 bps to 0.447%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.7 bps to 0.057%
  • Brent Futures up 0.6% to $51.39/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.06% to $1,879.32
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 89.86

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • AstraZeneca Plc and the University of Oxford’s Covid-19 vaccine won U.K. clearance, marking the first approval worldwide for a shot that’s faced questions but will be key to mass immunizations
  • Economic shocks like the coronavirus pandemic of 2020 only arrive once every few generations, and they bring about permanent and far-reaching change
  • Boris Johnson urged U.K. lawmakers to approve his Brexit trade deal and complete Britain’s four-year divorce from the European Union. Parliament was recalled from its Christmas break for an emergency session on Wednesday to rush the trade agreement into law in a single day, 24 hours before the U.K. leaves the EU single market and customs union
  • Changes to the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate setting panel will make the U.S. central bank even less likely to tighten monetary policy in the new year, no matter how much of a jolt the economy gets from the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines
  • More areas of England are set to be placed under lockdown, as the new coronavirus strain puts growing pressure on hospitals. People living in London, Essex and Kent should behave as if they have Covid-19, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said in an interview with LBC radio on Wednesday
  • Germany’s daily coronavirus deaths surpassed 1,000 for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic, underscoring the urgency facing Europe’s leaders to slow the spread and roll out vaccines

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. $81.5b deficit, prior $80.3b deficit
  • 8:30am: Retail Inventories MoM, prior 0.8%; Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 1.1%
  • 9:45am: MNI Chicago PMI, est. 56, prior 58.2
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 0.0%, prior -1.1%; NSA YoY, est. 21.0%, prior 19.5%
Tyler Durden Wed, 12/30/2020 - 07:46

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Simple blood test could predict risk of long-term COVID-19 lung problems

UVA Health researchers have discovered a potential way to predict which patients with severe COVID-19 are likely to recover well and which are likely to…

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UVA Health researchers have discovered a potential way to predict which patients with severe COVID-19 are likely to recover well and which are likely to suffer “long-haul” lung problems. That finding could help doctors better personalize treatments for individual patients.

Credit: UVA Health

UVA Health researchers have discovered a potential way to predict which patients with severe COVID-19 are likely to recover well and which are likely to suffer “long-haul” lung problems. That finding could help doctors better personalize treatments for individual patients.

UVA’s new research also alleviates concerns that severe COVID-19 could trigger relentless, ongoing lung scarring akin to the chronic lung disease known as idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, the researchers report. That type of continuing lung damage would mean that patients’ ability to breathe would continue to worsen over time.

“We are excited to find that people with long-haul COVID have an immune system that is totally different from people who have lung scarring that doesn’t stop,” said researcher Catherine A. Bonham, MD, a pulmonary and critical care expert who serves as scientific director of UVA Health’s Interstitial Lung Disease Program. “This offers hope that even patients with the worst COVID do not have progressive scarring of the lung that leads to death.”

Long-Haul COVID-19

Up to 30% of patients hospitalized with severe COVID-19 continue to suffer persistent symptoms months after recovering from the virus. Many of these patients develop lung scarring – some early on in their hospitalization, and others within six months of their initial illness, prior research has found. Bonham and her collaborators wanted to better understand why this scarring occurs, to determine if it is similar to progressive pulmonary fibrosis and to see if there is a way to identify patients at risk.

To do this, the researchers followed 16 UVA Health patients who had survived severe COVID-19. Fourteen had been hospitalized and placed on a ventilator. All continued to have trouble breathing and suffered fatigue and abnormal lung function at their first outpatient checkup.

After six months, the researchers found that the patients could be divided into two groups: One group’s lung health improved, prompting the researchers to label them “early resolvers,” while the other group, dubbed “late resolvers,” continued to suffer lung problems and pulmonary fibrosis. 

Looking at blood samples taken before the patients’ recovery began to diverge, the UVA team found that the late resolvers had significantly fewer immune cells known as monocytes circulating in their blood. These white blood cells play a critical role in our ability to fend off disease, and the cells were abnormally depleted in patients who continued to suffer lung problems compared both to those who recovered and healthy control subjects. 

Further, the decrease in monocytes correlated with the severity of the patients’ ongoing symptoms. That suggests that doctors may be able to use a simple blood test to identify patients likely to become long-haulers — and to improve their care.

“About half of the patients we examined still had lingering, bothersome symptoms and abnormal tests after six months,” Bonham said. “We were able to detect differences in their blood from the first visit, with fewer blood monocytes mapping to lower lung function.”

The researchers also wanted to determine if severe COVID-19 could cause progressive lung scarring as in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. They found that the two conditions had very different effects on immune cells, suggesting that even when the symptoms were similar, the underlying causes were very different. This held true even in patients with the most persistent long-haul COVID-19 symptoms. “Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is progressive and kills patients within three to five years,” Bonham said. “It was a relief to see that all our COVID patients, even those with long-haul symptoms, were not similar.”

Because of the small numbers of participants in UVA’s study, and because they were mostly male (for easier comparison with IPF, a disease that strikes mostly men), the researchers say larger, multi-center studies are needed to bear out the findings. But they are hopeful that their new discovery will provide doctors a useful tool to identify COVID-19 patients at risk for long-haul lung problems and help guide them to recovery.

“We are only beginning to understand the biology of how the immune system impacts pulmonary fibrosis,” Bonham said. “My team and I were humbled and grateful to work with the outstanding patients who made this study possible.” 

Findings Published

The researchers have published their findings in the scientific journal Frontiers in Immunology. The research team consisted of Grace C. Bingham, Lyndsey M. Muehling, Chaofan Li, Yong Huang, Shwu-Fan Ma, Daniel Abebayehu, Imre Noth, Jie Sun, Judith A. Woodfolk, Thomas H. Barker and Bonham. Noth disclosed that he has received personal fees from Boehringer Ingelheim, Genentech and Confo unrelated to the research project. In addition, he has a patent pending related to idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Bonham and all other members of the research team had no financial conflicts to disclose.

The UVA research was supported by the National Institutes of Health, grants R21 AI160334 and U01 AI125056; NIH’s National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute, grants 5K23HL143135-04 and UG3HL145266; UVA’s Engineering in Medicine Seed Fund; the UVA Global Infectious Diseases Institute’s COVID-19 Rapid Response; a UVA Robert R. Wagner Fellowship; and a Sture G. Olsson Fellowship in Engineering.

  

To keep up with the latest medical research news from UVA, subscribe to the Making of Medicine blog at http://makingofmedicine.virginia.edu.


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Looking Back At COVID’s Authoritarian Regimes

After having moved from Canada to the United States, partly to be wealthier and partly to be freer (those two are connected, by the way), I was shocked,…

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After having moved from Canada to the United States, partly to be wealthier and partly to be freer (those two are connected, by the way), I was shocked, in March 2020, when President Trump and most US governors imposed heavy restrictions on people’s freedom. The purpose, said Trump and his COVID-19 advisers, was to “flatten the curve”: shut down people’s mobility for two weeks so that hospitals could catch up with the expected demand from COVID patients. In her book Silent Invasion, Dr. Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, admitted that she was scrambling during those two weeks to come up with a reason to extend the lockdowns for much longer. As she put it, “I didn’t have the numbers in front of me yet to make the case for extending it longer, but I had two weeks to get them.” In short, she chose the goal and then tried to find the data to justify the goal. This, by the way, was from someone who, along with her task force colleague Dr. Anthony Fauci, kept talking about the importance of the scientific method. By the end of April 2020, the term “flatten the curve” had all but disappeared from public discussion.

Now that we are four years past that awful time, it makes sense to look back and see whether those heavy restrictions on the lives of people of all ages made sense. I’ll save you the suspense. They didn’t. The damage to the economy was huge. Remember that “the economy” is not a term used to describe a big machine; it’s a shorthand for the trillions of interactions among hundreds of millions of people. The lockdowns and the subsequent federal spending ballooned the budget deficit and consequent federal debt. The effect on children’s learning, not just in school but outside of school, was huge. These effects will be with us for a long time. It’s not as if there wasn’t another way to go. The people who came up with the idea of lockdowns did so on the basis of abstract models that had not been tested. They ignored a model of human behavior, which I’ll call Hayekian, that is tested every day.

These are the opening two paragraphs of my latest Defining Ideas article, “Looking Back at COVID’s Authoritarian Regimes,” Defining Ideas, March 14, 2024.

Another excerpt:

That wasn’t the only uncertainty. My daughter Karen lived in San Francisco and made her living teaching Pilates. San Francisco mayor London Breed shut down all the gyms, and so there went my daughter’s business. (The good news was that she quickly got online and shifted many of her clients to virtual Pilates. But that’s another story.) We tried to see her every six weeks or so, whether that meant our driving up to San Fran or her driving down to Monterey. But were we allowed to drive to see her? In that first month and a half, we simply didn’t know.

Read the whole thing, which is longer than usual.

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The hostility Black women face in higher education carries dire consequences

9 Black women who were working on or recently earned their PhDs told a researcher they felt isolated and shut out.

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Isolation can make opportunities elusive. fotostorm via Getty Images

Isolated. Abused. Overworked.

These are the themes that emerged when I invited nine Black women to chronicle their professional experiences and relationships with colleagues as they earned their Ph.D.s at a public university in the Midwest. I featured their writings in the dissertation I wrote to get my Ph.D. in curriculum and instruction.

The women spoke of being silenced.

“It’s not just the beating me down that is hard,” one participant told me about constantly having her intelligence questioned. “It is the fact that it feels like I’m villainized and made out to be the problem for trying to advocate for myself.”

The women told me they did not feel like they belonged. They spoke of routinely being isolated by peers and potential mentors.

One participant told me she felt that peer community, faculty mentorship and cultural affinity spaces were lacking.

Because of the isolation, participants often felt that they were missing out on various opportunities, such as funding and opportunities to get their work published.

Participants also discussed the ways they felt they were duped into taking on more than their fair share of work.

“I realized I had been tricked into handling a two- to four-person job entirely by myself,” one participant said of her paid graduate position. “This happened just about a month before the pandemic occurred so it very quickly got swept under the rug.”

Why it matters

The hostility that Black women face in higher education can be hazardous to their health. The women in my study told me they were struggling with depression, had thought about suicide and felt physically ill when they had to go to campus.

Other studies have found similar outcomes. For instance, a 2020 study of 220 U.S. Black college women ages 18-48 found that even though being seen as a strong Black woman came with its benefits – such as being thought of as resilient, hardworking, independent and nurturing – it also came at a cost to their mental and physical health.

These kinds of experiences can take a toll on women’s bodies and can result in poor maternal health, cancer, shorter life expectancy and other symptoms that impair their ability to be well.

I believe my research takes on greater urgency in light of the recent death of Antoinette “Bonnie” Candia-Bailey, who was vice president of student affairs at Lincoln University. Before she died by suicide, she reportedly wrote that she felt she was suffering abuse and that the university wasn’t taking her mental health concerns seriously.

What other research is being done

Several anthologies examine the negative experiences that Black women experience in academia. They include education scholars Venus Evans-Winters and Bettina Love’s edited volume, “Black Feminism in Education,” which examines how Black women navigate what it means to be a scholar in a “white supremacist patriarchal society.” Gender and sexuality studies scholar Stephanie Evans analyzes the barriers that Black women faced in accessing higher education from 1850 to 1954. In “Black Women, Ivory Tower,” African American studies professor Jasmine Harris recounts her own traumatic experiences in the world of higher education.

What’s next

In addition to publishing the findings of my research study, I plan to continue exploring the depths of Black women’s experiences in academia, expanding my research to include undergraduate students, as well as faculty and staff.

I believe this research will strengthen this field of study and enable people who work in higher education to develop and implement more comprehensive solutions.

The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.

Ebony Aya received funding from the Black Collective Foundation in 2022 to support the work of the Aya Collective.

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