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Futures Reverse Early Losses As Walmart Beat Sparks Relief Buying

Futures Reverse Early Losses As Walmart Beat Sparks Relief Buying

US stock futures drifted modestly lower after hitting a 4-month high just…

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Futures Reverse Early Losses As Walmart Beat Sparks Relief Buying

US stock futures drifted modestly lower after hitting a 4-month high just above 4,300 during Monday's session, boosted by solid earnings and a guidance boost from Walmart, as attention turned back to lingering worries about the path of economic growth, how long until the NBER admits the US is in a recession and how Fed policy ties the room together. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 were down less than 0.1% by 7:45 a.m. ET. 

Gains in technology stocks on Monday spurred the broader benchmark equity index to its highest since May, with investors shrugging off terrible Chinese economic data. Crude oil reversed some of its recent sharp losses amid economic headwinds that clouded the demand outlook and prospects for an increase in supply. The greenback settled higher after fluctuating between gains and losses, while bitcoin traded above $24K. Chinese stocks listed in the US declined in premarket trading after a Reuters report that Tencent would liquidate its $24BN stake in Meituan to appease Beijing, sparking concerns it would do the same to its other investments.

Among notable movers in premarket trading, Snowflake fell 3.5% after Tiger Global Management cut its position in the software firm for the first time in eight quarters, according to latest 13F filings. Chinese stocks listed in New York fell in premarket trading following the Tencent report. Pinduoduo Inc. lost 4%, while JD.com Inc. declined 2.2%. Zoom Video Communications slid 3% after Citigroup Inc. downgraded its recommendation on the stock to sell from neutral, seeing “new hurdles to sustaining growth.”  Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Big-box retailers gain in premarket trading after Walmart said it sees a full-year adjusted EPS decline of 9% to 11% -- less steep than its previous projection for a decline of 11% to 13% -- following a stronger-than-expected earnings report for the second quarter.
  • Zoom VideoCommunications (ZM US) down 3% in pre-market trading as Citi cuts its recommendation on the stock to sell from neutral, saying it sees “new hurdles to sustaining growth,” including growing competition from services like Microsoft Teams and macro-related pressures hitting customers.
  • Bird Global (BRDS US) shares drop 6.4% in premarket trading after the electric vehicle company on Aug. 15 posted second-quarter results that showed a wider net loss than the same period a year earlier.
  • Chinese stocks in US fall in premarket trading following a report that Tencent plans to sell all or much of its stake in food delivery company Meituan, in an effort to appease Beijing and lock in profits.
  • Alibaba (BABA US) -2.2%, Nio (NIO US) -1%, Baidu (BIDU US) -1.8%
  • Compass (COMP US) analysts at Barclays and Morgan Stanley cut their price targets on the real estate brokerage after it reduced its full-year guidance and announced plans to cut costs. The shares plunged 12% in US postmarket trading on Monday.
  • Ginkgo Bioworks (DNA US) shares jump as much as 23% in US premarket trading after the cell programming platform operator’s revenue for the second quarter beat estimates.
  • Snowflake (SNOW US) drops 3.5% in premarket trading after Tiger Global Management cut its position in the software firm for the first time in eight quarters, according to latest 13F filings.

“The lack of clear direction is driving the markets up and down,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, wrote in a note. “Yesterday’s data softens the case for the continuation of the steep recovery, and throws the foundation of a period of consolidation, and perhaps a downside correction.”

A sharp drop in New York state manufacturing, the second-worst reading since 2001, along with the longest streak of declines since 2007 in homebuilder sentiment, sparked another round of "bad news is good news" and boosted hopes that the Fed may slow interest-rate hikes. However, it was soon outweighed by fears of a recession and belief among some traders the Fed could still press ahead with its tightening irrespective of a slowdown. 

US stocks have been rallying since mid-June on optimism that corporate earnings are holding up even with higher prices and weakening consumer sentiment. The market also has gotten a boost from speculation that the Fed will slow the pace of interest rate increases after cooler-than-expected inflation data. While some strategists, especially those at JPMorgan, suggest the rebound could extend until the end of the year as investors turn less bearish, others including Michael Wilson at Morgan Stanley have said disappointing earnings are likely to spark another selloff in stocks.

As a result of the recent frenzied positional rally, four weeks of gains have pushed more than 90% of S&P 500 members above their 50-day moving averages. That’s been a good omen in the past, with stocks showing gains of 5.7% on average in the following three months and rising 18% in the 12 months after the signal. Negative returns have been a rare exception, with stocks falling only twice. “While this is not a necessary condition for the end of the bear market, it would increase our confidence that a rally back to the old highs will come before a return to the June lows,” Jeff Buchbinder, a strategist at LPL Financial, wrote in a note on Monday.

On the other hand, Skylar Montgomery Koning, senior global macro strategist at TS Lombard, said the bar for the Fed to stop its hiking cycle was high. “The market is betting not only that inflation comes down to a level that the Fed is comfortable with, but that the Fed reaction is timely,” she said on Bloomberg Television. “It may take until we get a 75-basis point hike in September or the new set of dot projections, and that may have to be what makes the market narrative shift.”

  • European bourses are firmer across the board after a relatively constructive APAC handover, the Euro Stoxx 50 rising +0.4%, though off best levels post-ZEW. IBEX outperforms, adding 1.1%. Miners, telecoms and utilities are the strongest performing sectors. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:
  • Delivery Hero shares jump as much as 14% after the firm projected 7% q/q growth in gross merchandise value in 3Q, in- line with expectations and putting the firm on track to meet its FY targets
  • Glencore and other European miners outperform the broader market after BHP posted its highest ever FY profit and said it will push ahead with growth options
  • Philips rises as much as 3.6% after its CEO Frans van Houten said he would step down in October, with the current head of the company’s Connected Care division, Roy Jakobs, taking over
  • Watches of Switzerland jumps as much as 7.1%, reaching the highest since June 7, after the watchmaker published a first-quarter trading update. Analysts found the update to be solid
  • Jyske Bank gains as much as 9.1% after the Danish lender reported 2Q pretax profit that topped Citigroup’s estimate by more than 20%, with Citi noting provisions came in well above expectations
  • DFDS climbs as much as 8.7% after the Danish logistics company published 2Q results that beat consensus estimates and boosted its FY22 revenue forecast, RBC writes in a note
  • Pandora drops as much as 8%, the most in more than three months, after the jewelery maker reported Ebit before significant items that missed the average analyst estimate
  • Sonova and other European hearing aid makers lead losses on the Stoxx 600 after the firm and Danish peer Demant cut their guidance, with analysts flagging negative consensus revisions
  • Straumann plunges as much as 14%, the most intraday since May 2020, after the oral care company announced 1H results and reaffirmed its guidance for the year
  • Hemnet falls as much as 16% after the Swedish property ad company offered 8 million shares at SEK147 a share in a secondary offering announced on Monday after markets closed
  • Hargreaves Lansdown declines as much as 1.8% after Credit Suisse downgraded its recommendation to neutral from outperform due to the personal investment firm’s valuation

Earlier in the session, Asian equities fell as investors weighed growth risks in the region against the probability of a slower pace of US interest-rate increases. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 0.4%, and is poised to snap a four-day winning streak. Hong Kong shares fell the most, with Meituan among the biggest drags on the regional gauge after Reuters reported that Tencent intends to sell all or much of its $24 billion stake in the food-delivery giant to appease Beijing. Across Asia, energy shares slid as oil prices fell on rapidly cooling US manufacturing that followed weaker-than-expected Chinese data Monday -- offsetting gains in materials and utilities shares. After improving sentiment pushed up the region’s stocks for four straight weeks, markets are looking ahead to minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting due Wednesday for hints on its rate-hike trajectory. Closer to home, China’s surprise interest-rate cut on Monday did little to allay concerns over the property sector and the broader slowdown from Covid restrictions. Economists and state media are calling for additional stimulus, which could aid a rally in Chinese stocks and Asian peers.

“While the downside surprises across the economic calendar suggested that growth conditions have clearly worsened, market participants seem willing to ride on optimism” that the Fed may shift to a looser policy stance sooner with easing inflation, Jun Rong Yeap, market strategist at IG Asia said in a note. Japan’s benchmarks dropped while gauges in the Philippines, Malaysia and India rose. Indonesian shares were higher after President Joko Widodo said in his annual budget speech that he aims to narrow next year’s deficit to below 3% of gross domestic product for the first time since 2019.

Japanese stocks edged lower as investors remained on the lookout for signs of an economic slowdown in the US and China. The Topix Index fell 0.2% to 1,981.96 at the market close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 was virtually unchanged at 28,868.91. SoftBank Group Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s decline, decreasing 2.6% after Elliot Management sold off almost all of its position in the company. Out of 2,170 stocks in the index, 908 rose and 1,138 fell, while 124 were unchanged. 

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.6% to close at 7,105.40, its highest level since June 8. BHP, the largest-weighted stock in the benchmark, was among the top performers Tuesday after its full-year profit exceeded analysts’ expectations. Challenger slumped after announcing a strategic review of Challenger Bank. In New Zealand, the S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.5% to 11,847.15.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced a third day as the greenback was steady to higher against all of its Group-of-10 peers. The euro touched an almost two-week low of $1.0125 after German ZEW expecations index came in lower than forecast. Aussie recovered a loss after the Reserve Bank’s August minutes failed to bolster bearish views, only to resume its slide in the European session. Australia’s central bank signaled further interest-rate increases would come in the period ahead, while restating it will be guided by incoming economic data and the inflation outlook. The yen was steady in the Asian session only to slip in the European session. China’s onshore yuan fell to the lowest since May, tracking Monday’s losses in the offshore unit. The nation’s central bank didn’t push back strongly against the currency weakness through its daily reference rate on Tuesday but traders are watching if its stance would change in case the yuan selloff deepens. USD/CNY rose as much as 0.3% to 6.7978, the highest since May 16; USD/CNH falls 0.1% to 6.8113 after surging 1.2% on Monday

In rates, Treasuries were mixed, pivoting around a near unchanged 10-year sector with the curve flatter as long-end outperforms. Bunds and gilts underperform with the latter following stronger-than-forecast UK wage figures for June. US yields cheaper by up to 2bp across front-end and richer by 1.5bp in long-end of the curve -- 2s10s, 5s30s spreads subsequently flatter by 1.7bp and 2.7bp on the day; 10-year yields around 2.79% and near unchanged, outperforming both bunds and gilts by over 1bp. 

European bonds fall, with the yield on German 10-year up about 2bps, while gilts 10-year yield rises ~3bps following stronger-than-forecast UK wage figures for June. . Both are trading within Monday’s range. Peripheral spreads are mixed to Germany; Italy and Spain widen, Portugal tightens. Italian 10-year yield rises ~7bps to 3.04%. Australian and New Zealand bonds extended opening gains amid concerns over economic growth. Japanese government bonds rallied as a smooth five-year auction and concerns over global economic slowdown encouraged buying.

In commodities, WTI traded within Monday’s range when crude futures fell around 5% over the previous two sessions. Besides economic worries, investors are also facing the prospect of rising supply as demand moderates. Libya is pumping more and Iran is edging closer to reviving a nuclear deal that will likely see higher crude flows. On Tuesday, oil reversed recent losses however, and rose more than 1% to over $90 as the prospect of an "imminent" Iranian deal once again faded; Iran responded to the EU's draft nuclear deal and expects a response in the next two days, according to a source cited by ISNA. It was also reported that an adviser to the Iranian negotiating delegation told Al-Jazeera they are not far from an agreement and chances of reaching a nuclear deal are very high. Iran's response to the draft EU JCPOA text will probably fail to satisfy Western parties, particularly the US, according to Iran International; Iran wants further provisions around economic guarantees above the one-year exemption reportedly being offered. Elsewhere, spot gold falls roughly $4 to around $1,775/oz. Base metals are mixed; LME tin falls 1% while LME zinc gains 1.9%.

Looking to the day ahead, data releases from the US include July’s industrial production, capacity utilization, housing starts and building permits. In the UK, there’s unemployment for June, Germany has the ZEW survey for August and Canada has July’s CPI. Elsewhere, we’ll get earnings releases from Walmart and Home Depot.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,295.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 443.91
  • MXAP down 0.3% to 163.03
  • MXAPJ little changed at 529.75
  • Nikkei little changed at 28,868.91
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,981.96
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.0% to 19,830.52
  • Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,277.89
  • Sensex up 0.5% to 59,751.63
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 7,105.39
  • Kospi up 0.2% to 2,533.52
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 0.91%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.0140
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,774.93
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.18% to 106.74

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Tencent-Backed Giants Dive on Report of $24 Billion Meituan Sale
  • Oil Extends Losses on Global Slowdown and Chance of More Supply
  • Babylon Said to Mull Take-Private Not Long After SPAC Deal
  • Chipmakers’ Pandemic Boom Turns to Bust as Recession Looms
  • Apple Lays Off Recruiters as Part of Its Slowdown in Hiring
  • FAA Warns of Monday Evening Delays at NYC Area Airports
  • Wong Says Singapore Must Compromise Over Law on Sex Between Men
  • ‘Broken’ Barclays ETN Soars to 33% Premium With Issuance Halted
  • Trump Executive Weisselberg in Plea Talks to Resolve Tax Case
  • US Congress Pushes Biden Toward Risky Confrontation With China
  • Twitter Must Give Musk Data, Documents From Ex-Product Head
  • Next Singapore PM Warns US, China May ‘Sleepwalk Into Conflict’
  • Apple Sets Return-to-Office Deadline of Sept. 5 After Delays
  • Tiger Global, Yale Cut Stocks Last Quarter as Markets Tumbled
  • Druckenmiller Sold Big Tech in Bear Market as Soros Dove Back In
  • A Century of Fed Crises Holds Secrets to Fight Future Recession
  • Compass Stock Slumps as CEO Reffkin Plots Out More Cost Cuts

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks were mostly positive as the region followed suit to the gains on Wall Street but with upside limited as economic slowdown concerns lingered. ASX 200 traded higher amid a deluge of earnings and with the index led by the mining sector including BHP shares after the industry giant reported a record FY underlying net and dividend. Nikkei 225 lacked direction amid the absence of any major fresh macro drivers and alongside a choppy currency. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were initially kept afloat by support-related optimism with developers encouraged after reports that China is considering issuing government-guaranteed bonds to provide liquidity to certain developers, while PBoC-backed press noted that China needs additional policy stimulus to increase economic growth. However, the Hang Seng later pulled back ahead of the European open to slip below 20k.

Top Asian News

  • China's NDRC said macro policies should be strong, reasonable and moderate in expanding demand actively, while it will roll out practical measures to support starting up businesses and job employment, according to Reuters.
  • PBoC-backed Financial News front page report stated that China needs additional policy stimulus to increase economic growth, while Securities Times suggested the recent surprise PBoC rate cut could be the first in a series of measures to stabilise growth.
  • China is to consider issuing government-guaranteed bonds to provide liquidity to certain developers.
  • RBA Minutes from the August 2nd meeting stated the board expects to take further steps in the process of normalising monetary conditions in the months ahead, but is not on a pre-set path and seeks to do this in a way that keeps the economy on an even keel. The minutes also reiterated that members agreed it was appropriate to continue the process of normalising monetary conditions and that inflation was expected to peak later in 2022 and then decline back to the top of the 2%-3% range by the end of 2024.
  • Australian Bureau of Statistics will begin publishing a monthly CPI indicator with the first publication on October 26th to coincide with the release of the quarterly CPI data, while it added that quarterly CPI will continue to be the key measure of inflation.
  • China is reportedly to enhance policy to increase new births, will boost housing support for those with additional children, via Bloomberg.

European bourses are firmer across the board after a relatively constructive APAC handover, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.4%, though off best levels post-ZEW. US futures are in contained ranges and pivoting the unchanged mark at this point in time, ES -0.2%; HD and WMT in focus. Home Depot Inc (HD) Q1 2023 (USD): EPS 5.05 (exp. 4.94), Revenue 43.79 (exp. 43.36bln); confirms FY22 guidance.

Top European News

  • Delivery Hero Sees Path to 2023 Profit Powered by Asia Unit
  • Pandora Sells Lab-Grown Diamonds in US as Mined Ones Dropped
  • UK Real Wages are Falling at Their Fastest Pace on Record: Chart
  • Hearing Aid Makers Plunge After Sonova, Demant Cut Guidance
  • DFDS Gains on Guidance Upgrade; RBC Sees Future Growth Potential
  • Turkey Limits Resales of Newly Bought Cars by Dealers

FX

  • DXY breaches last week’s peak as Treasury yields rebound and Yuan weakens further amidst Chinese growth concerns, index up to 106.860 vs 106.810 on August 8, USD/CNY and USD/CNH approach 6.8000 and 6.8200 respectively.
  • Euro stumbles after unexpected deterioration in German ZEW economic sentiment and Pound slips following mixed UK jobs and wage data, EUR/USD down to 1.0125 and Cable low 1.2000 area.
  • Yen and Franc retreat as risk sentiment improves and bonds back off, USD/JPY tops 134.00 and USD/CHF above 0.9500.
  • Kiwi cautious ahead of RBNZ, but Aussie holds up better post-RBA minutes flagging more hikes, NZD/USD eyes bids into 0.6300 and AUD/USD hovers just under 0.7000.
  • Loonie underpinned awaiting Canadian CPI as crude prices stabilise to a degree, USD/CAD straddles 1.2900.

Fixed Income

  • Debt futures retreat further from Monday's lofty levels in corrective price action and as broad risk sentiment improves.
  • Bunds down to 156.07 having been closer to 157.00, Gilts to 116.52 vs 116.99 earlier and 117+ yesterday, T-notes to 119-19 from almost 120-00.
  • UK 2029 and German 2027 supply snapped up amidst given some yield concession.

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks pressure, but off worst levels and well within yesterday's ranges, as the EU receives Iran's response to the JCPOA draft.
  • Initial indications are that a deal is in reach, though, caveats/unknowns remain in focus - particularly the US' response.
  • EIA said US oil output from top shale regions in September is due to increase to the highest since March 2020, according to Reuters.
  • Iran sets September Iranian light crude OSP to Asia at Oman/Dubai + USD 9.50/bbl, via Reuters.
  • Major European zinc smelter (Nyrstar Budel) reportedly to shut due to elevated energy costs, via Bloomberg; will shut as of September 1st.
  • Spot gold under modest pressure as the USD lifts, but still near the 50-DMA while base metals recoup from Monday's data-driven pressure.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: July Housing Starts, est. 1.53m, prior 1.56m
    • July Housing Starts MoM, est. -2.0%, prior -2.0%
    • July Building Permits, est. 1.64m, prior 1.69m, revised 1.7m
    • July Building Permits MoM, est. -3.3%, prior -0.6%, revised 0.1%
  • 09:15: July Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.3%, prior -0.2%
    • July Capacity Utilization, est. 80.2%, prior 80.0%
    • July Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.3%, prior -0.5%

DB's Henry Allen concludes the overnight wrap

Here in the UK we’ve had quite a historic weather spell recently. Last month was the driest July in England since 1935, and a new record temperature just above 40°C was also recorded. But as this dry spell finally comes to an end, there are now weather warnings about thunderstorms over the coming days. My wife and I discovered this to our cost on our evening walk yesterday, when we hadn’t packed an umbrella and got soaked. One thing I hadn’t realised until watching the news the other day was that healthy grass actually absorbs water much quicker than parched grass – I had assumed like humans that the grass that’s been without water for days would drink it up rapidly. So while I’m not paid to give you my bad hunches on how weather works, the risk now is that the water just runs off the hard ground and leads to flooding. Let’s hope we can catch a break from this in the days ahead.

Markets were also struggling to catch a break yesterday thanks to a succession of disappointing data releases that brought the risks of a recession back into focus. That marks a shift in the dominant narrative over the last couple of weeks, when there had actually been a small but growing hope that central banks might be able to execute a soft landing, not least after the much stronger-than-expected US jobs report for July. But ultimately, a number of leading indicators are still moving in the wrong direction, and yesterday’s releases served as a reminder that hard landings have historically been the norm when starting from a position as unfavourable as the present one.

In terms of the specifics of those data releases, the more negative tone was set from the outset by the Chinese data we mentioned in yesterday’s edition, which showed that retail sales and industrial production for July had been weaker than expected by the consensus. But we then also got the Empire State manufacturing survey for August, which plunged to -31.3 (vs. 5.0 expected), thus also marking its worst performance since the GFC apart from April and May 2020 during the Covid lockdowns. Lastly, we then had the NAHB’s housing market index for August, which similarly fell to its lowest level since May 2020 at 49 (vs. 54 expected). That marked its 8th consecutive move lower, which comes against the backdrop of one of the most aggressive Fed tightening cycles in decades, with housing one of the most sensitive sectors to rate hikes.

Growing fears of a slowdown led to a decent risk-off move across multiple asset classes, but one of the places that was most evident was in oil prices, where both Brent crude (-3.11%) and WTI (-2.91%) underwent sizeable declines on the day. In fact on an intraday basis, Brent crude traded at $92.78 per barrel at its lows, which exactly matches its previous intraday low on August 5, and prior to that you’ve got to go back before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February for the last time that oil prices were trading lower. That decline in oil prices was offered further support by the latest developments on the Iran nuclear deal, where Iran sent its response to the European Union’s proposed text to revive the deal. While the specific contents of the response are unknown, it’s been reported by the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency that Iran expects a response back from the EU within the next two days, so there could be tangible progress this week. Furthermore, Iran’s foreign minister said that an agreement with the US could be reached in the coming days. That trend towards weaker oil prices has continued this morning as well, with Brent crude down a further -0.87% at $94.27/bbl, and WTI down -0.62% at $88.86/bbl.

Whilst oil prices fell back yesterday, the seemingly inexorable move higher in European natural gas continued, with futures up +6.79% on the day to €220 per megawatt-hour, which is just shy of their March peak at €227. Prices have been bolstered by the latest European heatwave, which has seen rivers dry up and caused issues with fuel transportation, further compounding the continent’s existing woes on the energy side. That gloomy backdrop saw Germany’s government announce a levy of an extra 2.419 euro cents per kilowatt hour for natural gas, which comes as policymakers are hoping that measures to reduce demand will help the continent get through the winter. Meanwhile, German and French power prices for next year rose to fresh records yesterday, rising +3.67% and +3.24% respectively.

In light of the decline in oil prices and the more general risk-off tone, sovereign bonds rallied on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday, and yields on 10yr Treasuries came down -4.3bps to 2.79%. Inflation breakevens led the bulk of that decline amidst the moves lower in commodity prices, with the 10yr breakeven down by -2.9bps, whilst the 2s10s curve (+2.1bps) remained firmly in inversion territory at -40.0bps, even as it underwent a modest steepening. For Europe there were even larger declines in yields yesterday, with those on 10yr bunds (-8.8bps), OATs (-8.1bps) and BTPs (-6.5bps) all moving lower on the day, which came as investors moved to price in a less aggressive ECB hiking cycle over the coming months, with the June 2023 implied rate down by -9.9bps on the day. In overnight trading, yields on 10yr USTs (-0.9bps) have posted a further decline to 2.78% as we write.

One asset class that didn’t fit this pattern so well were equities yesterday, as they pared back their earlier losses to move higher on the day, building on a run of 4 consecutive weekly moves higher. In the US, the S&P had opened -0.54% lower, but reversed course to end the session up +0.40%, which brings its advances from its recent low in mid-June to more than +17% now. It was a fairly broad-based advance across sectors, and the NASDAQ posted a similar +0.62% gain as well, whilst in Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.34%) also strengthened in the afternoon to post a 4th consecutive daily advance.

Those moves in US and European equities have been echoed in Asia this morning, with the Hang Seng (+0.12%), Shanghai Composite (+0.24%), CSI (+0.13%) and the Kospi (+0.31%) all edging higher in early trade. The main exception is the Nikkei (-0.08%), which has lost ground modestly after reaching a 7-month high in the previous session. That said, there are signs that equities may be losing momentum as well this morning, with futures on the S&P 500 (-0.12%) and the NASDAQ 100 (-0.12%) both pointing lower following their strong run of gains recently.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include July’s industrial production, capacity utilisation, housing starts and building permits. In the UK, there’s unemployment for June, Germany has the ZEW survey for August and Canada has July’s CPI. Elsewhere, we’ll get earnings releases from Walmart and Home Depot.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/16/2022 - 08:20

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Government

NIH awards researchers $7.5 million to create data support center for opioid use disorder and pain management research

WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. – March 24, 2023 – Researchers at Wake Forest University School of Medicine have been awarded a five-year, $7.5 million grant…

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WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. – March 24, 2023 – Researchers at Wake Forest University School of Medicine have been awarded a five-year, $7.5 million grant from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Helping End Addiction Long-term (HEAL) initiative.

Credit: Wake Forest University School of Medicine

WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. – March 24, 2023 – Researchers at Wake Forest University School of Medicine have been awarded a five-year, $7.5 million grant from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Helping End Addiction Long-term (HEAL) initiative.

The NIH HEAL initiative, which launched in 2018, was created to find scientific solutions to stem the national opioid and pain public health crises. The funding is part of the HEAL Data 2 Action (HD2A) program, designed to use real-time data to guide actions and change processes toward reducing overdoses and improving opioid use disorder treatment and pain management.

With the support of the grant, researchers will create a data infrastructure support center to assist HD2A innovation projects at other institutions across the country. These innovation projects are designed to address gaps in four areas—prevention, harm reduction, treatment of opioid use disorder and recovery support.

“Our center’s goal is to remove barriers so that solutions can be more streamlined and rapidly distributed,” said Meredith C.B. Adams, M.D., associate professor of anesthesiology, biomedical informatics, physiology and pharmacology, and public health sciences at Wake Forest University School of Medicine.

By monitoring opioid overdoses in real time, researchers will be able to identify trends and gaps in resources in local communities where services are most needed.

“We will collect and analyze data that will inform prevention and treatment services,” Adams said. “We’re shifting chronic pain and opioid care in communities to quickly offer solutions.”

The center will also develop data related resources, education and training related to substance use, pain management and the reduction of opioid overdoses.

According to the CDC, there was a 29% increase in drug overdose deaths in the U.S.  in 2020, and nearly 75% of those deaths involved an opioid.

“Given the scope of the opioid crises, which was only exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s imperative that we improve and create new prevention strategies,” Adams said. “The funding will create the infrastructure for rapid intervention.”

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International

How They Convinced Trump To Lock Down

How They Convinced Trump To Lock Down

Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via Brownstone Institute,

An enduring mystery for three years is how…

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March 24, 2023

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How They Convinced Trump To Lock Down

Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via Brownstone Institute,

An enduring mystery for three years is how Donald Trump came to be the president who shut down American society for what turned out to be a manageable respiratory virus, setting off an unspeakable crisis with waves of destructive fallout that continue to this day. 

Let’s review the timeline and offer some well-founded speculations about what happened. 

On March 9, 2020, Trump was still of the opinion that the virus could be handled by normal means. 

Two days later, he changed his tune. He was ready to use the full power of the federal government in a war on the virus. 

What changed? Deborah Birx reports in her book that Trump had a friend die in a New York hospital and this is what shifted his opinion. Jared Kushner reports that he simply listened to reason. Mike Pence says he was persuaded that his staff would respect him more. No question (and based on all existing reports) that he found himself surrounded by “trusted advisors” amounting to about 5 or so people (including Mike Pence and Pfizer board member Scott Gottlieb)

It was only a week later when Trump issued the edict to close all “indoor and outdoor venues where people congregate,” initiating the biggest regime change in US history that flew in the face of all rights and liberties Americans had previously taken for granted. It was the ultimate in political triangulation: as John F. Kennedy cut taxes, Nixon opened China, and Clinton reformed welfare, Trump shut down the economy he promised to revive. This action confounded critics on all sides. 

A month later, Trump said his decision to have “turned off” the economy saved millions of lives, later even claiming to have saved billions. He has yet to admit error. 

Even as late as June 23rd of that year, Trump was demanding credit for having followed all of Fauci’s recommendations. Why do they love him and hate me, he wanted to know. 

Something about this story has never really added up. How could one person have been so persuaded by a handful of others such as Fauci, Birx, Pence, and Kushner and his friends? He surely had other sources of information – some other scenario or intelligence – that fed into his disastrous decision. 

In one version of events, his advisors simply pointed to the supposed success of Xi Jinping in enacting lockdowns in Wuhan, which the World Health Organization claimed had stopped infections and brought the virus under control. Perhaps his advisors flattered Trump with the observation that he is at least as great as the president of China so he should be bold and enact the same policies here. 

One problem with this scenario is timing. The Oval Office meetings that preceded his March 16, 2020, edict took place the weekend of the 14th and 15th, Friday and Saturday. It was already clear by the 11th that Trump was ready for lockdowns. This was the same day as Fauci’s deliberately misleading testimony to the House Oversight Committee in which he rattled the room with predictions of Hollywood-style carnage. 

On the 12th, Trump shut all travel from Europe, the UK, and Australia, causing huge human pile-ups at international airports. On the 13th, the Department of Health and Human Services issued a classified document that transferred control of pandemic policy from the CDC to the National Security Council and eventually the Department of Homeland Security. By the time that Trump met with Fauci and Birx in that legendary weekend, the country was already under quasi-martial law. 

Isolating the date in the trajectory here, it is apparent that whatever happened to change Trump occurred on March 10, 2020, the day after his Tweet saying there should be no shutdowns and one day before Fauci’s testimony. 

That something very likely revolves around the most substantial discovery we’ve made in three years of investigations. It was Debbie Lerman who first cracked the code: Covid policy was forged not by the public-health bureaucracies but by the national-security sector of the administrative state. She has further explained that this occurred because of two critical features of the response: 1) the belief that this virus came from a lab leak, and 2) the vaccine was the biosecurity countermeasure pushed by the same people as the fix. 

Knowing this, we gain greater insight into 1) why Trump changed his mind, 2) why he has never explained this momentous decision and otherwise completely avoids the topic, and 3) why it has been so unbearably difficult to find out any information about these mysterious few days other than the pablum served up in books designed to earn royalties for authors like Birx, Pence, and Kushner. 

Based on a number of second-hand reports, all available clues we have assembled, and the context of the times, the following scenario seems most likely. On March 10, and in response to Trump’s dismissive tweet the day before, some trusted sources within and around the National Security Council (Matthew Pottinger and Michael Callahan, for example), and probably involving some from military command and others, came to Trump to let him know a highly classified secret. 

Imagine a scene from Get Smart with the Cone of Silence, for example. These are the events in the life of statecraft that infuse powerful people with a sense of their personal awesomeness. The fate of all of society rests on their shoulders and the decisions they make at this point. Of course they are sworn to intense secrecy following the great reveal. 

The revelation was that the virus was not a textbook virus but something far more threatening and terrible. It came from a research lab in Wuhan. It might in fact be a bioweapon. This is why Xi had to do extreme things to protect his people. The US should do the same, they said, and there is a fix available too and it is being carefully guarded by the military. 

It seems that the virus had already been mapped in order to make a vaccine to protect the population. Thanks to 20 years of research on mRNA platforms, they told him,  this vaccine can be rolled out in months, not years. That means that Trump can lock down and distribute vaccines to save everyone from the China virus, all in time for the election. Doing this would not only assure his reelection but guarantee that he would go down in history as one of the greatest US presidents of all time. 

This meeting might only have lasted an hour or two – and might have included a parade of people with the highest-level security clearances – but it was enough to convince Trump. After all, he had battled China for two previous years, imposing tariffs and making all sorts of threats. It was easy to believe at that point that China might have initiated biological warfare as retaliation. That’s why he made the decision to use all the power of the presidency to push a lockdown under emergency rule. 

To be sure, the Constitution does not allow him to override the discretion of the states but with the weight of the office complete with enough funding and persuasion, he could make it happen. And thus did he make the fateful decision that not only wrecked his presidency but the country too, imposing harms that will last a generation. 

It only took a few weeks for Trump to become suspicious about what happened. For weeks and months, he toggled between believing that he was tricked and believing that he did the right thing. He had already approved another 30 days of lockdowns and even inveighed against Georgia and later Florida for opening. He went so far as to claim that no state could open without his approval. 

He did not fully change his mind until August, when Scott Atlas revealed the whole con to him. 

There is another fascinating feature to this entirely plausible scenario. Even as Trump’s advisors were telling him that this could be a bioweapon leaked from the lab in China, we had Anthony Fauci and his cronies going to great lengths to deny it was a lab leak (even if they believed that it was). This created an interesting situation. The NIH and those surrounding Fauci were publicly insisting that the virus was of zoonotic origin, even as Trump’s circle was telling the president that it should be regarded as a bioweapon. 

Fauci belonged to both camps, which suggests that Trump very likely knew of Fauci’s deception all along: the “noble lie” to protect the public from knowing the truth. Trump had to be fine with that. 

Gradually following the lockdown edicts and the takeover by the Department of Homeland Security, in cooperation with a very hostile CDC, Trump lost power and influence over his own government, which is why his later Tweets urging a reopening fell on deaf ears. To top it off, the vaccine failed to arrive in time for the election. This is because Fauci himself delayed the rollout until after the election, claiming that the trials were not racially diverse enough. Thus Trump’s gambit completely failed, despite all the promises of those around him that it was a guaranteed way to win reelection.

To be sure, this scenario cannot be proven because the entire event – certainly the most dramatic political move in at least a generation and one with unspeakable costs for the country – remains cloaked in secrecy. Not even Senator Rand Paul can get the information he needs because it remains classified. If anyone thinks the Biden approval of releasing documents will show what we need, that person is naive. Still, the above scenario fits all available facts and it is confirmed by second-hand reports from inside the White House. 

It’s enough for a great movie or a play of Shakespearean levels of tragedy. And to this day, none of the main players are speaking openly about it. 

Jeffrey A. Tucker is Founder and President of the Brownstone Institute. He is also Senior Economics Columnist for Epoch Times, author of 10 books, including Liberty or Lockdown, and thousands of articles in the scholarly and popular press. He speaks widely on topics of economics, technology, social philosophy, and culture.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/24/2023 - 17:40

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Southwest Airlines Tries New Way to Solve Big Boarding Pain Point

The company has a novel way to end a practice that passengers hate.

Published

6 hours ago

on

March 24, 2023

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The company has a novel way to end a practice that passengers hate.

Southwest Airlines boards its planes in a way very different from that of any of its major rivals.

As fans and detractors of the brand know, the airline does not offer seat assignments. Instead, passengers board by group and number. When you check into your flight, Southwest assigns you to the A, B, or C boarding groups and gives you a number 1-60. The A group boards first in numerical order.

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In theory, people board in the assigned order and can claim any seat that's available. In practice, the airline's boarding process leaves a lot of gray area that some people exploit. Others simply don't know exactly what the rules are.

If, for example, you are traveling with a friend who has a much later boarding number, is it okay to save a middle seat for that person?

Generally, that's okay because middle seats are less desirable, but technically it's not allowed. In general practice, if you move into the second half of the plane, no passenger will fight for a specific middle seat, but toward the front some may claim a middle seat.

There's less grey area, however, when it comes to trying to keep people from sitting in unoccupied seats. That's a huge problem for the airline, one that Southwest has tried to address in a humorous way.

A Southwest Airlines plane is in the air. 

Image source: Shutterstock

Southwest Airlines Has a Boarding Problem

When Southwest boards its flights it generally communicates to passengers about how full it expects the plane to be. In very rare cases, the airline will tell passengers when the crowd is small and they can expect that nobody will have to sit in a middle seat.

In most cases, however, at least since air travel has recovered after the covid pandemic, the airline usually announces that the flight is full or nearly full as passengers board. That's a de facto (and sometimes explicit) call not to attempt to discourage people from taking open seats in your row.

Unfortunately, many passengers know that sometimes when the airline says a flight is full, that's not entirely true. There might be a few no shows or a few seats that end up being open for one reason or another.

That leads to passengers -- at least a few of them on nearly every flight -- going to great lengths to try to end up next to an empty seat. Southwest has tried lots of different ways to discourage this behavior and has now resorted to humor in an effort to stop the seat hogs.

Southwest Uses Humor to Address a Pain Point

The airline recently released a video that addressed what it called "discouraged but crafty strategies to get a row to yourself" on Southwest. The video shows a man demonstrating all the different ways people try to dissuade other passengers from taking the open seats in their row.

These include, but are not limited to:

  • Laying out across the whole row.   
  • Holding your arm up to sort of block the seats.
  • Being too encouraging about someone taking the seat.
  • Actually saying no when someone asks if they can have an open seat. 

The airline also detailed a scenario it called "the fake breakup," where the person in the seat holds a loud phone conversation where he pretends he's being broken up with.

That one seems a bit of a reach, especially when Southwest left the most common seat-saving tactic out of its video -- simply putting some of your stuff in the open seat to make it appear unavailable.

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