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Exploding stars

When massive stars or other stellar objects explode in the Earth’s cosmic neighborhood, ejected debris can also reach our solar system. Traces of such…

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When massive stars or other stellar objects explode in the Earth’s cosmic neighborhood, ejected debris can also reach our solar system. Traces of such events are found on Earth or the Moon and can be detected using accelerator mass spectrometry, or AMS for short. An overview of this exciting research is provided in the scientific journal Annual Review of Nuclear and Particle Science (DOI: 10.1146/annurev-nucl-011823-045541) by Prof. Anton Wallner of the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR), who soon plans to decisively advance this promising branch of research with the new, ultrasensitive AMS facility „HAMSTER.”

Credit: ANU

When massive stars or other stellar objects explode in the Earth’s cosmic neighborhood, ejected debris can also reach our solar system. Traces of such events are found on Earth or the Moon and can be detected using accelerator mass spectrometry, or AMS for short. An overview of this exciting research is provided in the scientific journal Annual Review of Nuclear and Particle Science (DOI: 10.1146/annurev-nucl-011823-045541) by Prof. Anton Wallner of the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR), who soon plans to decisively advance this promising branch of research with the new, ultrasensitive AMS facility „HAMSTER.”

In their paper, HZDR physicist Anton Wallner and colleague Prof. Brian D. Fields from the University of Illinois in Urbana, USA, provide an overview of near-Earth cosmic explosions with a particular focus on events that occurred three and, respectively, seven million years ago.

“Fortunately, these events were still far enough away, so they probably did not significantly impact the Earth’s climate or have major effects on the biosphere. However, things get really uncomfortable when cosmic explosions occur at a distance of 30 light-years or less,” Wallner explains. Converted into the astrophysical unit parsec, this corresponds to less than eight to ten parsecs.

Once massive stars have burned up all their fuel, their cores collapse into an ultra-dense neutron star or a black hole, while at the same time, hot gas is ejected outward at a high velocity. A large part of the gas and dust finely dispersed between the stars is carried away by an expanding shock wave. Like a giant balloon with bumps and dents, this envelope also sweeps up any material already present in space. After many thousands of years, the remnants of a supernova have expanded to a diameter of several 10 parsecs, spreading out ever more slowly until the motion finally ceases.

A nearby explosion has the potential to severely disrupt the Earth’s biosphere and cause a mass extinction similar to the asteroid impact 66 million years ago. The dinosaurs and many other animal species fell victim to that event. “If we consider the time period since the solar system’s formation, which spans billions of years, very close cosmic explosions cannot be ruled out,” Wallner emphasizes.

Nevertheless, supernovae only occur in very heavy stars with more than eight to ten times the mass of our sun. Such stars are rare. One of the closest candidates of this size is the red supergiant Betelgeuse in the constellation of Orion, located at a safe distance of about 150 parsecs from our solar system.

Production of interstellar isotopes

Many new atoms are generated during cosmic explosions or shortly before and during the supernova – among them also a number of radioactive atoms. Wallner is particularly interested in the radioactive iron isotope with the atomic mass of 60. About half of these isotopes, called iron-60 for short, have turned into a stable nickel isotope after 2.6 million years. Therefore, all iron-60 that was present at the Earth’s formation some 4,500 million years ago has long since disappeared.

“Iron-60 is extremely rare on Earth because, by natural means, it is not produced in any significant amount. However, it is produced in large quantities just before a supernova takes place. If this isotope now turns up in sediments from the ocean floor or in material from the surface of the moon, it probably came from a supernova or another similar process in space that has taken place near Earth only a few million years ago,” Wallner summarizes.

The same applies to the plutonium isotope with the atomic mass of 244. However, this plutonium-244 is more likely generated by the collision of neutron stars than by supernovae. Thus, it is an indicator of the nucleosynthesis of heavy elements. After a period of 80 million years, about half of the plutonium-244 isotope has turned into other elements. Therefore, the slowly decaying plutonium-244 is, in addition to iron-60, another indicator of galactic events and the production of new elements in the last millions of years.

“Exactly how often, where, and under what conditions these heavy elements are produced is currently the subject of intense scientific debate. Plutonium-244 also requires explosive events and, according to theory, is produced similarly to the elements gold or platinum, which have always occurred naturally on Earth but consist of stable atoms today,” Wallner explains.

Dust particles as cosmic cargo vessels

But how do these isotopes get to Earth in the first place? The iron-60 atoms ejected by the supernova like to congregate in dust particles. So do the plutonium-244 isotopes, which were possibly created in other events and swept up by the supernova’s expanding envelope. After cosmic explosions at a distance of more than ten but less than 150 parsecs, according to theory, the solar wind and the magnetic field of the heliosphere prevent individual atoms from reaching the Earth. However, the iron-60 and plutonium-244 atoms trapped in dust particles continue to fly toward the Earth and the Moon, where they can eventually trickle down to the surface.

Even with a supernova occurring within the so-called “kill radius” of less than ten parsecs, not even a microgram of matter from the envelope will land on each square centimeter. In fact, only very few iron-60 atoms per square centimeter reach the Earth each year. This poses an enormous challenge to “investigators” like physicist Anton Wallner: Within a one-gram sediment sample, perhaps a few thousand iron-60 atoms are distributed like needles in a haystack among billions times billions of the ubiquitous and stable iron atoms with the atomic mass of 56. On top of that, even the most sensitive measurement method may only detect every five thousandth particle, i.e., a maximum of only a few iron-60 atoms in a typical measurement sample.

Such extremely low concentrations can only be determined with Accelerator Mass Spectrometry, short AMS. One of these facilities, the Dresden AMS (DREAMS), is located at the HZDR, soon to be joined by the Helmholtz Accelerator Mass Spectrometer Tracing Environmental Radionuclides (HAMSTER). Since AMS facilities around the globe are designed differently, the various facilities can complement each other in the search for rare isotopes from supernova explosions.

20 years for just one thousand iron-60 atoms

Isotopes of the same element but with a different mass, like the naturally occurring iron-56, are removed with mass filters. Atoms of other elements with the same mass as the target object iron-60, for example, the naturally occurring nickel-60, also interfere. Even after very complex chemical preparation of the samples, they are still billions of times more abundant than iron-60 and must be separated in a special accelerator facility using nuclear physics methods.

In the end, perhaps five individual iron-60 atoms are identified in a measuring process that lasts several hours. Pioneering work on iron-60 detection was conducted at TU Munich. Presently, however, Canberra at the Australian National University is the only existing facility worldwide that is sensitive enough to perform such measurements.

In total, only about one thousand iron-60 atoms have been measured in the past 20 years. For the interstellar plutonium-244, which occurs in concentrations more than 10,000 times lower, only data for individual atoms were available for a long time. Only recently has it been possible to determine about a hundred plutonium-244 atoms at a specialized infrastructure in Sydney – similar to the HAMSTER facility currently under development at the HZDR.

However, only certain samples are suitable for investigation, which act as archives to preserve these atoms coming from space for millions of years. Samples from the Earth’s surface, for example, are rapidly “diluted” by geological processes. Sediments and crusts from the deep sea, which slowly form undisturbed on the ocean floor, are ideal. Alternatively, samples from the lunar surface are suitable because disruptive processes are hardly a problem.

On a research trip until the beginning of November 2023, Wallner and his colleagues will hunt for further cosmic isotopes at particularly suitable AMS facilities in the Australian cities of Canberra (iron-60) and Sydney (plutonium-244). For this purpose, he has received a number of lunar samples from the U.S. space agency NASA.

“Parallel measurements are also taking place at HZDR. These unique samples will allow us to gain new insights into supernova explosions near Earth, but also into the heaviest elements in our galaxy which are formed through these and other processes,” Wallner is certain.


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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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