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Euroclear group delivers another record year

Euroclear group delivers another record year
Canada NewsWire
BRUSSELS, Feb. 8, 2023

Continued strategic progress while navigating an exceptional operating environment
BRUSSELS, Feb. 8, 2023 /CNW/ — Results for the Year Ending 31 December 2022
High…

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Euroclear group delivers another record year

Canada NewsWire

Continued strategic progress while navigating an exceptional operating environment

BRUSSELS, Feb. 8, 2023 /CNW/ -- Results for the Year Ending 31 December 2022

Highlights

Record performance in an exceptional operating environment

  • Euroclear delivered a record business and financial performance in 2022, demonstrating its resilience against a challenging backdrop.
  • In 2022, both equity and fixed-income valuations declined for the first time since 1969, with high levels of volatility, lower equity volumes, and lower funds market performance.
  • High levels of inflation led to rising interest rates across major international markets and increased expense levels.

New strategic vision with ambitious targets to grow stakeholder value

  • Euroclear defined its corporate purpose as: "We innovate to bring safety, efficiency, and connections to financial markets for sustainable economic growth." 
  • Set out a long-term vision to become a digital and data-enabled financial market infrastructure: an open, shared platform providing services to all market players.
  • Launched a new strategy with core client focus, while further developing ESG, data and digital capabilities, as well as expanding global business.
  • Strategy is expected to further diversify the business model and generate value for clients, employees, shareholders, and society.

Strong underlying business and financial performance

  • Business income (which is the income generated by fees) grew by 5% to EUR 1,607 million reflecting the resilience of the subscription-like model. Rising interest rates enhanced revenues generated through interest income, adding to the resilience of the model. Excluding earnings related to Russia sanctions, interest income rose by 289% to EUR 348 million.
  • Total operating income grew by 21% underlying to EUR 1,955 million.
  • Underlying operating expenses increased by 15% to EUR 1,133 million, reflecting inflationary pressures and increased investment to both implement the strategy and increase further business resilience.

Implications of sanctions related to Russian invasion of Ukraine

  • Resulted in market-wide application of international sanctions related to Russia, and as a financial market infrastructure Euroclear complied with those sanctions.
  • Co-operating with clients and other involved stakeholders to address market challenges that Russian countermeasures continue to impose.
  • Despite a material growth in Euroclear Bank's balance sheet and additional interest income, normal business operations have been maintained.
  • Euroclear remains prudent in its management of the sanctions and their implications. Russia sanction-related earnings are segregated from underlying performance and are not distributed while uncertainties persist.

Growing shareholder returns through underlying business performance

  • Underlying EPS increased by 30% to EUR 191.7 per share, reflecting growth in net profit after adjusting for results related to the implementation of international sanctions.
  • Proposed dividend per share of EUR 115.5, increased by 31%, maintaining the payout ratio at 60% of the underlying earnings, in line with last year.

Financial summary

Euroclear delivered a record financial performance in 2022. The underlying results benefited from continued delivery on the group's strategy and its diversified, resilient business model.

The group also reported higher interest earnings due to rising interest rates on cash balances. Cash balances increased materially as a consequence of the international sanctions on Russia.

Full year 2022 net profit increased 162% to EUR 1,201 million, of which EUR 603 million resulted from the underlying business performance.

 

 

Euroclear Holding
























(€ m)


FY 2021


FY 2022


Russian
sanctions
impacts


FY 2022
Underlying


Underlying
vs 2021













Operating income


1,615


2,769


814


1,955


340

21 %

Business income


1,525


1,600


-7


1,607


82

5 %

Interest, banking & other income


90


1,170


821


348


259

289 %













Operating expenses


-988


-1,152


-20


-1,133


-145

-15 %













Operating profit before Impairment


627


1,617


795


823


195

31 %







-1






Impairment


-16


-12


-1


-12


4


Pre tax profit


611


1,605


794


811


199

33 %

Tax


-153


-405


-197


-207


-55

-36 %

Net profit


458


1,201


597


603


145

32 %

























EPS


147.0


381.4




191.7
















Business income operating margin


35.2 %


28.0 %




29.5 %
















EBITDA margin (EBITDA/oper.income)


45.6 %


62.3 %




47.7 %
















Note: 2021 figures (except for EPS) have been restated to include MFEX pro forma, in order to allow like-for-like comparison.













 

Year-to-date operating income was up 71% year-on-year to EUR 2,769 million, of which EUR 1,955 million related to the underlying business performance.

An increase of 159% in earnings per share to EUR 381.4 per share, reflected the increase in net profit. On an underlying basis, earnings per share grew to EUR 191.7.

The group maintains a strong capital position and a low-risk profile, which are critical as a financial market infrastructure and create headroom for further growth. 

2022 Operating Environment

In 2022 financial markets experienced negative returns from both equities and fixed income for the first time in over 50 years. Equity markets were characterised by higher levels of volatility and lower traded volumes. The funds industry was also affected by the fall in value of the underlying assets.

The fragile external context, already impacted by the pandemic over the previous two years, was further impacted by rising geopolitical tensions. Most notably, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia led to a raft of international sanctions being imposed on capital market entities and individuals.

Inflation increased across international economies, with central banks responding by raising interest rates throughout the year.

The consequence of the operating environment is shown below in the group's key operating metrics.


FY 2022

% change vs FY 2021

Assets under Custody

EUR 35.6 trillion

-6 %

Number of transactions

304 million

+3 %

Turnover (Value of transactions processed)

EUR 1,066 trillion

+7 %

Fund assets under custody

EUR 2.8 trillion

-11 %

Collateral Highway

EUR 1.8 trillion

-7 %

 

Progressing on our new strategic vision to grow stakeholder value

In 2022, management and the Board defined Euroclear's corporate purpose, an ambitious long-term vision and a five-year business strategy. Euroclear's purpose to innovate to bring safety, efficiency, and connections to financial markets for sustainable economic growth, combined with its culture and values, underpins the long-term aspiration to become a digital and data-enabled financial market infrastructure.

To realise this vision, Euroclear will continue to build an open, shared platform providing a catalogue of services to all market stakeholders and complemented by third parties.  Euroclear's aim is to evolve the current market model to provide efficiencies that deliver more client value, building on previous successes in collateral and funds.

Through its strategy, the group will continue to focus on meeting the evolving needs of all financial market participants from issuers to investors. In addition, Euroclear will increase its focus on ESG, data-driven and digital innovations and expanding its global reach.

The strategy will be enabled by Euroclear's people and its technology, with increased investments ongoing to extend the group's capabilities, with a particular focus on strengthening and modernising the group's technology.

In addition, greater emphasis is placed on M&A to accelerate the strategy and to provide enhanced capabilities to the group's service offering. Several steps have been taken through the course of 2022 to rollout the M&A strategy, including the investments in Greenomy, Impact Cubed, Fnality and Goji as well as the ongoing integration of MFEX. The Goji acquisition is novel, as it is the first time Euroclear will be operating in the digitalisation of private assets space, in effect a new asset class in its books.

The integration of MFEX remains on track despite the challenging external context for the funds industry given lower equity, fixed-income and fund valuations. The combination of MFEX with the existing Euroclear funds business, and alternative investments through Goji, provides a compelling vision for a comprehensive end-to-end funds offering.

Ambitious metrics have been outlined to measure the implementation of the strategy over the next five years. The strategy is expected to further diversify the business model and generate value for clients, employees, shareholders, and society, in line with Euroclear's corporate purpose.

Underlying Business Performance

Excluding the impact of the Russian sanctions, Euroclear's underlying business continues to perform strongly. Adjusted net profit rose by 32% to EUR 603 million.

Business income was up 5% to EUR 1,607 million, reflecting continued growth of Euroclear's business lines.

The diversification of our business provided a hedge against market volatility. The impact of lower equity markets is mitigated by the group's diversified and subscription-like business model. Approximately three quarters of the group's business income is decoupled from financial market valuations.

In addition, interest, banking and other income increased by 289% to EUR 348 million on an underlying basis, benefitting from rising interest rates.   

Underlying operating expenses increased to EUR 1,133 million, up 15% compared to the prior year, partly due to inflation on costs but also as Euroclear continued to invest in its technology and service offering. As well as enhancing Euroclear's client proposition and resilience, the investments in Euroclear's technology are expected to increase efficiency through standardisation and modernisation.

Inflationary pressures on costs, as well as the broader impact of the macro-economic environment, are monitored at the level of each of operating entity. Only Euroclear Bank benefits directly from the compensating effect of higher interest rates.

Euroclear continues to expect expenditure to remain above its "through-the-cycle" target of 4-6% p.a. in 2023, due to accelerating investment in both its strategy and the resilience of the business, coupled with continued inflationary pressures on the cost base. However, profitability is expected to rise as inflation headwinds are more than offset by higher net interest income from subsequent rate increases.  

Implications of Russian sanctions

Russia's invasion of Ukraine resulted in market-wide application of international sanctions, which had a material impact on Euroclear's financial market infrastructure.

As a regulated entity with a critical role in the operation of global financial markets, Euroclear takes its responsibility of complying with sanctions very seriously. Well established processes are in place which have allowed the group to implement the sanctions while maintaining the normal course of business.

There is, however, additional complexity because the package of sanctions is wide-ranging and, moreover, Russia does not recognise the international sanctions and has implemented its own economic countermeasures. Euroclear maintains regular dialogue with clients and other impacted stakeholders in managing the market issues and implication of Russian countermeasures.

The international sanctions and Russian countermeasures resulted in a loss of activities from sanctioned clients and Russian securities which impacted business income. It is more than offset by increased interest income.  

The cash on the balance sheet has increased as blocked coupon payments and redemptions accumulate. At the end of December 2022, Euroclear Bank's balance sheet increased by EUR 99 billion year-on-year to a total of EUR 124 billion.

As per Euroclear's standard process, which is the same for any client's long cash balances, the cash balances arising from the sanctions are invested to minimise credit risk. Over 2022, interest arising on cash balances from Russia-sanctioned assets was EUR 821 million

Future earnings linked to the sanctions will continue to depend on the prevailing interest rate environment and the evolution of the sanctions. The Board expects interest income to continue to grow as blocked payments and redemptions continue to accumulate, albeit at a slower pace during 2023.

As previously outlined, while the Russian sanctions materially impact the balance sheet, the impact on the group's capital ratios is not expected to be significant. Euroclear maintains a strong capital position.

The nature of the activities undertaken as a financial market infrastructure has led various parties to contest the sanctions and countermeasures, as well as their application, with legal proceedings ongoing in both the European Union and Russia. While not presently considered a material risk and having limited financial impact, the probability has increased that financial impacts arise, which may result in a possible post balance sheet event. As such, the Board considers it necessary to separate the sanction-related earnings from the underlying financial results when assessing the company's performance and resources.

The Board recognises that the unexpected profit should be managed prudently, in line with its corporate purpose and considering its responsibilities towards stakeholders and society, as well as a more uncertain risk environment.  Euroclear continues to act in a transparent manner with all authorities involved. The Board will continue to act cautiously by not distributing any profits related to the Russian sanctions until the situation becomes clearer.

Responsibility to our people and society

The newly articulated corporate purpose and strategy recognises Euroclear's responsibilities to its communities and society. Management and the Board would like to thank colleagues for the way in which they responded to the challenges of the past year, while also adapting to a new hybrid way of working.  

Having established a group sustainability office in 2021, this year Euroclear set out a pathway to reach its net zero science-based targets. This includes setting near term 2030 goals to cut absolute Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions by 55%, from a 2019 base year.

Shareholder returns

The Board considers the core of the group's performance to be the underlying business performance and shareholder returns are assessed on this basis. 

Underlying EPS increased by 30% to 191.7 per share, reflecting growth in net profit after adjusting for results related to the implementation of international sanctions.

The Board signals its intention to pay dividend per share to EUR 115.5 in the third quarter. This represents an increase of 31% and maintains the payout ratio at 60% of the underlying earnings, in line with last year.

Commenting on the results

Lieve Mostrey, Chief Executive Officer, Euroclear

"Throughout 2022, Euroclear has continued to innovate to bring safety, efficiency and connections to the financial markets for sustainable economic growth.

I would like to extend my gratitude to our people, together with our clients and partners, for their continued efforts in navigating the extraordinary circumstances that we faced last year. Our business has once again demonstrated its robust model, internal structures and processes, and agility when facing new challenges.  

Looking forward, I am encouraged by the progress already made in implementing our new business strategy, which gives us confidence as we strive towards our long-term aim to become a digital and data-enabled financial market infrastructure."

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SOURCE Euroclear

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Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more

New Zillow research suggests the spring home shopping season may see a second wave this summer if mortgage rates fall
The post Homes listed for sale in…

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  • A Zillow analysis of 2023 home sales finds homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more. 
  • The best time to list a home for sale is a month later than it was in 2019, likely driven by mortgage rates.
  • The best time to list can be as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York and Philadelphia. 

Spring home sellers looking to maximize their sale price may want to wait it out and list their home for sale in the first half of June. A new Zillow® analysis of 2023 sales found that homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more, a $7,700 boost on a typical U.S. home.  

The best time to list consistently had been early May in the years leading up to the pandemic. The shift to June suggests mortgage rates are strongly influencing demand on top of the usual seasonality that brings buyers to the market in the spring. This home-shopping season is poised to follow a similar pattern as that in 2023, with the potential for a second wave if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates midyear or later. 

The 2.3% sale price premium registered last June followed the first spring in more than 15 years with mortgage rates over 6% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. The high rates put home buyers on the back foot, and as rates continued upward through May, they were still reassessing and less likely to bid boldly. In June, however, rates pulled back a little from 6.79% to 6.67%, which likely presented an opportunity for determined buyers heading into summer. More buyers understood their market position and could afford to transact, boosting competition and sale prices.

The old logic was that sellers could earn a premium by listing in late spring, when search activity hit its peak. Now, with persistently low inventory, mortgage rate fluctuations make their own seasonality. First-time home buyers who are on the edge of qualifying for a home loan may dip in and out of the market, depending on what’s happening with rates. It is almost certain the Federal Reserve will push back any interest-rate cuts to mid-2024 at the earliest. If mortgage rates follow, that could bring another surge of buyers later this year.

Mortgage rates have been impacting affordability and sale prices since they began rising rapidly two years ago. In 2022, sellers nationwide saw the highest sale premium when they listed their home in late March, right before rates barreled past 5% and continued climbing. 

Zillow’s research finds the best time to list can vary widely by metropolitan area. In 2023, it was as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York. Thirty of the top 35 largest metro areas saw for-sale listings command the highest sale prices between May and early July last year. 

Zillow also found a wide range in the sale price premiums associated with homes listed during those peak periods. At the hottest time of the year in San Jose, homes sold for 5.5% more, a $88,000 boost on a typical home. Meanwhile, homes in San Antonio sold for 1.9% more during that same time period.  

 

Metropolitan Area Best Time to List Price Premium Dollar Boost
United States First half of June 2.3% $7,700
New York, NY First half of July 2.4% $15,500
Los Angeles, CA First half of May 4.1% $39,300
Chicago, IL First half of June 2.8% $8,800
Dallas, TX First half of June 2.5% $9,200
Houston, TX Second half of April 2.0% $6,200
Washington, DC Second half of June 2.2% $12,700
Philadelphia, PA First half of July 2.4% $8,200
Miami, FL First half of June 2.3% $12,900
Atlanta, GA Second half of June 2.3% $8,700
Boston, MA Second half of May 3.5% $23,600
Phoenix, AZ First half of June 3.2% $14,700
San Francisco, CA Second half of February 4.2% $50,300
Riverside, CA First half of May 2.7% $15,600
Detroit, MI First half of July 3.3% $7,900
Seattle, WA First half of June 4.3% $31,500
Minneapolis, MN Second half of May 3.7% $13,400
San Diego, CA Second half of April 3.1% $29,600
Tampa, FL Second half of June 2.1% $8,000
Denver, CO Second half of May 2.9% $16,900
Baltimore, MD First half of July 2.2% $8,200
St. Louis, MO First half of June 2.9% $7,000
Orlando, FL First half of June 2.2% $8,700
Charlotte, NC Second half of May 3.0% $11,000
San Antonio, TX First half of June 1.9% $5,400
Portland, OR Second half of April 2.6% $14,300
Sacramento, CA First half of June 3.2% $17,900
Pittsburgh, PA Second half of June 2.3% $4,700
Cincinnati, OH Second half of April 2.7% $7,500
Austin, TX Second half of May 2.8% $12,600
Las Vegas, NV First half of June 3.4% $14,600
Kansas City, MO Second half of May 2.5% $7,300
Columbus, OH Second half of June 3.3% $10,400
Indianapolis, IN First half of July 3.0% $8,100
Cleveland, OH First half of July  3.4% $7,400
San Jose, CA First half of June 5.5% $88,400

 

The post Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more appeared first on Zillow Research.

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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