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Dollar Wrecking Ball, Good or Bad for Bitcoin?

As Bitcoin builds support in a range and looks to break out on bullish fundamentals, the recent dollar rally might derail the momentum. That, as well as…

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The below is an excerpt from a recent edition of Bitcoin Magazine Pro, Bitcoin Magazine's premium markets newsletter. To be among the first to receive these insights and other on-chain bitcoin market analysis straight to your inbox, subscribe now.

Bitcoin Building Massive Support Range

Bitcoin is stuck between strong support and resistance. Breaking out of this range, up or down, will be difficult, minus a surprise ETF approval. While we’ve been in this range for six months, fundamentals have continued to improve. For instance, the number of bitcoin addresses with >1 btc continues to grow, nearly 30% of bitcoin’s supply hasn’t moved in 5+ years, asset allocators with a total of >$17 trillion in assets under management have applied for bitcoin spot ETFs, bitcoin continues to come off exchanges, and the halving is coming. Price will eventually break the resistance and this range will then become massive support.

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On the daily chart below, we see $25,000 held firm as resistance becomes support. This week price is attempting to break out from under the 200-day moving average.

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Bitcoin’s daily Relative Strength Index (RSI), an extremely popular momentum indicator, is safely above the 50-level midline which is a required sign to start a new bullish trend. Also, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has managed to stay above the signal line in a bullish stance. Importantly, both these widely used indicators are in bullish agreement for the first time since June.

Note on technical analysis: It is our view that technical analysis is a series of Schelling points. These are prices or indicators “people tend to choose by default in the absence of communication.” Meaning, they are things on the chart traders and investors are watching.

The Dollar Rally: Good or Bad News for Bitcoin?

The dollar wrecking ball is threatening to come back. The dollar index (DXY) broke out of its downward trend in mid-August, back-tested and is currently rallying into the 38.2 fib retracement level. This is a strong move contrary to the almost universal bearish dollar thesis, but has now reached a logical place for consolidation.

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It is not surprising that the dollar is rallying as recessions in Europe and China are squeezing the market’s ability to service existing dollar debt or access new dollar debt. In this environment, we should also expect interest rates to fall as money moves into more safe and liquid assets.

US Treasury yields can’t defy the strong move in the dollar for long. Milton Friedman’s Interest Rate Fallacy tells us that rates fall as money is tight, not loose. The dollar rising is a rock solid indication that money is tight, therefore, we should expect rates to fall.

Typically, a strong dollar is seen as negative for bitcoin, but in bitcoin’s history the correlation coefficient with the Dollar Index (DXY) has been positive many times. In 2016, it even reached 0.93. In fact, prior to COVID, it could be argued, bitcoin and DXY were as often positively correlated as not.

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The Correlation Coefficient does tend to be more negative than positive in recent years, however, in bull market breakouts it usually swings positive. For instance, 2016 was dominated by a relatively positive correlation as the bull market was getting started. Then, again in the first half of 2019, as bitcoin entered an early bull market before COVID, it was positively correlated with DXY.

The negative correlation only begins to dominate after March 2020, coinciding with a high Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is particularly interesting because Bitcoin’s fixed supply is a hedge against inflation. No-coiners have pounced on this mismatch, during high CPI bitcoin performed badly. The explanation is easy but uncomfortable for most bitcoiners, CPI acceleration came, not from inflation (money printing) but mainly from supply chain disruptions and artificially stimulated demand from fiscal spending.

FOMC Meeting Preview

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is meeting this week and it is a safe bet that they will pause. They do not like to surprise the market, and the market is in universal agreement of no hike. The Fed Rate Monitor Tool on Investing.com is a good place to bookmark. It uses Fed Funds futures to imply what the market thinks.

Source: Investing.com

The Fed Fund futures curve has started to move upward for next year, meaning the market is pricing in fewer cuts, but not moving significantly higher on the short end. This tells us the market thinks the Fed is most likely done, and rate cuts will start sometime next year.

The curve is slowly moving higher, pricing in later and later cuts to the Fed Funds target range.

Source: Forexlive.com

According to the Fed Rate Monitor Tool, a cut to 500-525 basis points (bps) becomes the most likely scenario by June 2024, and by the November 2024 FOMC meeting (US election time), the Fed Funds target will be 450-475 bps, so 3 cuts.

Surprisingly, the markets are in agreement with the Fed’s own dot plots. Neither see a recession but do imply a slow down coming. This is a serious signal and should be considered the base case as of now. That is bullish for risk assets including bitcoin through the halving season.

Source: Federal Reserve

However, we know the Fed never sees a recession coming, and tends to react rapidly when it arrives. Take Chairman Powell’s 2019 pivot. Rates were naturally falling implying money was getting tighter. He responded with three sympathetic cuts, but when COVID hit he slashed to zero. That same pattern seems to be implied by the futures market.

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When the financial system seizes up, the Fed will be forced to slash rates. These events tend to congregate around the end of Q3 and Q1. For example, the banking crisis this year was around the end of Q1. We have some evidence that recession in the US will be avoided out to Q3 of 2024, leaving bitcoin time to run through the halving and a likely spot ETF approval.

*Note: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This article is not intended as financial advice.

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One city held a mass passport-getting event

A New Orleans congressman organized a way for people to apply for their passports en masse.

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While the number of Americans who do not have a passport has dropped steadily from more than 80% in 1990 to just over 50% now, a lack of knowledge around passport requirements still keeps a significant portion of the population away from international travel.

Over the four years that passed since the start of covid-19, passport offices have also been dealing with significant backlog due to the high numbers of people who were looking to get a passport post-pandemic. 

Related: Here is why it is (still) taking forever to get a passport

To deal with these concurrent issues, the U.S. State Department recently held a mass passport-getting event in the city of New Orleans. Called the "Passport Acceptance Event," the gathering was held at a local auditorium and invited residents of Louisiana’s 2nd Congressional District to complete a passport application on-site with the help of staff and government workers.

A passport case shows the seal featured on American passports.

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'Come apply for your passport, no appointment is required'

"Hey #LA02," Rep. Troy A. Carter Sr. (D-LA), whose office co-hosted the event alongside the city of New Orleans, wrote to his followers on Instagram  (META) . "My office is providing passport services at our #PassportAcceptance event. Come apply for your passport, no appointment is required."

More Travel:

The event was held on March 14 from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. While it was designed for those who are already eligible for U.S. citizenship rather than as a way to help non-citizens with immigration questions, it helped those completing the application for the first time fill out forms and make sure they have the photographs and identity documents they need. The passport offices in New Orleans where one would normally have to bring already-completed forms have also been dealing with lines and would require one to book spots weeks in advance.

These are the countries with the highest-ranking passports in 2024

According to Carter Sr.'s communications team, those who submitted their passport application at the event also received expedited processing of two to three weeks (according to the State Department's website, times for regular processing are currently six to eight weeks).

While Carter Sr.'s office has not released the numbers of people who applied for a passport on March 14, photos from the event show that many took advantage of the opportunity to apply for a passport in a group setting and get expedited processing.

Every couple of months, a new ranking agency puts together a list of the most and least powerful passports in the world based on factors such as visa-free travel and opportunities for cross-border business.

In January, global citizenship and financial advisory firm Arton Capital identified United Arab Emirates as having the most powerful passport in 2024. While the United States topped the list of one such ranking in 2014, worsening relations with a number of countries as well as stricter immigration rules even as other countries have taken strides to create opportunities for investors and digital nomads caused the American passport to slip in recent years.

A UAE passport grants holders visa-free or visa-on-arrival access to 180 of the world’s 198 countries (this calculation includes disputed territories such as Kosovo and Western Sahara) while Americans currently have the same access to 151 countries.

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Fast-food chain closes restaurants after Chapter 11 bankruptcy

Several major fast-food chains recently have struggled to keep restaurants open.

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Competition in the fast-food space has been brutal as operators deal with inflation, consumers who are worried about the economy and their jobs and, in recent months, the falling cost of eating at home. 

Add in that many fast-food chains took on more debt during the covid pandemic and that labor costs are rising, and you have a perfect storm of problems. 

It's a situation where Restaurant Brands International (QSR) has suffered as much as any company.  

Related: Wendy's menu drops a fan favorite item, adds something new

Three major Burger King franchise operators filed for bankruptcy in 2023, and the chain saw hundreds of stores close. It also saw multiple Popeyes franchisees move into bankruptcy, with dozens of locations closing.

RBI also stepped in and purchased one of its key franchisees.

"Carrols is the largest Burger King franchisee in the United States today, operating 1,022 Burger King restaurants in 23 states that generated approximately $1.8 billion of system sales during the 12 months ended Sept. 30, 2023," RBI said in a news release. Carrols also owns and operates 60 Popeyes restaurants in six states." 

The multichain company made the move after two of its large franchisees, Premier Kings and Meridian, saw multiple locations not purchased when they reached auction after Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings. In that case, RBI bought select locations but allowed others to close.

Burger King lost hundreds of restaurants in 2023.

Image source: Chen Jianli/Xinhua via Getty

Another fast-food chain faces bankruptcy problems

Bojangles may not be as big a name as Burger King or Popeye's, but it's a popular chain with more than 800 restaurants in eight states.

"Bojangles is a Carolina-born restaurant chain specializing in craveable Southern chicken, biscuits and tea made fresh daily from real recipes, and with a friendly smile," the chain says on its website. "Founded in 1977 as a single location in Charlotte, our beloved brand continues to grow nationwide."

Like RBI, Bojangles uses a franchise model, which makes it dependent on the financial health of its operators. The company ultimately saw all its Maryland locations close due to the financial situation of one of its franchisees.

Unlike. RBI, Bojangles is not public — it was taken private by Durational Capital Management LP and Jordan Co. in 2018 — which means the company does not disclose its financial information to the public. 

That makes it hard to know whether overall softness for the brand contributed to the chain seeing its five Maryland locations after a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing.

Bojangles has a messy bankruptcy situation

Even though the locations still appear on the Bojangles website, they have been shuttered since late 2023. The locations were operated by Salim Kakakhail and Yavir Akbar Durranni. The partners operated under a variety of LLCs, including ABS Network, according to local news channel WUSA9

The station reported that the owners face a state investigation over complaints of wage theft and fraudulent W2s. In November Durranni and ABS Network filed for bankruptcy in New Jersey, WUSA9 reported.

"Not only do former employees say these men owe them money, WUSA9 learned the former owners owe the state, too, and have over $69,000 in back property taxes."

Former employees also say that the restaurant would regularly purchase fried chicken from Popeyes and Safeway when it ran out in their stores, the station reported. 

Bojangles sent the station a comment on the situation.

"The franchisee is no longer in the Bojangles system," the company said. "However, it is important to note in your coverage that franchisees are independent business owners who are licensed to operate a brand but have autonomy over many aspects of their business, including hiring employees and payroll responsibilities."

Kakakhail and Durranni did not respond to multiple requests for comment from WUSA9.

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Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in February

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in February after declining 0.5 percent in January. In February, the output of manufacturing rose 0.8 percent and the index for mining climbed 2.2 p…

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From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in February after declining 0.5 percent in January. In February, the output of manufacturing rose 0.8 percent and the index for mining climbed 2.2 percent. Both gains partly reflected recoveries from weather-related declines in January. The index for utilities fell 7.5 percent in February because of warmer-than-typical temperatures. At 102.3 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in February was 0.2 percent below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector remained at 78.3 percent in February, a rate that is 1.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average.
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Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Capacity utilization at 78.3% is 1.3% below the average from 1972 to 2022.  This was below consensus expectations.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.


Industrial Production The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased to 102.3. This is above the pre-pandemic level.

Industrial production was above consensus expectations.

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