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Crypto VC: Risk and investment strategies with Shima Capital

Cointelegraph sits down with venture capital leaders in a new series to talk about which investments interest them most.
Venture capital…

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Cointelegraph sits down with venture capital leaders in a new series to talk about which investments interest them most.

Venture capital has been a key driver for myriad startups in the blockchain space. Founders know how competitive it can be to secure valuable VC funding that can keep the lights on and employees paid during the critical first days of a new project.

In a new interview series, Cointelegraph sits down with executives at some of the most active funds investing in the crypto space to understand their perspectives, hear their successes and failures, and know what gets them excited about a new project in the Web3 space.

This week, Cointelegraph spoke with Shima Capital’s founder and managing general partner, Yida Gao. He founded Shima Capital in 2021, and the fund has since been very active, investing in nearly 100 projects. Gao is also an adjunct professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Cointelegraph: Shima Capital was founded relatively recently, yet the firm has already invested in some of the most prominent projects in the crypto industry. As of now, which investment would you consider to be the most successful?

Yida Gao: This feels like asking a parent to choose their favorite child! I would say it’s still too early to make that call, as you alluded to. We definitely have a few that have performed pretty well and attracted good traction, such as Wombat Exchange, Berachain, Magna, Monad Network, etc. We’ve also incubated several projects that we will announce soon. For now, we’re proud of all the portfolio companies for pushing through this continuing bear market. So, the fact that they’re still standing means they’ve successfully navigated one of the toughest situations they’ll ever face.

CT: Who were your initial investors, and how did you persuade them to invest in such a high-risk industry?

YG: Although some of our own investors were named in earlier announcements, we’ve since taken a more personable approach and prefer to respect their privacy. That said, I’ve been in the finance and venture space for a decade, so I have a track record in both traditional and Web3 investing. I believe having navigated through the ups and downs in terms of the market and market sentiment played a key role in gaining the trust of some of the most successful investors in the world.

CT: In the early days of Shima Capital, how did you attract your deal flow?

YG: Although Shima Capital itself was new, and still is to a degree, I — having been around the space since 2015 — have tried to build a strong global network and reputation in the industry. Additionally, we have a world-class team at Shima who individually bring additional credibility and esteem to our fund. Our motto of “running through walls for our founders” seems to help attract deal flow as well.

About the industry

CT: Given the recent volatility in the crypto market and high-profile cases involving companies like Celsius, 3AC, Alameda Research and FTX, how do you justify the risks to your investors?

YG: Most of our investors have been investing in Web3 and crypto for a while and are well aware of the risks involved in this industry — or any other industry, for that matter. We maintain quarterly regular updates to our investors and have frequent emails, messages or calls with them too. We believe that this is more about building up relationships and trust, and I work hard myself and as Shima Capital to maintain strong relationships and build lasting trust with everyone we work with.

CT: FTX was considered to be an industry blue chip for some time, but recent events have raised questions about the need for regulations. In your view, what kind of regulations could prevent such scenarios as happened to FTX, Alameda and 3AC from happening in the future?

YG: We invest in projects we believe to be upstanding and responsible, with or without official regulations. For Shima Capital itself, we are registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and work daily to maintain SEC compliance. It’s debatable whether regulations could have prevented the aforementioned scenarios, but as long as we continue working in good faith to all stakeholders, our industry will not just survive but thrive.

CT: What is your vision for the ideal consensus between the crypto community and governments? Moreover, how will the potential tightening of U.S. regulations impact the development of the industry?

YG: As I mentioned previously, there can be a friendly co-existence between regulators and the Web3 industry/community at large. As long as we all strive to act responsibly and regulations do not become too restrictive, the industry will continue its rapid, innovative development.

Recent: Bitcoin ETF applications: Who is filing and when the SEC may decide

CT: One of the biggest challenges for the crypto industry is the lack of mainstream use cases. For many people, this industry is still synonymous with illicit activities such as money laundering and terrorism financing. What do you think needs to happen to change this perception?

YG: I think we’re already making major headways in this regard. Decentralized finance has advanced a lot in the past few years, and the infrastructure has also made progress to support smoother user experiences. We have also been tracking projects in the gaming and consumer verticals. This can mean a lot of things to different people, but essentially, it’s about providing digital property rights access to all and owning your assets, like playable characters, for instance. As more and more well-known non-crypto brands join Web3 in some capacity, it brings more credibility.

CT: Are NFTs a thing of the past, or do you anticipate their evolution into something new? What, in your opinion, is the next big thing?

YG: Like any other “hot new thing,” there can be ups and downs throughout the lifecycle. For NFTs, we’re already seeing an uptick in NFT volume since then, and more and more mainstream brands are coming on board. Recent developments are skewing more toward NFT financialization, or NFTFi, which is another sector we have been focusing on. We believe that NFTs could maintain this rejuvenated momentum and regain popularity. But to open it up to additional verticals, we see real-world assets, or RWAs, and regenerative finance picking up steam this year, along with more innovative on-chain ideas like restaking.

CT: The last bull run was triggered by the “DeFi summer.” What catalyst do you think will ignite the next bull run?

YG: Wouldn’t we all love to have this answer?! But the truth is, there are so many factors that will make this happen, some within crypto and some external, like regulation from governments. If I had to pick two potential “summers,” it would be RWAs and Web3 gaming.

CT: In light of the recent collapses of several big banks, many people are concerned about the existing financial system. How do you envision the future of finance and economics, and what new norms do you think will emerge, and in what timeframe?

YG: It’s much easier to pinpoint what went wrong after something happened, but unfortunately, there are no crystal balls here. I do think that the worlds of traditional and blockchain-based financial systems can co-exist, and likely will in the new future. Traditional banks have been looking into blockchain and crypto for years, so it’s only a matter of time before they gain widespread and mainstream popularity. A big unlock will be clearer regulations in industry-leading countries like the United States.

CT: The world is buzzing about AI and ChatGPT. There are those who believe AI will “steal jobs,” while others are confident it will enhance our lives and make them easier. What is your perspective? Furthermore, what significant changes do you think AI will bring to the crypto industry?

YG: Right now, AI and ChatGPT are great idea generators and editors. You can plug in a request for “Web3 marketing practices,” for instance, and it’ll generate 10 ideas. Some good, some less good. Same with editing. Throw in some web copy or an article and ask the AI to critique it for you, and it will. But that’s why humans will always be needed. There’s a literal limit to how much ChatGPT knows (September 2021 is the end-line for its knowledge base as of today). Anyone can use AI as a jumping-off point, but we’ll always need humans to edit and refine and add and remove. Areas where crypto might be able to help include democratizing data labeling with token incentives, data proofs and proof of AI inference calls to demonstrate model verification.

Portfolio companies

CT: What does an ideal startup look like to Shima? Is it the idea, the personality of the founder, the team or the traction that takes priority?

YG: Honestly, we take it all into consideration! We need to believe in the product first and foremost, but we also need to believe in the founder’s vision and the team’s ability to execute on that vision. A brand-new idea won’t have traction in terms of users at this point, but the path to traction should be clear. We look at the entire package when doing our due diligence, which generally falls into three buckets: team, product and market. As a seed fund, we care most about the team since product and market can always change in this fast-moving industry.

CT: Shima Capital has invested in several DeFi startups. How do you assess the risks associated with DeFi investments, and what measures do you take to mitigate those risks?

YG: There are just as many risks investing in Web2 as there are in Web3, including DeFi. What’s important is to understand that there are risks no matter what, and to identify and weigh risks as best you can before investing. We spend considerable time on due diligence and researching all aspects of the business, from the idea to the team to the inherent risks, and then make a well-informed decision. For DeFi specifically, it’s important to also review the smart contracts, if possible, to make sure there are no known bugs. (De.fi is a good tool to automatically look for common smart contract vulnerabilities.)

CT: What is the best way for a startup to capture your attention?

YG: All the things I mentioned throughout this interview! A solid idea, founders uniquely positioned to capture the market for said idea and a clear go-to-market strategy presented in a concise presentation.

CT: Does Shima invest solely in equity, or do you also invest in tokens? In what terms?

YG: We primarily invest in SAFEs [simple agreements for future equity] with token warrants but sometimes invest in pure tokens as well. The terms are deal-by-deal specific.

CT: What is your fastest-growing portfolio company, and what do you believe is the key to its success?

YG: We have several that have performed well through the crypto bear market, such as Wombat Exchange, Berachain, Magna and Monad Network. It’s very hard to hand-pick one from the long list, as the definition of fast-growing would be different for different business models. In order to be successful, we think the founding team is a critical key to success. This includes the team’s capability to identify high-potential markets and execute on strong strategies to capture said market.

CT: How do you discover the best deals?

YG: We have a deep network of connections in the VC world and strong relationships across the industry, from OG angels to exchanges to other strategists. Our investment team also proactively sources deals through hackathons, demo days of accelerators, colleges and even via Twitter. We’re always on the lookout for the next big project.

CT: Many prominent investors, such as a16z and Shima, are investing in Web3 gaming. However, many metaverse and Web3 projects appear to be overhyped. What motivates investors to remain optimistic about Web3 games and virtual environments?

YG: You need to look beyond buzzwords and hype and focus on the underlying technology and — most importantly — the user experience. With gaming, all that players care about is the experience of playing the game. If it’s a good game, they won’t care what technology is used to build it. Most gamers wouldn’t be able to tell you how Web2 games are currently built, but they can tell you which games they like playing and why.

Magazine: How to protect your crypto in a volatile market: Bitcoin OGs and experts weigh in

User experience beats all else, whether it’s Web3 or not! Some of the reasons we’re excited about Web3 gaming include its potential to decrease development cycles via short feedback loops between the developers and its community of gamers, interoperability of digital game assets/IP, new user acquisition strategies in a post-IDFA world [identifier for advertisers rollout by Apple], and novel gaming mechanics like fully on-chain games that are only enabled by blockchain technologies.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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