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Crypto kids fight Facebook for the soul of the Metaverse

With Facebook and Microsoft engaged in a virtual land grab, is there still a future for the dream of a Metaverse thats owned and built by the community?A dinosaur walks into a bar, orders a whiskey neat and sits down with a pink elephant and a purple,…

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With Facebook and Microsoft engaged in a virtual land grab, is there still a future for the dream of a Metaverse thats owned and built by the community?

A dinosaur walks into a bar, orders a whiskey neat and sits down with a pink elephant and a purple, hard-to-place obscure anime character. They watch a live NBA game. A good time is had by all.

This is no joke. For one major crypto fund manager referred to as Simon, who prefers to remain anonymous (and not offer investment advice), that night in 2020 which resembled the famous bar scene on Mos Eisley in Star Wars was the moment when the light bulb went off. Decentraland. This is a real thing, he thought.

Virtual, community-built worlds such as Decentraland and The Sandbox stem from a gaming market that allows people to host virtual events and buy or rent digital real estate. These nonfungible token Metaverse platforms bridge the real world with the surreal in what The Sandbox has described as a player-owned economy.

The Sandbox last week raised $93 million from Soft Banks Vision Fund 2, and NFT sales exceeded $10 billion in Q3 of 2021. We are now at the dawn of the Metaverse era. Celebrities, including rappers like Snoop Dogg, and luxury fashion brands are all getting in on the NFT game to monetize their products, images and personas.

It has been a huge year for the space, and the pandemic has helped the cultural adoption of the concept of the Metaverse. We have all kind of already lived a Metaverse life on Zoom, over the last two years. The Metaverse is where it all ends, notes Robby Yung, CEO of Animoca Brands which owns The Sandbox and is a major shareholder in CryptoKitties and NBA Top Shot creator Dapper Labs.

Its also more than just a game: What does it mean to plug into the Metaverse? Its more of a philosophical question of how much of my time will I dedicate to this place.

 

 

The supervillain’s name is Meta.

 

 

Big money is being thrown around. Along with Facebook, Microsoft is muscling in too. Whoever becomes dominant early on can grab the early network effects to become a gigantic player. While Facebooks investors might be concerned by the $10 billion the company is spending on the Metaverse this year, why cant Facebook join this glorious virtual world?

There is some logic behind the rebrand to Meta, considering it bought Instagram and WhatsApp in 2012 and 2014, respectively, as well as VR headset company Oculus in that latter year. It makes sense for that virtual reality play, and Facebook has the money and the network effects to attract new gamers and interest to the space. Many diehard cryptopreneurs and investors are enjoying the mass adoption brought on in 2021 by the NFT craze, and Facebook would help that mass adoption goal.

But it also raises plenty of questions. Few are clear on what exactly the social media giants plans are, but unlike Decentraland, pundits expect data to be collected and that the platform will be centralized.

The social media giant could pose a big threat to a community-run Metaverse. Should a centralized company like Facebook which constantly faces antitrust questions and is criticized from all quarters over privacy issues and spreading misinformation and division be allowed to take control of the Metaverse?

There are a lot of cultural and economic factors at play. We consider them from three perspectives: The Metaverse Investors, The Metaverse Founders and The Metaverse Gamers. What is the Metaverse, and where is it going? And could or should Facebook join this metaphysical universe?

 

 

Zuck
Now theres an unnatural slightly creepy-looking version of Mark Zuckerberg but which ones which?

 

 

For many (even within Cryptoland), its probably still hard to understand whats driving the Metaverse. Despite the foundations being built, its still very much a concept at this stage one reflecting our inner hopes and dreams, a vast cartoonish digital playground enmeshed with our physical world.

According to Mike Rubin, founder of Dreamium Labs and creator of the Dreamscape Open Metaverse initiative, the term is being misused. The term is being both improperly and overly used to describe products and, as weve just seen with the Facebook rebrand, a company, he says.

This is one of the problems with Facebooks play: We believe there can only be one Metaverse, and to be part of it, there has to be interconnectivity and self-sovereignty of identity, Rubin says.

So, in practice, companies and products that are calling themselves a metaverse are simply referring to apps and worlds or in the case of Facebook, its own universe. Perhaps in the future, if they adopt a self-sovereign universal identity system, they can become part of the Metaverse.

Central to the idea of the Metaverse is that each person will have their own interactive avatar that exists outside of any walled garden or service within the Metaverse. Owning your avatar and all its data is a fundamental tenet, he says. If your interactive digital identity is not transportable to a destination, then, by definition, that destination can not be part of the Metaverse. So, a Metaverse carved up and controlled by companies is not a Metaverse.

That is the basis of [each persons] digital identity, which enables all their interactions and how they are represented in each interconnected experience, argues Rubin.

Digital ownership is made possible through NFTs, and blockchain technology encourages individuals to build the Metaverse, in part because they own whatever they create.

All jokes are meta jokes in the Metaverse.

Logically, of course, Facebook could still muscle in the Metaverse due purely to its network effects, but this will become a war of ecosystems, not just companies.

The key battle will be between Facebook alongside other corporations seeking to control the Metaverse and the crypto kids who want it to be community-built, -owned and -run. The history of the internet suggests that the companies are likely to get the upper hand unless the decentralized nature of blockchain technology has dramatically altered the balance.

Rubin, a tech veteran, argues that Since no one entity should control such a vital system to the Metaverse, we are calling on the entire ecosystem to join together in a community-owned and -operated open Metaverse: the Dreamscape MetaDAO. Only together can we accelerate into the first few innings of the Metaverse era.

 

 

 

 

Whether a decentralized autonomous organization is more or less likely to succeed than Facebook is an interesting question that may depend on eventual commercial partnerships, platform creations and gaming preferences.

Part of the problem is that the Metaverse is still being built, so rent-seeking is still possible. For Rubin, a baseball analogy is apt: We are still in warmups, taking batting practice. The game has not even started, but there are already lots of players on the field getting ready.

You can be whoever you want to be in The Sandbox.

Interoperable gaming and the adoption rubric

The Metaverse has the potential to change the way we work. Decentraland and The Sandbox, for example, enable players to monetize their time spent in the Metaverse in different ways, also known as play-to-earn.

For Mitch Penman-Allen, co-founder of play-to-earn startup Perion, Facebook doesnt fit into the definition of the Metaverse. The Metaverse is the idea that we are building interoperable digital networks founded upon digital asset ownership and platform-agnostic useability, he says.

Perion is a digital gaming guild that buys and leases NFT assets to gamers who use them to get the best returns, bringing staking into the gaming realm. Co-founder Amos Whitewolf was the No.1 player on Axie Infinity for several months in 2021, and he has reinvested those play-to-earn winnings into his startup. He even got his 13-, 15- and 17-year-old sisters into play-to-earn to make pocket money.

The people who really understand this are the crypto-natives who have had a strong focus on whats been happening on the ground since the beginning. The people that will pick up on this space fast are going to be gamers nothing is new here for a gamer other than real ownership. The fight for decentralized ownership of the Metaverse isnt new.

He notes that the first NFT project created on the Ethereum blockchain, Etheria, was a decentralized virtual world where players owned tiles and farmed them for blocks to build things. It had the intention of offering an alternative to whatever Google and Facebook come up with in regard to the Metaverse.

In November 2017, Dapper Labs CryptoKitties popularized the then-revolutionary concept of NFTs, with co-founder Mik Naayem telling Magazine last year that it was a strategic play.

The reason we decided to go for entertainment specifically games is because we felt that its just a much easier way to introduce folks to decentralization, he said. Gamers are the perfect target market, as they already understand virtual currencies and virtual worlds.

Gaming leading to crypto adoption has been a longstanding crypto prophecy that seemed to finally dawn in 2021, argues Whitewolf. Gaming is where the next wave of people onboarded to crypto is going to happen. People understand games they dont need to learn finance or tech to be a part of this movement. In-game assets are not a new concept. Ownership and truly interoperable assets are the next step.

CryptoKitties are the OG NFTs

Incentivization is the key to the community-built Metaverse

The play-to-earn model saw Filipinos starting to play games en masse during the pandemic rather than seeking manual work or a call center job, with Axie Infinity the godfather of the play-to-earn model, according to fund manager Simon. This social phenomenon, while not unique to the Philippines, is certainly most pronounced there, with a considerable amount of Metamasks growth this year coming from the country. Discord (AKA Slack for gaming) groups now feature tens of thousands of members from the Philippines, and there are now more SLP (one of Axie Infinitys tokens) wallets than credit cards in the Philippines.

Adoption is a mechanism of a good play-to-earn model and a good game to play, according to Yung a tech veteran from the online gaming industry, the majority shareholder of The Sandbox and an investor in Decentraland.

Economics and being able to earn in the Metaverse will also be an important part of building the ecosystem. Filipino gamer Water Emperor got into NFTs and playing Axie Infinity due to the pandemic, and he joined a guild run by Whitewolf in July 2021, renting an NFT to play the game as a scholar. In Metaverse parlance, scholars play the game with someone elses NFT with a revenue split model.

Water Emperor uses this model to pay for my tuition fees and hopes to become a doctor one day. His parents are supportive and hope to invest in crypto soon too. In a country with a political system as volatile as the Philippines, and with mass unemployment during the pandemic, it is easy to see why this new financial earning capacity offers new hope for Filipino gamers.

 

 

A scene from Axie Infinity, a play-to-earn game created in Vietnam.

 

 

Axie Infinity its a good game, similar to card games when I was a kid. Constantly changing, another universe is always changing, he says. That is why I play, to open windows to explore, and it helps me to complete my studies.

Most people play on mobile phones in the Philippines, and high internet fees affect the profitability of gaming at times. Nevertheless, he salvaged 2021 by turning his passion for gaming into a career. Crypto economics allowed that to happen.

In short, incentivization is the key to a community-built Metaverse. We are at the beginning. Crypto-asset protocols have created the infrastructure the Metaverse will require, says Whitewolf.

The Metaverse doesnt start in virtual reality it starts with ownership of assets, [the] ability for anyone to create and trade value. VR comes later as the technology becomes available.

Multiple metaverses already exist

For Simon the crypto fund manager, his interest started with Decentraland walking around a virtual bar and watching a live NBA game with random avatars. It was then that the penny dropped. For him, this is the next step for the internet and social engagement. Young people are more digitally engaged, and people living in suboptimal living standards could live more happily in a digital world.

Decentraland avatar parties are wild.

On that measure, its also obvious how Facebook fits in this world. Facebookers are already living online. Posts and more importantly, how often a person posts can often reveal much about a person, from mental health to happiness and their attitudes toward privacy.

Facebook clearly believes the Metaverse is the next evolution of social media, which puts it in the driving seat based on its users, but its implementation of play-to-earn will also be important to its success globally.

There are already multiple socioeconomic metaverses, and this may play in Facebooks favor if the right to play is free and its existing network effects hold strong. In The Sandbox and in Decentraland, there is a finite amount of square footage, and corporations will likely buy up much of that land, according to Simon.

Gas fees can also be prohibitive, especially on Ethereum, where it costs a fortune to mint and trade NFTs, locking out large parts of the population. As alternative networks like Solana, Cardano and Polkadot are used, and as Ethereum sidechains are built and the blockchain moves to proof-of-stake, the barriers to entry will lower.

NFTs are also currently relatively inaccessible to non-crypto natives. This is a limitation of the infrastructure that NFTs are released on, argues Whitewolf. In some ways, this is a race to widespread adoption.

 

 

 

 

Corporations are already muscling into the Metaverse and taking it away from the people, replicating the divide in the real world of the haves and have-nots. Simon notes that growth is not all egalitarian. Whales were buying up blocks in Decentraland for $20,000 in May that are now about $800,000.

Corporations such as 1980s gaming superstar Atari have also invested heavily in Decentraland and The Sandbox. This is already beyond a poor mans game, he notes. As real-world advertising progresses further, land will be more valuable than Times Square, opines the crypto fund manager.

 

 

A map of all the virtual land you didnt buy, and now Atari owns it.

 

The Metaverse is the antithesis of Facebook

The term metaverse originates from Neal Stephensons 1992 novel Snow Crash. Its one of Facebook founder Mark Zuckerbergs favorite novels, and he reportedly used to give it to all new hires.

Animoca Brands Yung says the book was also his own gateway drug into tech and angel investing, and his first angel investment in 1997 was based on building a Snow Crash-style Metaverse. The CEO of that startup is now an investor in The Sandbox hopefully, a good harbinger for the crypto kids long waiting for this moment of evolution.

Yung believes that the Metaverse is the antithesis of Facebook. Sci-fi always reached for that idea. Now, we have the tools. A blockchain economy makes it real, he says, adding that crypto has managed to stay one step ahead of corporate control so far:

Crypto ventures needed to move forward as fast as possible so that the behemoths couldnt buy them. Even Facebook and Google can longer afford to buy Ethereum.

 

 

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Whitewolf is not sure where the Metaverse is headed, but he knows its going to be huge and erase the barriers between developing economies and developed ones. Crypto gaming is going to massively onboard billions onto blockchain. The crypto narrative around banking the bankless has never been so realistic, he says.

 

 

Another scene from The Sandbox.

 

 

Reddit co-founder Alexis Ohanian said recently that the Metaverse is being built by the community, not corporations, and he hopes that it stays that way

Right now, there is this bottom-up movement to create the Metaverse. Youre seeing a lot of this happening in the crypto community. Youre seeing a lot of people building what I think is, what most of us hope will become, a much more organic type of world rather than a top-down Facebook-imposed one.

For Rubin, the key element has always been open community and open-source network effects, which he believes are more powerful than any corporation. We dont see it as a battle between Facebook and crypto kids, per se. The latter will approach their efforts with decentralization at the forefront, while the large established tech companies are going to see blockchain and crypto as a necessary bolt-on as opposed to being core, he says.

Time will tell which approach gains adoption as well as sustainability. We have made our bet that a decentralized, open and community-owned blockchain foundational layer is going to win.

 

 

 

 

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International

There will soon be one million seats on this popular Amtrak route

“More people are taking the train than ever before,” says Amtrak’s Executive Vice President.

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While the size of the United States makes it hard for it to compete with the inter-city train access available in places like Japan and many European countries, Amtrak trains are a very popular transportation option in certain pockets of the country — so much so that the country’s national railway company is expanding its Northeast Corridor by more than one million seats.

Related: This is what it's like to take a 19-hour train from New York to Chicago

Running from Boston all the way south to Washington, D.C., the route is one of the most popular as it passes through the most densely populated part of the country and serves as a commuter train for those who need to go between East Coast cities such as New York and Philadelphia for business.

Veronika Bondarenko captured this photo of New York’s Moynihan Train Hall. 

Veronika Bondarenko

Amtrak launches new routes, promises travelers ‘additional travel options’

Earlier this month, Amtrak announced that it was adding four additional Northeastern routes to its schedule — two more routes between New York’s Penn Station and Union Station in Washington, D.C. on the weekend, a new early-morning weekday route between New York and Philadelphia’s William H. Gray III 30th Street Station and a weekend route between Philadelphia and Boston’s South Station.

More Travel:

According to Amtrak, these additions will increase Northeast Corridor’s service by 20% on the weekdays and 10% on the weekends for a total of one million additional seats when counted by how many will ride the corridor over the year.

“More people are taking the train than ever before and we’re proud to offer our customers additional travel options when they ride with us on the Northeast Regional,” Amtrak Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer Eliot Hamlisch said in a statement on the new routes. “The Northeast Regional gets you where you want to go comfortably, conveniently and sustainably as you breeze past traffic on I-95 for a more enjoyable travel experience.”

Here are some of the other Amtrak changes you can expect to see

Amtrak also said that, in the 2023 financial year, the Northeast Corridor had nearly 9.2 million riders — 8% more than it had pre-pandemic and a 29% increase from 2022. The higher demand, particularly during both off-peak hours and the time when many business travelers use to get to work, is pushing Amtrak to invest into this corridor in particular.

To reach more customers, Amtrak has also made several changes to both its routes and pricing system. In the fall of 2023, it introduced a type of new “Night Owl Fare” — if traveling during very late or very early hours, one can go between cities like New York and Philadelphia or Philadelphia and Washington. D.C. for $5 to $15.

As travel on the same routes during peak hours can reach as much as $300, this was a deliberate move to reach those who have the flexibility of time and might have otherwise preferred more affordable methods of transportation such as the bus. After seeing strong uptake, Amtrak added this type of fare to more Boston routes.

The largest distances, such as the ones between Boston and New York or New York and Washington, are available at the lowest rate for $20.

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International

The next pandemic? It’s already here for Earth’s wildlife

Bird flu is decimating species already threatened by climate change and habitat loss.

I am a conservation biologist who studies emerging infectious diseases. When people ask me what I think the next pandemic will be I often say that we are in the midst of one – it’s just afflicting a great many species more than ours.

I am referring to the highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI H5N1), otherwise known as bird flu, which has killed millions of birds and unknown numbers of mammals, particularly during the past three years.

This is the strain that emerged in domestic geese in China in 1997 and quickly jumped to humans in south-east Asia with a mortality rate of around 40-50%. My research group encountered the virus when it killed a mammal, an endangered Owston’s palm civet, in a captive breeding programme in Cuc Phuong National Park Vietnam in 2005.

How these animals caught bird flu was never confirmed. Their diet is mainly earthworms, so they had not been infected by eating diseased poultry like many captive tigers in the region.

This discovery prompted us to collate all confirmed reports of fatal infection with bird flu to assess just how broad a threat to wildlife this virus might pose.

This is how a newly discovered virus in Chinese poultry came to threaten so much of the world’s biodiversity.

H5N1 originated on a Chinese poultry farm in 1997. ChameleonsEye/Shutterstock

The first signs

Until December 2005, most confirmed infections had been found in a few zoos and rescue centres in Thailand and Cambodia. Our analysis in 2006 showed that nearly half (48%) of all the different groups of birds (known to taxonomists as “orders”) contained a species in which a fatal infection of bird flu had been reported. These 13 orders comprised 84% of all bird species.

We reasoned 20 years ago that the strains of H5N1 circulating were probably highly pathogenic to all bird orders. We also showed that the list of confirmed infected species included those that were globally threatened and that important habitats, such as Vietnam’s Mekong delta, lay close to reported poultry outbreaks.

Mammals known to be susceptible to bird flu during the early 2000s included primates, rodents, pigs and rabbits. Large carnivores such as Bengal tigers and clouded leopards were reported to have been killed, as well as domestic cats.

Our 2006 paper showed the ease with which this virus crossed species barriers and suggested it might one day produce a pandemic-scale threat to global biodiversity.

Unfortunately, our warnings were correct.

A roving sickness

Two decades on, bird flu is killing species from the high Arctic to mainland Antarctica.

In the past couple of years, bird flu has spread rapidly across Europe and infiltrated North and South America, killing millions of poultry and a variety of bird and mammal species. A recent paper found that 26 countries have reported at least 48 mammal species that have died from the virus since 2020, when the latest increase in reported infections started.

Not even the ocean is safe. Since 2020, 13 species of aquatic mammal have succumbed, including American sea lions, porpoises and dolphins, often dying in their thousands in South America. A wide range of scavenging and predatory mammals that live on land are now also confirmed to be susceptible, including mountain lions, lynx, brown, black and polar bears.

The UK alone has lost over 75% of its great skuas and seen a 25% decline in northern gannets. Recent declines in sandwich terns (35%) and common terns (42%) were also largely driven by the virus.

Scientists haven’t managed to completely sequence the virus in all affected species. Research and continuous surveillance could tell us how adaptable it ultimately becomes, and whether it can jump to even more species. We know it can already infect humans – one or more genetic mutations may make it more infectious.

At the crossroads

Between January 1 2003 and December 21 2023, 882 cases of human infection with the H5N1 virus were reported from 23 countries, of which 461 (52%) were fatal.

Of these fatal cases, more than half were in Vietnam, China, Cambodia and Laos. Poultry-to-human infections were first recorded in Cambodia in December 2003. Intermittent cases were reported until 2014, followed by a gap until 2023, yielding 41 deaths from 64 cases. The subtype of H5N1 virus responsible has been detected in poultry in Cambodia since 2014. In the early 2000s, the H5N1 virus circulating had a high human mortality rate, so it is worrying that we are now starting to see people dying after contact with poultry again.

It’s not just H5 subtypes of bird flu that concern humans. The H10N1 virus was originally isolated from wild birds in South Korea, but has also been reported in samples from China and Mongolia.

Recent research found that these particular virus subtypes may be able to jump to humans after they were found to be pathogenic in laboratory mice and ferrets. The first person who was confirmed to be infected with H10N5 died in China on January 27 2024, but this patient was also suffering from seasonal flu (H3N2). They had been exposed to live poultry which also tested positive for H10N5.

Species already threatened with extinction are among those which have died due to bird flu in the past three years. The first deaths from the virus in mainland Antarctica have just been confirmed in skuas, highlighting a looming threat to penguin colonies whose eggs and chicks skuas prey on. Humboldt penguins have already been killed by the virus in Chile.

A colony of king penguins.
Remote penguin colonies are already threatened by climate change. AndreAnita/Shutterstock

How can we stem this tsunami of H5N1 and other avian influenzas? Completely overhaul poultry production on a global scale. Make farms self-sufficient in rearing eggs and chicks instead of exporting them internationally. The trend towards megafarms containing over a million birds must be stopped in its tracks.

To prevent the worst outcomes for this virus, we must revisit its primary source: the incubator of intensive poultry farms.

Diana Bell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked…

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked by the NY Fed Consumer Survey extended their late 2023 slide, with 3Y inflation expectations in January sliding to a record low 2.4% (from 2.6% in December), even as 1 and 5Y inflation forecasts remained flat, moments ago the NY Fed reported that in February there was a sharp rebound in longer-term inflation expectations, rising to 2.7% from 2.4% at the three-year ahead horizon, and jumping to 2.9% from 2.5% at the five-year ahead horizon, while the 1Y inflation outlook was flat for the 3rd month in a row, stuck at 3.0%. 

The increases in both the three-year ahead and five-year ahead measures were most pronounced for respondents with at most high school degrees (in other words, the "really smart folks" are expecting deflation soon). The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons, while the median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one- and three-year ahead horizons and remained unchanged at the five-year ahead horizon.

Going down the survey, we find that the median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% for gas; decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 6.8% for the cost of medical care (its lowest reading since September 2020); decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% for the cost of a college education; and surprisingly decreased by 0.3 percentage point for rent to 6.1% (its lowest reading since December 2020), and remained flat for food at 4.9%.

We find the rent expectations surprising because it is happening just asking rents are rising across the country.

At the same time as consumers erroneously saw sharply lower rents, median home price growth expectations remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month at 3.0%.

Turning to the labor market, the survey found that the average perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job separations increased, while the perceived likelihood of finding a job (in the event of a job loss) declined. "The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also increased, by 1.8 percentage points to 19.5%."

Mean unemployment expectations - or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now - decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 36.1%, the lowest reading since February 2022. Additionally, the median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth was unchanged at 2.8%, remaining slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 2.9%.

Turning to household finance, we find the following:

  • The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.1%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.9% to 3.3% since January 2023, and remains above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 2.7%.
  • Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%. The increase was driven by respondents with a high school degree or less.
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased to 9.3% from 8.9%.
  • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 26.1%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 30%.
  • Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated somewhat with fewer respondents reporting being better off than a year ago. Year-ahead expectations also deteriorated marginally with a smaller share of respondents expecting to be better off and a slightly larger share of respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now.
  • The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.4 percentage point to 38.9%.
  • At the same time, perceptions and expectations about credit access turned less optimistic: "Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated with a larger share of respondents reporting tighter conditions and a smaller share reporting looser conditions compared to a year ago."

Also, a smaller percentage of consumers, 11.45% vs 12.14% in prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months

Last, and perhaps most humorous, is the now traditional cognitive dissonance one observes with these polls, because at a time when long-term inflation expectations jumped, which clearly suggests that financial conditions will need to be tightened, the number of respondents expecting higher stock prices one year from today jumped to the highest since November 2021... which incidentally is just when the market topped out during the last cycle before suffering a painful bear market.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 12:40

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