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Cottonseed oil market size to grow by 965.24 thousand tons from 2022 to 2027: A descriptive analysis of customer landscape, vendor assessment, and market dynamics – Technavio

Cottonseed oil market size to grow by 965.24 thousand tons from 2022 to 2027: A descriptive analysis of customer landscape, vendor assessment, and market dynamics – Technavio
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, Jan. 23, 2023

NEW YORK, Jan. 23, 2023 /PRNewswire/ …

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Cottonseed oil market size to grow by 965.24 thousand tons from 2022 to 2027: A descriptive analysis of customer landscape, vendor assessment, and market dynamics - Technavio

PR Newswire

NEW YORK, Jan. 23, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The global cottonseed oil market size is estimated to increase by 965.24 thousand tons from 2022 to 2027. The market's growth momentum will accelerate at a CAGR of 3.6% during the forecast period - Request a sample report

Global cottonseed oil market – Vendor analysis

Vendor offerings -
  • Archer Daniels Midland Co. - The company offers cottonseed oil for frying, spray oil, baking, and industrial margarine.
  • Aryan International - The company offers organic cottonseed oil for frying, and baking and can be used in processed food items such as mayonnaise, spicy dishes, and potato chips.
  • Asha Cotton Industries - The company offers cottonseed oil under the brand called Asha.
  • Bunge Ltd. - The company offers cottonseed oil used as margarine, edible oils, bakery and grain under various brands such as Dadla, Komili, Gagan, wholeharvest, Espiga, and El Maizal.
  • For details on vendors and their offerings – Buy the report!
Vendor landscape –

The global cottonseed oil market is fragmented, with the presence of several global as well as regional vendors. A few prominent vendors that offer cottonseed oil in the market are Archer Daniels Midland Co., Aryan International, Asha Cotton Industries, Authentic Oil Co., Bunge Ltd., Cargill Inc., Henry Lamotte Services GmbH, ITOCHU Corp., Matangi Cotton Industries, Oilseeds Australia Pty Ltd., PYCO Industries, S.R. Cotton, SULU ORGANICS Corp., Vimal Oil and Foods Ltd., Wilmar International Ltd., Gokul Refoils and Solvent Ltd., Louis Dreyfus Holding BV, and Oilseeds International Inc. and others.

The global cottonseed oil market is at its growing stage. Established vendors have started acquiring small and regional players to increase their global reach. Moreover, the market will witness the entry of several new players, which will intensify the competition among the existing players during the forecast period.

Global cottonseed oil market - Customer landscape

To help companies evaluate and develop growth strategies, the report outlines –

  • Key purchase criteria
  • Adoption rates
  • Adoption lifecycle
  • Drivers of price sensitivity

Global cottonseed oil market - Segmentation assessment

Segment overview

Technavio has segmented the market based on Product (GM cottonseed oil and Non-GM cottonseed oil) and Distribution channels (Offline and Online).

  • The GM cottonseed oil segment will grow at a significant rate during the forecast period. The segment was the major contributor to the global cottonseed oil market in 2022. The segment is expected to witness a decline due to government restrictions in countries such as India, where the sales of GM cottonseed oil are prohibited for human consumption unless approved by the government. Various organizations in India test oil products to identify the mixture of unapproved components in the product. Most of such products did not have GM ingredients labeling on the product. Therefore, the factors mentioned above indicate that the sales of GM cottonseed oil products are expected to decline during the forecast period.
Geography Overview

By geography, the global cottonseed oil market is segmented into APAC, Middle East and Africa, North America, South America, and Europe. The report provides actionable insights and estimates the contribution of all regions to the growth of the global cottonseed oil market.

  • APAC will account for 80% of the market's growth during the forecast period. Cotton production in India is expected to increase during the forecast period due to special schemes such as intensive cotton production programs launched by the government. This will positively affect the cottonseed oil market in the region during the forecast period. The various use of cottonseed oil in other industries is also expected to increase the demand for cottonseed oil in the region during the forecast period. Cottonseed oil is used for developing biodiesel in APAC, and the use of biodiesel is expected to increase due to the depletion of fossil fuels globally.

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Global Cottonseed Oil Market – Market Dynamics

Leading Drivers - The health benefits of cottonseed oil are the key factor driving the global cottonseed oil market growth. One of the growth drivers of the global cottonseed oil market is the increasing awareness among consumers about the health benefits of the consumption of cottonseed oil. For instance, Cottonseed oil is low in cholesterol content, making it popular among health-conscious consumers. Similarly, Cottonseed oil has a high smoke point, making it suitable for deep frying and cooking at high temperatures. It has a neutral taste, the taste depends on the ingredients added to it. Such factors will increase the market growth during the forecast period.

Key Trends - The availability of cold-pressed cottonseed oil is the primary trend in the global cottonseed oil market growth. The demand for cold-pressed cottonseed oil is increasing among consumers, and it is expected to remain high during the forecast period. The players in the market are also coming up with new cold-pressed cottonseed oil products. Cold pressing ensures that the product retains its natural antioxidants and natural odor and flavor. Cold pressing involves extracting the oils by pressing the fruits or seeds with a modern steel press. With increasing consumer preference for cold-pressed cottonseed oil, the global market is expected to witness high growth during the forecast period.

Major challenges - The easy availability of substitutes is a major challenge to the global cottonseed oil market growth. Cottonseed oil is widely used in cooking as it has healthy unsaturated fatty acids. Other types of vegetable oils, however, can be used as replacements for cottonseed oil in commercial and domestic cooking. Palm oil, olive oil, soybean oil, and canola oil are some alternatives to cottonseed oil. The availability of substitutes, therefore, can hamper the global cottonseed oil market during the forecast period.

Drivers, trends, and challenges have an impact on market dynamics, which can impact businesses. Find more insights in a sample report!

What are the key data covered in this cottonseed oil market report?

  • CAGR of the market during the forecast period
  • Detailed information on factors that will drive the growth of the cottonseed oil market between 2023 and 2027
  • Precise estimation of the cottonseed oil market size and its contribution to the market in focus on the parent market
  • Accurate predictions about upcoming trends and changes in consumer behavior
  • Growth of the cottonseed oil industry across APAC, Middle East and Africa, North America, South America, and Europe
  • A thorough analysis of the market's competitive landscape and detailed information about vendors
  • Comprehensive analysis of factors that will challenge the growth of cottonseed oil market vendors

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Cottonseed Oil Market Scope

Report Coverage

Details

Page number

162

Base year

2022

Historic period

2017-2021

Forecast period

2023-2027

Growth momentum & CAGR

Accelerate at a CAGR of 3.6%

Market growth 2023-2027

965.24 thousand tons

Market structure

Fragmented

YoY growth 2022-2023 (%)

2.44

Regional analysis

APAC, Middle East and Africa, North America, South America, and Europe

Performing market contribution

APAC at 80%

Key countries

US, India, China, Pakistan, and Brazil

Competitive landscape

Leading Vendors, Market Positioning of Vendors, Competitive Strategies, and Industry Risks

Key companies profiled

Archer Daniels Midland Co., Aryan International, Asha Cotton Industries, Authentic Oil Co., Bunge Ltd., Cargill Inc., Henry Lamotte Services GmbH, ITOCHU Corp., Matangi Cotton Industries, Oilseeds Australia Pty Ltd., PYCO Industries, S.R. Cotton, SULU ORGANICS Corp., Vimal Oil and Foods Ltd., Wilmar International Ltd., Gemini Edibles and Fats India Pvt. Ltd., Gokul Refoils and Solvent Ltd., Louis Dreyfus Holding BV, Maharashtra solvent extraction P Ltd., and Oilseeds International Inc.

Market dynamics

Parent market analysis, Market growth inducers and obstacles, Fast-growing and slow-growing segment analysis, COVID-19 impact and recovery analysis and future consumer dynamics, and Market condition analysis for the forecast period.

Customization purview

If our report has not included the data that you are looking for, you can reach out to our analysts and get segments customized.

Table of Contents:

1 Executive Summary

  • 1.1 Market Overview 
    • Exhibit 01: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Overview
    • Exhibit 02: Executive Summary – Data Table on Market Overview
    • Exhibit 03: Executive Summary – Chart on Global Market Characteristics
    • Exhibit 04: Executive Summary – Chart on Market by Geography
    • Exhibit 05: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by Product
    • Exhibit 06: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by Distribution Channel
    • Exhibit 07: Executive Summary – Chart on Incremental Growth
    • Exhibit 08: Executive Summary – Data Table on Incremental Growth
    • Exhibit 09: Executive Summary – Chart on Vendor Market Positioning

2 Market Landscape

  • 2.1 Market ecosystem 
    • Exhibit 10: Parent market
    • Exhibit 11: Market Characteristics

3 Market Sizing

  • 3.1 Market Definition 
    • Exhibit 12: Offerings of vendors included in the market definition
  • 3.2 Market segment analysis 
    • Exhibit 13: Market segments
  • 3.3 Market size 2022
  • 3.4 Market outlook: Forecast for 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 14: Chart on Global - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 15: Data Table on Global - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 16: Chart on Global Market- Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 17: Data Table on Global Market- Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)

4 Historic Market Size

  • 4.1 Global cottonseed oil market 2017 - 2021
    • Exhibit 18: Historic Market Size – Data Table on Global cottonseed oil market 2017 - 2021 (thousand t)
  • 4.2 Product Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 19: Historic Market Size – Product Segment 2017 - 2021 (thousand t)
  • 4.3 Distribution channel Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021
    • Exhibit 20: Historic Market Size – Distribution channel Segment 2017 - 2021 (thousand t)
  • 4.4 Geography Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 21: Historic Market Size – Geography Segment 2017 - 2021 (thousand t)
  • 4.5 Country Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 22: Historic Market Size – Country Segment 2017 - 2021 (thousand t)

5 Five Forces Analysis

  • 5.1 Five forces summary 
    • Exhibit 23: Five forces analysis - Comparison between 2022 and 2027
  • 5.2 Bargaining power of buyers 
    • Exhibit 24: Chart on Bargaining power of buyers – Impact of key factors 2022 and 2027
  • 5.3 Bargaining power of suppliers 
    • Exhibit 25: Bargaining power of suppliers – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.4 Threat of new entrants 
    • Exhibit 26: Threat of new entrants – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.5 Threat of substitutes 
    • Exhibit 27: Threat of substitutes – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.6 Threat of rivalry 
    • Exhibit 28: Threat of rivalry – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.7 Market condition 
    • Exhibit 29: Chart on Market condition - Five forces 2022 and 2027

6 Market Segmentation by Product

  • 6.1 Market segments 
    • Exhibit 30: Chart on Product - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 31: Data Table on Product - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.2 Comparison by Product 
    • Exhibit 32: Chart on Comparison by Product
    • Exhibit 33: Data Table on Comparison by Product
  • 6.3 GM cottonseed oil - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 34: Chart on GM cottonseed oil - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 35: Data Table on GM cottonseed oil - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 36: Chart on GM cottonseed oil - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 37: Data Table on GM cottonseed oil - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.4 Non-GM cottonseed oil - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 38: Chart on Non-GM cottonseed oil - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 39: Data Table on Non-GM cottonseed oil - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 40: Chart on Non-GM cottonseed oil - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 41: Data Table on Non-GM cottonseed oil - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.5 Market opportunity by Product 
    • Exhibit 42: Market opportunity by Product (thousand t)

7 Market Segmentation by Distribution Channel

  • 7.1 Market segments 
    • Exhibit 43: Chart on Distribution Channel - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 44: Data Table on Distribution Channel - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.2 Comparison by Distribution Channel 
    • Exhibit 45: Chart on Comparison by Distribution Channel
    • Exhibit 46: Data Table on Comparison by Distribution Channel
  • 7.3 Offline - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 47: Chart on Offline - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 48: Data Table on Offline - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 49: Chart on Offline - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 50: Data Table on Offline - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.4 Online - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 51: Chart on Online - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 52: Data Table on Online - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 53: Chart on Online - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 54: Data Table on Online - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.5 Market opportunity by Distribution Channel
    • Exhibit 55: Market opportunity by Distribution Channel (thousand t)

8 Customer Landscape

  • 8.1 Customer landscape overview 
    • Exhibit 56: Analysis of price sensitivity, lifecycle, customer purchase basket, adoption rates, and purchase criteria

9 Geographic Landscape

  • 9.1 Geographic segmentation 
    • Exhibit 57: Chart on Market share by geography 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 58: Data Table on Market share by geography 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.2 Geographic comparison 
    • Exhibit 59: Chart on Geographic comparison
    • Exhibit 60: Data Table on Geographic comparison
  • 9.3 APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 61: Chart on APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 62: Data Table on APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 63: Chart on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 64: Data Table on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.4 Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 65: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 66: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 67: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 68: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.5 North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 69: Chart on North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 70: Data Table on North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 71: Chart on North America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 72: Data Table on North America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.6 South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 73: Chart on South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 74: Data Table on South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 75: Chart on South America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 76: Data Table on South America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.7 Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 77: Chart on Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 78: Data Table on Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 79: Chart on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 80: Data Table on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.8 India - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 81: Chart on India - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 82: Data Table on India - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 83: Chart on India - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 84: Data Table on India - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.9 China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 85: Chart on China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 86: Data Table on China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 87: Chart on China - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 88: Data Table on China - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.10 Pakistan - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 89: Chart on Pakistan - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 90: Data Table on Pakistan - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 91: Chart on Pakistan - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 92: Data Table on Pakistan - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.11 Brazil - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 93: Chart on Brazil - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 94: Data Table on Brazil - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 95: Chart on Brazil - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 96: Data Table on Brazil - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.12 US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 97: Chart on US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 98: Data Table on US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 99: Chart on US - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 100: Data Table on US - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.13 Market opportunity by geography 
    • Exhibit 101: Market opportunity by geography (thousand t)

10 Drivers, Challenges, and Trends

  • 10.1 Market drivers
  • 10.2 Market challenges
  • 10.3 Impact of drivers and challenges 
    • Exhibit 102: Impact of drivers and challenges in 2022 and 2027
  • 10.4 Market trends

11 Vendor Landscape

  • 11.1 Overview
  • 11.2 Vendor landscape 
    • Exhibit 103: Overview on Criticality of inputs and Factors of differentiation
  • 11.3 Landscape disruption 
    • Exhibit 104: Overview on factors of disruption
  • 11.4 Industry risks 
    • Exhibit 105: Impact of key risks on business

12 Vendor Analysis

  • 12.1 Vendors covered 
    • Exhibit 106: Vendors covered
  • 12.2 Market positioning of vendors 
    • Exhibit 107: Matrix on vendor position and classification
  • 12.3 Archer Daniels Midland Co. 
    • Exhibit 108: Archer Daniels Midland Co. - Overview
    • Exhibit 109: Archer Daniels Midland Co. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 110: Archer Daniels Midland Co. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 111: Archer Daniels Midland Co. - Segment focus
  • 12.4 Aryan International 
    • Exhibit 112: Aryan International - Overview
    • Exhibit 113: Aryan International - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 114: Aryan International - Key offerings
  • 12.5 Asha Cotton Industries 
    • Exhibit 115: Asha Cotton Industries - Overview
    • Exhibit 116: Asha Cotton Industries - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 117: Asha Cotton Industries - Key offerings
  • 12.6 Bunge Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 118: Bunge Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 119: Bunge Ltd. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 120: Bunge Ltd. - Key news
    • Exhibit 121: Bunge Ltd. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 122: Bunge Ltd. - Segment focus
  • 12.7 Cargill Inc. 
    • Exhibit 123: Cargill Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 124: Cargill Inc. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 125: Cargill Inc. - Key news
    • Exhibit 126: Cargill Inc. - Key offerings
  • 12.8 Gemini Edibles and Fats India Pvt. Ltd.
    • Exhibit 127: Gemini Edibles and Fats India Pvt. Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 128: Gemini Edibles and Fats India Pvt. Ltd. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 129: Gemini Edibles and Fats India Pvt. Ltd. - Key offerings
  • 12.9 Henry Lamotte Services GmbH 
    • Exhibit 130: Henry Lamotte Services GmbH - Overview
    • Exhibit 131: Henry Lamotte Services GmbH - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 132: Henry Lamotte Services GmbH - Key offerings
  • 12.10 ITOCHU Corp. 
    • Exhibit 133: ITOCHU Corp. - Overview
    • Exhibit 134: ITOCHU Corp. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 135: ITOCHU Corp. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 136: ITOCHU Corp. - Segment focus
  • 12.11 Matangi Cotton Industries 
    • Exhibit 137: Matangi Cotton Industries - Overview
    • Exhibit 138: Matangi Cotton Industries - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 139: Matangi Cotton Industries - Key offerings
  • 12.12 Oilseeds Australia Pty Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 140: Oilseeds Australia Pty Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 141: Oilseeds Australia Pty Ltd. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 142: Oilseeds Australia Pty Ltd. - Key offerings
  • 12.13 Oilseeds International Inc. 
    • Exhibit 143: Oilseeds International Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 144: Oilseeds International Inc. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 145: Oilseeds International Inc. - Key offerings
  • 12.14 PYCO Industries 
    • Exhibit 146: PYCO Industries - Overview
    • Exhibit 147: PYCO Industries - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 148: PYCO Industries - Key offerings
  • 12.15 S.R. Cotton 
    • Exhibit 149: S.R. Cotton - Overview
    • Exhibit 150: S.R. Cotton - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 151: S.R. Cotton - Key offerings
  • 12.16 Vimal Oil and Foods Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 152: Vimal Oil and Foods Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 153: Vimal Oil and Foods Ltd. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 154: Vimal Oil and Foods Ltd. - Key offerings
  • 12.17 Wilmar International Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 155: Wilmar International Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 156: Wilmar International Ltd. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 157: Wilmar International Ltd. - Key news
    • Exhibit 158: Wilmar International Ltd. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 159: Wilmar International Ltd. - Segment focus

13 Appendix

  • 13.1 Scope of the report
  • 13.2 Inclusions and exclusions checklist 
    • Exhibit 160: Inclusions checklist
    • Exhibit 161: Exclusions checklist
  • 13.3 Currency conversion rates for US$ 
    • Exhibit 162: Currency conversion rates for US$
  • 13.4 Research methodology 
    • Exhibit 163: Research methodology
    • Exhibit 164: Validation techniques employed for market sizing
    • Exhibit 165: Information sources
  • 13.5 List of abbreviations 
    • Exhibit 166: List of abbreviations
About Us

Technavio is a leading global technology research and advisory company. Their research and analysis focus on emerging market trends and provide actionable insights to help businesses identify market opportunities and develop effective strategies to optimize their market positions. With over 500 specialized analysts, Technavio's report library consists of more than 17,000 reports and counting, covering 800 technologies, spanning 50 countries. Their client base consists of enterprises of all sizes, including more than 100 Fortune 500 companies. This growing client base relies on Technavio's comprehensive coverage, extensive research, and actionable market insights to identify opportunities in existing and potential markets and assess their competitive positions within changing market scenarios.

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Are You The Collateral Damage Of Central Planners?

Are You The Collateral Damage Of Central Planners?

Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

The Conference Board – a nonprofit think…

Published

on

Are You The Collateral Damage Of Central Planners?

Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com,

The Conference Board – a nonprofit think tank that delivers cutting edge research – recently published its latest Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United States.  The findings were a giant bummer.  In December, the LEI dropped for the tenth consecutive month.

The LEI, if you’re unfamiliar with it, consolidates various measures of economic activity, including credit, interest rate spreads, consumer expectations, building permits, new orders of goods and materials, and several other items, to assess which way the economic winds are blowing.  Over the past six months, the LEI has fallen by 4.2 percent.  This is the fastest six-month decline since the great coronavirus panic.

This week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis provided its advance estimate of Q4 U.S. gross domestic product (GDP).  For the final quarter of 2022, real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent.

How could it be that GDP is expanding while the LEI is contracting?

The most probable answer we can think of is the massive expansion of consumer debt.  For example, credit card balances hit a new record of $866 billion during Q3 2022.  That marks a year-over-year increase of 19 percent.

Americans are borrowing from their future to make ends meet today.  This may give GDP the appearance that it’s expanding.  But, in reality, the GDP expansion is merely a measurement of the rate that consumers are going broke.

The fact is the U.S. economy is traversing headlong into a recession at the worst possible time.  We expect things will get especially ugly, as consumers are operating in a world of chaos

World of Chaos

In a centrally planned economy, decisions are not made between individuals through free market mechanisms.  Instead, they’re made by politicians and bureaucrats through policies of mass market intervention.

The elites pass down their edicts.  Thou shall not use gas burning stoves, for example.  Or though shall burn corn in their gas tank.

The central planners, many of which are unelected administrators, force the decrees upon the populace.  Programs, forms, penalties, and whatever else are imposed.  Pounds of flesh must be exacted at every turn.

The real tragedy, however, the very thing that makes ultra-mega governments possible, is the monopoly on the control and issuance of money that’s granted to central bankers.  Without the Federal Reserve, the central bank to the U.S. government, and its seemingly endless supply of fake money, it would be impossible for Washington to cast its wide nets across the entire planet.

Feeding the Leviathan is only a small part of what the Fed does.  Through its control of the money supply the Fed causes a world of chaos to storm through the economy and financial markets.  When the money supply is inflated, a false demand is signaled.  Businesses and individuals change their behavior to exploit the apparent demand.

Then, when the money supply is contracted, and the rug is yanked out from under the false demand, disaster strikes.  Businesses go bankrupts.  People lose their jobs.  Stocks and real estate prices crash.

In short, the Fed’s money games make it exceedingly impossible for a wage earner to save, invest, and build real wealth.  The uncertainty this provokes turns regular wage earners into speculators and gamblers.  Here’s why…

Uncertainty and Instability

In a centrally planned economy, like America and most countries today, where people are compelled by legal tender laws to use fiat money, people must work, save, and invest with the recognition that the government will continue to arbitrarily change the rules.  The Fed may command ultra-low interest rates one year.  The next year it’s jacking them up by hundreds of basis points.

We know that central planners change course at whim and often for political reasons.  Where did the most campaign contributions come from?  Their decisions can be downright suicidal.

The 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariffs, for instance, turned a routine recession into the Great Depression.  Likewise, Fed tightening of monetary policy in 1987 drove interest rates up and triggered a massive stock market crash.

The great consumer price inflation of 2021 into the present marked the highest rate of inflation in 40 years.  And now it’s providing an instructive lesson to individuals and organizations about the uncertainty and instability that’s inherent to centrally planned economies.

As the Fed hikes rates and tightens its balance sheet in the face of a recession, many overleveraged businesses and individuals find themselves wholly unprepared for the central planner’s new set of rules.  Decisions were made in 2021 under a framework that’s radically different today.

Consider real estate investors.  Over the last decade, as interest rates were artificially suppressed by the Fed, their businesses flourished.  They could easily borrow money to buy properties to refurbish and resell at a profit.

But then raging consumer price inflation, which was manufactured by the Fed in the first place, became politically indefensible.  So, the Fed had to move to rein it in by restricting the money supply.  This pushed interest rates relatively higher and undermined the real estate market.

Investors who had planned for mortgage rates at 3 percent are being absolutely destroyed by mortgage rates at 6 percent.  Suddenly their investments don’t pencil out.  Real estate agents and mortgage brokers may find the years ahead to be extraordinarily challenging.

Are You the Collateral Damage of Central Planners?

When the Fed inflates the money supply it also inflates asset prices, including stocks, bonds, and real estate.  When it then yanks the rug, and contracts the money supply, businesses and investors face big losses.  And employees become collateral damage.

According to tech job tracker layoffs.fyi, there have been more than 200,000 technology jobs lost since the start of last year.  What’s more, in 2023 alone, not even one month into the New Year, technology companies have laid off over 67,000 employees.  What’s going on?

Right now, technology companies like Meta, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon, are discovering that the world they knew and loved over the last decade no longer exists.  As the supply of money has tightened, and the flow of speculative money into technology stocks has dried up, these companies have learned they have far too many employees who produce far too little value.

Coding senseless applications and widgets may be a viable job when there’s a seemingly endless supply of the Fed’s cheap credit being pumped into financial markets.  Take the money away, however, and those jobs are incapable of standing on their own two feet.

The point is in a centrally planned economy people are continually misled about how they should go about working, saving, and investing for the future.

Just asked the former code cruncher who was RIFed after two decades of Googling all day.  They thought they were set for life.

Instead, whether they know it or not, they’re the collateral damage of central planners.  Are you the collateral damage of central planners too?

*  *  *

You may not know it.  But you could unwittingly be wiped out be the schemes and designs of central planners.  One way to avoid becoming their collateral damage is to significantly increase your wealth.  The decks stacked against you.  But it can be done.  If you’re interested in learning how, take a look at my Financial First Aid Kit.  Inside, you’ll find everything you need to know to prosper and protect your privacy as the global economy slips into a worldwide depression.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/28/2023 - 17:30

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Schedule for Week of January 29, 2023

The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and November Case-Shiller house prices.Other key indicators include January ISM manufacturing and services surveys, and January vehicle sales.The FOMC meets this week, and the FO…

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The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and November Case-Shiller house prices.

Other key indicators include January ISM manufacturing and services surveys, and January vehicle sales.

The FOMC meets this week, and the FOMC is expected to announce a 25 bp hike in the Fed Funds rate.

----- Monday, January 30th -----

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for January. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for January.

----- Tuesday, January 31st -----

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for November. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for November.

This graph shows the Year over year change in the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 6.9% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for January. The consensus is for a reading of 44.9, down from 45.1 in December.

10:00 AM: The Q4 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau.

----- Wednesday, February 1st -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for January. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 170,000 payroll jobs added in January, down from 235,000 added in December.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for December. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in construction spending.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for December from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Job openings decreased in November to 10.458 million from 10.512 million in October

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.0, down from 48.4 in December.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The FOMC is expected to announce a 25 bp hike in the Fed Funds rate.

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for January. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 14.3 million SAAR in January, up from 13.3 million in December (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the December sales rate.

----- Thursday, February 2nd -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 200 thousand initial claims, up from 186 thousand last week.
----- Friday, February 3rd -----

Employment Recessions, Scariest Job Chart8:30 AM: Employment Report for December.   The consensus is for 185,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 3.6%.

There were 223,000 jobs added in December, and the unemployment rate was at 3.5%.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms.

The pandemic employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms. However, as of August 2022, the total number of jobs had returned and are now 1.24 million above pre-pandemic levels.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.3, up from 49.6 in December.

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US gov’t $1.5T debt interest will be equal 3X Bitcoin market cap in 2023

The U.S. will pay over $1 trillion in debt interest next year, the equivalent of three or more Bitcoin market caps at current prices.

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The U.S. will pay over $1 trillion in debt interest next year, the equivalent of three or more Bitcoin market caps at current prices.

Commentators believe that Bitcoin (BTC) bulls do not need to wait long for the United States to start printing money again.

The latest analysis of U.S. macroeconomic data has led one market strategist to predict quantitative tightening (QT) ending to avoid a “catastrophic debt crisis.”

Analyst: Fed will have “no choice” with rate cuts

The U.S. Federal Reserve continues to remove liquidity from the financial system to fight inflation, reversing years of COVID-19-era money printing.

While interest rate hikes look set to continue declining in scope, some now believe that the Fed will soon have only one option — to halt the process altogether.

“Why the Fed will have no choice but to cut or risk a catastrophic debt crisis,” Sven Henrich, founder of NorthmanTrader, summarized on Jan. 27.

“Higher for longer is a fantasy not rooted in math reality.”

Henrich uploaded a chart showing interest payments on current U.S. government expenditure, now hurtling toward $1 trillion a year.

A dizzying number, the interest comes from U.S. government debt being over $31 trillion, with the Fed printing trillions of dollars since March 2020. Since then, interest payments have increased by 42%, Henrich noted.

The phenomenon has not gone unnoticed elsewhere in crypto circles. Popular Twitter account Wall Street Silver compared the interest payments as a portion of U.S. tax revenue.

“US paid $853 Billion in Interest for $31 Trillion Debt in 2022; More than Defense Budget in 2023. If the Fed keeps rates at these levels (or higher) we will be at $1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion in interest paid on the debt,” it wrote.

“The US govt collects about $4.9 trillion in taxes.”
Interest rates on U.S. government debt chart (screenshot). Source: Wall Street Silver/ Twitter

Such a scenario might be music to the ears of those with significant Bitcoin exposure. Periods of “easy” liquidity have corresponded with increased appetite for risk assets across the mainstream investment world.

The Fed’s unwinding of that policy accompanied Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market, and a “pivot” in interest rate hikes is thus seen by many as the first sign of the “good” times returning.

Crypto pain before pleasure?

Not everyone, however, agrees that the impact on risk assets, including crypto, will be all-out positive prior to that.

Related: Bitcoin ‘so bullish’ at $23K as analyst reveals new BTC price metrics

As Cointelegraph reported, ex-BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes believes that chaos will come first, tanking Bitcoin and altcoins to new lows before any sort of long-term renaissance kicks in.

If the Fed faces a complete lack of options to avoid a meltdown, Hayes believes that the damage will have already been done before QT gives way to quantitative easing.

“This scenario is less ideal because it would mean that everyone who is buying risky assets now would be in store for massive drawdowns in performance. 2023 could be just as bad as 2022 until the Fed pivots,” he wrote in a blog post this month.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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