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Cottonseed oil market size to grow by 965.24 thousand tons from 2022 to 2027: A descriptive analysis of customer landscape, vendor assessment, and market dynamics – Technavio

Cottonseed oil market size to grow by 965.24 thousand tons from 2022 to 2027: A descriptive analysis of customer landscape, vendor assessment, and market dynamics – Technavio
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NEW YORK, Jan. 23, 2023

NEW YORK, Jan. 23, 2023 /PRNewswire/ …

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Cottonseed oil market size to grow by 965.24 thousand tons from 2022 to 2027: A descriptive analysis of customer landscape, vendor assessment, and market dynamics - Technavio

PR Newswire

NEW YORK, Jan. 23, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The global cottonseed oil market size is estimated to increase by 965.24 thousand tons from 2022 to 2027. The market's growth momentum will accelerate at a CAGR of 3.6% during the forecast period - Request a sample report

Global cottonseed oil market – Vendor analysis

Vendor offerings -
  • Archer Daniels Midland Co. - The company offers cottonseed oil for frying, spray oil, baking, and industrial margarine.
  • Aryan International - The company offers organic cottonseed oil for frying, and baking and can be used in processed food items such as mayonnaise, spicy dishes, and potato chips.
  • Asha Cotton Industries - The company offers cottonseed oil under the brand called Asha.
  • Bunge Ltd. - The company offers cottonseed oil used as margarine, edible oils, bakery and grain under various brands such as Dadla, Komili, Gagan, wholeharvest, Espiga, and El Maizal.
  • For details on vendors and their offerings – Buy the report!
Vendor landscape –

The global cottonseed oil market is fragmented, with the presence of several global as well as regional vendors. A few prominent vendors that offer cottonseed oil in the market are Archer Daniels Midland Co., Aryan International, Asha Cotton Industries, Authentic Oil Co., Bunge Ltd., Cargill Inc., Henry Lamotte Services GmbH, ITOCHU Corp., Matangi Cotton Industries, Oilseeds Australia Pty Ltd., PYCO Industries, S.R. Cotton, SULU ORGANICS Corp., Vimal Oil and Foods Ltd., Wilmar International Ltd., Gokul Refoils and Solvent Ltd., Louis Dreyfus Holding BV, and Oilseeds International Inc. and others.

The global cottonseed oil market is at its growing stage. Established vendors have started acquiring small and regional players to increase their global reach. Moreover, the market will witness the entry of several new players, which will intensify the competition among the existing players during the forecast period.

Global cottonseed oil market - Customer landscape

To help companies evaluate and develop growth strategies, the report outlines –

  • Key purchase criteria
  • Adoption rates
  • Adoption lifecycle
  • Drivers of price sensitivity

Global cottonseed oil market - Segmentation assessment

Segment overview

Technavio has segmented the market based on Product (GM cottonseed oil and Non-GM cottonseed oil) and Distribution channels (Offline and Online).

  • The GM cottonseed oil segment will grow at a significant rate during the forecast period. The segment was the major contributor to the global cottonseed oil market in 2022. The segment is expected to witness a decline due to government restrictions in countries such as India, where the sales of GM cottonseed oil are prohibited for human consumption unless approved by the government. Various organizations in India test oil products to identify the mixture of unapproved components in the product. Most of such products did not have GM ingredients labeling on the product. Therefore, the factors mentioned above indicate that the sales of GM cottonseed oil products are expected to decline during the forecast period.
Geography Overview

By geography, the global cottonseed oil market is segmented into APAC, Middle East and Africa, North America, South America, and Europe. The report provides actionable insights and estimates the contribution of all regions to the growth of the global cottonseed oil market.

  • APAC will account for 80% of the market's growth during the forecast period. Cotton production in India is expected to increase during the forecast period due to special schemes such as intensive cotton production programs launched by the government. This will positively affect the cottonseed oil market in the region during the forecast period. The various use of cottonseed oil in other industries is also expected to increase the demand for cottonseed oil in the region during the forecast period. Cottonseed oil is used for developing biodiesel in APAC, and the use of biodiesel is expected to increase due to the depletion of fossil fuels globally.

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Global Cottonseed Oil Market – Market Dynamics

Leading Drivers - The health benefits of cottonseed oil are the key factor driving the global cottonseed oil market growth. One of the growth drivers of the global cottonseed oil market is the increasing awareness among consumers about the health benefits of the consumption of cottonseed oil. For instance, Cottonseed oil is low in cholesterol content, making it popular among health-conscious consumers. Similarly, Cottonseed oil has a high smoke point, making it suitable for deep frying and cooking at high temperatures. It has a neutral taste, the taste depends on the ingredients added to it. Such factors will increase the market growth during the forecast period.

Key Trends - The availability of cold-pressed cottonseed oil is the primary trend in the global cottonseed oil market growth. The demand for cold-pressed cottonseed oil is increasing among consumers, and it is expected to remain high during the forecast period. The players in the market are also coming up with new cold-pressed cottonseed oil products. Cold pressing ensures that the product retains its natural antioxidants and natural odor and flavor. Cold pressing involves extracting the oils by pressing the fruits or seeds with a modern steel press. With increasing consumer preference for cold-pressed cottonseed oil, the global market is expected to witness high growth during the forecast period.

Major challenges - The easy availability of substitutes is a major challenge to the global cottonseed oil market growth. Cottonseed oil is widely used in cooking as it has healthy unsaturated fatty acids. Other types of vegetable oils, however, can be used as replacements for cottonseed oil in commercial and domestic cooking. Palm oil, olive oil, soybean oil, and canola oil are some alternatives to cottonseed oil. The availability of substitutes, therefore, can hamper the global cottonseed oil market during the forecast period.

Drivers, trends, and challenges have an impact on market dynamics, which can impact businesses. Find more insights in a sample report!

What are the key data covered in this cottonseed oil market report?

  • CAGR of the market during the forecast period
  • Detailed information on factors that will drive the growth of the cottonseed oil market between 2023 and 2027
  • Precise estimation of the cottonseed oil market size and its contribution to the market in focus on the parent market
  • Accurate predictions about upcoming trends and changes in consumer behavior
  • Growth of the cottonseed oil industry across APAC, Middle East and Africa, North America, South America, and Europe
  • A thorough analysis of the market's competitive landscape and detailed information about vendors
  • Comprehensive analysis of factors that will challenge the growth of cottonseed oil market vendors

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Cottonseed Oil Market Scope

Report Coverage

Details

Page number

162

Base year

2022

Historic period

2017-2021

Forecast period

2023-2027

Growth momentum & CAGR

Accelerate at a CAGR of 3.6%

Market growth 2023-2027

965.24 thousand tons

Market structure

Fragmented

YoY growth 2022-2023 (%)

2.44

Regional analysis

APAC, Middle East and Africa, North America, South America, and Europe

Performing market contribution

APAC at 80%

Key countries

US, India, China, Pakistan, and Brazil

Competitive landscape

Leading Vendors, Market Positioning of Vendors, Competitive Strategies, and Industry Risks

Key companies profiled

Archer Daniels Midland Co., Aryan International, Asha Cotton Industries, Authentic Oil Co., Bunge Ltd., Cargill Inc., Henry Lamotte Services GmbH, ITOCHU Corp., Matangi Cotton Industries, Oilseeds Australia Pty Ltd., PYCO Industries, S.R. Cotton, SULU ORGANICS Corp., Vimal Oil and Foods Ltd., Wilmar International Ltd., Gemini Edibles and Fats India Pvt. Ltd., Gokul Refoils and Solvent Ltd., Louis Dreyfus Holding BV, Maharashtra solvent extraction P Ltd., and Oilseeds International Inc.

Market dynamics

Parent market analysis, Market growth inducers and obstacles, Fast-growing and slow-growing segment analysis, COVID-19 impact and recovery analysis and future consumer dynamics, and Market condition analysis for the forecast period.

Customization purview

If our report has not included the data that you are looking for, you can reach out to our analysts and get segments customized.

Table of Contents:

1 Executive Summary

  • 1.1 Market Overview 
    • Exhibit 01: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Overview
    • Exhibit 02: Executive Summary – Data Table on Market Overview
    • Exhibit 03: Executive Summary – Chart on Global Market Characteristics
    • Exhibit 04: Executive Summary – Chart on Market by Geography
    • Exhibit 05: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by Product
    • Exhibit 06: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by Distribution Channel
    • Exhibit 07: Executive Summary – Chart on Incremental Growth
    • Exhibit 08: Executive Summary – Data Table on Incremental Growth
    • Exhibit 09: Executive Summary – Chart on Vendor Market Positioning

2 Market Landscape

  • 2.1 Market ecosystem 
    • Exhibit 10: Parent market
    • Exhibit 11: Market Characteristics

3 Market Sizing

  • 3.1 Market Definition 
    • Exhibit 12: Offerings of vendors included in the market definition
  • 3.2 Market segment analysis 
    • Exhibit 13: Market segments
  • 3.3 Market size 2022
  • 3.4 Market outlook: Forecast for 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 14: Chart on Global - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 15: Data Table on Global - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 16: Chart on Global Market- Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 17: Data Table on Global Market- Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)

4 Historic Market Size

  • 4.1 Global cottonseed oil market 2017 - 2021
    • Exhibit 18: Historic Market Size – Data Table on Global cottonseed oil market 2017 - 2021 (thousand t)
  • 4.2 Product Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 19: Historic Market Size – Product Segment 2017 - 2021 (thousand t)
  • 4.3 Distribution channel Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021
    • Exhibit 20: Historic Market Size – Distribution channel Segment 2017 - 2021 (thousand t)
  • 4.4 Geography Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 21: Historic Market Size – Geography Segment 2017 - 2021 (thousand t)
  • 4.5 Country Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 22: Historic Market Size – Country Segment 2017 - 2021 (thousand t)

5 Five Forces Analysis

  • 5.1 Five forces summary 
    • Exhibit 23: Five forces analysis - Comparison between 2022 and 2027
  • 5.2 Bargaining power of buyers 
    • Exhibit 24: Chart on Bargaining power of buyers – Impact of key factors 2022 and 2027
  • 5.3 Bargaining power of suppliers 
    • Exhibit 25: Bargaining power of suppliers – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.4 Threat of new entrants 
    • Exhibit 26: Threat of new entrants – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.5 Threat of substitutes 
    • Exhibit 27: Threat of substitutes – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.6 Threat of rivalry 
    • Exhibit 28: Threat of rivalry – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.7 Market condition 
    • Exhibit 29: Chart on Market condition - Five forces 2022 and 2027

6 Market Segmentation by Product

  • 6.1 Market segments 
    • Exhibit 30: Chart on Product - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 31: Data Table on Product - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.2 Comparison by Product 
    • Exhibit 32: Chart on Comparison by Product
    • Exhibit 33: Data Table on Comparison by Product
  • 6.3 GM cottonseed oil - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 34: Chart on GM cottonseed oil - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 35: Data Table on GM cottonseed oil - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 36: Chart on GM cottonseed oil - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 37: Data Table on GM cottonseed oil - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.4 Non-GM cottonseed oil - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 38: Chart on Non-GM cottonseed oil - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 39: Data Table on Non-GM cottonseed oil - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 40: Chart on Non-GM cottonseed oil - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 41: Data Table on Non-GM cottonseed oil - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.5 Market opportunity by Product 
    • Exhibit 42: Market opportunity by Product (thousand t)

7 Market Segmentation by Distribution Channel

  • 7.1 Market segments 
    • Exhibit 43: Chart on Distribution Channel - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 44: Data Table on Distribution Channel - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.2 Comparison by Distribution Channel 
    • Exhibit 45: Chart on Comparison by Distribution Channel
    • Exhibit 46: Data Table on Comparison by Distribution Channel
  • 7.3 Offline - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 47: Chart on Offline - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 48: Data Table on Offline - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 49: Chart on Offline - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 50: Data Table on Offline - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.4 Online - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 51: Chart on Online - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 52: Data Table on Online - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 53: Chart on Online - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 54: Data Table on Online - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.5 Market opportunity by Distribution Channel
    • Exhibit 55: Market opportunity by Distribution Channel (thousand t)

8 Customer Landscape

  • 8.1 Customer landscape overview 
    • Exhibit 56: Analysis of price sensitivity, lifecycle, customer purchase basket, adoption rates, and purchase criteria

9 Geographic Landscape

  • 9.1 Geographic segmentation 
    • Exhibit 57: Chart on Market share by geography 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 58: Data Table on Market share by geography 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.2 Geographic comparison 
    • Exhibit 59: Chart on Geographic comparison
    • Exhibit 60: Data Table on Geographic comparison
  • 9.3 APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 61: Chart on APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 62: Data Table on APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 63: Chart on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 64: Data Table on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.4 Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 65: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 66: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 67: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 68: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.5 North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 69: Chart on North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 70: Data Table on North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 71: Chart on North America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 72: Data Table on North America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.6 South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 73: Chart on South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 74: Data Table on South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 75: Chart on South America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 76: Data Table on South America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.7 Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 77: Chart on Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 78: Data Table on Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 79: Chart on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 80: Data Table on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.8 India - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 81: Chart on India - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 82: Data Table on India - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 83: Chart on India - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 84: Data Table on India - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.9 China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 85: Chart on China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 86: Data Table on China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 87: Chart on China - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 88: Data Table on China - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.10 Pakistan - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 89: Chart on Pakistan - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 90: Data Table on Pakistan - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 91: Chart on Pakistan - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 92: Data Table on Pakistan - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.11 Brazil - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 93: Chart on Brazil - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 94: Data Table on Brazil - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 95: Chart on Brazil - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 96: Data Table on Brazil - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.12 US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 97: Chart on US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 98: Data Table on US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 (thousand t)
    • Exhibit 99: Chart on US - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 100: Data Table on US - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.13 Market opportunity by geography 
    • Exhibit 101: Market opportunity by geography (thousand t)

10 Drivers, Challenges, and Trends

  • 10.1 Market drivers
  • 10.2 Market challenges
  • 10.3 Impact of drivers and challenges 
    • Exhibit 102: Impact of drivers and challenges in 2022 and 2027
  • 10.4 Market trends

11 Vendor Landscape

  • 11.1 Overview
  • 11.2 Vendor landscape 
    • Exhibit 103: Overview on Criticality of inputs and Factors of differentiation
  • 11.3 Landscape disruption 
    • Exhibit 104: Overview on factors of disruption
  • 11.4 Industry risks 
    • Exhibit 105: Impact of key risks on business

12 Vendor Analysis

  • 12.1 Vendors covered 
    • Exhibit 106: Vendors covered
  • 12.2 Market positioning of vendors 
    • Exhibit 107: Matrix on vendor position and classification
  • 12.3 Archer Daniels Midland Co. 
    • Exhibit 108: Archer Daniels Midland Co. - Overview
    • Exhibit 109: Archer Daniels Midland Co. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 110: Archer Daniels Midland Co. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 111: Archer Daniels Midland Co. - Segment focus
  • 12.4 Aryan International 
    • Exhibit 112: Aryan International - Overview
    • Exhibit 113: Aryan International - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 114: Aryan International - Key offerings
  • 12.5 Asha Cotton Industries 
    • Exhibit 115: Asha Cotton Industries - Overview
    • Exhibit 116: Asha Cotton Industries - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 117: Asha Cotton Industries - Key offerings
  • 12.6 Bunge Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 118: Bunge Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 119: Bunge Ltd. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 120: Bunge Ltd. - Key news
    • Exhibit 121: Bunge Ltd. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 122: Bunge Ltd. - Segment focus
  • 12.7 Cargill Inc. 
    • Exhibit 123: Cargill Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 124: Cargill Inc. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 125: Cargill Inc. - Key news
    • Exhibit 126: Cargill Inc. - Key offerings
  • 12.8 Gemini Edibles and Fats India Pvt. Ltd.
    • Exhibit 127: Gemini Edibles and Fats India Pvt. Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 128: Gemini Edibles and Fats India Pvt. Ltd. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 129: Gemini Edibles and Fats India Pvt. Ltd. - Key offerings
  • 12.9 Henry Lamotte Services GmbH 
    • Exhibit 130: Henry Lamotte Services GmbH - Overview
    • Exhibit 131: Henry Lamotte Services GmbH - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 132: Henry Lamotte Services GmbH - Key offerings
  • 12.10 ITOCHU Corp. 
    • Exhibit 133: ITOCHU Corp. - Overview
    • Exhibit 134: ITOCHU Corp. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 135: ITOCHU Corp. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 136: ITOCHU Corp. - Segment focus
  • 12.11 Matangi Cotton Industries 
    • Exhibit 137: Matangi Cotton Industries - Overview
    • Exhibit 138: Matangi Cotton Industries - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 139: Matangi Cotton Industries - Key offerings
  • 12.12 Oilseeds Australia Pty Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 140: Oilseeds Australia Pty Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 141: Oilseeds Australia Pty Ltd. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 142: Oilseeds Australia Pty Ltd. - Key offerings
  • 12.13 Oilseeds International Inc. 
    • Exhibit 143: Oilseeds International Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 144: Oilseeds International Inc. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 145: Oilseeds International Inc. - Key offerings
  • 12.14 PYCO Industries 
    • Exhibit 146: PYCO Industries - Overview
    • Exhibit 147: PYCO Industries - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 148: PYCO Industries - Key offerings
  • 12.15 S.R. Cotton 
    • Exhibit 149: S.R. Cotton - Overview
    • Exhibit 150: S.R. Cotton - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 151: S.R. Cotton - Key offerings
  • 12.16 Vimal Oil and Foods Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 152: Vimal Oil and Foods Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 153: Vimal Oil and Foods Ltd. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 154: Vimal Oil and Foods Ltd. - Key offerings
  • 12.17 Wilmar International Ltd. 
    • Exhibit 155: Wilmar International Ltd. - Overview
    • Exhibit 156: Wilmar International Ltd. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 157: Wilmar International Ltd. - Key news
    • Exhibit 158: Wilmar International Ltd. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 159: Wilmar International Ltd. - Segment focus

13 Appendix

  • 13.1 Scope of the report
  • 13.2 Inclusions and exclusions checklist 
    • Exhibit 160: Inclusions checklist
    • Exhibit 161: Exclusions checklist
  • 13.3 Currency conversion rates for US$ 
    • Exhibit 162: Currency conversion rates for US$
  • 13.4 Research methodology 
    • Exhibit 163: Research methodology
    • Exhibit 164: Validation techniques employed for market sizing
    • Exhibit 165: Information sources
  • 13.5 List of abbreviations 
    • Exhibit 166: List of abbreviations
About Us

Technavio is a leading global technology research and advisory company. Their research and analysis focus on emerging market trends and provide actionable insights to help businesses identify market opportunities and develop effective strategies to optimize their market positions. With over 500 specialized analysts, Technavio's report library consists of more than 17,000 reports and counting, covering 800 technologies, spanning 50 countries. Their client base consists of enterprises of all sizes, including more than 100 Fortune 500 companies. This growing client base relies on Technavio's comprehensive coverage, extensive research, and actionable market insights to identify opportunities in existing and potential markets and assess their competitive positions within changing market scenarios.

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Walmart Hits Record High After Earnings Beat, Despite Soft Guidance, Warning About “Choiceful” Consumers Spending Less

Walmart Hits Record High After Earnings Beat, Despite Soft Guidance, Warning About "Choiceful" Consumers Spending Less

Walmart shares hit…

Published

on

Walmart Hits Record High After Earnings Beat, Despite Soft Guidance, Warning About "Choiceful" Consumers Spending Less

Walmart shares hit a new all-time high after the largest bricks and mortar retailer reported earnings that beat expectations despite providing guidance that was marginally softer, as choosy shoppers nevertheless kept buying in its stores.

Here is what the company report for the final quarter of 2023:

  • Adjusted EPS $1.80 (excluding impact, net of tax, from a net gain of $0.23 on equity and other investments) vs. $1.71 y/y, beating estimate of $1.65
  • Revenue $173.39 billion, +5.7% y/y, beating estimate $170.66 billion
    • Total US comparable sales ex-gas +3.9%, estimate +3.2%
    • Walmart-only US stores comparable sales ex-gas +4%, estimate +3.12%
    • Sam's Club US comparable sales ex-gas +3.1%, estimate +2.99%
  • Change in US E-Commerce sales +17%, beating estimate +15.5%
  • Adjusted operating income $7.25 billion, beating estimate $6.79 billion

Of the metrics reported, however, the most important one is that Walmart’s same-store sales (ex fuel), rose 4% YoY for US stores (of which net sales was 3.% and eCommerce added 17%). Wall Street was expecting 3.1% so the number was clearly a beat and was driven by "strength in grocery, health and wellness, offset by softness in general merchandise", and was the result of higher transactions (+4.3%) offsetting average ticket prices, which dropped 0.3% YoY. Still, the number is a far cry from the 8.3% comp sales a year ago.

In keeping with the noted softness in general merchandise, the world’s largest retailer delivered softer guidance for the current fiscal year, as it expects consumers to be selective in their spending:

  • For full-year 2025, WMT sees
    • Net sales +3% to +4%, slower than growth from the prior year, and adjusted EPS $6.70 to $7.12, slightly disappointing vs the median consensus estimate of $7.09
    • Capital expenditures approximately 3.0% to 3.5% of net sales
  • For Q1, 2025, WMT sees sees adjusted EPS $1.48 to $1.56.

Discussing the quarter, CEO Doug McMillan said that "we crossed $100 billion in eCommerce sales and drove share gains as our customer experience metrics improved, evenduring our highest volume days leading up to the holidays"

Commenting on customer "selectivity", CFO John Rainey said that “they are being choiceful" as consumers continue to spend less per trip but have been shopping frequently, adding that the company expects some resilience to continue for the rest of the year.

There was more good news: Walmart is gaining share in nearly every category, according to Rainey, with e-commerce among the factors driving growth as the company trims losses associated with handling online orders. Furthermore, while deflation is still a possibility, the company expects it to be less likely based on what it observed during the latest quarter.

That said, while grabbing more spending with low-priced groceries and other basics, Walmart has been cautious in recent months about the health of the consumer amid persistent inflation and higher interest rates. As noted above, US consumers have been buying cheaper products and seeking value, as they pull back from discretionary products like general merchandise. That has resulted in softer sales for some retailers, including Target Corp. and Home Depot Inc. Other big-box retailers are set to report their quarterly earnings in the coming weeks.

As Bloomberg notes, the recent moderation in inflation is another challenge for Walmart and other retail operators that have passed down price increases to consumers over the past few years. This has contributed to higher dollar sales for companies, followed by an uptick in revenue during the pandemic when people bought more groceries and home goods. Such increases are slowing overall, though inflation remains stubborn in some areas like groceries and shelter.

Similar to all of its major competitors, Walmart has been beefing up automation in warehouses and stores in recent years, while remodeling locations to make them more modern. Pickup and delivery businesses continue to expand, driving share gains among upper-income households and fueling growth of the Walmart+ membership program.

Separately, Walmart said it agreed to buy smart-TV maker Vizio Holding Corp. for about $2.3 billion. The deal would accelerate the retailer’s advertising business, called Walmart Connect, and help Walmart and its advertisers engage more with customers. Walmart has been expanding Walmart Connect and other nonretail businesses that have faster growth and better margins. The deal announcement confirmed a Wall Street Journal report from last week. Vizio shares soared 15% in Tuesday premarket trading.

As for WMT, the Bentonville, after the stock gained 16% over the past year, it jumped another 5.7% on Tuesday rising to a new all time high as investors were clearly satisfied with what they saw.

Full investor presentation below (pdf link)

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/20/2024 - 10:17

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Estimating US Recession Risk Using Economic Data For States

What are the choices for monitoring and estimating recession risk? Slightly lower than the number of stars in the universe. Ok, I’m exaggerating, but…

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What are the choices for monitoring and estimating recession risk? Slightly lower than the number of stars in the universe. Ok, I’m exaggerating, but not much. The good news: the search for robust, relatively reliable indicators narrows the field dramatically. But there’s always more to learn, in part because the supply of data sets is vast, increasingly so. Which brings me to another indicator that looks promising: state coincident indexes.

Every state’s economy is, in some degree, unique, although the gravitational pull of the national economy casts a long shadow. Tracking each state economy separately, and then aggregating the results, provides a different spin on the US business cycle compared with national indicators. Think of it as a bottom-up model vs. the standard top-down approach via US retail sales, industrial production, etc.

Conveniently, the Philly Fed publishes monthly coincident indicators for each state. Aggregating the 50 signals into a composite index provides a somewhat different view of the US business cycle vs. traditional top-down metrics. There are several ways to process the numbers – my preference, shown in the chart below, is a 3-month-change model. If a state’s 3-month change is negative (positive), the signal is negative (positive). Summing the negatives and positives provides a national profile. The current reading is 0.48 — in other words, 48% of the states are posting negative 3-month changes for their respective coincident indicator. As shown below, the composite reading maps fairly closely with NBER-defined downturns, and so the current signal is issuing a warning, albeit a warning that has yet to provide what might be thought of as passing the point of no return. But it’s close.

The readings vary from 0 (no negative 3-month changes) to 1.0 (all 50 states are reporting negative 3-month changes). A quick review of the historical record suggests that the US is on the verge of slipping into recession.

But before we ring the alarm bell, there are some caveats to consider. First, a similarly high reading 20-plus years ago turned out to be a false signal. The next couple of months will likely determine if a repeat performance is brewing, or not.

Second, no one indicator is flawless, as we’ve learned over the last couple of years – especially in recent history, when pandemic-related events have created no shortage of macro surprises.

Another reason to reserve judgment, at least for now: a range of other business cycle indicators tracked in The US Business Cycle Risk Report (a sister publication of CapitalSpectator.com) continue to show a clear growth bias. But as reported in this week’s issue, there are some nascent signs of softer economic activity and so it’s possible that the coincident state indicators are an early warning that the tide is shifting.

The most reliable methodology for estimating recession risk in real time is building an ensemble model that combines various modeling applications that are complimentary. Although any one model will excel at a given point in time, quite often the best-performing indicator changes through time. To minimize the risk that’s inherent in any one signal, The US Business Cycle Risk Report crunches the numbers on multiple indicators, which has proven to be close to optimal for balancing the need for timely signals that minimize false signaling.

Despite the caveats, the coincident state model adds another dimension to the mix and provides some complimentary input to The US Business Cycle Risk Report’s existing suite of indicators. Accordingly, I’ll be adding the composite state coincident data to the newsletter’s weekly updates.

The next batch of coincident state updates for January is scheduled for later this month. Meantime, I’ll be carefully reviewing the incoming data for fresh clues that support or reject the suggestion that trouble’s brewing via the state coincident indicators.


How is recession risk evolving? Monitor the outlook with a subscription to:
The US Business Cycle Risk Report


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Air Canada Says Freight Demand Beginning To Improve

Air Canada Says Freight Demand Beginning To Improve

By Eric Kulisch of FreightWaves

Air Canada expects the slow recovery in cargo volume…

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Air Canada Says Freight Demand Beginning To Improve

By Eric Kulisch of FreightWaves

Air Canada expects the slow recovery in cargo volume that began in the fourth quarter to quicken in 2024, aided by the addition of two more freighter aircraft, but doesn’t anticipate gains in pricing power, Mark Galardo, executive vice president for network planning and revenue management, said Friday.

The cargo division within Air Canada (TSX: AC) currently operates five converted and two factory-built Boeing 767-300 freighters. It is scheduled this year to receive two cargo jets converted from passenger configuration, but delivery of a third plane has been delayed until 2025 because of lingering supply chain and labor challenges faced by aerospace manufacturing companies, said Galardo on the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call.

The company nonetheless expects cargo capacity to increase 6% to 8% this year with the addition of the two freighters and more passenger aircraft that also carry cargo. The converted freighters are retired Air Canada passenger jets that are being retrofitted by aftermarket aerospace firms for carrying large containers in the main cabin area.

Cargo revenue fell 15% year over year in the fourth quarter to US$181 million on soft demand and lower yields, Air Canada reported. The three-month period represented an improvement from prior months as the downturn in freight transportation that gripped the air logistics industry for nearly 18 months began to ease. Full-year cargo revenue fell 27% to $253.7 million.

At the end of 2023, Canada’s flag carrier operated four more 767 freighters than at the end of 2022. Freighters were reintroduced at the company two years ago. Increased freighter operations to Central and South America and to Europe partially offset the year-over-year decline. Air Canada also enhanced its interline cooperation with Emirates SkyCargo, which allows customers to book interline cargo shipments through the Emirates SkyCargo flights, including between the Americas and Southeast Asia and India, through key European hubs. 

“We had a bit of a slower start in January, but as we look into February and beyond we’re starting to see volumes pick up and yields also pick up. And our 2024 assumption on cargo is more volume-driven than yield-driven. So we’re starting to see some positive indicators,” Galardo told analysts. “We’ve taken all the necessary measures to position ourselves to take advantage of the recovery. This includes strategically adjusting our freighter plan so that we can keep focusing on proven overall results for the long term and on maximizing cargo network value for our entire fleet.”

Air Canada in late September canceled an order with Boeing for two 777-200 production freighters because of the reversal in airfreight demand following the pandemic-fueled boom for air transport that lasted until early 2022. It then ordered 18 787-10 Dreamliners, including two that were swapped for the 777 freighters. Management, at the time, reiterated its commitment to operating freighters, saying that it needed to take a more measured approach to fleet expenditures and keep more cash available for other purposes.

Air Canada expects another leap in cargo business when the 787-10s begin entering the fleet in late 2025. But ongoing safety and manufacturing problems at Boeing could upset the delivery schedule. Production flaws have previously prevented customers from receiving Dreamliners on time.

“As we eventually receive the larger 787-10s, taking advantage of global cargo flows through our hubs will become an important lever for further diversifying revenue streams,” said Galardo. 

Air Canada performed well on cargo against its peers during the fourth quarter. Delta Air Lines and American Airlines saw cargo revenue slide 24% during the period, and Korean Air said its cargo sales fell nearly 29%. The percentage change in revenue at Air Canada was on par with the 14.8% decline at United Airlines. On a total dollar basis, Air Canada cargo revenue was less than that of the other carriers. The three major U.S. airlines are much larger than Air Canada but also do not have a dedicated cargo fleet. Delta was the closest to Air Canada at $188 million in revenue.

Overall, Air Canada generated $3.9 billion in revenue, up 11% from the prior year, during the final three months of 2023. But earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $386.4 million came in below expectations. On an adjusted basis, the company lost $32.6 million versus a loss of $162 million the year before. Higher wages, maintenance costs and flying volumes pushed expenses up 8%. Inflation is expected to increase costs another 4.5% to 5% in 2024, offset in part by productivity gains.

Tyler Durden Tue, 02/20/2024 - 06:30

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