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Cooling Housing Market Will Divide the Country in 2023

Cooling Housing Market Will Divide the Country in 2023
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, Jan. 5, 2023

Knock Buyer-Seller Market Index shows that buyers will have more leverage in the West, while sellers will maintain an advantage in the East
U.S. housing marke…

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Cooling Housing Market Will Divide the Country in 2023

PR Newswire

NEW YORK, Jan. 5, 2023

Knock Buyer-Seller Market Index shows that buyers will have more leverage in the West, while sellers will maintain an advantage in the East

  • U.S. housing market will continue to move in the direction of buyers following the spring homebuying season
  • The top five buyers' markets for 2023 are Phoenix; Colorado Springs, Colo.; Las Vegas, Dallas and Denver
  • Fayetteville, N.C.; Harrisburg Pa.; Syracuse, N.Y.; Hartford, Conn. and York, Pa. top the list of the best markets for sellers
  • By year-end 2023, 36 markets are forecast to be buyers' markets, 41 markets will remain sellers' markets and 23 will be neutral

NEW YORK, Jan. 5, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- As the reality of high home prices and higher mortgage rates sets in, U.S. homebuyers will gain some leverage in 2023. However, shoppers are in for very different experiences depending on where in the U.S. they are looking to move, according to the Knock Buyer-Seller Market Index 2023 forecast released today, which shows a clear divide between the best markets for buyers versus sellers.

Home shoppers will find different scenarios depending where in the U.S. they are looking to buy.

According to the Index, which analyzes key housing market metrics to measure the degree to which the nation's 100 largest markets favor home buyers or sellers, the top 5 buyers' markets are west of the Mississippi, while the top 5 sellers' markets are concentrated in the East Coast.

"With home prices and interest rates cutting into purchasing power, the relocation hotspots where prices grew quickly during the pandemic will increasingly favor buyers in 2023, while more mid-sized markets offering good job opportunities and affordable housing will be the top performing real estate markets in 2023," said Knock Co-Founder and CEO Sean Black. "This will usher in a more balanced housing market. However, home shoppers will find different scenarios depending where in the U.S. they are looking."

In like a lion, out like a lamb

As 2022 came to a close it was clear the combination of high home prices and interest rates put an end to the frenetic pandemic housing market. Based on the November 2022 Buyer-Seller Index, the latest month of available data, inventory rose in 80 of the 100 largest housing markets and all but two moved at least marginally toward favoring buyers.

A total of 2,336,520 homes were sold in the 100 largest housing markets in the first 11 months of 2022, down 19% from a year earlier. Median days on market increased to 22, up from 13 in November 2021. The average sale-to-list ratio, which measures how close homes are selling to their asking price, was 98%, down from 99% in October and 100% a year ago. There were 14 buyers' markets in November 2022, 46 markets favored sellers and 40 were in neutral territory.

Hot pandemic markets become 2023 top buyers' markets

This year's top buyers' markets are all west of the Mississippi and were popular relocation spots during the pandemic, which caused home prices to accelerate at a faster pace than the rest of the nation on average. Prices in the top five buyers' markets rose by 44.6% on average between January 2020 and last month, compared to 34.9% for the rest of the nation during the same period.

In rank order, the top 5 buyers' metros for 2023 are Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Ariz.; Colorado Springs, Colo.; Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.; Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas and Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo.

Although these markets will see median home price growth moderate and even decline from their pandemic peaks in 2023, prices are forecast to end the year 38% above pre-pandemic levels, 3% higher than the national average change.

A sign of a slowing market, inventory is expected to grow significantly (54.4% on average) in the top buyers' markets. Denver will see inventory grow by nearly 100%, ranking second behind Charlotte, N.C., which is projected to lead the nation in inventory growth at 148.3%.

Sellers will have the advantage in smaller, more affordable markets

Concentrated in the East Coast, the top sellers' markets are forecast to see the strongest growth in home sales and listing prices in 2023. They tend to be smaller to mid-size markets with populations under 1 million, where home prices remain affordable. Despite increasing by as much as 50% since January 2020, prices in the top sellers' markets remain well below the national median home price of $374,000.

Fayetteville, N.C.; Harrisburg-Carlisle, Pa.; Syracuse, N.Y.; Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, Conn. and York-Hanover, Pa., top the list of Knock's best markets for sellers in 2023.

Home sales across the top sellers' markets are forecast to rise by between 5% and 18% over the next 12 months. The exception is Hartford, Conn., where home sales are projected to dip by 1.7%. In contrast, sales are forecast to decline by 16.3% for the rest of the nation by the end of 2023. On average, the median home price in these markets is expected to increase 8.3%, compared to the less than 1% increase forecast for the U.S. as a whole. Days on market will average 15 days, half the forecasted national median of 30 days, while average months' supply will be just one month, compared to 3.1 months for the 100 largest markets.

Housing market will gain momentum in the spring before turning to buyers

According to the Index, the nation's 100 largest housing markets will continue to teeter in neutral territory over the next few months, gain some momentum toward sellers in the spring and then move firmly into buyers' market territory by summer – a trend that will continue through the end of the year.

By November 2023, 36 markets are forecast to be buyers' markets (up from 14 in November 2022), 41 markets will remain sellers' markets (down from 46), and 23 will be neutral.

As the market continues to cool, the 100 largest markets are projected to see home sales decline by 16.3% year over year. Fayetteville, Ark., will face the largest falloff at -22.9%.

By the middle of 2023, months' supply will surpass three months for the first time since the summer of 2019. Charlotte, N.C., is forecast to lead the nation in months' supply at 12.7 – double that of Port St. Lucie, Fla., which is forecast to have the second-highest months' supply at 6.2.

Nationally, the median sales price is forecast to peak in June at $386,000, consistent with a typical home selling season. By November, the median price is forecast to be $374,000, basically flat compared to November 2022.  Median days on market will continue to rise throughout 2023, reaching 30 days across the U.S. by November 2023, with Colorado Springs, Colo., leading the nation at 121 days.

Average sale prices across large housing markets are forecast to remain lower than the average ask price in each of the next 12 months, keeping the sale-to-list ratio below 100% through 2023.

Top 5 buyers' markets 2023

1. Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, Ariz.
November 2022 median home price: $426,990
Forecasted 2023 home price change: -5.4%
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: +6.0%
Forecasted 2023 month's supply: 3.7 months
Forecasted sale-to-list price ratio: 96%

Phoenix saw home prices grow by 47.4% between January 2020 and November 2022. However, it was one of the first metros to see sales slow and prices begin to recede when interest rates began to rise in 2022. For buyers, Phoenix remains an affordable alternative to high-cost West Coast markets, such as Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle. It offers residents more than 200 golf courses, Spring Training, all four major professional sports leagues and numerous cultural events. Much more than a place to retire, Phoenix is headquarters to five Fortune 500 companies: Freeport McMoRan, PetSmart, Avnet, Republic Services and Insight Enterprises.

2. Colorado Springs, Colo.
November 2022 median home price: $425,000
Forecasted 2023 home price change: +1.2%
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: -18.3%
Forecasted 2023 month's supply: 4.2 months
Forecasted sale-to-list price ratio: 97%

Colorado Springs was viewed as an affordable alternative to high-priced West Coast metros and even neighboring Denver, where the median home price is 38% higher. Located at the foot of Pikes Peak, Colorado Springs is known for its great weather with over 300 days of sunshine a year, walkable neighborhoods, easy access to the outdoors and a vibrant downtown.

3. Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.
November 2022 median home price: $386,000
Forecasted 2023 home price change: -6.6%
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: +17.6%
Forecasted 2023 month's supply: 4.8 months
Forecasted sale-to-list price ratio: 96%

The pandemic housing boom pushed the median home price in Las Vegas up 57.9% between January 2020 and May 2022, when prices peaked at $450,000. Home prices are forecast to dip below the national median to $361,000 in 2023, and buyers will have more choices as months' supply rises to 4.8 months by November 2023. Known as the Entertainment Capital of the World, Las Vegas offers residents trendy neighborhoods, family-friendly master-planned communities, world-class dining and professional sports. It also has a strong job market beyond tourism in the healthcare, logistics and technology sectors and no state income tax.

4. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas
November 2022 median home price: $380,000
Forecasted 2023 home price change: +6.7%
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: -9.0%
Forecasted 2023 month's supply: 4.2 months
Forecasted sale-to-list price ratio: 95%

Unlike the three top buyers' markets, prices in the Dallas metro have risen significantly since last year, and are forecast to continue to increase throughout 2023. Despite the rising prices, Dallas had the sixth largest inventory of homes on the market in the nation in November at 14,751. With inventory forecast to grow to 27,000 over the next 12 months, Dallas buyers will have more options. Offering a strong job market and the amenities of a big city, Dallas is considered one of the best places to live in Texas.

5. Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo.
November 2022 median home price: $555,000
Forecasted 2023 home price change: +0.7%
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: -18.2%
Forecasted 2023 month's supply: 3.8 months
Forecasted sale-to-list price ratio: 97%

In the next year, Denver will have seen one of the largest swings in housing demand. Twelve months ago, a home spent just six days on the market. This is forecast to rise to 36 days by November 2023, well above the national median of 30 days and one of the highest days on market of the 100 largest markets. Well before the pandemic, Denver was a relocation hotspot. Home prices have ranked among the most expensive in the nation since November 2016, the beginning of Knock's Buyer-Seller Market Index. Despite the market's slowdown, they are projected to continue to rise in 2023, hitting $559,000 by year-end. In addition to beautiful landscapes and four seasons of outdoor activities, Denver offers its residents a reasonable cost of living, museums and cultural events as well as a booming tech market.

Top 5 sellers' markets 2023

1. Fayetteville, N.C.
November 2022 median home price: $221,500
Forecasted 2023 home price change: +9.6%
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: +17.8%
Forecasted 2023 month's supply: 0.3 months
Forecasted sale-to-list price ratio: 100%

Best known as the home of Fort Bragg, the nation's largest military base, Fayetteville offers its residents an affordable place to live (the cost of living is 20% lower than that of the national average) with the diversity of a larger city and the proximity to the state's mountains and beaches. The city has attracted a large number of companies, including General Dynamics, Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company and Wal-Mart, creating jobs for residents. It also offers one of the best retail markets in the country, entertainment, minor league baseball, quality healthcare and good schools. The strong housing market is evidenced by the fact that the median home price in Fayetteville is up 50.2% since January 2020, and is forecast to end 2023 at $243,000, up 9.6%.

2. Harrisburg-Carlisle, Pa.
November 2022 median home price: $237,000
Forecasted 2023 home price change: +7.5%
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: +3.8%
Forecasted 2023 month's supply: 1.0 month
Forecasted sale-to-list price ratio: 100%

The state capital of Pennsylvania, Harrisburg sits on the Susquehanna River. Etched in American history for the roles it played in the Civil War and Industrial Revolution, Harrisburg continues to grow and evolve, offering residents a strong job market and access to recreational activities, such as hiking, climbing and camping as well as the big city. New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, D.C. are all a few hours away by car. It also provides a more affordable housing market and a lower cost of living than many of the East Coast's larger metro areas. Since January 2020, home prices in Harrisburg have increased by 28.2%, and are forecast to reach $255,000 by the end of 2023.

3. Syracuse, N.Y.
November 2022 median home price: $195,000
Forecasted 2023 home price change: +6.4%
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: +5.2%
Forecasted 2023 month's supply: 1.5 months
Forecasted sale-to-list price ratio: 101%

Mention Syracuse and your mind immediately goes to snow – the central New York metro typically gets more than 120 inches per year. But Syracuse has much more to offer, making it a desirable and affordable place to start a career, raise a family and retire. Home to Syracuse University and adjacent to Onondaga Lake, residents have access to college and watersports. Armory Square boasts bars and restaurants, and the city hosts a number of food and music festivals and family-friendly venues. Home prices have increased 35.4% since January 2020, and are forecast to reach $207,000 over the next 12 months.

4. Hartford-East Hartford-Middletown, Conn.
November 2022 median home price: $300,000
Forecasted 2023 home price change: +8.5%
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: -1.7%
Forecasted 2023 month's supply: 1.5 months
Forecasted sale-to-list price ratio: 102%

One of the oldest cities in the U.S. and Connecticut's capital city, Hartford has a growing job market, affordable housing market and top-rated universities. This makes Hartford an attractive place to call home for a diverse population. The city's central business district offers galleries, restaurants and entertainment venues, while the nearby vineyards, state parks and mountains provide year-round outdoor activities. Nicknamed the Insurance Capital of the World, Hartford is home to Aetna, The Hartford, Travelers, United Healthcare, Lincoln Financial Group and Cigna. It also has vibrant healthcare, financial services and education industries. Home prices have increased 36.4% since January 2020, and are forecast to reach $326,000 over the next 12 months.

5. York-Hanover, Pa.
November 2022 median home price: $238,000
Forecasted 2023 home price change: +9.6%
Forecasted 2023 home sales change: +8.3%
Forecasted 2023 month's supply: 1.0 month
Forecasted sale-to-list price ratio: 100%

Rich in history, having served as the home of the Continental Congress, the birthplace of the Articles of Confederation and the capital of the U.S., York offers its residents a dense suburban feel. An easy commute to the Maryland-Pennsylvania border, the cost of living in York is lower than nearby communities, making it an affordable housing option for young professionals and families with children. Restored Colonial-era buildings are a reminder of the city's past, while York's shops, flourishing arts community, craft breweries and minor league baseball team provide residents with a number of options to get out and about. For outdoor enthusiasts, Lake Redman offers kayaking, hiking and fishing, while skiing and snowboarding are just a short drive away. Home prices have increased 33.7% since January 2020, and are forecast to reach $261,000 over the next 12 months.

.To view the full report, including rankings of the top buyers' and sellers' markets, charts and metro-level data for the 100 largest markets, please visit: https://www.knock.com/blog/cooling-housing-market-will-divide-the-country-in-2023/

Methodology

The index comprises six measures: the ratio of average sale to asking price, number of homes sold, number of active listings, median days on market, median sale price and the rolling supply of homes in a given month. It uses data on more than 150 million properties in the nation's 100 largest, most active metropolitan areas since November 2016 from a number of sources. Median days on market data is not available for seven of the 100 largest markets (Boise, Idaho; Richmond, Va.; Seattle; Allentown, Pa.; Portland, Maine; New Haven, Conn. and Bridgeport, Conn.)

Index values range from -4 to 4, with lower values indicating a relatively favorable market for buyers and higher values indicating a relatively favorable market for sellers. Index values ranging around zero denote a somewhat neutral housing market.

About Knock

Knock is an innovative home finance tech company making home buying simple and certain. Our flagship HomeSwap™ product empowers consumers with a non-contingent, cash-like offer right on their phone to buy the home they want before selling the home they have, providing the certainty of locking in their dream home with the convenience of not having to live through repairs or showings of the old home.

Launched in 2015 by founding team members of Trulia.com, Knock currently operates in 75 markets nationwide. Knock has raised $900 million in debt and equity from top-tier investors, including Foundry Group, Greycroft, RRE, Parker89 and The National Association of Realtors®, giving NAR's 1.5 million members the ability to market Knock's homeownership solutions to their clients. For more information visit: knock.com.

Contact: pr@knock.com

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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March 9, 2024

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

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March 8, 2024

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January…

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Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month

Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush. 

What happened? Let's take a closer look.

On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.

Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.

Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K,  a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!

Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.

To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).

And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...

... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...

... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.

While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.

But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).

This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.

There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).

Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!

But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!

The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!

Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...

Source: St Louis Fed FRED Native Born and Foreign Born

... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!

This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...

... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.

Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/08/2024 - 13:30

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