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CDC Vs. Common Sense

CDC Vs. Common Sense

Authored by Peter Alexander via The American Institute for Economic Research,

The death of Common Sense begins with the words initiated by the morass of Bureaucracy couched in safety and security. Indeed, and according..

Published

3 years ago

on

CDC Vs. Common Sense

Authored by Peter Alexander via The American Institute for Economic Research,

The death of Common Sense begins with the words initiated by the morass of Bureaucracy couched in safety and security. Indeed, and according to past President Ronald Reagan, the most frightening words to hear in the English language are para ‘We’re here from the government and we’re here to help you!’ The underpinnings of such beginnings appear benign and with benign neglect the malignancy storms through, metastasizing arboreally through the veins of the entire system. The world is seeing such a death these days. 

We argue that the real virus is ‘fear’ and ‘fear’ stops people from thinking clearly. Governments and bureaucrats and their expert advisors are depending on people not thinking clearly, and are providing knee-jerk reactions to every facet of the pandemic which only drives fear unnecessarily. We also point out that the fuel for this fear rests on the reliance of our leadership on wholly unreliable PCR testing for SARS-CoV-2. In effect this has led to a fear-based PCRdemic that has not only paralyzed society but has led to massive societal disruption and unnecessary suffering and death.

The CDC has again revealed itself to be a non-autonomous entity grifting on the illogic of pseudoscience with its recent guidance regarding Covid-19 vaccines and travel as well as how vaccinated people can safely visit others. This once glorified agency has stooped to issue conflicting and at times illogical and frankly misleading guidance on Covid which can confuse not only the public, but healthcare providers and policy makers alike. It is troubling that the reports and guidance being produced by the CDC are at times contradictory and very confusing and make no sense. We focus first on the foremost and most disturbing issues of the day: The current guidance follows in step with Dr. Anthony Fauci’s suggestions when he opined that children will be vaccinated in early 2022. 

How could Dr. Fauci, who we assume reads the science and understands the science, make this statement when he knows that 1) children were not included in any of the Covid-19 vaccine research studies and as such, the results cannot be extrapolated to them and 2); these actions are even more perplexing particularly if one is ‘following the science,’ which in this case simply does not exist? It needs to be reemphasized that the risk for the development of serious SARS-CoV-2 infection in children is infinitesimally small in the first place (risk is in the range of 0.002%). They are also at very low risk of transmitting virus to other children, to adults, to their teachers, or of taking it home. We know there are exceptions as there are for any infectious pathogen, yet these exceptions remain exceedingly rare. This is not heresy and is a fact, based on undisputed science. This recommendation made by Dr. Fauci does not consider the long-term risks to children, especially given their low probability of infection and even lower probability of illness from the virus. Inserting the potential of harm where little to no risk exists is tantamount to gross malpractice in our opinion.

We must look at these issues as a risk management question and balance (trade-off) the benefits versus the harms of alternative courses of action. We have to balance the risk and the reward and make our decision based on how the balance settles out. These concepts are mainstays of public health policy and science and yet do not seem to play a meaningful role in the development of the CDC’s and Dr. Fauci’s guidelines. In fact, we find it exceedingly difficult to justify the administration of an experimental vaccine into any population cohort that has virtually no disease risk. This comes into very sharp focus when it is also understood that until long-term data are available post-vaccination, why would we even consider the administration of an experimental vaccine to children? This is a vaccine that might potentially have longer-term harms that are as yet unrecognized. This philosophy is no different than that applied to any new pharmacological agent, and especially so for still-experimental vaccines. Remember, these Covid vaccines are under emergency use authorization (EUA) and are decidedly still experimental. There is known risk (albeit low) to the healthiest of persons when they take into the body any drug, any vaccine, any substance and as such, this also applies to our children. Thus far there has been no evidence or science in support of such a theoretical enterprise, only innuendos. Today Dr. Fauci cannot point to any science, evidence, or data that could support the provision of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children in 2022. None! 

Since children do travel (usually with their parents of course), and in light of the far-reaching implications of the advice given by the CDC in relation to travel we are compelled to address several concerns that have arisen in our opinion. In regard to the travel guidance that has emerged due to the introduction of the new experimental vaccines, we think that the CDC guidance, suggesting that fully vaccinated people avoid traveling is contrary to common sense, so much so that one can say the guidance is irrational and absurd on its face. Even the airline industry feels the blow from such unempirical and irrational guidance. The above article states, “The CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said Monday that the agency’s advice on travel remains the same for both vaccinated and unvaccinated Americans: Don’t do it.” What facts, we ask, did she use to support this contention? Where is the evidence? She reiterated further, “We are really trying to restrain travel at this current period of time, and we’re hopeful that our next set of guidance will have more science around what vaccinated people can do, perhaps travel being among them.” Given the precarious state of the travel industry at this time, further advice, particularly sound advice, must not be delayed anymore.

The CDC guidance suggesting that fully vaccinated people should still avoid traveling is contrary to common sense; so much so that it is impossible to understand the merit relating to this recommendation. If a person has had a Covid infection and has been fully vaccinated, then one is immune from future illness. Adaptive Immunity and immune memory are central (B cell antibodies, CD4+ T cells and CD8+ T cells) to clearing the viral pathogens from the human body. This adaptation is acquired through exposure/infection (far more robust and protective over a longer-term based on the immunological data thus far available). Vaccinations also induce similar responses but since only specific and targeted portions of the epitopes are used in the manufacturing of the vaccine, the viral escape mechanism and selection pressures on the virus may help in the mutation process. This is why we also suggest that those with naturally occurring immunity and who therefore won’t have ‘monospecific’ antibodies are probably more fully protected than those who have only received the vaccines that focus on the spike protein. In any event we must recognize and appreciate that vaccines also provide for the development of a functional immune response to SARS-CoV-2. Hence there is no reason why vaccinated persons or those who developed natural immunity due to prior SARS-CoV-2 infection should not be free to travel. 

CNN Medical Analyst, ER physician, Milken Institute School of Public Health at the George Washington University Visiting Professor and former Baltimore Health Commissioner Dr. Leana Wen opined that the guidance defies and challenges common sense and logic. We applaud her bravery in calling this out! Sadly, she will most certainly be slandered by the media and others for her temerity in making such comments. Oddly, even as little as 3 years ago such comments would have been considered as being mainstream. And even if the ideas were not mainstream, veering from the party line would not be considered heresy! Prior to more recent changes in our methods of discourse, respectful, if intense, argumentation might follow, but this is unfortunately no longer the case. In any case, her comments reflect previously accepted knowledge and practices in public health science. Along these lines, we argue that if the vaccine is as effective as it has been purported to be and especially in reducing likelihood of being a carrier, then fully vaccinated individuals “should be able to travel, should be encouraged to travel.” After all, what was the point in developing vaccines in the 1st place if not to return to normalcy?

Wen then explained what is so very illogical with the CDC’s vaccine-travel guidance is that the CDC on the one hand is indicating that if someone is knowingly exposed to another with Covid-19, and they are vaccinated fully, then they do not need to get a test or even quarantine. However, the CDC also recently stated that “If you’re sitting on a plane, you’re not necessarily sitting next to people with COVID-19, you’re wearing a mask, ideally; you’re keeping distanced. And so, it just doesn’t make sense that you can’t travel.” We agree fully with the contention by Wen and argue that people have been isolated for one year now and it is devastating. Isolation ravages people, especially our elderly who desperately want to see their families. We say that if someone is fully vaccinated, and they take reasonable safety precautions and especially so by strongly protecting our elderly, we should, and in fact must allow people to travel. As such, we reiterate that the guidance by the CDC makes very little common sense. Dr. Marty Makary also stated, para “To tell people who have been vaccinated that they cannot travel…to tell vaccinated people they can only be with vaccinated people…is a problem…the CDC was wrong on testing, they were wrong on masks, they were wrong on schools…this hurts our messaging…get out there, be active…guidance like this by the CDC hurts public health credibility…you don’t need to wait for 2 weeks after the 2nd dose, look, 4 weeks after the 1st dose, you have 94% protection based on NEJM article.” 

We also argue our core thesis that the flurry of travel and visitation vaccine-related guidance by the CDC has in effect subversively driven the concept of the need for mass vaccination accompanied by vaccine immunity passports. In fact, our suspicions comport with what was said previously by Dr Wen. Dr. Wen may have let the cat out of the bag in this statement: “And that’s one of those incentives that we can give as a way for restoring freedoms that you are now able to travel and go visit your loved ones and go to museums and cultural institutions once you’re fully vaccinated.” So, the government will give us back our freedom if we get vaccinated? Our Founders would be aghast! Dr. Makary also highlighted this mass vaccination agenda by the CDC when he weighed in on the CDC’s comment indicating that vaccinated people can get together with vaccinated people, in essence, telling us that once we all get vaccinated, life pretty much can get back to some semblance of normal. Apart from being wholly irrational, this is an infringement of our Freedoms and Liberties! Is the reticence by the CDC to come out and fully explain to the public that the reason why they are calling for masks and no travel etc. is because the vaccines have not been as effective and do not appear to give sterilizing immunity with effective neutralizing antibodies? In other words, is the public being asked to continue masking and locking down and not travelling (as if we were still living in March 2020) even if vaccinated because the vaccines are not optimally effective? Then why force the people to take the vaccines in the first place? Is this miscommunication, just ignorance of facts or both that drive the CDC to continue to make such dubious statements? 

Similarly, and in terms of the visitation with others once vaccinated, we find that the CDC guidance is confusing and specious. Dr. Makary said, “I think they’re overly restrictive…but to tell vaccinated people they can only be with other vaccinated people and let down their guard then, or only be with a low-risk individual from one household, people need to get out there.” Makary went on to state, ‘CDC COVID-19 guidelines were an abuse of power’…’ they have exercised that power because they could…the CDC guidelines were flawed and filled with dogma…if they were applied to the airline industry, every plane will be grounded.’ 

We agree fully with Dr. Makary and think that it is imperative to allow visitation once people are fully vaccinated with the safety steps of good hygiene and where applicable, a face mask (we shall not comment on the effectiveness or lack thereof) as well as following other steps such as maintaining social distancing, or meeting outdoors or in a room with good ventilation. These are reasonable suggestions. We believe strongly that visitations amongst family members and friends must happen now, once people have been either vaccinated or have developed and recovered from Covid-19. The elderly and the infirm and those most at risk should receive the vaccination first so that they are allowed to resume some normalcy of life and the freedom to see their loved ones to prevent further psychological harm to them. But even in this case, we do not really understand the longer-term or even shorter-term side-effects of vaccinations on the frail elderly and so we make this suggestion with caution. Yet, the very elderly we seek to protect have been decimated by the lockdowns and travel and visitation restrictions that have been imposed more or less arbitrarily. 

Reports suggest that the restrictions from visitations and normal routines have accelerated the aging process along with accelerated cognitive decline. There have also been several reports showing that since the implementation of (largely draconian) lockdown measures, there have been increases in other problems in elderly patients including increased incidence of falls due to declining strength and loss of ability to adequately ambulate. The aging process escalates dramatically. Dementia is escalating as the rhyme and rhythm of daily life is lost for our precious elderly and there is a sense of hopelessness and depression with the isolation from restricting loved ones, especially in nursing homes, long-term care facilities, assisted living facilities and similar congregated settings. Isolation forces people into despondency and prolonged loneliness is devastating and it kills! 

Do you think we overstate the probability that initiating the use of Covid vaccine immunity passports is not a possibility? Vaccine Immunity Passports harken back to the yesteryears of tumult and chaos of Wars that we feel are contrary to the open society we exist in. Some nations are marching ahead with these “passports” contrary to the natural rights of humanity in general, and Canada seems to be leading the pack in terms of how much oppression and punitive draconian steps it can implement on its population in response to Covid-19. Canada’s Health Minister Patty Hajdu (a graphic designer with no health experience) indicated officially that Canada is discussing the issue of a Covid-19 vaccine passport with other G7 countries, stating that “Canada is engaging in “very live” conversations on requiring proof of vaccination in order to travel internationally.” We are very concerned by this evolving situation and argue that this represents further confirmation that the CDC has tacitly and ‘silently’ signalled this in their recent vaccine-related travel and visitation guidance. We have many concerns about the unscientific, and unsound decisions and edicts being imposed on populations. Along these lines we point out that Ontario has become the first Canadian province to prioritize pregnancy in vaccination, despite our understanding that very limited data exist to support this recommendation (despite what you might hear from vaccine manufacturers)! The duration of follow up and the sample size and events needed to support the decision to vaccinate pregnant women are not available, or are at least so thin as to be completely unreliable. Thus we argue that this recommendation is not evidence-based and is certainly not reflective of the now infamous statement ‘We’re following the science!’ We are very concerned by this particular decision in Ontario and conclude that this could be very dangerous to pregnant women given the existing evidence of potential risks. We even have reports now of risks when pregnant women have been vaccinated with Covid vaccines. Regardless, the decision to vaccinate pregnant women without actual supportive data is a gargantuan departure from the requirements for RCT-based data in relation to the use of safe and effective medications to prevent hospitalization and death. Why are similar data not necessary in order to substantiate the recommendation to inoculate pregnant females?

Perhaps no exchange exemplifies the insanity and absurdity now prevalent when medical experts like Dr. Fauci speak. John Berman of CNN asked Dr. Fauci, “What’s the science behind not saying it’s safe for people who have been vaccinated – received two doses, to travel?” Dr. Fauci replied para “There is no science, you just have to trust his “judgement call…when you don’t have the data and you don’t have the actual evidence, you’ve got to make a judgment call.”

It seems that Dr. Fauci operates in a world of supposition and speculation and assumptions. Dr. Fauci should know better and that this is NOT science! Dr. Fauci wants us to trust his judgement? This is incomprehensible, particularly when the evidence shows that he has been flat wrong concerning everything from the lockdowns, masks, and school closures with regard to the pandemic. Time and again when we analyze his statements there is no data to back them up and they have led to catastrophic outcomes for the population (e.g. lockdown effects). 

People must understand that CDC guidance is just that, ‘guidance.’ Guidance is not law and police enforcement of guidance alerts cannot be undertaken by the state! And we must emphasize that this concept also applies to the recent travel restrictions and visitation guidelines (post-vaccination). Where are the guidelines insofar as naturally acquired immunity is concerned? Why are the guidelines not based on data? How is the CDC developing guidelines in the absence of scientific support for these guidelines? 

To close, the entire Covid-19 pandemic response in Western nations and perhaps the entire world, has led to disastrous outcomes. We argue that most have taken the lead from Western nations like the UK, US, and Canada. It has been a complete disaster and the irony is that we had strong reasonable pandemic plans in place prior to the advance of SARS-CoV-2 that for inexplicable reasons were shelved by the WHO, with no apparent or at least scientifically defensible rationale. As an example, we argue that after constant lockdown, by the time Australia emerges, they will likely discover as other nations did, that all they have done is delayed the inevitable, and while at it, destroying people’s lives, their economies, and eviscerating civil liberties and law. We also feel that ad hoc remarks made by ‘media’ medical experts and authorities promoting fear is reprehensible, and we suggest a more science-based approach, with rational and validated evidence, that educates the public and will yield more benefit to a healthier free, and compliant society. The currency of credit is lost with illogical and haphazard statements when borne without relevant facts. Our governmental agencies are bestowed with certain powers to safeguard the lives of individuals and not to harass and subjugate them to the whims of a few narrow field “experts” who have no idea about the well-being of the society as a whole. We are allowing government agencies and inept government bureaucrats and technocrats to destroy our lives and futures. Stopping Covid ‘at all costs’ will destroy us societally and globally!

*  *  *

Contributing Authors

  • Paul E Alexander MSc PhD, McMaster University and GUIDE Research Methods Group, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada elias98_99@yahoo.com

  • Howard C. Tenenbaum DDS, Dip. Perio., PhD, FRCD(C) Centre for Advanced Dental Research and Care, Mount Sinai Hospital, and Faculties of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada

  • Parvez Dara, MD, MBA

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/14/2021 - 12:31

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Mistakes Were Made

Mistakes Were Made

Authored by C.J.Hopkins via The Consent Factory,

Make fun of the Germans all you want, and I’ve certainly done that…

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20 hours ago

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March 17, 2024

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Mistakes Were Made

Authored by C.J.Hopkins via The Consent Factory,

Make fun of the Germans all you want, and I’ve certainly done that a bit during these past few years, but, if there’s one thing they’re exceptionally good at, it’s taking responsibility for their mistakes. Seriously, when it comes to acknowledging one’s mistakes, and not rationalizing, or minimizing, or attempting to deny them, and any discomfort they may have allegedly caused, no one does it quite like the Germans.

Take this Covid mess, for example. Just last week, the German authorities confessed that they made a few minor mistakes during their management of the “Covid pandemic.” According to Karl Lauterbach, the Minister of Health, “we were sometimes too strict with the children and probably started easing the restrictions a little too late.” Horst Seehofer, the former Interior Minister, admitted that he would no longer agree to some of the Covid restrictions today, for example, nationwide nighttime curfews. “One must be very careful with calls for compulsory vaccination,” he added. Helge Braun, Head of the Chancellery and Minister for Special Affairs under Merkel, agreed that there had been “misjudgments,” for example, “overestimating the effectiveness of the vaccines.”

This display of the German authorities’ unwavering commitment to transparency and honesty, and the principle of personal honor that guides the German authorities in all their affairs, and that is deeply ingrained in the German character, was published in a piece called “The Divisive Virus” in Der Spiegel, and immediately widely disseminated by the rest of the German state and corporate media in a totally organic manner which did not in any way resemble one enormous Goebbelsian keyboard instrument pumping out official propaganda in perfect synchronization, or anything creepy and fascistic like that.

Germany, after all, is “an extremely democratic state,” with freedom of speech and the press and all that, not some kind of totalitarian country where the masses are inundated with official propaganda and critics of the government are dragged into criminal court and prosecuted on trumped-up “hate crime” charges.

OK, sure, in a non-democratic totalitarian system, such public “admissions of mistakes” — and the synchronized dissemination thereof by the media — would just be a part of the process of whitewashing the authorities’ fascistic behavior during some particularly totalitarian phase of transforming society into whatever totalitarian dystopia they were trying to transform it into (for example, a three-year-long “state of emergency,” which they declared to keep the masses terrorized and cooperative while they stripped them of their democratic rights, i.e., the ones they hadn’t already stripped them of, and conditioned them to mindlessly follow orders, and robotically repeat nonsensical official slogans, and vent their impotent hatred and fear at the new “Untermenschen” or “counter-revolutionaries”), but that is obviously not the case here.

No, this is definitely not the German authorities staging a public “accountability” spectacle in order to memory-hole what happened during 2020-2023 and enshrine the official narrative in history. There’s going to be a formal “Inquiry Commission” — conducted by the same German authorities that managed the “crisis” — which will get to the bottom of all the regrettable but completely understandable “mistakes” that were made in the heat of the heroic battle against The Divisive Virus!

OK, calm down, all you “conspiracy theorists,” “Covid deniers,” and “anti-vaxxers.” This isn’t going to be like the Nuremberg Trials. No one is going to get taken out and hanged. It’s about identifying and acknowledging mistakes, and learning from them, so that the authorities can manage everything better during the next “pandemic,” or “climate emergency,” or “terrorist attack,” or “insurrection,” or whatever.

For example, the Inquiry Commission will want to look into how the government accidentally declared a Nationwide State of Pandemic Emergency and revised the Infection Protection Act, suspending the German constitution and granting the government the power to rule by decree, on account of a respiratory virus that clearly posed no threat to society at large, and then unleashed police goon squads on the thousands of people who gathered outside the Reichstag to protest the revocation of their constitutional rights.

Once they do, I’m sure they’ll find that that “mistake” bears absolutely no resemblance to the Enabling Act of 1933, which suspended the German constitution and granted the government the power to rule by decree, after the Nazis declared a nationwide “state of emergency.”

Another thing the Commission will probably want to look into is how the German authorities accidentally banned any further demonstrations against their arbitrary decrees, and ordered the police to brutalize anyone participating in such “illegal demonstrations.”

And, while the Commission is inquiring into the possibly slightly inappropriate behavior of their law enforcement officials, they might want to also take a look at the behavior of their unofficial goon squads, like Antifa, which they accidentally encouraged to attack the “anti-vaxxers,” the “Covid deniers,” and anyone brandishing a copy of the German constitution.

Come to think of it, the Inquiry Commission might also want to look into how the German authorities, and the overwhelming majority of the state and corporate media, accidentally systematically fomented mass hatred of anyone who dared to question the government’s arbitrary and nonsensical decrees or who refused to submit to “vaccination,” and publicly demonized us as “Corona deniers,” “conspiracy theorists,” “anti-vaxxers,” “far-right anti-Semites,” etc., to the point where mainstream German celebrities like Sarah Bosetti were literally describing us as the inessential “appendix” in the body of the nation, quoting an infamous Nazi almost verbatim.

And then there’s the whole “vaccination” business. The Commission will certainly want to inquire into that. They will probably want to start their inquiry with Karl Lauterbach, and determine exactly how he accidentally lied to the public, over and over, and over again …

And whipped people up into a mass hysteria over “KILLER VARIANTS” …

And “LONG COVID BRAIN ATTACKS” …

And how “THE UNVACCINATED ARE HOLDING THE WHOLE COUNTRY HOSTAGE, SO WE NEED TO FORCIBLY VACCINATE EVERYONE!”

And so on. I could go on with this all day, but it will be much easier to just refer you, and the Commission, to this documentary film by Aya Velázquez. Non-German readers may want to skip to the second half, unless they’re interested in the German “Corona Expert Council” …

Look, the point is, everybody makes “mistakes,” especially during a “state of emergency,” or a war, or some other type of global “crisis.” At least we can always count on the Germans to step up and take responsibility for theirs, and not claim that they didn’t know what was happening, or that they were “just following orders,” or that “the science changed.”

Plus, all this Covid stuff is ancient history, and, as Olaf, an editor at Der Spiegel, reminds us, it’s time to put the “The Divisive Pandemic” behind us …

… and click heels, and heil the New Normal Democracy!

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/16/2024 - 23:20

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“Extreme Events”: US Cancer Deaths Spiked In 2021 And 2022 In “Large Excess Over Trend”

"Extreme Events": US Cancer Deaths Spiked In 2021 And 2022 In "Large Excess Over Trend"

Cancer deaths in the United States spiked in 2021…

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March 16, 2024

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"Extreme Events": US Cancer Deaths Spiked In 2021 And 2022 In "Large Excess Over Trend"

Cancer deaths in the United States spiked in 2021 and 2022 among 15-44 year-olds "in large excess over trend," marking jumps of 5.6% and 7.9% respectively vs. a rise of 1.7% in 2020, according to a new preprint study from deep-dive research firm, Phinance Technologies.

Algeria, Carlos et. al "US -Death Trends for Neoplasms ICD codes: C00-D48, Ages 15-44", ResearchGate, March. 2024 P. 7

Extreme Events

The report, which relies on data from the CDC, paints a troubling picture.

"We show a rise in excess mortality from neoplasms reported as underlying cause of death, which started in 2020 (1.7%) and accelerated substantially in 2021 (5.6%) and 2022 (7.9%). The increase in excess mortality in both 2021 (Z-score of 11.8) and 2022 (Z-score of 16.5) are highly statistically significant (extreme events)," according to the authors.

That said, co-author, David Wiseman, PhD (who has 86 publications to his name), leaves the cause an open question - suggesting it could either be a "novel phenomenon," Covid-19, or the Covid-19 vaccine.

"The results indicate that from 2021 a novel phenomenon leading to increased neoplasm deaths appears to be present in individuals aged 15 to 44 in the US," reads the report.

The authors suggest that the cause may be the result of "an unexpected rise in the incidence of rapidly growing fatal cancers," and/or "a reduction in survival in existing cancer cases."

They also address the possibility that "access to utilization of cancer screening and treatment" may be a factor - the notion that pandemic-era lockdowns resulted in fewer visits to the doctor. Also noted is that "Cancers tend to be slowly-developing diseases with remarkably stable death rates and only small variations over time," which makes "any temporal association between a possible explanatory factor (such as COVID-19, the novel COVID-19 vaccines, or other factor(s)) difficult to establish."

That said, a ZeroHedge review of the CDC data reveals that it does not provide information on duration of illness prior to death - so while it's not mentioned in the preprint, it can't rule out so-called 'turbo cancers' - reportedly rapidly developing cancers, the existence of which has been largely anecdotal (and widely refuted by the usual suspects).

While the Phinance report is extremely careful not to draw conclusions, researcher "Ethical Skeptic" kicked the barn door open in a Thursday post on X - showing a strong correlation between "cancer incidence & mortality" coinciding with the rollout of the Covid mRNA vaccine.

Phinance principal Ed Dowd commented on the post, noting that "Cancer is suddenly an accelerating growth industry!"

Continued:

Bottom line - hard data is showing alarming trends, which the CDC and other agencies have a requirement to explore and answer truthfully - and people are asking #WhereIsTheCDC.

We aren't holding our breath.

Wiseman, meanwhile, points out that Pfizer and several other companies are making "significant investments in cancer drugs, post COVID."

Phinance

We've featured several of Phinance's self-funded deep dives into pandemic data that nobody else is doing. If you'd like to support them, click here.

 

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/16/2024 - 16:55

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Gen Z, The Most Pessimistic Generation In History, May Decide The Election

Gen Z, The Most Pessimistic Generation In History, May Decide The Election

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Young adults are more…

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1 day ago

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March 16, 2024

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Gen Z, The Most Pessimistic Generation In History, May Decide The Election

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Young adults are more skeptical of government and pessimistic about the future than any living generation before them.

This is with reason, and it’s likely to decide the election.

Rough Years and the Most Pessimism Ever

The Wall Street Journal has an interesting article on The Rough Years That Turned Gen Z Into America’s Most Disillusioned Voters.

Young adults in Generation Z—those born in 1997 or after—have emerged from the pandemic feeling more disillusioned than any living generation before them, according to long-running surveys and interviews with dozens of young people around the country. They worry they’ll never make enough money to attain the security previous generations have achieved, citing their delayed launch into adulthood, an impenetrable housing market and loads of student debt.

And they’re fed up with policymakers from both parties.

Washington is moving closer to passing legislation that would ban or force the sale of TikTok, a platform beloved by millions of young people in the U.S. Several young people interviewed by The Wall Street Journal said they spend hours each day on the app and use it as their main source of news.

“It’s funny how they quickly pass this bill about this TikTok situation. What about schools that are getting shot up? We’re not going to pass a bill about that?” Gaddie asked. “No, we’re going to worry about TikTok and that just shows you where their head is…. I feel like they don’t really care about what’s going on with humanity.”

Gen Z’s widespread gloominess is manifesting in unparalleled skepticism of Washington and a feeling of despair that leaders of either party can help. Young Americans’ entire political memories are subsumed by intense partisanship and warnings about the looming end of everything from U.S. democracy to the planet. When the darkest days of the pandemic started to end, inflation reached 40-year highs. The right to an abortion was overturned. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East raged.

Dissatisfaction is pushing some young voters to third-party candidates in this year’s presidential race and causing others to consider staying home on Election Day or leaving the top of the ticket blank. While young people typically vote at lower rates, a small number of Gen Z voters could make the difference in the election, which four years ago was decided by tens of thousands of votes in several swing states.

Roughly 41 million Gen Z Americans—ages 18 to 27—will be eligible to vote this year, according to Tufts University.

Gen Z is among the most liberal segments of the electorate, according to surveys, but recent polling shows them favoring Biden by only a slim margin. Some are unmoved by those who warn that a vote against Biden is effectively a vote for Trump, arguing that isn’t enough to earn their support.

Confidence

When asked if they had confidence in a range of public institutions, Gen Z’s faith in them was generally below that of the older cohorts at the same point in their lives. 

One-third of Gen Z Americans described themselves as conservative, according to NORC’s 2022 General Social Survey. That is a larger share identifying as conservative than when millennials, Gen X and baby boomers took the survey when they were the same age, though some of the differences were small and within the survey’s margin of error.

More young people now say they find it hard to have hope for the world than at any time since at least 1976, according to a University of Michigan survey that has tracked public sentiment among 12th-graders for nearly five decades. Young people today are less optimistic than any generation in decades that they’ll get a professional job or surpass the success of their parents, the long-running survey has found. They increasingly believe the system is stacked against them and support major changes to the way the country operates.

Gen Z future Outcome

“It’s the starkest difference I’ve documented in 20 years of doing this research,” said Twenge, the author of the book “Generations.” The pandemic, she said, amplified trends among Gen Z that have existed for years: chronic isolation, a lack of social interaction and a propensity to spend large amounts of time online.

A 2020 study found past epidemics have left a lasting impression on young people around the world, creating a lack of confidence in political institutions and their leaders. The study, which analyzed decades of Gallup World polling from dozens of countries, found the decline in trust among young people typically persists for two decades.

Young people are more likely than older voters to have a pessimistic view of the economy and disapprove of Biden’s handling of inflation, according to the recent Journal poll. Among people under 30, Biden leads Trump by 3 percentage points, 35% to 32%, with 14% undecided and the remaining shares going to third-party candidates, including 10% to independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Economic Reality

Gen Z may be the first generation in US history that is not better off than their parents.

Many have given up on the idea they will ever be able to afford a home.

The economy is allegedly booming (I disagree). Regardless, stress over debt is high with younger millennials and zoomers.

This has been a constant theme of mine for many months.

Credit Card and Auto Delinquencies Soar

Credit card debt surged to a record high in the fourth quarter. Even more troubling is a steep climb in 90 day or longer delinquencies.

Record High Credit Card Debt

Credit card debt rose to a new record high of $1.13 trillion, up $50 billion in the quarter. Even more troubling is the surge in serious delinquencies, defined as 90 days or more past due.

For nearly all age groups, serious delinquencies are the highest since 2011.

Auto Loan Delinquencies

Serious delinquencies on auto loans have jumped from under 3 percent in mid-2021 to to 5 percent at the end of 2023 for age group 18-29.Age group 30-39 is also troubling. Serious delinquencies for age groups 18-29 and 30-39 are at the highest levels since 2010.

For further discussion please see Credit Card and Auto Delinquencies Soar, Especially Age Group 18 to 39

Generational Homeownership Rates

Home ownership rates courtesy of Apartment List

The above chart is from the Apartment List’s 2023 Millennial Homeownership Report

Those struggling with rent are more likely to be Millennials and Zoomers than Generation X, Baby Boomers, or members of the Silent Generation.

The same age groups struggling with credit card and auto delinquencies.

On Average Everything is Great

Average it up, and things look pretty good. This is why we have seen countless stories attempting to explain why people should be happy.

Krugman Blames Partisanship

OK, there is a fair amount of partisanship in the polls.

However, Biden isn’t struggling from partisanship alone. If that was the reason, Biden would not be polling so miserably with Democrats in general, blacks, and younger voters.

OK, there is a fair amount of partisanship in the polls.

However, Biden isn’t struggling from partisanship alone. If that was the reason, Biden would not be polling so miserably with Democrats in general, blacks, and younger voters.

This allegedly booming economy left behind the renters and everyone under the age of 40 struggling to make ends meet.

Many Are Addicted to “Buy Now, Pay Later” Plans

Buy Now Pay Later, BNPL, plans are increasingly popular. It’s another sign of consumer credit stress.

For discussion, please see Many Are Addicted to “Buy Now, Pay Later” Plans, It’s a Big Trap

The study did not break things down by home owners vs renters, but I strongly suspect most of the BNPL use is by renters.

What About Jobs?

Another seemingly strong jobs headline falls apart on closer scrutiny. The massive divergence between jobs and employment continued into February.

Nonfarm payrolls and employment levels from the BLS, chart by Mish.

Payrolls vs Employment Gains Since March 2023

  • Nonfarm Payrolls: 2,602,000

  • Employment Level: +144,000

  • Full Time Employment: -284,000

For more details of the weakening labor markets, please see Jobs Up 275,000 Employment Down 184,000

CPI Hot Again

CPI Data from the BLS, chart by Mish.

For discussion of the CPI inflation data for February, please see CPI Hot Again, Rent Up at Least 0.4 Percent for 30 Straight Months

Also note the Producer Price Index (PPI) Much Hotter Than Expected in February

Major Economic Cracks

There are economic cracks in spending, cracks in employment, and cracks in delinquencies.

But there are no cracks in the CPI. It’s coming down much slower than expected. And the PPI appears to have bottomed.

Add it up: Inflation + Recession = Stagflation.

Election Impact

In 2020, younger voters turned out in the biggest wave in history. And they voted for Biden.

Younger voters are not as likely to vote in 2024, and they are less likely to vote for Biden.

Millions of voters will not vote for either Trump or Biden. Net, this will impact Biden more. The base will not decide the election, but the Trump base is far more energized than the Biden base.

If Biden signs a TikTok ban, that alone could tip the election.

If No Labels ever gets its act together, I suspect it will siphon more votes from Biden than Trump. But many will just sit it out.

“We’re just kind of over it,” Noemi Peña, 20, a Tucson, Ariz., resident who works in a juice bar, said of her generation’s attitude toward politics. “We don’t even want to hear about it anymore.” Peña said she might not vote because she thinks it won’t change anything and “there’s just gonna be more fighting.” Biden won Arizona in 2020 by just over 10,000 votes. 

The Journal noted nearly one-third of voters under 30 have an unfavorable view of both Biden and Trump, a higher number than all older voters. Sixty-three percent of young voters think neither party adequately represents them.

Young voters in 2020 were energized to vote against Trump. Now they have thrown in the towel.

And Biden telling everyone how great the economy is only rubs salt in the wound.

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/16/2024 - 11:40

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