Government
CDC Says Delta Wave Has Likely Peaked Across Northeast
CDC Says Delta Wave Has Likely Peaked Across Northeast
New England has one of the highest rates of vaccination in the US. Yet, in recent weeks, local businesses in Connecticut and Massachusetts have been asking customers to mask up once again

New England has one of the highest rates of vaccination in the US. Yet, in recent weeks, local businesses in Connecticut and Massachusetts have been asking customers to mask up once again - in restaurants, bars and gyms - as the number of breakthrough infections rises and Dr. Anthony Fauci turns the variant fearmongering up to 11.
Here are a few data visualizations showing how the northeast is perhaps the most heavily vaccinated region in the entire US.
While the mainstream media has mostly focused on reports about crowded ICUs and daily infection rates, the data show far is consistent with forecasts from Dr. Scott Gottlieb and others who expect the present delta-driven wave to peak in the US in early September.
Now, more data has arrived to suggest the delta variant has likely already peaked across the northeast, even as hospitalizations may continue to climb. in the near term. And before Fauci-worshippers question the souce, the projections, shared here by Bloomberg, were developed and released by the CDC.
Parts of the U.S. Northeast may be near the peak of the latest Covid-19 wave, though there are still key areas of concern. Hospitalizations and deaths are likely to mount in the weeks to come.
Cases in Connecticut and Massachusetts have probably topped out, according to the consensus of forecasts published by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Yet New York and New Jersey still are expected to see infection rates increase.
Since around mid-July, the Northeast has been feeling the effects of the U.S. Covid-19 wave that started in Arkansas and Missouri and fueled record hospitalizations in Florida. Daily hospital admissions are now on the rise in every state in the Northeast, according to Department of Health and Human Services data.
"There are continued increases, but not to the level that we’ve seen in previous surges here in the Northeast," Dr. Roy Gulick, chief of infectious diseases at Weill Cornell Medicine and New York-Presbyterian hospital, said by telephone. "I’m seeing some modeling to suggest that peak won’t occur until late September, early October -- but of course we don’t know for sure."
Even in NYC, the city now requiring IDs and proof of vaccination for patrons to visit restaurants and gyms (yet New Yorkers still don't need an ID to vote), the worst of delta is probably already in the rearview mirror, and the prevailing "r" rate - the rate of spread represented by the number of people infected, on average, by a single case - suggests the city and all of New York State likely won't ever see levels of prevalence anywhere near states like Florida.
The rates of infection are still far below those seen in early Delta-variant hot spots, and leading indicators suggest the region is likely to crest without getting anywhere near Florida-like levels of viral prevalence. Nationwide cases are still projected to rise for several weeks.
In New York City, the original epicenter of the U.S. pandemic, the effective reproduction number, or Rt -- an estimate of how many new infections come from a single Covid carrier -- suggests sustainable declines in case numbers may be on the horizon. Manhattan’s Rt is estimated to have fallen to 1.0, and when it falls below that level cases are expected to decrease in the near future. Rt is somewhat higher in the Bronx, Queens and Brooklyn, according to covidestim, a project with contributors from Yale School of Public Health, Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health and Stanford Medicine.
One scientist said that opening schools without vaccinating kids could exacerbate spread (despite multiple studies showing schools aren't locuses of COVID spread), though he acknowledged that he couldn't predict the course of the virus.
"Multiple factors challenge our ability to predict what’s going to happen next," said Gulick, including the range of vaccination rates, masking habits and breakthrough cases. "Certainly opening school without having vaccinations available for kids under 12 also potentially will influence the course," he said.
So, if the virus is waning, then what's the argument for forcing Americans, even the young and healthy, to get a third dose of the vaccine?
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Government
Forget Ron DeSantis: Walt Disney has a much bigger problem
The company’s political woes are a sideshow to the one key issue Bob Iger has to solve.

Walt Disney has a massive, but solvable, problem.
The company's current skirmishes with Florida Gov. DeSantis get a lot of headlines, but they're not having a major impact on the company's bottom line.
Related: What the Bud Light boycott means for Disney, Target, and Starbucks
DeSantis has made Walt Disney (DIS) - Get Free Report a target in what he calls his war on woke, an effort to win right-wing support as he tries to secure the Republican Party nomination for president.
That effort has generated plenty of press and multiple lawsuits tied to the governor's takeover of the former Reedy Creek Improvement District, Disney's legislated self-governance operation. But it has not hurt revenue at the company's massive Florida theme-park complex.
Disney Chief Executive Bob Iger addressed the matter during the company's third-quarter-earnings call, without directly mentioning DeSantis.
"Walt Disney World is still performing well above precovid levels: 21% higher in revenue and 29% higher in operating income compared to fiscal 2019," he said.
And "following a number of recent changes we've implemented, we continue to see positive guest-experience ratings in our theme parks, including Walt Disney World, and positive indicators for guests looking to book future visits."
The theme parks are not Disney's problem. The death of the movie business is, however, a hurdle that Iger has yet to show that the company has a plan to clear.
Image source: Walt Disney
Disney needs a plan to monetize content
In 2019 Walt Disney drew in more $11 billion in global box office, or $13 billion when you add in the former Fox properties it also owns. In that year seven Mouse House films crossed the billion-dollar threshold in theaters, according to data from Box Office Mojo.
This year, the company will struggle to reach half that and it has no billion-dollar films, with "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" closing its theatrical run at $845 million globally.
(That's actually good for third place this year, as only "Barbie" and "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" have broken the billion-dollar mark and they may be the only two films to do that this year.)
In the precovid world Disney could release two Pixar movies, three Marvel films, a live-action remake of an animated classic, and maybe one other film that each would be nearly guaranteed to earn $1 billion at the box office.
That's simply not how the movie business works anymore. While theaters may remain part of Disney's plan to monetize its content, the past isn't coming back. Theaters may remain a piece of the movie-release puzzle, but 2023 isn't an anomaly or a bad release schedule.
Consumers have big TVs at home and they're more than happy to watch most films on them.
Disney owns the IP but charges too little
People aren't less interested in Marvel and Star Wars; they're just getting their fix from Disney+ at an absurdly low price.
Over the past couple of months through the next few weeks, I will have watched about seven hours of premium Star Wars content and five hours of top-tier Marvel content with "Ahsoka" and "Loki" respectively.
Before the covid pandemic, I gladly would have paid theater prices for each movie in those respective universes. Now, I have consumed about six movies worth of premium content for less than the price of two movie tickets.
By making its premium content television shows available on a service that people can buy for $7.99 a month Disney has devalued its most valuable asset, its intellectual property.
Consumers have shown that they will pay the $10 to $15 cost of a movie ticket to see what happens next in the Marvel Cinematic Universe or the Star Wars galaxy. But the company has offered top-tier content from those franchises at a lower price.
Iger needs to find a way to replace billions of dollars in lost box office, but charging less for the company's content makes no sense.
Now, some fans likely won't pay triple the price for Disney+. But if it were to bundle a direct-to-consumer ESPN along with content that currently gets released to movie theaters, Disney might create a package that it can price in a way that reflects the value of its IP.
Consumers want Disney's content and they will likely pay more for it. Iger simply has to find a way to make that happen.
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