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Bitcoin will ‘teleport’ to $14K or worse if BTC breaks $16K — Analyst

Bitcoin faces pressure from China, a stock market trend in addition to the FTX fallout.
Bitcoin (BTC) hovered above $16,000 on the…

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Bitcoin faces pressure from China, a stock market trend in addition to the FTX fallout.

Bitcoin (BTC) hovered above $16,000 on the Nov. 28 Wall Street open as analysts diverged on what to expect from the next market move.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin spot price near key support

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD maintaining the $16,000 support level at the time of writing amid misgivings over China’s impact on risk assets.

After a modestly higher weekly close, the pair still lacked volatility as one commentator warned of a “teleport” toward $12,000 should $16,000 break.

“When it breaks below 16k, it teleports to 12k-14k,” Il Capo of Crypto insisted.

Popular Twitter account Credible Crypto asked where the volatility had gone, while Crypto Tony likewise identified $16,000 as a line in the sand for his own trading strategy.

“Finally some movement .. Stop loss firmly remains at $16,000, but will close if hit and look for shorts if we then proceed to close below the support zone and flip into resistance,” part of a tweet read on the day.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Crypto Tony/Twitter

Fellow trader Pentoshi meanwhile focused on macro triggers as Chinese protests over the country’s COVID-19 containment strategies weighed on sentiment.

The S&P 500, he predicted, was due a rejection next, setting the tone for a long-term downtrend to continue.

S&P 500 1-week candle chart. Source: TradingView

$19,500 could become the new BTC price ceiling

Others drew attention to the upcoming monthly close amid a lack of catalysts elsewhere at the start of the week.

Related: New BTC miner capitulation? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Beyond a source of potential volatility, trader and analyst Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin’s monthly closing price would determine its longer-term price range.

“When BTC lost the ~$19500 level as support... It broke down into the ~$13900-$19500 Monthly Range,” he explained on the day.

“Monthly Candle Close is coming up soon. A Monthly Close below ~$19500 would likely confirm the ~$13900-$19500 Range as its new playground.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/Twitter

BTC/USD was down around 21% for the month of November at the time of writing, marking its worst November performance since its last bear market year in 2018.

BTC/USD monthly returns chart (screenshot). Source: Coinglass

Cointelegraph previously outlined potential bottom targets for the pair, among them those based on performance during previous bear markets.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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The metaverse is real: Zuck’s ‘incredible’ photorealistic tech wows crypto twitter

Often roasted for his metaverse tech demos, Zuckerberg appears to have blown away internet users with his latest avatar tech.
While…

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Often roasted for his metaverse tech demos, Zuckerberg appears to have blown away internet users with his latest avatar tech.

While critics have been busy writing eulogies for Meta’s metaverse dream over the last few years, Mark Zuckerberg’s latest demonstration of its photorealistic avatars shows it could be pretty far from dead after all.

Appearing on a Sept. 28 episode of the Lex Fridman podcast, Zuckerberg and the popular computer scientist engaged in a one-hour face-to-face conversation. Only, it wasn’t actually in person at all.

Instead, the entirety of Fridman and Zuckerberg’s conversation used photorealistic realistic avatars in the metaverse, facilitated through Meta’s Quest 3 headsets and noise-canceling headphones.

Observers often have fun ridiculing Meta for dumping billions of dollars into metaverse research only to seemingly produce cartoonish avatars and wonky-looking legs.

However, in this case, users on social media, including those from Crypto Twitter, seemed to be genuinely impressed by the sophistication of the technology.

“Ok the metaverse is officially real,” wrote pseudonymous account Gaut, a rare moment of seemingly genuine praise from a user typically known for his satirical and sarcastic takes on current events.

“9 minutes into Lex / Mark metaverse podcast I forgot I was watching avatars,” wrote coder Jelle Prins.

Fridman and Zuckerberg speaking as virtual avatars in the metaverse. Source: Lex Fridman Podcast.

Fridman alsoshared his impressions of the experience in real-time, noting how “close” Zuckerberg felt to him during the interview. Moments later, he explained how difficult it was to recognize that Zuckerberg’s avatar wasn’t his physical body.

“I’m already forgetting that you’re not real.”

The technology on display is the newest version of Codec Avatars. First revealed in 2019, Codec Avatars is one of Meta’s longest-running research projects which aims to create fully photorealistic real-time avatars that work by way of headsets with face tracking sensors.

Related: Meta refutes claims of copyright infringement in AI training

However, users may need to wait a few years before donning their own realistic avatars, said Zuckerberg, explaining that the tech used requires expensive machine learning software and full head scans by specialized equipment featuring more than 100 different cameras.

This would be, at the very least, three years away from being available to everyday consumers, he said.

Still, Zuckerberg noted that the company wants to reduce the barriers as much as possible, explaining that in the future, these scans may be achievable with a regular smartphone.

The most-recent demonstration comes just one day after Meta unveiled its answer to ChatGPT, revealing its newest AI assistant Meta AI, which is integrated across a range of unique chatbots, apps and even smart glasses.

AI Eye: Real uses for AI in crypto, Google’s GPT-4 rival, AI edge for bad employees

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New Tables Show Intermediate-Term Overview is Negative

We have introduced two new tables in the DecisionPoint ALERT to give an overview of trend and BIAS for the major market indexes, sectors, and industry…

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We have introduced two new tables in the DecisionPoint ALERT to give an overview of trend and BIAS for the major market indexes, sectors, and industry groups that we track. The first is our Market Scoreboard, which shows the current Intermediate-Term and Long-Term Trend Model (ITTM and LTTM) signal status. To review:

  • The IT Trend Model generates a BUY Signal when the 20-day EMA crosses up through the 50-day EMA (Silver Cross).
  • The IT Trend Model generates a NEUTRAL Signal when the 20-day EMA crosses down through the 50-day EMA (Dark Cross) above the 200-day EMA. This is a soft SELL Signal, going to cash or a hedge. It avoids being short in a bull market.
  • The IT Trend Model generates a SELL Signal when the 20-day EMA crosses down through the 50-day EMA (Dark Cross) below the 200-day EMA.
  • The LT Trend Model generates a BUY Signal when the 50-day EMA crosses up through the 200-day EMA (Golden Cross).
  • The LT Trend Model generates a SELL Signal when the 50-day EMA crosses down through the 200-day EMA (Death Cross).

The current table shows that there is considerable stress in the intermediate-term; however, the long-term is still comfortably green for market and sector indexes. But we need to remember that the market indexes are cap-weighted, which means that they can be held aloft by large-cap stocks. The 11 sectors shown are composed solely of S&P 500 components, meaning that they will reflect the strength of that index. Industry groups, however, are not doing as well because they are less protected by the large-cap umbrella.

Next, let's look at how we determine the BIAS of a given index. First, the Silver Cross Index shows the percentage of stocks in an index that have a Silver Cross (20-day EMA above the 50-day EMA), and the Golden Cross Index shows the percentage of stocks in the index that have a Golden Cross (50-day EMA above the 200-day EMA). Next, we determine BIAS based upon the relationship of the Silver Cross Index to its 10-day EMA and the relationship of the Golden Cross Index to its 20-day EMA. When they are above, the BIAS is bullish. When they are below, the BIAS is bearish. See the chart below.

The following table shows the current intermediate-term and long-term BIAS of the market, sector, and industry group indexes we follow. Note that the picture is extremely bearish, but it is a very oversold condition, which will shift toward the positive in the event of a strong rally.

Conclusion: These new tables, available daily in the DecisionPoint ALERT, provide a quick overview of market trend and BIAS. They are intended to help focus attention on areas that may be of interest. They do not give action commands, but provide information flags to prompt assessment of the relevant charts.


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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. --Carl Swenlin

(c) Copyright 2023 DecisionPoint.com


Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.


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China dev fined 3 yr’s salary for VPN use, 10M e-CNY airdrop: Asia Express

Crypto industry concerns after Chinese dev fined 3 year’s salary for using a VPN, largest Ponzi in Hong Kong history, JPEX saga, and more.

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Crypto industry concerns after Chinese dev fined 3 year’s salary for using a VPN, largest Ponzi in Hong Kong history, JPEX saga, and more.

Our weekly roundup of news from East Asia curates the industrys most important developments.

Chinese worker fined $145K over VPN

An unnamed individual in China was fined 1.06 million Yuan ($144,907) for using a virtual private network (VPN) to access restricted websites as part of a remote work routine for a foreign employer. 

According to local mediareportsearlier this week, during his employment as a consultant between 2019 to 2022 the unnamed individual accessed GitHub to view source code, answered questions in customer support, held teleconferences via Zoom, and posted multiple threads on Twitter with the help of a VPN.

China Digital Times
Images from the China Digital Times story.

Based on a document issued by City of Chengde Police, the individual’s income earned with the aid of a VPN was deemed as “proceeds of crime.” The police issued a penalty of $144,097, equivalent to three years of the individual’s salary.

Chinese law prohibits the use of VPNs to bypass the country’s “Great Firewall” that blocks popular sites such as Google, Wikipedia, and Facebook. The ruling has spooked many in China’s IT and Web3 circles, who often rely on VPNs for similar remote-work tasks.

City of Hangzhou airdrops 10M e-CNY 

The City of Hangzhou is airdropping 10 million digital yuan central bank digital currency (e-CNY), worth a total of $1.37 million, to incentivize food and beverage spending as it hosts the 19th Asian Games. 

Anyone within the municipality of Hangzhou, locals and visitors alike, can receive the e-CNY airdrop for use in food delivery platforms. Individuals can receive up to three vouchers that reimburse merchants, in e-CNY, up to 20% to 30% of the value of food items after purchase.

The airdrop will renew every five days until the balance is emptied. The vouchers, although denominated in e-CNY, are only effective for five days and can only be tendered through select food delivery platforms. Earlier this year, the City of Hangzhou airdropped 4 million e-CNY, worth $590,000, in an effort to boost the CBDC’s adoption.

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15 detained over largest alleged Ponzi scheme in Hong Kong’s history

Hong Kong police have detained 15 individuals linked to the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange JPEX. 

As of September 27, Hong Kong Policeclaimthey have received over 2,392 complaints claiming a total loss of 1.5 billion Hong Kong dollars ($191.6 million) in the apparent Ponzi scheme. Since the investigation began mid-September, police say that they have seized 8 million HKD ($1 million) in cash and frozen bank accounts worth 77 million HKD ($10 million) suspected of being proceeds of crime.

On September 13, the Hong Kong Securities & Futures Commission (SFC) issued a warning regarding JPEX being an unlicensed exchange within its jurisdiction. The move led to several arrests of its key executives and the abandonment of its corporate booth in Token2049 Singapore. Prior to its collapse, JPEX was one of the most heavily marketed crypto exchanges in Hong Kong, with corporate ads displayed across the city’s metro lines and taxis.

The incident is shaping up as potentially the worst Ponzi scheme in Hong Kong’s history in terms of monetary loss. Shortly after its discovery, the SFC began publishing a list of crypto exchanges awaiting registration or are unlicensed within the special administrative region of China.

CoinEx resilient despite $70M hack

CoinEx
CoinEx logo.

Hong Kong crypto exchange CoinEx will resume services despite falling victim to a $70 million wallet hack orchestrated by North Korea’s infamous Lazarus Group. 

According to a September 22 statement, CoinEx claims to have resumed deposits and withdrawals on 190 cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, USD Coin, and Tether. The firm stated: 

“The wallet system is operating safely and steadily at present. We will gradually resume deposit and withdrawal services for the remaining 500+ cryptos. Since the resuming operations will be processed frequently, there will be no further or separate announcements for each crypto.”

As part of its new wallet system, CoinEx updated the deposit addresses of all crypto assets, rendering old addresses invalid. On September 12, a leak of the exchange’s hot wallet keys led to the theft of over $70 million worth of users’ cryptos. Despite the incident, CoinEx said that cold wallets were not affected and that the CoinEx User Asset Security Foundation would “bear the financial losses from this incident.”

Multiple blockchain security firms, such as Elliptic, have pointed to North Korea’s Lazarus Group as the perpetrator of the exploit. The CoinEx team has since offered a “generous bounty” for the return of stolen funds. Prior to the hack, the exchange disclosed it had around $260 million worth of major cryptocurrencies in its proof-of-reserves report. 

Alibaba moves into digital wallets

Chinese tech conglomerate Alibaba wants to launch its own wallet service. 

According to the September 28 announcement, Alibaba’s Cloud subsidiary has partnered with crypto custodian Cobo to create an enterprise wallet-as-a-service solution for developers and organizations, integrating crypto wallets into software through APIs and SDKs. Cobo says it is incorporating its custodial wallet and multi-party computation technology to build the Alibaba Cloud wallet. 

“This collaboration marks a significant step towards setting new standards in security, performance, and accessibility of the digital wallet infrastructure for Web3,” said Dr. Changhao Jiang, co-founder and CTO of Cobo. The firm claims to hold partnerships with over 500 institutions, with billions of digital assets in custody through its wallet solutions. In June, crypto-friendly executive Joe Tsaibecame the chairmanof Alibaba Group, replacing his predecessor Daniel Zhang.

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