Connect with us

Uncategorized

Bitcoin short-term holders ‘panic’ amid nearly 100% unrealized loss

Bitcoin speculators are dealing with “a degree of panic” as their BTC holdings sit in unrealized loss, says Glassnode.
Bitcoin…

Published

on

Bitcoin speculators are dealing with “a degree of panic” as their BTC holdings sit in unrealized loss, says Glassnode.

Bitcoin (BTC) speculators are in “panic” mode, as nearly all of them are in the red, research says.

In the latest edition of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” analytics firm Glassnode revealed 97.5% unrealized losses among Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STHs).

Research warns of “non-trivial” Bitcoin sentiment slide

BTC price action in recent months has tested the resolve of investors, but none more so than those who bought BTC over the past three months.

STHs, which correspond to entities hodling coins for 155 days or less, have seen their aggregate cost basis fail as market support.

As Glassnode notes, as of Sept. 17, the cost basis for those not spending BTC is now $28,000 — around 5% above the current spot price.

As part of its research, the firm separated the STH cohort into holders and spenders, discovering “a relationship between abrupt changes in implied (unrealized) profitability and the shift in spending by STHs (realized profitability).”

The result, it says, is what it calls a “non-trivial change in sentiment.”

“From this perspective, we can see that the cost basis of STHs who are spending fell below the cost basis of holders as the market sold off from $29k to $26k in mid-August,” The Week On-Chain explained.

“This suggests a degree of panic and negative sentiment has taken hold in the near term.”
Bitcoin STH holder and spender data annotated chart (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

“A degree of panic”

The findings chime with the overall sense of caution among Bitcoin traders and analysts, with many predicting a test of lower levels still to come.

Related: What volatility? Bitcoin price dismisses FOMC, Mt. Gox with $26.7K dip

Opinion is far from unanimous, however, as optimists eye a change of fortunes for BTC’s price performance beginning in Q4.

As Cointelegraph reported earlier this week, meanwhile, the classic sentiment gauge the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains only modestly bearish at current price levels.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

Nonetheless, for STHs, the threat of permanent loss appears to feel all too real.

Glassnode analysts unveiled a trend confidence metric, which subtracts the spender cost basis from the holder cost basis and divides by BTC’s price.

“The Bitcoin market is experiencing a non-trivial shift in sentiment, with almost all Short-Term Holders now underwater on their supply,” the firm wrote in part of its conclusion.

“This has resulted in a negative shift in sentiment, with investors spending now having a lower cost basis than the rest of the cohort. This suggests a degree of panic is dominating this group, which is the first time since FTX collapsed.”
Bitcoin new investor confidence annotated chart (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

Collect this article as an NFT to preserve this moment in history and show your support for independent journalism in the crypto space.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Read More

Continue Reading

Uncategorized

Physicists create new form of antenna for radio waves

University of Otago physicists have used a small glass bulb containing an atomic vapor to demonstrate a new form of antenna for radio waves. The bulb was…

Published

on

University of Otago physicists have used a small glass bulb containing an atomic vapor to demonstrate a new form of antenna for radio waves. The bulb was “wired up” with laser beams and could therefore be placed far from any receiver electronics.

Credit: University of Otago

University of Otago physicists have used a small glass bulb containing an atomic vapor to demonstrate a new form of antenna for radio waves. The bulb was “wired up” with laser beams and could therefore be placed far from any receiver electronics.

 

Dr Susi Otto, from the Dodd-Walls Centre for Photonic and Quantum Technologies, led the field testing of the portable atomic radio frequency sensor.

 

Such sensors, that are enabled by atoms in a so-called Rydberg state, can provide superior performance over current antenna technologies as they are highly sensitive, have broad tunability, and small physical size, making them attractive for use in defence and communications.

 

For example, they could simplify communications for soldiers on the battlefield as they cover the full spectrum of radio frequencies, rather than needing multiple antennas to cover different frequency bands, and are super sensitive and accurate to detect a wide range of critical signals. The ability to eliminate the need for multiple sensors also makes them useful in satellite technology.

 

Importantly, compared to more traditional sensors, Rydberg sensors can function without any metal parts, which can scatter the radio frequency field of interest and the atomic sensor is accessed via laser light, replacing the need for electric cables.

The Otago group’s new design is portable and can be taken outside the laboratory. In a first out-of-lab demonstration, the sensor was able to efficiently measure fields in a distance of 30m using a free-space laser link. This adds important flexibility to Rydberg-atom based sensing technologies.

 

They envision these developments will make quantum sensors more robust and cost-effective, enabling them to move out of labs and into the real world.

 

A paper on the creation was recently published in Applied Physics Letters.

 


Read More

Continue Reading

Uncategorized

Ethereum layer 2 zkEVM ‘Scroll’ confirms mainnet launch

Blockchain data from Etherscan suggest Scroll’s mainnet was live over a week ago.
Scroll, a new contender in the zero-knowledge Ethereum…

Published

on

Blockchain data from Etherscan suggest Scroll’s mainnet was live over a week ago.

Scroll, a new contender in the zero-knowledge Ethereum Virtual Machine (zkEVM) space that works to scale the blockchain, has confirmed the launch of its mainnet.

The team behind Scroll announced the launch in an Oct. 17 post and added that existing applications and developer tool kits on Ethereum can now migrate to the new scaling solution.

“Everything functions right out of the box,” the Scroll team said.

A zkEVM solution such as Scroll’s aims to provide lower transaction costs at a higher throughput for decentralized applications running on Ethereum.

It works by batching thousands of transactions off-chain into one, then submitting a proof consisting of a minimal data summary to Ethereum’s mainnet.

Blockchain data suggests Scroll had withheld the news that its mainnet was live since Oct. 8 — the date at which the first smart contract was deployed on thScroll mainnet, according to Etherscan data.

Scroll said the mainnet launch came after 15 months of extensive testing and security audits across three separate testnets.

“Our bridge and rollup contracts were audited by OpenZeppelin and Zellic,” Scroll added. Its zkEVM circuits were reviewed by Trail of Bits, Zellic, and KALOS.

Across its three testnets over 450,000 smart contracts were deployed enabling over 90 million transactions across 9 million blocks. 280,000 ZK-proofs were also generated the firm said.

About a month ago, Scroll co-founder Ye Zhang told Cointelegraph Scroll would launch with centralized features but plans to increasingly decentralize over time.

“We will have a centralized sequencer and the central approver button,” Zhang said. He added a plan is in place to remove that button, however.

“We have a roadmap [...] To solve the single point of failure and to incentivize the community to build better proving hardware.”

Zhang said the Scroll team will also pitch several proposals to let the community discuss what’s best for Scroll moving forward.

Related: ConsenSys launches Linea zkEVM to further scale Ethereum

Scroll was founded in 2021 with the goal to be more community-driven. Other zkEVM solutions working to scale Ethereum include Polygon, zkSync, StarkWare and Immutable.

Jordi Baylina, technical lead of Polygon Hermez zkEVM, recently told Cointelegraph that such competition in the zkEVM space is only going to make the Ethereum ecosystem more robust:

“Having different projects adds a lot of experience, and it’s also a way to test different approaches, ways of handling things or solving things,” he said.

Magazine: Attack of the zkEVMs! Crypto’s 10x moment

Read More

Continue Reading

Uncategorized

Inflation: Known Unknowns

In my MJS article on inflation, I wrote: Looking forward, the inflation surge is probably over. The upward pressure in rental rates is dissipating, while…

Published

on

In my MJS article on inflation, I wrote:

Looking forward, the inflation surge is probably over. The upward pressure in rental rates is dissipating, while supply chain problems have already disappeared. Finally, because the Fed has been raising interest rates over the last year and a half, thereby slowing the economy’s growth, the labor market has cooled substantially, further relaxing upward price pressures.

That means that in the absence of any big surprises – like another large disruption to oil markets – inflation is likely to continue to moderate, although perhaps more slowly than most people would like. On the other hand, if the Fed has already overly tightened – as the effects of past interest rate increases continue to ripple through the economy – inflation may fall even faster, although perhaps at the cost of a recession.

What’s one potential big surprise? Here’s a graphic:

Figure 1: Map as of October 16, 2023. Source: USNI.

Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group (CSG) to Med; Vinson CSG deploying to “Indo-Pacific”. Bataan Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) to Eastern Med.

Here’s another:

Figure 2: GeoPolitical Risk daily index (blue), and centered 7 day moving average (red). Source: Caldara-Iacoviello, and author’s calculations.

The GeoPolitical Risk index is elevated, and likely to remain so. Expansion of the war to cause a tightening of oil supplies would certainly exacerbate inflationary pressures.

Read More

Continue Reading

Trending