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Bitcoin Price Continues Rally, Positive Sentiment Is Off the Charts

Bitcoin Price Continues Rally, Positive Sentiment Is Off the Charts

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Since late July, positive tweets about Bitcoin have increased substantially, signifying growing interest in its price.

In the past couple of weeks, the Bitcoin (BTC) price has resurged after months of apparent monetary stagnation. Since July 23, the value of a single Bitcoin has risen by around 20%. Not only that, after trading sideways since its supply squeeze in early May, the premier currency broke through its all-important $10,000 psychological threshold, thus leading many casual investors to once again jump back on the crypto hype train.

Bitcoin’s recent price hike has also resulted in a retail boom, with a whole host of trading platforms across the world reporting sky-high Bitcoin trading volumes. As a result of this bullish market activity, Joe DiPasquale, prominent crypto pundit and CEO of BitBull Capital, recently stated that this latest surge is once again building up an element of FOMO, or fear of missing out, among casual investors who believe they might be late to the crypto party.

Echoing a somewhat similar sentiment, Joshua Frank, co-founder and CEO of The Tie — a provider of data aggregation tools — commented to Cointelegraph that historically speaking, volatility has driven significant new waves of interest and investors into Bitcoin, particularly with the most recent run from $9,000 to $12,000. Frank outlined that the 30-day average number of Twitter users discussing Bitcoin has spiked from 24,000 to 30,000 over the last two weeks, adding:

“Bitcoin hit its highest daily tweet volume level since June 26th 2019 in the wake of the Twitter scam on July 16th. While it isn’t clear that the run-up had any correlation to the scam, we have seen in the past that, all else equal, the more users talking about Bitcoin the better the asset performs.”

Price vs. tweet volume

Denis Vinokourov, head of research at BeQuant, a crypto exchange and institutional brokerage service, told Cointelegraph that since volatility picked up, his firm has observed trade volumes jumping by about 40% from where daily summer averages were prior to this recent rally.

Top cryptocurrencies are mobilizing fast

Cointelegraph also discussed the recent market action with Adam Vettese, market analyst at cryptocurrency trading and investment platform eToro. He pointed out that since crypto prices began rallying at the end of July, the number of crypto positions being opened increased by 115% versus the previous fortnight. Over the same time period, trading volume in crypto instruments also increased by 162%. The number of Bitcoin positions opened increased by 222% with a 421% rise for Ether (ETH) and 170% for XRP.

Most invested crypto assets on eToro

Christophe Michot, sales director at digital asset trading platform CrossTower also claimed that over the course of the past couple of weeks, his firm has observed a 219% increase in daily trading volume as well as a 66% rise in the number of daily average signups over the same time period.

Michot also highlighted that since the pullback in mid-March, the market as a whole has experienced a strong bullish reversal. For example, Bitcoin has regained over 210% and Ethereum bounced by 364% since the “Black Thursday” crash of March 11, 2020. 

The crypto market rally has come on the heels of positive news such as the U.S. OCC’s recent clarification permitting the custody of Bitcoin by banks as well as the announcement of another stimulus package to be issued by the Fed in the near future, which some experts believe will continue to devalue the U.S. dollar.

People’s sentiment regarding crypto is soaring

On July 12, Bitcoin’s long-term sentiment score — a comparison of investor sentiment over the last 50 days vs. the prior 200 — hit a new all-time high leading up to Bitcoin’s run at the end of the month. Similarly, the daily sentiment score represents a measure of how positive or negative conversations on Twitter have been about a particular coin over the last 24 hours vs. the previous 20 days. 

Bitcoin price vs. long-term sentiment score

The daily sentiment score of investors has remained positive (above 50) every day from July 20 to Aug. 1. Even after Bitcoin failed to surpass the $12,000 mark and retraced by $1,400, investor sentiment fell below 50 for only about 28 hours, alluding to the fact that investors have remained extremely positive on Bitcoin.

Frank told Cointelegraph that approximately 68% of all tweets discussing the long-term financial future of Bitcoin over the past month have been positive. Similarly, Michot added that according to CrossTower’s media data, the market is in the early stages of a new bull run, adding: “Another positive sentiment is coming from family offices and other traditional advisory firms. These firms are seeing increased demands by clients seeking exposure to the cryptocurrency markets.”

Other crypto-related offerings are also flying high

Since the start of the recent crypto surge, there has been a spike in the use of stablecoins along with a clear increase in demand for other DeFi-related tokens. John Todaro, director of institutional research at TradeBlock, a trading platform for institutional investors, told Cointelegraph:

“Stablecoin circulating supplies have increased substantially over the past 6 months, with Tether seeing around $10bn in deposits and USDC seeing over $1bn. This may seem small, but those deposits make Circle and Tether, to an extent, defacto banks with sizable customer deposits. $5–10 bn in customer deposits is equivalent to a small to midsize U.S. commercial bank.”

Todaro added that while merchant adoption still remains limited for stablecoins, there is real demand for these assets in developing economies as well as those with political instability, such as in Latin America, parts of the Middle East, and to an extent, Hong Kong. He also noted that derivatives volumes have spiked recently (at Deribit, CME and others), but a large portion of that is tied to price action, as increased volatility almost always tends to drive increased trade volumes. 

Vinokourov believes that the recent spell of low volatility and thin trading volumes has evolved into one of the busiest periods for digital assets in recent memory: “Volumes on spot and derivatives venues spiked higher as Bitcoin traded over $11,000, and other large cap assets followed in lockstep.” Vinokourov further opined: 

“Particular attention ought to be paid to the evolution of Ethereum volatility profile which, despite coming off recent highs, remains elevated relative to Bitcoin. This suggests more potential volatility for the second largest cryptocurrency.”

BTC Fear and Greed Index’s correlation with its price 

Another aspect worth exploring is the relationship that may or may not exist between Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index and its price, and if the metric can suggest a possible price direction. Expounding his views on the matter, Todaro opined that the index is calculated based on a few variables that are, to an extent, affected by price, forcing the index to follow certain niche inputs such as the velocity of price gains, all-time high prices and price momentum, among other parameters.

2020 Bitcoin price vs Fear and Greed Index

For instance, if there is a large crash in the market, volatility will increase, and the index will conclude that the market has high fear. In doing so, the index ultimately follows the price. Additionally, the index captures Google trends, with high interest in positive crypto-related terms meaning high greed. Therefore, Todaro believes that the index can be used to make current and future investment decisions:

"While the price of Bitcoin isn’t back to all-time highs, this was the fastest price gain over a 10-day period in its history, which would read extremely greedy, and so maybe it is time to sell and wait for a pullback to re-enter.”

Another correlation worth exploring is the one between Bitcoin and the S&P 500. According to Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan, the previously high correlation between crypto-assets and the S&P 500 has now decreased:

“We can clearly see earlier this year, where the correlation spiked up to 0.6 due to the multi-asset early-pandemic sell-off. By now, however, we’re once again below 0.2, which basically means that there is no correlation on a day-to-day basis anymore.”

Furthermore, Greenspan noted that even a peak of 0.6 only represents a very loose correlation, adding, “Many stocks have a very high correlation with each other, usually above 0.8 even if they’re in completely different industries, and many altcoins are similar.”

90- day pearson correlation between Bitcoin and S&P 500

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Key shipping company files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The Illinois-based general freight trucking company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to reorganize.

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The U.S. trucking industry has had a difficult beginning of the year for 2024 with several logistics companies filing for bankruptcy to seek either a Chapter 7 liquidation or Chapter 11 reorganization.

The Covid-19 pandemic caused a lot of supply chain issues for logistics companies and also created a shortage of truck drivers as many left the business for other occupations. Shipping companies, in the meantime, have had extreme difficulty recruiting new drivers for thousands of unfilled jobs.

Related: Tesla rival’s filing reveals Chapter 11 bankruptcy is possible

Freight forwarder company Boateng Logistics joined a growing list of shipping companies that permanently shuttered their businesses as the firm on Feb. 22 filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy with plans to liquidate.

The Carlsbad, Calif., logistics company filed its petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of California listing assets up to $50,000 and and $1 million to $10 million in liabilities. Court papers said it owed millions of dollars in liabilities to trucking, logistics and factoring companies. The company filed bankruptcy before any creditors could take legal action.

Lawsuits force companies to liquidate in bankruptcy

Lawsuits, however, can force companies to file bankruptcy, which was the case for J.J. & Sons Logistics of Clint, Texas, which on Jan. 22 filed for Chapter 7 liquidation in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Texas. The company filed bankruptcy four days before the scheduled start of a trial for a wrongful death lawsuit filed by the family of a former company truck driver who had died from drowning in 2016.

California-based logistics company Wise Choice Trans Corp. shut down operations and filed for Chapter 7 liquidation on Jan. 4 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of California, listing $1 million to $10 million in assets and liabilities.

The Hayward, Calif., third-party logistics company, founded in 2009, provided final mile, less-than-truckload and full truckload services, as well as warehouse and fulfillment services in the San Francisco Bay Area.

The Chapter 7 filing also implemented an automatic stay against all legal proceedings, as the company listed its involvement in four legal actions that were ongoing or concluded. Court papers reportedly did not list amounts for damages.

In some cases, debtors don't have to take a drastic action, such as a liquidation, and can instead file a Chapter 11 reorganization.

Truck shipping products.

Shutterstock

Nationwide Cargo seeks to reorganize its business

Nationwide Cargo Inc., a general freight trucking company that also hauls fresh produce and meat, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Illinois with plans to reorganize its business.

The East Dundee, Ill., shipping company listed $1 million to $10 million in assets and $10 million to $50 million in liabilities in its petition and said funds will not be available to pay unsecured creditors. The company operates with 183 trucks and 171 drivers, FreightWaves reported.

Nationwide Cargo's three largest secured creditors in the petition were Equify Financial LLC (owed about $3.5 million,) Commercial Credit Group (owed about $1.8 million) and Continental Bank NA (owed about $676,000.)

The shipping company reported gross revenue of about $34 million in 2022 and about $40 million in 2023.  From Jan. 1 until its petition date, the company generated $9.3 million in gross revenue.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Key shipping company files Chapter 11 bankruptcy

The Illinois-based general freight trucking company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy to reorganize.

Published

on

The U.S. trucking industry has had a difficult beginning of the year for 2024 with several logistics companies filing for bankruptcy to seek either a Chapter 7 liquidation or Chapter 11 reorganization.

The Covid-19 pandemic caused a lot of supply chain issues for logistics companies and also created a shortage of truck drivers as many left the business for other occupations. Shipping companies, in the meantime, have had extreme difficulty recruiting new drivers for thousands of unfilled jobs.

Related: Tesla rival’s filing reveals Chapter 11 bankruptcy is possible

Freight forwarder company Boateng Logistics joined a growing list of shipping companies that permanently shuttered their businesses as the firm on Feb. 22 filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy with plans to liquidate.

The Carlsbad, Calif., logistics company filed its petition in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of California listing assets up to $50,000 and and $1 million to $10 million in liabilities. Court papers said it owed millions of dollars in liabilities to trucking, logistics and factoring companies. The company filed bankruptcy before any creditors could take legal action.

Lawsuits force companies to liquidate in bankruptcy

Lawsuits, however, can force companies to file bankruptcy, which was the case for J.J. & Sons Logistics of Clint, Texas, which on Jan. 22 filed for Chapter 7 liquidation in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Western District of Texas. The company filed bankruptcy four days before the scheduled start of a trial for a wrongful death lawsuit filed by the family of a former company truck driver who had died from drowning in 2016.

California-based logistics company Wise Choice Trans Corp. shut down operations and filed for Chapter 7 liquidation on Jan. 4 in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of California, listing $1 million to $10 million in assets and liabilities.

The Hayward, Calif., third-party logistics company, founded in 2009, provided final mile, less-than-truckload and full truckload services, as well as warehouse and fulfillment services in the San Francisco Bay Area.

The Chapter 7 filing also implemented an automatic stay against all legal proceedings, as the company listed its involvement in four legal actions that were ongoing or concluded. Court papers reportedly did not list amounts for damages.

In some cases, debtors don't have to take a drastic action, such as a liquidation, and can instead file a Chapter 11 reorganization.

Truck shipping products.

Shutterstock

Nationwide Cargo seeks to reorganize its business

Nationwide Cargo Inc., a general freight trucking company that also hauls fresh produce and meat, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Illinois with plans to reorganize its business.

The East Dundee, Ill., shipping company listed $1 million to $10 million in assets and $10 million to $50 million in liabilities in its petition and said funds will not be available to pay unsecured creditors. The company operates with 183 trucks and 171 drivers, FreightWaves reported.

Nationwide Cargo's three largest secured creditors in the petition were Equify Financial LLC (owed about $3.5 million,) Commercial Credit Group (owed about $1.8 million) and Continental Bank NA (owed about $676,000.)

The shipping company reported gross revenue of about $34 million in 2022 and about $40 million in 2023.  From Jan. 1 until its petition date, the company generated $9.3 million in gross revenue.

Related: Veteran fund manager picks favorite stocks for 2024

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Tight inventory and frustrated buyers challenge agents in Virginia

With inventory a little more than half of what it was pre-pandemic, agents are struggling to find homes for clients in Virginia.

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No matter where you are in the state, real estate agents in Virginia are facing low inventory conditions that are creating frustrating scenarios for their buyers.

“I think people are getting used to the interest rates where they are now, but there is just a huge lack of inventory,” said Chelsea Newcomb, a RE/MAX Realty Specialists agent based in Charlottesville. “I have buyers that are looking, but to find a house that you love enough to pay a high price for — and to be at over a 6.5% interest rate — it’s just a little bit harder to find something.”

Newcomb said that interest rates and higher prices, which have risen by more than $100,000 since March 2020, according to data from Altos Research, have caused her clients to be pickier when selecting a home.

“When rates and prices were lower, people were more willing to compromise,” Newcomb said.

Out in Wise, Virginia, near the westernmost tip of the state, RE/MAX Cavaliers agent Brett Tiller and his clients are also struggling to find suitable properties.

“The thing that really stands out, especially compared to two years ago, is the lack of quality listings,” Tiller said. “The slightly more upscale single-family listings for move-up buyers with children looking for their forever home just aren’t coming on the market right now, and demand is still very high.”

Statewide, Virginia had a 90-day average of 8,068 active single-family listings as of March 8, 2024, down from 14,471 single-family listings in early March 2020 at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Altos Research. That represents a decrease of 44%.

Virginia-Inventory-Line-Chart-Virginia-90-day-Single-Family

In Newcomb’s base metro area of Charlottesville, there were an average of only 277 active single-family listings during the same recent 90-day period, compared to 892 at the onset of the pandemic. In Wise County, there were only 56 listings.

Due to the demand from move-up buyers in Tiller’s area, the average days on market for homes with a median price of roughly $190,000 was just 17 days as of early March 2024.

“For the right home, which is rare to find right now, we are still seeing multiple offers,” Tiller said. “The demand is the same right now as it was during the heart of the pandemic.”

According to Tiller, the tight inventory has caused homebuyers to spend up to six months searching for their new property, roughly double the time it took prior to the pandemic.

For Matt Salway in the Virginia Beach metro area, the tight inventory conditions are creating a rather hot market.

“Depending on where you are in the area, your listing could have 15 offers in two days,” the agent for Iron Valley Real Estate Hampton Roads | Virginia Beach said. “It has been crazy competition for most of Virginia Beach, and Norfolk is pretty hot too, especially for anything under $400,000.”

According to Altos Research, the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News housing market had a seven-day average Market Action Index score of 52.44 as of March 14, making it the seventh hottest housing market in the country. Altos considers any Market Action Index score above 30 to be indicative of a seller’s market.

Virginia-Beach-Metro-Area-Market-Action-Index-Line-Chart-Virginia-Beach-Norfolk-Newport-News-VA-NC-90-day-Single-Family

Further up the coastline on the vacation destination of Chincoteague Island, Long & Foster agent Meghan O. Clarkson is also seeing a decent amount of competition despite higher prices and interest rates.

“People are taking their time to actually come see things now instead of buying site unseen, and occasionally we see some seller concessions, but the traffic and the demand is still there; you might just work a little longer with people because we don’t have anything for sale,” Clarkson said.

“I’m busy and constantly have appointments, but the underlying frenzy from the height of the pandemic has gone away, but I think it is because we have just gotten used to it.”

While much of the demand that Clarkson’s market faces is for vacation homes and from retirees looking for a scenic spot to retire, a large portion of the demand in Salway’s market comes from military personnel and civilians working under government contracts.

“We have over a dozen military bases here, plus a bunch of shipyards, so the closer you get to all of those bases, the easier it is to sell a home and the faster the sale happens,” Salway said.

Due to this, Salway said that existing-home inventory typically does not come on the market unless an employment contract ends or the owner is reassigned to a different base, which is currently contributing to the tight inventory situation in his market.

Things are a bit different for Tiller and Newcomb, who are seeing a decent number of buyers from other, more expensive parts of the state.

“One of the crazy things about Louisa and Goochland, which are kind of like suburbs on the western side of Richmond, is that they are growing like crazy,” Newcomb said. “A lot of people are coming in from Northern Virginia because they can work remotely now.”

With a Market Action Index score of 50, it is easy to see why people are leaving the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria market for the Charlottesville market, which has an index score of 41.

In addition, the 90-day average median list price in Charlottesville is $585,000 compared to $729,900 in the D.C. area, which Newcomb said is also luring many Virginia homebuyers to move further south.

Median-Price-D.C.-vs.-Charlottesville-Line-Chart-90-day-Single-Family

“They are very accustomed to higher prices, so they are super impressed with the prices we offer here in the central Virginia area,” Newcomb said.

For local buyers, Newcomb said this means they are frequently being outbid or outpriced.

“A couple who is local to the area and has been here their whole life, they are just now starting to get their mind wrapped around the fact that you can’t get a house for $200,000 anymore,” Newcomb said.

As the year heads closer to spring, triggering the start of the prime homebuying season, agents in Virginia feel optimistic about the market.

“We are seeing seasonal trends like we did up through 2019,” Clarkson said. “The market kind of soft launched around President’s Day and it is still building, but I expect it to pick right back up and be in full swing by Easter like it always used to.”

But while they are confident in demand, questions still remain about whether there will be enough inventory to support even more homebuyers entering the market.

“I have a lot of buyers starting to come off the sidelines, but in my office, I also have a lot of people who are going to list their house in the next two to three weeks now that the weather is starting to break,” Newcomb said. “I think we are going to have a good spring and summer.”

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