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Bitcoin nerves, DeFi defiant, PayPal debut, Coinbase warning: Hodler’s Digest, Nov. 9–15

Bitcoin nerves, DeFi defiant, PayPal debut, Coinbase warning: Hodler’s Digest, Nov. 9–15

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The best (and worst) quotes, adoption and regulation highlights, leading coins, predictions and much more — one week on Cointelegraph in one link!

Coming every Sunday, Hodlers Digest will help you track every single important news story that happened this week. The best (and worst) quotes, adoption and regulation highlights, leading coins, predictions and much more a week on Cointelegraph in one link.

 

Top Stories This Week

Bitcoin price at $16,000 and beyond? Here are the bear and bull cases

Were undoubtedly in a bull market right now. This week, Bitcoin hit $16,000 for the first time in years.

Even this weekends volatility hasnt been enough to derail BTCs momentum. Although prices abruptly dropped to $15,670 overnight on Sunday, traders quickly stepped in to defend $16,000.

It is exceptionally rare for Bitcoin to perform this well. The worlds biggest cryptocurrency has only closed above $16,320 on 12 days in its history just 0.28% of the time.

Naturally, the question now is whether BTCs strength will remain, given how its in touching distance of surpassing the current all-time high of $20,089.

Analysts at IntoTheBlock say there is little resistance between $16,300 and $18,750, indicating that further upside is possible.

However, with extreme greed flashing on the Fear & Greed Index, Cointelegraph contributor Michal van de Poppe has warned a correction is almost inevitable in the short term.

 

Fund execs offer $1M bets that Bitcoins S2F model wont come true

PlanB, the creator of the stock-to-flow model, has doubled down on his assertion that BTCs best days lie ahead, saying he has no doubt whatsoever that Bitcoin prices will have reached $100,000$288,000 by December 2021.

His model has caused controversy over the years, and now, one hedge fund executive is inviting S2F enthusiasts to put their money where their mouth is.

Eric Wall, the chief investment officer at Arcane Assets, is offering a $1-million bet that Bitcoin wont have come within 50% of PlanBs target range by 2025, let alone by next December.

This is not a joke. Im willing to lock up the money for it with a 3rd party we both trust, and you must too, he wrote.

 

DeFi the odds: Total user numbers up 55% in just six weeks

October was a grim month for many decentralized finance tokens. Faced with heavy losses, some were hastily proclaiming that the DeFi bubble had well and truly burst.

But wait a minute. Data from Dune Analytics shows there has been sustained, sector-wide growth in activity with user numbers growing 55% since the start of October.

Lending protocol Compound and decentralized exchange dYdX were among DeFis strongest gainers, increasing their user bases over the past 30 days by 250% and 50%, respectively.

Also this week, research from IntoTheBlock suggested that institutional money is flowing into DeFi with Yearn.finances YFI among the top beneficiaries. On-chain transactions of $100,000 or higher have increased by 282% over the past week, including almost $134 million worth of activity on Tuesday alone.

 

PayPals crypto trading service goes live in the U.S.

The wait is over. PayPal now allows all eligible customers in the United States to buy, sell and hold Bitcoin, Ether, Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin.

Crypto purchases are limited at $20,000 a week double the originally announced $10,000 and customers are set to be informed of the new services within the coming days. No fees are being charged on crypto transactions until the end of the year.

These features are also set to be unveiled globally at the beginning of 2021, and the e-commerce platforms 26 million merchants will soon be able to accept crypto as a payment method, too.

Itll be interesting to see whether the rollout will encourage greater levels of crypto adoption among the masses, especially in light of BTCs recent surge. Google Trends data suggests there has been little retail interest in Bitcoins boom of late, indicating that institutional investors have been driving the cryptocurrency up.

 

EU will decide on digital euro in January 2021, ECB president says

European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde has said that the bank should reach a decision on whether to release a digital euro early next year.

However, she stressed that the ECB is not racing to be first in the quest to launch a central bank digital currency.

Hinting that the institution is leaning toward pushing ahead with a central bank digital currency, she added: My hunch but this is a decision that will be taken collectively is that we might well go in that direction.

And Lagarde also revealed that it will probably take two, three, four years for a digital euro to see the light of day.

This week, a Deutsche Bank report warned that this non-urgent approach to CBDCs might not be good enough.

Germanys largest banking institution said it is confident that CBDCs will replace cash in the future and said the U.S. and Europe could suffer consequences unless it starts catching up now.

They may find that their companies are forced to adopt the digital currencies and policies of other countries as payment mediums, Deutsche Bank wrote.

 

Druckenmiller embraces Bitcoin

Winners and Losers

Gainers and Losers of the Week

At the end of the week, Bitcoin is at $16,036.69, Ether at $455.47 and XRP at $0.27. The total market cap is at $459,967,203,314.

Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin gainers of the week are SushiSwap (94.55%), THORChain (72.34%)and Uniswap (50.27%). The top three altcoin losers of the week are HedgeTrade (-14.86%), The Midas Touch Gold (-13.63%) and Augur (13.35%).

For more info on crypto prices, make sure to read Cointelegraphs market analysis.

 

Most Memorable Quotations

 

XRP would have been declared as a security if the SEC understood cryptos. This is a classic case of a market being manipulated by a bag-holder.

Peter Brandt, veteran trader

 

Theres a lot of scope for upside. Most of the gains that come are the year after the halvening, and were seven months into that year after the halvening, and Bitcoins doing what it should do.

Brian Kelly, BK Asset Management

 

This is the death knell of Bitcoin. It was fun whilst it lasted. $3k here we come.

Crypto Emporium

 

Many levels beneath the current price are untested on the weekly timeframe. A healthy way to build up a new cycle is the backtesting of previous resistance levels as new areas of support.

Michal van de Poppe, Cointelegraph analyst

 

Looking for validation that Bitcoin whales are confident in their assets? The number of addresses holding at least 10,000 $BTC has just matched a 2020 high of 111. Additionally, those with 1,0009,999 $BTC are now just 6 below the ATH of 2,135 wallets.

Santiment

 

[In January 2021] we will make the decision as to whether or not we go forward with the digital euro. My hunch but this is a decision that will be taken collectively is that we might well go in that direction.

Christine Lagarde, European Central Bank president

 

#Apple could generate $100 billion or more in shareholder value if they integrated #Bitcoin into Apple Pay, built a secure crypto wallet into the iPhone, and began buying #BTC with their Treasury Reserves.

Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy CEO

 

I bet $1,000,000 that the S2FX model will be broken less than five years from now. This is not a joke. Im willing to lock up the money for it with a third party we both trust, and you must too. I define broken = it wont have reached even 50% of its target range.

Eric Wall, Arcane Assets chief investment officer

 

If you have failed to report holding Bitcoin or other virtual currencies on your past returns or filed an incomplete or misleading picture of your cryptocurrency holdings, the time to act to correct this is now.

The Tax Law Office of David W. Klasing

 

People ask if I still believe in my model. To be clear: I have no doubt whatsoever that #bitcoin S2FX is correct and #bitcoin will tap $100K-288K before Dec2021.

PlanB

 

CBDCs are the future

Prediction of the Week

Macro factors could bring Bitcoin to $1 trillion market cap, strategic investor says

Lyn Alden believes Bitcoins growing network effect, coupled with favorable macroeconomic factors, may bring its market capitalization to $1 trillion in the next few years.

The strategic investor said that the environment generated by the coronavirus pandemic favors Bitcoin.

Central banks have been forced to embark on money-printing sprees to shield their economies of late, while interest rates have been at historic lows.

All of this makes scarce assets that retain their value in an inflationary environment, such as gold and Bitcoin, far more appealing.

Over the coming years, shes predicting there will be a significant capital spillover from traditional assets into the worlds leading cryptocurrency.

 

FUD of the Week

 

U.S. law firm says IRS is coming after Coinbase users who evade taxes

If youre a Coinbase user in the U.S., listen up.

A boutique Californian tax firm has warned that the IRS is stepping up its efforts against those who fail to comply with tax and reporting requirements.

Klasing Associates said: If you have failed to report holding Bitcoin or other virtual currencies on your past returns or filed an incomplete or misleading picture of your cryptocurrency holdings, the time to act to correct this is now.

The accountants added that it will be too late to make amends once an audit or a criminal tax investigation has begun.

The firms warning came off the back of Coinbases first-ever transparency report, which was released back in October. It said that the hundreds of information requests filed by U.S. bodies such as the IRS should serve as a major wake-up call to crypto owners.

This data makes it clear that the IRS is requesting information from Coinbase for the express purpose of checking it against its own taxpayer data and looking for discrepancies where holdings on Coinbase have not been reported on taxpayers returns, the firm added.

 

Sam Bankman-Fried believes even ETH 2.0 cant handle DeFis potential growth

Ethereum is about to launch a brand-new blockchain that will substantially increase the number of transactions per second it can handle. But according to Sam Bankman-Fried, even this upgrade wont be futureproof.

The FTX exchange co-founder has claimed Ethereum 2.0 wont be able to handle decentralized finances continued growth, which has already seen transaction fees go through the roof.

He told the Defiant podcast that Ethereum was holding DeFi back, and the only solution was to start building on other networks.

Bankman-Fried claims to have tested more than 30 blockchains, including Ethereum, before deciding to build his DeFi project Serum on the Solana blockchain due to its speed and infrastructure.

He also predicted that DeFi could one day be used by 1 billion people worldwide and said radical action is needed to ensure that blockchains can cope with such a user base. Setting out whats needed, the entrepreneur added: Not just 100 times faster than Ethereum, we need, like, a million times faster than Ethereum.

 

Crypto crimes declined in 2020 but DeFi hacks are on the rise, report warns

Cryptocurrency-related crimes have slowed down in 2020 but the decentralized finance sector has become a new hotbed for hacks and thefts, according to CipherTrace.

The blockchain analytics firm said total losses from crypto thefts, hacks and fraud dropped from $4.4 billion in 2019 to $1.8 billion over the first 10 months of 2020.

Although these statistics seem really encouraging on the face of it, they dont tell the whole story. DeFi hacks were virtually negligible in 2019, but now account for 20% of all losses.

Companies and individuals have rushed DeFi products to market that have not gone through security verification and validation. […] So people are figuring out that theres a weakness here, CipherTrace CEO Dave Jevans said.

Best Cointelegraph Features

 

As Bitcoin price rises, institutions get down with digital assets

Institutional interest in Bitcoin continues to rise as bullish sentiment around BTC prevails.

Simple in practice: Crypto education is key to curbing phishing scams

Even though wallet operators have a large role to play in protecting funds, customers also need to educate themselves to avoid phishing scams.

Silence is not golden: OKEx still quiet as customers seek answers

The way OKEx has handled its nearly month-long withdrawal ban has left many of the companys loyal customers confused and angry.

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International

Mistakes Were Made

Mistakes Were Made

Authored by C.J.Hopkins via The Consent Factory,

Make fun of the Germans all you want, and I’ve certainly done that…

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Mistakes Were Made

Authored by C.J.Hopkins via The Consent Factory,

Make fun of the Germans all you want, and I’ve certainly done that a bit during these past few years, but, if there’s one thing they’re exceptionally good at, it’s taking responsibility for their mistakes. Seriously, when it comes to acknowledging one’s mistakes, and not rationalizing, or minimizing, or attempting to deny them, and any discomfort they may have allegedly caused, no one does it quite like the Germans.

Take this Covid mess, for example. Just last week, the German authorities confessed that they made a few minor mistakes during their management of the “Covid pandemic.” According to Karl Lauterbach, the Minister of Health, “we were sometimes too strict with the children and probably started easing the restrictions a little too late.” Horst Seehofer, the former Interior Minister, admitted that he would no longer agree to some of the Covid restrictions today, for example, nationwide nighttime curfews. “One must be very careful with calls for compulsory vaccination,” he added. Helge Braun, Head of the Chancellery and Minister for Special Affairs under Merkel, agreed that there had been “misjudgments,” for example, “overestimating the effectiveness of the vaccines.”

This display of the German authorities’ unwavering commitment to transparency and honesty, and the principle of personal honor that guides the German authorities in all their affairs, and that is deeply ingrained in the German character, was published in a piece called “The Divisive Virus” in Der Spiegel, and immediately widely disseminated by the rest of the German state and corporate media in a totally organic manner which did not in any way resemble one enormous Goebbelsian keyboard instrument pumping out official propaganda in perfect synchronization, or anything creepy and fascistic like that.

Germany, after all, is “an extremely democratic state,” with freedom of speech and the press and all that, not some kind of totalitarian country where the masses are inundated with official propaganda and critics of the government are dragged into criminal court and prosecuted on trumped-up “hate crime” charges.

OK, sure, in a non-democratic totalitarian system, such public “admissions of mistakes” — and the synchronized dissemination thereof by the media — would just be a part of the process of whitewashing the authorities’ fascistic behavior during some particularly totalitarian phase of transforming society into whatever totalitarian dystopia they were trying to transform it into (for example, a three-year-long “state of emergency,” which they declared to keep the masses terrorized and cooperative while they stripped them of their democratic rights, i.e., the ones they hadn’t already stripped them of, and conditioned them to mindlessly follow orders, and robotically repeat nonsensical official slogans, and vent their impotent hatred and fear at the new “Untermenschen” or “counter-revolutionaries”), but that is obviously not the case here.

No, this is definitely not the German authorities staging a public “accountability” spectacle in order to memory-hole what happened during 2020-2023 and enshrine the official narrative in history. There’s going to be a formal “Inquiry Commission” — conducted by the same German authorities that managed the “crisis” — which will get to the bottom of all the regrettable but completely understandable “mistakes” that were made in the heat of the heroic battle against The Divisive Virus!

OK, calm down, all you “conspiracy theorists,” “Covid deniers,” and “anti-vaxxers.” This isn’t going to be like the Nuremberg Trials. No one is going to get taken out and hanged. It’s about identifying and acknowledging mistakes, and learning from them, so that the authorities can manage everything better during the next “pandemic,” or “climate emergency,” or “terrorist attack,” or “insurrection,” or whatever.

For example, the Inquiry Commission will want to look into how the government accidentally declared a Nationwide State of Pandemic Emergency and revised the Infection Protection Act, suspending the German constitution and granting the government the power to rule by decree, on account of a respiratory virus that clearly posed no threat to society at large, and then unleashed police goon squads on the thousands of people who gathered outside the Reichstag to protest the revocation of their constitutional rights.

Once they do, I’m sure they’ll find that that “mistake” bears absolutely no resemblance to the Enabling Act of 1933, which suspended the German constitution and granted the government the power to rule by decree, after the Nazis declared a nationwide “state of emergency.”

Another thing the Commission will probably want to look into is how the German authorities accidentally banned any further demonstrations against their arbitrary decrees, and ordered the police to brutalize anyone participating in such “illegal demonstrations.”

And, while the Commission is inquiring into the possibly slightly inappropriate behavior of their law enforcement officials, they might want to also take a look at the behavior of their unofficial goon squads, like Antifa, which they accidentally encouraged to attack the “anti-vaxxers,” the “Covid deniers,” and anyone brandishing a copy of the German constitution.

Come to think of it, the Inquiry Commission might also want to look into how the German authorities, and the overwhelming majority of the state and corporate media, accidentally systematically fomented mass hatred of anyone who dared to question the government’s arbitrary and nonsensical decrees or who refused to submit to “vaccination,” and publicly demonized us as “Corona deniers,” “conspiracy theorists,” “anti-vaxxers,” “far-right anti-Semites,” etc., to the point where mainstream German celebrities like Sarah Bosetti were literally describing us as the inessential “appendix” in the body of the nation, quoting an infamous Nazi almost verbatim.

And then there’s the whole “vaccination” business. The Commission will certainly want to inquire into that. They will probably want to start their inquiry with Karl Lauterbach, and determine exactly how he accidentally lied to the public, over and over, and over again …

And whipped people up into a mass hysteria over “KILLER VARIANTS” …

And “LONG COVID BRAIN ATTACKS” …

And how “THE UNVACCINATED ARE HOLDING THE WHOLE COUNTRY HOSTAGE, SO WE NEED TO FORCIBLY VACCINATE EVERYONE!”

And so on. I could go on with this all day, but it will be much easier to just refer you, and the Commission, to this documentary film by Aya Velázquez. Non-German readers may want to skip to the second half, unless they’re interested in the German “Corona Expert Council” …

Look, the point is, everybody makes “mistakes,” especially during a “state of emergency,” or a war, or some other type of global “crisis.” At least we can always count on the Germans to step up and take responsibility for theirs, and not claim that they didn’t know what was happening, or that they were “just following orders,” or that “the science changed.”

Plus, all this Covid stuff is ancient history, and, as Olaf, an editor at Der Spiegel, reminds us, it’s time to put the “The Divisive Pandemic” behind us …

… and click heels, and heil the New Normal Democracy!

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/16/2024 - 23:20

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Government

Harvard Medical School Professor Was Fired Over Not Getting COVID Vaccine

Harvard Medical School Professor Was Fired Over Not Getting COVID Vaccine

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A…

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Harvard Medical School Professor Was Fired Over Not Getting COVID Vaccine

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A Harvard Medical School professor who refused to get a COVID-19 vaccine has been terminated, according to documents reviewed by The Epoch Times.

Martin Kulldorff, epidemiologist and statistician, at his home in Ashford, Conn., on Feb. 11, 2022. (Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times)

Martin Kulldorff, an epidemiologist, was fired by Mass General Brigham in November 2021 over noncompliance with the hospital’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate after his requests for exemptions from the mandate were denied, according to one document. Mr. Kulldorff was also placed on leave by Harvard Medical School (HMS) because his appointment as professor of medicine there “depends upon” holding a position at the hospital, another document stated.

Mr. Kulldorff asked HMS in late 2023 how he could return to his position and was told he was being fired.

You would need to hold an eligible appointment with a Harvard-affiliated institution for your HMS academic appointment to continue,” Dr. Grace Huang, dean for faculty affairs, told the epidemiologist and biostatistician.

She said the lack of an appointment, combined with college rules that cap leaves of absence at two years, meant he was being terminated.

Mr. Kulldorff disclosed the firing for the first time this month.

“While I can’t comment on the specifics due to employment confidentiality protections that preclude us from doing so, I can confirm that his employment agreement was terminated November 10, 2021,” a spokesperson for Brigham and Women’s Hospital told The Epoch Times via email.

Mass General Brigham granted just 234 exemption requests out of 2,402 received, according to court filings in an ongoing case that alleges discrimination.

The hospital said previously, “We received a number of exemption requests, and each request was carefully considered by a knowledgeable team of reviewers.

A lot of other people received exemptions, but I did not,” Mr. Kulldorff told The Epoch Times.

Mr. Kulldorff was originally hired by HMS but switched departments in 2015 to work at the Department of Medicine at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, which is part of Mass General Brigham and affiliated with HMS.

Harvard Medical School has affiliation agreements with several Boston hospitals which it neither owns nor operationally controls,” an HMS spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an email. “Hospital-based faculty, such as Mr. Kulldorff, are employed by one of the affiliates, not by HMS, and require an active hospital appointment to maintain an academic appointment at Harvard Medical School.”

HMS confirmed that some faculty, who are tenured or on the tenure track, do not require hospital appointments.

Natural Immunity

Before the COVID-19 vaccines became available, Mr. Kulldorff contracted COVID-19. He was hospitalized but eventually recovered.

That gave him a form of protection known as natural immunity. According to a number of studies, including papers from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, natural immunity is better than the protection bestowed by vaccines.

Other studies have found that people with natural immunity face a higher risk of problems after vaccination.

Mr. Kulldorff expressed his concerns about receiving a vaccine in his request for a medical exemption, pointing out a lack of data for vaccinating people who suffer from the same issue he does.

I already had superior infection-acquired immunity; and it was risky to vaccinate me without proper efficacy and safety studies on patients with my type of immune deficiency,” Mr. Kulldorff wrote in an essay.

In his request for a religious exemption, he highlighted an Israel study that was among the first to compare protection after infection to protection after vaccination. Researchers found that the vaccinated had less protection than the naturally immune.

“Having had COVID disease, I have stronger longer lasting immunity than those vaccinated (Gazit et al). Lacking scientific rationale, vaccine mandates are religious dogma, and I request a religious exemption from COVID vaccination,” he wrote.

Both requests were denied.

Mr. Kulldorff is still unvaccinated.

“I had COVID. I had it badly. So I have infection-acquired immunity. So I don’t need the vaccine,” he told The Epoch Times.

Dissenting Voice

Mr. Kulldorff has been a prominent dissenting voice during the COVID-19 pandemic, countering messaging from the government and many doctors that the COVID-19 vaccines were needed, regardless of prior infection.

He spoke out in an op-ed in April 2021, for instance, against requiring people to provide proof of vaccination to attend shows, go to school, and visit restaurants.

The idea that everybody needs to be vaccinated is as scientifically baseless as the idea that nobody does. Covid vaccines are essential for older, high-risk people and their caretakers and advisable for many others. But those who’ve been infected are already immune,” he wrote at the time.

Mr. Kulldorff later co-authored the Great Barrington Declaration, which called for focused protection of people at high risk while removing restrictions for younger, healthy people.

Harsh restrictions such as school closures “will cause irreparable damage” if not lifted, the declaration stated.

The declaration drew criticism from Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Rochelle Walensky, who became the head of the CDC, among others.

In a competing document, Dr. Walensky and others said that “relying upon immunity from natural infections for COVID-19 is flawed” and that “uncontrolled transmission in younger people risks significant morbidity(3) and mortality across the whole population.”

“Those who are pushing these vaccine mandates and vaccine passports—vaccine fanatics, I would call them—to me they have done much more damage during this one year than the anti-vaxxers have done in two decades,” Mr. Kulldorff later said in an EpochTV interview. “I would even say that these vaccine fanatics, they are the biggest anti-vaxxers that we have right now. They’re doing so much more damage to vaccine confidence than anybody else.

Surveys indicate that people have less trust now in the CDC and other health institutions than before the pandemic, and data from the CDC and elsewhere show that fewer people are receiving the new COVID-19 vaccines and other shots.

Support

The disclosure that Mr. Kulldorff was fired drew criticism of Harvard and support for Mr. Kulldorff.

The termination “is a massive and incomprehensible injustice,” Dr. Aaron Kheriaty, an ethics expert who was fired from the University of California–Irvine School of Medicine for not getting a COVID-19 vaccine because he had natural immunity, said on X.

The academy is full of people who declined vaccines—mostly with dubious exemptions—and yet Harvard fires the one professor who happens to speak out against government policies.” Dr. Vinay Prasad, an epidemiologist at the University of California–San Francisco, wrote in a blog post. “It looks like Harvard has weaponized its policies and selectively enforces them.”

A petition to reinstate Mr. Kulldorff has garnered more than 1,800 signatures.

Some other doctors said the decision to let Mr. Kulldorff go was correct.

“Actions have consequence,” Dr. Alastair McAlpine, a Canadian doctor, wrote on X. He said Mr. Kulldorff had “publicly undermine[d] public health.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/16/2024 - 21:00

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Uncategorized

Correcting the Washington Post’s 11 Charts That Are Supposed to Tell Us How the Economy Changed Since Covid

The Washington Post made some serious errors or omissions in its 11 charts that are supposed to tell us how Covid changed the economy. Wages Starting with…

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The Washington Post made some serious errors or omissions in its 11 charts that are supposed to tell us how Covid changed the economy.

Wages

Starting with its second chart, the article gives us an index of average weekly wages since 2019. The index shows a big jump in 2020, which then falls off in 2021 and 2022, before rising again in 2023.

It tells readers:

“Many Americans got large pay increases after the pandemic, when employers were having to one-up each other to find and keep workers. For a while, those wage gains were wiped out by decade-high inflation: Workers were getting larger paychecks, but it wasn’t enough to keep up with rising prices.”

That actually is not what its chart shows. The big rise in average weekly wages at the start of the pandemic was not the result of workers getting pay increases, it was the result of low-paid workers in sectors like hotels and restaurants losing their jobs.

The number of people employed in the low-paying leisure and hospitality sector fell by more than 8 million at the start of the pandemic. Even at the start of 2021 it was still down by over 4 million.

Laying off low-paid workers raises average wages in the same way that getting the short people to leave raises the average height of the people in the room. The Washington Post might try to tell us that the remaining people grew taller, but that is not what happened.

The other problem with this chart is that it is giving us weekly wages. The length of the average workweek jumped at the start of the pandemic as employers decided to work the workers they had longer hours rather than hire more workers. In January of 2021 the average workweek was 34.9 hours, compared to 34.4 hours in 2019 and 34.3 hours in February.

This increase in hours, by itself, would raise weekly pay by 2.0 percent. As hours returned to normal in 2022, this measure would misleadingly imply that wages were falling.

It is also worth noting that the fastest wage gains since the pandemic have been at the bottom end of the wage distribution and the Black/white wage gap has fallen to its lowest level on record.

Saving Rates

The third chart shows the saving rate since 2019. It shows a big spike at the start of the pandemic, as people stopped spending on things like restaurants and travel and they got pandemic checks from the government. It then falls sharply in 2022 and is lower in the most recent quarters than in 2019.

The piece tells readers:

“But as the world reopened — and people resumed spending on dining out, travel, concerts and other things that were previously off-limits — savings rates have leveled off. Americans are also increasingly dip into rainy-day funds to pay more for necessities, including groceries, housing, education and health care. In fact, Americans are now generally saving less of their incomes than they were before the pandemic.

This is an incomplete picture due to a somewhat technical issue. As I explained in a blogpost a few months ago, there is an unusually large gap between GDP as measured on the output side and GDP measured on the income side. In principle, these two numbers should be the same, but they never come out exactly equal.

In recent quarters, the gap has been 2.5 percent of GDP. This is extraordinarily large, but it also is unusual in that the output side is higher than the income side, the opposite of the standard pattern over the last quarter century.

It is standard for economists to assume that the true number for GDP is somewhere between the two measures. If we make that assumption about the data for 2023, it would imply that income is somewhat higher than the data now show and consumption somewhat lower.

In that story, as I showed in the blogpost, the saving rate for 2023 would be 6.8 percent of disposable income, roughly the same as the average for the three years before the pandemic. This would mean that people are not dipping into their rainy-day funds as the Post tells us. They are spending pretty much as they did before the pandemic.

 

Credit Card Debt

The next graph shows that credit card debt is rising again, after sinking in the pandemic. The piece tells readers:

“But now, debt loads are swinging higher again as families try to keep up with rising prices. Total household debt reached a record $17.5 trillion at the end of 2023, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. And, in a worrisome sign for the economy, delinquency rates on mortgages, car loans and credit cards are all rising, too.”

There are several points worth noting here. Credit card debt is rising, but measured relative to income it is still below where it was before the pandemic. It was 6.7 percent of disposable income at the end of 2019, compared to 6.5 percent at the end of last year.

The second point is that a major reason for the recent surge in credit card debt is that people are no longer refinancing mortgages. There was a massive surge in mortgage refinancing with the low interest rates in 2020-2021.

Many of the people who refinanced took additional money out, taking advantage of the increased equity in their home. This channel of credit was cut off when mortgage rates jumped in 2022 and virtually ended mortgage refinancing. This means that to a large extent the surge in credit card borrowing is simply a shift from mortgage debt to credit card debt.

The point about total household debt hitting a record can be said in most months. Except in the period immediately following the collapse of the housing bubble, total debt is almost always rising.

And the rise in delinquencies simply reflects the fact that they had been at very low levels in 2021 and 2022. For the most part, delinquency rates are just getting back to their pre-pandemic levels, which were historically low.  

 

Grocery Prices and Gas Prices

The next two charts show the patterns in grocery prices and gas prices since the pandemic. It would have been worth mentioning that every major economy in the world saw similar run-ups in prices in these two areas. In other words, there was nothing specific to U.S. policy that led to a surge in inflation here.

 

The Missing Charts

There are several areas where it would have been interesting to see charts which the Post did not include. It would have been useful to have a chart on job quitters, the number of people who voluntarily quit their jobs during the pandemic. In the tight labor markets of 2021 and 2022 the number of workers who left jobs they didn’t like soared to record levels, as shown below.

 

The vast majority of these workers took other jobs that they liked better. This likely explains another item that could appear as a graph, the record level of job satisfaction.

In a similar vein there has been an explosion in the number of people who work from home at least part-time. This has increased by more than 17 million during the pandemic. These workers are saving themselves thousands of dollars a year on commuting costs and related expenses, as well as hundreds of hours spent commuting.

Finally, there has been an explosion in the use of telemedicine since the pandemic. At the peak, nearly one in four visits with a health care professional was a remote consultation. This saved many people with serious health issues the time and inconvenience associated with a trip to a hospital or doctor’s office. The increased use of telemedicine is likely to be a lasting gain from the pandemic.

 

The World Has Changed

The pandemic will likely have a lasting impact on the economy and society. The Washington Post’s charts captured part of this story, but in some cases misrepr

The post Correcting the Washington Post’s 11 Charts That Are Supposed to Tell Us How the Economy Changed Since Covid appeared first on Center for Economic and Policy Research.

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