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Bitcoin flatlines again but TON, LINK, MKR, XTZ are poised for up-move
Bitcoin’s failed breakout to the upside shows that the range-bound action could continue for some time but that may not hinder the bullish possibilities…
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Bitcoin’s failed breakout to the upside shows that the range-bound action could continue for some time but that may not hinder the bullish possibilities in TON, LINK, MKR, and XTZ.
Bitcoin (BTC) tried to break out of its range in the first half of last week but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. Bitcoin is back inside the range and is trading near the $26,000 level.
The price action of the past few days has formed two successive Doji candlestick patterns on the weekly chart, indicating uncertainty about the next directional move.
Although it is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout, the downside could be limited in the near term on expectations that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may eventually approve one or more pending applications for a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund.
Former commission chair Jay Clayton sounded confident when he said in a recent interview that “an approval is inevitable.”
In the near term, it is difficult to pinpoint a specific catalyst that could shake Bitcoin out of its range. The lack of clarity about Bitcoin’s next trending move has kept most major altcoins under pressure.
Only a handful of altcoins are showing signs of strength in the short term. Let’s study the charts of top-five cryptocurrencies that may start a rally if they break above their respective overhead resistance levels.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin is back inside the $24,800 to $26,833 range, but a positive sign is that the bulls continue to buy the dips as seen from the long tail on the Sep. 1 candlestick.
Although the downsloping moving averages indicate advantage to bears, the gradually recovering relative strength index (RSI) shows that the bearish momentum may be weakening. The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the range at $26,833. If that happens, the BTC/USDT pair could retest the Aug. 29 intraday high of $28,142.
If bears want to seize control, they will have to sink and sustain the price below $24,800. This is going to be tough as the bulls are likely to defend the level with all their might. Still, if the bears prevail, the pair can plunge to $20,000. There is a minor support at $24,000 but it may not halt the decline.
The bears tried to pull the price below the immediate support at $25,300 but the bulls held their ground. Buyers will next try to strengthen their position by driving the price above the 20-exponential moving average. If they do that, it will indicate the start of a stronger recovery.
The 50-day simple moving average may act as a roadblock but it is expected to be crossed. The pair could then rally to the overhead resistance at $26,833.
Sellers are likely to have other plans. They will try to sink the price below $25,300 and challenge the vital support at $24,800.
Toncoin price analysis
Toncoin (TON) is in an uptrend but the bears are trying to halt the up-move near the overhead resistance at $2.07.
Both moving averages have turned up, indicating advantage to buyers but the overbought levels on the RSI suggest that a minor correction or consolidation is possible. If the bulls do not give up much ground from the current level, the likelihood of a rally above $2.07 increases. The TON/USDT pair could then soar to $2.40.
Contrarily, a deeper correction may pull the price to the 20-day EMA ($1.61). A strong bounce off this level will suggest that the sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on dips. The trend will turn negative if the 20-day EMA support cracks.
The 4-hour chart shows that the bulls have been buying the pullback to the 20-EMA. Buyers will have to push the price above $1.98 to signal the resumption of the uptrend but the bears may not give up easily.
Sellers will try to pull the price below the 20-EMA. If they manage to do that, the pair could start a deeper pullback toward the 50-SMA. A bounce off this level is likely to face selling at the 20-EMA but if this roadblock is cleared, it will suggest that bulls are back in the driver’s seat.
Chainlink price analysis
Chainlink (LINK) has been trading inside a large range between $5.50 and $9.50 for the past several months. The bears pulled the price below the support of the range on June 10 but they could not sustain the lower levels.
The LINK/USDT pair dropped close to the support of the range on Aug. 17 but the bulls bought this dip as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick. Buyers are trying to start a recovery but are facing resistance near the 20-day EMA ($6.23). Hence, this becomes an important level to look out for.
If buyers propel the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair can start its journey toward the 50-day SMA ($6.94). There is a minor resistance at $6.40 but it is likely to be crossed.
On the contrary, if the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. That could pull the price down to $5.50.
The moving averages have flattened out on the 4-hour chart and the RSI is just above the midpoint. This suggests that the selling pressure is reducing. Buyers will have to kick the price above $6.40 to start a new up-move. The pair could first rise to $6.87 and later to $7.07.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from $6.40, it will signal that bears are selling on rallies. That may keep the pair range-bound between $5.50 and $6.40 for a while longer.
Related: Shibarium hits 1M wallets amid meteoric growth, SHIB yet to catch up
Maker price analysis
Maker (MKR) has taken support near $1,000 but the bulls are facing solid resistance from the bears near the downtrend line.
The bulls repeatedly pushed the price above the downtrend line in the past few days but they failed to sustain the higher levels. A minor positive is that buyers have not given up much ground, which suggests that traders are not dumping their positions in a hurry.
If the price turns up and closes above the downtrend line, it will suggest that buyers are back in the game. The positive momentum is likely to pick up after buyers kick the price above $1,227. The pair may then rally to $1,370.
Instead, if the price sustains below the 20-day EMA ($1,106), it will suggest that bears have the upper hand. The pair could then slump to the strong support at $980.
The 4-hour chart shows that the bulls pushed the price above the downtrend line but they could not sustain the higher levels. This indicates that the bears have not given up and they continue to sell on rallies.
The price has plunged to the 50-SMA, which is an important level to keep an eye on. If the price turns up from the current level, the bulls will again try to overcome the obstacle at $1,186 and then at $1,227. If this zone is scaled, the rally could reach $1,280.
Conversely, if the price sustains below the 50-SMA, it will open the gates for a potential decline to $1,040 and eventually to $980.
Tezos price analysis
Tezos (XTZ) has been witnessing a tussle between the bulls and the bears near the strong support at $0.70. The failure of the bears to sink and sustain the price below this level indicates buying at lower levels.
The downsloping moving averages indicate advantage to bears but the rising RSI suggests that the bearish momentum is reducing. A close above the 20-day EMA ($0.71) will be the first sign of strength. That could pave the way for a rally to the downtrend line.
This level is likely to act as a formidable hurdle but if the bulls overcome it, the XTZ/USDT pair may start a new up-move. The pair can first rally to $0.94 and subsequently to $1.04. This positive view will invalidate if the price skids and sustains below $0.66.
The 4-hour chart shows that the price is consolidating between $0.70 and $0.66. The crisscrossing moving averages and the RSI near the midpoint indicate a balance between supply and demand.
If the price rises above $0.70, the advantage will tilt in favor of the bulls. The pair could then surge to the overhead resistance at $0.74. The advantage will tilt in favor of the bears if they sink the price below $0.68. That is likely to result in a retest of the support at $0.66. If this level crumbles, the pair may start the next leg of the downtrend to $0.61.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
bitcoin crypto btc xtz link crypto
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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism
NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism
One month after the inflation outlook tracked…
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One month after the inflation outlook tracked by the NY Fed Consumer Survey extended their late 2023 slide, with 3Y inflation expectations in January sliding to a record low 2.4% (from 2.6% in December), even as 1 and 5Y inflation forecasts remained flat, moments ago the NY Fed reported that in February there was a sharp rebound in longer-term inflation expectations, rising to 2.7% from 2.4% at the three-year ahead horizon, and jumping to 2.9% from 2.5% at the five-year ahead horizon, while the 1Y inflation outlook was flat for the 3rd month in a row, stuck at 3.0%.
The increases in both the three-year ahead and five-year ahead measures were most pronounced for respondents with at most high school degrees (in other words, the "really smart folks" are expecting deflation soon). The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons, while the median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one- and three-year ahead horizons and remained unchanged at the five-year ahead horizon.
Going down the survey, we find that the median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% for gas; decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 6.8% for the cost of medical care (its lowest reading since September 2020); decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% for the cost of a college education; and surprisingly decreased by 0.3 percentage point for rent to 6.1% (its lowest reading since December 2020), and remained flat for food at 4.9%.
We find the rent expectations surprising because it is happening just asking rents are rising across the country.
At the same time as consumers erroneously saw sharply lower rents, median home price growth expectations remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month at 3.0%.
Turning to the labor market, the survey found that the average perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job separations increased, while the perceived likelihood of finding a job (in the event of a job loss) declined. "The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also increased, by 1.8 percentage points to 19.5%."
Mean unemployment expectations - or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now - decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 36.1%, the lowest reading since February 2022. Additionally, the median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth was unchanged at 2.8%, remaining slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 2.9%.
Turning to household finance, we find the following:
- The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.1%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.9% to 3.3% since January 2023, and remains above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 2.7%.
- Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%. The increase was driven by respondents with a high school degree or less.
- Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased to 9.3% from 8.9%.
- The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 26.1%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 30%.
- Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated somewhat with fewer respondents reporting being better off than a year ago. Year-ahead expectations also deteriorated marginally with a smaller share of respondents expecting to be better off and a slightly larger share of respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now.
- The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.4 percentage point to 38.9%.
- At the same time, perceptions and expectations about credit access turned less optimistic: "Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated with a larger share of respondents reporting tighter conditions and a smaller share reporting looser conditions compared to a year ago."
Also, a smaller percentage of consumers, 11.45% vs 12.14% in prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months
Last, and perhaps most humorous, is the now traditional cognitive dissonance one observes with these polls, because at a time when long-term inflation expectations jumped, which clearly suggests that financial conditions will need to be tightened, the number of respondents expecting higher stock prices one year from today jumped to the highest since November 2021... which incidentally is just when the market topped out during the last cycle before suffering a painful bear market.
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Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more
New Zillow research suggests the spring home shopping season may see a second wave this summer if mortgage rates fall
The post Homes listed for sale in…
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- A Zillow analysis of 2023 home sales finds homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more.
- The best time to list a home for sale is a month later than it was in 2019, likely driven by mortgage rates.
- The best time to list can be as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York and Philadelphia.
Spring home sellers looking to maximize their sale price may want to wait it out and list their home for sale in the first half of June. A new Zillow® analysis of 2023 sales found that homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more, a $7,700 boost on a typical U.S. home.
The best time to list consistently had been early May in the years leading up to the pandemic. The shift to June suggests mortgage rates are strongly influencing demand on top of the usual seasonality that brings buyers to the market in the spring. This home-shopping season is poised to follow a similar pattern as that in 2023, with the potential for a second wave if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates midyear or later.
The 2.3% sale price premium registered last June followed the first spring in more than 15 years with mortgage rates over 6% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. The high rates put home buyers on the back foot, and as rates continued upward through May, they were still reassessing and less likely to bid boldly. In June, however, rates pulled back a little from 6.79% to 6.67%, which likely presented an opportunity for determined buyers heading into summer. More buyers understood their market position and could afford to transact, boosting competition and sale prices.
The old logic was that sellers could earn a premium by listing in late spring, when search activity hit its peak. Now, with persistently low inventory, mortgage rate fluctuations make their own seasonality. First-time home buyers who are on the edge of qualifying for a home loan may dip in and out of the market, depending on what’s happening with rates. It is almost certain the Federal Reserve will push back any interest-rate cuts to mid-2024 at the earliest. If mortgage rates follow, that could bring another surge of buyers later this year.
Mortgage rates have been impacting affordability and sale prices since they began rising rapidly two years ago. In 2022, sellers nationwide saw the highest sale premium when they listed their home in late March, right before rates barreled past 5% and continued climbing.
Zillow’s research finds the best time to list can vary widely by metropolitan area. In 2023, it was as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York. Thirty of the top 35 largest metro areas saw for-sale listings command the highest sale prices between May and early July last year.
Zillow also found a wide range in the sale price premiums associated with homes listed during those peak periods. At the hottest time of the year in San Jose, homes sold for 5.5% more, a $88,000 boost on a typical home. Meanwhile, homes in San Antonio sold for 1.9% more during that same time period.
| Metropolitan Area | Best Time to List | Price Premium | Dollar Boost |
| United States | First half of June | 2.3% | $7,700 |
| New York, NY | First half of July | 2.4% | $15,500 |
| Los Angeles, CA | First half of May | 4.1% | $39,300 |
| Chicago, IL | First half of June | 2.8% | $8,800 |
| Dallas, TX | First half of June | 2.5% | $9,200 |
| Houston, TX | Second half of April | 2.0% | $6,200 |
| Washington, DC | Second half of June | 2.2% | $12,700 |
| Philadelphia, PA | First half of July | 2.4% | $8,200 |
| Miami, FL | First half of June | 2.3% | $12,900 |
| Atlanta, GA | Second half of June | 2.3% | $8,700 |
| Boston, MA | Second half of May | 3.5% | $23,600 |
| Phoenix, AZ | First half of June | 3.2% | $14,700 |
| San Francisco, CA | Second half of February | 4.2% | $50,300 |
| Riverside, CA | First half of May | 2.7% | $15,600 |
| Detroit, MI | First half of July | 3.3% | $7,900 |
| Seattle, WA | First half of June | 4.3% | $31,500 |
| Minneapolis, MN | Second half of May | 3.7% | $13,400 |
| San Diego, CA | Second half of April | 3.1% | $29,600 |
| Tampa, FL | Second half of June | 2.1% | $8,000 |
| Denver, CO | Second half of May | 2.9% | $16,900 |
| Baltimore, MD | First half of July | 2.2% | $8,200 |
| St. Louis, MO | First half of June | 2.9% | $7,000 |
| Orlando, FL | First half of June | 2.2% | $8,700 |
| Charlotte, NC | Second half of May | 3.0% | $11,000 |
| San Antonio, TX | First half of June | 1.9% | $5,400 |
| Portland, OR | Second half of April | 2.6% | $14,300 |
| Sacramento, CA | First half of June | 3.2% | $17,900 |
| Pittsburgh, PA | Second half of June | 2.3% | $4,700 |
| Cincinnati, OH | Second half of April | 2.7% | $7,500 |
| Austin, TX | Second half of May | 2.8% | $12,600 |
| Las Vegas, NV | First half of June | 3.4% | $14,600 |
| Kansas City, MO | Second half of May | 2.5% | $7,300 |
| Columbus, OH | Second half of June | 3.3% | $10,400 |
| Indianapolis, IN | First half of July | 3.0% | $8,100 |
| Cleveland, OH | First half of July | 3.4% | $7,400 |
| San Jose, CA | First half of June | 5.5% | $88,400 |
The post Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more appeared first on Zillow Research.
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February Employment Situation
By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…
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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert
The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.
Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.
Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.
The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.
The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.
Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.
As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.
Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.
The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.
unemployment pandemic unemployment
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