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Bitcoin flatlines again, but TON, LINK, MKR, XTZ are poised for up-move
Bitcoin’s failed breakout to the upside shows that the range-bound action could continue for some time, but that may not hinder the bullish possibilities…
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Bitcoin’s failed breakout to the upside shows that the range-bound action could continue for some time, but that may not hinder the bullish possibilities in TON, LINK, MKR, and XTZ.
Bitcoin (BTC) tried to break out of its range in the first half of last week, but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. Bitcoin is back inside the range and is trading near the $26,000 level.
The price action of the past few days has formed two successive Doji candlestick patterns on the weekly chart, indicating uncertainty about the next directional move.
Although it is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout, the downside could be limited in the near term on expectations that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may eventually approve one or more pending applications for a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund.
Former commission chair Jay Clayton sounded confident when he said in a recent interview that “an approval is inevitable.”
In the near term, it isn’t easy to pinpoint a specific catalyst that could shake Bitcoin out of its range. The lack of clarity about Bitcoin’s next trending move has pressured most major altcoins.
Only a handful of altcoins are showing signs of strength in the short term. Let’s study the charts of the top five cryptocurrencies that may start a rally if they break above their respective overhead resistance levels.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin is back inside the $24,800 to $26,833 range, but a positive sign is that the bulls continue to buy the dips, as seen from the long tail on the Sep. 1 candlestick.
Although the downsloping moving averages indicate an advantage to bears, the gradually recovering relative strength index (RSI) shows that the bearish momentum may be weakening. The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the range at $26,833. If that happens, the BTC/USDT pair could retest the Aug. 29 intraday high of $28,142.
If bears want to seize control, they will have to sink and sustain the price below $24,800. This is going to be tough as the bulls are likely to defend the level with all their might. Still, if the bears prevail, the pair can plunge to $20,000. There is a minor support at $24,000, but it may not halt the decline.
The bears tried to pull the price below the immediate support at $25,300, but the bulls held their ground. Buyers will next try to strengthen their position by driving the price above the 20-exponential moving average. If they do that, it will indicate the start of a stronger recovery.
The 50-day simple moving average may act as a roadblock but it is expected to be crossed. The pair could then rally to the overhead resistance at $26,833.
Sellers are likely to have other plans. They will try to sink the price below $25,300 and challenge the vital support at $24,800.
Toncoin price analysis
Toncoin (TON) is in an uptrend, but the bears are trying to halt the up-move near the overhead resistance at $2.07.
Both moving averages have turned up, indicating an advantage to buyers, but the overbought levels on the RSI suggest that a minor correction or consolidation is possible. If the bulls do not give up much ground from the current level, the likelihood of a rally above $2.07 increases. The TON/USDT pair could then soar to $2.40.
Contrarily, a deeper correction may pull the price to the 20-day EMA ($1.61). A strong bounce off this level will suggest that the sentiment remains positive and traders are buying on dips. The trend will turn negative if the 20-day EMA support cracks.
The 4-hour chart shows that the bulls have been buying the pullback to the 20-EMA. Buyers will have to push the price above $1.98 to signal the resumption of the uptrend, but the bears may not give up easily.
Sellers will try to pull the price below the 20-EMA. If they manage to do that, the pair could start a deeper pullback toward the 50-SMA. A bounce off this level is likely to face selling at the 20-EMA, but if this roadblock is cleared, it will suggest that bulls are back in the driver’s seat.
Chainlink price analysis
Chainlink’s (LINK) has been trading inside a large range between $5.50 and $9.50 for the past several months. The bears pulled the price below the support of the range on June 10, but they could not sustain the lower levels.
The LINK/USDT pair dropped close to the support of the range on Aug. 17, but the bulls bought this dip, as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick. Buyers are trying to start a recovery but are facing resistance near the 20-day EMA ($6.23). Hence, this becomes an important level to look out for.
If buyers propel the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair can start its journey toward the 50-day SMA ($6.94). There is a minor resistance at $6.40, but it is likely to be crossed.
On the contrary, if the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. That could pull the price down to $5.50.
The moving averages have flattened out on the 4-hour chart and the RSI is just above the midpoint. This suggests that the selling pressure is reducing. Buyers will have to kick the price above $6.40 to start a new up-move. The pair could first rise to $6.87 and later to $7.07.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from $6.40, it will signal that bears are selling on rallies. That may keep the pair range-bound between $5.50 and $6.40 for a while longer.
Related: Shibarium hits 1M wallets amid meteoric growth, SHIB yet to catch up
Maker price analysis
Maker (MKR) has taken support near $1,000, but the bulls are facing solid resistance from the bears near the downtrend line.
The bulls repeatedly pushed the price above the downtrend line in the past few days but failed to sustain the higher levels. A minor positive is that buyers have not given up much ground, which suggests that traders are not dumping their positions in a hurry.
If the price turns up and closes above the downtrend line, it will suggest that buyers are back in the game. The positive momentum is likely to pick up after buyers kick the price above $1,227. The pair may then rally to $1,370.
Instead, if the price sustains below the 20-day EMA ($1,106), it will suggest that bears have the upper hand. The pair could then slump to the strong support at $980.
The 4-hour chart shows that the bulls pushed the price above the downtrend line but could not sustain the higher levels. This indicates that the bears have not given up and continue to sell on rallies.
The price has plunged to the 50-SMA, which is an important level to keep an eye on. If the price turns up from the current level, the bulls will again try to overcome the obstacle at $1,186 and then at $1,227. If this zone is scaled, the rally could reach $1,280.
Conversely, if the price sustains below the 50-SMA, it will open the gates for a potential decline to $1,040 and eventually to $980.
Tezos price analysis
Tezos (XTZ) has witnessed a tussle between the bulls and the bears near the strong support at $0.70. The failure of the bears to sink and sustain the price below this level indicates buying at lower levels.
The downsloping moving averages indicate an advantage to bears, but the rising RSI suggests that the bearish momentum is reducing. A close above the 20-day EMA ($0.71) will be the first sign of strength. That could pave the way for a rally to the downtrend line.
This level is likely to act as a formidable hurdle, but if the bulls overcome it, the XTZ/USDT pair may start a new up-move. The pair can first rally to $0.94 and subsequently to $1.04. This positive view will be invalidated if the price skids and sustains below $0.66.
The 4-hour chart shows that the price is consolidating between $0.70 and $0.66. The crisscrossing moving averages and the RSI near the midpoint indicate a balance between supply and demand.
If the price rises above $0.70, the advantage will tilt in favor of the bulls. The pair could then surge to the overhead resistance at $0.74. The advantage will tilt in favor of the bears if they sink the price below $0.68. That is likely to result in a retest of the support at $0.66. If this level crumbles, the pair may start the next leg of the downtrend to $0.61.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
bitcoin crypto btc xtz link crypto
Uncategorized
February Employment Situation
By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…
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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert
The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.
Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.
Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.
The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.
The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.
Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.
As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.
Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.
The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.
unemployment pandemic unemploymentUncategorized
Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes
Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.
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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.
The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.
From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250
Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.
1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.
2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.
Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.
3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too
Total employment data
4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels.
From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.
Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:
In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:
- Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
- High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
- Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
- Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.
recession unemployment covid-19 fed federal reserve mortgage rates recession recovery unemploymentUncategorized
Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month
Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month
Last month we though that the January…
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Last month we though that the January jobs report was the "most ridiculous in recent history" but, boy, were we wrong because this morning the Biden department of goalseeked propaganda (aka BLS) published the February jobs report, and holy crap was that something else. Even Goebbels would blush.
What happened? Let's take a closer look.
On the surface, it was (almost) another blockbuster jobs report, certainly one which nobody expected, or rather just one bank out of 76 expected. Starting at the top, the BLS reported that in February the US unexpectedly added 275K jobs, with just one research analyst (from Dai-Ichi Research) expecting a higher number.
Some context: after last month's record 4-sigma beat, today's print was "only" 3 sigma higher than estimates. Needless to say, two multiple sigma beats in a row used to only happen in the USSR... and now in the US, apparently.
Before we go any further, a quick note on what last month we said was "the most ridiculous jobs report in recent history": it appears the BLS read our comments and decided to stop beclowing itself. It did that by slashing last month's ridiculous print by over a third, and revising what was originally reported as a massive 353K beat to just 229K, a 124K revision, which was the biggest one-month negative revision in two years!
Of course, that does not mean that this month's jobs print won't be revised lower: it will be, and not just that month but every other month until the November election because that's the only tool left in the Biden admin's box: pretend the economic and jobs are strong, then revise them sharply lower the next month, something we pointed out first last summer and which has not failed to disappoint once.
In the past month the Biden department of goalseeking stuff higher before revising it lower, has revised the following data sharply lower:
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 30, 2023
- Jobs
- JOLTS
- New Home sales
- Housing Starts and Permits
- Industrial Production
- PCE and core PCE
To be fair, not every aspect of the jobs report was stellar (after all, the BLS had to give it some vague credibility). Take the unemployment rate, after flatlining between 3.4% and 3.8% for two years - and thus denying expectations from Sahm's Rule that a recession may have already started - in February the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to 3.9%, the highest since February 2022 (with Black unemployment spiking by 0.3% to 5.6%, an indicator which the Biden admin will quickly slam as widespread economic racism or something).
And then there were average hourly earnings, which after surging 0.6% MoM in January (since revised to 0.5%) and spooking markets that wage growth is so hot, the Fed will have no choice but to delay cuts, in February the number tumbled to just 0.1%, the lowest in two years...
... for one simple reason: last month's average wage surge had nothing to do with actual wages, and everything to do with the BLS estimate of hours worked (which is the denominator in the average wage calculation) which last month tumbled to just 34.1 (we were led to believe) the lowest since the covid pandemic...
... but has since been revised higher while the February print rose even more, to 34.3, hence why the latest average wage data was once again a product not of wages going up, but of how long Americans worked in any weekly period, in this case higher from 34.1 to 34.3, an increase which has a major impact on the average calculation.
While the above data points were examples of some latent weakness in the latest report, perhaps meant to give it a sheen of veracity, it was everything else in the report that was a problem starting with the BLS's latest choice of seasonal adjustments (after last month's wholesale revision), which have gone from merely laughable to full clownshow, as the following comparison between the monthly change in BLS and ADP payrolls shows. The trend is clear: the Biden admin numbers are now clearly rising even as the impartial ADP (which directly logs employment numbers at the company level and is far more accurate), shows an accelerating slowdown.
But it's more than just the Biden admin hanging its "success" on seasonal adjustments: when one digs deeper inside the jobs report, all sorts of ugly things emerge... such as the growing unprecedented divergence between the Establishment (payrolls) survey and much more accurate Household (actual employment) survey. To wit, while in January the BLS claims 275K payrolls were added, the Household survey found that the number of actually employed workers dropped for the third straight month (and 4 in the past 5), this time by 184K (from 161.152K to 160.968K).
This means that while the Payrolls series hits new all time highs every month since December 2020 (when according to the BLS the US had its last month of payrolls losses), the level of Employment has not budged in the past year. Worse, as shown in the chart below, such a gaping divergence has opened between the two series in the past 4 years, that the number of Employed workers would need to soar by 9 million (!) to catch up to what Payrolls claims is the employment situation.
There's more: shifting from a quantitative to a qualitative assessment, reveals just how ugly the composition of "new jobs" has been. Consider this: the BLS reports that in February 2024, the US had 132.9 million full-time jobs and 27.9 million part-time jobs. Well, that's great... until you look back one year and find that in February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs, or more than it does one year later! And yes, all the job growth since then has been in part-time jobs, which have increased by 921K since February 2023 (from 27.020 million to 27.941 million).
Here is a summary of the labor composition in the past year: all the new jobs have been part-time jobs!
But wait there's even more, because now that the primary season is over and we enter the heart of election season and political talking points will be thrown around left and right, especially in the context of the immigration crisis created intentionally by the Biden administration which is hoping to import millions of new Democratic voters (maybe the US can hold the presidential election in Honduras or Guatemala, after all it is their citizens that will be illegally casting the key votes in November), what we find is that in February, the number of native-born workers tumbled again, sliding by a massive 560K to just 129.807 million. Add to this the December data, and we get a near-record 2.4 million plunge in native-born workers in just the past 3 months (only the covid crash was worse)!
The offset? A record 1.2 million foreign-born (read immigrants, both legal and illegal but mostly illegal) workers added in February!
Said otherwise, not only has all job creation in the past 6 years has been exclusively for foreign-born workers...
... but there has been zero job-creation for native born workers since June 2018!
This is a huge issue - especially at a time of an illegal alien flood at the southwest border...
... and is about to become a huge political scandal, because once the inevitable recession finally hits, there will be millions of furious unemployed Americans demanding a more accurate explanation for what happened - i.e., the illegal immigration floodgates that were opened by the Biden admin.
Which is also why Biden's handlers will do everything in their power to insure there is no official recession before November... and why after the election is over, all economic hell will finally break loose. Until then, however, expect the jobs numbers to get even more ridiculous.
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