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Bitcoin Crashes & The S&P 500 Could Snapback To Its Trend

Ready for the S&P 500 to snapback to its trend? The S&P 500 has gone 213 days without touching its 200-day ema. The last stretch of time above its ema was in the 1950s.

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What To Watch Today

Economy

7:00 a.m. ET: MBA Mortgage Applicati

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3 years ago

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Ready for the S&P 500 to snapback to its trend? The S&P 500 has gone 213 days without touching its 200-day ema. The last stretch of time above its ema was in the 1950s.

What To Watch Today

Economy

  • 7:00 a.m. ET: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended September 3 (-2.4% during prior week)
  • 10:00 a.m. ET: JOLTS Job Openings, July (10.049 million expected, 10.073 million in June)
  • 2:00 p.m. ET: Federal Reserve’s Beige Book
  • 3:00 p.m. ET Consumer Credit, July ($25.000 billion in July, $37.690 billion in June)

Earnings

Post-market

  • GameStop (GME) is expected to report an adjusted loss of 67 cents on revenue of $1.123 billion
  • Lululemon (LULU) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $1.19 per share on revenue of $1.334 billion
  • RH (RH) is expected to report adjusted earnings of $6.49 per share on revenue of $974.8 million

Politics

  • President Biden, alongside U.S. Secretary of Labor Martin Walsh, will give a speech in honor of labor unions at the White House at 11:20 a.m. ET today. The president is also set to receive a briefing from his COVID-19 response team ahead of what’s being billed as an address to the nation on the pandemic tomorrow.
  • Congress remains in recess but the Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi could make some headlines today with her weekly press conference at 9:45 a.m. ET in Washington. She will then travel to Massachusetts to receive an honorary degree from Smith College in the evening.

Courtesy Of Yahoo

Price To Sales Rocketship

Kailash Capital had a great chart out recently showing the massive increase in the market capitalization of stocks with price-to-sales ratios greater than 20x.

“While we’ve seen an increase in the number of companies coming public via IPO’s / SPAC’s the number of investable companies hasn’t kept pace with the degree of inflows, resulting in re-ratings. Looking at the total market cap of stocks with P/S in excess of 20x we’ve surpassed the tech bubble high by nearly ~$1.0T.” – Kailash

If you don’t understand why a Price-To-Sales ratio greater than 20x is essential, let me remind you what Scott McNealy, then CEO of Sun Microsystems, told investors paying 10x Price-to-Sales for his company in a 1999 Bloomberg interview. 

“At 10-times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I must pay you 100% of revenues for 10-straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. It also assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company.

That assumes zero expenses, which is hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that expects you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10-years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate.

Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those underlying assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes.

What were you thinking?”

Ready for the S&P 500 to Snapback?

Michael Queenan (@mjqueenan) provides yet another reminder of the extreme deviation of the S&P 500 from its trend. Per his tweet:

“For anyone tracking, this is now the second-longest the $SPX has gone without touching the daily 200 EMA. April 1958 to June 1959 (289 bars) is the longest. We are currently up to 213 bars.”

Markets Continuous Climb

Bond Yields Opening Higher

This morning, bond yields are about 4-5 bps higher despite little market news or movement in S&P 500 futures. Some of the sell-off may be attributable to dealers setting up for the upcoming 10- and 30-year Treasury auctions. Tomorrow the U.S. Treasury will auction $38 billion 10-year notes. They will follow it up on Thursday with $24 billion in 30-year bonds. Since Wall Street banks and brokers are the prime distributors of the auctions, they tend to sell or short bonds in the day(s) preceding auctions and repurchase them at auction. Such can work to their advantage as bond prices often weaken before auctions allowing them to purchase bonds at lower prices than they sold them. While the pattern doesn’t always play out as described, some investors seeking to make some trading profits will mimic dealer behaviors.

Bitcoin Had A Rough Day

After El Salvador announced they would accept Bitcoin as legal tender. Immediately after the announcement, Bitcoin plunged below $50,000 as large positions got liquidated.

While Cathy Wood, of ARK Investments, was bullish on the move, many others weren’t. As noted by Javier David:

“If you’re an investor that embraces digital currency based on its decentralized appeal, is it really constructive to have a central government (especially one with the checkered past of El Salvador’s) act as a major market player?

Bitcoin’s inexplicable reversal also underscored an element that Barry Bannister, Stifel’s chief equity strategist, emphasized on Tuesday. Speaking to Yahoo Finance, he called the digital currency a ‘speculative asset’ that’s light years from being a safe-haven like gold (GC=F), the U.S. dollar or the Japanese yen (JPY).

“Bitcoin is an asset that moves with global liquidity,” and waxes and wanes with global money supply growth, which has been declining since March, Bannister explained. He enumerated reasons like a Federal Reserve that may start tapering stimulus, a tightening of monetary policy by China, and a surge in COVID-19 infections that will feed flight-to-safety bids for safe-havens.”

The volatile swings in Bitcoin highlight one of the biggest problems with Bitcoin becoming legal tender for larger nations. In order to conduct trade, the underlying currency used for those transactions can’t swing 10-15% in hours.

Coinbase had a rough day also.

Rising Compensation Vs. GDP

The following chart looks at compensation a little differently than just wages. It is Employee Compensation as a percentage of Net National Income LESS Rental Incomes. What is interesting is the near inverse relationship between this measure and GDP. Not surprisingly, the inflation of compensation must eventually get passed along to consumers which ultimately weakens economic growth.

The recent spike in wages and compensation has yet to show up in the Fed’s measures, but as shown above, wage growth is confirming the weakness in economic growth as of late. Therefore, if the Fed proceeds with their “taper plans,” they could find themselves on the wrong side of monetary policy very quickly.

Unloved Bonds

According to Bank of America, with $3.2 trillion of assets held by private clients, allocations to bonds are at an all-time low of 17.7%. At the same time, stock holdings are at an all-time high of 65.2%. Thus, assuming the data represents most individual accounts throughout the banking /brokerage system, which seems plausible, there is a lot of fodder for a bond rally at the expense of stock prices.

Week Ahead

This holiday-shortened week will be light on economic data. On the heels of the employment report, the BLS JOLTs report on Wednesday will tell us if the record number of job openings continues to increase to new records or they are starting to get filled. With over 7 million people losing benefits, we suspect the demand for jobs will rise. Of importance, on Friday the BLS will release Producer Prices (PPI). We believe the market and many Fed members are increasingly worried inflationary pressures are overstaying their “transitory” welcome. PPI will also shed light on rising input costs for manufacturers. CPI will be released a week from today.

The post Bitcoin Crashes & The S&P 500 Could Snapback To Its Trend appeared first on RIA.

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There Goes The Fed’s Inflation Target: Goldman Sees Terminal Rate 100bps Higher At 3.5%

There Goes The Fed’s Inflation Target: Goldman Sees Terminal Rate 100bps Higher At 3.5%

Two years ago, we first said that it’s only a matter…

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2 hours ago

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March 19, 2024

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There Goes The Fed's Inflation Target: Goldman Sees Terminal Rate 100bps Higher At 3.5%

Two years ago, we first said that it's only a matter of time before the Fed admits it is unable to rsolve the so-called "last mile" of inflation and that as a result, the old inflation target of 2% is no longer viable.

Then one year ago, we correctly said that while everyone was paying attention elsewhere, the inflation target had already been hiked to 2.8%... on the way to even more increases.

And while the Fed still pretends it can one day lower inflation to 2% even as it prepares to cut rates as soon as June, moments ago Goldman published a note from its economics team which had to balls to finally call a spade a spade, and concluded that - as party of the Fed's next big debate, i.e., rethinking the Neutral rate - both the neutral and terminal rate, a polite euphemism for the inflation target, are much higher than conventional wisdom believes, and that as a result Goldman is "penciling in a terminal rate of 3.25-3.5% this cycle, 100bp above the peak reached last cycle."

There is more in the full Goldman note, but below we excerpt the key fragments:

We argued last cycle that the long-run neutral rate was not as low as widely thought, perhaps closer to 3-3.5% in nominal terms than to 2-2.5%. We have also argued this cycle that the short-run neutral rate could be higher still because the fiscal deficit is much larger than usual—in fact, estimates of the elasticity of the neutral rate to the deficit suggest that the wider deficit might boost the short-term neutral rate by 1-1.5%. Fed economists have also offered another reason why the short-term neutral rate might be elevated, namely that broad financial conditions have not tightened commensurately with the rise in the funds rate, limiting transmission to the economy.

Over the coming year, Fed officials are likely to debate whether the neutral rate is still as low as they assumed last cycle and as the dot plot implies....

...Translation: raising the neutral rate estimate is also the first step to admitting that the traditional 2% inflation target is higher than previously expected. And once the Fed officially crosses that particular Rubicon, all bets are off.

... Their thinking is likely to be influenced by distant forward market rates, which have risen 1-2pp since the pre-pandemic years to about 4%; by model-based estimates of neutral, whose earlier real-time values have been revised up by roughly 0.5pp on average to about 3.5% nominal and whose latest values are little changed; and by their perception of how well the economy is performing at the current level of the funds rate.

The bank's conclusion:

We expect Fed officials to raise their estimates of neutral over time both by raising their long-run neutral rate dots somewhat and by concluding that short-run neutral is currently higher than long-run neutral. While we are fairly confident that Fed officials will not be comfortable leaving the funds rate above 5% indefinitely once inflation approaches 2% and that they will not go all the way back to 2.5% purely in the name of normalization, we are quite uncertain about where in between they will ultimately land.

Because the economy is not sensitive enough to small changes in the funds rate to make it glaringly obvious when neutral has been reached, the terminal or equilibrium rate where the FOMC decides to leave the funds rate is partly a matter of the true neutral rate and partly a matter of the perceived neutral rate. For now, we are penciling in a terminal rate of 3.25-3.5% this cycle, 100bps above the peak reached last cycle. This reflects both our view that neutral is higher than Fed officials think and our expectation that their thinking will evolve.

Not that this should come as a surprise: as a reminder, with the US now $35.5 trillion in debt and rising by $1 trillion every 100 days, we are fast approaching the Minsky Moment, which means the US has just a handful of options left: losing the reserve currency status, QEing the deficit and every new dollar in debt, or - the only viable alternative - inflating it all away. The only question we had before is when do "serious" economists make the same admission.

They now have.

And while we have discussed the staggering consequences of raising the inflation target by just 1% from 2% to 3% on everything from markets, to economic growth (instead of doubling every 35 years at 2% inflation target, prices would double every 23 years at 3%), and social cohesion, we will soon rerun the analysis again as the implications are profound. For now all you need to know is that with the US about to implicitly hit the overdrive of dollar devaluation, anything that is non-fiat will be much more preferable over fiat alternatives.

Much more in the full Goldman note available to pro subs in the usual place.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/19/2024 - 15:45

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Household Net Interest Income Falls As Rates Spike

A Bloomberg article from this morning offered an excellent array of charts detailing the shifts in interest payment flows amid rising rates. The historical…

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3 hours ago

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March 19, 2024

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A Bloomberg article from this morning offered an excellent array of charts detailing the shifts in interest payment flows amid rising rates. The historical anomaly was both surprising and contradicted our priors.

10 Key Points:

  1. Historical Anomaly: This is the first time in the last fifty years that a Federal Reserve rate hike cycle has led to a significant drop in household net interest income.
  2. Interest Expense Increase: Since the Fed began raising rates in March 2022, Americans’ annual interest expenses on debts like mortgages and credit cards have surged by nearly $420 billion.
  3. Interest Income Lag: The increase in interest income during the same period was only about $280 billion, resulting in a net decline in household interest income, a departure from past trends.
  4. Consumer Debt Influence: The recent rate hikes impacted household finances more because of a higher proportion of consumer credit, which adjusts more quickly to rate changes, increasing interest costs.
  5. Banks and Savers: Banks have been slow to pass on higher interest rates to depositors, and the prolonged period of low rates before 2022 may have discouraged savers from actively seeking better returns.
  6. Shift in Wealth: There’s been a shift from interest-bearing assets to stocks, with dividends surpassing interest payments as a source of unearned income during the pandemic.
  7. Distributional Discrepancy: Higher interest rates benefit wealthier individuals who own interest-earning assets, whereas lower-income earners face the brunt of increased debt servicing costs, exacerbating economic inequality.
  8. Job Market Impact: Typically, Fed rate hikes affect households through the job market, as businesses cut costs, potentially leading to layoffs or wage suppression, though this hasn’t occurred yet in the current cycle.
  9. Economic Impact: The distribution of interest income and debt servicing means that rate increases transfer money from those more likely to spend (and thus stimulate the economy) to those less likely to increase consumption, potentially dampening economic activity.
  10. No Immediate Relief: Expectations for the Fed to reduce rates have diminished, indicating that high-interest expenses for households may persist.

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One more airline cracks down on lounge crowding in a way you won’t like

Qantas Airways is increasing the price of accessing its network of lounges by as much as 17%.

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3 hours ago

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March 19, 2024

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Over the last two years, multiple airlines have dealt with crowding in their lounges. While they are designed as a luxury experience for a small subset of travelers, high numbers of people taking a trip post-pandemic as well as the different ways they are able to gain access through status or certain credit cards made it difficult for some airlines to keep up with keeping foods stocked, common areas clean and having enough staff to serve bar drinks at the rate that customers expect them.

In the fall of 2023, Delta Air Lines  (DAL)  caught serious traveler outcry after announcing that it was cracking down on crowding by raising how much one needs to spend for lounge access and limiting the number of times one can enter those lounges.

Related: Competitors pushed Delta to backtrack on its lounge and loyalty program changes

Some airlines saw the outcry with Delta as their chance to reassure customers that they would not raise their fees while others waited for the storm to pass to quietly implement their own increases.

A photograph captures a Qantas Airways lounge in Sydney, Australia.

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This is how much more you'll have to pay for Qantas lounge access

Australia's flagship carrier Qantas Airways  (QUBSF)  is the latest airline to announce that it would raise the cost accessing the 24 lounges across the country as well as the 600 international lounges available at airports across the world through partner airlines.

More Travel:

Unlike other airlines which grant access primarily after reaching frequent flyer status, Qantas also sells it through a membership — starting from April 18, 2024, prices will rise from $600 Australian dollars ($392 USD)  to $699 AUD ($456 USD) for one year, $1,100 ($718 USD) to $1,299 ($848 USD) for two years and $2,000 AUD ($1,304) to lock in the rate for four years.

Those signing up for lounge access for the first time also currently pay a joining fee of $99 AUD ($65 USD) that will rise to $129 AUD ($85 USD).

The airline also allows customers to purchase their membership with Qantas Points they collect through frequent travel; the membership fees are also being raised by the equivalent amount in points in what adds up to as much as 17% — from 308,000 to 399,900 to lock in access for four years.

Airline says hikes will 'cover cost increases passed on from suppliers'

"This is the first time the Qantas Club membership fees have increased in seven years and will help cover cost increases passed on from a range of suppliers over that time," a Qantas spokesperson confirmed to Simple Flying. "This follows a reduction in the membership fees for several years during the pandemic."

The spokesperson said the gains from the increases will go both towards making up for inflation-related costs and keeping existing lounges looking modern by updating features like furniture and décor.

While the price increases also do not apply for those who earned lounge access through frequent flyer status or change what it takes to earn that status, Qantas is also introducing even steeper increases for those renewing a membership or adding additional features such as spouse and partner memberships.

In some cases, the cost of these features will nearly double from what members are paying now.

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