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Bitcoin and $BITO Mania Grip the Stock Market

$BITO, the first Bitcoin ETF was issued Tuesday morning. The ETF provides retail investors their first true access to Bitcoin without having to open up a crypto wallet account. BITO tracks bitcoin futures and is expected to track the cryptocurrency much..

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$BITO, the first Bitcoin ETF was issued Tuesday morning. The ETF provides retail investors their first true access to Bitcoin without having to open up a crypto wallet account. BITO tracks bitcoin futures and is expected to track the cryptocurrency much closer than the Grayscale Trust (GBTC).

Stocks rallied alongside BITO and posted a fifth straight green day. The index is now well established above its 50dma and aiming for new record highs. However, not surprisingly, the market surge has quickly taken the index back to overbought conditions short-term. Such suggests we could see some consolidation, or a potential retest of the 50-dma, before attempting all-time highs.

What To Watch Today

Economy

  • 7:00 a.m. ET: MBA mortgage applications, week ended Oct. 15 (0.2% during prior week)
  • 2:00 p.m. ET: Federal Reserve releases Beige Book

Earnings

Pre-market

  • 6:00 a.m. ET: Anthem (ANTM) to report adjusted earnings of $6.37 per share on revenue of $35.39 billion
  • 6:25 a.m. ET: Citizens Financial Group (CFG) to report adjusted earnings of $1.17 per share on revenue of $1.64 billion
  • 7:00 a.m. ET: Biogen (BIIB) to report adjusted earnings of $4.10 per share on revenue of $2.68 billion
  • 7:00 a.m. ET: Nasdaq (NDAQ) to report adjusted earnings of $1.73 per share on. revenue of $830.82 million
  • 7:00 a.m. ET: Baker Hughes (BKR) to report adjusted earnings of 21 cents per share on revenue of $5.34 billion
  • 7:15 a.m. ET: Abbott Laboratories (ABT) to report adjusted earnings of 94 cents per share on revenue of $9.54 billion
  • 7:30 a.m. ET: Verizon Communications (VZ) to report adjusted earnings of $1.36 per. share on revenue of $33.24 billion 

Post-market

  • 4:00 p.m. ET: Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) to report adjusted losses of 23 cents per share on revenue of $1.16 billion
  • 4:05 p.m. ET: Tesla (TSLA) to report adjusted earnings of $1.67 per share on revenue of $13.91 billion
  • 4:05 p.m. ET: Kinder Morgan (KMI) to report adjusted earnings of 22 cents per share on revenue of $3.2 billion
  • 4:10 p.m. ET: IBM (IBM) to report adjusted earnings of $2.53 per share on revenue of $17.83 billion
  • 4:15 p.m. ET: Equifax (EFX) to report adjusted earnings of $1.71 per share on revenue of $1.18 billion

Courtesy of Yahoo!

20-Strongest Relative Strength Candidates

Using RIAPRO’s Active Trade screen, I ran a screen on the 20-strongest relative strength stocks in the S&P 500 to look for some portfolio candidates.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Earnings

JNJ reported third-quarter earnings today before the open. GAAP EPS of $1.37 missed the consensus estimate of $2.17. However, non-GAAP EPS of $2.60 beat expectations of $2.35. Revenue of $23.3B (+10.7% YoY) missed the consensus of $23.7B. According to the CFO, the revenue miss was just a matter of the timing of shipments in the COVID vaccine and medical devices businesses. That revenue should be made up for in Q4 results.

JNJ increased guidance for FY21 revenue at the low end to a range of $92.8B-$93.3B from $92.5B-$93.3B, but guidance remains below the consensus estimate of $93.97B. Guidance was also boosted for FY21 adjusted EPS to $9.77-$9.82 from $9.50-$9.60 previously. This is well above the consensus estimate of $9.64. The stock is trading 2.6% higher on the results. We hold a 1.5% position in the Equity Model.

Proctor & Gamble (PG) Earnings

PG reported third-quarter earnings this morning before the open. GAAP EPS came in slightly above expectations, at $1.61 (-1% YoY) versus the consensus of $1.59. Revenue of $20.3B (+5.3% YoY) also beat expectations of $19.9B. Organic sales growth of +4% YoY was driven by increased volume (+2%), increased pricing (+1%), and a positive sales mix (+1%). Gross margin, however, decreased by 3.7% YoY due to increased commodity and transportation costs as well as a less profitable sales mix.

PG is planning to raise prices on certain beauty, oral care, and grooming products to offset increasing costs. According to the Wall Street Journal, “‘We do not anticipate any easing of costs,’ P&G Finance Chief Andre Schulten said in an interview. ‘We continue to see increases week after week, though at a slower pace’”. The article continues, “Despite the higher expenses, P&G maintained its sales and profit outlooks for the year, saying increased revenue and cost reductions will enable the company to stay on track”. The stock is trading roughly 2% lower this morning in light of the margin concerns. We hold a 2% position in the Equity Model.

For more on how cost pressures are affecting PG and many other companies, check out this article from the Washington Post.

Stocks to Watch as the Earnings Parade Continues

The Crash of 1987

“Despite varying perceptions, there were clear fundamental and technical warnings preceding the crash that were detected by a few investors. For the rest, the market euphoria raging at the time blinded them to what in hindsight seemed obvious.”

The quote comes from an article we wrote on the stock market crash of 1987. Today, being the 34th anniversary of the crash of 1987, we revisit some important lessons from that era.  Read The Article.

Will Higher Oil Prices Become The Norm?

The Wall Street Journal ran an article discussing a growing investment deficiency into traditional and renewable energy sources. As a result oil prices may stay high until the industry closes the gap.

Per the article:

“Global oil and gas exploration spending, excluding shale, averaged about $100 billion a year from 2010 to 2015, but dropped to an average of around $50 billion in the years that followed after a crash in crude prices, according to Rystad Energy. Total global oil and gas investment this year will be down about 26% from pre-pandemic levels to $356 billion, the IEA said Wednesday.”

Green investments are not growing quickly enough to offset reduced CAPEX in the energy industry. Per the article:

To meet global energy demand, as well as climate aspirations, investments in clean energy would need to grow from around $1.1 trillion this year to $3.4 trillion a year until 2030, the Paris-based agency found. Investment would advance technology, transmission, and storage, among other things.

The bottom line: “The world isn’t investing enough to meet its future energy needs, and uncertainties over policies and demand trajectories create a strong risk of a volatile period ahead for energy markets,” the IEA report said.

Labor Market

Over the last six months, the Fed has been dragging its feet and delaying the inevitable tapering of QE due to perceived weakness in the labor market. The graph below shows the unemployment rate less those labeled “quitters” is near 20-year lows. Quitters are those that left their jobs voluntarily and, in theory, are in search of better or higher-paying jobs. The current quit rate at 2.9% is the highest in its 20-year history. A high quit rate is a signal of labor market strength. Between 5.4% inflation and the graph below, is it any wonder the market is starting to think the Fed is behind the eight ball in tightening?

The post Bitcoin and $BITO Mania Grip the Stock Market appeared first on RIA.

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There Goes The Fed’s Inflation Target: Goldman Sees Terminal Rate 100bps Higher At 3.5%

There Goes The Fed’s Inflation Target: Goldman Sees Terminal Rate 100bps Higher At 3.5%

Two years ago, we first said that it’s only a matter…

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March 19, 2024

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There Goes The Fed's Inflation Target: Goldman Sees Terminal Rate 100bps Higher At 3.5%

Two years ago, we first said that it's only a matter of time before the Fed admits it is unable to rsolve the so-called "last mile" of inflation and that as a result, the old inflation target of 2% is no longer viable.

Then one year ago, we correctly said that while everyone was paying attention elsewhere, the inflation target had already been hiked to 2.8%... on the way to even more increases.

And while the Fed still pretends it can one day lower inflation to 2% even as it prepares to cut rates as soon as June, moments ago Goldman published a note from its economics team which had to balls to finally call a spade a spade, and concluded that - as party of the Fed's next big debate, i.e., rethinking the Neutral rate - both the neutral and terminal rate, a polite euphemism for the inflation target, are much higher than conventional wisdom believes, and that as a result Goldman is "penciling in a terminal rate of 3.25-3.5% this cycle, 100bp above the peak reached last cycle."

There is more in the full Goldman note, but below we excerpt the key fragments:

We argued last cycle that the long-run neutral rate was not as low as widely thought, perhaps closer to 3-3.5% in nominal terms than to 2-2.5%. We have also argued this cycle that the short-run neutral rate could be higher still because the fiscal deficit is much larger than usual—in fact, estimates of the elasticity of the neutral rate to the deficit suggest that the wider deficit might boost the short-term neutral rate by 1-1.5%. Fed economists have also offered another reason why the short-term neutral rate might be elevated, namely that broad financial conditions have not tightened commensurately with the rise in the funds rate, limiting transmission to the economy.

Over the coming year, Fed officials are likely to debate whether the neutral rate is still as low as they assumed last cycle and as the dot plot implies....

...Translation: raising the neutral rate estimate is also the first step to admitting that the traditional 2% inflation target is higher than previously expected. And once the Fed officially crosses that particular Rubicon, all bets are off.

... Their thinking is likely to be influenced by distant forward market rates, which have risen 1-2pp since the pre-pandemic years to about 4%; by model-based estimates of neutral, whose earlier real-time values have been revised up by roughly 0.5pp on average to about 3.5% nominal and whose latest values are little changed; and by their perception of how well the economy is performing at the current level of the funds rate.

The bank's conclusion:

We expect Fed officials to raise their estimates of neutral over time both by raising their long-run neutral rate dots somewhat and by concluding that short-run neutral is currently higher than long-run neutral. While we are fairly confident that Fed officials will not be comfortable leaving the funds rate above 5% indefinitely once inflation approaches 2% and that they will not go all the way back to 2.5% purely in the name of normalization, we are quite uncertain about where in between they will ultimately land.

Because the economy is not sensitive enough to small changes in the funds rate to make it glaringly obvious when neutral has been reached, the terminal or equilibrium rate where the FOMC decides to leave the funds rate is partly a matter of the true neutral rate and partly a matter of the perceived neutral rate. For now, we are penciling in a terminal rate of 3.25-3.5% this cycle, 100bps above the peak reached last cycle. This reflects both our view that neutral is higher than Fed officials think and our expectation that their thinking will evolve.

Not that this should come as a surprise: as a reminder, with the US now $35.5 trillion in debt and rising by $1 trillion every 100 days, we are fast approaching the Minsky Moment, which means the US has just a handful of options left: losing the reserve currency status, QEing the deficit and every new dollar in debt, or - the only viable alternative - inflating it all away. The only question we had before is when do "serious" economists make the same admission.

They now have.

And while we have discussed the staggering consequences of raising the inflation target by just 1% from 2% to 3% on everything from markets, to economic growth (instead of doubling every 35 years at 2% inflation target, prices would double every 23 years at 3%), and social cohesion, we will soon rerun the analysis again as the implications are profound. For now all you need to know is that with the US about to implicitly hit the overdrive of dollar devaluation, anything that is non-fiat will be much more preferable over fiat alternatives.

Much more in the full Goldman note available to pro subs in the usual place.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/19/2024 - 15:45

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Household Net Interest Income Falls As Rates Spike

A Bloomberg article from this morning offered an excellent array of charts detailing the shifts in interest payment flows amid rising rates. The historical…

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March 19, 2024

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A Bloomberg article from this morning offered an excellent array of charts detailing the shifts in interest payment flows amid rising rates. The historical anomaly was both surprising and contradicted our priors.

10 Key Points:

  1. Historical Anomaly: This is the first time in the last fifty years that a Federal Reserve rate hike cycle has led to a significant drop in household net interest income.
  2. Interest Expense Increase: Since the Fed began raising rates in March 2022, Americans’ annual interest expenses on debts like mortgages and credit cards have surged by nearly $420 billion.
  3. Interest Income Lag: The increase in interest income during the same period was only about $280 billion, resulting in a net decline in household interest income, a departure from past trends.
  4. Consumer Debt Influence: The recent rate hikes impacted household finances more because of a higher proportion of consumer credit, which adjusts more quickly to rate changes, increasing interest costs.
  5. Banks and Savers: Banks have been slow to pass on higher interest rates to depositors, and the prolonged period of low rates before 2022 may have discouraged savers from actively seeking better returns.
  6. Shift in Wealth: There’s been a shift from interest-bearing assets to stocks, with dividends surpassing interest payments as a source of unearned income during the pandemic.
  7. Distributional Discrepancy: Higher interest rates benefit wealthier individuals who own interest-earning assets, whereas lower-income earners face the brunt of increased debt servicing costs, exacerbating economic inequality.
  8. Job Market Impact: Typically, Fed rate hikes affect households through the job market, as businesses cut costs, potentially leading to layoffs or wage suppression, though this hasn’t occurred yet in the current cycle.
  9. Economic Impact: The distribution of interest income and debt servicing means that rate increases transfer money from those more likely to spend (and thus stimulate the economy) to those less likely to increase consumption, potentially dampening economic activity.
  10. No Immediate Relief: Expectations for the Fed to reduce rates have diminished, indicating that high-interest expenses for households may persist.

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One more airline cracks down on lounge crowding in a way you won’t like

Qantas Airways is increasing the price of accessing its network of lounges by as much as 17%.

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March 19, 2024

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Over the last two years, multiple airlines have dealt with crowding in their lounges. While they are designed as a luxury experience for a small subset of travelers, high numbers of people taking a trip post-pandemic as well as the different ways they are able to gain access through status or certain credit cards made it difficult for some airlines to keep up with keeping foods stocked, common areas clean and having enough staff to serve bar drinks at the rate that customers expect them.

In the fall of 2023, Delta Air Lines  (DAL)  caught serious traveler outcry after announcing that it was cracking down on crowding by raising how much one needs to spend for lounge access and limiting the number of times one can enter those lounges.

Related: Competitors pushed Delta to backtrack on its lounge and loyalty program changes

Some airlines saw the outcry with Delta as their chance to reassure customers that they would not raise their fees while others waited for the storm to pass to quietly implement their own increases.

A photograph captures a Qantas Airways lounge in Sydney, Australia.

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This is how much more you'll have to pay for Qantas lounge access

Australia's flagship carrier Qantas Airways  (QUBSF)  is the latest airline to announce that it would raise the cost accessing the 24 lounges across the country as well as the 600 international lounges available at airports across the world through partner airlines.

More Travel:

Unlike other airlines which grant access primarily after reaching frequent flyer status, Qantas also sells it through a membership — starting from April 18, 2024, prices will rise from $600 Australian dollars ($392 USD)  to $699 AUD ($456 USD) for one year, $1,100 ($718 USD) to $1,299 ($848 USD) for two years and $2,000 AUD ($1,304) to lock in the rate for four years.

Those signing up for lounge access for the first time also currently pay a joining fee of $99 AUD ($65 USD) that will rise to $129 AUD ($85 USD).

The airline also allows customers to purchase their membership with Qantas Points they collect through frequent travel; the membership fees are also being raised by the equivalent amount in points in what adds up to as much as 17% — from 308,000 to 399,900 to lock in access for four years.

Airline says hikes will 'cover cost increases passed on from suppliers'

"This is the first time the Qantas Club membership fees have increased in seven years and will help cover cost increases passed on from a range of suppliers over that time," a Qantas spokesperson confirmed to Simple Flying. "This follows a reduction in the membership fees for several years during the pandemic."

The spokesperson said the gains from the increases will go both towards making up for inflation-related costs and keeping existing lounges looking modern by updating features like furniture and décor.

While the price increases also do not apply for those who earned lounge access through frequent flyer status or change what it takes to earn that status, Qantas is also introducing even steeper increases for those renewing a membership or adding additional features such as spouse and partner memberships.

In some cases, the cost of these features will nearly double from what members are paying now.

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