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Bitcoin Amsterdam 2022: Optimistic outlook for BTC amid shaky economic times

Bitcoin Amsterdam 2022 paints a positive picture for continued BTC use and adoption amid uncertain economic times.
It may not have…

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1 year ago

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Bitcoin Amsterdam 2022 paints a positive picture for continued BTC use and adoption amid uncertain economic times.

It may not have been tulip season in the Netherlands, but there was a palpable buzz at the picturesque Westerpark, which played host to the Bitcoin Amsterdam 2022 Conference.

Prominent speakers from all corners of the Bitcoin (BTC) ecosystem drew in a healthy number of attendees across the two days of the program, exploring wide-ranging topics amid the challenges and successes as the space nears its fourteenth year of existence.

With global economic woes continuing across conventional markets and global monetary inflation concerns mounting, Bitcoin’s role as a potential hedge was a major topic of discussion, kicking things off inside the Westerunie dome on Day 1 at the conference.

Bitcoin as an inflation hedge

Former hedge fund manager Greg Foss and Prince Philip of Serbia Gave provided some interesting food for thought, highlighting the potential for Bitcoin as a safe haven asset given its engineered scarcity when compared to a debt-driven economic system that has been fighting to combat inflation.

Cointelegraph spoke to Foss in Amsterdam, who highlighted his view that Bitcoin will play a major role in tackling monetary inflation. Having cut his teeth working for the Royal Bank of Canada and spending nearly 30 years trading credit, Foss’s introduction to Bitcoin fundamentally changed his outlook on the current economic challenges facing the world:

“I found Bitcoin in 2016. I've been researching it ever since, and in my opinion, it is the most important technological and financial solution to our looming debt crisis that we're seeing coming true in real-time right now. What's happening in the U.K. is extraordinary stuff. I haven't been this nervous about the financial system since 2009.”

Prince Philip used an anecdotal example of soaring inflation in Serbia both in the past and in 2022 as cause for concern for locals despite government assurances that inflation numbers would return to single digits in 2023:

“This is how Bitcoin is really going to help people in Serbia and around the world. It’s key that we educate people to understand the scarcity of Bitcoin and how it's going to solve the inflation issue we’re all experiencing right now.”

Former European Parliament member Nigel Farage also weighed in on the issue from a British context in a conversation with Cointelegraph. While admitting he’d first heard of the concept of Bitcoin back in 2012, Farage only recently pondered its importance when he began to question the nature of fiat currencies in modern times.

Farage highlighted a break away from the gold standard in various countries many decades ago as a primary cause of inflationary environments which often take years to remedy. Bitcoin, in his view, could become a more attractive means of transacting and combatting inflation in Europe in the near term future:

“There's gonna be a very, very big change here over the next two or three years, and it will become a trusted means of exchange. And if I look now doing banking transactions, they're inefficient, they're costly, and often quite slow. So [Bitcoin] becomes more and more attractive.”

While there was plenty of optimism for Bitcoin being a hedge in an individual's investment portfolio by a number of speakers, Foss highlighted the importance of having a clear strategy in place in terms of a percentage allocation to BTC in a portfolio.

Energy issues in Europe

Energy issues were another hot topic of debate, given that Europe is experiencing an energy crisis of sorts, which has been exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Andy Long, CEO of mining firm White Rock Management, summed up the status of affairs on the continent.

“Really, the only affordable resources for energy for mining in Europe are in locations where the energy is stranded. When you transport energy, you have losses in the grid, but you also need enough capacity in the distribution network.”

Long also noted that gas pipelines being restricted and nuclear power plants being powered down were adding further restraints, while renewable generation was not keeping pace. This means that mining operators are having difficulty finding locations with low-cost, stable power.

Jelmer ten Wold, CEO of Greentech Technologies AG, highlighted the fact that the European Union is investing €300 billion ($292.38 billin renewable energy production in the coming years while plans for consumption are somewhat lacking.

“It will result in a lot more need and demand for stable load and load-balancing applications. The moment that the heat-user vertically integrates with a mining farm, producing heat and BTC at the same time, there is no way that an electronic boiler will ever be cheaper.”

Long also recounted how his firm's energy infrastructure investments in Sweden had led to a cascading effect of infrastructure development and further investment into mining ventures by other companies. This provides an example of how Bitcoin mining can be an incentivizing force for further electricity utility development.

Considering sidechains

Paul Sztorc, independent Bitcoiner and inventor of BIP 300 and renowned cryptographer, Hashcash inventor and Blockstream CEO Adam Back pondered othe future use of sidechains to improve the Bitcoin network in the future.

OpCodes, Simplicity and zero-knowledge SNARKS were put forward by both speakers during their panel on the subject. Back suggested that opcodes, which push data or perform functions within a pubkey script or signature script, could be the easiest to implement in the near term future:

“I think that the opcodes are probably the fastest path. I think there is new energy in Bitcoin layer twos with Fedimint and Statechains, there are multiple companies working on those things. They're also interested in novel new opcodes so it's a good time to have that conversation.”

Sztorc, who created BIP 300, which proposes compressing three to six months of transaction data into a fixed 32-bytes, also agreed that sidechains could help scale Bitcoin’s network through the implementation of his BIP and other sidechain proposals:

“The idea that I have for BIP 300 and just the sidechain idea more generally could have enormous impact. Not only does it do extensibility but it can be used to achieve a huge scale very quickly.”

Upgrades or improvements to Bitcoin's protocol have always been a contentious issue, but the two highly respected cryptographers certainly provided measured takes on how the protocol can continue to evolve in a multi-cryptocurrency and blockchain ecosystem.

Julian Assange’s Bitcoin story

Renowned activist and Wikileaks founder Julian Assange, who is currently incarcerated at Belmarsh prison in London, was represented by his wife Stella, who gave a rousing address in Amsterdam that unpacked Bitcoin’s role in fighting censorship around the world:

“Bitcoin and its technology are trying to fight censorship in a similar way to how Wikileaks has fought censorship using cryptography. Julian started Wikileaks with incredible innovation, he is a pioneer who has changed the way journalism is done.”

Assange’s work using cryptography was primarily focused on helping journalists and newsrooms relook at how they protect their sources and information in the internet age. Once Wikileaks began publishing information, the media company saw itself shut off from major payment networks.

“That led to Wikileaks becoming an early adopter of Bitcoin. It’s important to understand the attacks on Wikileaks and the different attacks. The extra-territorial banking blockades, the political and legal attacks.”

General conversations with speakers and attendees painted a picture of optimism about Bitcoin’s ongoing role during increasingly uncertain times around the world. As the COVI-19 pandemic begins to fade away, inflationary concerns and the ever-present threat of an escalating situation in Ukraine have also seen energy costs soar in Europe.

Despite a bleak outlook, Bitcoin continues to attract long-time users and prospective new entrants to explore the many avenues of the preeminent cryptocurrency. As one anonymous long-term Bitcoin holder told Cointelegraph, "I flew here from America because I like to keep tabs on what is going on in space."

The attendee was one of many who had traveled from various parts of the world to find out how the Bitcoin ecosystem continues to evolve in the ever-growing cryptocurrency ecosystem.

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COVID-19 Infection Increases Risk Of Autoimmune Diseases By Up To 30 Percent: Study

COVID-19 Infection Increases Risk Of Autoimmune Diseases By Up To 30 Percent: Study

Authored by George Citroner via The Epoch Times (emphasis…

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3 hours ago

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March 20, 2024

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COVID-19 Infection Increases Risk Of Autoimmune Diseases By Up To 30 Percent: Study

Authored by George Citroner via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

(Juan Gaertner/Shutterstock)

Surviving COVID-19 may leave you at heightened risk of developing debilitating autoimmune diseases like rheumatoid arthritis and lupus for up to a year after infection, according to new research.

However, the study also found that vaccinating against the virus could significantly lower your chances of developing these potentially life-altering inflammatory conditions.

COVID-19 Infection Severity Plays a Big Role

The study, published in Annals of Internal Medicine, analyzed national claims data from over 10 million Korean and 12 million Japanese patients aged 20 and above diagnosed with COVID-19 between January 2020 and December 2021. The dominant strains were the wild-type virus and the delta variant during this period. COVID-19 patients were compared with matched flu patients and uninfected controls.

A little less than 4 percent of Korean participants had a history of COVID-19, and about 1 percent had a history of flu. Among Japanese participants, about 8 percent had been infected with COVID-19, and slightly less than 1 percent had been infected with flu.

Researchers found that COVID-19 patients had a 25 percent to 30 percent increased risk of new-onset autoimmune rheumatic diseases (AIRDs) 30 days after infection compared to uninfected individuals.

More severe COVID-19 was linked to a greater risk of new-onset, untreated, and treated AIRD, with both wild-type and delta variants associated with AIRD risk. The risk of new-onset AIRD seemed to decline over time and trailed off after the first year.

COVID-19 infection is associated with numerous autoimmune disorders, Dr. Jacob Teitelbaum, a board-certified internist specializing in the treatment of chronic fatigue syndrome and fibromyalgia, told The Epoch Times. “For example, there is a marked increase in hyperthyroidism after COVID caused by autoimmune attack on the thyroid glands,” he said. With the immune system already on high alert from the virus and “having trouble shutting down,” it is not surprising that the body’s own tissues will often become collateral damage, he noted.

“So this new study simply confirms what is already expected,” Dr. Teitelbaum added.

Vaccines Reduce Autoimmune Risk, but Only in Mild Cases

The findings also suggest that COVID-19 vaccination reduced the rate of AIRDs among patients who received one to two or more doses. This reduced risk was observed whether the vaccine used was mRNA-based or viral-vector type.

However, the reduced AIRD risk was only linked to patients with mild COVID-19 infection, not those with moderate or severe infection.

This is noteworthy, given growing evidence suggesting that COVID-19 vaccination could cause new-onset autoimmune diseases, including autoimmune glomerulonephritis, autoimmune hepatitis, and AIRDs.

AIRDs Increase Risk of Other Severe Conditions

AIRDs involve inflammation of the joints or connective tissue caused by attacks from the body’s immune system. These diseases can affect multiple organs and systems, leading to a wide range of symptoms and complications.

Some common AIRDs include:

  • Rheumatoid arthritis (RA): RA is a chronic autoimmune disorder that primarily affects joints, causing inflammation, pain, stiffness, and swelling. Untreated RA can lead to joint damage, deformities, disability, cardiovascular disease, osteoporosis, and lung problems over time.
  • Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE): SLE is a systemic autoimmune disease affecting various organs and tissues like skin, joints, kidneys, heart, lungs, and brain. Symptoms may include fatigue, joint pain, skin rashes, fever, and organ inflammation. Complications involve kidney damage, cardiovascular disease, neurological disorders, and increased infection susceptibility.
  • Ankylosing spondylitis (AS): AS primarily affects the spine and sacroiliac joints, causing inflammation and eventual vertebrae fusion, leading to spinal stiffness and limited mobility. It can also impact other joints, eyes, and organs. Complications may include spinal deformities, eye inflammation, and cardiovascular problems.
  • Psoriatic arthritis (PsA): PsA is an autoimmune condition with joint inflammation and skin lesions (psoriasis). In addition to joint pain, swelling, and stiffness, PsA can cause nail changes, eye inflammation, and tendon inflammation (enthesitis). Complications could include diabetes and high blood pressure.
  • Sjögren’s syndrome: Sjögren’s syndrome primarily affects moisture-producing glands, leading to dry eyes and mouth. However, it can also cause systemic issues like joint pain, fatigue, and organ involvement of the kidneys, lungs, or nervous system. It increases the risk of lymphoma and other autoimmune diseases.
  • Systemic sclerosis (scleroderma): Scleroderma is characterized by excessive collagen production, causing thickening and hardening of skin and connective tissues. It can also affect internal organs like the lungs, heart, kidneys, and gastrointestinal tract. Complications may include gastrointestinal bleeding, lung and heart problems, and bowel obstruction.

Inexpensive Treatment Available but Ignored: Expert

AIRDs significantly impact quality of life and require long-term management with medications, physical therapy, and lifestyle modifications. Regular monitoring and comprehensive care from health care professionals are essential for managing these conditions and minimizing health risks.

However, effective yet inexpensive treatments for these conditions are largely ignored, Dr. Teitelbaum said.

Low-dose naltrexone, costing less than $1 a day, has been shown to help chronic pain or autoimmune conditions, he added. Additionally, highly absorbed curcumin and Boswellia serrata, found in curcumin, were proven as effective as Celebrex in treating rheumatic arthritis in a head-to-head study, he noted.

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/20/2024 - 02:45

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Apartment permits are back to recession lows. Will mortgage rates follow?

If housing leads us into a recession in the near future, that means mortgage rates have stayed too high for too long.

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8 hours ago

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March 19, 2024

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In Tuesday’s report, the 5-unit housing permits data hit the same levels we saw in the COVID-19 recession. Once the backlog of apartments is finished, those jobs will be at risk, which traditionally means mortgage rates would fall soon after, as they have in previous economic cycles.

However, this is happening while single-family permits are still rising as the rate of builder buy-downs and the backlog of single-family homes push single-family permits and starts higher. It is a tale of two markets — something I brought up on CNBC earlier this year to explain why this trend matters with housing starts data because the two marketplaces are heading in opposite directions.

The question is: Will the uptick in single-family permits keep mortgage rates higher than usual? As long as jobless claims stay low, the falling 5-unit apartment permit data might not lead to lower mortgage rates as it has in previous cycles.

From Census: Building Permits: Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,518,000. This is 1.9 percent above the revised January rate of 1,489,000 and 2.4 percent above the February 2023 rate of 1,482,000.

When people say housing leads us in and out of a recession, it is a valid premise and that is why people carefully track housing permits. However, this housing cycle has been unique. Unfortunately, many people who have tracked this housing cycle are still stuck on 2008, believing that what happened during COVID-19 was rampant demand speculation that would lead to a massive supply of homes once home sales crashed. This would mean the builders couldn’t sell more new homes or have housing permits rise.

Housing permits, starts and new home sales were falling for a while, and in 2022, the data looked recessionary. However, new home sales were never near the 2005 peak, and the builders found a workable bottom in sales by paying down mortgage rates to boost demand. The first level of job loss recessionary data has been averted for now. Below is the chart of the building permits.



On the other hand, the apartment boom and bust has already happened. Permits are already back to the levels of the COVID-19 recession and have legs to move lower. Traditionally, when this data line gets this negative, a recession isn’t far off. But, as you can see in the chart below, there’s a big gap between the housing permit data for single-family and five units. Looking at this chart, the recession would only happen after single-family and 5-unit permits fall together, not when we have a gap like we see today.

From Census: Housing completions: Privately‐owned housing completions in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,729,000.

As we can see in the chart below, we had a solid month of housing completions. This was driven by 5-unit completions, which have been in the works for a while now. Also, this month’s report show a weather impact as progress in building was held up due to bad weather. However, the good news is that more supply of rental units will mean the fight against rent inflation will be positive as more supply is the best way to deal with inflation. In time, that is also good news for mortgage rates.



Housing Starts: Privately‐owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,521,000. This is 10.7 percent (±14.2 percent)* above the revised January estimate of 1,374,000 and is 5.9 percent (±10.0 percent)* above the February 2023 rate of 1,436,000.

Housing starts data beat to the upside, but the real story is that the marketplace has diverged into two different directions. The apartment boom is over and permits are heading below the COVID-19 recession, but as long as the builders can keep rates low enough to sell more new homes, single-family permits and starts can slowly move forward.

If we lose the single-family marketplace, expect the chart below to look like it always does before a recession — meaning residential construction workers lose their jobs. For now, the apartment construction workers are at the most risk once they finish the backlog of apartments under construction.

Overall, the housing starts beat to the upside. Still, the report’s internals show a marketplace with early recessionary data lines, which traditionally mean mortgage rates should go lower soon. If housing leads us into a recession in the near future, that means mortgage rates have stayed too high for too long and restrictive policy by the Fed created a recession as we have seen in previous economic cycles.

The builders have been paying down rates to keep construction workers employed, but if rates go higher, it will get more and more challenging to do this because not all builders have the capacity to buy down rates. Last year, we saw what 8% mortgage rates did to new home sales; they dropped before rates fell. So, this is something to keep track of, especially with a critical Federal Reserve meeting this week.

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One more airline cracks down on lounge crowding in a way you won’t like

Qantas Airways is increasing the price of accessing its network of lounges by as much as 17%.

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16 hours ago

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March 19, 2024

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Over the last two years, multiple airlines have dealt with crowding in their lounges. While they are designed as a luxury experience for a small subset of travelers, high numbers of people taking a trip post-pandemic as well as the different ways they are able to gain access through status or certain credit cards made it difficult for some airlines to keep up with keeping foods stocked, common areas clean and having enough staff to serve bar drinks at the rate that customers expect them.

In the fall of 2023, Delta Air Lines  (DAL)  caught serious traveler outcry after announcing that it was cracking down on crowding by raising how much one needs to spend for lounge access and limiting the number of times one can enter those lounges.

Related: Competitors pushed Delta to backtrack on its lounge and loyalty program changes

Some airlines saw the outcry with Delta as their chance to reassure customers that they would not raise their fees while others waited for the storm to pass to quietly implement their own increases.

A photograph captures a Qantas Airways lounge in Sydney, Australia.

Shutterstock

This is how much more you'll have to pay for Qantas lounge access

Australia's flagship carrier Qantas Airways  (QUBSF)  is the latest airline to announce that it would raise the cost accessing the 24 lounges across the country as well as the 600 international lounges available at airports across the world through partner airlines.

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Unlike other airlines which grant access primarily after reaching frequent flyer status, Qantas also sells it through a membership — starting from April 18, 2024, prices will rise from $600 Australian dollars ($392 USD)  to $699 AUD ($456 USD) for one year, $1,100 ($718 USD) to $1,299 ($848 USD) for two years and $2,000 AUD ($1,304) to lock in the rate for four years.

Those signing up for lounge access for the first time also currently pay a joining fee of $99 AUD ($65 USD) that will rise to $129 AUD ($85 USD).

The airline also allows customers to purchase their membership with Qantas Points they collect through frequent travel; the membership fees are also being raised by the equivalent amount in points in what adds up to as much as 17% — from 308,000 to 399,900 to lock in access for four years.

Airline says hikes will 'cover cost increases passed on from suppliers'

"This is the first time the Qantas Club membership fees have increased in seven years and will help cover cost increases passed on from a range of suppliers over that time," a Qantas spokesperson confirmed to Simple Flying. "This follows a reduction in the membership fees for several years during the pandemic."

The spokesperson said the gains from the increases will go both towards making up for inflation-related costs and keeping existing lounges looking modern by updating features like furniture and décor.

While the price increases also do not apply for those who earned lounge access through frequent flyer status or change what it takes to earn that status, Qantas is also introducing even steeper increases for those renewing a membership or adding additional features such as spouse and partner memberships.

In some cases, the cost of these features will nearly double from what members are paying now.

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