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Bitcoin adoption heats up as climate change wreaks havoc worldwide

Bitcoin adoption heats up as climate change wreaks havoc worldwide

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3 years ago

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As the world continues to warm and face the effects of climate change, what does this mean for Bitcoin, blockchain and the world of crypto?

In October 2018, the journal Nature Climate Change made headlines both within the crypto world and beyond after it published a study claiming that within three decades, the carbon emissions of the Bitcoin network alone could push the planet past 2 degrees Celsius of warming — the threshold established by the international Paris Agreement. 

While additional research has been released since, showing that much of the Bitcoin network actually relies on renewable energy sources, the initial reporting has been influential in shaping the way in which people understand the role of cryptocurrency within the context of the global climate crisis: The planet is warming, and cryptocurrency is, at least in part, to blame.

However, the truth is that the relationship between crypto and climate is much more complex, as global warming has consequences far beyond how hot summers are. Earlier this month, the United States Commodities Futures Trading Commission released a report on the risk of climate change to financial markets, which reads: “Climate change poses a major risk to the stability of the U.S. financial system and to its ability to sustain the American economy.”

This latest report is just one of many pointing to the same thing: The effects of climate change have the potential to impact human society well beyond increases in heat and changes in weather patterns. Some possible impacts include food and water supply disruptions, mass refugee migrations, more frequent pandemics, and increases in regional and global instability, resulting in conflict.

With all that in mind, it becomes clear that reducing the relationship between crypto and climate change to a one-way street in which Bitcoin (BTC) affects the climate but not vice versa is a gross simplification. So, how exactly are the effects of climate change impacting the use and adoption of crypto, and what are some of the potential long-term consequences?

Climate change is already hurting BTC mining

China currently commands a dominating 65% majority of the Bitcoin network’s hashing power, but as the planet continues to warm, the risk of severe weather affecting BTC mining operations rises. In August 2019, major mining pool Poolin reported that its facilities were damaged by heavy rainfall and mudslides. In August of this year, Poolin again reported extensive damage to its facilities. In fact, China has seen its worst flooding in decades this summer, and climate change has been an undeniable contributor.

According to Alejandro De La Torre, the vice president of Poolin, the company’s operations have been severely disrupted by the extreme weather in China and subsequent power and internet outages. “We saw hash-rate drops of between 10% and 20% during the rainstorms,” he told Cointelegraph, adding: “Facilities that were not in the immediate path of the mudslides also experienced severe rain damage to their infrastructure.”

While heavy rainfall is a normal part of China’s monsoon season, as the planet warms, the likelihood and intensity of extreme rainfall events increase. In fact, if the planet warms by 4 degrees Celsius, China is considered to be the most vulnerable country in the world in terms of the potential impacts of flooding events. For each 0.5 C of warming, annual flood losses in the nation are expected to increase by $60 billion.

So, if this trend of extreme weather continues, how will the mining sector respond? De La Torre predicted that miners will have no choice but to adjust to the new normal and factor extreme weather into their operations:

“If this trend of extreme weather continues, then the risk factors for mining farm operators will have to reflect that. This, in turn, might make things like insurance more costly. Alternatively, operators might have to spend more time and effort in choosing the right location of their farms and also increase initial expenditure of their venture.”

Regional instability made worse

One of the less-talked-about impacts of climate change is how it can impact regional and global stability, which subsequently affects the decisions governments make. But societies are complex, and it is difficult, if not impossible, to say that any one specific event is directly caused by climate change.

Michele Orzan, the founder of environmental nonprofit initiative Greenwill and a European digital leader for the World Economic Forum, pointed this fact out to Cointelegraph, adding that when it comes to Bitcoin:

“Climate change, being somehow predictable, and its unwanted effects are not really affecting Bitcoin. [...] There is a concern about the possibility that policymakers, and not natural disasters, will disturb more the essence of cryptocurrencies, proposing more restricted regulations against decentralization.”

However, Orzan did point out that “Natural calamities and global emergencies, through feelings of fear, can at the same time lead to more aggressive speculation and increased volatility.”

Venezuela, for example, has been in an economic and political crisis for the past several years, stemming from a drop in oil prices in 2014 that ravaged an already ailing economy. In 2019, the nation’s fiat currency, the bolivar, saw astronomical hyperinflation rates of 10,000,000%. This led many Venezuelans to take their money out of the failing financial system and put it into alternative assets such as Bitcoin, with the total volume of bolivars being taken onto peer-to-peer exchanges increasing by over 350,000% from the start of 2019.

In terms of BTC volume, transactions in Venezuela peaked in February 2019, coinciding with the New York Times publishing an opinion piece titled “Bitcoin Has Saved My Family,” written by a Venezuelan who kept his money in BTC to avoid crippling inflation. In May, cryptocurrency adoption in the country received another boost when startup Cryptobuyer teamed up with payments processor Mega Soft to empower thousands of local merchants to accept tokens such as Bitcoin, Ether (ETH), Litecoin (LTC) and more.

But what is rarely mentioned when discussing the instability in Venezuela is the fact that from 2013 to 2016 — the same period during which oil prices collapsed — the nation received 50%–65% less rainfall than the annual average. Low water levels at the nation’s hydroelectric dams led to frequent electricity disruptions as well as water shortages and rationing in Caracas, Venezuela’s capital and largest city, and elsewhere.

The frequency of such drought events is only expected to increase as the planet warms. While it is impossible to say that the crisis in Venezuela was caused by climate change, what is becoming increasingly clear is that already fraught situations are made much worse by its effects. When a society is already teetering dangerously close to the edge of crisis, climate change may just provide the slight push needed to send it careening off and even drive some people to switch from centralized to decentralized currencies.

Concern over climate change drives people to blockchain technology

It should come as no surprise that millennials are more likely than older generations to consider global warming to be important. Another rarely talked about impact of climate change is that young people look for sustainable investing, driving more companies to take stronger stances on the issue. A 2019 survey conducted by Morgan Stanley found that 95% of millennial investors are interested in sustainable investing, while a more recent study by Stack Funds found that over 50% of Bitcoin investors are millennials.

Two of the most widely recognized benefits of blockchain technology are its transparency and its immutability; they showcase proof to concerned consumers that the company they are purchasing from is not negatively impacting the climate. Alexey Shadrin, a co-founder and the CEO of Evercity — the company managing DAO IPCI, a decentralized autonomous organization working on blockchain-based climate change solutions — told Cointelegraph that younger generations are driving the adoption of blockchain-oriented solutions:

“The request for more sustainable financing options comes mainly from the new generations — more than 2/3 of millennials ask their financial managers to provide sustainable investing options. Considering that blockchain is better widespread among younger generations, we forecast a significant rise in sustainability and climate-related blockchain-powered fintechs in both B2B and B2C people-centric solutions.”

Tom Baumann, the founder and a co-chair of the Climate Chain Coalition — a network of organizations promoting blockchain technology to fight climate change — told Cointelegraph that in his personal opinion, climate change will be a major driver in the adoption of blockchain in the next decade as farmers, energy providers and others find ways to be more efficient in the face of reduced resources. As for concerned consumers, Baumann added that blockchain allows them to track the source and movements of products:

“You can verify that they’re not coming from sources that are under threat or have been compromised one way or the other, so we know they’re not inadvertently contributing to climate [change] or environmental negative impacts.”

Finally, some are jumping on the blockchain bandwagon as a way to prepare for and survive a dystopian or apocalyptic future. Bitcoin has in the past few years earned a reputation among many preppers and survivalists as being equal to, if not worth more than, gold. Earlier this month, entertainer Adam Curry told podcaster Joe Rogan that “the apocalypse is coming, and you’re gonna need a Bitcoin — at least one.”

With 19% of Americans surveyed earlier this year telling YouGov that they think climate change would be the most likely cause of an apocalypse, and with major news publications such as Bloomberg and The Guardian running headlines suggesting people have been preparing for climate catastrophe, it’s very likely that a significant number of people are being driven to the world of crypto.

What’s next?

As the planet’s temperature continues to rise, it’s all but certain that extreme weather and instability will increase with it. The direct results of these changes are already being experienced in the form of more frequent rainfall and flooding, and the indirect effects are contributing to major regional and international crises. But what does this mean for the long-term adoption of blockchain and crypto?

A number of reports point to regional and/or global instability as being a driving force pushing people toward crypto, and the current COVID-19 pandemic crisis has only amplified this belief among some. A study published earlier this year in Small Business Economics offers “support for the view that bitcoin adoption is driven by perceived failings of traditional financial institutions and systems.” The authors of the study added: “We also find greater supply of and demand for Bitcoin infrastructure in years in which countries undergo inflation crises.”

With climate change predicted to be a major driver of instability and a significant influence on the economy in the coming years, with some estimates predicting a 25% decline in global gross domestic product, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies may just prove to be the money of the future, after all — with blockchain serving as the backbone.

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International

The next pandemic? It’s already here for Earth’s wildlife

Bird flu is decimating species already threatened by climate change and habitat loss.

Published

37 mins ago

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March 11, 2024

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I am a conservation biologist who studies emerging infectious diseases. When people ask me what I think the next pandemic will be I often say that we are in the midst of one – it’s just afflicting a great many species more than ours.

I am referring to the highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza H5N1 (HPAI H5N1), otherwise known as bird flu, which has killed millions of birds and unknown numbers of mammals, particularly during the past three years.

This is the strain that emerged in domestic geese in China in 1997 and quickly jumped to humans in south-east Asia with a mortality rate of around 40-50%. My research group encountered the virus when it killed a mammal, an endangered Owston’s palm civet, in a captive breeding programme in Cuc Phuong National Park Vietnam in 2005.

How these animals caught bird flu was never confirmed. Their diet is mainly earthworms, so they had not been infected by eating diseased poultry like many captive tigers in the region.

This discovery prompted us to collate all confirmed reports of fatal infection with bird flu to assess just how broad a threat to wildlife this virus might pose.

This is how a newly discovered virus in Chinese poultry came to threaten so much of the world’s biodiversity.

H5N1 originated on a Chinese poultry farm in 1997. ChameleonsEye/Shutterstock

The first signs

Until December 2005, most confirmed infections had been found in a few zoos and rescue centres in Thailand and Cambodia. Our analysis in 2006 showed that nearly half (48%) of all the different groups of birds (known to taxonomists as “orders”) contained a species in which a fatal infection of bird flu had been reported. These 13 orders comprised 84% of all bird species.

We reasoned 20 years ago that the strains of H5N1 circulating were probably highly pathogenic to all bird orders. We also showed that the list of confirmed infected species included those that were globally threatened and that important habitats, such as Vietnam’s Mekong delta, lay close to reported poultry outbreaks.

Mammals known to be susceptible to bird flu during the early 2000s included primates, rodents, pigs and rabbits. Large carnivores such as Bengal tigers and clouded leopards were reported to have been killed, as well as domestic cats.

Our 2006 paper showed the ease with which this virus crossed species barriers and suggested it might one day produce a pandemic-scale threat to global biodiversity.

Unfortunately, our warnings were correct.

A roving sickness

Two decades on, bird flu is killing species from the high Arctic to mainland Antarctica.

In the past couple of years, bird flu has spread rapidly across Europe and infiltrated North and South America, killing millions of poultry and a variety of bird and mammal species. A recent paper found that 26 countries have reported at least 48 mammal species that have died from the virus since 2020, when the latest increase in reported infections started.

Not even the ocean is safe. Since 2020, 13 species of aquatic mammal have succumbed, including American sea lions, porpoises and dolphins, often dying in their thousands in South America. A wide range of scavenging and predatory mammals that live on land are now also confirmed to be susceptible, including mountain lions, lynx, brown, black and polar bears.

The UK alone has lost over 75% of its great skuas and seen a 25% decline in northern gannets. Recent declines in sandwich terns (35%) and common terns (42%) were also largely driven by the virus.

Scientists haven’t managed to completely sequence the virus in all affected species. Research and continuous surveillance could tell us how adaptable it ultimately becomes, and whether it can jump to even more species. We know it can already infect humans – one or more genetic mutations may make it more infectious.

At the crossroads

Between January 1 2003 and December 21 2023, 882 cases of human infection with the H5N1 virus were reported from 23 countries, of which 461 (52%) were fatal.

Of these fatal cases, more than half were in Vietnam, China, Cambodia and Laos. Poultry-to-human infections were first recorded in Cambodia in December 2003. Intermittent cases were reported until 2014, followed by a gap until 2023, yielding 41 deaths from 64 cases. The subtype of H5N1 virus responsible has been detected in poultry in Cambodia since 2014. In the early 2000s, the H5N1 virus circulating had a high human mortality rate, so it is worrying that we are now starting to see people dying after contact with poultry again.

It’s not just H5 subtypes of bird flu that concern humans. The H10N1 virus was originally isolated from wild birds in South Korea, but has also been reported in samples from China and Mongolia.

Recent research found that these particular virus subtypes may be able to jump to humans after they were found to be pathogenic in laboratory mice and ferrets. The first person who was confirmed to be infected with H10N5 died in China on January 27 2024, but this patient was also suffering from seasonal flu (H3N2). They had been exposed to live poultry which also tested positive for H10N5.

Species already threatened with extinction are among those which have died due to bird flu in the past three years. The first deaths from the virus in mainland Antarctica have just been confirmed in skuas, highlighting a looming threat to penguin colonies whose eggs and chicks skuas prey on. Humboldt penguins have already been killed by the virus in Chile.

A colony of king penguins.
Remote penguin colonies are already threatened by climate change. AndreAnita/Shutterstock

How can we stem this tsunami of H5N1 and other avian influenzas? Completely overhaul poultry production on a global scale. Make farms self-sufficient in rearing eggs and chicks instead of exporting them internationally. The trend towards megafarms containing over a million birds must be stopped in its tracks.

To prevent the worst outcomes for this virus, we must revisit its primary source: the incubator of intensive poultry farms.

Diana Bell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked…

Published

2 hours ago

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March 11, 2024

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked by the NY Fed Consumer Survey extended their late 2023 slide, with 3Y inflation expectations in January sliding to a record low 2.4% (from 2.6% in December), even as 1 and 5Y inflation forecasts remained flat, moments ago the NY Fed reported that in February there was a sharp rebound in longer-term inflation expectations, rising to 2.7% from 2.4% at the three-year ahead horizon, and jumping to 2.9% from 2.5% at the five-year ahead horizon, while the 1Y inflation outlook was flat for the 3rd month in a row, stuck at 3.0%. 

The increases in both the three-year ahead and five-year ahead measures were most pronounced for respondents with at most high school degrees (in other words, the "really smart folks" are expecting deflation soon). The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons, while the median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one- and three-year ahead horizons and remained unchanged at the five-year ahead horizon.

Going down the survey, we find that the median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% for gas; decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 6.8% for the cost of medical care (its lowest reading since September 2020); decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% for the cost of a college education; and surprisingly decreased by 0.3 percentage point for rent to 6.1% (its lowest reading since December 2020), and remained flat for food at 4.9%.

We find the rent expectations surprising because it is happening just asking rents are rising across the country.

At the same time as consumers erroneously saw sharply lower rents, median home price growth expectations remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month at 3.0%.

Turning to the labor market, the survey found that the average perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job separations increased, while the perceived likelihood of finding a job (in the event of a job loss) declined. "The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also increased, by 1.8 percentage points to 19.5%."

Mean unemployment expectations - or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now - decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 36.1%, the lowest reading since February 2022. Additionally, the median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth was unchanged at 2.8%, remaining slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 2.9%.

Turning to household finance, we find the following:

  • The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.1%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.9% to 3.3% since January 2023, and remains above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 2.7%.
  • Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%. The increase was driven by respondents with a high school degree or less.
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased to 9.3% from 8.9%.
  • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 26.1%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 30%.
  • Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated somewhat with fewer respondents reporting being better off than a year ago. Year-ahead expectations also deteriorated marginally with a smaller share of respondents expecting to be better off and a slightly larger share of respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now.
  • The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.4 percentage point to 38.9%.
  • At the same time, perceptions and expectations about credit access turned less optimistic: "Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated with a larger share of respondents reporting tighter conditions and a smaller share reporting looser conditions compared to a year ago."

Also, a smaller percentage of consumers, 11.45% vs 12.14% in prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months

Last, and perhaps most humorous, is the now traditional cognitive dissonance one observes with these polls, because at a time when long-term inflation expectations jumped, which clearly suggests that financial conditions will need to be tightened, the number of respondents expecting higher stock prices one year from today jumped to the highest since November 2021... which incidentally is just when the market topped out during the last cycle before suffering a painful bear market.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 12:40

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A major cruise line is testing a monthly subscription service

The Cruise Scarlet Summer Season Pass was designed with remote workers in mind.

Published

2 hours ago

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March 11, 2024

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While going on a cruise once meant disconnecting from the world when between ports because any WiFi available aboard was glitchy and expensive, advances in technology over the last decade have enabled millions to not only stay in touch with home but even work remotely.

With such remote workers and digital nomads in mind, Virgin Voyages has designed a monthly pass that gives those who want to work from the seas a WFH setup on its Scarlet Lady ship — while the latter acronym usually means "work from home," the cruise line is advertising as "work from the helm.”

Related: Royal Caribbean shares a warning with passengers

"Inspired by Richard Branson's belief and track record that brilliant work is best paired with a hearty dose of fun, we're welcoming Sailors on board Scarlet Lady for a full month to help them achieve that perfect work-life balance," Virgin Voyages said in announcing its new promotion. "Take a vacation away from your monotonous work-from-home set up (sorry, but…not sorry) and start taking calls from your private balcony overlooking the Mediterranean sea."

A man looks through his phone while sitting in a hot tub on a cruise ship.

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This is how much it'll cost you to work from a cruise ship for a month

While the single most important feature for successful work at sea — WiFi — is already available for free on Virgin cruises, the new Scarlet Summer Season Pass includes a faster connection, a $10 daily coffee credit, access to a private rooftop, and other member-only areas as well as wash and fold laundry service that Virgin advertises as a perk that will allow one to concentrate on work

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The pass starts at $9,990 for a two-guest cabin and is available for four monthlong cruises departing in June, July, August, and September — each departs from ports such as Barcelona, Marseille, and Palma de Mallorca and spends four weeks touring around the Mediterranean.

Longer cruises are becoming more common, here's why

The new pass is essentially a version of an upgraded cruise package with additional perks but is specifically tailored to those who plan on working from the ship as an opportunity to market to them.

"Stay connected to your work with the fastest at-sea internet in the biz when you want and log-off to let the exquisite landscape of the Mediterranean inspire you when you need," reads the promotional material for the pass.

Amid the rise of remote work post-pandemic, cruise lines have been seeing growing interest in longer journeys in which many of the passengers not just vacation in the traditional sense but work from a mobile office.

In 2023, Turkish cruise line operator Miray even started selling cabins on a three-year tour around the world but the endeavor hit the rocks after one of the engineers declared the MV Gemini ship the company planned to use for the journey "unseaworthy" and the cruise ship line dealt with a PR scandal that ultimately sank the project before it could take off.

While three years at sea would have set a record as the longest cruise journey on the market, companies such as Royal Caribbean  (RCL) (both with its namesake brand and its Celebrity Cruises line) have been offering increasingly long cruises that serve as many people’s temporary homes and cross through multiple continents.

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