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BETTER HOMES AND GARDENS® REAL ESTATE BROKERS IDENTIFY POTENTIAL TRENDS IN SPRING SELLING SEASON

BETTER HOMES AND GARDENS® REAL ESTATE BROKERS IDENTIFY POTENTIAL TRENDS IN SPRING SELLING SEASON
PR Newswire
MADISON, N.J., March 21, 2022

Brokers Debunk Notion of a Bubble, Foresee Prices Holding for Near Term
MADISON, N.J., March 21, 2022 /PRNe…

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BETTER HOMES AND GARDENS® REAL ESTATE BROKERS IDENTIFY POTENTIAL TRENDS IN SPRING SELLING SEASON

PR Newswire

Brokers Debunk Notion of a Bubble, Foresee Prices Holding for Near Term

MADISON, N.J., March 21, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate LLC is thinking spring – spring selling season that is. A recent roundtable discussion with several Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate brokers across the country revealed that historic seasonality patterns have been affected by today's market conditions. Most notably, record low inventory levels could provide to have an impact on this year's spring selling season.

"Real estate professionals are highly adaptable and the last two years of the COVID-19 pandemic have proven that our industry is resilient in the face of change," said Sherry Chris, President & CEO, Better Homes and Gardens® Real Estate. "As we enter the third spring selling season since COVID-19 emerged, the BHGRE® brand wanted to explore what our affiliates were experiencing in different parts of the country. The broker panel observed that strict seasonality is seeing signs of change. However, it is important to understand all of the underlying factors contributing to this significant shift in real estate market dynamics. What is clear is that a lack of inventory stemming from stalled new development is setting the industry up for continued disruption. Identifying and overcoming barriers to building new homes will be critical in meeting the incredible demand for housing that now exists in our country. In the short term, buyers and sellers can follow the advice of their agents on how to best position themselves for success."

Timing Trends
According to the brokers interviewed, the timing of the spring selling season varies. In Northern New England, the spring selling season typically kicks off in March, but with only 30 days of supply, there aren't enough homes to create a seasonal sales "spike" this year. People also appear to be waiting out January and February to see COVID-19 cases go down to reduce potential exposure. In Portland, Oregon, spring selling season usually starts at the beginning of the year, although it was observed that 2022 activity was stalled by the omicron variant surge. Brokers are seeing some traces of seasonality, but it's not full-blown. People will move as soon as the opportunity presents itself, which means for sellers, there's never a bad time to sell anymore.

"With just one week of inventory, an uptick in seasonal activity is not possible here in Portland," said Danielle Bade, principal broker and vice presidentBetter Homes and Gardens Real Estate Realty Partners & Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Northwest Living. "Homes sell as soon as they come on the market. People aren't waiting for a traditional season to enter the market."

"Despite having low inventory in our market, we may still see a surge across Sonoma and Lake County, California as some real estate professionals push their sellers to bring their homes onto the market to get the most value," noted Randy Coffman, president, Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Wine Country Group in Northern California. "

Pricing Fluctuations
According to the brokers interviewed, in Northern New England, prices are still considered moderate compared to urban areas. However, they are increasing, which puts pressure on local residents looking to buy in-market. In Lehigh Valley, Pa., which sits between New York City and Philadelphia, home prices are lower compared to the major cities. In Northern California, prices are flattening out somewhat but are still higher than expected due to low inventory. In Portland, prices are not expected to come down this year.

Despite double-digit price increases, the brokers interviewed are confident this is not a real estate bubble. Appreciation rates could moderate a bit, but prices won't come down. Panelists reported they are staying attuned to consumer tolerance for rising prices, and seller greed, which could cool the market.

"This is an entirely different dynamic from 2008, which was driven by lax lending," said Chris Masiello, CEO of Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate The Masiello Group in Northern New England. "This is a supply and demand issue that is being guided by demographics: millennials and baby boomers are orbiting the market for the same housing stock. These first-time homebuyers and downsizing buyers are vying for the same properties."

"There is a potential for prices to plateau and then return to a more normal appreciation rate," said Jack Gross, owner of Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Cassidon Realty in Lehigh Valley, Pa.  "We might also see buyer frustration cause people to leave the market because they are tired of not getting a home. But consumer confidence in the housing market is high, which makes them open to overpaying."

"We are starting to see home price increases flatten out somewhat, but it is still higher than expected due to the low inventory," shared Randy Coffman, president, Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Wine Country Group in Northern California.

Shifts in Buyer Mindsets
Brokers interviewed are seeing an increasing sense of urgency from consumers to "win" the home, bidding up the price beyond normal appreciation rates. This means they are paying now for what a house could be worth in two years. As a result, the phrasing has changed from "I bought a home" to "I won the bid." And for those unable to "win," buyer fatigue has kept people out of the market in recent months.

Another shift noticed by the brokers who participated in the roundtable is that people are not interested in homes requiring significant sweat equity. Instead, they are more focused on their careers and don't want to invest significant time or effort time in fixing up an outdated house.

Further, the brokers observed that living with COVID-19 has worn down the psyche. Depending on the region, consumers are either tired of the coronavirus and moving forward with plans or still in a holding pattern created by health anxiety.

"Despite home prices increasing about 30% in Central Florida, the market is not slowing down, although the lack of inventory is discouraging for buyers, particularly first-time buyers who are contending with rising rents," said Dana Hall-Bradley, Broker/Owner, Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Fine Living in Celebration, Fla.

Seller Mindset
Participating brokers report that current inventory conditions are giving new meaning to the term "seller's market." In some cases, sellers are becoming irrational on pricing, insisting on list prices well above current market values. In other instances, sellers are getting more cautious with pricing too high. However, brokers report that homes are still getting multiple offers over list price when priced right.

According to Chris Masiello, CEO of Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate The Masiello Group, "For most sellers, the biggest deterrent is 'Where will I go?'" 

Brokers shared that people in Portland are going to Arizona for some sun, often retiring a few years earlier than planned. Urban dwellers in California are moving north, while people in Pennsylvania are heading south to Florida. People in New England are selling their family homes and taking up primary residence in their second or summer home until a suitable primary home becomes available. Others are downsizing to a tiny home or RV.

"We are hearing more from sellers that it's not always about the highest price – offers with contingencies are less desirable," said Danielle Bade, principal broker and vice president, Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Realty Partners & Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Northwest Living.

Interest Rates
The brokers interviewed observed that the increase in interest rates from 3.5% to 4% is not a real financial driver. They noted that they do not envision it having a substantial negative impact on the market. It may, however, be an emotional one as people get off the fence and try to beat the market. Interestingly, the participating brokers are noticing a shift in the historical relationship between inflation and interest rates, which is now inverted.

"Buyers may initially see the rates as higher but remember -- historically, they are still low, and there is bound to be a little give and take," said Randy Coffman, president, Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Wine Country Group in Northern California. "Prices go down a little; rates go up. It evens out."

Migration
According to NAR, as more people can work from home, city dwellers are moving to the suburbs. Participating brokers report that those who come from New York City can sell a $2.5M townhome and move into a $600,000 4,000 square foot Colonial in Lehigh Valley, Pa. Similarly, people who move to rural Vermont from Manhattan still earn city wages. As a result of migration, primary markets are becoming saturated, making secondary markets the main focus, and tertiary markets secondary.

As inbound moves from higher-priced markets drive up prices, the dramatic double-digit price increases serve to rise all tides. The brokers interviewed believe that local residents get an economic lift as more people migrate to the area, bringing their city spending habits and salaries, likely creating more job opportunities in the next 12-18 months.

Brokers also report seeing a shift in priorities as people are no longer tied to a geographic area for their job. They used to want a bigger kitchen with room to entertain at home. What's the rest of this statement? Now they want…X, Y Z

"We are seeing heavy migration patterns from the metro DC/Maryland regions, along the coastal corridor to Northern New England, including Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Vermont," remarked Chris Masiello, CEO of Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate The Masiello Group. "In lesser populated, rural areas, people are now buying property and land that hasn't transferred in 30 years or more, which is creating a lot of title issues."

New Construction
According to participating brokers, permit logjams, supply chain issues, and lack of builder confidence have created a dire shortage of new homes. COVID notwithstanding, significantly fewer new homes are being built while populations are increasing. For example, between 1950 and 2010, the number of new homes built in each decade ranged from 10 million to 14.5 million. But from 2010 to 2020, just 7 million homes were built, while the number of new households formed during that same time period exceeded 10 million.

The brokers interviewed advise that communities need to decide how to help the new inventory issue, which requires cooperation at the local level. "Overcoming the inventory shortage will be the responsibility of local planning boards. They need to assess the needs and act. We are not seeing the supply chain issue or labor shortages as bad as they were last year. There is so much cash in the market now just looking for a place to go to work to get a return," according to Chris Masiello, CEO of Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate The Masiello Group.

"Developers got caught in 2008, so they are not eager to jump back in," said Jack Gross, owner, Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Cassidon Realty. "In Lehigh Valley, it takes 3-5 years to approve a subdivision, which is a significant deterrent when you can get an immediate return in the stock market."

Tips for Sellers and Buyers

According to the panel of BHGRE® brokers, here are a few suggestions and tips that real estate professionals can share with buyers and sellers in today's dynamic market.

Tips for Buyers

  • Get preapproved.
  • Have a substantial down payment saved.
  • If you can pay cash, do so and refinance later.
  • Be flexible on the closing date.
  • Always make your best offer first and resist the temptation to hold back your effort upfront. 
  • Be willing to waive the inspection.
  • Have the means to make an "additional down payment" if the appraisal comes in low.
  • Line up short-term interim housing between sales to put yourself in a better position to compete in a multiple offer situation.

Tips for Sellers

  • Even in today's tight market, it is still important to put your best foot forward, so don't skimp on staging, home repairs and cleanliness.
  • Prepare your home for the market by hiring a professional cleaning crew and professional handyman/repair service to perform paint touch-ups, fixture upgrades, etc. This will encourage buyers to make their very best offers and result in fewer days on the market.
  • Offering a home warranty can help encourage buyers to waive their inspection.
  • Ensure all potential buyers are financially qualified.
  • Consider the terms offered as just as critical as the price. A cash offer with fewer contingencies may be better than a higher offer with many contingencies.

About Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate LLC
Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate LLC is a dynamic real estate brand that offers a full range of services to brokers, sales associates and home buyers and sellers. Using innovative technology, sophisticated business systems and the broad appeal of a lifestyle brand, Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate LLC embodies the future of the real estate industry while remaining grounded in the tradition of home. Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate LLC is a subsidiary of Realogy Holdings Corp. (NYSE: RLGY), a global leader in real estate franchising and provider of real estate brokerage, relocation and settlement services.

The growing Better Homes and Gardens® Real Estate network includes more than 12,500 independent sales associates and approximately 390 offices serving home buyers and sellers across the United States, Canada, Jamaica, The Bahamas, Australia and New Zealand.

Better Homes & Gardens® is a registered trademark of Dotdash Meredith licensed to Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate LLC and used with permission. An Equal Opportunity Company. Equal Housing Opportunity. Each Better Homes and Gardens® Real Estate Franchise is independently owned and operated.

Media Contact: 

Marie VanAssendelft
201-724-6372
Marie.VanAssendelft@bhgre.com

Colleen Imler
908-619-4304
Colleen.imler@bhgre.com

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Vaccine-skeptical mothers say bad health care experiences made them distrust the medical system

Vaccine skepticism, and the broader medical mistrust and far-reaching anxieties it reflects, is not just a fringe position in the 21st century.

Women's own negative medical experiences influence their vaccine decisions for their kids. AP Photo/Ted S. Warren

Why would a mother reject safe, potentially lifesaving vaccines for her child?

Popular writing on vaccine skepticism often denigrates white and middle-class mothers who reject some or all recommended vaccines as hysterical, misinformed, zealous or ignorant. Mainstream media and medical providers increasingly dismiss vaccine refusal as a hallmark of American fringe ideology, far-right radicalization or anti-intellectualism.

But vaccine skepticism, and the broader medical mistrust and far-reaching anxieties it reflects, is not just a fringe position.

Pediatric vaccination rates had already fallen sharply before the COVID-19 pandemic, ushering in the return of measles, mumps and chickenpox to the U.S. in 2019. Four years after the pandemic’s onset, a growing number of Americans doubt the safety, efficacy and necessity of routine vaccines. Childhood vaccination rates have declined substantially across the U.S., which public health officials attribute to a “spillover” effect from pandemic-related vaccine skepticism and blame for the recent measles outbreak. Almost half of American mothers rated the risk of side effects from the MMR vaccine as medium or high in a 2023 survey by Pew Research.

Recommended vaccines go through rigorous testing and evaluation, and the most infamous charges of vaccine-induced injury have been thoroughly debunked. How do so many mothers – primary caregivers and health care decision-makers for their families – become wary of U.S. health care and one of its most proven preventive technologies?

I’m a cultural anthropologist who studies the ways feelings and beliefs circulate in American society. To investigate what’s behind mothers’ vaccine skepticism, I interviewed vaccine-skeptical mothers about their perceptions of existing and novel vaccines. What they told me complicates sweeping and overly simplified portrayals of their misgivings by pointing to the U.S. health care system itself. The medical system’s failures and harms against women gave rise to their pervasive vaccine skepticism and generalized medical mistrust.

The seeds of women’s skepticism

I conducted this ethnographic research in Oregon from 2020 to 2021 with predominantly white mothers between the ages of 25 and 60. My findings reveal new insights about the origins of vaccine skepticism among this demographic. These women traced their distrust of vaccines, and of U.S. health care more generally, to ongoing and repeated instances of medical harm they experienced from childhood through childbirth.

girl sitting on exam table faces a doctor viewer can see from behind
A woman’s own childhood mistreatment by a doctor can shape her health care decisions for the next generation. FatCamera/E+ via Getty Images

As young girls in medical offices, they were touched without consent, yelled at, disbelieved or threatened. One mother, Susan, recalled her pediatrician abruptly lying her down and performing a rectal exam without her consent at the age of 12. Another mother, Luna, shared how a pediatrician once threatened to have her institutionalized when she voiced anxiety at a routine physical.

As women giving birth, they often felt managed, pressured or discounted. One mother, Meryl, told me, “I felt like I was coerced under distress into Pitocin and induction” during labor. Another mother, Hallie, shared, “I really battled with my provider” throughout the childbirth experience.

Together with the convoluted bureaucracy of for-profit health care, experiences of medical harm contributed to “one million little touch points of information,” in one mother’s phrase, that underscored the untrustworthiness and harmful effects of U.S. health care writ large.

A system that doesn’t serve them

Many mothers I interviewed rejected the premise that public health entities such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Food and Drug Administration had their children’s best interests at heart. Instead, they tied childhood vaccination and the more recent development of COVID-19 vaccines to a bloated pharmaceutical industry and for-profit health care model. As one mother explained, “The FDA is not looking out for our health. They’re looking out for their wealth.”

After ongoing negative medical encounters, the women I interviewed lost trust not only in providers but the medical system. Frustrating experiences prompted them to “do their own research” in the name of bodily autonomy. Such research often included books, articles and podcasts deeply critical of vaccines, public health care and drug companies.

These materials, which have proliferated since 2020, cast light on past vaccine trials gone awry, broader histories of medical harm and abuse, the rapid growth of the recommended vaccine schedule in the late 20th century and the massive profits reaped from drug development and for-profit health care. They confirmed and hardened women’s suspicions about U.S. health care.

hands point to a handwritten vaccination record
The number of recommended childhood vaccines has increased over time. Mike Adaskaveg/MediaNews Group/Boston Herald via Getty Images

The stories these women told me add nuance to existing academic research into vaccine skepticism. Most studies have considered vaccine skepticism among primarily white and middle-class parents to be an outgrowth of today’s neoliberal parenting and intensive mothering. Researchers have theorized vaccine skepticism among white and well-off mothers to be an outcome of consumer health care and its emphasis on individual choice and risk reduction. Other researchers highlight vaccine skepticism as a collective identity that can provide mothers with a sense of belonging.

Seeing medical care as a threat to health

The perceptions mothers shared are far from isolated or fringe, and they are not unreasonable. Rather, they represent a growing population of Americans who hold the pervasive belief that U.S. health care harms more than it helps.

Data suggests that the number of Americans harmed in the course of treatment remains high, with incidents of medical error in the U.S. outnumbering those in peer countries, despite more money being spent per capita on health care. One 2023 study found that diagnostic error, one kind of medical error, accounted for 371,000 deaths and 424,000 permanent disabilities among Americans every year.

Studies reveal particularly high rates of medical error in the treatment of vulnerable communities, including women, people of color, disabled, poor, LGBTQ+ and gender-nonconforming individuals and the elderly. The number of U.S. women who have died because of pregnancy-related causes has increased substantially in recent years, with maternal death rates doubling between 1999 and 2019.

The prevalence of medical harm points to the relevance of philosopher Ivan Illich’s manifesto against the “disease of medical progress.” In his 1982 book “Medical Nemesis,” he insisted that rather than being incidental, harm flows inevitably from the structure of institutionalized and for-profit health care itself. Illich wrote, “The medical establishment has become a major threat to health,” and has created its own “epidemic” of iatrogenic illness – that is, illness caused by a physician or the health care system itself.

Four decades later, medical mistrust among Americans remains alarmingly high. Only 23% of Americans express high confidence in the medical system. The United States ranks 24th out of 29 peer high-income countries for the level of public trust in medical providers.

For people like the mothers I interviewed, who have experienced real or perceived harm at the hands of medical providers; have felt belittled, dismissed or disbelieved in a doctor’s office; or spent countless hours fighting to pay for, understand or use health benefits, skepticism and distrust are rational responses to lived experience. These attitudes do not emerge solely from ignorance, conspiracy thinking, far-right extremism or hysteria, but rather the historical and ongoing harms endemic to the U.S. health care system itself.

Johanna Richlin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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Is the National Guard a solution to school violence?

School board members in one Massachusetts district have called for the National Guard to address student misbehavior. Does their request have merit? A…

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Every now and then, an elected official will suggest bringing in the National Guard to deal with violence that seems out of control.

A city council member in Washington suggested doing so in 2023 to combat the city’s rising violence. So did a Pennsylvania representative concerned about violence in Philadelphia in 2022.

In February 2024, officials in Massachusetts requested the National Guard be deployed to a more unexpected location – to a high school.

Brockton High School has been struggling with student fights, drug use and disrespect toward staff. One school staffer said she was trampled by a crowd rushing to see a fight. Many teachers call in sick to work each day, leaving the school understaffed.

As a researcher who studies school discipline, I know Brockton’s situation is part of a national trend of principals and teachers who have been struggling to deal with perceived increases in student misbehavior since the pandemic.

A review of how the National Guard has been deployed to schools in the past shows the guard can provide service to schools in cases of exceptional need. Yet, doing so does not always end well.

How have schools used the National Guard before?

In 1957, the National Guard blocked nine Black students’ attempts to desegregate Central High School in Little Rock, Arkansas. While the governor claimed this was for safety, the National Guard effectively delayed desegregation of the school – as did the mobs of white individuals outside. Ironically, weeks later, the National Guard and the U.S. Army would enforce integration and the safety of the “Little Rock Nine” on orders from President Dwight Eisenhower.

Three men from the mob around Little Rock’s Central High School are driven from the area at bayonet-point by soldiers of the 101st Airborne Division on Sept. 25, 1957. The presence of the troops permitted the nine Black students to enter the school with only minor background incidents. Bettmann via Getty Images

One of the most tragic cases of the National Guard in an educational setting came in 1970 at Kent State University. The National Guard was brought to campus to respond to protests over American involvement in the Vietnam War. The guardsmen fatally shot four students.

In 2012, then-Sen. Barbara Boxer, a Democrat from California, proposed funding to use the National Guard to provide school security in the wake of the Sandy Hook school shooting. The bill was not passed.

More recently, the National Guard filled teacher shortages in New Mexico’s K-12 schools during the quarantines and sickness of the pandemic. While the idea did not catch on nationally, teachers and school personnel in New Mexico generally reported positive experiences.

Can the National Guard address school discipline?

The National Guard’s mission includes responding to domestic emergencies. Members of the guard are part-time service members who maintain civilian lives. Some are students themselves in colleges and universities. Does this mission and training position the National Guard to respond to incidents of student misbehavior and school violence?

On the one hand, New Mexico’s pandemic experience shows the National Guard could be a stopgap to staffing shortages in unusual circumstances. Similarly, the guards’ eventual role in ensuring student safety during school desegregation in Arkansas demonstrates their potential to address exceptional cases in schools, such as racially motivated mob violence. And, of course, many schools have had military personnel teaching and mentoring through Junior ROTC programs for years.

Those seeking to bring the National Guard to Brockton High School have made similar arguments. They note that staffing shortages have contributed to behavior problems.

One school board member stated: “I know that the first thought that comes to mind when you hear ‘National Guard’ is uniform and arms, and that’s not the case. They’re people like us. They’re educated. They’re trained, and we just need their assistance right now. … We need more staff to support our staff and help the students learn (and) have a safe environment.”

Yet, there are reasons to question whether calls for the National Guard are the best way to address school misconduct and behavior. First, the National Guard is a temporary measure that does little to address the underlying causes of student misbehavior and school violence.

Research has shown that students benefit from effective teaching, meaningful and sustained relationships with school personnel and positive school environments. Such educative and supportive environments have been linked to safer schools. National Guard members are not trained as educators or counselors and, as a temporary measure, would not remain in the school to establish durable relationships with students.

What is more, a military presence – particularly if uniformed or armed – may make students feel less welcome at school or escalate situations.

Schools have already seen an increase in militarization. For example, school police departments have gone so far as to acquire grenade launchers and mine-resistant armored vehicles.

Research has found that school police make students more likely to be suspended and to be arrested. Similarly, while a National Guard presence may address misbehavior temporarily, their presence could similarly result in students experiencing punitive or exclusionary responses to behavior.

Students deserve a solution other than the guard

School violence and disruptions are serious problems that can harm students. Unfortunately, schools and educators have increasingly viewed student misbehavior as a problem to be dealt with through suspensions and police involvement.

A number of people – from the NAACP to the local mayor and other members of the school board – have criticized Brockton’s request for the National Guard. Governor Maura Healey has said she will not deploy the guard to the school.

However, the case of Brockton High School points to real needs. Educators there, like in other schools nationally, are facing a tough situation and perceive a lack of support and resources.

Many schools need more teachers and staff. Students need access to mentors and counselors. With these resources, schools can better ensure educators are able to do their jobs without military intervention.

F. Chris Curran has received funding from the US Department of Justice, the Bureau of Justice Assistance, and the American Civil Liberties Union for work on school safety and discipline.

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Chinese migration to US is nothing new – but the reasons for recent surge at Southern border are

A gloomier economic outlook in China and tightening state control have combined with the influence of social media in encouraging migration.

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Chinese migrants wait for a boat after having walked across the Darien Gap from Colombia to Panama. AP Photo/Natacha Pisarenko

The brief closure of the Darien Gap – a perilous 66-mile jungle journey linking South American and Central America – in February 2024 temporarily halted one of the Western Hemisphere’s busiest migration routes. It also highlighted its importance to a small but growing group of people that depend on that pass to make it to the U.S.: Chinese migrants.

While a record 2.5 million migrants were detained at the United States’ southwestern land border in 2023, only about 37,000 were from China.

I’m a scholar of migration and China. What I find most remarkable in these figures is the speed with which the number of Chinese migrants is growing. Nearly 10 times as many Chinese migrants crossed the southern border in 2023 as in 2022. In December 2023 alone, U.S. Border Patrol officials reported encounters with about 6,000 Chinese migrants, in contrast to the 900 they reported a year earlier in December 2022.

The dramatic uptick is the result of a confluence of factors that range from a slowing Chinese economy and tightening political control by President Xi Jinping to the easy access to online information on Chinese social media about how to make the trip.

Middle-class migrants

Journalists reporting from the border have generalized that Chinese migrants come largely from the self-employed middle class. They are not rich enough to use education or work opportunities as a means of entry, but they can afford to fly across the world.

According to a report from Reuters, in many cases those attempting to make the crossing are small-business owners who saw irreparable damage to their primary or sole source of income due to China’s “zero COVID” policies. The migrants are women, men and, in some cases, children accompanying parents from all over China.

Chinese nationals have long made the journey to the United States seeking economic opportunity or political freedom. Based on recent media interviews with migrants coming by way of South America and the U.S.’s southern border, the increase in numbers seems driven by two factors.

First, the most common path for immigration for Chinese nationals is through a student visa or H1-B visa for skilled workers. But travel restrictions during the early months of the pandemic temporarily stalled migration from China. Immigrant visas are out of reach for many Chinese nationals without family or vocation-based preferences, and tourist visas require a personal interview with a U.S. consulate to gauge the likelihood of the traveler returning to China.

Social media tutorials

Second, with the legal routes for immigration difficult to follow, social media accounts have outlined alternatives for Chinese who feel an urgent need to emigrate. Accounts on Douyin, the TikTok clone available in mainland China, document locations open for visa-free travel by Chinese passport holders. On TikTok itself, migrants could find information on where to cross the border, as well as information about transportation and smugglers, commonly known as “snakeheads,” who are experienced with bringing migrants on the journey north.

With virtual private networks, immigrants can also gather information from U.S. apps such as X, YouTube, Facebook and other sites that are otherwise blocked by Chinese censors.

Inspired by social media posts that both offer practical guides and celebrate the journey, thousands of Chinese migrants have been flying to Ecuador, which allows visa-free travel for Chinese citizens, and then making their way over land to the U.S.-Mexican border.

This journey involves trekking through the Darien Gap, which despite its notoriety as a dangerous crossing has become an increasingly common route for migrants from Venezuela, Colombia and all over the world.

In addition to information about crossing the Darien Gap, these social media posts highlight the best places to cross the border. This has led to a large share of Chinese asylum seekers following the same path to Mexico’s Baja California to cross the border near San Diego.

Chinese migration to US is nothing new

The rapid increase in numbers and the ease of accessing information via social media on their smartphones are new innovations. But there is a longer history of Chinese migration to the U.S. over the southern border – and at the hands of smugglers.

From 1882 to 1943, the United States banned all immigration by male Chinese laborers and most Chinese women. A combination of economic competition and racist concerns about Chinese culture and assimilability ensured that the Chinese would be the first ethnic group to enter the United States illegally.

With legal options for arrival eliminated, some Chinese migrants took advantage of the relative ease of movement between the U.S. and Mexico during those years. While some migrants adopted Mexican names and spoke enough Spanish to pass as migrant workers, others used borrowed identities or paperwork from Chinese people with a right of entry, like U.S.-born citizens. Similarly to what we are seeing today, it was middle- and working-class Chinese who more frequently turned to illegal means. Those with money and education were able to circumvent the law by arriving as students or members of the merchant class, both exceptions to the exclusion law.

Though these Chinese exclusion laws officially ended in 1943, restrictions on migration from Asia continued until Congress revised U.S. immigration law in the Hart-Celler Act in 1965. New priorities for immigrant visas that stressed vocational skills as well as family reunification, alongside then Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping’s policies of “reform and opening,” helped many Chinese migrants make their way legally to the U.S. in the 1980s and 1990s.

Even after the restrictive immigration laws ended, Chinese migrants without the education or family connections often needed for U.S. visas continued to take dangerous routes with the help of “snakeheads.”

One notorious incident occurred in 1993, when a ship called the Golden Venture ran aground near New York, resulting in the drowning deaths of 10 Chinese migrants and the arrest and conviction of the snakeheads attempting to smuggle hundreds of Chinese migrants into the United States.

Existing tensions

Though there is plenty of precedent for Chinese migrants arriving without documentation, Chinese asylum seekers have better odds of success than many of the other migrants making the dangerous journey north.

An estimated 55% of Chinese asylum seekers are successful in making their claims, often citing political oppression and lack of religious freedom in China as motivations. By contrast, only 29% of Venezuelans seeking asylum in the U.S. have their claim granted, and the number is even lower for Colombians, at 19%.

The new halt on the migratory highway from the south has affected thousands of new migrants seeking refuge in the U.S. But the mix of push factors from their home country and encouragement on social media means that Chinese migrants will continue to seek routes to America.

And with both migration and the perceived threat from China likely to be features of the upcoming U.S. election, there is a risk that increased Chinese migration could become politicized, leaning further into existing tensions between Washington and Beijing.

Meredith Oyen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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