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A Royal Ascension (of Prices)

https://bondvigilantes.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/1-a-royal-ascension-of-prices-1024×576.pngSeventy years on from the crowning of Queen Elizabeth II,…

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Seventy years on from the crowning of Queen Elizabeth II, her son Charles III will ascend to the throne on Saturday 6 May. The coronation will mark the beginning of a reign that looks far different at the start to that of his mother’s, as we look at some of the key economic markers and graphs.

Fit for a King – The cost of your castle


Source: Nationwide, M&G (March 2023).

House hunters on the eve of King Charles’ coronation will be paying a princely sum for their new home in comparison to those 70 years ago. The average house price today is 130x higher than in 1953. The chart shows that prices maintained relatively flat for the first 10 years of the Queen’s reign, but have seen sharp rises in the last 30 years. Home ownership is also considerably higher than the last time that Britain had a king. The nation has been transformed from a nation of renters to a nation of homeowners, broadly, with 15 million of us owning our home compared to 4 million in 1952. However, to go back to the last time homes were as expensive relative to wages as they are today, you would have to travel back in time to 1876, when Queen Victoria wore the crown. Currently, the average British home is approximately 9x wages, which is more than double the ratio in 1952.

This could be of interest, your majesty


Source: Bloomberg (April 2023).

Up until the last year or two, many of us have become used to low, 2-3% inflation around the developed world. Following the bout of fiscal and monetary stimulus during and following the Covid pandemic things have changed of course, with CPI inflation currently in double digits.

As the chart above shows, however, while we may have become used to a relatively benign inflation environment for some time, periods of low inflation are perhaps the exception rather than the rule. The UK saw a number of more challenging inflation environments during parts of Queen Elizabeth’s reign, particularly in the 70s, 80s and 90s.

And, while a Bank of England interest rate of 4.25% is the highest we have seen in a while, over Elizabeth II’s reign interest rates hit a high of 17% (1979). The low was 0.1% (2020).


Source: ONS (April 2023).

The important question now is where will inflation go from here? There are a number of long-term trends, such as technology (e.g. better price discovery through online shopping, which provides some downward pressure on prices), globalisation (e.g. the flow of cheaper labour and goods into developed economies) and demographics (ageing populations) which have helped keep inflation low for the past few decades. These forces still remain strong.  Then again, could something be changing?  Globalisation, for example, is one of these macro trends which could be reversing, with geopolitical tensions running high, and an effort in many economies to relocate to jobs closer to home. 

The Royal Household


Sources: This is Money (May 2022), ONS (Feb 2023)

Household costs have also seen a rise, but spending patterns have also changed. Britain is no longer a nation of smokers, with only 1% of spending going on tobacco in comparison to 6% in the 1950s. However, drinking habits have largely remained stable, with spending on alcohol only dropping 1% to 2%. Those still enjoying a pint of beer are paying a lot more for it though. The graphic above demonstrates the relative costs of a pint of draught lager. Although Britain may be more fashion conscious today, Britons are spending less of their income on clothing. Clothing accounted for a tenth of spending in 1952, but this has now fallen to 4% as clothing has become more affordable.

The basket of goods used to calculate the inflation rate has changed over the past 70 years as life in Britain has embraced strides forward in technology. It has been out with the sowing machine, table wringer, writing paper and ink. Meanwhile, it has been in with the fridge/freezer, security camera, smartphone handset and PCs. There have also been changes in views on health. Pipe tobacco was a staple with which Brits would have celebrated the coronation of the Queen, but now the e-cigarette has taken the spotlight. There have been changes in fashion sense too – no longer are the corset and smocked frock components of the basket! There are many items in the basket that would have seemed to be the stuff of make believe had you described them to those constructing the basket in 1953. Television subscription packages, package holidays and various takeaways comprise the 2023 basket, along with university tuition fees!

Long live the King, and his subjects


Source: United Nations (April 2023).

Long live the King – well most people in Britain today can hope for the same. Life expectancy has risen by more than 13 years over the reign of Elizabeth and now stands at 81.77. The increase in life expectancy as well as medical advances has created the ageing population that the UK has today. This has knock on implications onto the economy and brings political decisions into question such as where to set the state pension age, which recently came under the spotlight in the background of the cost of living crisis. At the last coronation, the average person would only be able to enjoy their state pension for just over three years. By comparison, those just beginning their retirement today would on average draw their state pension for about 16 years. This large increase bears heavy on the welfare state, particularly given that the state pension accounts for approx. 42% of welfare spending

A Not so Royal (Strong)Mint


Source: Bloomberg (May 2023).

£1 invested in gold would be worth £5593 today. It is noteworthy that gold prices remained very stable until 1971 when Nixon abandoned the Bretton Woods system, whereby the Dollar was pegged to the price of gold. As shown in the chart, the price of gold subsequently increases significantly over the following 50 years, so it could be argued that gold investors have President Nixon to thank for their healthy returns! Interestingly, there is a clear correlation in the stability of the GBP-USD rate until the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, showing the impact of this global arrangement. After the fall of Bretton Woods, the chart shows that the Pound is a currency that has been waning as a currency of global importance. If Charles III were to sell the Imperial Crown today and spend the proceeds on a holiday to the US, his Sterling wouldn’t go as far as it would if his mother had done the same after her coronation!


Source: Bank of England/Bloomberg (April 2023).

Indebted to the King… or rather the government indebted to investors!

This chart shows that both monarchs ascended to the throne with the Debt to GDP ratio in a similar position. However, the trends are in opposite direction, with Debt to GDP coming down sharply following very high levels of indebtedness in the wake of World War II. History shows us that the ratio rises following times of national crisis which dictate a need for a significant increase in government spending. We see in the chart that prior to the World Wars, debt to GDP was highest during the period of the Napoleonic Wars. War is expensive, and historically this is what prompted large increases in the ratio. Charles III is coronated following a national crisis of a different kind. The Global Financial Crisis and Covid have caused the national debt to increase sharply and recently the ratio has surpassed 100% once again after 55 years with the ratio in double digits.


Source: ukpublicspending.co.uk (May 2023).

Conclusion

In conclusion, Charles III is to be crowned King of the United Kingdom in a nation that is very different to the country his mother became monarch of in 1953. Indeed, judging by some economic indicators, the UK may look in a similar state. Debt to GDP is in a similar condition, albeit the trends are in opposite directions, and the base rate is akin to that of 1953. However, 2023 sees a UK where the citizens are living lives that are completely different to those walking the streets 70 years prior. The basket of goods which drives the inflation measure is a much larger and vastly different basket including goods and services that our predecessors could not possibly envisage. We are living longer and healthier lives, but the roofs over our heads are costing much more than they once did. Not to mention that a pint of beer in the pub to celebrate on Saturday will cost you much more than it did in 1953! The coronation will be a national celebration, although it is clear that the UK is not the global superpower that it once was. A country that was losing its influence when Elizabeth came to the throne, but the evidence demonstrates that sterling is not a formidable force and that the Dollar is the currency of the day. What will these charts show by the time the next coronation comes round?

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Bolsonaro Indicted By Brazilian Police For Falsifying Covid-19 Vaccine Records

Bolsonaro Indicted By Brazilian Police For Falsifying Covid-19 Vaccine Records

Federal police in Brazil have indicted former President Jair…

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March 19, 2024

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Bolsonaro Indicted By Brazilian Police For Falsifying Covid-19 Vaccine Records

Federal police in Brazil have indicted former President Jair Bolsonaro for falsifying his Covid-19 vaccine card in order to travel to the United States and elsewhere during the pandemic.

Federal prosecutors will review the indictment and decide whether to pursue the case - which would be the first time the former president has faced criminal charges.

According to the indictment, Bolsonaro ordered a top deputy to obtain falsified Covid-19 vaccine records of himself and his 13-year-old daughter in late 2022, right before he flew to Florida for a three-month stay following his election loss.

Brazilian police are also waiting to hear back from the US DOJ on whether Bolsonaro used said cards to enter the United States, which would open him up to further criminal charges, the NY Times reports.

Bolsonaro has repeatedly claimed not to have received the Covid-19 vaccine, but denies any involvement in a plan to falsify his vaccination records. A previous investigation by Brazil's comptroller general concluded that Bolsonaro's vaccination records were false.

The records show that Bolsonaro, a COVID-19 skeptic who publicly opposed the vaccine, received a dose of the immunizer in a public healthcare center in Sao Paulo in July 2021. [ZH: hilarious, Reuters calling the vaccine an 'immunizer.']

The investigation concluded, however, that the former president had left the city the previous day and didn't leave Brasilia until three days later, according to a statement.

The nurse listed in the records as having applied the vaccine on Bolsonaro denied doing so and was no longer working at the center. The listed vaccine lot was also not available on that date, the comptroller general's office said. -Reuters

"It's a selective investigation. I'm calm, I don't owe anything," Bolsonaro told Reuters. "The world knows that I didn't take the vaccine."

During the pandemic, Bolsonaro panned the vaccine - and instead insisted on alternative treatments such as Ivermectin, which has antiviral properties against Covid-19. For this, he was investigated by Brazil's congress, which recommended that the former president be charged with "crimes against humanity," among other things, for his actions during the pandemic.

In May, Brazilian police raided Bolsonaro's home, confiscating his cell phone and arresting one of his closest aides and two of his security cards in connection to the vaccine record investigation.

Brazil's electoral court ruled that Bolsonaro can't run for public office until 2030 after he suggested that the country's voting system was rigged. For that, he has to sit out the 2026 election.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/19/2024 - 11:00

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International

This gambling tech stock is future-proofing the world’s casinos

Supported by the universal thrill of a quick payout and the need for leisure, gambling stocks make a compelling case for long-term returns.
The post This…

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Supported by the universal human thrill of a quick payout, and the need for leisure and entertainment to bring enjoyment to adult life, casinos will remain essential spaces for people to dream and play for the foreseeable future, making gambling stocks a prospective space to look for long-term returns.

According to Research and Markets, the global casino industry was valued at US$157.5 billion in 2022, and it will grow to US$224.1 billion by 2030 at a compound annual growth rate of 4.5 per cent. This trend includes:

Approximately 100 million gamblers in the United States, who generated US$66.5 billion in revenue in 2023, a 10 per cent gain from 2022, which itself was a record year A little fewer than 20 million gamblers in Canada, who generated about C$15 billion in revenue in 2023 A global addressable market of thousands of casinos, and more than 4.2 billion people who gamble at least once every year, according to a 2016 study by Casino.org

The main challenge with attracting these billions through casino doors is they sway heavily toward middle age. The mean age of U.S. casino visitors has hovered around 50 for the past decade, with a similar trend across the world, forcing casinos to attract younger, tech-savvy customers, many with less gambling experience, to continue growing profits for their stakeholders over the long term.

Investors seeking exposure to a leadership position in building the bridge between casinos and the next generation of gamblers should evaluate Jackpot Digital (TSXV:JJ). The Vancouver-based company is a manufacturer of dealerless electronic table games that deliver immersive experiences tailored to the digital age, while earning casinos attractive returns on investment.

The gambling technology stock benefits from no direct competition in the dealerless poker space, with orders spanning North America, Europe, Asia, Africa and the Caribbean, a long-established presence with major cruise ship brands, such as Carnival, Princess Cruises and Holland America, and a growing land-based presence with orders or ongoing installations across 12 U.S. states. Its highlight partnership to date is a master services agreement with Penn Entertainment, the country’s largest regional gaming operator with 43 properties across 20 states.

Jackpot Digital’s differentiated technology and well-rounded management team are at the heart of its success in landing several blue-chip casino gaming companies as customers.

Jackpot Blitz

The gambling technology stock’s flagship product, Jackpot Blitz, is a dealerless poker table featuring three of the world’s most popular variations – Texas Hold’ em, Omaha, and Five-Card-Omaha – brought to life through slick 4k graphics on a 75-inch touchscreen, and offered in three formats – pot-limit, no-limit and fixed-limit – designed to attract a diversity of revenue from casual to experienced players.

Spokesperson and NFL championship-winning coach Jimmy Johnson explains the benefits of the Jackpot Blitz. Source: Jackpot Digital.

The table also comes equipped with house-banked mini-games, including blackjack, baccarat and video poker, as well as side bets on the main poker game, such as Bet the Flop, all of which keep players engaged and entertained between, and even during, poker hands. The stunning Jackpot Blitz machine also offers multi-venue “Bad Beat” jackpot functionality, allowing casinos to offer a “Poker Powerball” with massive Jackpots, further enhancing the attractiveness of Jackpot Blitz to new players.

It’s by striking a balance between the needs of the modern gambler, and efficiency and profitability that in-person operators couldn’t hope to match – unless they ordered the machine for themselves – that Jackpot Digital has earned itself the top spot in dealerless poker.

Player benefits

When a veteran or novice gambler takes a seat at the Jackpot Blitz, his or her experience begins with an easy-to-use interface, laid out in a modern and stylish design, programmed to respond to hand gestures that bring real casino play into the digital age, including card bending and chip jingling.

Source: Jackpot Digital.

The table’s intuitive controls, combined with instant payouts and its dealerless nature, translate into faster game play, which maximizes playing time and player excitement, while minimizing human error and the intimidation new gamblers might feel about approaching an analog poker table. The gambling technology stock’s in-house development team is also constantly working on new games to keep content fresh, with a special focus on bringing international games and regional versions of poker to casino audiences in Asia, South America and the Indian subcontinent.

As hands are laid down and pots pile up, players can also track game stats in real time, which inform future strategy and enhance the thrill of the moment with an added element of competition.

Operator benefits

From an operator’s perspective, a floor of automated gaming tables can meaningfully and instantly reduce casino staff expenditures and management pain points, while avoiding wage inflation, labour shortages and supply costs.

The Blitz is no slouch on revenue either, dealing more hands per hour, resulting in higher revenue and higher profitability, which is further enhanced by onboard side bets and mini-games that can be played while players are engaged in a poker hand.

The Jackpot Blitz’s economics are attractive to operators thanks to its ability to accommodate non-stop play, while monetizing downtime through side games and bets. While a human dealer must spend time shuffling, interacting with players, and consulting with colleagues, the Jackpot Blitz can accept wagers 100 per cent of the time, making sure gamblers get the action they came for and operators see a return on their investment.

Source: Jackpot Digital.

Beyond gaming revenue, casinos are further incentivized to onboard the Jackpot Blitz because of its fully customizable advertising functions, including logos, card backs, chips and felt colors, all of which bolster casino culture and enable the pursuit of revenue from third-party advertising partners.

The Blitz ties its value proposition together by generating automatic reports – including demographics and consumer behaviour through a rewards card system – and plugging directly into most back-end management systems, saving casinos the hassle of manual tracking, while also minimizing tampering, money-laundering and theft through the use of isolated servers.

Whether it’s streamlining the player experience or putting automation at the service of operators’ bottom lines, Jackpot Digital’s flagship product is positioned to create value, and plenty of it.

Jackpot Digital’s path to profitability

After existing as an exclusively cruise-ship-based operation since 2015, Jackpot Digital suffered a steep decline in revenue during the COVID pandemic, falling from C$2.18 million in 2019 to C$0.42 million in 2021.

Management quickly pivoted in the face of uncertainty, redesigning the Blitz to execute on a land-based expansion strategy – backed by Gaming Labs International certification in fall 2023 – which is bringing about a successful turnaround after the re-emergence of the casino business. Revenue more than tripled to C$1.43 million in 2022, and reached C$1.57 million through three quarters of 2023, with the company expecting to ramp up significant recurring revenue after it installs several dozen machines currently in its backlog.

The Jackpot Blitz electronic gaming table in action. Source: Jackpot Digital.

The first installation of land-ready Jackpot Blitz machines is now completed at the Jackson Rancheria Casino in California, as the company announced today. The three-machine installation marks a new era of growth for the company, having announced 25 Blitz deals since November 2021 (slide 12), with many more across Canada and the United States in the works, in addition to a strong pipeline in Asia and Europe.

“Jackpot Digital could be a profitable company right now if it only focused on care and maintenance of the revenues it currently generates. But that’s not why we’re here,” Mathieu McDonald, Vice President of Corporate Development at Jackpot Digital, said in a recent interview with Stockhouse. “We intend to scale up to many multiples of the tables we have out right now, with the potential for up to 2,000 tables over the next three to five years.”

According to McDonald, the company is fielding three to five inquiries per week about the Blitz from casinos around the world that recognize the machines’ first-mover advantage in dealerless poker and potential expansion into other games in need of automation.

Jackpot Digital’s ambitious plan of action is supported by a management team of proven gambling, finance, advertising and legal professionals, many of which have been serving Jackpot stakeholders for more than two decades.

A long-tenured management team

The management team behind Jackpot Digital is led by Jake Kalpakian, who has served as president and chief executive officer since 1999, including under the gambling technology stock’s former incarnation as Las Vegas From Home.com Entertainment Inc. Kalpakian brings more than 30 years of experience managing small-cap publicly listed companies, granting him a steady hand when it comes to maneuvering through the volatility of the economic cycle.

Kalpakian’s efforts are supported by three directors whose well-rounded expertise positions Jackpot Digital for long-term sustainable growth:

Gregory T. McFarlane, a director at Jackpot Digital since 1999, previously ran an independent advertising firm and holds a degree in mathematics from the University of Toronto. McFarlane is also a co-founder of the popular Control Your Cash personal finance website. Chief financial officer Neil Spellman, a director at the company since 2002, boasts an almost two-decade track record as vice president at Wall Street firm Smith Barney, where he developed a multi-industry understanding of the journey to profitability. Finally, Alan Artunian, a director since 2017, currently serves as CEO of Nice Guy Holdings, a corporate and legal consulting company advising clients across a diversity of sectors.

Guided by a strategic management team, and benefiting from a macro-trend toward casino automation, Jackpot Digital is on course to ride a wave of millions of gamblers looking for an elegant, tech-informed alternative to traditional in-person play.

A multi-bagger opportunity

The Jackpot Digital opportunity sets up savvy investors who recognize the soundness of the company’s value proposition. The tremendous risk/reward value of Jackpot Digital gives investors the opportunity to ride the macro-trend toward casino automation, as deals for the Blitz keep pouring in, the company adds games to its portfolio, and the global casino industry adds hundreds of billions in revenue through this decade.

Join the discussion: Find out what everybody’s saying about this gambling technology stock on the Jackpot Digital Bullboard.

This is sponsored content issued on behalf of Jackpot Digital, please see full disclaimer here.

The post This gambling tech stock is future-proofing the world’s casinos appeared first on The Market Online Canada.

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International

Gates-backed PhIII study tuberculosis vaccine study gets underway

A large study of an experimental vaccine for the world’s biggest infectious disease has finally kicked off in South Africa.
The Bill & Melinda Gates…

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March 19, 2024

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A large study of an experimental vaccine for the world’s biggest infectious disease has finally kicked off in South Africa.

The Bill & Melinda Gates Medical Research Institute (MRI) will test a tuberculosis vaccine’s ability to prevent latent infections from causing potentially deadly lung disease. Last summer the nonprofit said it would foot $400 million of the estimated $550 million cost of running the 20,000-person Phase III trial.

It’s a pivotal moment for a vaccine whose origins date back 25 years when scientists identified two proteins that triggered strong immunity to the bacterium that causes tuberculosis. A fusion of those proteins, paired with the tree bark-derived adjuvant that helps power GSK’s shingles shot, comprise the so-called M72 vaccine.

Thomas Scriba

After decades of failures in the field, the vaccine impressed scientists in 2018 when GSK found that it was 54% efficacious at preventing lung disease in a 3,600-person Phase IIb study.

But the Big Pharma decided that a full-blown trial was too expensive to conduct on its own. Gates MRI stepped in to license the vaccine in early 2020, right before the Covid pandemic shifted global vaccine priorities towards the coronavirus, further stalling the tuberculosis shot.

“There’s been frustration that it’s taken so long to get this trial up and running,” Thomas Scriba, deputy director of immunology for the South African Tuberculosis Vaccine Initiative, told Endpoints News last summer.

At last, the vaccine is getting a chance to prove itself in a bigger study. If successful, it could lead to the first new shot for tuberculosis in over a century.

Emilio Emini, CEO of the Gates MRI, told Endpoints that the initial results may come in roughly four to six years. “Hopefully this will galvanize a refocus on TB,” he said. “It’s been ignored for many, many years. We can’t ignore it anymore.”

A substantial impact

Even though an existing vaccine helps protect babies and children against severe tuberculosis, the bacterium responsible for the disease still causes roughly 10 million new cases and 500,000 deaths each year.

Emilio Emini

By vaccinating adolescents and adults who test positive for infections but don’t have symptoms of lung disease, the Gates MRI hopes the shot will help prevent mild infections from becoming severe ones, curtail transmission of the bug, which is predominantly driven by people with lung disease, and reduce deaths.

“The impact would be substantial,” Emini said. But he cautioned that the biology behind mild and severe diseases is still mysterious. “The reality is that no one really knows what keeps it under control.”

The study, which will take place at 60 sites across seven countries, will include some people who are not infected with tuberculosis to ensure that the vaccine is safe in that broader population.

“Having to pre-test everybody is not going to make the vaccine easy to deliver,” Emini said. If the vaccine is ultimately approved, it will likely be used in targeted communities with high tuberculosis, rather than across a whole country, he added. “In practice, you would immunize everybody in those populations.”

Emini described the Gates MRI’s rights to the vaccine as “close to a worldwide license.” GSK retained rights to commercialize the vaccine in certain countries but declined to specify which ones.

A spokesperson for GSK said that the company “has around 30 assets under development specifically for global health … none of which are expected to generate significant return on investment.”

“It is not sustainable or practical in the longer term for GSK to deliver all of these alone. So we continue to work on M72, but in partnership with others,” the spokesperson added.

If the shot works, Emini said that the Gates MRI will sublicense it to a manufacturer that will be responsible for making and marketing the vaccine. The details are still being worked out, he noted.

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