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A pose-mapping technique could remotely evaluate patients with cerebral palsy

It can be a hassle to get to the doctor’s office. And the task can be especially challenging for parents of children with motor disorders such as cerebral…

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It can be a hassle to get to the doctor’s office. And the task can be especially challenging for parents of children with motor disorders such as cerebral palsy, as a clinician must evaluate the child in person on a regular basis, often for an hour at a time. Making it to these frequent evaluations can be expensive, time-consuming, and emotionally taxing.

Credit: Image: MIT News, figure figures courtesy of Hermano Krebs, et al

It can be a hassle to get to the doctor’s office. And the task can be especially challenging for parents of children with motor disorders such as cerebral palsy, as a clinician must evaluate the child in person on a regular basis, often for an hour at a time. Making it to these frequent evaluations can be expensive, time-consuming, and emotionally taxing.

MIT engineers hope to alleviate some of that stress with a new method that remotely evaluates patients’ motor function. By combining computer vision and machine-learning techniques, the method analyzes videos of patients in real-time and computes a clinical score of motor function based on certain patterns of poses that it detects in video frames. 

The researchers tested the method on videos of more than 1,000 children with cerebral palsy. They found the method could process each video and assign a clinical score that matched with over 70 percent accuracy what a clinician had previously determined during an in-person visit. 

The video analysis can be run on a range of mobile devices. The team envisions that patients can be evaluated on their progress simply by setting up their phone or tablet to take a video as they move about their own home. They could then load the video into a program that would quickly analyze the video frames and assign a clinical score, or level of progress. The video and the score could then be sent to a doctor for review. 

The team is now tailoring the approach to evaluate children with metachromatic leukodystrophy — a rare genetic disorder that affects the central and peripheral nervous system. They also hope to adapt the method to assess patients who have experienced a stroke. 

“We want to reduce a little of patients’ stress by not having to go to the hospital for every evaluation,” says Hermano Krebs, principal research scientist at MIT’s Department of Mechanical Engineering. “We think this technology could potentially be used to remotely evaluate any condition that affects motor behavior.”

Krebs and his colleagues will present their new approach at the IEEE Conference on Body Sensor Networks in October. The study’s MIT authors are first author Peijun Zhao, co-principal investigator Moises Alencastre-Miranda, Zhan Shen, and Ciaran O’Neill, along with David Whiteman and Javier Gervas-Arruga of Takeda Development Center Americas, Inc.

Network training

At MIT, Krebs develops robotic systems that physically work with patients to help them regain or strengthen motor function. He has also adapted the systems to gauge patients’ progress and predict what therapies could work best for them. While these technologies have worked well, they are significantly limited in their accessibility: Patients have to travel to a hospital or facility where the robots are in place.  

“We asked ourselves, how could we expand the good results we got with rehab robots to a ubiquitous device?” Krebs recalls. “As smartphones are everywhere, our goal was to take advantage of their capabilities to remotely assess people with motor disabilities, so that they could be evaluated anywhere.”

The researchers looked first to computer vision and algorithms that estimate human movements. In recent years, scientists have developed pose estimation algorithms that are designed to take a video — for instance, of a girl kicking a soccer ball — and translate her movements into a corresponding series of skeleton poses, in real-time. The resulting sequence of lines and dots can be mapped to coordinates that scientists can further analyze.

Krebs and his colleagues aimed to develop a method to analyze skeleton pose data of patients with cerebral palsy — a disorder that has traditionally been evaluated along the Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS), a five-level scale that represents a child’s general motor function. (The lower the number, the higher the child’s mobility.) 

The team worked with a publicly available set of skeleton pose data that was produced by Stanford University’s Neuromuscular Biomechanics Laboratory. This dataset comprised videos of more than 1,000 children with cerebral palsy. Each video showed a child performing a series of exercises in a clinical setting, and each video was tagged with a GMFCS score that a clinician assigned the child after the in-person assessment. The Stanford group ran the videos through a pose estimation algorithm to generate skeleton pose data, which the MIT group then used as a starting point for their study. 

The researchers then looked for ways to automatically decipher patterns in the cerebral palsy data that are characteristic of each clinical motor function level. They started with a Spatial-Temporal Graph Convolutional Neural Network — a machine-learning process that trains a computer to process spatial data that changes over time, such as a sequence of skeleton poses, and assign a classification.

Before the team applied the neural network to cerebral palsy, they utilized a model that had been pretrained on a more general dataset, which contained videos of healthy adults performing various daily activities like walking, running, sitting, and shaking hands. They took the backbone of this pretrained model and added to it a new classification layer, specific to the clinical scores related to cerebral palsy. They fine-tuned the network to recognize distinctive patterns within the movements of children with cerebral palsy and accurately classify them within the main clinical assessment levels.

They found that the pretrained network learned to correctly classify children’s mobility levels, and it did so more accurately than if it were trained only on the cerebral palsy data. 

“Because the network is trained on a very large dataset of more general movements, it has some ideas about how to extract features from a sequence of human poses,” Zhao explains. “While the larger dataset and the cerebral palsy dataset can be different, they share some common patterns of human actions and how those actions can be encoded.”

The team test-ran their method on a number of mobile devices, including various smartphones, tablets, and laptops, and found that most devices could successfully run the program and generate a clinical score from videos, in close to real-time. 

The researchers are now developing an app, which they envision parents and patients could one day use to automatically analyze videos of patients, taken in the comfort of their own environment. The results could then be sent to a doctor for further evaluation. The team is also planning to adapt the method to evaluate other neurological disorders. 

“In the future, this might also help us predict how patients would respond to interventions sooner,” Krebs says. “Because we could evaluate them more often, to see if an intervention is having an impact.”

This research was supported by Takeda Development Center Americas, Inc.

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Written by Jennifer Chu, MIT News

Paper: “Motor Function Assessment of Children with Cerebral Palsy using Monocular Video”

 https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/152149


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Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more

New Zillow research suggests the spring home shopping season may see a second wave this summer if mortgage rates fall
The post Homes listed for sale in…

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  • A Zillow analysis of 2023 home sales finds homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more. 
  • The best time to list a home for sale is a month later than it was in 2019, likely driven by mortgage rates.
  • The best time to list can be as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York and Philadelphia. 

Spring home sellers looking to maximize their sale price may want to wait it out and list their home for sale in the first half of June. A new Zillow® analysis of 2023 sales found that homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more, a $7,700 boost on a typical U.S. home.  

The best time to list consistently had been early May in the years leading up to the pandemic. The shift to June suggests mortgage rates are strongly influencing demand on top of the usual seasonality that brings buyers to the market in the spring. This home-shopping season is poised to follow a similar pattern as that in 2023, with the potential for a second wave if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates midyear or later. 

The 2.3% sale price premium registered last June followed the first spring in more than 15 years with mortgage rates over 6% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. The high rates put home buyers on the back foot, and as rates continued upward through May, they were still reassessing and less likely to bid boldly. In June, however, rates pulled back a little from 6.79% to 6.67%, which likely presented an opportunity for determined buyers heading into summer. More buyers understood their market position and could afford to transact, boosting competition and sale prices.

The old logic was that sellers could earn a premium by listing in late spring, when search activity hit its peak. Now, with persistently low inventory, mortgage rate fluctuations make their own seasonality. First-time home buyers who are on the edge of qualifying for a home loan may dip in and out of the market, depending on what’s happening with rates. It is almost certain the Federal Reserve will push back any interest-rate cuts to mid-2024 at the earliest. If mortgage rates follow, that could bring another surge of buyers later this year.

Mortgage rates have been impacting affordability and sale prices since they began rising rapidly two years ago. In 2022, sellers nationwide saw the highest sale premium when they listed their home in late March, right before rates barreled past 5% and continued climbing. 

Zillow’s research finds the best time to list can vary widely by metropolitan area. In 2023, it was as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York. Thirty of the top 35 largest metro areas saw for-sale listings command the highest sale prices between May and early July last year. 

Zillow also found a wide range in the sale price premiums associated with homes listed during those peak periods. At the hottest time of the year in San Jose, homes sold for 5.5% more, a $88,000 boost on a typical home. Meanwhile, homes in San Antonio sold for 1.9% more during that same time period.  

 

Metropolitan Area Best Time to List Price Premium Dollar Boost
United States First half of June 2.3% $7,700
New York, NY First half of July 2.4% $15,500
Los Angeles, CA First half of May 4.1% $39,300
Chicago, IL First half of June 2.8% $8,800
Dallas, TX First half of June 2.5% $9,200
Houston, TX Second half of April 2.0% $6,200
Washington, DC Second half of June 2.2% $12,700
Philadelphia, PA First half of July 2.4% $8,200
Miami, FL First half of June 2.3% $12,900
Atlanta, GA Second half of June 2.3% $8,700
Boston, MA Second half of May 3.5% $23,600
Phoenix, AZ First half of June 3.2% $14,700
San Francisco, CA Second half of February 4.2% $50,300
Riverside, CA First half of May 2.7% $15,600
Detroit, MI First half of July 3.3% $7,900
Seattle, WA First half of June 4.3% $31,500
Minneapolis, MN Second half of May 3.7% $13,400
San Diego, CA Second half of April 3.1% $29,600
Tampa, FL Second half of June 2.1% $8,000
Denver, CO Second half of May 2.9% $16,900
Baltimore, MD First half of July 2.2% $8,200
St. Louis, MO First half of June 2.9% $7,000
Orlando, FL First half of June 2.2% $8,700
Charlotte, NC Second half of May 3.0% $11,000
San Antonio, TX First half of June 1.9% $5,400
Portland, OR Second half of April 2.6% $14,300
Sacramento, CA First half of June 3.2% $17,900
Pittsburgh, PA Second half of June 2.3% $4,700
Cincinnati, OH Second half of April 2.7% $7,500
Austin, TX Second half of May 2.8% $12,600
Las Vegas, NV First half of June 3.4% $14,600
Kansas City, MO Second half of May 2.5% $7,300
Columbus, OH Second half of June 3.3% $10,400
Indianapolis, IN First half of July 3.0% $8,100
Cleveland, OH First half of July  3.4% $7,400
San Jose, CA First half of June 5.5% $88,400

 

The post Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more appeared first on Zillow Research.

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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Mortgage rates fall as labor market normalizes

Jobless claims show an expanding economy. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

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Everyone was waiting to see if this week’s jobs report would send mortgage rates higher, which is what happened last month. Instead, the 10-year yield had a muted response after the headline number beat estimates, but we have negative job revisions from previous months. The Federal Reserve’s fear of wage growth spiraling out of control hasn’t materialized for over two years now and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9%. For now, we can say the labor market isn’t tight anymore, but it’s also not breaking.

The key labor data line in this expansion is the weekly jobless claims report. Jobless claims show an expanding economy that has not lost jobs yet. We will only be in a recession once jobless claims exceed 323,000 on a four-week moving average.

From the Fed: In the week ended March 2, initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits were flat, at 217,000. The four-week moving average declined slightly by 750, to 212,250


Below is an explanation of how we got here with the labor market, which all started during COVID-19.

1. I wrote the COVID-19 recovery model on April 7, 2020, and retired it on Dec. 9, 2020. By that time, the upfront recovery phase was done, and I needed to model out when we would get the jobs lost back.

2. Early in the labor market recovery, when we saw weaker job reports, I doubled and tripled down on my assertion that job openings would get to 10 million in this recovery. Job openings rose as high as to 12 million and are currently over 9 million. Even with the massive miss on a job report in May 2021, I didn’t waver.

Currently, the jobs openings, quit percentage and hires data are below pre-COVID-19 levels, which means the labor market isn’t as tight as it once was, and this is why the employment cost index has been slowing data to move along the quits percentage.  

2-US_Job_Quits_Rate-1-2

3. I wrote that we should get back all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022. At the time this would be a speedy labor market recovery, and it happened on schedule, too

Total employment data

4. This is the key one for right now: If COVID-19 hadn’t happened, we would have between 157 million and 159 million jobs today, which would have been in line with the job growth rate in February 2020. Today, we are at 157,808,000. This is important because job growth should be cooling down now. We are more in line with where the labor market should be when averaging 140K-165K monthly. So for now, the fact that we aren’t trending between 140K-165K means we still have a bit more recovery kick left before we get down to those levels. 




From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing.

Here are the jobs that were created and lost in the previous month:

IMG_5092

In this jobs report, the unemployment rate for education levels looks like this:

  • Less than a high school diploma: 6.1%
  • High school graduate and no college: 4.2%
  • Some college or associate degree: 3.1%
  • Bachelor’s degree or higher: 2.2%
IMG_5093_320f22

Today’s report has continued the trend of the labor data beating my expectations, only because I am looking for the jobs data to slow down to a level of 140K-165K, which hasn’t happened yet. I wouldn’t categorize the labor market as being tight anymore because of the quits ratio and the hires data in the job openings report. This also shows itself in the employment cost index as well. These are key data lines for the Fed and the reason we are going to see three rate cuts this year.

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