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3 Big Dividend Stocks Yielding 7% — or More; Evercore Says ‘Buy’

3 Big Dividend Stocks Yielding 7% — or More; Evercore Says ‘Buy’

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In the first half of 2020, many companies have cut back on their dividend payments, slashing or suspending them to conserve cash against the downturn. That trend appeared to reverse itself – or at least, to start to reverse itself – in August, when 13 companies announced dividend increases while only 2 announced cuts. Is this a signal that Q3 will show rebounding sentiment toward dividend and buyback policies? The recessionary pressure is easing; and dividends are a powerful attractor for cautious investors.

Looking at the current situation from Evercore ISI, market strategist Dennis DeBusschere believes the worse is over, saying, “[A] sharp drop in cash returns is unlikely [in 2h20.]” He believes that companies will continue, albeit slowly, to restore both dividends and buyback policies – but cautions that investors should not expect a return to pre-pandemic levels for until at least 2022.

“Though a recovery back to pre-pandemic levels is not likely for at least two years, the negative impact on high cash return names and income strategies should continue to stabilize through year end,” DeBusschere opined.

Following DeBusschere’s lead, Evercore’s stock analysts have been tagging high-yield dividend payers as likely prospects for investors looking to buy in. According to the TipRanks data, these are Buy-rated stocks, with at least a 7% dividend yield and upwards of 10% upside for the year ahead.

Columbia Property Trust (CXP)

The first stock on today’s dividend list is a real estate investment trust, Columbia Property Trust. Columbia holds a portfolio exceeding 6 million square feet of office space in New York, San Francisco, and Washington DC, with smaller investments in Boston, Mass. New York and San Fran were hit hard- by coronavirus and the lockdown policies implemented to halt its spread. That could have badly hurt the company- but Columbia’s 97% lease occupancy and long-term leases (the average term remaining is 6 years) provided a level of insulation.

That can be seen by CXP’s performance in 1H20. The company revenues and earning both grow sequentially in the first and second quarters of the year. Finishing the half, the top line reached $79.4 million for the second quarter, and Q2 EPS came in at 40 cents, well above the 35-cent forecast. In a key marker of the company’s fundamental strength, Columbia reported 97.2% success in rent collection, despite the corona pandemic.

The strong quarterly results are a welcome contrast to the share performance. CXP fell sharply in the first quarter, during the market’s mid-winter swoon, and has yet to recover.

The financial performance was the key, as far as the company’s dividend policy. In August, the company declared the Q3 payment, sent out on September 15, of 21 cents per common share. This was the fourth quarter in a row with the dividend at this level, and the annualized payment of 84 cents per share give a strong yield of 7.8%. CXP has a four-year history of gradual dividend increases.

Analyst Sheila McGrath, writing for Evercore, points out the obvious pressures in CXP’s office-space niche: “Sentiment to the office sector with work from home concerns has pressured valuations and increased Betas for the office names.” In analyzing the company’s particular situation, however, she also points out a clear strategy for continued success, saying, “CXP has high occupancy and limited near term rollovers on the horizon. Importantly, the majority of rollover in 2020 is at rents that are substantially below market. Consequently, we expect CXP to work with existing tenants to maximize renewals and minimize downside in the current uncertain environment.”

To this end, McGrath gives CXP an Outperform (i.e. Buy) rating, with a $15 price target indicating room for 39% upside growth. (To watch McGrath’s track record, click here)

Columbia Property Trust has a Strong Buy rating from the analyst consensus, based on 3 Buys and 1 Hold set in recent months. The stock’s share price is $10.77, and the average price target, at $15.50, is slightly higher than McGrath allows, and suggests an upside potential of 44%. (See CXP stock analysis on TipRanks)

AllianceBernstein (AB)

Next up is an asset management stock, AllianceBernstein. AB provides both investment services, both research and management, for retail investors and high-net worth individuals around the world. The firm boasts over $640 billion in total assets under management.

AllianceBernstein saw 1H20 results that were the opposite of CXP’s above. The company’s share performance saw a large rebound after the February market collapse, and is up 96% from its March trough. That positive result was not reflected in the financial reports during the half. Both quarters saw sequential declines at the top and bottom lines, with the Q2 numbers coming in at 61 cents EPS and $63.2 million in revenue. Even with the decline in 2020, however, EPS was still up 9% year-over-year.

Management at AB has a history of both keeping the dividend reliable, not missing a payment, and of regularly adjusting the payment to keep it affordable. They have kept that policy during the corona crisis. The current payment is 61 cents per common share, and while this is down from the 85 cents paid out in February, it still yields 8.9% for investors.

John Dunn, writing the review of AB for Evercore, was impressed by the firm’s ability to grow during the corona pandemic.

“A repeat of positive flows in both the retail & inst’l channels, setting up an impressive inflow month: AB’s month-end AUM of $643bn was above our / Street quarter-end estimates of $619bn / $618bn. AB saw 3% higher m/m AUM, on market gains in tandem with organic growth which we’ve now seen in 6-of-8 months so far in ’20,” Dunn noted.

Dunn gives AB shares a price target of $32, suggesting a one-year upside of 9.5% and supporting his Outperform (i.e. Buy) rating. (To watch Dunn’s track record, click here)

Overall, AllianceBernstein shares, with a 2 recent Buy reviews, have a Moderate Buy rating from the analyst consensus. The shares have an average price target set at $30.50, which implies an upside of 11% from the current trading price of $10.77. (See AB stock analysis on TipRanks)

MGM Growth Properties (MGP)

With the last stock on our list today, we move back to the REIT sector. MGM Growth Properties focuses on entertainment and leisure properties, with a portfolio of 13 destinations in 8 states, mainly casinos and luxury hotels, totaling over 27,000 rentable rooms.

As can be imagined, the corona crisis has not been kind to a luxury resort company; social distancing rules and restrictions on commerce have put a damper on both the casino and hotel industries. EPS for each quarter of 1H20 came in at just 56 cents – down from 58 cents in 4Q19 and 59 cents 3Q19. In addition, the 2020 results have come in well below the forecasts. MGP took moves in the second quarter to protect itself from the decline in earnings, with an issue of senior notes worth $800 million.

Despite the shock to its business niche, MGP shares showed a strong bounce back from the market crash earlier in the year. The stock is up 119% from its lowest point.

The mixed results of the recent months, and the uncertain future during this ‘corona time,’ has not derailed MGP’s dividend policy. The company has been gradually growing the payment for the past 4 years, and raised it again for the June payment this year. The current dividend payout is 48.75 cents per common share, or $1.95 annually. The yield is robust, at 7%, or nearly 3.5x the average found among S&P-listed stocks.

Evercore’s Steve Swaka acknowledges weaknesses in MGP’s position, but also points out that the company has a powerful ally in sister-company MGM: “As we have stated at other times recently, although prior to COVID many investors had viewed MGP’s relationship with MGM as a net-detriment to the investment thesis, under the current circumstances it’s hard to see where this has not turned out to be a net-positive.”

Overall, Swaka rates MGP shares an Outperform (i.e. Buy) along with a $34 price target. This figure indicates room for 21% growth in the year ahead. (To watch Swaka’s track record, click here)

The analyst consensus rating on MGP shares is a Strong Buy, based on 5 Buy reviews and a single Hold set in recent weeks. The stock’s $28.50 share price and $33 average price target make the one-year upside 15.5%. (See MGP stock analysis on TipRanks)

To find good ideas for dividend stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.

The post 3 Big Dividend Stocks Yielding 7% -- or More; Evercore Says ‘Buy’ appeared first on TipRanks Financial Blog.

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Government

Harvard Medical School Professor Was Fired Over Not Getting COVID Vaccine

Harvard Medical School Professor Was Fired Over Not Getting COVID Vaccine

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A…

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Harvard Medical School Professor Was Fired Over Not Getting COVID Vaccine

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A Harvard Medical School professor who refused to get a COVID-19 vaccine has been terminated, according to documents reviewed by The Epoch Times.

Martin Kulldorff, epidemiologist and statistician, at his home in Ashford, Conn., on Feb. 11, 2022. (Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times)

Martin Kulldorff, an epidemiologist, was fired by Mass General Brigham in November 2021 over noncompliance with the hospital’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate after his requests for exemptions from the mandate were denied, according to one document. Mr. Kulldorff was also placed on leave by Harvard Medical School (HMS) because his appointment as professor of medicine there “depends upon” holding a position at the hospital, another document stated.

Mr. Kulldorff asked HMS in late 2023 how he could return to his position and was told he was being fired.

You would need to hold an eligible appointment with a Harvard-affiliated institution for your HMS academic appointment to continue,” Dr. Grace Huang, dean for faculty affairs, told the epidemiologist and biostatistician.

She said the lack of an appointment, combined with college rules that cap leaves of absence at two years, meant he was being terminated.

Mr. Kulldorff disclosed the firing for the first time this month.

“While I can’t comment on the specifics due to employment confidentiality protections that preclude us from doing so, I can confirm that his employment agreement was terminated November 10, 2021,” a spokesperson for Brigham and Women’s Hospital told The Epoch Times via email.

Mass General Brigham granted just 234 exemption requests out of 2,402 received, according to court filings in an ongoing case that alleges discrimination.

The hospital said previously, “We received a number of exemption requests, and each request was carefully considered by a knowledgeable team of reviewers.

A lot of other people received exemptions, but I did not,” Mr. Kulldorff told The Epoch Times.

Mr. Kulldorff was originally hired by HMS but switched departments in 2015 to work at the Department of Medicine at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, which is part of Mass General Brigham and affiliated with HMS.

Harvard Medical School has affiliation agreements with several Boston hospitals which it neither owns nor operationally controls,” an HMS spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an email. “Hospital-based faculty, such as Mr. Kulldorff, are employed by one of the affiliates, not by HMS, and require an active hospital appointment to maintain an academic appointment at Harvard Medical School.”

HMS confirmed that some faculty, who are tenured or on the tenure track, do not require hospital appointments.

Natural Immunity

Before the COVID-19 vaccines became available, Mr. Kulldorff contracted COVID-19. He was hospitalized but eventually recovered.

That gave him a form of protection known as natural immunity. According to a number of studies, including papers from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, natural immunity is better than the protection bestowed by vaccines.

Other studies have found that people with natural immunity face a higher risk of problems after vaccination.

Mr. Kulldorff expressed his concerns about receiving a vaccine in his request for a medical exemption, pointing out a lack of data for vaccinating people who suffer from the same issue he does.

I already had superior infection-acquired immunity; and it was risky to vaccinate me without proper efficacy and safety studies on patients with my type of immune deficiency,” Mr. Kulldorff wrote in an essay.

In his request for a religious exemption, he highlighted an Israel study that was among the first to compare protection after infection to protection after vaccination. Researchers found that the vaccinated had less protection than the naturally immune.

“Having had COVID disease, I have stronger longer lasting immunity than those vaccinated (Gazit et al). Lacking scientific rationale, vaccine mandates are religious dogma, and I request a religious exemption from COVID vaccination,” he wrote.

Both requests were denied.

Mr. Kulldorff is still unvaccinated.

“I had COVID. I had it badly. So I have infection-acquired immunity. So I don’t need the vaccine,” he told The Epoch Times.

Dissenting Voice

Mr. Kulldorff has been a prominent dissenting voice during the COVID-19 pandemic, countering messaging from the government and many doctors that the COVID-19 vaccines were needed, regardless of prior infection.

He spoke out in an op-ed in April 2021, for instance, against requiring people to provide proof of vaccination to attend shows, go to school, and visit restaurants.

The idea that everybody needs to be vaccinated is as scientifically baseless as the idea that nobody does. Covid vaccines are essential for older, high-risk people and their caretakers and advisable for many others. But those who’ve been infected are already immune,” he wrote at the time.

Mr. Kulldorff later co-authored the Great Barrington Declaration, which called for focused protection of people at high risk while removing restrictions for younger, healthy people.

Harsh restrictions such as school closures “will cause irreparable damage” if not lifted, the declaration stated.

The declaration drew criticism from Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Rochelle Walensky, who became the head of the CDC, among others.

In a competing document, Dr. Walensky and others said that “relying upon immunity from natural infections for COVID-19 is flawed” and that “uncontrolled transmission in younger people risks significant morbidity(3) and mortality across the whole population.”

“Those who are pushing these vaccine mandates and vaccine passports—vaccine fanatics, I would call them—to me they have done much more damage during this one year than the anti-vaxxers have done in two decades,” Mr. Kulldorff later said in an EpochTV interview. “I would even say that these vaccine fanatics, they are the biggest anti-vaxxers that we have right now. They’re doing so much more damage to vaccine confidence than anybody else.

Surveys indicate that people have less trust now in the CDC and other health institutions than before the pandemic, and data from the CDC and elsewhere show that fewer people are receiving the new COVID-19 vaccines and other shots.

Support

The disclosure that Mr. Kulldorff was fired drew criticism of Harvard and support for Mr. Kulldorff.

The termination “is a massive and incomprehensible injustice,” Dr. Aaron Kheriaty, an ethics expert who was fired from the University of California–Irvine School of Medicine for not getting a COVID-19 vaccine because he had natural immunity, said on X.

The academy is full of people who declined vaccines—mostly with dubious exemptions—and yet Harvard fires the one professor who happens to speak out against government policies.” Dr. Vinay Prasad, an epidemiologist at the University of California–San Francisco, wrote in a blog post. “It looks like Harvard has weaponized its policies and selectively enforces them.”

A petition to reinstate Mr. Kulldorff has garnered more than 1,800 signatures.

Some other doctors said the decision to let Mr. Kulldorff go was correct.

“Actions have consequence,” Dr. Alastair McAlpine, a Canadian doctor, wrote on X. He said Mr. Kulldorff had “publicly undermine[d] public health.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/16/2024 - 21:00

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International

“Extreme Events”: US Cancer Deaths Spiked In 2021 And 2022 In “Large Excess Over Trend”

"Extreme Events": US Cancer Deaths Spiked In 2021 And 2022 In "Large Excess Over Trend"

Cancer deaths in the United States spiked in 2021…

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"Extreme Events": US Cancer Deaths Spiked In 2021 And 2022 In "Large Excess Over Trend"

Cancer deaths in the United States spiked in 2021 and 2022 among 15-44 year-olds "in large excess over trend," marking jumps of 5.6% and 7.9% respectively vs. a rise of 1.7% in 2020, according to a new preprint study from deep-dive research firm, Phinance Technologies.

Algeria, Carlos et. al "US -Death Trends for Neoplasms ICD codes: C00-D48, Ages 15-44", ResearchGate, March. 2024 P. 7

Extreme Events

The report, which relies on data from the CDC, paints a troubling picture.

"We show a rise in excess mortality from neoplasms reported as underlying cause of death, which started in 2020 (1.7%) and accelerated substantially in 2021 (5.6%) and 2022 (7.9%). The increase in excess mortality in both 2021 (Z-score of 11.8) and 2022 (Z-score of 16.5) are highly statistically significant (extreme events)," according to the authors.

That said, co-author, David Wiseman, PhD (who has 86 publications to his name), leaves the cause an open question - suggesting it could either be a "novel phenomenon," Covid-19, or the Covid-19 vaccine.

"The results indicate that from 2021 a novel phenomenon leading to increased neoplasm deaths appears to be present in individuals aged 15 to 44 in the US," reads the report.

The authors suggest that the cause may be the result of "an unexpected rise in the incidence of rapidly growing fatal cancers," and/or "a reduction in survival in existing cancer cases."

They also address the possibility that "access to utilization of cancer screening and treatment" may be a factor - the notion that pandemic-era lockdowns resulted in fewer visits to the doctor. Also noted is that "Cancers tend to be slowly-developing diseases with remarkably stable death rates and only small variations over time," which makes "any temporal association between a possible explanatory factor (such as COVID-19, the novel COVID-19 vaccines, or other factor(s)) difficult to establish."

That said, a ZeroHedge review of the CDC data reveals that it does not provide information on duration of illness prior to death - so while it's not mentioned in the preprint, it can't rule out so-called 'turbo cancers' - reportedly rapidly developing cancers, the existence of which has been largely anecdotal (and widely refuted by the usual suspects).

While the Phinance report is extremely careful not to draw conclusions, researcher "Ethical Skeptic" kicked the barn door open in a Thursday post on X - showing a strong correlation between "cancer incidence & mortality" coinciding with the rollout of the Covid mRNA vaccine.

Phinance principal Ed Dowd commented on the post, noting that "Cancer is suddenly an accelerating growth industry!"

Continued:

Bottom line - hard data is showing alarming trends, which the CDC and other agencies have a requirement to explore and answer truthfully - and people are asking #WhereIsTheCDC.

We aren't holding our breath.

Wiseman, meanwhile, points out that Pfizer and several other companies are making "significant investments in cancer drugs, post COVID."

Phinance

We've featured several of Phinance's self-funded deep dives into pandemic data that nobody else is doing. If you'd like to support them, click here.

 

Tyler Durden Sat, 03/16/2024 - 16:55

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Government

“I Can’t Even Save”: Americans Are Getting Absolutely Crushed Under Enormous Debt Load

"I Can’t Even Save": Americans Are Getting Absolutely Crushed Under Enormous Debt Load

While Joe Biden insists that Americans are doing great…

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"I Can't Even Save": Americans Are Getting Absolutely Crushed Under Enormous Debt Load

While Joe Biden insists that Americans are doing great - suggesting in his State of the Union Address last week that "our economy is the envy of the world," Americans are being absolutely crushed by inflation (which the Biden admin blames on 'shrinkflation' and 'corporate greed'), and of course - crippling debt.

The signs are obvious. Last week we noted that banks' charge-offs are accelerating, and are now above pre-pandemic levels.

...and leading this increase are credit card loans - with delinquencies that haven't been this high since Q3 2011.

On top of that, while credit cards and nonfarm, nonresidential commercial real estate loans drove the quarterly increase in the noncurrent rate, residential mortgages drove the quarterly increase in the share of loans 30-89 days past due.

And while Biden and crew can spin all they want, an average of polls from RealClear Politics shows that just 40% of people approve of Biden's handling of the economy.

Crushed

On Friday, Bloomberg dug deeper into the effects of Biden's "envious" economy on Americans - specifically, how massive debt loads (credit cards and auto loans especially) are absolutely crushing people.

Two years after the Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates to tame prices, delinquency rates on credit cards and auto loans are the highest in more than a decade. For the first time on record, interest payments on those and other non-mortgage debts are as big a financial burden for US households as mortgage interest payments.

According to the report, this presents a difficult reality for millions of consumers who drive the US economy - "The era of high borrowing costs — however necessary to slow price increases — has a sting of its own that many families may feel for years to come, especially the ones that haven’t locked in cheap home loans."

The Fed, meanwhile, doesn't appear poised to cut rates until later this year.

According to a February paper from IMF and Harvard, the recent high cost of borrowing - something which isn't reflected in inflation figures, is at the heart of lackluster consumer sentiment despite inflation having moderated and a job market which has recovered (thanks to job gains almost entirely enjoyed by immigrants).

In short, the debt burden has made life under President Biden a constant struggle throughout America.

"I’m making the most money I've ever made, and I’m still living paycheck to paycheck," 40-year-old Denver resident Nikki Cimino told Bloomberg. Cimino is carrying a monthly mortgage of $1,650, and has $4,000 in credit card debt following a 2020 divorce.

Nikki CiminoPhotographer: Rachel Woolf/Bloomberg

"There's this wild disconnect between what people are experiencing and what economists are experiencing."

What's more, according to Wells Fargo, families have taken on debt at a comparatively fast rate - no doubt to sustain the same lifestyle as low rates and pandemic-era stimmies provided. In fact, it only took four years for households to set a record new debt level after paying down borrowings in 2021 when interest rates were near zero. 

Meanwhile, that increased debt load is exacerbated by credit card interest rates that have climbed to a record 22%, according to the Fed.

[P]art of the reason some Americans were able to take on a substantial load of non-mortgage debt is because they’d locked in home loans at ultra-low rates, leaving room on their balance sheets for other types of borrowing. The effective rate of interest on US mortgage debt was just 3.8% at the end of last year.

Yet the loans and interest payments can be a significant strain that shapes families’ spending choices. -Bloomberg

And of course, the highest-interest debt (credit cards) is hurting lower-income households the most, as tends to be the case.

The lowest earners also understandably had the biggest increase in credit card delinquencies.

"Many consumers are levered to the hilt — maxed out on debt and barely keeping their heads above water," Allan Schweitzer, a portfolio manager at credit-focused investment firm Beach Point Capital Management told Bloomberg. "They can dog paddle, if you will, but any uptick in unemployment or worsening of the economy could drive a pretty significant spike in defaults."

"We had more money when Trump was president," said Denise Nierzwicki, 69. She and her 72-year-old husband Paul have around $20,000 in debt spread across multiple cards - all of which have interest rates above 20%.

Denise and Paul Nierzwicki blame Biden for what they see as a gloomy economy and plan to vote for the Republican candidate in November.
Photographer: Jon Cherry/Bloomberg

During the pandemic, Denise lost her job and a business deal for a bar they owned in their hometown of Lexington, Kentucky. While they applied for Social Security to ease the pain, Denise is now working 50 hours a week at a restaurant. Despite this, they're barely scraping enough money together to service their debt.

The couple blames Biden for what they see as a gloomy economy and plans to vote for the Republican candidate in November. Denise routinely voted for Democrats up until about 2010, when she grew dissatisfied with Barack Obama’s economic stances, she said. Now, she supports Donald Trump because he lowered taxes and because of his policies on immigration. -Bloomberg

Meanwhile there's student loans - which are not able to be discharged in bankruptcy.

"I can't even save, I don't have a savings account," said 29-year-old in Columbus, Ohio resident Brittany Walling - who has around $80,000 in federal student loans, $20,000 in private debt from her undergraduate and graduate degrees, and $6,000 in credit card debt she accumulated over a six-month stretch in 2022 while she was unemployed.

"I just know that a lot of people are struggling, and things need to change," she told the outlet.

The only silver lining of note, according to Bloomberg, is that broad wage gains resulting in large paychecks has made it easier for people to throw money at credit card bills.

Yet, according to Wells Fargo economist Shannon Grein, "As rates rose in 2023, we avoided a slowdown due to spending that was very much tied to easy access to credit ... Now, credit has become harder to come by and more expensive."

According to Grein, the change has posed "a significant headwind to consumption."

Then there's the election

"Maybe the Fed is done hiking, but as long as rates stay on hold, you still have a passive tightening effect flowing down to the consumer and being exerted on the economy," she continued. "Those household dynamics are going to be a factor in the election this year."

Meanwhile, swing-state voters in a February Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll said they trust Trump more than Biden on interest rates and personal debt.

Reverberations

These 'headwinds' have M3 Partners' Moshin Meghji concerned.

"Any tightening there immediately hits the top line of companies," he said, noting that for heavily indebted companies that took on debt during years of easy borrowing, "there's no easy fix."

Tyler Durden Fri, 03/15/2024 - 18:00

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