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Computer aided engineering (CAE) market to grow by 7.87% Y-O-Y in 2023; Driven by the growth of the smartphone industry – Technavio

Computer aided engineering (CAE) market to grow by 7.87% Y-O-Y in 2023; Driven by the growth of the smartphone industry – Technavio
PR Newswire
NEW YORK, Feb. 8, 2023

NEW YORK, Feb. 8, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — Computer aided engineering (CAE) market in…

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Computer aided engineering (CAE) market to grow by 7.87% Y-O-Y in 2023; Driven by the growth of the smartphone industry - Technavio

PR Newswire

NEW YORK, Feb. 8, 2023

NEW YORK, Feb. 8, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Computer aided engineering (CAE) market insights -

  • Vendors: 15+, Including Altair Engineering Inc., ANSYS Inc., Autodesk Inc., Bentley Systems Inc., BETA CAE Systems, Cadence Design Systems Inc., Ceetron AS, COMSOL AB, Dassault Systemes SE, ESI Group SA, Fidesys LLC, Flow Sciences Inc., Hexagon AB, Parametric Designs and Solutions, PTC Inc., Seiko Epson Corp., Siemens AG, Simerics Inc., SimScale GmbH, Symscape, among others
  • Coverage: Parent market analysis; key drivers, major trends, and challenges; customer and vendor landscape; vendor product insights and recent developments; key vendors; and market positioning of vendors
  • Segments: Type (FEA and CFD), End-user (Automotive, Aerospace and defense, Electrical and electronics, and Others), and Geography (Europe, North America, APAC, South America, and Middle East and Africa)

To understand more about the computer aided engineering (CAE) market, request a sample report

In 2017, the computer aided engineering (CAE) market was valued at USD 5,285.40 million. From a regional perspective, APAC held the largest market share, valued at USD 1,065.69 million. The computer aided engineering (CAE) market size is estimated to grow by USD 4137.6 million from 2022 to 2027 at a CAGR of 9.04% according to Technavio.

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Computer aided engineering (CAE) market - Customer Landscape
To help companies evaluate and develop growth strategies, the report outlines –

  • Key purchase criteria
  • Adoption rates
  • Adoption lifecycle
  • Drivers of price sensitivity
  • For highlights on customer landscape analysis, download a sample!

Computer aided engineering (CAE) market - Vendor Insights

The growing competition in the market is compelling vendors to adopt various growth strategies such as promotional activities and spending on advertisements to improve the visibility of their services. Technavio report analyzes the market's competitive landscape and offers information on several market vendors including –

  • Altair Engineering Inc. - The company offers CAE named Altair Hyperworks with model structures, mechanisms, fluids, electromagnetics, electrical, embedded software, systems design, and manufacturing processes.
  • ANSYS Inc. - The company offers CAE Ansys Discovery with bolted structures, flow control devices, and electronic cooling.
  • Bentley Systems Inc. - The company offers CAE for 3D models of structural steel and 3D printing industries.
  • Cadence Design Systems Inc. - The company offers CAE solutions for various automotives under its brand named Numflo.

Computer aided engineering (CAE) market – Market Dynamics

Major Drivers – 

  • Growth of the smartphone industry
  • Increasing requirements for large-scale project management
  • Reduction in product design time and cost

KEY Challenges – 

  • Lack of awareness among end-users about developments in CFD
  • High cost of CAE software
  • Rapid technology changes

Drivers and challenges have an impact on market dynamics and can impact businesses. Find some insights from a sample report!

The computer aided engineering (CAE) market report provides critical information and factual data, with a qualitative and quantitative study of the market based on market drivers and limitations as well as future prospects.

What are the key data covered in this computer aided engineering (CAE) market report?

  • CAGR of the market during the forecast period
  • Detailed information on factors that will drive the growth of the computer aided engineering (CAE) market between 2023 and 2027
  • Precise estimation of the size of the computer aided engineering (CAE) market size and its contribution to the market in focus on the parent market
  • Accurate predictions about upcoming trends and changes in consumer behavior
  • Growth of the computer aided engineering (CAE) market industry across Europe, North America, APAC, South America, and Middle East and Africa
  • A thorough analysis of the market's competitive landscape and detailed information about vendors
  • Comprehensive analysis of factors that will challenge the growth of computer aided engineering (CAE) market vendors

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Computer Aided Engineering (CAE) Market Scope

Report Coverage

Details

Page number

184

Base year

2022

Historic period

2017-2021

Forecast period

2023-2027

Growth momentum & CAGR

Accelerate at a CAGR of 9.04%

Market growth 2023-2027

USD 4137.6 million

Market structure

Fragmented

YoY growth 2022-2023 (%)

7.87

Regional analysis

Europe, North America, APAC, South America, and Middle East and Africa

Performing market contribution

APAC at 44%

Key countries

US, China, Japan, Germany, and France

Competitive landscape

Leading Vendors, Market Positioning of Vendors, Competitive Strategies, and Industry Risks

Key companies profiled

Altair Engineering Inc., ANSYS Inc., Autodesk Inc., Bentley Systems Inc., BETA CAE Systems, Cadence Design Systems Inc., Ceetron AS, COMSOL AB, Dassault Systemes SE, ESI Group SA, Fidesys LLC, Flow Sciences Inc., Hexagon AB, Parametric Designs and Solutions, PTC Inc., Seiko Epson Corp., Siemens AG, Simerics Inc., SimScale GmbH, and Symscape

Market dynamics

Parent market analysis, market growth inducers and obstacles, fast-growing and slow-growing segment analysis, COVID-19 impact and recovery analysis and future consumer dynamics, and market condition analysis for the forecast period.

Customization purview

If our report has not included the data that you are looking for, you can reach out to our analysts and get segments customized.

Table of contents:

1 Executive Summary

  • 1.1 Market overview 
    • Exhibit 01: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Overview
    • Exhibit 02: Executive Summary – Data Table on Market Overview
    • Exhibit 03: Executive Summary – Chart on Global Market Characteristics
    • Exhibit 04: Executive Summary – Chart on Market by Geography
    • Exhibit 05: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by Type
    • Exhibit 06: Executive Summary – Chart on Market Segmentation by End-user
    • Exhibit 07: Executive Summary – Chart on Incremental Growth
    • Exhibit 08: Executive Summary – Data Table on Incremental Growth
    • Exhibit 09: Executive Summary – Chart on Vendor Market Positioning

2 Market Landscape

  • 2.1 Market ecosystem 
    • Exhibit 10: Parent market
    • Exhibit 11: Market Characteristics

3 Market Sizing

  • 3.1 Market definition 
    • Exhibit 12: Offerings of vendors included in the market definition
  • 3.2 Market segment analysis 
    • Exhibit 13: Market segments
  • 3.3 Market size 2022
  • 3.4 Market outlook: Forecast for 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 14: Chart on Global - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 15: Data Table on Global - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 16: Chart on Global Market: Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 17: Data Table on Global Market: Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)

4 Historic Market Size

  • 4.1 Global computer aided engineering (CAE) market 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 18: Historic Market Size – Data Table on Global computer aided engineering (CAE) market 2017 - 2021 ($ million)
  • 4.2 Type Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 19: Historic Market Size – Type Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ million)
  • 4.3 End-user Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 20: Historic Market Size – End-user Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ million)
  • 4.4 Geography Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 21: Historic Market Size – Geography Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ million)
  • 4.5 Country Segment Analysis 2017 - 2021 
    • Exhibit 22: Historic Market Size – Country Segment 2017 - 2021 ($ million)

5 Five Forces Analysis

  • 5.1 Five forces summary 
    • Exhibit 23: Five forces analysis - Comparison between 2022 and 2027
  • 5.2 Bargaining power of buyers 
    • Exhibit 24: Chart on Bargaining power of buyers – Impact of key factors 2022 and 2027
  • 5.3 Bargaining power of suppliers 
    • Exhibit 25: Bargaining power of suppliers – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.4 Threat of new entrants 
    • Exhibit 26: Threat of new entrants – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.5 Threat of substitutes 
    • Exhibit 27: Threat of substitutes – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.6 Threat of rivalry 
    • Exhibit 28: Threat of rivalry – Impact of key factors in 2022 and 2027
  • 5.7 Market condition 
    • Exhibit 29: Chart on Market condition - Five forces 2022 and 2027

6 Market Segmentation by Type

  • 6.1 Market segments 
    • Exhibit 30: Chart on Type - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 31: Data Table on Type - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.2 Comparison by Type 
    • Exhibit 32: Chart on Comparison by Type
    • Exhibit 33: Data Table on Comparison by Type
  • 6.3 FEA - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 34: Chart on FEA - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 35: Data Table on FEA - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 36: Chart on FEA - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 37: Data Table on FEA - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.4 CFD - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 38: Chart on CFD - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 39: Data Table on CFD - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 40: Chart on CFD - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 41: Data Table on CFD - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 6.5 Market opportunity by Type 
    • Exhibit 42: Market opportunity by Type ($ million)

7 Market Segmentation by End-user

  • 7.1 Market segments 
    • Exhibit 43: Chart on End-user - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 44: Data Table on End-user - Market share 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.2 Comparison by End-user 
    • Exhibit 45: Chart on Comparison by End-user
    • Exhibit 46: Data Table on Comparison by End-user
  • 7.3 Automotive - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 47: Chart on Automotive - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 48: Data Table on Automotive - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 49: Chart on Automotive - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 50: Data Table on Automotive - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.4 Aerospace and defense - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 51: Chart on Aerospace and defense - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 52: Data Table on Aerospace and defense - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 53: Chart on Aerospace and defense - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 54: Data Table on Aerospace and defense - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.5 Electrical and electronics - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 55: Chart on Electrical and electronics - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 56: Data Table on Electrical and electronics - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 57: Chart on Electrical and electronics - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 58: Data Table on Electrical and electronics - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.6 Others - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 59: Chart on Others - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 60: Data Table on Others - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 61: Chart on Others - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 62: Data Table on Others - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 7.7 Market opportunity by End-user 
    • Exhibit 63: Market opportunity by End-user ($ million)

8 Customer Landscape

  • 8.1 Customer landscape overview 
    • Exhibit 64: Analysis of price sensitivity, lifecycle, customer purchase basket, adoption rates, and purchase criteria

9 Geographic Landscape

  • 9.1 Geographic segmentation 
    • Exhibit 65: Chart on Market share by geography 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 66: Data Table on Market share by geography 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.2 Geographic comparison 
    • Exhibit 67: Chart on Geographic comparison
    • Exhibit 68: Data Table on Geographic comparison
  • 9.3 Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 69: Chart on Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 70: Data Table on Europe - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 71: Chart on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 72: Data Table on Europe - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.4 North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 73: Chart on North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 74: Data Table on North America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 75: Chart on North America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 76: Data Table on North America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.5 APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 77: Chart on APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 78: Data Table on APAC - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 79: Chart on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 80: Data Table on APAC - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.6 South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 81: Chart on South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 82: Data Table on South America - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 83: Chart on South America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 84: Data Table on South America - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.7 Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 
    • Exhibit 85: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 86: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 87: Chart on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 88: Data Table on Middle East and Africa - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.8 US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 89: Chart on US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 90: Data Table on US - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 91: Chart on US - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 92: Data Table on US - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.9 China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 93: Chart on China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 94: Data Table on China - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 95: Chart on China - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 96: Data Table on China - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.10 Germany - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 97: Chart on Germany - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 98: Data Table on Germany - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 99: Chart on Germany - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 100: Data Table on Germany - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.11 France - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 101: Chart on France - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 102: Data Table on France - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 103: Chart on France - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 104: Data Table on France - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.12 Japan - Market size and forecast 2022-2027
    • Exhibit 105: Chart on Japan - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 106: Data Table on Japan - Market size and forecast 2022-2027 ($ million)
    • Exhibit 107: Chart on Japan - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
    • Exhibit 108: Data Table on Japan - Year-over-year growth 2022-2027 (%)
  • 9.13 Market opportunity by geography 
    • Exhibit 109: Market opportunity by geography ($ million)

10 Drivers, Challenges, and Trends

  • 10.1 Market drivers
  • 10.2 Market challenges
  • 10.3 Impact of drivers and challenges 
    • Exhibit 110: Impact of drivers and challenges in 2022 and 2027
  • 10.4 Market trends

11 Vendor Landscape

  • 11.1 Overview
  • 11.2 Vendor landscape 
    • Exhibit 111: Overview on Criticality of inputs and Factors of differentiation
  • 11.3 Landscape disruption 
    • Exhibit 112: Overview on factors of disruption
  • 11.4 Industry risks 
    • Exhibit 113: Impact of key risks on business

12 Vendor Analysis

  • 12.1 Vendors covered 
    • Exhibit 114: Vendors covered
  • 12.2 Market positioning of vendors 
    • Exhibit 115: Matrix on vendor position and classification
  • 12.3 Altair Engineering Inc. 
    • Exhibit 116: Altair Engineering Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 117: Altair Engineering Inc. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 118: Altair Engineering Inc. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 119: Altair Engineering Inc. - Segment focus
  • 12.4 ANSYS Inc. 
    • Exhibit 120: ANSYS Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 121: ANSYS Inc. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 122: ANSYS Inc. - Key news
    • Exhibit 123: ANSYS Inc. - Key offerings
  • 12.5 Autodesk Inc. 
    • Exhibit 124: Autodesk Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 125: Autodesk Inc. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 126: Autodesk Inc. - Key news
    • Exhibit 127: Autodesk Inc. - Key offerings
  • 12.6 Bentley Systems Inc. 
    • Exhibit 128: Bentley Systems Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 129: Bentley Systems Inc. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 130: Bentley Systems Inc. - Key news
    • Exhibit 131: Bentley Systems Inc. - Key offerings
  • 12.7 Cadence Design Systems Inc. 
    • Exhibit 132: Cadence Design Systems Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 133: Cadence Design Systems Inc. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 134: Cadence Design Systems Inc. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 135: Cadence Design Systems Inc. - Segment focus
  • 12.8 Ceetron AS 
    • Exhibit 136: Ceetron AS - Overview
    • Exhibit 137: Ceetron AS - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 138: Ceetron AS - Key offerings
  • 12.9 COMSOL AB 
    • Exhibit 139: COMSOL AB - Overview
    • Exhibit 140: COMSOL AB - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 141: COMSOL AB - Key offerings
  • 12.10 Dassault Systemes SE 
    • Exhibit 142: Dassault Systemes SE - Overview
    • Exhibit 143: Dassault Systemes SE - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 144: Dassault Systemes SE - Key news
    • Exhibit 145: Dassault Systemes SE - Key offerings
  • 12.11 ESI Group SA 
    • Exhibit 146: ESI Group SA - Overview
    • Exhibit 147: ESI Group SA - Business segments
    • Exhibit 148: ESI Group SA - Key news
    • Exhibit 149: ESI Group SA - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 150: ESI Group SA - Segment focus
  • 12.12 Hexagon AB 
    • Exhibit 151: Hexagon AB - Overview
    • Exhibit 152: Hexagon AB - Business segments
    • Exhibit 153: Hexagon AB - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 154: Hexagon AB - Segment focus
  • 12.13 PTC Inc. 
    • Exhibit 155: PTC Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 156: PTC Inc. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 157: PTC Inc. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 158: PTC Inc. - Segment focus
  • 12.14 Seiko Epson Corp. 
    • Exhibit 159: Seiko Epson Corp. - Overview
    • Exhibit 160: Seiko Epson Corp. - Business segments
    • Exhibit 161: Seiko Epson Corp. - Key news
    • Exhibit 162: Seiko Epson Corp. - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 163: Seiko Epson Corp. - Segment focus
  • 12.15 Siemens AG 
    • Exhibit 164: Siemens AG - Overview
    • Exhibit 165: Siemens AG - Business segments
    • Exhibit 166: Siemens AG - Key news
    • Exhibit 167: Siemens AG - Key offerings
    • Exhibit 168: Siemens AG - Segment focus
  • 12.16 Simerics Inc. 
    • Exhibit 169: Simerics Inc. - Overview
    • Exhibit 170: Simerics Inc. - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 171: Simerics Inc. - Key offerings
  • 12.17 Symscape 
    • Exhibit 172: Symscape - Overview
    • Exhibit 173: Symscape - Product / Service
    • Exhibit 174: Symscape - Key offerings

13 Appendix

  • 13.1 Scope of the report
  • 13.2 Inclusions and exclusions checklist 
    • Exhibit 175: Inclusions checklist
    • Exhibit 176: Exclusions checklist
  • 13.3 Currency conversion rates for US$ 
    • Exhibit 177: Currency conversion rates for US$
  • 13.4 Research methodology 
    • Exhibit 178: Research methodology
    • Exhibit 179: Validation techniques employed for market sizing
    • Exhibit 180: Information sources
  • 13.5 List of abbreviations 
    • Exhibit 181: List of abbreviations
About Us

Technavio is a leading global technology research and advisory company. Their research and analysis focuses on emerging market trends and provides actionable insights to help businesses identify market opportunities and develop effective strategies to optimize their market positions. With over 500 specialized analysts, Technavio's report library consists of more than 17,000 reports and counting, covering 800 technologies, spanning across 50 countries. Their client base consists of enterprises of all sizes, including more than 100 Fortune 500 companies. This growing client base relies on Technavio's comprehensive coverage, extensive research, and actionable market insights to identify opportunities in existing and potential markets and assess their competitive positions within changing market scenarios.

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Email: media@technavio.com
Website: www.technavio.com/

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NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked…

Published

3 hours ago

on

March 11, 2024

By

NY Fed Finds Medium, Long-Term Inflation Expectations Jump Amid Surge In Stock Market Optimism

One month after the inflation outlook tracked by the NY Fed Consumer Survey extended their late 2023 slide, with 3Y inflation expectations in January sliding to a record low 2.4% (from 2.6% in December), even as 1 and 5Y inflation forecasts remained flat, moments ago the NY Fed reported that in February there was a sharp rebound in longer-term inflation expectations, rising to 2.7% from 2.4% at the three-year ahead horizon, and jumping to 2.9% from 2.5% at the five-year ahead horizon, while the 1Y inflation outlook was flat for the 3rd month in a row, stuck at 3.0%. 

The increases in both the three-year ahead and five-year ahead measures were most pronounced for respondents with at most high school degrees (in other words, the "really smart folks" are expecting deflation soon). The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons, while the median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at the one- and three-year ahead horizons and remained unchanged at the five-year ahead horizon.

Going down the survey, we find that the median year-ahead expected price changes increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3% for gas; decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 6.8% for the cost of medical care (its lowest reading since September 2020); decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 5.8% for the cost of a college education; and surprisingly decreased by 0.3 percentage point for rent to 6.1% (its lowest reading since December 2020), and remained flat for food at 4.9%.

We find the rent expectations surprising because it is happening just asking rents are rising across the country.

At the same time as consumers erroneously saw sharply lower rents, median home price growth expectations remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month at 3.0%.

Turning to the labor market, the survey found that the average perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job separations increased, while the perceived likelihood of finding a job (in the event of a job loss) declined. "The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily in the next 12 months also increased, by 1.8 percentage points to 19.5%."

Mean unemployment expectations - or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now - decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 36.1%, the lowest reading since February 2022. Additionally, the median one-year-ahead expected earnings growth was unchanged at 2.8%, remaining slightly below its 12-month trailing average of 2.9%.

Turning to household finance, we find the following:

  • The median expected growth in household income remained unchanged at 3.1%. The series has been moving within a narrow range of 2.9% to 3.3% since January 2023, and remains above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 2.7%.
  • Median household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%. The increase was driven by respondents with a high school degree or less.
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased to 9.3% from 8.9%.
  • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 26.1%, remaining below its 12-month trailing average of 30%.
  • Perceptions about households’ current financial situations deteriorated somewhat with fewer respondents reporting being better off than a year ago. Year-ahead expectations also deteriorated marginally with a smaller share of respondents expecting to be better off and a slightly larger share of respondents expecting to be worse off a year from now.
  • The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now increased by 1.4 percentage point to 38.9%.
  • At the same time, perceptions and expectations about credit access turned less optimistic: "Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated with a larger share of respondents reporting tighter conditions and a smaller share reporting looser conditions compared to a year ago."

Also, a smaller percentage of consumers, 11.45% vs 12.14% in prior month, expect to not be able to make minimum debt payment over the next three months

Last, and perhaps most humorous, is the now traditional cognitive dissonance one observes with these polls, because at a time when long-term inflation expectations jumped, which clearly suggests that financial conditions will need to be tightened, the number of respondents expecting higher stock prices one year from today jumped to the highest since November 2021... which incidentally is just when the market topped out during the last cycle before suffering a painful bear market.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/11/2024 - 12:40

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Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more

New Zillow research suggests the spring home shopping season may see a second wave this summer if mortgage rates fall
The post Homes listed for sale in…

Published

10 hours ago

on

March 11, 2024

By

  • A Zillow analysis of 2023 home sales finds homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more. 
  • The best time to list a home for sale is a month later than it was in 2019, likely driven by mortgage rates.
  • The best time to list can be as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York and Philadelphia. 

Spring home sellers looking to maximize their sale price may want to wait it out and list their home for sale in the first half of June. A new Zillow® analysis of 2023 sales found that homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more, a $7,700 boost on a typical U.S. home.  

The best time to list consistently had been early May in the years leading up to the pandemic. The shift to June suggests mortgage rates are strongly influencing demand on top of the usual seasonality that brings buyers to the market in the spring. This home-shopping season is poised to follow a similar pattern as that in 2023, with the potential for a second wave if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates midyear or later. 

The 2.3% sale price premium registered last June followed the first spring in more than 15 years with mortgage rates over 6% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. The high rates put home buyers on the back foot, and as rates continued upward through May, they were still reassessing and less likely to bid boldly. In June, however, rates pulled back a little from 6.79% to 6.67%, which likely presented an opportunity for determined buyers heading into summer. More buyers understood their market position and could afford to transact, boosting competition and sale prices.

The old logic was that sellers could earn a premium by listing in late spring, when search activity hit its peak. Now, with persistently low inventory, mortgage rate fluctuations make their own seasonality. First-time home buyers who are on the edge of qualifying for a home loan may dip in and out of the market, depending on what’s happening with rates. It is almost certain the Federal Reserve will push back any interest-rate cuts to mid-2024 at the earliest. If mortgage rates follow, that could bring another surge of buyers later this year.

Mortgage rates have been impacting affordability and sale prices since they began rising rapidly two years ago. In 2022, sellers nationwide saw the highest sale premium when they listed their home in late March, right before rates barreled past 5% and continued climbing. 

Zillow’s research finds the best time to list can vary widely by metropolitan area. In 2023, it was as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York. Thirty of the top 35 largest metro areas saw for-sale listings command the highest sale prices between May and early July last year. 

Zillow also found a wide range in the sale price premiums associated with homes listed during those peak periods. At the hottest time of the year in San Jose, homes sold for 5.5% more, a $88,000 boost on a typical home. Meanwhile, homes in San Antonio sold for 1.9% more during that same time period.  

 

Metropolitan Area Best Time to List Price Premium Dollar Boost
United States First half of June 2.3% $7,700
New York, NY First half of July 2.4% $15,500
Los Angeles, CA First half of May 4.1% $39,300
Chicago, IL First half of June 2.8% $8,800
Dallas, TX First half of June 2.5% $9,200
Houston, TX Second half of April 2.0% $6,200
Washington, DC Second half of June 2.2% $12,700
Philadelphia, PA First half of July 2.4% $8,200
Miami, FL First half of June 2.3% $12,900
Atlanta, GA Second half of June 2.3% $8,700
Boston, MA Second half of May 3.5% $23,600
Phoenix, AZ First half of June 3.2% $14,700
San Francisco, CA Second half of February 4.2% $50,300
Riverside, CA First half of May 2.7% $15,600
Detroit, MI First half of July 3.3% $7,900
Seattle, WA First half of June 4.3% $31,500
Minneapolis, MN Second half of May 3.7% $13,400
San Diego, CA Second half of April 3.1% $29,600
Tampa, FL Second half of June 2.1% $8,000
Denver, CO Second half of May 2.9% $16,900
Baltimore, MD First half of July 2.2% $8,200
St. Louis, MO First half of June 2.9% $7,000
Orlando, FL First half of June 2.2% $8,700
Charlotte, NC Second half of May 3.0% $11,000
San Antonio, TX First half of June 1.9% $5,400
Portland, OR Second half of April 2.6% $14,300
Sacramento, CA First half of June 3.2% $17,900
Pittsburgh, PA Second half of June 2.3% $4,700
Cincinnati, OH Second half of April 2.7% $7,500
Austin, TX Second half of May 2.8% $12,600
Las Vegas, NV First half of June 3.4% $14,600
Kansas City, MO Second half of May 2.5% $7,300
Columbus, OH Second half of June 3.3% $10,400
Indianapolis, IN First half of July 3.0% $8,100
Cleveland, OH First half of July  3.4% $7,400
San Jose, CA First half of June 5.5% $88,400

 

The post Homes listed for sale in early June sell for $7,700 more appeared first on Zillow Research.

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February Employment Situation

By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000…

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March 9, 2024

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By Paul Gomme and Peter Rupert

The establishment data from the BLS showed a 275,000 increase in payroll employment for February, outpacing the 230,000 average over the previous 12 months. The payroll data for January and December were revised down by a total of 167,000. The private sector added 223,000 new jobs, the largest gain since May of last year.

Temporary help services employment continues a steep decline after a sharp post-pandemic rise.

Average hours of work increased from 34.2 to 34.3. The increase, along with the 223,000 private employment increase led to a hefty increase in total hours of 5.6% at an annualized rate, also the largest increase since May of last year.

The establishment report, once again, beat “expectations;” the WSJ survey of economists was 198,000. Other than the downward revisions, mentioned above, another bit of negative news was a smallish increase in wage growth, from $34.52 to $34.57.

The household survey shows that the labor force increased 150,000, a drop in employment of 184,000 and an increase in the number of unemployed persons of 334,000. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5, the employment to population ratio decreased from 60.2 to 60.1 and the unemployment rate increased from 3.66 to 3.86. Remember that the unemployment rate is the number of unemployed relative to the labor force (the number employed plus the number unemployed). Consequently, the unemployment rate can go up if the number of unemployed rises holding fixed the labor force, or if the labor force shrinks holding the number unemployed unchanged. An increase in the unemployment rate is not necessarily a bad thing: it may reflect a strong labor market drawing “marginally attached” individuals from outside the labor force. Indeed, there was a 96,000 decline in those workers.

Earlier in the week, the BLS announced JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) data for January. There isn’t much to report here as the job openings changed little at 8.9 million, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively.

As has been the case for the last couple of years, the number of job openings remains higher than the number of unemployed persons.

Also earlier in the week the BLS announced that productivity increased 3.2% in the 4th quarter with output rising 3.5% and hours of work rising 0.3%.

The bottom line is that the labor market continues its surprisingly (to some) strong performance, once again proving stronger than many had expected. This strength makes it difficult to justify any interest rate cuts soon, particularly given the recent inflation spike.

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