The Speculative Investor

Latest Articles

No confirmation of a gold bull market, yet

The ‘true fundamentals’ began shifting in gold’s favour in October of last year and by early-December the fundamental backdrop was gold-bullish for the first time in almost a year. However, there is not yet confirmation of a new gold bull mark...

The Japanese government is still pegging the gold price

About five months ago I posted an article in response to stories that the Chinese government had pegged either the SDR-denominated gold price or the Yuan-denominated gold price. These stories were based on gold’s narrow trading range relative to t...

The Fed unwittingly will continue to tighten

The Fed probably will implement another 0.25% rate hike this week, but at the same time it probably will signal either an indefinite pause in its rate hiking or a slowing of its rate-hiking pace. The financial markets have already factored in such a...

The fundamental backdrop turns bullish for gold…almost

Apart from a 2-week period around the middle of the year, my Gold True Fundamentals Model (GTFM) has been bearish since mid-January 2018. There have been fluctuations along the way, but at no time since mid-January have the true fundamentals* been s...

Revisiting the gold-backed Yuan fantasy

[This is an excerpt from a commentary posted at TSI about three weeks ago] In an article titled “China’s monetary policy must change” Alasdair Macleod discusses a path that China’s government could take to make the Yuan gold-backed and thus ...