Capital Markets & Economic Analysis

For investors and traders who desire top quality, conflict free analysis of the capital markets and the economy based on the fundamentals and technicals that drive securities prices. Peter Richardson, CFA and author of Capital Markets & Economic Analysis, was the former chief investment officer and a former NYSE firm partner. He has 40 years experience in the field as analyst, economist, portfolio manager, trader, and CIO.

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Stock Market -- This Is A Little Odd

While folks debate the near term future of the market, I content myself with an oddity in themarket internals. The TRIN measures the amount of selling pressure in the market. A high TRINsignals heavy selling pressure and a low TRIN signals light sell...

SPX -- Update

According to my cyclical valuation work, I have the SPX as fairly valued at 2610 for 2018 at 2720through mid-2019. The modest increase in valuation product into next year reflects another yearof positive earnings direction offset by a reduction in th...

Stock Market -- Historic Overbought Deflates

Yeah, well it was a market that became one of the most overbought in history. The best the bullscould do was express some edginess the weekend before Groundhog Day (Feb.2). Little did folksknow that Punxatawny Phil  down in Pa. was not only forecast...

Stock Market -- More Amber Lights

As the SPX continues to surpass generational overbought records, I have a couple of moresignals to keep in mind. The SPX is now trading at a 13.4% premium to its 40 wk. movingaverage. This is not a record, but history shows that when the market excee...

US Dollar

I have been bullish on the dollar since the end of the deep recession of 2008-9. The long term viewwas that the dollar could rise from the deeply depressed low 70s level back then to the 100 levelby 2020. I did not posit faster economic growth than t...